thayer the south china sea and asean

8/7/2019 Thayer The South China Sea and ASEAN

1/20


2/20

South China Sea Time Line

2007 deteriora4on 200809 Chinese asser4veness 2010 Core issue/interna4onaliza4on 2010 China backs off

Fishing incidents with Vietnam declineNo observable pressure on US companiesResump4on of ASEANChina Joint Working Groupon Implemen4ng DOC


3/20

Na4onal Mari4me Strategy to

2010


4/20

Sansha County

level City, Hainan

Island [Paracels,

Zhongsha

(Macclesfield

Bank) and SpratlyIslands]

established

November 2007


5/20

An4China Student Demonstra4ons

Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City

on 9th and 16th Dec. 2007

Chinas Invasion Plan Postedon Chinese web sites in August

2008


6/20

Chinese Unilateral Fishing Ban

May 16-August 1, 2009


7/20

Extended Con4nental Shelf May 2009


8/20

ChinasResponse to

Claims for

ExtendedCon4nental

Shelf


9/20

USS George Washington Aug 2010

USS JohnD. Stennis

April 2009

USS Florida SSGN, Pacific

Command December 2009

USS George H.W. Bush Aug 2010


10/20

Vietnamese Naval Modernisa4on

BPS 500 Missile Boat

3 Gepardclass Guided Missile Frigates

12 Svetlyakclass Fast Aack Cra


11/20

China 5 SSBNs by

2010

Singapore 2 (AIP)

Malaysia 2

Indonesia 3?

Vietnam 6

Australia 12

US submarine redeployments to

Western PacificVietnam recently purchased six Project

636 diesel engine Kiloclass submarines


12/20

1st Joint Naval Engagement

Ac4vi4es (Aug 2010)

15th Anniversary of USVietnam Diploma4c Rela4ons

USS John S. McCain makes port call Da Nang


13/20

North Sea

Fleet anchorsat Fiery Cross

Reef


14/20

MarchApril 2010East Sea and North

Sea Fleets conductmajor exercises

beyond First Island

Chain

Vietnamesefishing cra

swarm around a

Chinese fishery

vessel in Spratlys

PLAN warshipsintervene


15/20

Vietnams Three Nos and the Offer of

Cam Ranh Bay

1. No military alliances2. No foreign military bases on Vietnamese

territory

3. No use of third countries to combatanother country


16/20

Interna4onalizing the South

China Sea Dispute

Core interest (March and May 2010) ShangriLa Dialogue (June) 3rd ASEAN Foreign Ministers Mee4ng (July) 17th ASEAN Regional Forum (July) 2nd U.S.ASEAN Leaders Mee4ng (September)


17/20

Interna4onalizing the South

China Sea Dispute

1st ADMM Plus mee4ng (October)ADSOM PlusExpert Working Groups

17th ASEAN Summit (October) ASEANChina Joint Working Group on

Implemen4ng the DOC reconvenes

President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyonosinterven4on re East Asia Summit


18/20

11th Party Congress

. Development goals and tasks for the201115 period

Overall goals set forth for the country in thenext five years are: enhance externalac4vi4es; firmly defend na4onalindependence, sovereignty and territorialintegrity; thus crea4ng a founda4on for thena4on to become a modernorientedindustrialised country by 2020.


19/20

11th Party Congress

The AsiaPacific, including Southeast Asia , willremain a region of dynamic development but alsocontain many factors possibly leading toinstabili4es. More territorial, sea and island

disputes will occur. New forces and intertwininginterests will take shape. ASEAN will con4nue tospeed up regional connec4vity and building acommunity with a more important role in the

region. However, many difficul4es and challengeslie ahead for the bloc.


20/20

11th Party Congress

Intensifying the na4onal defence andsecurity strength and power; maintaining

sociopoli4cal stability, independence,

sovereignty, unity, territorial integrity, socialorder and security; preven4ng and foiling all

schemes and plots of hos4le forces;

comprehensively and effec4vely carrying out

external ac4vi4es and proac4vely taking partin interna4onal integra4on.

thayer the south china sea and asean

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