thayer asean, arf and asean community part 2

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    ASEAN, the ARF and Pros ectsfor an ASEAN Community

    ar

    Emeritus Professor Carl ThayerPresentation to Security Studies (Regional)

    October 18, 2011

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    1st ARF Bangkok (1994)

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    o os ercons ruc ve a oguean consultation on

    political

    and

    security

    ssueso common n eres an

    concern;and

    tomakesignificantcontributionstoeffortstowardsconfidencebuilding

    andpreventive

    diplomacy in

    the

    Asia

    Pacificregion.

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    DecisionsoftheARFshallbemadethrough

    consensus

    after

    careful

    and

    extensive

    consultationsamongallparticipants.

    MoveatapacecomfortabletoallARF

    members

    ChairmanofARFisChairmanoftheASEANStandingCommittee

    ChairmansStatement

    after

    annual

    meeting

    Nonbinding

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    Thea roachshallbeevolutionar takin lace

    inthree

    broad

    stages,

    namely

    thepromotionofconfidencebuilding,

    developmentofpreventivediplomacyand

    elaborationofapproachestoconflicts. ,

    continuetodiscussmeansofimplementingconfidencebuilding.

    StageII,

    particularly

    where

    the

    subject

    matter

    overlap,canproceedintandem withStageI.

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    InterSessional Grou s Meetin s

    Mandates renewed annually

    1995

    97 ISM on Search and Rescue 199597 ISM on Peacekeeping

    199599 ISM on Disaster Relief

    resumed 2004

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    1995presentISGonConfidence

    BuildingMeasures

    Terrorism&TransnationalCrime

    Security

    presen

    on

    on

    Proliferation

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    eve opmento as cpr nc p es

    Comprehensiveapproachestosecurity

    Dialogueonsecurityperceptions

    Voluntarydefense

    policy

    statements

    AnnualSecurityOutlook Backgroundbriefingsonregionalsecurity

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    UNConventionalArmsRegister

    En ance contactsan ig eve visits

    Exchangesbetween

    military

    academies

    and

    sta co eges

    Annualseminarfordefenceofficials

    Observersatmilitaryexercises

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    Explorationof

    Regional

    Arms

    Register

    Maritimeinformation

    data

    base

    CooperativeapproachestoSLOCs

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    Maritimezones

    of

    cooperation

    (South

    ChinaSea

    Priornotificationmajormilitary

    Disclosurebyarmsmanufacturersand

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    Tohelp

    prevent

    disputes

    and

    conflicts

    from

    arisin betweenStatesthatcould otentiall

    poseathreattoregionalpeaceandstability;

    fromescalatingintoarmedconfrontation;and

    andconflictsontheregion.

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    ARFRegisters

    of

    Experts/Eminent

    ersons,

    AnnualSecurityOutlookand Voluntarybackgroundbriefingon

    re ionalsecurit issues

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    1.Requires

    diplomacy

    2.Noncoercive7.

    Conflicts

    between

    and

    amongstates

    3.Timely

    4.Re uires

    trust

    and

    8.Internationallaw,UN

    Charter,Five

    confidence

    5.Consultationand

    r nc p eso eace uCoexistenceandASEANTreat of

    consensus

    6.Voluntary

    Amityand

    Cooperation

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    C cloneNar is

    Ma

    2

    2008

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    Myanmar

    ASEANUNUN

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    Secretariat 10 Members

    Secretary SeniorGeneraChair

    Dip omat

    TechnicalMember Expert

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    enue ormu a era a oguean

    consultations

    Habitsofdialogueandconsultationson

    politicaland

    security

    issues

    WillingnessofARFparticipantstodiscuss

    awiderangeofsecurityissues

    multilaterally

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    cooperation, ,

    all

    ContinuingCBMsasfoundation

    n anc ng

    n ages

    etween

    rac

    anTrack2intheARFprocesses

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    Greaterparticipationbydefenseand

    military

    officials ARFISMsandISGs

    Networkingdevelopedamongnational

    securit

    defenseand

    militar

    officials

    Transparencythroughexchangeof

    publicationofwhitepapers

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    Prioritycooperationinfightagainst

    internationalterrorism

    and

    transnational

    crime

    Supportfornonproliferation,armscontrol,

    disarmament efforts

    Preventivediplomacytentativesteps

    u

    ro e

    ncon c

    reso u on

    un e y

    NorthKoreanuclearissues

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    th

    SeniorOfficials

    directed

    to

    draw

    up

    Preventative

    DiplomacyWorkPlan

    prioritytonontraditionalsecuritychallenges

    Explicit

    PD

    measures

    to

    promote

    peaceful

    escalatingintoarmedconflict

    Phase2istoaccompanythedevelopmentofthe

    ASEANPolitical

    Security

    Community

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    , ,

    Enhanced role of the ARF Chair

    ro a past, present an uture

    Chairs Friends of the Chair

    ARF Ex erts and Eminent Persons

    ASEAN Secretariat to assist - ARF Unit

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    ASEAN Community 2015

    T ree Pi ars

    Political- Socio-Security

    conom cCultural

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    I. PoliticalDevelopment

    II. ShapingandSharingNorms

    III. ConflictPrevention

    IV. ConflictResolution

    V. PostConflictPeaceBuildin

    VI. ImplementingMechanisms

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    Promotionof

    Ajust,

    democratic and

    harmonious

    Democraticinstitutionsandruleoflaw

    Peopletopeoplecontacts

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    1.StrengtheningTACregime

    2.

    Development

    of

    the

    ASEAN

    Charter3.ASEANTreatyofMutualLegalAssistance(MLA)

    Agreement

    4.ASEAN

    Extradition

    Treaty

    5.DeclarationonConduct(DOC)ofPartiesinthe

    SouthChinaSea

    6.ASEAN

    Convention

    on

    Counter

    Terrorism

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    on ence u ng easures

    PreventiveMeasures

    ARFprocess

    Respectforterritorialintegrity,sovereignty

    Cooperationreseparatistthreats

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    andescalation

    of

    conflicts

    EnhancedroleoftheARFChair

    implementationoftheConceptPaperonPreventive

    Di lomac

    establishmentof

    an

    Intersessional Support

    Group

    on

    PreventiveDiplomacy

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    Mechanism

    maintenanceofpeaceandsecurity

    Develo in su ortin initiatives

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    attained a sense of community or collective

    adopted formal or informal institutions and

    become integrated

    change

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    ASEAN, the ARF and Pros ectsfor an ASEAN Community

    ar

    Emeritus Professor Carl ThayerPresentation to Security Studies (Regional)

    October 18, 2011