thayer south china sea: asean between rising china and status quo america
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8/4/2019 Thayer South China Sea: ASEAN Between Rising China and Status Quo America
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Managing Conflict in the South China
Sea:
ASEAN
Between
a
Rising
C ina
and Status Quo America
Carlyle A. Thayer
Uppsala Forum on Peace, Democracy and
ust ce an ast s a rogramUniversity of Uppsala
,
September
12,
2011
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• Conflicting sovereignty claims
– na an energy secur ty
•China’s
rise
and
challenge
to
U.S.
primacy – Secure Sea Lanes of Communication (SLOC)
– Control beyond second island chain
• ASEAN’s assertion of centrality and regional
autonomy
8/4/2019 Thayer South China Sea: ASEAN Between Rising China and Status Quo America
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South
China
Seaclaimants:
•China
•
Taiwan•Vietnam
•The Philippines
•Ma aysia•Brunei
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UN Commission on Limits of Continental Shelf – May 13, 2009
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China’s 9‐dash
ne‐
s ape
ma la in
claim
to
over
o t e
Sea
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Binh Minh 02
Incident
Reed Bank
Incident
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•
contains
– 10 times more than its gas reserves
• na ooses a ou m on ons o o
annually or about 40% of its total offshore
pro uc on
ue
o
e
ac v es
o
coun r es
n
the South China Sea.
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•
800 deep‐water wells in the East Sea, Yellow
producing 500 million tons of oil by 2020.
reserves by 40% in next two decades
• etnam s omest c gas eman w tr p e y
2025 (World Bank)
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China’s Rise and
Challenge to U.S. Primacy
•
China’s
economy
will
overtake
the
U.S.• Military modernization
– Submarine fleet
– Anti‐carrier ballistic missile
• Anti‐access/area denial
• Yulin Naval Base, Hainan Island
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First
and
Second
Island
Chains
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8/4/2019 Thayer South China Sea: ASEAN Between Rising China and Status Quo America
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Base, Sanya
ug o
28
Feb
08
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Yulin Naval Base
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Secure
Sea Lanes of Communication
•
100,000
ships
transit
Straits
of
Malacca
annually
• >25% of world’s traded goods pass through
South China Sea
• 25% of all oil shipments carried by sea pass
.
mission cubic metres per day)
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SLOC Strategic Overview
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a nan
Island
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China’s ‘String of Pearls’
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ASEAN’s Assertion of Centrality and
Regional Autonomy
• Zone of Peace, Freedom and Neutrality (1971)
(1976)
• Declaration on Conduct of Parties in the South
China Sea (2002)
• ASEAN Regional Forum
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ASEAN’s Assertion of Centrality and
Regional Autonomy
ASEAN‐centric multilateralism
•
East Asia Summit expansion• ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting (ADMM)
• ADMM Plus
• Pursuit of Code of Conduct
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Derailing China’s ‘Peaceful
Development’?
•
Regional
“arms
dynamic”•
– Kilo submarines, Gepard frigates
– n ‐s p m ss es
• Force modernisation by the Philippines
• U.S. military activities in China’s EEZs
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8/4/2019 Thayer South China Sea: ASEAN Between Rising China and Status Quo America
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Derailing China’s ‘Peaceful
Development’?•
Sea policy‘ –
second lesson’
• Lea ers ip transition at next congress o t e
Chinese Communist Party
• Build up of civilian maritime jurisdiction
enforcement fleet
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Managing Conflict in the South China
and Status Quo America
.
Uppsala Forum on Peace, Democracy and
Justice and East Asia Program
University of Uppsala
Uppsala, Sweden
ep em er ,