systems thinking: solving problems in a complex world · systems thinking complexity maturana,...

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Faculty Training Institute - An EOH Group Company

Systems Thinking: Problem Solving for a Complex World

Steve Erlank CEO: Faculty Training Institute

Past President: SA Chapter of the IIBA®

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Systems Thinking: the journey

Systems Thinking: Problem Solving in a Complex world

Cybernetics

General Systems Theory

Systems

Thinking

Complexity

Maturana, Norbert Wiener, John von Neumann,

Claude Shannons, Warren McCulloch, Ross Ashby

Ludwig von Bertalanffy

Peter Senge; Michael

Jackson; Checkland

Roger Lewin, Stuart Kaufmann,

Chris Langton, Murray Geller

Leadership

Organisational

Performance Organisational

Learning Change

Management

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This presentation

Systems Thinking: Problem Solving in a Complex world Slide 3

Multifinality

Autopoesis

Concepts

Techniques

Behaviours

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My goal


Systems thinking is an

approach and a discipline that

offers a powerful new perspective,

a specialized language,

and a set of tools that you can use to address the

most stubborn problems in

everyday life and work.

Wow! I want more…..

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So what is a System

Slide 5

A system is a group of interacting, interrelated, interdependent and heterogeneous components that form a complex and unified whole.

The system maintains its existence and functions as a whole through the interaction of its parts

Systems Thinking: Problem Solving in a Complex world

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Basic vocabulary of systems


Interfaces

Purpose

Interrelated,

interdependent components

(Subsystems)

Outputs

Constraints Feedback

Boundary

Environment

Inputs

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Requirements for System to exist

All the system’s parts must be present for it to function effectively

The specific arrangement of its component parts is critical to its purpose

Its purpose gives it context in its environment

Provides and receives feedback


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Slide 8 Systems Thinking: Problem Solving in a Complex world

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Systems Thinking


Systems thinking is the discipline and practice

of seeing wholes,

recognizing patterns and interrelationships,

and with the intention of

structuring those interrelationships

in more effective and efficient ways

to solve complex problems

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Slide 10 Seeing the Wood AND the Trees

Systems Thinking requires you to change your perspective on problem solving and

thinking

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System vs Analytical Thinking


Analytical

Thinking

Linear process; reasoned

Goal/solution seeking

Reductionist: Understand the parts

to understand whole

Reduce scope and

complexity to manage

Short term benefits

Systems

Thinking

Non-linear ; observation

Problem oriented; pattern

seeking

Emergent: Understand the

interactions to understand

whole

Explore leverage points to

manage

Long term benefits

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Stepping back from the problem


Events

Patterns

Systemic Structure

What?

How?

When?

Where?

Why?

Why not?

What if?

Systems Thinking says step back to see the big picture

The Iceberg

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Systems Thinking in Action


Problem: Customers complaining

about slow elevators in a

busy building

What other solutions exist?

Are they systems-thinking oriented or traditional thinking oriented:

Traditional Solution:

• Install faster elevators

• Install more elevators

Systems Thinking

• ???

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Key perspective shifts

Thinking in parts/silos Thinking in (causal) relationships

Thinking sequentially Thinking in (closed) loops

Thinking in the Now Thinking over time

Symptom-as-enemy Symptom-as-guide

Outsider-looking-in Insider-looking-in

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Classic Systems Thinking techniques


Causal Loop diagrams

Source: Wikipedia & Pegasuscom.com

System Archetypes Behaviour-over-time graphs

Accumulators and Flow Models

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Behavior over time graphs

A BOT graph depicts patterns of behavior that you want to explore over time

Seeing the Wood AND the Trees

Slide 16

2001 2005 2010

No of projects

No of developers

% of projects using

Agile

Project delivery

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Causal loop diagrams

Causal loop diagrams explore the relationships between multiple factors in a complex problem, over time

Slide 17

© 2004 Faculty Training Institute

Anxiety at work Number of

mistakes made

S

S

R

Reinforcing loop: Changes are amplified

• It keeps getting worse

• Things are out of control

• A vicious circle/spiral

• Self-fulfilling prophecy

• Cycle of defeat

• Exponential growth

Stress level

Relaxation

exercises

O

S

B

Balancing loop: Changes are damped

• The pendulum swings

• He’s on autopilot

• We’ve seen this before

• They level each other out

• What goes up must come down

• It’s boom and bust

??

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Multi-loop models

Most CLD’s contain multiple loops, which enable very complex problems to be understood, and interventions plotted

Seeing the Wood AND the Trees Slide 18

Number of

errors

Amount

of

Rework

S

S Work

stress

Time

pressures

Absenteeism

Tight

deadlines

# of Shortcuts

taken

S

Resources

available

S

S

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System Archetypes

A class of patterns that capture the "common stories” in systems thinking

Tools for diagnosing problems and identifying high leverage interventions that creates fundamental change Fixes that Fail / Backfire

Shifting the Burden / Addiction

Drifting Goals

Escalation

Growth and Underinvestment

Limits to Success

Success to the Successful

Tragedy of the Commons


Problem Fix

O

S

B

Unintended

consequence S

S

Delay

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ABC Financial Services Successful

Growing

Dynamic

Vibrant

Quick to implement

solutions to

problems…

But they don’t use

systems thinking a

whole lot

Once upon a time there was a little financial services company…

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Their story

Business users complain to CIO about projects not completing on time

CIO thinks: “Projects late? Hmm….” “I know: Lets implement performance incentives/penalties for PM’s for on time delivery of projects”

Project delivery improves ……..for a while…….


ABC

Financial

Services

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What Systems Thinking could have predicted


ABC Financial

Services

Unintended consequences (fix that failed)

Limits to success

Shifting the burden

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Really big problems - Lonmin strike


The obvious problem:

• Wage dispute

• Strike

• Negotiated Settlement

Hidden factors:

• Union competition

• Political expediency

• Mangaung

• Wage disparity/economic

hardship/poor conditions

• Lack of transformation

• Democratic immaturity

Inexplicable escalation:

• Illegal strike

• Militancy

• Harsh response

• …..

Long term impact:

• Sympathy strikes

• Transport backlogs

• Ratings downgrade

• Loss of revenue/tax

• Retrenchments

• Economic confidence

• Polarisation

• Uncompetitive mining

sector

• Pressure for

nationalisation

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Closer to home?


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Systems Thinking: Problem Solving in a

Complex world Slide 25

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Complex problems are complex!

Many factors that influence each other

Unpredictable, unfathomable, Nnon-measurable behaviours

Delayed reactions

Archetype patterns emerge over time

Only ‘solvable’ by application of multi-faceted basket of interventions

Strategy: shift the loops in desirable directions


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Shifting complex problems


Even small changes can have a big impact in complex systems

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The impact of small changes over time


Connectors, Mavens and

Salesmen

The story of

Thulani Madondo

The story of

Analyst Sue

The origins of the

IIBA

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Lorenz_attractor_yb.svg

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Systems Thinking: Problem Solving in a

Complex world Slide 29

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Seeing your environments as Systems


PEOPLE

PRODUCTS &

SERVICES

PROCESSES

BRAND

STUCTURE and

INFRASTRUCTURE

CONSUMABLE

RESOURCES

VALUES &

CULTURE

ENVIRONMENT

Employees

Customers

Partners

Money

Information

Consumables

Regulation

Legislation

Motivations

Ethics

Competition

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Systems Thinkers are people who

See the big picture; look for patterns and structure, not events

Think outside the box

Change perspectives to see new leverage points in complex systems

Look for interdependencies, similarities, reusable artefacts.

Pay attention and give voice to the long-term value

Find where unanticipated consequences emerge

Problem oriented rather than solution focused


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Summary


Systems Thinking

tools

Application of System

thinking in Workplace

Systems Thinking concepts

What is a

System

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Useful places to start…..

Meadows, Donella H: Thinking in Systems: A Primer ,

Gladwell. Malcolm: Tipping Point

Senge, Peter M., The Fifth Discipline: The Art & Practice of the Learning Organization

The Systems Thinker, Newsletter published by Pegasus Communications, Inc

Pegasus Communications Web site <http://www.pegasuscom.com/community.html>


http://www.pegasuscom.com/

http://www.pegasuscom.com/

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Systems Thinking: Problem Solving in a Complex world 35

Steve Erlank President – IIBA ® South Africa

CEO – Faculty Training Institute

[email protected]

Thank you

systems thinking: solving problems in a complex world · systems thinking complexity maturana,...

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