susan doka - university of windsorweb2.uwindsor.ca/lemn/lemn2008_files/presentations/doka...graph...
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Vulnerability of lower Great Lakes coastal wetland aquatic biota to climate change
Vulnerability of lower Great Lakes coastal wetland aquatic biota to climate change
Susan DokaGreat Lakes Laboratory for Fisheries and Aquatic SciencesFisheries & Oceans Canada, Burlington ON
Linda Mortsch, Andrea HebbAdaptation & Impact Research Group, Environment Canada & University of Waterloo
& Joel Ingram Canadian Wildlife Service, Environment Canada, Downsview ON
Funding Support:Climate Change Impacts & Adaptations Program
International Joint Commission LOSLR Study
Lake Erie Millennium Network ConferenceLake Erie Millennium Network ConferenceUniversity of Windsor , Windsor, ONUniversity of Windsor , Windsor, ONApril 29, 2008 13:15April 29, 2008 13:15--13:3013:30
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Temperature & Water Level Predictions
Vegetation Mapping & Modelling
Fish Habitat Supply & Vulnerability of Fishes
Water Regulation
Project OverviewProject Overview
MarshConnectivity
Evaluation
Adaptation StrategiesAdaptation Strategies
Clim
ate
Chan
ge I
mpa
cts
Clim
ate
Chan
ge I
mpa
cts
Assessment
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Great Lakes Water Levels Great Lakes Water Levels
173.0
173.5
174.0
174.5
175.0
175.5
176.0
176.5
177.0
177.5
1865
1875
1885
1895
1905
1915
1925
1935
1945
1955
1965
1975
1985
1995
2005
Year
Wat
er L
evel
(m
asl
)
72.0
72.5
73.0
73.5
74.0
74.5
75.0
75.5
76.0
76.5W
ater Level (m asl)
Lake On
tario
Lake Michigan-Huron
Lake Ontario
Lake Erie
Lake St. Clair
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Temperature & Precipitation ProjectionsTemperature & Precipitation Projections
Not so Warm & Wet
Not so Warm & Dry
Warm& Dry
Warm& Wet
Source: L. Mortsch, M. Alden & J. Klaassen, Environment Canada
Mea
n P
reci
pita
tion
Ch
ange
(%
)
Mean Temperature Change (oC)
HADCM3 B22
HADCM3 A1F1
CGCM2 A21
CGCM2 B23
-5
0
5
10
15
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
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Lake St. Clair Water LevelsLake St. Clair Water Levels
174.0
174.5
175.0
175.5
176.0
176.5
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Month
Wat
er le
vel (
m)
Not as Warm&WetNot as Warm&DryWarm&WetWarm&Dry
HistoricMaximumMeanMinimum
Climate Change Scenarios
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Lake St. Clair Scenario Lake St. Clair Scenario
•
1.57 m (IGLD85) water level decline
•
8 m dredged channel
•
Shoreline displacement from 0.5 to 6 km
Source: Lee et al. 1994
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Project Wetland LocationsProject Wetland LocationsWetland Connectivity StudyWetland Connectivity Study Modelling SitesModelling Sites Habitat SurveysHabitat Surveys
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ScenarioMitchell’s Bay Lake St. Clair
Long Point Bay Lake Erie
Presqu’ile Lake Ontario
Low Historic 360 ha
174.37 m ASL
11550 ha
173.61 m ASL
522 ha
74.40 m ASL
High Historic 519 ha
175.27 m ASL
14567 ha
174.37 m ASL
576 ha
74.92 m ASL
Low Climate Warm & Dry Scenario
309 ha 6220 ha 324 ha
High ClimateWarm & Dry Scenario
336 ha 11550 ha 393 ha
Loss(CGCM2 A21)
51 –
183 ha 14 –
35 %-1.00 m
3017 –
5330 ha 21 –
46 %-0.80 m
183 –
193 ha32 –
37 %-0.75 m
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High Historic (1978)
Low CC
Low Historic (1964)
High CC
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Rule-based Vegetation ModelsRule-based Vegetation Models
EmergentTreed/Shrub Meadow SubmergentFloating
DFO-GLLFASSubmerged Aquatic Vegetation Model
CWS-Waterloo EmergentVegetation Model(Depth, Time of Last Exposure)
(Depth, Fetch, Substrate)
Adapted Bolsenga
& Herdendorf
1993
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High Historic (1978)
Low CC
Low Historic (1964)
High CC
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Fish Habitat Model LayersFish Habitat Model Layers
Calculations of Weighted Suitable Area (WSA = Σ
Habitat Quantity · Quality)
Habitat Quality = Habitat Suitability Indices
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Lower Great Lakes Coastal Wetland Fishes (2003-2005) Lower Great Lakes Coastal Wetland Fishes (2003-2005)
bowfin, smallmouth bass, largemouth bass, white bass, muskellunge, grass pickerel
white sucker, Iowa darter, johnny darter, banded killifish, brook silverside, striped shiner, greater redhorse, shorthead redhorse, round goby*, golden shiner, pugnose shiner, emerald shiner, blackchin shiner, blacknose shiner, spottail shiner, yellow perch, logperch, river chub, rudd*
Warmwater (WW)Coolwater (CW)
longnose gar, northern pike, spotted gar, walleye
Chinook salmon*, brown trout*
Pisc
ivor
e (P
)
rock bass, black bullhead, yellow bullhead, brown bullhead, freshwater drum, goldfish*, quillback, spotfin shiner, common carp*, gizzard shad, lake chubsucker, channel catfish, bigmouth buffalo, green sunfish, pumpkinseed, warmouth, orangespotted sunfish, bluegill, pugnose minnow, white perch*, spotted sucker, ghost shiner, mimic shiner, tadpole madtom, white crappie, bluntnose minnow, fathead minnow, black crappie, central mudminnow
trout-perch, alewife*
Non
-Pis
civo
re (N
P)
Coldwater
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High Historic (1978)
Low CC
Low Historic (1964)
High CC
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Base Case (High)
Spawning
YOY
Adult
WW-P
WW-NP
CW-P
CW-NP
Base Case (Low)
WSA (100s of Hectares)WSA (100s of Hectares)
Warm & Dry (High) Warm & Dry (Low)
Long Point, Lake Erie Long Point, Lake Erie
0 5 10 15 20 0 5 10 15 20
WW-P
WW-NP
CW-P
CW-NP
Fish
Gui
ldFi
sh G
uild
Life StageLife Stage
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Mitchell’s Bay, Lake St. ClairMitchell’s Bay, Lake St. Clair
0 50 100 150 200 0 50 100 150 200
Base Case (High) Base Case (Low)
Warm & Dry (High) Warm & Dry (Low)
WW-P
WW-NP
CW-P
CW-NP
WW-P
WW-NP
CW-P
CW-NP
WSA (Hectares)WSA (Hectares)
Fish
Gui
ldFi
sh G
uild
Life StageLife StageSpawning
YOY
Adult
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Conclusions of Modelling Assessment
Conclusions of Modelling Assessment•
Depending on local physical conditions, the response of vegetation and habitat availability for different fish groups & life stages varies
•
Shoreline development and restoration measures need to be evaluated with variability & projections in mind
•
Future assessment should include thermal changes, coastal processes, probabilities, and be at the basin or lake-level to evaluate spatial patterns and protect important transitional areas
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Vulnerability of Great Lakes Coastal Wetlands Biotic Communities
Vulnerability of Great Lakes Coastal Wetlands Biotic Communities
Includes:a)
Sensitivity index for 99 native lacustrine species based on thermal & coastal changes
b)
Evaluation of wetland dyking and whole lake regulation adaptations
Project Website PDF:http://http://www.fes.uwaterloo.ca/www.fes.uwaterloo.ca/research/research/airgairg/wetlands/wetlands
No more CDs or paper copies.No more CDs or paper copies.
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AcknowledgementsAcknowledgementsGIS Support:•
Carolyn Bakelaar, Charlene Rae, Andrew Doolittle, Krista Holmes
Project Support:•
Lynn Bouvier, Jason Barnucz, Matt Stuart, Kathy Leisti, Kris VandeSompel, Maggie Galloway, Shawn Meyer
Funding Support:• Climate Change Impacts & Adaptation Program •
International Joint Commission