site visit to calvert on november 18, 2014
TRANSCRIPT
Investor field trip to Calvert, US
Michael Wallis
President, Coil Americas
November 18, 2014
Disclaimer
This presentation contains, or may be deemed to contain, statements that are not historical facts
but forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking statements are based on the current plans,
estimates and expectations of Outokumpu’s management based on information available to it on
the date of this presentation. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risks and
uncertainties, because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that may or may not
occur in the future. Future results of Outokumpu may vary from the results expressed in, or implied
by, the forward-looking statements, possibly to a material degree. Factors that could cause such
differences include, but are not limited to, the risks described in the "Risk factors" section of
Outokumpu’s latest Annual Report and the risks detailed in Outokumpu’s most recent financial
results announcement. Outokumpu undertakes no obligation to update this presentation after the
date hereof.
November 18, 2014 2
Contents
1. Outokumpu in brief
2. Coil Americas overview and markets
3. Coil Americas ramp-up
4. Summary
Appendix
3 November 18, 2014
Outokumpu – A global leader in stainless
steel Outokumpu profile Outokumpu global footprint
Key facts & figures (EURm) Sales by business area (2013) 2)
2013 9M/14
Sales 6,745 5,170
EBITDA -165 59
Total assets 8,823 6,785
Personnel 12,561 12,385
1) Market shares 2013 are calculated based on cold rolled deliveries. Source: Eurofer April 2014, AISI March
2014, CRU February 2013
2) External sales
3) Graph shows direct sales only = ~55% of Outokumpu’s total sales in 2013
USA
Cost efficient integrated
mill (Calvert). High
performance stainless
plate, bar and pipe
production units.
Mexico
Cold rolling mill in San
Luis Potosí, Mexico.
Focus on ferritics and
tailored solutions.
Sweden
Stainless production
units, plate products,
and R&D center.
Finland
Modern fully integrated chrome
mine, ferrochrome works and
stainless steel production unit
and R&D center. Group HQ.
China
Cold rolling and
service centers.
Germany
High quality stainless
steel production and
R&D units.
UK
Integrated stainless
production site,
specializing in long
products.
4% 5% 6%
14% 64%
7% 7%
29%
21% 5%
17%
21%
Other operations
Long Products
Quarto Plate
APAC
Coil Americas
Coil EMEA
• Creates advanced materials that are
efficient, long lasting and recyclable –
helping to build a world that lasts forever
• Strong market position: Market share of
35% in Europe, 20% in NAFTA and 1% in
Asia1)
• Employs about 12,400 professionals in
more than 40 countries, with headquarters
in Espoo, Finland
• Shares listed in the NASDAQ OMX Helsinki
4
Other
Heavy industries
Metal processing
Architecture & Building
Automotive
Consumer goods
~55% of sales is direct sales to end-customers 3)
November 18, 2014
5
Q3 2014 in brief
• Deterioration of market environment impacting Q4 outlook
• Imports into Europe further increased to 33% in Q3
• Nickel price down by ~17% since the end of Q2 4)
• Weaker economic outlook in Europe and China
• EBIT excl. NRI positive for the first time since merger
• Positive EUR 23 million operative cash flow as a result of
focused net working capital management
• Net debt stable
• Achieved price increases avg. EUR 10–20/tonne in Q3
• 9 months year-on-year improvement of EUR 209 million in
underlying EBIT due to savings and progress in ramp-ups,
particularly in Calvert
• Target for total savings raised by EUR 80 million to EUR
550 million by end-2017
1) EBITDA excluding non-recurring items, other than impairments; raw material-related inventory gains/losses
and as of I/14 metal derivative gains/losses, unaudited.
2) Q4/13 includes positive effect of EUR 20 million EEG refund
3) Source: CRU September 2014, price for 2mm sheet cold rolled 304 grade
4) Nickel cash LME daily official settlement of USD 15,575/t as of November 3, 2014
3
-3-48-89
-133-125-85
-432
EBIT excl. NRI (EUR million) 1, 2)
III/
13
IV/1
3
20
13
Net debt and gearing
Transaction prices 304 stainless (USD/t) 3)
I/1
4
I/1
3
II/1
3
2,068
II/14
2,068
I/14
1,733
2013
3,556
2012
3,431
III/14
92%
188% 116%
EUR million
II/1
4
76%
III/
14
96%
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
2011 2012 2013 2014
Europe USA China
Underl.
EBIT -28 -6 -45 -377 -90 -118 -87 -82
November 18, 2014
EBITDA development per business area
Coil EMEA Coil Americas
APAC
6659
43
3
3232
85
II I IV III II I III
110 1
-19
-35
-50
-70
-38
-12
II I IV III II I III
16
2
-3-3
02
10
II I IV III II I III
4
-2-3
43
4
2
II I IV III II I III
EBITDA excl. NRI (EUR million)
• Clear YTD improvement vs
2013 despite lower volumes
driven by synergies and cost
reduction programs
• Volume outlook for Q4 muted
due to lower nickel price and
destocking
EBITDA excl. NRI (EUR million)
EBITDA excl. NRI (EUR million)
-193 • Ramp-up of the Calvert mill
progressing
• Q3 negatively impacted by
maintenance and repair in
Calvert cold rolling lines
affecting volumes and costs
• EBITDA break-even target for
the full year 2014 intact
• Demand and
prices in APAC
fluctuating
• Volumes
relatively stable
• Q3 impacted by
high raw
material costs
earlier in the
year
9 • Good business
conditions and
performance in the
US
• Q3 profitability down
due to lower
volumes vs.
exceptionally strong
Q2
6
Quarto Plate Long Products
-5
2
-2-2-3
9
-1
I II IV III II I III
EBITDA excl. NRI (EUR million)
• Ramp-up of the
Degerfors mill
ongoing
• Q3 volumes stable
vs. Q2
EBITDA excl. NRI (EUR million)
1 -3
2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014
2013 2014 2013 2014
November 18, 2014
Key building blocks for Outokumpu turnaround
Quarto Plate and Long Products
Committed to EUR 300 million cash release from NWC by the end of 2014. New target of EUR
400 million by the end of 2015 bringing closer to best industry peers
Capital expenditure <EUR 160 million in 2014. Well invested asset base allowing moderate
CAPEX levels in the coming years
Cash flow
Good progress in ramp-up despite production issues in cold rolling mill
Delivery and EBITDA break even target confirmed (2013: EUR -193 million), indicating
significant y-o-y improvement. Full capacity and potential in place by the end of 2016
Coil Americas
Profitability improvement driven by improved mix and benefits from restructuring and cost
saving programs
Next milestones are Bochum closure in 2015 and investments in Krefeld cold rolling (NIFO1)).
EMEA restructuring
QP: Ramp-up of the Degerfors investment is a high priority. With cost reduction and
efficiency improvement to deliver step change in profitability
LP: Cost efficiency optimization and growth through enhanced specialty focus
Savings programs
7
Savings are well on track: Cumulative savings of EUR 340 million compared to 2012.
Higher ambition level: Overall target of EUR 550 million in 2017
1) NIFO: Nirosta Ferritic Optimization
November 18, 2014
Contents
1. Outokumpu in brief
2. Coil Americas overview and markets
3. Coil Americas ramp-up
4. Summary
Appendix
8 November 18, 2014
Coil Americas – Strong market presence
Calvert Capacity
Mexinox Capacity
Outokumpu’s Americas Set Up
2,400
240
320
BRA 450
Rest of
SAM 190
Melting
Hot Rolling
Cold Rolling
900
350 250
870
Calvert Mexinox
Fully integrated, state of the
art, cost competitive
production facility in Calvert,
Alabama which is in the final
stage of ramp up
Specialized cold rolling mill in
San Luis Potosi, Mexico
Established market presence
with long term customer
relationships and market
share of ~approx 20% in the
NAFTA region 2)
Established sales team
Products have a good name in
the market regardless of
source
Outokumpu offers widest
product range
The only 72 inch wide
manufacturer in NAFTA
Outokumpu‘s strengths in the Americas
Total stainless 2014, in thousand tonnes
350
11 12 13 14 15 16
250
11 12 13 14 15 16
Chicago Sales office
Running at full capacity
Commercial ramp up to full
production by end of 2016
Service Center: Buenos Aires, Argentina
Sales office: in Sao Paulo, Brazil
1501)
9 Source: SMR Real Demand September 2014, Total stainless= rolled & forged
1) Sold to free market
2) Market shares 2013 are calculated based on cold rolled deliveries
November 18, 2014
Progress in Calvert ramp-up and
Coil Americas turnaround
Stainless Americas EBITDA excl. NRI 1) Comments
-50
-70
-38
-12
1
-19
-35
III/13 II/13 I/13 II/14 III/14 I/14 IV/13
EURm
Coil Americas expected to reach
break-even EBITDA in 2014
1) Non-recurring items 10
• Opportunities:
• Increasing market demand and healthy
pricing
• Continuing volume ramp-up
• Broadening portfolio and improving
quality
• Very good performance in Mexinox
• Challenges:
• Recent technical issues in cold rolling and
maintenance and repair work
• Ongoing efforts to optimize raw material
mix and scrap ratios in Calvert
• Overall process stability
November 18, 2014
1.3 1.6
1.3
1.1
0.8
1.0
1.3 1.5
1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3 0.3
0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2 0.2
0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3 0.3
0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2 0.2
0.2 0.2
0.2 0.2
1.9
2.2
1.9
1.7
1.3
1.7
2.1
2.3
2.5 2.5
2.6 2.7 2.8
2.8
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f
United States Mexico Canada Brazil Others
11
Healthy market demand in Americas
Source: SMR September 2014, CRU August 2014
Demand in Americas [cold rolled]
Americas:
+5.3%
NAFTA:
+5.6%
2014
Mio.t
November 18, 2014
12
Long-term market share target of 25-30%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
2,000
2,250
2,500
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f
CR consumption in NAFTA CR capacity in NAFTA Outokumpu CR market share
20%
Source: AISI September 2014, SMR September 2014, Outokumpu
NAFTA cold rolled market size (in kt) and Outokumpu market share
22%
Q3/14
THIRD PARTY
+100
OTK
+100
OTK
+250
November 18, 2014
13
Source: CRU November 2014
1) 2mm sheet cold rolled 304 grade
Development of US stainless steel prices
Transaction prices 304 stainless steel 1) Base prices 304 stainless steel 1)
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
Jan
2011
Jan
2012
Jan
2013
Jan
2014
2,000
7,000
12,000
17,000
22,000
27,000
32,000
Nickel price
US transaction price
1,250
1,300
1,350
1,400
1,450
1,500
Jan
2011
Jan
2012
Jan
2013
Jan
2014
US base price[$/t] [$/t] [$/t]
November 18, 2014
14
Coil Americas market approach
Automotive;
28%
Household/
Commercial
Appliances;
35%
Pipe & Tube;
10%
Sinks &
Hoods; 6%
Others; 21%
Our channel structure in the Americas
End users &
processors 37%
Distributors
63%
Sales by end-use customer segments (2013)
November 18, 2014
15
Distributors
Tubes, Pipes & Metal
Processing
End-Use Industry Groups Route to End-Use
Market sizes: Americas market, fat products 2014, Growth rates: CAGR 2014-2017
Others: Elevators, HVAC, Renewable Energy, Water Treatment, etc.
Source: SMR September 2014
Automotive Household /
Commercial Appliances Catering Food & Drinks
Heavy Transport Others Sinks & Hoods
Market size: 609 kt Growth rate: 4%
Market size: 305 kt Growth rate: 3%
Market size: 643 kt Growth rate: 2%
Market size: 590 kt Growth rate: 3%
Market size: 144 kt Growth rate: 3%
Market size: 364 kt Growth rate: 5%
Coil Americas focus industry groups
November 18, 2014
Contents
1. Outokumpu in brief
2. Coil Americas overview and markets
3. Coil Americas ramp-up
4. Summary
Appendix
16 November 18, 2014
Calvert mill
River Terminal
Slab Yard
Carbon Hot Strip Mill
Connection Bay Hot Annealing Line
Cold Rolling Mills
Stainless Melt Shop
Cold Annealing Line
Finishing
17 November 18, 2014
• Raw materials
o Scrap ratio of 80-85%, above industry average
o Annual austenitic scrap usage of approximately 400,000 t
o Scrap supply quality is good
o Proximity to many scrap collection yards in the US
o Global procurement/sourcing
o In-house ferrochrome supply
• Energy
o Long-term contract with Alabama Power, Outokumpu is #1
customer
o Long-term contract with Sempra Gas, one of the largest
suppliers in the South
• Offshore drilling in the Gulf of Mexico offer ample
resources
• Labor
o Highly competetive labor costs
o Workforce versatility supported by experts from other
Outokumpu units during ramp-up
Highly cost competitive operations
18 November 18, 2014
19
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Calvert technical ramp-up
• Stabilize production
• Complete product offering
• Improve efficiencies
2014:
EBITDA
break-even
Ramp-up phases and financial ambition
BA Americas
Financial ambition level
A
Calvert commercial ramp-up
• Ramp-up to full production capacity
• Maximize synergies of Mexinox & Calvert
• Focus on market penetration and margin
improvement
B
November 18, 2014
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2013 2014
Melt shop ramp-up proceeding
20
Tonnes per month
A
November 18, 2014
Temporary impacted by repair
work in cold rolling lines and
active inventory management
21
Calvert is successfully expanding portfolio
at high pace
A
TK OTK OTK OTK
2012 Jan-13 Jan-14 Aug-14
Grades Finishing 36" 48" 60" 72" 36" 48" 60" 72" 36" 48" 60" 72" 36" 48" 60" 72"
201 2B/2D
CMP
POL
201 LN 2B/2D
CMP
POL
301 2B/2D
(6 & 6.6% Min Ni) CMP
POL
304 / 304L / 304HS 2B/2D
CMP
POL
316L / 316L HS 2B/2D
CMP
POL
321 2B/2D
CMP
POL
409 2B/2D
430 2B/2D
POL
439 / 439M 2B/2D
POL
Fully qualified Under development No current development ongoing November 18, 2014
Combined Mexinox and Calvert offering to
meet customer requirements
42
248 128
96
300 Sheet
Stainless steel grades
300 Coil 409 430
Pro
du
cti
on
ca
pa
bilit
ies
OTK - MXX
300 Sheet
Stainless steel grades
300 Coil 409 430
Pro
du
cti
on
ca
pa
bilit
ies
Hot-rolled
black strip
Hot-rolled
black strip
Slabs Slabs
Extra-wide
72"
Extra-wide
72"
OTK - USA
Cold-rolled
strip (BA)
Cold-rolled
strip (BA)
Hot-rolled
white strip
Hot-rolled
white strip
Cold-rolled
strip (2B)
Cold-rolled
strip (2B)
2010 NAFTA production portfolio (Mexinox) 2014 NAFTA production portfolio (Mexinox + Calvert)
22
A
November 18, 2014
Work share model of Mexinox and Calvert
Regional
Main focus on the US (~70%)
Product specialization
• Austenitics
• 72” wide
• Polished
• Continuous mill plate
Mexinox
Regional
Main focus on Mexico (~50%)
- cross regional supply when:
a) lack of capabilities of local mill
b) production cost advantages
Product specialization
• Automotive ferritics
• Medium & light gauges
• Bright Annealed/Rolled-On/
Polished
• Blanks & Circles
Calvert
Synergies through optimized work share Regional < > Product
23
A
November 18, 2014
Calvert ramp-up improves profitability through
higher volumes and capacity utilization
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
Q1
20
11
Q2
20
11
Q3
20
11
Q4
20
11
Q1
20
12
Q2
20
12
Q3
20
12
Q4
20
12
Q1
20
13
Q2
20
13
Q3
20
13
Q4
20
13
Q1
20
14
Q2
20
14
Q3
20
14
20
15
Hot band / rolled Cold Rolled
Tonnes
Calvert delivery volumes 2011 - 2014
Calvert capacities (annual):
• Melt shop 900 kt
• Hot rolling 870 kt
• Cold rolling 350 kt
24
B
• Repair work in 54-inch cold
rolling line ongoing, back in
operations in Dec.
• Maintenance and repair
measures in two other cold
rolling lines concluded
Approx. 20kt lost in Q3
• Delivery target of 530 kt for
Coil Americas in 2014 intact
Status update
Yield
+ Delivery performance
+ Reworking ratio
= Cold rolled production and deliveries
November 18, 2014
Targeting 25-30% market share in NAFTA
25
Leveraging existing customer base to grow
market share while developing new channels
• Complete cold and hot rolled
offering
• Replacement of own and other
imports
• Service centers able to enter new
customers with wider Outokumpu
offering
• Leverage high market share position
with home appliance sector
• ‘Made in America’ supports
requirements of potential new
customers
• Investigate opportunities in
automotive sector
• Pipe & tube industries in NAFTA
• South American markets
• 61”–72” offering
B
New customers Existing customers
November 18, 2014
Contents
1. Outokumpu in brief
2. Coil Americas overview and markets
3. Coil Americas ramp-up
4. Summary
Appendix
26 November 18, 2014
27
Coil Americas well positioned for continued
growth
•Global R&D
•Established local presence and technical expertise
•Global footprint & resources
•Aim to be partner of choice in NAFTA region
•Established customer base, experienced sales team
•Replacement of own and other imports
Strong #2 local producer in the US market
•Most advanced production site worldwide
•Efficient logistics, low energy costs, good availability of scrap and other raw materials
•Increase to full production yields higher utilization rate
Integrated, low-cost production across NAFTA
•Full product range with unique 72” wide capabilities
•Wider offering allows service centers to enter new segments
•Melted in America
Broadest portfolio that supports and develops
local demand
Leveraging Outokumpu’s leading technical
expertise
November 18, 2014
28
Coil Americas priorities
• Commercial ramp-up: Focused
market penetration
• Maximize synergies between
Mexinox and Calvert
• Targeting EBITDA breakeven for the
full year 2014
• Attractive long-term EBIT and
return-on-asset potential
• Stabilize production
• Complete product offering
• Maximize utilization rates
Execution of the technical ramp up Maximize profitability
November 18, 2014
Appendix
29 November 18, 2014
• 1976 Mexinox established
• 2007 Calvert greenfield project (USD 1.5 bn investment)
• 2010 First coil produced at Calvert mill
• 2011 First 74” coil produced at Calvert mill
• 2012 First melt at Calvert mill
• Dec. 2012: Inoxum transaction: two leaders each with over 100 year legacy come
together to form the new Outokumpu
• Over 2,500 employees form the Americas team
• 2014 Record months in sales and production
Outokumpu Americas milestones
30 November 18, 2014
Outokumpu Mexinox
• Cold rolling capacity of 250,000 tonnes annually
• Founded in 1976: 37 years of cumulative know-how in stainless steel
• Excellent reputation – highly respected both in the US and in Mexico
• Focus on ferritic, tailored material solutions
• Close collaboration with end-customers
• Strong market share in the Mexican market
• Largest importer into the US
31 November 18, 2014
32
Outokumpu Mexinox
November 18, 2014
Calvert - fully integrated and state of the art
mill
Latest production technology and
equipment
• Full product range
• High quality
• High efficiency
Unique 72 inch coil capability
Efficient logistics
Low energy costs
Good availability of scrap and other
raw materials
Workforce versatility
Hot rolling shared service with
AM/NS, 25 year contract
Calvert mill strengths
33 November 18, 2014