russian capital markets, moscow exchange trends and … · 2019-12-16 · 9 lse group uk 142 × 10...
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December 2019
Russian capital markets, Moscow Exchange trends and opportunities
Leading positions in a global context in 1H2019
2
Among top 26 exchanges by equity trading volumes globally3
Rank Exchange CountryMkt Cap
(USD bln)Securities
listedTrading vol.(USD bln)
1 Nasdaq OMX USA 11 658 3 080 8 087
2 ICE&NYSE USA 24 231 2 335 7 240
3 Shenzhen SE China 3 034 2 170 6 619
4 Shanghai SE China 4 777 1 478 4 589
5 Japan Exchange Japan 5 614 3 677 2 560
6 LSE Group UK 3 934 2 450 994
7 HKEx Hong Kong 4 189 2 382 983
8 Korea Exchange Korea 1 433 2 221 976
9 Euronext EU 4 418 1 239 953
… … … … … …
26 Moscow Exchange Russia 720 220 79
2rd largest exchange in fixed income1
Rank Exchange CountryTrading vol.(USD bln)
Incl.REPOs
1 BME Spain 3 146 √
2 Moscow Exchange Russia 3 107 √
3 Johannesburg SE South Africa 1 298 √
4 Korea Exchange Korea 931 ×
5 Oslo Bors Norway 466 √
6 Shanghai SE China 445 ×
7 Colombia SE Columbia 162 ×
8 Nasdaq Nordic USA 156 ×
9 LSE Group UK 142 ×
10 Santiago SE Chile 139 √
7th largest exchange in derivatives2
Rank Exchange Country Contracts traded (mln)
1 NSE India India 2 714
2 CME Group USA 2 454
3 B3 (BM&FBOVESPA) Brazil 1 310
4 Deutsche Boerse Germany 1 001
5 Korea Exchange Korea 807
6 CBOE USA 686
7 Moscow Exchange Russia 669
8 Shanghai Fut. Exchange China 598
9 Nasdaq OMX USA 545
10 Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange China 525
15th largest publically listed exchange by Mkt Cap4
Rank Exchange CountryMkt Cap
(USD bln)
1 CME USA 69.5
2 ICE&NYSE USA 48.5
3 HKEx Hong Kong 44.4
4 Deutsche Boerse Germany 26.8
5 LSE Group UK 24.3
6 B3 (BM&FBovespa) Brazil 20.1
7 Nasdaq OMX USA 15.9
8 CBOE USA 11.6
9 ASX Australia 11.2
10 Japan Exchange Japan 8.5
11 SGX Singapore 6.3
12 Euronext EU 5.3
13 TMX Group Canada 3.9
14 BATS USA 3.4
15 Moscow Exchange Russia 3.3
Sources: Moscow Exchange, WFE as of 01 August 2019, Bloomberg, LSE Group1. Due to different methodologies applied, data on fixed income trading may not be directly comparable among exchanges. Data for 1H20192. Data for 1H20193. Top equity trading exchanges are ranked by trading volume. Ranking without BATS (excluded due to absence of data for market capitalization and number of listed companies). Data for 1H20194. Market capitalization of public exchanges based on Bloomberg data as of 31 June 2019
Key Russian macroeconomic indicators
3
Real GDP growth
% y-o-y
2020F2014
2.0%
2015 2019F2016 20182017
0.7%
-2.5%
0.3%
1.6%2.3%
1.3%
Inflation
year average % y-o-y
2020F201620152014
7.8%
2017 2018 2019F
15.7%
7.1%
3.7%2.9%
4.5%2.8%
Industrial production growth
% y-o-y
20172015 20162014 2018 2020F2019F
1.7%
-0.8%
2.2% 2.1%
2.9%2.5%
3.0%
Gross fixed investment
% y-o-y
Source: Sberbank CIB as of 11.12.2019
2014
-1.8%
2015 20172016 2020F2018
5.2%
2019F
-10.7%
1.0%2.9% 3.0%
4.0%
Equity market
4
>300 market participants
T+2 settlement cycle
Direct market access (DMA) and Sponsored market access (SMA)
Listing and corporate governance reform (new corporate governance code developed together with OECD)
Opening and closing auctions
More than 210 issuers from key sectors of the economy
Market cap: USD 743 bln (as of 10 December 2019)
ADTV 11M2019: USD 753 mln
Source: Moscow Exchange
Largest listed Russian companies
5
№ Company IndustryMarket
cap, USD bln
Share in total Market Cap,
%
1 Oil & Gas 92,4 12%
2 Banks & Finance 80,6 11%
3 Oil & Gas 74,7 10%
4 Oil & Gas 68,7 9%
5 Oil & Gas 59,7 8%
6 Metals & Mining 45,4 6%
7 Oil & Gas 31,1 4%
8 Oil & Gas 25,7 3%
9 Oil & Gas 24,3 3%
10 Metals & Mining 14,3 2%
Total TOP-10 517.1 70%
Market Cap as of 11.12.2019Source: Moscow Exchange
Composition of MOEX Index
50%
18%
15%
5%
5%
Oil & Gas
Electric Utilities
IT
Construction
Consumer
Financials
1%
Metals & Mining
3%
1%
Telecom
2%
Chemical
0%
Transport
IMOEX indice hit all-time high on November 07th
reaching the value over 3 000
13,711,5 11,0 11,6 11,8
14,015,7 16,6
19,1
16,0 16,3
19,2
22,8
NOV 18 DEC 18 JAN 19 FEB 19 MAR 19 APR 19 MAY 19 JUN 19 JUL 19 AUG 19 SEP 19 OCT 19 NOV 19
TOTAL
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
RTS index
EQUITY MARKET: NOVEMBER 2019 HIGHLIGHTS
6
Total trading volume dynamics, $ bln
1 438,45
34,5 % YTD
RTSI as of November 30
48,1%
35,2%
8,3%
5,6%2,8%
Non-residents
Individuals
Dealers
Institutionals
Asset managers
Main mode turnover by client group
TOP performance MOEXBC (blue chips)
TickerFree-float1,
$ blnADTV, $ mln
Price YTD, %
GAZP 43,75 148,8 67,8
SNGS 6,14 19,3 64,1
YNDX 11,8 13,3 39,5
GMKN 16 38,8 30,7
MTSS 4,27 9,6 27,9
TOP performance MCXSM (small caps)
TickerFree-float1,
$ blnADTV,$ mln
Price YTD, %
OGKB 0,3 0,9 98,1
AFKS 0,8 3,8 87,5
MSRS 0,1 0,1 68,6
TGKA 0,1 0,5 55,2
RSTI 0,4 3,7 53,6
TOP-5 liquid stocks, $ mln
894
1 106
1 543
2 417
9 204
SURGUTNEFTEGAZ
NORNICKEL
LUKOIL
SBERBANK
GAZPROM
Equity market indices return in 2019 YTD
7
Source: Bloomberg as of 06.12.2019. Return for 05.12.2019 / 31.12.2018
MSCI indices dynamics in USD
5%
JapanRussia IndiaBrazilUSA UKChina Germany South Africa
31%
25%
16% 16%15%
12%
8%
-3%
- Emerging markets - Developed markets
Russian equities: high dividend yield
8
Emerging market indices dividend yield 2019E, %The most liquid Russian companies with
dividend yield >6% (2019E), %
Source: Bloomberg as of 10.12.2019, Sberbank CIB
Bloomberg estimate - 2019E dividend yield for emerging market indexes and Russian blue chips
7,0
4,0
3,7
3,4
3,2
3,0
2,6
2,2
1,5
S. Africa
Russia
Malaysia
Mexico
India
Turkey
Brazil
China
Indonesia
13,6
12,9
12,2
11,2
8,0
7,6
7,4
7,2
7,1
6,6
6,2
Tatneft
Seversteel
Gazprom
NLMK
MMK
Sberbank
Moscow Exchange
Alrosa
Nornickel
Rosneft
Lukoil
9
StocksStocks
and goldStocks and
bonds
Stocks and bonds
31 16 are based on international law
15 are based on Russian law
Russian collective investment market November 2019
9 Countries on which our ETFs are based
Total:
85 89 101 110159
194
309
15
210
85 89 101 110
159
209
520
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 11М'2019
Asset under management, mln USD
0 3 310 9
2429
1
14
0,53,5 3,1
9,8 9,3
24,4
43,0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 11М'19
Trading volume, bln RUB40
ETF
ETFs is based on international law
ETFs is based on Russian law
Stocks Stocks Stocks Stocks
+5%+13%
+9%+45%
+31%
x2,5
х7-11%
х3-5%
х2,6
9 11 11 12 12 15 16
2
15
9 11 11 12 1217
31
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 11М19
Russian-law ETF ETF
Record inflow of retail investors to MOEX securities market: ~150 thousand new clients per month in 2019
Retail clients on securities market
unique clients, mln
New retail clients Individual Investment accounts (IIA)
Cumulative, thousand accountsunique clients, thousands
Source: Moscow Exchange - Clients are those of the Moscow Exchange.
2018
702
2015 2017 11M2019
106
252
1 622
+137%
+179%
89
196
301
597
1 450
2015 2016 Nov 20192017 2018
+120%
+54%
+98%
+143%
10
20172015 Nov 20192018
2,0
1,0
1,3
3,5
+30%
+49%
+80%
Growing share of international investors on MOEX markets
11
Share of international investors in equities and derivatives trading on MOEX
Equities market Derivatives market
OFZ holdings of non-residents
Share of non-residents in OFZ
as of period end
Source: Moscow Exchange, CBR
44%
2013
50%
2015 2017 11М2019
48%
40%
2013-11M2019:
+10 p.p. Record
47%
2013 2015
40%
19%
2017
47%
11М2019
2013-8M2019:
+26 p.p.
4%
22%
2011
24%
2013
33%
2015 2017
24%
2018
32%
01.11.2019
33%Share of foreign investors in OFZ
secondary trading
Reported international funds’ holdings of Russian equities is close to a pre-crisis level in 2013
12
Europe without UK%
UK%
USA and Canada%
WorldUSD bln
20172013
85.6
2015 9М2019
50.2
70.6
80.3
41%
20172013
49%
2015 9М2019
54%
52%
- Share in holdings
2015
21%
2013
22% 22%21%
2017 9М2019
2017
25%
2015
33%
2013
27%
9М2019
21%
Source: ThomsonONE – as of period end, including DRs on Russian shares
Closing auction: modern technology for price discovery
13Source: Moscow Exchange data as of 25.09.2019
Statistics
Following the success of the Closing auction, MOEX launched Opening auction in June 2015
6 6 11 8 9 1010
10
10101116
9
9
12
11 1511 8 1112101214 9 91511121313101210
181814
181910
2118141417
12
40
252932
45
28
5651
2723
46
47 44
4244
33
48
34
86
5042
6762
0,0%
1,0%
2,0%
3,0%
4,0%
5,0%
6,0%
7,0%
8,0%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Value traded at closing auction, RUB bn (left axis)
As % of EOB volume (right axis)
FTSE decision on CA price usage MSCI decision on CA price usage
~$500mn traded in CA on FTSE August rebalance
Closing auction implementation brought MOEX infrastructure in line with the best practices;
FTSE started using MOEX Closing price in April 2015;
MSCI started using MOEX Closing price in October 2017;
A steady growth of Closing auction share in total Securities market turnover confirms foreign institutional
investors’ interest towards Russian market.
Quick facts
Last MSCI rebalancing was in August 2019
Moscow is the liquidity center for Russian equities
14
Source: LiquidMetrix, Moscow Exchange, Bloomberg
MOEX vs LSE share
49%55% 58% 63%
69%
51%45% 42% 37%
31%
2016June 2013
11М20192014 2018
LSE MOEX
Record
Disclaimer
15
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