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December 2019 Russian capital markets, Moscow Exchange trends and opportunities

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Page 1: Russian capital markets, Moscow Exchange trends and … · 2019-12-16 · 9 LSE Group UK 142 × 10 Santiago SE Chile 139 √ 7th largest exchange in derivatives2 Rank Country Contracts

December 2019

Russian capital markets, Moscow Exchange trends and opportunities

Page 2: Russian capital markets, Moscow Exchange trends and … · 2019-12-16 · 9 LSE Group UK 142 × 10 Santiago SE Chile 139 √ 7th largest exchange in derivatives2 Rank Country Contracts

Leading positions in a global context in 1H2019

2

Among top 26 exchanges by equity trading volumes globally3

Rank Exchange CountryMkt Cap

(USD bln)Securities

listedTrading vol.(USD bln)

1 Nasdaq OMX USA 11 658 3 080 8 087

2 ICE&NYSE USA 24 231 2 335 7 240

3 Shenzhen SE China 3 034 2 170 6 619

4 Shanghai SE China 4 777 1 478 4 589

5 Japan Exchange Japan 5 614 3 677 2 560

6 LSE Group UK 3 934 2 450 994

7 HKEx Hong Kong 4 189 2 382 983

8 Korea Exchange Korea 1 433 2 221 976

9 Euronext EU 4 418 1 239 953

… … … … … …

26 Moscow Exchange Russia 720 220 79

2rd largest exchange in fixed income1

Rank Exchange CountryTrading vol.(USD bln)

Incl.REPOs

1 BME Spain 3 146 √

2 Moscow Exchange Russia 3 107 √

3 Johannesburg SE South Africa 1 298 √

4 Korea Exchange Korea 931 ×

5 Oslo Bors Norway 466 √

6 Shanghai SE China 445 ×

7 Colombia SE Columbia 162 ×

8 Nasdaq Nordic USA 156 ×

9 LSE Group UK 142 ×

10 Santiago SE Chile 139 √

7th largest exchange in derivatives2

Rank Exchange Country Contracts traded (mln)

1 NSE India India 2 714

2 CME Group USA 2 454

3 B3 (BM&FBOVESPA) Brazil 1 310

4 Deutsche Boerse Germany 1 001

5 Korea Exchange Korea 807

6 CBOE USA 686

7 Moscow Exchange Russia 669

8 Shanghai Fut. Exchange China 598

9 Nasdaq OMX USA 545

10 Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange China 525

15th largest publically listed exchange by Mkt Cap4

Rank Exchange CountryMkt Cap

(USD bln)

1 CME USA 69.5

2 ICE&NYSE USA 48.5

3 HKEx Hong Kong 44.4

4 Deutsche Boerse Germany 26.8

5 LSE Group UK 24.3

6 B3 (BM&FBovespa) Brazil 20.1

7 Nasdaq OMX USA 15.9

8 CBOE USA 11.6

9 ASX Australia 11.2

10 Japan Exchange Japan 8.5

11 SGX Singapore 6.3

12 Euronext EU 5.3

13 TMX Group Canada 3.9

14 BATS USA 3.4

15 Moscow Exchange Russia 3.3

Sources: Moscow Exchange, WFE as of 01 August 2019, Bloomberg, LSE Group1. Due to different methodologies applied, data on fixed income trading may not be directly comparable among exchanges. Data for 1H20192. Data for 1H20193. Top equity trading exchanges are ranked by trading volume. Ranking without BATS (excluded due to absence of data for market capitalization and number of listed companies). Data for 1H20194. Market capitalization of public exchanges based on Bloomberg data as of 31 June 2019

Page 3: Russian capital markets, Moscow Exchange trends and … · 2019-12-16 · 9 LSE Group UK 142 × 10 Santiago SE Chile 139 √ 7th largest exchange in derivatives2 Rank Country Contracts

Key Russian macroeconomic indicators

3

Real GDP growth

% y-o-y

2020F2014

2.0%

2015 2019F2016 20182017

0.7%

-2.5%

0.3%

1.6%2.3%

1.3%

Inflation

year average % y-o-y

2020F201620152014

7.8%

2017 2018 2019F

15.7%

7.1%

3.7%2.9%

4.5%2.8%

Industrial production growth

% y-o-y

20172015 20162014 2018 2020F2019F

1.7%

-0.8%

2.2% 2.1%

2.9%2.5%

3.0%

Gross fixed investment

% y-o-y

Source: Sberbank CIB as of 11.12.2019

2014

-1.8%

2015 20172016 2020F2018

5.2%

2019F

-10.7%

1.0%2.9% 3.0%

4.0%

Page 4: Russian capital markets, Moscow Exchange trends and … · 2019-12-16 · 9 LSE Group UK 142 × 10 Santiago SE Chile 139 √ 7th largest exchange in derivatives2 Rank Country Contracts

Equity market

4

>300 market participants

T+2 settlement cycle

Direct market access (DMA) and Sponsored market access (SMA)

Listing and corporate governance reform (new corporate governance code developed together with OECD)

Opening and closing auctions

More than 210 issuers from key sectors of the economy

Market cap: USD 743 bln (as of 10 December 2019)

ADTV 11M2019: USD 753 mln

Source: Moscow Exchange

Page 5: Russian capital markets, Moscow Exchange trends and … · 2019-12-16 · 9 LSE Group UK 142 × 10 Santiago SE Chile 139 √ 7th largest exchange in derivatives2 Rank Country Contracts

Largest listed Russian companies

5

№ Company IndustryMarket

cap, USD bln

Share in total Market Cap,

%

1 Oil & Gas 92,4 12%

2 Banks & Finance 80,6 11%

3 Oil & Gas 74,7 10%

4 Oil & Gas 68,7 9%

5 Oil & Gas 59,7 8%

6 Metals & Mining 45,4 6%

7 Oil & Gas 31,1 4%

8 Oil & Gas 25,7 3%

9 Oil & Gas 24,3 3%

10 Metals & Mining 14,3 2%

Total TOP-10 517.1 70%

Market Cap as of 11.12.2019Source: Moscow Exchange

Composition of MOEX Index

50%

18%

15%

5%

5%

Oil & Gas

Electric Utilities

IT

Construction

Consumer

Financials

1%

Metals & Mining

3%

1%

Telecom

2%

Chemical

0%

Transport

IMOEX indice hit all-time high on November 07th

reaching the value over 3 000

Page 6: Russian capital markets, Moscow Exchange trends and … · 2019-12-16 · 9 LSE Group UK 142 × 10 Santiago SE Chile 139 √ 7th largest exchange in derivatives2 Rank Country Contracts

13,711,5 11,0 11,6 11,8

14,015,7 16,6

19,1

16,0 16,3

19,2

22,8

NOV 18 DEC 18 JAN 19 FEB 19 MAR 19 APR 19 MAY 19 JUN 19 JUL 19 AUG 19 SEP 19 OCT 19 NOV 19

TOTAL

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

RTS index

EQUITY MARKET: NOVEMBER 2019 HIGHLIGHTS

6

Total trading volume dynamics, $ bln

1 438,45

34,5 % YTD

RTSI as of November 30

48,1%

35,2%

8,3%

5,6%2,8%

Non-residents

Individuals

Dealers

Institutionals

Asset managers

Main mode turnover by client group

TOP performance MOEXBC (blue chips)

TickerFree-float1,

$ blnADTV, $ mln

Price YTD, %

GAZP 43,75 148,8 67,8

SNGS 6,14 19,3 64,1

YNDX 11,8 13,3 39,5

GMKN 16 38,8 30,7

MTSS 4,27 9,6 27,9

TOP performance MCXSM (small caps)

TickerFree-float1,

$ blnADTV,$ mln

Price YTD, %

OGKB 0,3 0,9 98,1

AFKS 0,8 3,8 87,5

MSRS 0,1 0,1 68,6

TGKA 0,1 0,5 55,2

RSTI 0,4 3,7 53,6

TOP-5 liquid stocks, $ mln

894

1 106

1 543

2 417

9 204

SURGUTNEFTEGAZ

NORNICKEL

LUKOIL

SBERBANK

GAZPROM

Page 7: Russian capital markets, Moscow Exchange trends and … · 2019-12-16 · 9 LSE Group UK 142 × 10 Santiago SE Chile 139 √ 7th largest exchange in derivatives2 Rank Country Contracts

Equity market indices return in 2019 YTD

7

Source: Bloomberg as of 06.12.2019. Return for 05.12.2019 / 31.12.2018

MSCI indices dynamics in USD

5%

JapanRussia IndiaBrazilUSA UKChina Germany South Africa

31%

25%

16% 16%15%

12%

8%

-3%

- Emerging markets - Developed markets

Page 8: Russian capital markets, Moscow Exchange trends and … · 2019-12-16 · 9 LSE Group UK 142 × 10 Santiago SE Chile 139 √ 7th largest exchange in derivatives2 Rank Country Contracts

Russian equities: high dividend yield

8

Emerging market indices dividend yield 2019E, %The most liquid Russian companies with

dividend yield >6% (2019E), %

Source: Bloomberg as of 10.12.2019, Sberbank CIB

Bloomberg estimate - 2019E dividend yield for emerging market indexes and Russian blue chips

7,0

4,0

3,7

3,4

3,2

3,0

2,6

2,2

1,5

S. Africa

Russia

Malaysia

Mexico

India

Turkey

Brazil

China

Indonesia

13,6

12,9

12,2

11,2

8,0

7,6

7,4

7,2

7,1

6,6

6,2

Tatneft

Seversteel

Gazprom

NLMK

MMK

Sberbank

Moscow Exchange

Alrosa

Nornickel

Rosneft

Lukoil

Page 9: Russian capital markets, Moscow Exchange trends and … · 2019-12-16 · 9 LSE Group UK 142 × 10 Santiago SE Chile 139 √ 7th largest exchange in derivatives2 Rank Country Contracts

9

StocksStocks

and goldStocks and

bonds

Stocks and bonds

31 16 are based on international law

15 are based on Russian law

Russian collective investment market November 2019

9 Countries on which our ETFs are based

Total:

85 89 101 110159

194

309

15

210

85 89 101 110

159

209

520

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 11М'2019

Asset under management, mln USD

0 3 310 9

2429

1

14

0,53,5 3,1

9,8 9,3

24,4

43,0

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 11М'19

Trading volume, bln RUB40

ETF

ETFs is based on international law

ETFs is based on Russian law

Stocks Stocks Stocks Stocks

+5%+13%

+9%+45%

+31%

x2,5

х7-11%

х3-5%

х2,6

9 11 11 12 12 15 16

2

15

9 11 11 12 1217

31

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 11М19

Russian-law ETF ETF

Page 10: Russian capital markets, Moscow Exchange trends and … · 2019-12-16 · 9 LSE Group UK 142 × 10 Santiago SE Chile 139 √ 7th largest exchange in derivatives2 Rank Country Contracts

Record inflow of retail investors to MOEX securities market: ~150 thousand new clients per month in 2019

Retail clients on securities market

unique clients, mln

New retail clients Individual Investment accounts (IIA)

Cumulative, thousand accountsunique clients, thousands

Source: Moscow Exchange - Clients are those of the Moscow Exchange.

2018

702

2015 2017 11M2019

106

252

1 622

+137%

+179%

89

196

301

597

1 450

2015 2016 Nov 20192017 2018

+120%

+54%

+98%

+143%

10

20172015 Nov 20192018

2,0

1,0

1,3

3,5

+30%

+49%

+80%

Page 11: Russian capital markets, Moscow Exchange trends and … · 2019-12-16 · 9 LSE Group UK 142 × 10 Santiago SE Chile 139 √ 7th largest exchange in derivatives2 Rank Country Contracts

Growing share of international investors on MOEX markets

11

Share of international investors in equities and derivatives trading on MOEX

Equities market Derivatives market

OFZ holdings of non-residents

Share of non-residents in OFZ

as of period end

Source: Moscow Exchange, CBR

44%

2013

50%

2015 2017 11М2019

48%

40%

2013-11M2019:

+10 p.p. Record

47%

2013 2015

40%

19%

2017

47%

11М2019

2013-8M2019:

+26 p.p.

4%

22%

2011

24%

2013

33%

2015 2017

24%

2018

32%

01.11.2019

33%Share of foreign investors in OFZ

secondary trading

Page 12: Russian capital markets, Moscow Exchange trends and … · 2019-12-16 · 9 LSE Group UK 142 × 10 Santiago SE Chile 139 √ 7th largest exchange in derivatives2 Rank Country Contracts

Reported international funds’ holdings of Russian equities is close to a pre-crisis level in 2013

12

Europe without UK%

UK%

USA and Canada%

WorldUSD bln

20172013

85.6

2015 9М2019

50.2

70.6

80.3

41%

20172013

49%

2015 9М2019

54%

52%

- Share in holdings

2015

21%

2013

22% 22%21%

2017 9М2019

2017

25%

2015

33%

2013

27%

9М2019

21%

Source: ThomsonONE – as of period end, including DRs on Russian shares

Page 13: Russian capital markets, Moscow Exchange trends and … · 2019-12-16 · 9 LSE Group UK 142 × 10 Santiago SE Chile 139 √ 7th largest exchange in derivatives2 Rank Country Contracts

Closing auction: modern technology for price discovery

13Source: Moscow Exchange data as of 25.09.2019

Statistics

Following the success of the Closing auction, MOEX launched Opening auction in June 2015

6 6 11 8 9 1010

10

10101116

9

9

12

11 1511 8 1112101214 9 91511121313101210

181814

181910

2118141417

12

40

252932

45

28

5651

2723

46

47 44

4244

33

48

34

86

5042

6762

0,0%

1,0%

2,0%

3,0%

4,0%

5,0%

6,0%

7,0%

8,0%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Value traded at closing auction, RUB bn (left axis)

As % of EOB volume (right axis)

FTSE decision on CA price usage MSCI decision on CA price usage

~$500mn traded in CA on FTSE August rebalance

Closing auction implementation brought MOEX infrastructure in line with the best practices;

FTSE started using MOEX Closing price in April 2015;

MSCI started using MOEX Closing price in October 2017;

A steady growth of Closing auction share in total Securities market turnover confirms foreign institutional

investors’ interest towards Russian market.

Quick facts

Last MSCI rebalancing was in August 2019

Page 14: Russian capital markets, Moscow Exchange trends and … · 2019-12-16 · 9 LSE Group UK 142 × 10 Santiago SE Chile 139 √ 7th largest exchange in derivatives2 Rank Country Contracts

Moscow is the liquidity center for Russian equities

14

Source: LiquidMetrix, Moscow Exchange, Bloomberg

MOEX vs LSE share

49%55% 58% 63%

69%

51%45% 42% 37%

31%

2016June 2013

11М20192014 2018

LSE MOEX

Record

Page 15: Russian capital markets, Moscow Exchange trends and … · 2019-12-16 · 9 LSE Group UK 142 × 10 Santiago SE Chile 139 √ 7th largest exchange in derivatives2 Rank Country Contracts

Disclaimer

15

This presentation has been prepared and issued by Public Joint Stock Company "Moscow Exchange MICEX-RTS" (the “Company”) – the entity

is not affiliated with Interactive Brokers LLC or any other FINRA broker-dealer.

The Company is the source for all data contained in this document. Such data is provided as at the date of this document and is subject to

change without notice.

This document does not constitute or form part of, and should not be construed as, an offer or invitation for the sale or subscription of, or a

solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for, any securities, nor shall it or any part of it or the fact of its distribution form the basis of, or be

relied on in connection with, any offer, contract, commitment or investment decision relating thereto, nor does it constitute a recommendation

regarding the securities of the Company.

The information in this document has not been independently verified. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and

no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. The information in

this document does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of

individual customers. Before acting on this information you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as

necessary, seek professional advice.

None of the Company, or any of its subsidiaries or affiliates or any of such person's directors, officers or employees, advisers or other

representatives, accepts any liability whatsoever (whether in negligence or otherwise) arising, directly or indirectly, from the use of this

document or otherwise arising in connection therewith.