LSE INAUGURAL LECTURE - EUROCRISIS@LSE LECTURE

Blaming Europe? Citizens, Governments and the Media

Sara B Hobolt

Sutherland Chair in European Institutions

London School of Economics and Political Science

s.b.hobolt@lse.ac.uk

Blaming Europe?

AFP Photo/Jose Jordan

Questions

1) How do citizens assign blame to the European

Union?

2) Do the media and governments shift blame to the

EU?

3) Can citizens hold the EU to account for policy

outcomes?

Attribution and Accountability

“Democracy is the process by which people choose the

man who'll get the blame.” - Bertrand Russell

Policy performance Vote choice

Attribution of responsibility

How do citizens assign blame?

Institutional reality versus individual biases?

Attribution of blame should reflect the division of

responsibility across levels of government

Especially when information is available

But citizens also rely on in-group biases (EU attitudes)

Selective attribution of blame: Europhiles absolve the EU of

blame, whereas Eurosceptics blame the EU for poor

performance

How do citizens assign blame?

Who is responsible?

Source: European Election Studies 2009 (N=27,000)

70

55

45

37

20

26

35 33

8

18 18

26

2 2 3 4

Health care Economy Immigration Interest rates

National Joint EU Nobody

Responsibility for interest rates

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Experts Public

Att

rib

uti

on

of

resp

on

sib

ilit

y t

o t

he E

U

Pegged to Eurozone

Unpegged

Eurozone

Source: European Election Studies 2009 (N=27,000) & Survey of EU experts

Impact of media coverage on the EU

When do citizens get it right?

-4 -3.5 -3 -2.5 -2 -1.5 -1

Newspaper EU visibility

TV EU visibility

Closeness to expert assignment on the

economy

High

exposure

Low

exposure

Source: European Election Studies 2009 & European Media Study 2009

Responsibility for the financial crisis (UK)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

% t

hin

k r

esp

on

sib

le fo

r fi

nan

cia

l cri

sis

US banks

EU

British government

Source: British Election Study, 2008-2012

Responsibility for the economy (UK)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

% t

hin

k a

ffects

th

e e

co

no

my t

he m

ost

Just British

government

Neither

EU or both

Source: British Election Study, 2004-2012

Blaming the EU for economic problems

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Britain France Spain Germany Poland

% b

lam

ing E

U f

or

eco

no

mic

pro

ble

ms

2012

2010

2011

Source: PEW survey data 2010, 2011 & 2012

Selective attribution of blame in the crisis

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Britain France Spain Germany Poland

EU

bla

med

fo

r eco

no

mic

pro

ble

ms EU supporter

EU opponent

Source: PEW survey data 2011

Selective attribution of blame for the crisis (UK)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

% t

hin

k E

U is

resp

on

sib

le fo

r fi

nan

cia

l cri

sis

EU supporter

EU opponent

Source: British Election Study

Summary:

How do citizens assign blame?

Citizens’ attribution of responsibility to the EU reflects

the institutional and political context

More blame of the EU as the euro crisis has unfolded

Newspaper consumption makes citizens betters able to assign

responsibility, and high levels of media coverage reduces biases

Selective attribution: blame also driven by attitudes

towards the EU

The Blame Game?

To what extent do national governments and the

national media assign blame to the EU?

Media blame attribution for the economy

0 10 20 30 40

European

Union

Other national

actors

National

government

% stories assigning responsibility

Newspapers

Television

Source: European Media Study 2009 (N=36,000 stories)

Assignment of responsibility for the economy, 2009

The Crisis: who is credited by governments?

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

UK Germany Ireland

National government

EU Other

Source: Content analysis of all PM speeches on the economy, 2008- 2012

The Crisis: who is blamed by governments?

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

UK Germany Ireland

Previous government

EU

Other

Source: Content analysis of all PM speeches on the economy, 2008- 2012

Summary:

Who do the media and governments blame?

The media covers the EU, but policy-specific coverage is

less common, and attribution of responsibility to the EU

is rare

Heads of Governments very rarely blame the EU, even

during the crisis. Instead we find:

Diffusion of responsibility – joint European responsibility

(“we are all in this together”)

Credit taking – national governments claiming credit for

policy outcomes

Can citizens hold the EU to account for

policy outcomes?

Accountability:

Punishing or rewarding governments for policy outcomes that

is their responsibility

Greater performance voting when there is “clarity of

responsibility” ~ identifiable government

Performance evaluation Vote choice

Attribution of responsibility

Clarity of responsibility

Accountability in a national context

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Lessresponsible

Moreresponsible

Lessresponsible

Moreresponsible

Lessresponsible

MoreresponsibleC

han

ge in

pro

pen

sity

to

vo

te f

or

govern

men

t p

arti

es

Medium clarity

systems

Low clarity

systems

High clarity

systems

Source: European Election Studies 2009 (N=27,000)

The economy moves from bad to good

Accountability in European elections

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Economy moves from bad to good

%

ch

an

ge in

EP

P v

ote

sh

are

EU more

responsible EU less

responsible

Source: European Election Studies 2009 (N=27,000)

Effect on trust in the EU

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Economy moves from bad to good

%

ch

an

ge in

tru

st in

EU

in

stit

uti

on

s

EU more

responsible

EU less

responsible

Source: European Election Studies 2009 (N=27,000)

Summary:

Can citizens hold the EU to account?

There is no evidence that citizens punish or rewards

MEPs for performance that the EU is deemed to be

responsible for:

The EU lacks a clearly identifiable “government party” in the EP

that voters can punish and reward

No clear link between the European Parliament vote and EU

executive

However, when citizens blame the EU for poor

performance that leads to lower levels of trust in EU

institutions

Implications

Lack of mechanisms for accountability in the EU

Reduced accountability for national governments

Consequences for the legitimacy of the EU

Aggravated by the crisis

Possible solutions to accountability deficit

Greater institutional clarity

Clearer divisions of competences

Greater government clarity

Government-Opposition politics in the European Parliament

Stronger link between parliamentary majority and the Commission or a directly elected Commission President

Greater transparency to make it more difficult for national politicians to diffuse blame/claim credit

“A fundamental deepening of the EMU must go hand in hand with greater democratic legitimacy. Wherever new competences are created at European level or closer coordination of national policies is established, full democratic control has to be ensured.”

Future of Europe Group (EU Foreign Ministers), 17 Sep 2012