road to the manifestos

MANIFESTOS

RO

AD

TO

TH

E

A strategic communications consultancy for the digital age.

We help major brands, governments, campaign organisations andhigh-profile individuals tell their story clearly and successfully.

We are trusted by corporate, public and not-for-profit clients to advise on strategic communications, public affairs and digital engagement.

But where we excel is bringing all these disciplines together for truly integrated campaigns.

Preface - Tim Allan

Manifestos in the age of limited choice - Michael Portillo

Why manifestos still matter (even if nobody reads them) - Alastair Campbell

The day after the election - Sam Sharps

The long road: what to expect between now and then

Battlegrounds of the next election - James O’Shaughnessy

How ideas are made - The manifesto process

Conservatives - James O’Shaughnessy

Liberal Democrats - Emma Coakley

Labour - Kevin McKeever

Warnings from history - Sam Sharps

Five lessons for anyone looking to achieve results in 2013-2015 - Oliver Pauley

Contents3

4

5

7

11

13

15

28

31

I am delighted to present Portland’s guide to the next two and a half years of political history. With less than half of the Parliament remaining, politics-watchers will

soon start to look less at the day-to-day business of government and more to the parties’ challenge ahead. And politicians – who started planning for the next election the morning after the last – will increasingly trade off short term results for long term advantage.

With the election on the horizon, Portland has taken a look at what might lie between now and 2015.

First, we have asked our own advisers Michael Portillo and Alastair Campbell, veterans of political battles gone by, to give us their perspectives on manifestos.

The next chapter sketches out the many potential election outcomes, all of which have a bearing on the three major party leaders’ strategies. Following that, a look at electoral history suggests little comfort for Cameron, Clegg or Miliband.

As much as strategy and positioning are all-consuming obsessions, the real issues matter more. Portland’s Chief Policy Adviser James O’Shaughnessy has provided an essay outlining the battleground: the policies that will matter and the voters for whom they are important.

We then take a look at the internal workings of each of the three main parties as they prepare and deliver their manifesto documents. By looking both at the people who will take the decisions, and the often idiosyncratic process the party requires ideas to be

Preface

fed through, we can begin to get an idea of when and how ideas turn to policies and policies to promises.

Watching all that unfold is a diverting, if niche pastime. But at a time when politicians of all parties are crying out for new ideas, and when decisions made now could have effects for years to come, our clients want to know how they can get to have a say as well. Portland Partner Oliver Pauley draws five lessons for the years 2013-15.

In 2015 it may not be apparent which business or organisations had the right communication strategy in 2012. Those who get 2013 right - or wrong - however - will be much easier to spot.

During 2013 Portland will be working with clients to ensure they get the most out of this crucial year. If you would like to discuss any of the material in the review in more detail, please do not hesitate to be in touch:

[email protected]

Tim AllanManaging Director, Portland

3 Preface

Manifestosin the age of

limitedchoice

Manifestos can be important. When in 1834 Sir Robert Peel read his from the windows of the town hall to his electors in Tamworth,

he effectively founded the Conservative Party, one that could adapt to a political landscape changed by industrialisation. In 1945 Labour promised – and then delivered – the welfare state, a National Health Service and the nationalisation of crucial industries. By promising council tenants the right to

buy their homes, Margaret Thatcher in 1979 showed an election-winning instinct for the aspirations of the working class. In the following election, Michael Foot’s manifesto was dubbed “the longest suicide note in history”, although since its most radical proposal was the nationalisation of banks, we can now smile at that description!

Partly because of Michael Foot’s calamitous electoral experience, parties have become risk averse. They eschew ideology. The main British parties have crowded together on the centre ground. None will promise us nationalisation, prices and wages policies, entry into the Euro, exit from the European Union, or an independent Scotland. They may not even pledge higher or lower rates of income tax.

Manifestos are now a liability to be exploited by an opponent rather than a clarion call to voters. If the figures don’t add up, if promises of even derisory sums of additional or reduced public expenditure cannot be itemised, a party’s campaign can become bogged down for days. More helpful for the electors to make a choice would be to know from each party simply whether it believes that government should grow proportionately smaller or larger.

The manifestos in the period after World War II have often talked of economic crisis, but they have all been written on the assumption of relentless economic growth. That helps to

explain why politicians have over-promised, leading us to massive levels of public and private debt. At the next election it will be interesting to see whether the manifestos recognise that stagnation may be all that lies ahead. Chief Secretary Danny Alexander took Jeremy Paxman’s breath away when, asked whether he would go into the next election promising cuts, he replied “Yes”.

At the next election you might think that the poor economic prospects make life impossible for the parties in the Coalition. Not necessarily. They can argue that they have been brave enough to court unpopularity, at least saving Britain from the plight of countries like Greece and Spain. Labour’s difficulties may intensify as the election approaches. Does the promise to increase borrowing and spending become more attractive or credible, as our deficits remain stubbornly high and our national debt

increases?

The Conservatives have made their bed and must lie in it. But Labour faces the agony of choice. So too do the Liberal Democrats. It won’t be easy to write a manifesto that justifies their record in government by lampooning Labour’s alternative, yet leaves the way open for coalition with the Eds should the opportunity arise. And there had better be no pledge, like that on student finance, that requires them afterwards to say: “I’m sorry”.

We may have passed through trauma, but this is no 1945. No party will propose a brave new world. Voters may wish to judge the manifestos by their earthy realism. In that sense, the party that promises least may offer most.

Manifestos are now a liability to be exploited by an opponent.

Michael Portillo

Whymanifestosstillmatter

Given the amount of time and effort that goes into producing election manifestos, the number of people who actually read them is

frighteningly small. Every campaign, parties make determined efforts to get them onto shelves but their sales hardly threaten JK Rowling or even the authors of well-known political diaries (still available in all good book shops)….

Political reporters, of course, have to wade through them, though in the era of the internet and instant 24 hour news some are passing judgement based on a skim read. Diplomats take a look at those of a party likely to win. Business leaders might try to digest the economic sections. Charities and causes will flick through to find bits relevant to them. You hope

your politicians might make

an effort although I am not certain many do. But as for the millions of voters who decide the election outcome…well for the overwhelming majority, life’s too short.

That does not mean manifestos can be dismissed as vanity publishing. Their contents shape the campaign and, you hope, your years in Government. Indeed, the tortuous process of drawing up your manifesto, the arguments and agreements reached on the way, are among the most important stages in politics.

The decision to rule out a rise in either the basic or top rate of income tax before the 1997 election was not just critical in persuading the country to trust us on the economy but set a direction for the Government. It also explains why the launch of the manifesto is a vital moment in any election campaign. It is each party’s day in the sun. Get it right and your campaign

5 Why manifestos still matter

Alastair Campbell

(even if nobody reads them)

momentum can be unstoppable. Get it wrong and it can be hard to recover – although we still managed to win in 2001 despite Sharon Storer haranguing Tony Blair outside a hospital, Jack Straw being slow-hand-clapped by the Police Federation, and John Prescott punching a protestor all somewhat taking the edge off our launch. So much for being a control-freak. Getting it right means more than a manifesto containing a policy for every issue or interest group – a mistake Labour made plenty of times in the past. It has to be a programme with direction and coherence. A strategy for Government, not just a package of (hopefully) attractive measures.

When we at Portland talk to our clients, we make clear

that a good

strategy should lend itself to be summed up in a word (think modernisation); a phrase (New Labour New Britain); a sentence (power, wealth and opportunity in the hands of the many, not the few) and a page (the famous five pledges) as well as in a speech or a pamphlet. That’s what the hours and days in drawing up a manifesto must allow. Nor can you forget what is in your manifesto when you arrive in Government.

Ask Nick Clegg what happens if you do. And what’s left out can be just as

dangerous as what’s included. Look at the problems the Tories are having by failing to mention that they intended to re-organise the NHS again.

Or how Cameron’s party opponents use the absence of gay marriage from the manifesto to oppose it.

A manifesto forces discipline on sometimes reluctant MPs and party. It is also important for the civil service who use what it contains as a guide to the likely policy requirements of a new Government. As soon as the manifesto is published, they will begin working on legislation. In the past, of course, the timetable for drawing up your manifesto was always something of a guess. You did not want to have your policies set in stone too early to provide an easy target for your opponents,

or have the ideas stolen.

But neither did you

The launch of the manifesto is a vital moment in any election campaign. Get it right and your campaign momentum can be unstoppable.

want to be rushing to agree them because a snap election had been called.

This uncertainty has, at least, disappeared now we have fixed parliamentary terms. As we reach the halfway stage between elections, we should see the party leaders setting out the framework into which their policies will fit. Ed Miliband has signalled his intention with his One Nation speech.Next he will have to work out detailed economic policy, something which the

government has sought to make into a problem with their incessant ‘all Labour’s fault/mess we inherited’ mantra, against which Labour have not pushed back hard enough. But there is time to develop and communicate strategy and policy in a way that builds credibility. That C word is so important. Neil Kinnock’s election chances never really recovered from the Tories demolishing John Smith’s shadow budget in the 1992 campaign, when attractive promises on child benefit and pensions were turned into a vicious and ruthless ‘double whammy’ ‘where’s the money coming from?’ campaign. Once the solid economic foundations are laid, the other issues can be addressed in detail. Governments have to develop and enact policy all the time. Oppositions have a little more time. But we are now entering the stage when the Road to the Manifesto begins. Decisions made now, as the policy review progresses, will shape the final document and, even if the readership figures are low, its contents will go a long way towards deciding whether David Cameron or Ed Miliband is Prime Minister in 2015.

Thedayaftertheelection

In May 2015 the voters of the United Kingdom (assuming such an entity still exists) will deliver their verdict on the current Government and choose the next one. After three decades of decisive

majorities, the 2010 election marked a new shift into a more complex political scene in which no party seems ready to sweep to power.

For that reason, those preparing for 2015 need to consider all manner of outcomes. Seven seem plausible:

1. The Coalition rejectedOutright Labour win

2. Cameron the leaderOutright Conservative win

3 & 4. The Liberal Democrat deal-makersLib/Con coalition or Lib/Lab coalition

5. A new left wing coalition?Labour/SNP/others in coalition

6 & 7. Going it aloneLabour/Conservative minority administration

7 The day after the election

Sam Sharps

With a double-digit lead in the opinion polls, an electoral system stacked in its favour and the economy headed

for modest growth at best, Ed Miliband’s Labour party might expect to be halfway down Downing Street by now. Indeed the bookies now make Labour the favourites to form the next government – although as we examine later in this document, the party’s lead in the polls is less than commanding at this stage of a Parliament.

However, Mr Miliband’s credentials as a Prime Minister-in-waiting are not universally accepted: according to Ipsos MORI, by January 2013 he had crept to a -12% overall

satisfaction rating, which put him ahead of his rival party leaders but hardly suggests a nation desperate to see him in Number 10. It is the Labour leader’s personal profile, along with that of his Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls, which the Tories will look to pick away at as the election comes closer. By holding up the prospect of Britain waking up under Prime Minister Miliband, the supposed disloyal brother and puppet of the Trade Unions, the Conservatives will look to chip away at voter

The Coalitionrejected1. Outright Labour win

confidence in Labour. His 2012 conference speech went some way towards ‘normalising’ him, but his skills and credibility as a leader will be under near-constant media scrutiny as 2015 approaches.

Labour will be looking to stand up to this assault and present itself as a credible government in waiting. As it develops a platform for the next election, the challenge for the party, one

which it has historically struggled to pull off, is to appear financially competent as well as socially fair.

Cameronthe leader2. Outright Conservative win

2015 will see the larger coalition partner seeking a mandate to run a majority government. Such an outcome seems

entirely possible if Liberal Democrat voters feel let down but Labour seems unelectable.

However, David Cameron’s route to a full-blown mandate looks strewn with hazards. He will know that a second failure to win a proper majority could prove fatal to his leadership of the party.

What seems clear is that an appeal to the Conservative base is not likely to succeed. Some Tories may be tempted to promise voters that the Coalition’s record would have

been much more true blue without Liberal Democrat influence and that a ‘pure’ Tory government is now on offer. Centre ground voters, though, failed to endorse that vision in 2010 and there is no strong reason to think they will do so this time around.

While Mr Cameron will want to shore up perceptions of the Tories as the fiscally responsible, law and order party, he should be wary of pandering to the Right with aggressive tax and spending cuts or too

obsessive a focus on Europe.

His policy on renegotiation of European treaties followed by a referendum serves

A second failure to win a proper majority could prove fatal to Cameron’s leadership of the party.

the dual purpose of winning votes from Eurosceptics but also quieting some of his own party.

So the challenge for the Conservatives is to generate a fresh plan for the country and a convincing version of progress. After the grim-but-determined face of 2010, Mr Cameron must now present a compelling vision of how the country can emerge from austerity stronger and brighter.

Miliband’s skills and credibility as a leader will be under near-constant media scrutiny as 2015 approaches.

Should the British electorate again fail to deliver a decisive verdict, the Liberal Democrats will once

more be looked to in order to form a government. From comments by Simon Hughes at their 2012 conference, it seems clear the party is already contemplating a future coalition either with the Conservatives or Labour. After five years of partnership with the Tories, an extension would clearly be preferable to returning to opposition, although many party members would prefer to see themselves in alliance with Labour.

Nick Clegg’s strategic challenge is therefore to shape the set of policies which gives the

Westminster-watchers are easily fooled into believing the last two years have seen the flowering of a

three party system. In fact there is another party in power in Britain. The Scottish National Party has slowly established itself as something approaching a natural party of government north of the border.

In the event of a ‘no’ vote in the independence referendum, the SNP’s primary reason for existence in the Westminster

setting will be snuffed out. But its track record as a competent social democratic party might just point the way to a new

purpose on the British scene. A handful of Scottish Nationalist MPs - perhaps even with Plaid Cymru and Green MPs similarly falling in - could make the weight necessary for a broad-left coalition. Such a volatile

combination would not be an obvious first choice for those seeking a stable government and the SNP would likely look for leverage on some future push for detatchment from the UK, which would make their involvement even more

deal-makersThe Liberal Democrat3 & 4. Lib/Con coalition or

Lib/Lab coaltion

coalition?A new left wing5.

Lib Dems the biggest impact in another coalition while not closing the door on either party.

The Lib Dems will not enter negotiations with the same ‘red lines’ as they adopted in 2010. After the lost referendum, the voting system

remains unchanged and unlikely to face further attention. Reform of the House of Lords may come back on the agenda, but such issues,

while important to the party faithful, are not ones with mainstream political appeal. An Ipsos MORI poll last year found that 72% of British adults agreed with the statement “I support reforming the House of Lords, but

there are more important things that the Government should be concentrating on at the moment”.

Consequently it may be that the major Lib Dem objectives in a coalition - both positive ideas and things they will implacably oppose - are social, environmental or economic in character. Selling out on a policy like tuition fees this time around seems utterly unthinkable. It could be that protection for civil liberties, already a behind-the-scenes area of tension in this Government, becomes the basis for a Liberal Democrat settlement with one of the other two parties.

The Lib Dems will not enter negotiations with the same ‘red lines’ as they adopted in 2010.

9 The day after the election

problematic. But it is not entirely implausible that they might play a hand in governing in Westminster as well as Holyrood. An equivalent right-leaning coalition, meanwhile, with maybe a future UKIP MP and Ulster representation, seems too far-fetched a prospect to contemplate.

The Scottish National Party has slowly established itself as something approaching a natural party of government north of the border.

Labour/SNP/others

Lib/Con coalition or Lib/Lab coaltion alone

If, as seems entirely possible, either Labour or the Conservatives falls just short of an overall majority, they may not

rush to form a formal coalition, but rather seek to maintain a minority government for at least some of the period up to 2020. A ‘confidence and supply’ arrangement with any party, whether the Lib Dems, SNP or one of the Northern Ireland parties, could see the Government through budget votes and other crucial moments.

The danger of governing in this way would be the instability that comes with trying to rule without the certainty that Parliament can

Going it6 & 7.

deliver the legislation the Government wants, and the resulting Ministerial time wasted negotiating inside Westminster. Moreover, in the current climate, the perception of instability in the UK political system might

be considered too dangerous. One of the major reasons David Cameron felt under pressure to resolve the

outcome of the 2010 election was that the UK’s credit rating would be put under threat and its cost of borrowing rapidly increased if no solid-looking arrangement could be put in place.

Labour/Conservative minority administration

The perception of instability in the UK political system might be considered too dangerous.

Such an arrangement would place even more pressure on the leadership skills of Mr Cameron or Mr Miliband, and force either man to tone down their ideal programme for government while strengthening the hand of the Opposition. However, a minority government cannot be ruled out. The two leaders may indeed view such an outcome as a stepping stone to something more permanent, although the Fixed Term Parliaments Act makes a snap election more difficult to manage.

The coalition partners’ relationship has shown some strain over specific issues, such as electoral reform,

House of Lords reform, and the Communications Data Bill. Each of these has led to a slight re-calibration of the foundations of government, to the extent that commentators variously believe we are already on Coalition 2.0 or even 3.0.

However, it seems likely that with slight adjustments we are still in for a full year of best-efforts coalition government before the two parties begin the long period of separation. 2013 will still be a year of coalition, even as the policy development goes on behind closed doors.

2014 will see the process of government drift into a ‘confidence and supply’

The

Springconference and

Budget

Queen’s Speech

G8 Summit at Lough Erne

G20 leaders summitParty Conferences

Autumn Statement

Spring conferences

Last full year’s BudgetLatest date for

spending review

Party conferences

Last growth figures before the election.Final BudgetParliament dissolved

Manifestos published

Local andEuropean elections

20152015

20152014

20152013

GENERAL

MAY

ELECTION

CampaigningDifferentiationCoalition

MAY

JUN

SEP

DEC

MAR

JUN

MAR

APR

SEP

APR

MAR

Last Queen’sSpeech for this

Parliament

MAY

11 The long road

arrangement with fewer legislative ambitions. The parties’ increasing search for differentiation will come to a head by the time of the European and London elections, with all three leaders looking to secure some momentum. By the time of the 2014 party conferences, the election run in will have begun. 2015 will see three parties in full campaign mode.

longroad

Springconference and

Budget

Queen’s Speech

G8 Summit at Lough Erne

G20 leaders summitParty Conferences

Autumn Statement

Spring conferences

Last full year’s BudgetLatest date for

spending review

Party conferences

Last growth figures before the election.Final BudgetParliament dissolved

Manifestos published

Local andEuropean elections

20152015

20152014

20152013

GENERAL

MAY

ELECTION

CampaigningDifferentiationCoalition

MAY

JUN

SEP

DEC

MAR

JUN

MAR

APR

SEP

APR

MAR

Last Queen’sSpeech for this

Parliament

MAY

Battlegroundsofthe

election

The battle lines of the next election are starting to become clearer thanks to four significant political moments in the last quarter of 2012. In

October, the three party leaders used their conference speeches, each high calibre in different ways, to set out their parties’ political strategies for the second half of the Parliament. And the year ended with a highly political Autumn Statement, the reverberations of which will be felt until the

2015 general election and beyond.

Let us begin with the conference speeches and take them in reverse order. Conservative leaders have the huge advantage of going last, meaning they can respond to their rivals and have the final word of the conference season. Prime Minister David Cameron used this opportunity to great effect, providing in his speech a new level of strategic clarity. While reprising his pitch to core Tory voters (immigration, Euroscepticism) and metropolitan liberals (gay marriage, public service reform), he opened a new and significant flank in the Conservative agenda – a full-throated appeal to what he described as Britain’s “strivers”, those people and families who work hard and do the right thing.

Cameron has studied the electoral history of Thatcher and Disraeli and knows that a Conservative majority simply cannot be delivered without blue-collar voters. More particularly, he believes that victory will require the support of women in working families. His appeal has three parts. Firstly, the benefits cap is designed to assuage the feeling held by many voters that they struggle on while benefit recipients get ‘something for nothing’. Secondly, the message on the deficit, while undoubtedly

bitter medicine, is meant to show that only Cameron’s leadership is tough enough to see the country through the economic dark times. This potentially gloomy prospectus is leavened by the third part of Cameron’s appeal: school reform. This is about providing a sense of hope and optimism that we can re-educate ourselves back into contention in the global race. Cameron hopes this combination of leadership, fairness and hope for the future will be enough to persuade the strivers to back him.

This is, of course, familiar territory for Labour leader Ed Miliband. He was onto the issue of the ‘squeezed middle’ very soon after he was elected, and before any of the other party leaders. Miliband knows that the next election will be won by the party that can best persuade middle England that

next

it has their interests at heart. He intends to put living standards at the heart of his election campaign by arguing that the Coalition has failed to improve the lives of Britain’s hard-working families. He has made the initial weather on issues such as energy bills and, when he can resist the temptation to indulge in high-minded philosophising, has a keen eye for consumer issues. This is territory that Gordon Brown claimed very successfully in the run up to New Labour’s spectacular 1997 election victory, based on

a message that only Labour can be trusted to make markets work to the benefit of consumers rather than big companies. This is smack in the centre ground of British politics and Miliband would be well advised to stay there.

Miliband’s Disraelian One Nation rhetoric is clever positioning, not only because it was an appeal to the common values that define the British middle-classes, but also because it provides the counterpoint to his argument that the Tories are out of touch ‘toffs’ with no understanding of how the average voter lives. This is a toxic association that Conservatives dread, and which they have been fighting to jettison ever since the 2012 Budget cut the top rate of tax. However, Miliband should bear in mind that Labour’s Achilles heel is the electorate’s sense that they are on the side of the scroungers and

James O’Shaughnessy

13 Battlegrounds of the next election

undeserving poor, which is exactly why the Chancellor challenged them to vote against his plans to limit the increase in benefits. On any question like this, Labour risk offending many of the striving classes for whom the government can never be tough enough on welfare.

The challenge for Nick Clegg is, and will remain, to stay relevant. The Liberal Democrats’ raison d’etre is to participate in coalition governments and they need to demonstrate that the role of the party is more than simply to prop up the dominant

The challenge for Nick Clegg is, and will remain, to stay relevant.

major party with lobby fodder. This is the heart of Clegg’s strategy. He did a good job of highlighting not only the ‘wins’ his party have achieved over the last three years, particularly on green policies and the increase in the income tax threshold, but also how he had reined in some of the Conservatives’ more radical policy suggestions, for example on freezing benefits or scrapping employment regulations. His pitch to voters in 2015 will be that the Liberal Democrats are not only tough enough to be in government, but that they also moderate the agenda of whichever of the two main parties is in power. Clegg’s position on the boundary review is highly significant here. He feels wronged by the Conservatives’ failure to

deliver Lords reform and is determined to show that he cannot be rolled over. In theory, at least, this pragmatic centrism has electoral appeal and should position his party well for the possibility of a hung Parliament in 2015.

And that is the electoral outcome that still appears to be the most likely. The failure of the boundary review means the Conservatives have to win by at least eight percentage points for a majority of one.

Labour undoubtedly hold a significant

advantage now the old boundaries are staying in place,

and are consistently ten points ahead in the polls. But we know that the next election, like most others before it, will be won by the party that is most trusted on

the economy and whose leaders have the highest ratings. The Conservatives still inch ahead in these stakes, which is what gives them confidence that an unlikely comeback is possible.

Paradoxically, given the bad news he had to convey, the Conservatives’ confidence received a significant boost from the Chancellor’s Autumn Statement. The extension of austerity well into the next Parliament piles pressure onto Labour. Do they promise to stick to the Coalition’s spending plans, as New Labour did in 1997, and in doing so dismay many in their party and the unions? Or, do they promise to tax and spend more as John Smith did in his memorable shadow Budget before the disastrous 1992 general election? This is the hardest decision that any Opposition leader has to make, and most flunk it. Cameron and Osborne want to run a campaign along the line of “Britain’s on the right track, don’t

turn back”. Labour need to demonstrate that they have learnt their lessons and can be trusted with the economy and public finances once more. This is the fight that will determine the makeup of the next government, and it promises to be a long and bitter one.

Howideasaremade

The manifesto process

ConservativesJames O’Shaughnessy

Liberal DemocratsEmma Coakley

LabourKevin McKeever

15 How ideas are made

The process of drawing up a manifesto is considerably different once a party is in government. Unlike in opposition, where a political party’s primary focus

is the next election, being in power means senior members of the party are engaged in Ministerial positions and simply do not have the time to devote to future policy development. By this point in the last

Parliament the Conservative Party was producing a series of detailed policy green papers across a range of issues that went on to form the basis of the 2010 manifesto. It will not undertake a similar exercise this time until much nearer election day.

To understand how the Conservatives will develop their 2015 election manifesto it is helpful to look at Labour’s policy development process in the years preceding the 2010 election. Ed Miliband, Energy Secretary under Gordon Brown, led the development

of the document for three years but activity accelerated significantly in the last 18 months. The significant government documents that foreshadowed the manifesto were both produced in 2009 – Chancellor Alistair Darling’s Spring Budget, and the wide-ranging statement of government policy, Building Britain’s Future, that was published shortly afterwards.

Drawing on that analogy, it is reasonable to assume that Oliver Letwin will take on the coordinator role for the Conservatives ahead of 2015, potentially supported by some of the up-and-coming younger Ministers. We can also look ahead to the 2014 Budget and Queen’s Speech being important political moments that will frame the 2015 general election and seek to provide popular policies that cut through with the electorate.

Conservatives

The process


Senior members of the party are engaged in ministerial positions and simply do not have the time.

James O’Shaughnessy

Councillors • The 40 Group • 1922 Backbench Comm

ittee • Boris Johnson

The “Tory Right” • Grassroots Members• Blue Collar Conservatism G

roup

Fleet Street - The Sun, The Telegraph, Daily Mail • Free Enterprise G

roup

Conservative Home • CCH

Q

THE CONSERVATIVE FAMILY

INFL

UEN

TIAL

MIN

ISTERS & ADVISERS

CABINET & SENIOR MINISTERS

EXTERN

AL

INFL

UE

NC

ES

Stephen GilbertPolitical Secretary

The Key Players

Ameet GillHead of Planning

Oliver DowdenPM’s Deputy Chief of Staff

Oliver Letwin MPMinister for

Government Policy

Andrew CooperDirector of Strategy

Patrick RockPolicy Advisor

Clare FogesSpeechwriter

Craig OliverNo.10 Director

of Communications

Lynton CrosbyElection Campaign

Strategist

Liz SuggHead of Operations

Ed LlewellynPM’s Chief of Staff

Rohan SilvaSenior Policy Advisor

Kate FallPM’s Deputy Chief of

Staff

Rupert HarrisonCHX’s Chief of Staff

Des

Sw

ayne

• H

elen

Gra

nt •

Jo

John

son

• G

reg H

ands • John Hayes • M

atthew Hancock

Nic

k B

oles

• M

ark

Har

per •

Greg C

lark •

Sam Gyimah •

Mark Prisk

Nic

ky M

orga

n •

Saj

id J

avid

• M

ark Hoban • Ed Vaizey

Edw

ard

Tim

pson

•

Liz Tru

ss •

Policy SpAds

Sir G

eorge Young • D

ominic Grieve • Justine Greening • Baroness Warsi • David Mundell • Ken Clarke

Francis Maude • Philip Ham

mond • Theresa Villiers • David Lidington • Michael Fallon • Andrew Lansley

Pa

trick McL

ou

gh

lin • Chris Grayling • Eric Pickles • Owen Paterson • Maria Miller • David Willetts

Jeremy H

unt • Michael Gove • Iain Duncan Smith • Theresa May • Grant Shapps

Matth

ew D

’Anc

ona •

Ian

Birr

ell •

Dan

ny F

inke

lste

in

Steve

Hilt

on •

Po

licy

Exch

ange

No.10 B

usines

s Adv

isor

y G

roup

• C

BI,

IoD

, FS

B

Neil O’BrienCHX’s Election Advisor

The Conservative message at the general election will be straightforward: “Britain’s on the right track, don’t turn back”. The Prime Minister and Chancellor believe that this message enabled President Obama to win in very difficult circumstances, enabling him to point to his opposition and claim that they had not changed and couldn’t be trusted with an economy that they had wrecked in the first place. This is exactly the position the Conservatives want to put Labour in, and it is why Cameron chose three issues in his party conference speech – deficit, welfare reform, and schools – where he thinks Labour are on the wrong side of public opinion.

He will look during 2013 to widen that gap in perception. The exact shape of policy, though, will still be in development during the year, before the campaign moves into the next phase.

To deliver that campaign the Conservatives have taken the controversial decision to bring back legendary campaigner Lynton Crosby. Crosby has a superb record, delivering several Australian general election victories for John Howard and two successful mayoral campaigns for Boris Johnson. He is very popular with staffers and will bring discipline to the campaign. However, his reputation in the UK is indelibly linked to some divisive (and unsuccessful) messages that Michael Howard’s Conservative Party used in the 2005 campaign.

Crosby will work part-time at first before going full-time in the run-up to the election.

Despite mischief-making by some opponents, his appointment was sanctioned by George Osborne, who ran the 2010 campaign and will spearhead the 2015 campaign too.

Crosby will operate in tandem with the new, campaigning chairman of the Conservative Party, Grant Shapps. Shapps has symbolically set up a countdown clock to the election in CCHQ and begun formulating his plan for a 40/40 campaign, focusing on 40 existing Conservative marginal seats and 40 potential gains. Many of the 40 marginal seats are currently held by Liberal Democrats (such as Lorely Burt’s in Solihull) with Shapps insisting there would be “no mercy” in the Conservatives’ targeting of Lib Dem seats despite being in coalition.

Campaign plans

The risk factor: issues that could influence the 2015 result

Anaemic growth and the potential for unemployment to rise once more

Jeopardising economic credibility by missing fiscal targets

Rising energy prices and general inflation, particularly in food prices

Holding on to the new-found unity on European strategy following David Cameron’s promise of an in-out referendum

Reduction in the top rate of tax and a reputation for being ‘out of touch’

Unpopularity of NHS reform

Implementation of the Universal Credit, potential for major IT disaster

Scottish independence

Local opposition to new development, particularly on the green belt


Segment Who are they?What do they care

about? Campaign challenge

Core Conservative Party vote

The Shires, small business owners,

retired people.

Europe, crime, immigration,

pensioner benefits, fiscal discipline,

low taxes.

Defend the base, particularly from

UKIP advances over Europe. Pick up

rural seats held by Liberal Democrats

in the Eurosceptic South West, such

as Wells and Somerton and Frome,

and hold onto South West marginals

such as George Eustice at Camborne

and Redruth.

The ‘strivers’Lower middle class, aspirational,

focus on women. Key battleground

with Labour.

Employment, living standards,

benefits cap, childcare, welfare

reform, crime, immigration, schools,

protect NHS, energy prices.

Compete with Labour to prove they

are the party standing up for those

“who do the right thing and play by

the rules”. Hold onto seats such as

Thurrock and Harlow in Essex and

pick up seats narrowly missed at last

election such as Wirral South and

Bolton West. Win more urban seats in

Midlands and North.

Liberal, metropolitan voters

Leafy suburbs, three way marginals,

Lib Dem seats in South West

London.

Gay marriage, flexible parental leave,

NHS spending, pensioner benefits,

overseas aid.

Continue the ‘modernisation’ project

and pick up seats from both Labour

and disaffected Liberal Democrat

voters such as Hampstead and

Kilburn, Birmingham Edgbaston and

Sutton and Cheam.

The key audiences

Messages

The Liberal Democrat policy-making process is very democratic in character with ultimate approval on official policy

being put to party members. This ethos is carried through to the manifesto process. The Federal Policy Committee (FPC), the group with ultimate responsibility for the manifesto, is made up of, and elected by, party members.

In 2010 the process ran as follows: the manifesto working group presented a

draft to the Shadow Cabinet, which then presented an amended draft to the Federal Policy Committee (FPC). In reality, this was a cyclical, iterative process in which the draft cycled around the three groups,

being amended and refined as it progressed. Whilst the process is likely to be slightly different for 2015, the broad structure will remain the same.

The working draft of the manifesto is coordinated by the manifesto working group, with input from many different sources. But ultimately the FPC has the final say on the manifesto. It is likely

that no draft of the manifesto will actually be produced until well into 2014, but there are several stages of the process that lead up to that point.

Back in August 2010, the FPC commissioned Facing the Future, a major agenda setting exercise on policy development throughout this Parliament and into the next, chaired by Norman Lamb MP.

This was debated at Conference 2010, amended and finally approved at Conference 2011. It identified a total of fifteen areas for focus in the future:

1. Taxation

2. Sustainable sources of growth and jobs

3. Housing, tackling inequality and improving

social mobility

4. Working families

5. Defence

6. Europe

7. Immigration and identity

8. Public services

9. Skills and post-16 education

10. Transition to zero carbon Britain

11. Gender equality

12. Political reform and participation

13. Crime and justice

14. Mutualisation and employee ownership

15. Challenges and opportunities of an ageing

population

Liberal Democrats

Emma Coakley


It is likely that no draft of the Lib Dem manifesto will be produced until well into 2014.

In many cases these individual issues will be taken forward through formal Policy Working Groups, which will result in

policy papers presented to and debated at the Party Conferences over the next few years (2013-14).

Campaign plansMuch to the disappointment of large sections of the membership who would like to return to opposition and reclaim the ‘party of protest’ identity, the goal for 2015 is to hang on to as many seats as possible and end up back in Government as part of a Coalition.

In theory the leadership remains open to coalition with either the Conservatives or Labour, and bridges with Labour are beginning to be rebuilt after the perceived betrayal over electoral reform. On issues such as Europe and the boundary review,

Labour and the Lib Dems are finding common ground, and the personal relationship between Clegg and and Miliband is thawing.

Ultimately, whether the preference is for Labour or the Conservatives depends on who you ask. But the message will be clear – the Lib Dems represent a real party of Government with a strong record of delivery, and voters no longer need to be afraid of coalitions.

Recruiting Paddy Ashdown to run the

campaign is a popular move, and is guaranteed to buoy the activists, and even lure back some voters who deserted after

the election. It is likely that Jonny Oates, currently Nick Clegg’s Chief of

Staff at the Cabinet Office, will reprise his 2010 role as Director of General Election Communications, a move that will be popular with Party staff.

Nick Clegg’s recent set piece speeches have reasserted his belief that the Party needs to stop talking about whether it is ‘left’ or ‘right’ and instead focus on seizing the centre - where elections are won and lost.

The Party’s key message going into the election will be ‘A stronger economy in a fairer society, so that everyone can get on in life’ - a development of the strategy to outdo Labour on the economy and the Tories on

fairness. This strategy relies on the economy recovering, and recovering soon - something which looks less likely with each set of disappointing GDP figures. It also relies on the Conservatives moving faster and further to the right and alienating one of their key target groups – the ‘strivers’ or, as the Lib Dems call them, ‘alarm clock Britain’.

In reality, the Lib Dems know that they have an almighty fight on their hands just to

save what they have before they can think about new target seats. This means securing what is left of the grassroots support, who favour traditionally ‘left’ leaning policies like constitutional reform, renewable energy, and scrapping Trident. Balancing what they want to hear with what ‘alarm clock Britain’ wants to hear will be a tough challenge.

Messages and audiences

The message will be clear: the Lib Dems represent a real party of Government.

Mackenzie has returned to Downing Street following maternity leave, where she acts as the chief Lib Dem policy gatekeeper and senior adviser to Clegg. She will work closely with Julian Astle and the manifesto working group to control the manifesto process.

Polly Mackenzie

The Lib Dem grandee has been tasked by Nick Clegg with leading the party’s General Election campaign. This move anticipates a challenging election, where the efforts of local activists will be more important than ever. Ashdown’s presence will motivate and invigorate the grassroots.

Paddy Ashdown

David LawsAs chair of the manifesto working group for 2015, Laws is the central coordinator for the whole process. Well-respected across the Coalition and popular within the Party, he is an ideal candidate to take on this sensitive and challenging role.

The former Fleet Street journalist and Director of liberal think tank Centre Forum was heading up Lib Dem Policy at No. 10 on maternity cover for Polly Mackenzie. He has now moved to become Special Adviser to David Laws and will play a critical role supporting him in his position as Chair of the Manifesto Working Group.

Julian Astle

HQ staff Their role is primarily about helping to ensure the process works smoothly, and to sense-check the

text and calculations, but their detailed knowledge of conference policy and the machinery of the

Party makes them a vital part of the process. Key contacts include Christian Moon, Adam Pritchard

and Bess Mayhew.

Manifesto working groupChaired by Danny Alexander for the 2010 election, this group will be chaired by David Laws for the 2015 manifesto. Other members will be:

Sharon Bowles MEP, Vice-ChairDuncan Brack, Vice-Chair (FPC Vice-Chair)Nick Clegg MP (Leader, FPC Member)Tim Farron MP (President, FPC Member)Duncan Hames MP (FPC Chair)

Cllr Dr Julie Smith (FPC Vice-Chair)Dr Julian Huppert MP (FPC Vice-Chair)Jenny Willott MP (FPC Member)Baroness Sal Brinton (FPC Member)Jo Swinson MPLord John Shipley

The manifesto working group will set the overall key messages and theme for the manifesto and is responsible for drafting the document. They ensure that the manifesto stays closely aligned to the priorities of the party, and keep an eye on how it will be received in the media and by the wider public. Constitutionally, they are answerable to the FPC, but they coordinate feedback from all angles and informally consult with the wider party. The appointment of David Laws, noted for his economic skills, signifies how important the economic credibility of the manifesto will be. Recent reports suggest that Laws may be keeping the manifesto intentionally ‘lighter’ than in previous years – a product of his experience of negotiating the Coalition Agreement in aftermath of 2010, and in anticipation of a similar outcome in 2015.

The key players

Mackenzie has returned to Downing Street following maternity leave, where she acts as the chief Lib Dem policy gatekeeper and senior adviser to Clegg. She will work closely with Julian Astle and the manifesto working group to control the manifesto process.

Polly Mackenzie

The Lib Dem grandee has been tasked by Nick Clegg with leading the party’s General Election campaign. This move anticipates a challenging election, where the efforts of local activists will be more important than ever. Ashdown’s presence will motivate and invigorate the grassroots.

Paddy Ashdown

David LawsAs chair of the manifesto working group for 2015, Laws is the central coordinator for the whole process. Well-respected across the Coalition and popular within the Party, he is an ideal candidate to take on this sensitive and challenging role.

The former Fleet Street journalist and Director of liberal think tank Centre Forum was heading up Lib Dem Policy at No. 10 on maternity cover for Polly Mackenzie. He has now moved to become Special Adviser to David Laws and will play a critical role supporting him in his position as Chair of the Manifesto Working Group.

Julian Astle

HQ staff Their role is primarily about helping to ensure the process works smoothly, and to sense-check the

text and calculations, but their detailed knowledge of conference policy and the machinery of the

Party makes them a vital part of the process. Key contacts include Christian Moon, Adam Pritchard

and Bess Mayhew.

Manifesto working groupChaired by Danny Alexander for the 2010 election, this group will be chaired by David Laws for the 2015 manifesto. Other members will be:

Sharon Bowles MEP, Vice-ChairDuncan Brack, Vice-Chair (FPC Vice-Chair)Nick Clegg MP (Leader, FPC Member)Tim Farron MP (President, FPC Member)Duncan Hames MP (FPC Chair)

Cllr Dr Julie Smith (FPC Vice-Chair)Dr Julian Huppert MP (FPC Vice-Chair)Jenny Willott MP (FPC Member)Baroness Sal Brinton (FPC Member)Jo Swinson MPLord John Shipley

The manifesto working group will set the overall key messages and theme for the manifesto and is responsible for drafting the document. They ensure that the manifesto stays closely aligned to the priorities of the party, and keep an eye on how it will be received in the media and by the wider public. Constitutionally, they are answerable to the FPC, but they coordinate feedback from all angles and informally consult with the wider party. The appointment of David Laws, noted for his economic skills, signifies how important the economic credibility of the manifesto will be. Recent reports suggest that Laws may be keeping the manifesto intentionally ‘lighter’ than in previous years – a product of his experience of negotiating the Coalition Agreement in aftermath of 2010, and in anticipation of a similar outcome in 2015.

MANIFESTO WORKING GROUP

FEDER

AL P

OLIC

Y CO

MM

ITTEE

Chaired by Danny Alexander in 2010, this group will probably be chaired by David Laws for the 2015 manifesto.

Other members typically include Nick Clegg, other senior MPs (e.g. Vince Cable, Ed Davey) and the Chair and Vice-Chairs of FPC.

In reality, the manifesto working group wil set the overall key messages and theme for the manifesto.

They ensure that the manifesto stays closely aligned to the priorities of the party, and keep an eye on how it will be received in

the media and by the wider public, rather than on the Party membership. In the run up to the 2010 manifesto, there were tensions between the manifesto working group and the FPC.

Individual MPs, Peers, MEPs and devolved parties feed in policy informally through the manifesto working group and other channels.

Those who hold more formal roles, such as the Chairs of the backbench

policy committees will also be consulted on policies relevant to their responsibility, or policies specific to

their jurisdiction, such as Wales, Scotland or Europe.

Official conference policy - policy is voted on by the party membership

at conference every year. Once voted through, conference policy cannot be contradicted.

Not all conference policy will make it into the manifesto, and not

necessarily all manifesto content will be conference policy, but it is

very unlikely that any policies which are contrary to conference policy

would be included.

Policy advisers - the Lib Dem Special Advisers in Government as well as key policy managers

working in HQ will provide much of the meat on the bones of the

manifesto - helping to cost policies, balance the books, and

define the detail.

The HQ policy unit is smaller as a result of no opposition ‘short

money’ but it is likely that the Party will look to expand this team as we

approach 2015.

The Federal Policy Committee (FPC) is responsible for the production of the policy papers that are debated by Conference, as well as

officially responsible for producing the manifesto. Elections to the FPC are held every two years – the latest round was held in October 2012.

The current make-up of the FPC has shifted somewhat toward the party mainstream following the latest elections, with the addition of

Julia Church (Special Adviser to Danny Alexander), Duncan Brack (ex-Special Adviser to Chris Huhne), Chris Rennard (ex-Chief Execu-tive), Lords Willis, Wallace and Greaves, and MPs Duncan Hames and

Julian Huppert – both well respected members of the 2010 intake. Key members of the FPC also sit on the manifesto working group to aide smooth coordination. The leadership will hope that better relations between the two groups will prevent a repeat of the 2010 Manifesto

process, in particular the inclusion of the policy to abolish tuition fees.

There is no full ‘Shadow’ Cabinet within the Party, but the Government Ministers meet regulary in the same way as the Shadow

Cabinet would have done prior to the election.

This group provides feedback and policy input into the manifesto based on their specialist policy knowledge and portfolio

responsibilties. They do not have formal sign-off process in the same way as the FPC does, but are nevertheless a key stage in

the three-point cyclical process.

LIBE

RA

L D

EM

OC

RA

T ‘S

HA

DOW CABINET’

Labour

A key plank of Ed Miliband’s 2010 leadership campaign concerned reaching out beyond Labour’s membership and involving civil society and the wider public in

Labour’s ‘new politics.’ Agenda 2015, Labour’s policy process ultimately leading to the 2015 manifesto, reflects Miliband’s commitment to opening the party’s policy process to the wider public, while also maintaining the formal channels of input from trade unions and members of other affiliates.

Agenda 2015

Labour’s 2012 Annual Conference approved a package of proposals and priorities which begin to define the party’s manifesto process in the run up to the next General Election. This new system most notably includes mechanisms for the general public to participate directly in policy making.

November 2012 saw the first manifestation of Agenda 2015 with the publication of a series of short ‘challenge papers’, which set out key

questions for Party members, affiliates and the wider public to respond to. The responses will guide Labour’s Policy Commissions in drafting a set of proposed policy documents, which will be put out for public consultation before being considered by the National Policy Forum (NPF) in spring 2013. The NPF will produce a policy suite for 2013’s Annual Conference, which will be voted on, setting

the direction for the ‘final year’ policy cycle, which essentially repeats the 2012/13 process. This process will result in the NPF submitting a final ‘policy programme’ to

the 2014 Annual Conference. Once approved by Conference, the final stage is the formal adoption of the manifesto programme by the entire party membership in a ‘Clause V’ vote, to take place once the General Election is called.

The Policy Review

Labour’s Policy Review was initially led by Blairite Liam Byrne but was handed to Blue Labour advocate Jon Cruddas in May 2012.

Cruddas streamlined the review into three over-arching themes: One Nation Economy, One Nation Society and One Nation Politics. Billed as a comprehensive discussion of all aspects of Labour’s policy, the review charges members of the Shadow Cabinet with looking at how the party can achieve the changes needed in the economy and society to achieve fairness in an era of constrained public spending.

Less systematic and more issues-focused than the Policy Commissions, to date the review has published a range of documents from the case for a British investment bank to energy market reform and reform of private rented housing. In reality, the review output has reflected the areas of interest that Shadow Cabinet teams have been discussing since 2010.

The policy documents from the policy review will be forwarded to the National Policy Forum and the Policy Commissions for

further consideration, reflecting their status as early discussion pieces.

Policy CommissionsLabour has established eight Policy Commissions, whose members are drawn from the National Policy Forum, Shadow Cabinet and the National Executive Committee. The Commissions are charged with developing policy ideas, producing challenge papers and publishing policy documents.

The Commissions are grouped into the overarching themes of economy, society, politics and international.

The Policy Commissions will produce draft policy proposals which could ultimately appear in Labour’s 2015 manifesto.

Stability and Prosperity Work and Business

Living Standards and Sustainability

Economy

Stronger, Safer Communities

Education and Children Health and Care

Society

Politics International

Kevin McKeever


This new system includes mechanisms for the general public to participate directly in policy making.

Better Politics Britain’s Global Role

The key players

Lord Glasman is an English academic, social thinker and Labour life peer. Prior to his elevation to the House of Lords he worked for ten years with London Citizens and developed an expertise in community organising.

He is best known as the originator of Blue Labour, a term he coined in 2009 - defined by Glasman as a small-c conservative form

of socialism which advocates a return to the roots of the pre-1945 Labour Party by encouraging the political involvement of voluntary groups from trade unions through churches to football clubs.

His political philosophy of local activism is being touted by some as Labour’s answer to David Cameron’s “big society”. He is

Maurice Glasman

Torsten Bell’s role will see him work with the leadership, shadow cabinet and all parts of the Party, to co-ordinate and implement a winning policy agenda to lead into the next general election. The challege he faces is to provide strategic leadership in developing the Party’s policy development process, establishment of a Rapid Rebuttal Unit, and

an effective horizon-scanning operation.

Until the 2010 General Election he worked for Alistair Darling as a member of the Council of Economic Advisers in HM Treasury, advising the Chancellor on the economy and public finances.

Torsten Bell

Jon Cruddas is viewed as one of the most ideological figures in the Labour party and his appointment as Policy Review Co-ordinator was seen by some to be a gamble. His challenge will be to remain true enough to the Labour grassroots to inspire

the campaign, while centrist enough to appear credible to the country as a whole.A Member of Parliament since 2001,

Dr Cruddas was hailed as the champion of the radical centre-left during his bid for the deputy leadership in 2007, in which he was eliminated in the penultimate round of the contest. After his campaign, he was offered a position in the Cabinet by Prime Minister

Gordon Brown, which he turned down. He then ruled himself out of the 2010 leadership election, preferring to influence policy.

Jon Cruddas

The key audiences

scornful of Cameron’s vision, claiming the Prime Minister is in thrall to a free-market philosophy that leaves communities and individuals at the mercy of forces that respect profit far more than tradition, custom and a sense of place.

His dedication to reviewing policy may be more ideological than specific. Only a week before his appointment he said in a speech: “What interests me is not policy as such, rather the search for political sentiment, voice and language; of general definition with

a national story.”

Cruddas is seen as a key driver behind development of the One Nation theme.

Ed Miliband will be keen to target a broad base of voters in order to deliver a Labour majority government or, crucially, a coalition. The party will craft its message around Miliband’s emerging One Nation theme. Much has been made of the 5 million voters ‘lost’ by Labour between 1997 and 2010. Supporters of the Blue Labour creed of community, social bonds and gradual change will argue these lost voters form part of Labour’s traditional core vote. Equally, reformers will argue these voters are the group attracted to the New

Labour project by Tony Blair and who had left Labour by 2012.

Miliband’s ‘squeezed middle’ philosophy aims to target all those who feel that, despite hard work, they are not realising the progress that had been experienced in previous decades. An amorphous group spanning modest earners to professional families, Miliband will hope Labour can attract them to the ballot box by promising to challenge vested interests in the society and the economy and

by convincing them that Labour is the party of aspiration.

A key challenge for Ed Miliband will be striking a balance between ‘rebalancing the economy in favour of lower earners’ whilst not scaring the middle classes into believing Labour will overtax and overspend.

Policy Commissions

Short challenge

papers

Party & Public

Ideas direct from party, public etc

from Your Britain

Joint Policy Committee

Agree key issues for

consideration

2012

2013

2014

20 12/13

Party & PublicFinal Year Documents

published for consulatation

ManifestoFormally adoptedin Clause V vote

April 2015

Party Commissions

Draft ‘Final Year Documents’

National Policy Forum

Agree key issues for

consideration

Joint Policy Committee

Agrees policy

documents

National Policy Forum

Discussion of policy papers

based on submissions

Policy Commissions

From NPF feedback review

policy documents

Party & Public

Views sought on Challenge

Papers

Party & Public

View sought on draft policy documents

Policy CommissionsProduce daily draft policy documents

2012 Annual ConferenceApproves NPF

annual report and sets priorities for

next year

2013 Annual ConferenceApproves NPF

report and policy documents

2014 Annual Conference

Agrees Policy

Programme

2015

PolicyReview

Labour’sAgenda 2015

Party & Public

Policy Commissions

Conferences

Warningsfromhistory

As the party leaders prepare for the run-up to the election, each will be conscious of his party’s electoral history. They may be looking for

clues, or comfort, in the history of postwar elections.

David Cameron will be hoping to use his record in office to convince the electorate to grant him the chance to govern with a

full majority. Nick Clegg may be wishing for the electorate to reject the Tory leader, knowing a swing away from the Conservatives has traditionally been his party’s best chance of picking up seats. And Ed Miliband will be looking to capitalise on his current poll lead to sweep to power. However, each of them should pause and think again.

ConservativesThe difficult second election

British electoral history does not provide much comfort for David Cameron’s mission in 2015. In the 17

elections since 1945, only five times has a Prime Minister gone to the polls and increased the Government’s majority.

The first Conservative success of this sort saw Anthony Eden turn a slim majority into a workable one, before his ignominious exit and replacement by Harold Macmillan, who waited another two years before adding another 40 seats.

However, these men took the reins of power with their party already in government. In 2015, Mr Cameron will be hoping to emulate the feats of Harold Wilson. Wilson twice entered Number 10 without a decisive majority but twice, in 1966 and October 1974, successfully sought a stronger mandate from the country.

A less promising sign is that in these cases Wilson returned to the polls after periods of eighteen and six months respectively. Of all the post-war Prime Ministers who have increased their majority, only Margaret Thatcher in 1983 did so having come to power in the previous election and served a term of at least four years.

That election result is perhaps instructive. The fractured Left, extreme Labour manifesto and unpopularity of Labour leader Michael Foot no doubt helped the Tories rally support to their cause, but the election was also fought under a revised set of constituency boundaries, a reform which the Government pushed through despite protests from other parties. Given Mr Cameron has failed to pull off his own redrawing of the Parliamentary map, his task will be all the harder.

Majority-enhancers in post-war elections

Election Winners Majority

1945 Labour 146

1950 Labour 5

1951 Conservative 17



1964 Labour 4

1966 Labour 98


1974 (Feb) Labour -33

1974 (Oct) Labour 3





1997 Labour 179

2001 Labour 167

2005 Labour 66

2010 Con-Lib 78

Liberal DemocratsWill the ‘swing left’ still deliver?

The Liberal Party, in its various incarnations since the War, has largely done best in years when a

Labour government is returned. Throughout the Conservative 50s and 60s the Liberal Party remained stuck on six seats, with a share of the vote as low as 2.6%. The two Labour governments of 1964-70 and 1974-79 saw them get towards touching distance of Labour and the Conservatives, but during Edward

Heath’s administration in between, six lonely Liberals were again to be found in the Commons.

This changed fairly dramatically with the fracturing of the Labour Party and the coming of the SDP/Liberal alliance. In 1983 the third party’s share of the vote reached an all-time high of 25.4%, only 2.2 percentage points behind Labour, although the electoral system delivered a miserable

3.5% of seats.

Upon Tony Blair’s victory in 1997, a consolidated Liberal Democrat party once again benefitted from the anti-Tory mood and returned a postwar record 46 MPs, a figure which rose twice in 2001 and 2005. This high point was fleeting. Despite the brief ‘Cleggmania’ episode in the 2010 election, the Lib Dems entered government with fewer seats than in the previous Parliament, as the swing to the Tories knocked some of their sitting MPs out.

So if Nick Clegg is seeking inspiration from past performance, he might hope that a 2015 swing against the Conservatives will once again see voters flee to the comforting arms of the Lib Dems, perhaps

29 Warnings from history

Average number of Liberal MPs during Conservative Government: 17

Average number of Liberal MPs during Labour Government: 24

LabourHow far ahead should they be halfway through the race?

Ed Miliband’s Labour have enjoyed poll leads of at least five percent and often double figures. But this far out

from an election, such a lead is not to be banked upon. For an opposition, the mid-term period is usually the time to enjoy a surge of popularity as the mistakes of the incumbents are held up to scrutiny and the ideas of the second-placed party can seem fresh but still largely consequence-free. It is only as the election deadline looms that the opposition

start to come under the microscope and the Government is able to play on the electorate’s fear of the unknown. Every credible opposition has seen its poll rating two years ahead of an election whittled away by election day.These are lessons the Labour party had to learn the hard way during the long years in opposition. In 1987 Neil Kinnock’s loss of five percentage points in two years must have been distressing, but it was nothing compared to the catastrophic loss

of a full 18 points (from 52% to 34%) that occurred between the end days of Mrs Thatcher’s time in office in 1990 and the election in 1992.

Even Tony Blair’s landslide victory in the next election saw a falling-off of the vote from 48% to 43%. The next two elections saw a very weak opposition actually manage to claw back some votes from Labour in comparison to the midway mark in each Parliament, but crucially William Hague, Iain Duncan Smith and Michael Howard barely ever threatened to establish a lead in the polls. The eventual narrowing of the gap by the electorate felt more like imposition of restraint on a dominant government than a sign that they were ever really under threat.

David Cameron in 2008-2010 suffered the same fate as several previous Opposition leaders. Having what looked like a commanding lead with 41% of the polls in 2008 he eventually had to settle for 36% in 2010. His opposite number now will be hoping that the inevitable erosion of the Labour lead ends up moderate rather than devastating.

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

% in

pol

l/ac

tual

ele

ctio

n re

sult

Year

1985 1987 1990 1992 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2008 2010

Conservatives

Labour

- 16 point swing

- 29 point swing-6 point swing

+8 point swing+10 point swing

- 7 point swing

Mid-term leads

helped by perceptions of a Labour leadership too far away from the centre ground.

Never before, however, has the third party been so closely aligned to the Conservatives. There is no reason this time around to assume a swing away from the Tories would deliver votes to the Lib Dems, who are now intimately associated with the entirety of the Government’s record. Unlike the 1997 high point of semi-

authorised anti-Tory cooperation, Labour will be out to target Lib Dem seats, as will the Conservatives from the other flank. All of which might bring little comfort to Nick Clegg, left wondering what the least worst electoral trend might now be.

Five lessonsFor anyone looking to achieve results in 2013-15

Huge amounts hinge on the election result in 2015. Business success or failure can be brought closer by government policy. Organisations’objectives can be delivered or destroyed. Those looking to help shape their destiny should bear five things in mind.

1. Any election result is possible

In the run-up to four of the last five elections, the outcome has been more or less beyond doubt. For anyone interested in working with the coming government and looking to influence or understand their agenda, the place to focus resources has been obvious. Prudent stakeholders were able to hedge in an easy way by checking in with the opposition, but this could almost seem a courtesy effort at times.

However, as the earlier chapter in this document sets out, just about any outcome still seems possible in 2015. This not only means that any of four or five agendas could be crucial, it also strengthens the competition for ideas.

Each party will want to align itself with the right stakeholders and demonstrate it has a plan for them, while also seeking to grab policy ideas before their rivals. Those organisations looking to set the pace can, through hard work, take advantage.

Oliver Pauley

2. Short term ideas are needed as well

The failure of the House of Lords reform legislation left a hole in the legislative timetable which members of the Government have been remarkably frank about. It has been partially filled with legislation on planning but the seeming scramble to get together something in time was indicative of a bigger issue. Unlike previous governments, where departments could end up scrapping for the scarce space on the order paper, the paucity of ready Bills seems glaring. While the mid-term review was full of promises of future action, it still did not add up to a full programme of action in the way the 2010 Coalition agreement did.

In opposition, the Coalition parties could appear very relaxed about such a

31 Five lessons

prospect. Indeed, current Cabinet Member Chris Grayling complained in 2009 that the Labour approach to law and order policy relied on ‘too much legislation and not enough action’. This attitude, coupled with the repeated warnings of the need for a reduction in regulation, could suggest that the Coalition would be relaxed about a period in which the Queen is not troubled for her signature too much.

But the problem with a government that does nothing in Parliament is that it can swiftly seem to do nothing at all. Ministers find their ability to grab headlines with new announcements is limited by no longer being able to pull out new powers, offences or penalties. And MPs strive to fill the gap with projects (or mischief) of their own – if not driven in one direction they are liable to run off in several different ones.

For these reasons, the Government is still in the market for short term ideas, both regulatory and deregulatory. These of course must still play to the Government’s overall narrative, and be tolerable within the Coalition.

3. Local issues matter

The tightness of the election result last time, and the high likelihood of a similar result this time, mean that every seat will be fought over. Part of this will be about intelligent targeting of campaigning resources. But equally it will be about the candidates’ positioning on big issues that really matter to local people.

Airport capacity is probably the most high profile example, which is probably why the Government has chosen to kick the issue into the long grass. But there are other issues which matter acutely in certain

areas, such as the High Speed 2 rail line for constituencies along that route or defence procurement for shipyards.

Local issues such as school provision, hospital closures or civic

redevelopment always matter in elections. But as the parties scrap ever harder for

every single seat, constituency-specific arguments will come to the fore in the individual battles all over the country.

They will be even more hotly contested in this country’s ‘Ohios’ - crucial swing seats which could make the difference between victory and defeat. Those caught in the crossfire of those local battles need to understand how they relate to the national war.

4. Nobody wants to look profligate

The debate over the Government’s deficit reduction programme has focussed not on the principle that a tightening of belts is essential for the nation’s future, but on the detail of how fast such a reduction should occur (and where the cuts should fall). Although the differences in their approach are much discussed and analysed, what Ed Balls has offered so far is a plan to close the structural deficit slightly more slowly than George Osborne.

All parties will want to lay claim to policies which support economic growth and jobs. But the terms of debate since the election have meant that ‘borrow and spend’ is no longer an option. Even if economic growth remains underwhelming all the way to 2015, the ‘kitchen table’ common sense of the Government needing to live within its means has become too strong for anyone serious to propose an alternative view.

As such, the parties will run scared of any policy idea which is not costed and accounted for, or which seems profligate and expensive. Anyone looking to influence policy ideas for the three main parties will need to live within these rules – pitches for extravagant extensions

The paucity of ready Bills seems glaring.

in government spending will likely get nowhere. Innovative thinking about how economic growth can be supported outside fiscal measures will though be gratefully grabbed by the under-pressure Treasury teams.

5. Now is the time to engage

The work to win the next election nowadays starts immediately after the new Parliament takes shape. But the first year in government is about setting out a vision, while the second is about demonstrating the capacity for delivery.

This means the generation of ideas probably reaches its peak in year three of a government, before the manifestos start to take shape and the parties get into campaigning mode in the year after.

Although the election still feels a long way off, the hard work needs to start now.

90 staff

70 country experience

50 current clients

40 years on Fleet Street

35 years in Downing Street

20 of the world’s top listed companies

One Portland

London1 Red Lion Court

LondonEC4A 3EB

t: +44 (0) 20 7842 0123f: +44 (0) 20 7842 0145

New YorkThe Chrysler Building

405 Lexington Ave26th Floor

New York, NY 10174t: +1 212 541 2481

Nairobi4th Floor Laiboni Centre

Lenana RoadNairobi, Kenya

t: +254 (0) 20 493 8200

www.portland-communications.com

[email protected]

@PortlandComms

road to the manifestos

Documents

election james oshaughnessy

election sam

new ideas

potential election outcomes

digital age

electoral history

alastair campbell

notforprofit clients