remaining oil & natural gas resources of new mexico ron broadhead new mexico bureau of geology...
TRANSCRIPT
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Remaining Oil & Natural Gas Resources of New Mexico
Ron Broadhead
New Mexico Bureau of Geology & Mineral Resources
A division of New Mexico Tech
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Key Questions
• How much extractable oil and gas is left in New Mexico?
• How long will production last?
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Resource CategoriesResource category
Definition Confidence level
Proved reserves Already discovered mostly drilled
High
Undiscovered resources – productive trends
Undiscovered but along known trends
-undrilled
Medium
Undiscovered resources-
new trends in productive basins,
new basins
Undiscovered trends in well known
productive basins
New basins
(poorly known)
Undrilled
Low
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Natural Gas
• Production history
• Reserves
• Resources
• How long?
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Natural Gas Resources
Resource type
Gas (TCF) Source
Proved reserves 17.3 EIA/DOE
Undiscovered resources
51.2 USGS
Undiscovered resources
72.1 PGC
Total resource base
68.5-89.4
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How long will this last at present rates of production
(1.6 TCF/year)?
Proved reserves 10.8 years
Undiscovered resources 32-45 years (providing estimated gas is explored for, discovered & brought online)
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Production History, U.S. Gas
From Potential Gas Committee (2000)
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Reserve Life Index
_Proved reserves_Annual production
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Crude Oil
• Production history
• Reserves
• Resources
• How long?
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Oil Resources
Resource type
Oil (MMBO) Source
Proved reserves 705 EIA/DOE
Undiscovered resources
776 USGS
Total resource base
1481
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How long will this last at present rates of production
(67 MMBO/year)?
Proved reserves 10.5 years
Undiscovered resources 11.5 years (providing estimated oil is explored for, discovered & brought online)
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Production History, U.S. Oil
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First Conclusions
• The Reserve Life Indices for oil & gas have remained surprisingly stable over the last 20 to 30 years
• Oil and gas resources have been moved from the undiscovered category to the discovered category at a rate approximately equal to production
• Undiscovered resources have been underestimated
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So how have oil & gas been added to the resource base to keep the Reserve Life Indices from falling through the floor?
Some notable examples…
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Recovery enhancement
Waterflooding/pressure maintenance-Vacuum Grayburg San Andres reservoir
From current work on DOE/PUMPproject –Digital analysis & portfolioof oil reservoirs in Permian Basin
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Redevelopment of old fieldse.g. Dagger Draw
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Effect of Dagger Draw on NM Production
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Additional resources through new playsBrushy Canyon discoveries
From current work on DOE/PUMPproject – Digital analysis & portfolioof oil reservoirs in Permian Basin
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Additional resources through new unconventional gas
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Other Emerging Possibilities
• Horizontal drilling in old fields (San Andres, Yeso Fms., SE NM)
• Unconventional gas sources (incl. shale gas, low K carbonates)
• New basin production (Raton coalbed methane, other areas)
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Second ConclusionsWhat will it take to keep the decline in check?
• Renewal of old fields through redevelopment, EOR, etc.
• Discovery of new plays
• New sources of unconventional gas
• All of the above have their role
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And above all…
Drill
Drill
Drill