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Reducing Emissions from Deforestation

and Forest Degradation (REDD/ REDD+)-

Potential for Pakistan

IUCN, INTERNATIONAL UNION FOR CONSERVATION OF NATURE

Saadullah Ayaz

Climate Change Coordinator

IUCN- Pakistan

Email: [email protected]

Forests and Climate Change


Forests and Climate Change

Forests represent the most significant terrestrial carbon stock

They contain:

– 77% of all carbon stored in vegetation– 39% of all carbon stored in soils(Eliasch Review )


Forests sequester and store more carbon (per hectare) than any other type of land cover

Accounted for 17.4% of global GHG emission in 2004,

Equivalent to 49 GtCO2 eqv./ yr.

(IPCC- FAR, 2007)

Forests in UNFCCC Negotiations


REDD-plus negotiations leading up to Copenhagen are widely regarded as one of more positive developments

Concept of REDD/ REDD+


REDD

“Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation”

Attempts to recognize role of forests in climate change mitigation

– Forests are needed to achieve +2°C objective– 15- 20% of the problem or 15- 20% of the solution?

Discussed in UNFCCC negotiations as part of ‘post 2012’ climate


Discussed in UNFCCC negotiations as part of ‘post 2012’ climate regime

– Excluded from Clean Development Mechanism (KP- 2012)– Allowed for Annex I countries and under Joint Implementation– Not allowed EU Emissions Trading Scheme

Scope: Shift in thinking from

avoided deforestation to REDD+ (COP 15)

1. Reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation

Protecting existing forests from immediate and/or medium term threats

2. Conservation:

Protecting existing forests, especially primary forests, including thosethat face no immediate threat from deforestation and degradation butcould in future


could in future

3. Sustainable management of forests:

Safeguarding, and as appropriate, expanding existing carbon stocks inboth community and industrial working forests against long-termdecline

4. Enhancement of forest carbon stocks:

Not only afforestation and reforestation but broader restoration ofForests

REDD/ REDD+

Readiness Initiatives

REDD+ readiness relates to the efforts a country is undertaking, with the support of multilateral or bilateral initiatives,


with the support of multilateral or bilateral initiatives, to build its capacity to be ready for a REDD+ mechanism

UN-REDD Programme

Collaborative initiative (UN, FAO, UNDP) UNEP), launched in September 2008. Aims to assist developing countries prepare and implement national REDD+ strategies

The Programme currently supports REDD+ readiness activities in nine pilot countries (Bolivia, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Indonesia, Panama, Papua New Guinea, Paraguay, United Republic of Tanzania, Viet Nam and Zambia)


Zambia)

13 others to be observers to its Policy Board, and has given them access to many other benefits of the Programme (networking, participation in regional workshops and knowledge sharing, facilitated by the Programme’s interactive online workspace). They are; Argentina, Ecuador, Cambodia, Costa Rica, Kenya, Mexico, Nepal, Nigeria, Philippines, Republic of Congo, Solomon Islands, Sri Lanka, Sudan

UN-REDD Programme’s Policy Board has approved a total of US$42.6 million

Activities under

UN-REDD Programme

help develop analyses and guidelines on issues including; measurement,

reporting and verification (MRV) of carbon emissions and flows, ensuring that forests continue to provide multiple benefits for livelihoods and the environment, and supporting the engagement of Indigenous Peoples and Civil Society at all stages of the design and implementation of REDD+ strategies


strategies

also seeks to build consensus and knowledge about REDD+, to ensure a REDD+ mechanism is included in a post-2012 climate change agreement

Forest Carbon Partnership Facility

Forest Carbon Partnership Facility (FCPF) (World Bank) assists developing

countries in their efforts to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation--called REDD+--by providing value to standing forests

builds the capacity of developing countries in tropical and subtropical regions to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation and to tap into


to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation and to tap into

any future system of positive incentives for REDD+

REDD/ REDD+ and Pakistan


Forest Resources of Pakistan

1. Forest Cover (hectares): 1,902,000

2. Forest Cover (as % of total land area): 2.5

3. Other wooded land (hectares): 1,389,000


4. Total land area (hectares): 79,610,000

5. Deforestation (hectares)= 2700/ yr

(does not includes forest degradation)

Data for 1990-2005 (FAO)

Forest Trends in Pakistan


1990-2005 (FAO)

Potential for REDD in Pakistan (avoided deforestation)

Forest+

wooded land

Annual forest

cover

change

(Forest+

wooded

land)

Above-

ground

biomass

(Forest+

wooded

land)

Forest CO2/

ha

Aggregate

CO2

emissions

from

deforestation

(Forest+

wooded land)

Assuming $3/ tCO2Assuming $10/ tCO294.74315.8

Assuming $3/ tCO2Assuming $10/ tCO294.74315.8

Potential REDD earnings


Assuming 100% reduction in deforestation, fully compensated, using FAO carbon estimates for above ground biomass.

data used for year 2005 and derived from the ‘Forest Resources Assessment’ and the State of the ‘World's Forests’ published by the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization

3.291 m ha. 0.208 m ha. 381 Mt 734 t -31.58

Mt CO2

Assuming

$3/ tCO2

$94.74 m

Assuming

$10/ tCO2

$315.8 m

REDD+ for Pakistan? A Complex Cycle

Total Registered project with CDM- EB (UNFCCC)= 2399 (as of June 2010)

CDM- AR Registered Projects= 8

REDD/ REDD+ = None

Is Pakistan prepared to take up the challenge??


UN Criteria to support REDD initiatives:

• An expressed willingness to work with the UN-REDD Programme • Existing collaboration between the country, the UN partners and other relevant actors in

related areas that will help ensure rapid progress • Emission avoidance potential • Degree of REDD readiness potential • Regional, biome and socio-economic representation • Coordination with international REDD initiatives • Potential to provide leadership in sub-regional sharing of experience • Ability to contribute experiences to UNFCCC negotiations and development of REDD

mechanisms

Risks associated with Carbon business

1. Natural/ climatic risks: (disease, growth lower than prediction drought, floods, damaging winds, land slides etc.)

2. Anthropogenic factors: encroachment, poaching, fire

3. Political risks: policy changes, unstable governments

4. Economic risks: exchange rates, interest rates, lower than expected CER


4. Economic risks: exchange rates, interest rates, lower than expected CER prices, changes in opportunity cost of land

5. Risks associated with CER purchaser (willing to pay upfront?)

6. Future of Kyoto??

7. Crediting Period (5 years for forestry)

8. Investment in forestry (is it viable business??)

9. Management/ ownership issues (influence of black market/ feudalism)

10. Baseline data/ methodology development/ monitoring (huge investments)- will it still be viable?

11. Leakages in carbon budget (if not forests, where shall we cater for


11. Leakages in carbon budget (if not forests, where shall we cater for needs? Any alternates?)

12. Long- term involvement of stakes~ easy at it sounds?

Is it Practical for Pakistan?

Though the REDD policy has been finalized~ modalities and procedures yet to be Clearfield

Not eligible for Kyoto first Commitment Period (2012)

REDD mechanism suitable for Pakistan….

- high rate of deforestation- an opportunity!


- high rate of deforestation- an opportunity!but can it be reduced…? If yes, how and how much??

- How much time we nee to be prepared??

- Is it cost effective??

- Is it socio- politically applicable? If yes, how??

- Administrative and technical capacities?

REDD/ REDD+ and IUCN


REDD+ and IUCN

REDD+ is important for IUCN

– Our mission: To influence, encourage and assist societies throughout the world to conserve the integrity and diversity of nature and to ensure that any use of natural resources is equitable and ecologically sustainable

– Members’ decisions


IUCN’s work on REDD+

– Supporting the readiness phase – good forest governance– Poverty – REDD+– Forest Landscape Restoration – REDD+– Advocacy and Technical Advice– Ecosystem based Adaptation (EbA)

(http://www.iucn.org/what/tpas/climate)

IUCN for REDD+ (Post COP 15)IUCN’ Position Paper for 10th Session of AWG- LCA, May- June 2010, Bonn

IUCN urged Parties to reach an agreement on a REDD-plus mechanism that recognizes that avoiding greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation and forest degradation is a necessary component of achieving deep cuts in all sources of anthropogenic emissions in order to mitigate climate change

IUCN urged Parties to ensure that the full scope of REDD-plus is respected and supported in the establishment of the mechanism, including


IUCN urged Parties to ensure that the full scope of REDD-plus is respected and supported in the establishment of the mechanism, including through the provision of financial resources and investment

Concluding….

REDD/ REDD-plus will only achieve results if it is able to be adapted to the individual circumstances of countries

AND


if countries have the political will to adapt policies and methods to meet the needs of REDD/ REDD-plus

implementation

The Forests Dialogue's initiative- IUCN CMS (2010)

IUCN- TV VIDEO:

“Nature-our trusted ally in climate change fight”Duration 5 (mins), 18 (Secs.)


http://www.iucn.org/knowledge/multimedia/video/

Thanks


Thanks

:

For more information, please contact:

Saadullah Ayaz

Climate Change CoordinatorIUCN Pakistan

Tel: +92 (51) 2271028- 30Email: [email protected]

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