climate change- food security and pakistan- saadullah ayaz

8/8/2019 Climate Change- Food Security and Pakistan- Saadullah Ayaz

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Food Security and Present Threat

Posed by Climate Change

IUCN, International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources

Saadullah Ayaz

IUCN- Pakistan, April 2010



Development Concerns of Pakistan

1. Nearly one-quarter of the population in Pakistan is classified as poor (World Resource Institute 2007)

- Human Development Index is 0.539 - 74 percent population living under $2 a day - GDP~ 125th in World


employs 46% population~ dependent on water

3. Low forest cover (4.5%)~ deforestation= 0.2- 0.4 % per annum

4. Pakistan among the 17 countries facing watershortages and is among the 36 countries havingserious threat of food crisis (WB 2009)



Climate Change Impacts on Pakistan

1. 12th country most vulnerable to climate change (Maplecroft 2007)

2. Losing at least 5% of GDP each year (may be upto 20%)

3. Emission share~ 0.43% of world’s total (135th ranking)

4. Temperature rise= 0.6 to 1.0°C (since early 1900s) (IPCC 2007)

5. Decrease in precipitation=10 to 15% (last 40 years) (IPCC 2007)


6. Western Himalayan glaciers will retreat for the next 50 years, indecrease of flows by up to 30 to 40% (GCISC 2008)



Food Security and Pakistan

1. Pakistan, ranked 11th on the index, is at “extreme risk” (Food Security RiskIndex, UN 2009)

2. About one-third of the households in Pakistan are living below the ‘foodpoverty line’ (not meeting their nutritional requirements) (Mazhar Arif 2007)

3. Out of 120 district settings in Pakistan, 74 (62%) are food deficit in terms of


ne ava a y

4. Droughts, floods, cyclones and pests (all related to CC) can quickly wipe outlarge quantities of food as it grows or is stored- further adding to foodinsecurity

5. Agriculture production in Pak rises by less than 1% annually (FAO 2006)



Climate Change Impacts in

relation to Agriculture and Food Security

1. Climate Change will increase variability in normal monsoon patterns(GCISC 2008)

2. More rapid recession of Himalayan- Karakoram Glaciers than predicated,

threatening Indus River System Flows (GCISC 2008).

3. Likelihood of glaciers disappearing by the year 2035 is very high


(international Commission of Snow and Water, 1999)

4. Reduction in capacity of natural reservoirs due to rise in snowline (threats to

irrigated agriculture)

5. Severe water-stressed conditions in arid and semi-arid regions resulting infood Insecurity due to reduced agriculture productivity (GCISC 2008)

6. Not much data/ research information available for Pakistan



Impact of rise in temperature on wheat Growing

Season Length in Northern and Southern PakistanTemperature(˚Cincrease

overbaseline)

Growing Season Length (Days)

Northern Pakistan Southern Pakistan

MountainousRegion(Humid)

Sub-MountainousRegion

(Sub-humid)

Plains(Semi-arid)

Plains(Arid)

Baseline 246 161 146 137


1 232 155 140 132

2 221 149 135 127

3 211 144 130 123

4 202 138 125 1185 194 133 121 113

Finding: Decreasing Trend in number of days in Growing season (Source: GCISC)



Effects Of Climate Events On Wheat Production

In Rain-fed Areas of PakistanCroppingYear

Yield(kg/ ha) % change Climate Events

Economic Cost(Rs. Mill)

1999-2000 1319 -25 Drought Year 2685.9

2000-01 534 -70 Drought +

Terminal heat stress 3026.1

2001-02 717 -59 Drought +

Terminal heat stress 3266.5


2002-03 1310 -25 Drought Year 2281.1

2003-04 1321 -25 Terminal heat stress 2814.0

2004-05 1730 -1 169.0

2005-06 1354 -23 Terminal heat stress 3320.0

2006-07 1755 = Bumper Year 0.0

Source: Aslam and Asim, 2008



Climate Change Impact on Wheat Production in

Pakistan by 2085 under A2 and B2 Scenarios

Region% Share inNationalProduction

Baseline Yield(kg per ha)

% Change in yield in 2080

ScenarioA2

ScenarioB2

(NorthernMountainous) 2 2658 +50 +40

(Northern Sub-mountainous - -


(Southern Semiarid Plain) 42 4306 -8 -8

(Southern Arid

Plain) 47 4490 -5 -6

Total (Pakistan) 100 4326 -5.7 -6.4

Source: GCISC 2008



Expected Economic Losses in Wheat by 2080

due to CC and related factors

RegionsProductiondistribution

% share innational

production

Changein yield

(%)

QuantityLoss

(000 t)

EconomicLoss

(Rs. Mill.)

NorthernMountains

465.9 2 +4 186.4 4.43

NorthernSub- 2096.5 9 -11 -230.6 -5.48


SouthernSemi AridPlains

9783.8 42 -8 -782.7 -18.59

Southern

Arid Plains10948.5 47 -6 -656.9 -15.60

Total 23294.7 -1483.9 -35.24

Source: NARC (2008)



Salient findings

1. Expected temperature increase in Pakistan aswhole higher than the expected global averageincrease.

2. Projected temperature increase in the north issomewhat higher than in the south Pakistan.

3. Projected temperature increase in winter is morethan that in summer.


4. As yet it is not possible to get a clear picture forprecipitation change, due to large modeluncertainties.

5. The yields of both wheat and rice will decreaseeverywhere except in the Northern Mountainousareas where wheat yield will increase.



1. Initiate adaptation measures/ access to international funds

2. Increase water use efficiency, enhance water reservoir capacity

3. Improved governance structure

4. Stren thenin of Ministr of Environment ministr of Food

Recommendations


Agriculture and Livestock

5. Strengthen research base and agricultural extension services

6. Invest in dry- land, arid agriculture

7. Control exponential population growth



8. Comprehensive ‘Food Security Strategy’- Pro- Poor concerns integrated

9. Improve access to food, through the development of social protectionschemes such as minimum wage, unemployment

benefits, “food-for-work” programmes, basic health care and agriculturalinsurance

10. Investments in sustainable agriculture and small scale farmers will beextremely important,

Recommendations (contd…)


11. Drought resistant varieties, alternate farming practices, reduce cultivationof water intensive crops



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climate change- food security and pakistan- saadullah ayaz

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