presentation food security and threat posed by climate change- saadullah ayaz

Food Security and Present Threat

Posed by Climate Change

IUCN, International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources

Saadullah Ayaz

IUCN- Pakistan, April 2010

Development Concerns of Pakistan

1. Nearly one-quarter of the population in Pakistan isclassified as poor (World Resource Institute 2007)

- Human Development Index is 0.539- 74 percent population living under $2 a day- GDP~ 125th in World

2. Agriculture contributes to 24 percent of the GDP and


2. Agriculture contributes to 24 percent of the GDP andemploys 46% population~ dependent on water

3. Low forest cover (4.5%)~ deforestation= 0.2- 0.4 %per annum

4. Pakistan among the 17 countries facing watershortages and is among the 36 countries havingserious threat of food crisis (WB 2009)

Climate Change Impacts on Pakistan

1. 12th country most vulnerable to climate change (Maplecroft 2007)

2. Losing at least 5% of GDP each year (may be upto 20%)

3. Emission share~ 0.43% of world’s total (135th ranking)

4. Temperature rise= 0.6 to 1.0°C (since early 1900s) (IPCC 2007)

5. Decrease in precipitation=10 to 15% (last 40 years) (IPCC 2007)


6. Western Himalayan glaciers will retreat for the next 50 years, indecrease of flows by up to 30 to 40% (GCISC 2008)

Food Security and Pakistan

1. Pakistan, ranked 11th on the index, is at “extreme risk” (Food Security Risk Index, UN 2009)

2. About one-third of the households in Pakistan are living below the ‘food poverty line’ (not meeting their nutritional requirements) (Mazhar Arif 2007)

3. Out of 120 district settings in Pakistan, 74 (62%) are food deficit in terms of net availability (SDPI 2003)


net availability (SDPI 2003)

4. Droughts, floods, cyclones and pests (all related to CC) can quickly wipe out large quantities of food as it grows or is stored- further adding to food insecurity

5. Agriculture production in Pak rises by less than 1% annually (FAO 2006)

Climate Change Impacts in relation to Agriculture and Food Security

1. Climate Change will increase variability in normal monsoon patterns(GCISC 2008)

2. More rapid recession of Himalayan- Karakoram Glaciers than predicated,

threatening Indus River System Flows (GCISC 2008).

3. Likelihood of glaciers disappearing by the year 2035 is very high

(international Commission of Snow and Water, 1999)


(international Commission of Snow and Water, 1999)

4. Reduction in capacity of natural reservoirs due to rise in snowline (threats to

irrigated agriculture)

5. Severe water-stressed conditions in arid and semi-arid regions resulting infood Insecurity due to reduced agriculture productivity (GCISC 2008)

6. Not much data/ research information available for Pakistan

Impact of rise in temperature on wheat Growing Season Length in Northern and Southern Pakistan

Temperature(˚Cincrease over baseline)

Growing Season Length (Days)

Northern Pakistan Southern Pakistan

MountainousRegion(Humid)

Sub-MountainousRegion

(Sub-humid)

Plains(Semi-arid)

Plains(Arid)

Baseline 246 161 146 137

1 232 155 140 132


1 232 155 140 132

2 221 149 135 127

3 211 144 130 123

4 202 138 125 118

5 194 133 121 113

Finding: Decreasing Trend in number of days in Growing season (Source: GCISC)

Change in Wheat Yield in Different Agro-climatic Zones of Pakistan with variation in Temperature

Temperature Effect

2500

3500

4500

5500

6500W

heat

Yie

ld (

kg

/ha)


1500

2500

base 1 2 3 4 5

Temperature increase (oC)

Wh

eat

Yie

ld (

kg

/ha)

Source: GCISC

Effects Of Climate Events On Wheat Production In Rain-fed Areas of Pakistan

Cropping Year

Yield (kg/ ha) % change Climate Events

Economic Cost (Rs. Mill)

1999-2000 1319 -25 Drought Year 2685.9

2000-01 534 -70 Drought +

Terminal heat stress3026.1

2001-02 717 -59 Drought +

Terminal heat stress3266.5


Terminal heat stress

2002-03 1310 -25 Drought Year 2281.1

2003-04 1321 -25 Terminal heat stress 2814.0

2004-05 1730 -1 169.0

2005-06 1354 -23 Terminal heat stress 3320.0

2006-07 1755 = Bumper Year 0.0

Source: Aslam and Asim, 2008

Climate Change Impact on Wheat Production in Pakistan by 2085 under A2 and B2 Scenarios

Region% Share in National Production

Baseline Yield (kg per ha)

% Change in yield in 2080

ScenarioA2

ScenarioB2

(Northern Mountainous) 2 2658 +50 +40

(Northern Sub-mountainous) 9 3933 -11 -11


mountainous) 9 3933 -11 -11

(Southern Semi arid Plain) 42 4306 -8 -8

(Southern Arid Plain) 47 4490 -5 -6

Total (Pakistan) 100 4326 -5.7 -6.4

Source: GCISC 2008

Expected Economic Losses in Wheat by 2080 due to CC and related factors

RegionsProduction distribution

% share in national

production

Change in yield

(%)

Quantity Loss

(000 t)

Economic Loss

(Rs. Mill.)

Northern Mountains

465.9 2 +4 186.4 4.43

Northern Sub-mountainous

2096.5 9 -11 -230.6 -5.48


mountainous

Southern Semi Arid Plains

9783.8 42 -8 -782.7 -18.59

Southern Arid Plains

10948.5 47 -6 -656.9 -15.60

Total 23294.7 -1483.9 -35.24

Source: NARC (2008)

Salient findings

1. Expected temperature increase in Pakistan as whole higher than the expected global average increase.

2. Projected temperature increase in the north is somewhat higher than in the south Pakistan.

3. Projected temperature increase in winter is more than that in summer.


than that in summer.

4. As yet it is not possible to get a clear picture for precipitation change, due to large model uncertainties.

5. The yields of both wheat and rice will decrease everywhere except in the Northern Mountainous areas where wheat yield will increase.

1. Initiate adaptation measures/ access to international funds

2. Increase water use efficiency, enhance water reservoir capacity

3. Improved governance structure

4. Strengthening of Ministry of Environment, ministry of Food

Recommendations


4. Strengthening of Ministry of Environment, ministry of Food Agriculture and Livestock

5. Strengthen research base and agricultural extension services

6. Invest in dry- land, arid agriculture

7. Control exponential population growth

8. Comprehensive ‘Food Security Strategy’- Pro- Poor concerns integrated

9. Improve access to food, through the development of social protectionschemes such as minimum wage, unemployment

benefits, “food-for-work” programmes, basic health care and agriculturalinsurance

10. Investments in sustainable agriculture and small scale farmers will beextremely important,

11. Drought resistant varieties, alternate farming practices, reduce cultivation

Recommendations (contd…)


11. Drought resistant varieties, alternate farming practices, reduce cultivationof water intensive crops

Thanks


presentation food security and threat posed by climate change- saadullah ayaz

Education