Performance Evaluation of Emissions Models

Models3 WorkshopMark Janssen

Midwest RPO/LADCO

What emissions models?

SMOKE - MCNC Sparse matrix fast Free - uses Fortran and IOAPI libs

EMS-2002 Data openness Model code decipherable to outsiders

How do you evaluate emissions models?

Ability to create realistic representation of reality: For a specific Chemical Transport Model(CTM)

CMAQ, CAMX, REMSAD, UAM-IV

Spatial scale of the CTM(domain, cell size) Lumped chemical species mechanisms(CB-IV) Temporal scale of the model(Hour Specific)

What makes it hard?

Many types of data Inventories, landuse, met, speciation,

temporal allocation tables, 80+ typesInventory quality problems

Stack parameters, temporal allocation……. Parts are not complex,but many parts

Onroad, Biogenic, Offroad, Point, Area Fires, Dust, Ammonia, Electric Generation

How do you measure Performance?

Easy to understand and use parts Documentation Readable, stable code Easy execution, installation Easy to build new grids, episodes Support available(Community or

Contractors) Hardware Software Requirements

How do you measure Performance(cont.)?

Models assist in identification of inventory problems that effect models Data formatting problems. missing SCC codes Supersonic exit velocities

Models assist in identification of inventory quality problems. Inventory for a category is too high/low Temporization does not match reality

Advance Stack Diagnostics

Heuristic algorithims/Methods to find problems

List top 10 ROG and NOX sourcesOut of range for combination of:

plume concentration of NOX, Stack height/Plume Height, High plume height, etc.

Source not located in FIPS county identifiedReport of small source “fixed” by model. Low effective plume height at Large facility

STATE=Tennessee FACILITY TOTAL NOX TONS=242.46842577 Facility Name=TVA CUMBERLAND STEAM PLANT Facility ID=0011 COUNTY NAME=Stewart

County Stack Height Diameter Temp Velocity Flow Rate Device Process Emissions Hourly Day OF Week Obs ID ID (feet) (feet) deg. F ft/sec scf/min ID(BOILER) ID(FUEL) scc Tons/Day Profile # Profile #

5632 161 001 1000.00 31.0000 273.0 98.40 16666.00 1 22 10100202 166.491 24 7 5633 161 001 1000.00 31.0000 273.0 98.40 16666.00 1 51 10100501 0.080 24 7 5634 161 001 1000.00 31.0000 273.0 98.40 16666.00 2 22 10100202 75.867 24 7 5635 161 001 1000.00 31.0000 273.0 98.40 16666.00 2 51 10100501 0.030 24 7

Big NOX Report

Tier Reporting

Tier1: Direct Loss of emissions: Missing State, County ID, Facility ID, Invalid SCC code, Duplicate keys in 2 records, Invalid Pollutant ID

Tier2: Could lose emission: Bad Coordinate, Missing Facility ID in Emission record, Bad Area source SCC

Tier Reporting

Tier3: Results in System Default: Duplicate SCC codes in Process file, Missing UTM Coordinates in stack file: Stack ID missing in emission file.

Tier4: Non critical: Invalid SIC code, Stack Parameters out of range on small source

How an emissions modeler spends their time.

45%

10%

25%20%

Importing Data

Diagnosing I/OData Problems

ExecutingModel

Building otherinputs

PHOTOCHEMICAL MODEL RESOURCES

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CMAQ CAMx-M4 REMSAD MM5 EMS2001**

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Inputs Outputs Runtime

Processing speed and Disk I/O not relevant

Problems with Current Emissions Models

EMS-2002 requires SAS License($1,800 states/EPA, $19K

others) Developers(LADCO, WI, Alpine Geophysics)

SMOKE Sparse Matrix, difficult to decipher Complex new QA, exporting Difficult Developers(MCNC,?)

Rethinking Open Emissions ModelsNew models must build on strengths of old

models Code Open, Use GPL SQL software

Readable, Programmable, Exportable, ODBCFree, Run on Linux ClustersData transparency

Build many ad-hoc reporting tools Community development sharing of tools

Community Built Community is not: We all pitch in money to

one pot for one contractor.

Attributes of Early Open Emissions Models.

Shell scripts to run many days(No UI)Robust inventory problem identification and

repair(See EMS tier reporting + advanced stack diagnostics)

Data Transparency, Call up a dataset in a window(Allow query of dataset with complex Boolean query)

Works with CMAQ and PM-CAMX, REMSAD Strong couple with MM5.

UCR/LADCO Open Emissions Model White Paper

Define Core structure of Model Which SQL Product What Interfaces

Incremental development Early: Fires,Speciation, Dust, NH3 Later: Point, Area, Mobile, Biogenic

Development by a true Community LADCO, UCR, WI, MI, Alpine Geophysics,

Others ? Learn from “Cathedral And The Bazaar.”