Building A Better AmmoniaInventory

Mark Janssen – LADCO/Midwest RPO

Base E Ammonia Inventory

• Based on CMU ammonia inventory• NH3 emissions not from CMU

– Industrial point from modified EPA inventory– Small spotty amounts of NH3 from Nonroad – Vehicle NH3 from NEI

• Source NIF2.0 files of monthly values• All NH3 from Canadian inventory in “Other Area”• Does Not include

– Natural Soil NH3, Humans, Cats, Dogs

1999 July Day

1999 July Day

NH3 Emissions by SCC for the US 14:56 Wednesday, September 3, 2003 1

Obs scc majdesc sbmjdesc mindesc sbmndesc acee

1 2805025000 Miscellaneous Area Source Agriculture Production - Hogs and Pigs Waste Emiss Total 1935.66 2 2805020002 Miscellaneous Area Source Agriculture Production - Cattle and Calves Waste E Beef Cows 1398.03 3 2805030004 Miscellaneous Area Source Agriculture Production - Poultry Waste Emissions Broilers 1360.48 4 2805020004 Miscellaneous Area Source Agriculture Production - Cattle and Calves Waste E Steers, Steer Calves, Bul 979.70 5 2805020003 Miscellaneous Area Source Agriculture Production - Cattle and Calves Waste E Heifers and Heifer Calves 911.13 6 2805020001 Miscellaneous Area Source Agriculture Production - Cattle and Calves Waste E Milk Cows 758.49 7 2805030009 Miscellaneous Area Source Agriculture Production - Poultry Waste Emissions Turkeys 521.08 8 2805030003 Miscellaneous Area Source Agriculture Production - Poultry Waste Emissions Layers 450.98 9 2801700004 Miscellaneous Area Source Agriculture Production - Fertilizer Application Urea 426.80 10 2801700003 Miscellaneous Area Source Agriculture Production - Fertilizer Application Nitrogen Solutions 396.93 11 2807030000 Miscellaneous Area Source Wild Animals Waste Emissi Deer Total 341.25 12 2801700001 Miscellaneous Area Source Agriculture Production - Fertilizer Application Anhydrous Ammonia 264.95 13 2805035000 Miscellaneous Area Source Agriculture Production - Horses and Ponies Waste E Total 87.77 14 2805030002 Miscellaneous Area Source Agriculture Production - Poultry Waste Emissions Pullets 13 weeks old and 65.64 15 2807025000 Miscellaneous Area Source Wild Animals Waste Emissi Elk Total 63.63 16 2805030001 Miscellaneous Area Source Agriculture Production - Poultry Waste Emissions Pullet Chicks and Pullets 62.71 17 2801700013 Miscellaneous Area Source Agriculture Production - Fertilizer Application Diammonium Phosphate 59.79 18 2801700010 Miscellaneous Area Source Agriculture Production - Fertilizer Application N-P-K (multi-grade nutrie 46.51 19 2801700006 Miscellaneous Area Source Agriculture Production - Fertilizer Application Ammonium Sulfate 36.59 20 2801700099 Miscellaneous Area Source Agriculture Production - Fertilizer Application Miscellaneous Fertilizers 36.06 21 2801700005 Miscellaneous Area Source Agriculture Production - Fertilizer Application Ammonium Nitrate 23.53 22 2801700014 Miscellaneous Area Source Agriculture Production - Fertilizer Application Monoammonium Phosphate 12.12 23 2801700015 Miscellaneous Area Source Agriculture Production - Fertilizer Application Liquid Ammonium Polyphosp 11.57 24 2805040000 Miscellaneous Area Source Agriculture Production - Sheep and Lambs Waste Emi Total 10.62 25 2805030007 Miscellaneous Area Source Agriculture Production - Poultry Waste Emissions Ducks 9.85 26 2801700002 Miscellaneous Area Source Agriculture Production - Fertilizer Application Aqueous Ammonia 5.54 27 2807020001 Miscellaneous Area Source Wild Animals Waste Emissi Bears Black Bears 3.07 28 2801700007 Miscellaneous Area Source Agriculture Production - Fertilizer Application Ammonium Thiosulfate 1.20 29 2805045002 Miscellaneous Area Source Agriculture Production - Goats Waste Emissions Angora Goats 1.09 30 2801700011 Miscellaneous Area Source Agriculture Production - Fertilizer Application Calcium Ammonium Nitrate 0.69 31 2805030008 Miscellaneous Area Source Agriculture Production - Poultry Waste Emissions Geese 0.33 32 2801700012 Miscellaneous Area Source Agriculture Production - Fertilizer Application Potassium Nitrate 0.28 33 2805045003 Miscellaneous Area Source Agriculture Production - Goats Waste Emissions Milk Goats 0.20 34 2630020000 Waste Disposal, Treatment Wastewater Treatment Public Owned Total Processed 0.10 35 2807020002 Miscellaneous Area Source Wild Animals Waste Emissi Bears Grizzly Bears 0.01 ======== 10284.37

Milk COWS

Milk COWS

Beef Cows

Steers, Steer Calves. Bulls

Chicken: Layers

Chicken: Broilers

Turkeys

Deer

Fertilizer NH3

• Interesting data in Ohio for June/July• Crop fertilizer data shows that Ohio does more

than average “After Planting” fertilization of corn• Ohio also puts more than average amounts of

fertilizer on that corn• Results in a June/July spike in fertilizer not seen

in other Midwest/eastern states. Question Results?

• We created national average by month and applied it to all states for Base E.

Janssen’s Rule For Inventory Improvement

• Mass * % Uncertainty = Total Uncertainty

• Temper Point Source Bias

• Examples– Primary PM2.5 from Point sources– Nonroad Mobile– And…..

WHO CARES!!! 210 Tons of 13,000 Tons/day

Ammonia Temporal in Base E

• Primarily based on Pinder Dairy model– Month based NIF files from Strader Model. – “26” hour profile applied to smaller categories– No day of week profile.

• Hogs, Chickens used temporal data from CMU model for confined dairy

• Dairy Cattle Used CMU profiles and EFs• Beef Cattle used temporal for non-

confined Dairy• Fertilizer used Pinder hourly values.

Base D+ Inventory

Comparison with Inverse ModelFrom Pinder- CMU

Base C Base D Base EJanuary 2000

Base C Base D Base EAugust 1999

Future: Process Based model for Ammonia

• Recommendations from National Academy of Sciences Report

• “Model Farm” based emissions factors do not capture local/regional differences

• Must characterize local variation in practices. – NC farmers try to drive off Nitrogen in their waste – IA farmers try to keep Nitrogen in soil– Wisconsin farmers inject waste more than Texas

farmers.

Future: Process Based Model For Ammonia

• Process based model where individual farming practices drive emissions estimates

• Includes Mass Balance elements from feed to animals to waste products

• Must fit within OPEM emissions modeling paradigm(transparent, publicly available)

• Must calculate hour specific, day specific, and cell specific emissions ready for photochemical models

National Practices Model

Farm Emissions Model Inputs:

Climate: - Temperature - Precipitation - Wind speed

Tuned Parameters: - Resistance - Infiltration

Farm Emissions Model

kg NH3 cow-1 year-1

County Animal

Populationcows

CountyInventory

kg NH3 year-1

Housing = Freestall,Storage = Lagoon,Winter Confined, etc.

Housing = Tiestall,Storage = Lagoon,Drylot, etc.

.

.

.

.

From Pinder- CMU

Farm Emissions ModelNitrogen Flows

Housing

Grazing

Storage Application

Volatilization

VolatilizationVolatilizationVolatilization

Loss to soils, groundwater, and biota

Loss to soils, groundwater, and biota

Feed

Milk Feces

Urine

Urine

From Pinder- CMU

National Inventory

Counties.shp0< 4040 - 120120 - 250250 - 500500 - 1500

kg NH3 km-

2

From Pinder- CMU

January

Counties.shp0 - 0.50.5 - 11 - 1.51.5 - 22 - 2.52.5 - 33 - 3.53.5 - 44 - 5

July

Counties.shp0 - 0.50.5 - 11 - 1.51.5 - 22 - 2.52.5 - 33 - 3.53.5 - 44 - 5

kg NH3 cow-1 month-1

From Pinder- CMU

Ratio of July to January Emission Factors

Counties.shp1 - 22 - 33 - 44 - 55 - 66 - 7>7

Seasonal Variability in National Emissions

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

mill

ions

of k

g N

H3 m

onth

grazing

application

storage

housing

From Pinder- CMU

Status of Process Based NH3 Model

• RPO’s Fund Development • RFP in August: Supplemental in Oct 2 Due

October 22nd • Draft Model Due Late 2004, Final Draft

April 1 2005. Comment period until Fall 2005.

Other Midwest RPO NH3 Projects

• Build National 2002 NH3 inventory based on updated 2002 Census of Agriculture– April 2004 for 2002 NEI submissions– Wild Animal updates? – Included improvements to Midwest Fertilizer

1999-2002

• Midwest RPO Funds NH3 in Nonroad model.