pdc+++ module 4 class 1 peak

Energy & EcoTechnologyModule 4 of the PDC+++PDC

++

+We dedicate this Module to the Mother &

Father of Integral Permaculture: Dana Meadows & Howard Odum, two original

pioneers who helped humanity make great strides in understanding systemic

thinking, in all four quadrants.

Climate Change, Petrol Peak & Economic Crisis have been called the 3Es of Collapse: Environmental, Energetic & Economic.

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It is important to be well informed about the basic facts & science of these, how they interconnect, their causes & predictable effects.

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But also explore what cultural & inner meanings are being proposed & how we can turn these crises into opportunities.

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In this class we look at these issues in some detail. *

What does all this mean for us as integral designers for sustainability?

Class M4.1Peak

M4.1 Peak * Is our Society Collapsing?

"Peak Everything" - Interconnections

Systems Thinking Required!

Designing with Cultural Meanings

Micro & Macro of Problems & Solutions

POPULATION POPULATION GROWTHGROWTH

&&BIODIVERSITYBIODIVERSITYEXTINCTIONEXTINCTION

PEAK OILPEAK OIL CLIMATECLIMATECHANGECHANGE

MONETARYMONETARYCRISISCRISIS

&&RAISE OF THE RAISE OF THE INFORMATION INFORMATION

AGEAGE

2000200020202020

“In times of extraordinary

change,

the problem is NOT that we

can't achieve all that we can

dream,

but that we DON'T dream all

that we could achieve.”

(Dee Hock)

“Initially there was only a fixed and finite amount of oil in the ground, and that, as exploitation proceeds, the amount of oil remaining diminishes monotonically.”M.King Hubbert

Peak of Petrol Extraction

Oil formed some 90-150 million years ago, & there is a FINITE quantity

The extraction of all finite resources (eg. oil wells)

follow the Hubbert Curve

Peak oil is reached when HALF of the resource has been used:

> then the cost of extraction get increasingly higher as profits

diminish

(Peak = end of CHEAP oil)

Remember from Resources ClassM2.5 About Stocks

RenewablesNon-Renewableseg. chemicals, minerals

(petrol, coal, copper, etc.)eg. biological

(forests, fish, water, etc.)

Use 4 & 5 only to create

infrastructure

4) REDUCE with use

5) CAUSE POLLUTION when used 1) INCREASE when used moderately2) are NOT affected by

use3) DISAPPEAR / DEGRADE if not used

Stock - a place where energy is stored: eg. resources like forest biomass, soil, organic matter, coal, oxides,

etc.

extraction rate(eg. fish)

capital stocks(eg. ships, etc.)

reserve stock(eg. fish)

Renewable Resource

extraction rate(eg. petrol)

capital stock(eg. machinery)

reserve stock(eg. petrol)

Non-Renewable Stocks

... you see the same pattern

<<< Oil WellsPetrol is a non-

renewable stock

so Everywhere you look ...

Countries >>>

Global summary: Discoveries, production, demand

Thousands of annual barrels

Annual discoveriesProduction projectionAnnual discoveries Discoveries projection

Annual demandAnnual productionDemand projection

Sources

Are these just coincidentally

similar?

What are the relationships

between them?

Which drive Which

& how?

Energy and Population

First oil barrel

?

Oceans 40.000 GtCVegetation almost 600

GtCSoils 1600 GtC

Atmosphere retains almost

750 GtC

Fossil CO2

Dead Organisms

Carbon CycleEnergy and

Global Warming

GtC = Giga tons of Carbon1 Gt = 1 Billion tons

392 ppm2011

Transition Training 2007

End of last Ice Age

Start of Agriculture

IndustrialEra

XX & XXI centuries

PPM = Parts Per Million ..... 350 is a top max limit

Carbon Concentration in the Atmosphere

see >>

POPULATION POPULATION GROWTHGROWTH

&&BIODIVERSITYBIODIVERSITYEXTINCTIONEXTINCTION

PEAK PEAK OILOIL

CLIMATCLIMATEE

CHANGECHANGE

ECONOMIECONOMICC

CRISISCRISIS

2000200020202020

Why do we think & act as if these

major trends are somehow separate?

Two examples of dis-connected things(in our current way of thinking)

Matter/Energy ~ Money

Humanity ~ Nature

Source: http://emergysystems.org

Wealth stems from…

Money

Resources


Physical Laws of the Universe……

Don’t apply here…

Only apply here…


Systems & SubSystems

your circulatory system

heart

arteries

veins

capillaries

etc.

2) & complex systems in turn are made up of sub-systems

ElementsInterConnexions

Purpose

Systems Design - a Review1) they have these componentsDana Meadows

in class 2.1

HierarchyHolarchy

organ

organism

ecosystem

3) & sub-systems organize themselves into nested hierarchies (holarchies)

2) complex systems in turn are made up of sub-systems

Holons

Systems Design - a Review

ElementsinterConnections

Purpose

1) have these components 2) complex systems made up of sub-systems

3) sub-systems organized in nested hierarchies (holarchies)

4) & we have a great symbols language to make maps (models) of complex life systems

Systems Design - a Review

A System in HarmonyElements

InterConnexionsPurpose

your respiratory system

your digestive system

your circulatory system

heart

arteries

veins

capillaries

etc.

Eg. a healthy body: the whole self-regulates to keep you alive

&

Toward a CommonWork

Purpose

Administrators

balance the budget

Students

Professors

discover knowledge & pass it to future generations

to get good grades

to get tenure

ignore students in order to write their papers

cheat in exams

sack profesors

Sub-systems can enter into

conflict with the intended purpose

A System in Dis-HarmonyEg. a university: as intended & how can mis-align (bad design)

Purpose

Economy

thriving creativity &

commerce to supply all healthy

human needs (PEOPLE CARE)

Environment

Energy

toward maximum fertility & diversity (EARTH CARE)

use the least amount possible & slowly (REDUCE CONSUMPTION)

A System in Dis-Harmonya Rational System Vision (for our 'system') > a sustainable one > a PermaCulture

For all creatures to thrive

Purpose

Economy

thriving creativity &

commerce to supply all

healthy human needs

(PEOPLE CARE)

Environment

Energy

toward maximum fertility & diversity (EARTH CARE)


make it as cheap, abundant & universally available as

possible, with fast turn-over

try to adjust & survive under brutal attack

maximum consumption

at highest possible profit

Sub-systems in serious conflict

with Permaculture

Ethics

The current 'system' & how it might be currently mis-aligned or 'off purpose' (discuss in Aulas!) For all creatures to thrive or for

humans to dominate all species?

A System in Dis-Harmony

FOR Study-Groups:

"An 'ecological' orientation alone,

outside of a critical social framework, is dangerously unstable.

The record of fascist ecology shows that

under the right conditions such an orientation can quickly lead to

barbarism."

>> see Fascist Ecology article in e-Book

ENERGY DRIVER

make it as cheap, abundant &

universally available as possible, with fast

turn-over

ECONOMY DRIVER

maximum consumption at highest possible

profit

HOW DO EVEN JUST THE HUMAN-MADE DRIVERS ESSENTIALLY CLASH?

A SUSTAINABLE ECONOMY

thriving creativity & commerce to

supply all healthy human needs

(PEOPLE CARE)

SUSTAINABLE ENERGY USE


Rather than:

& how they could this clash 'resolve'

in a more oppressive world

government?

Creativity

Creative Descent(Permaculture)

Earth stewardship

Techno-fantasy

If we put creativity in the X axis ...

working to preserve the status quo

combined

with the belief the new technologies will solve our

problems

longing for an earlier social and moral order

+ anger at having lost

control over our future

The two most typical “strategies” to face the global crisis correspond with these future scenarios

FEAR can bea Motivator

or a Paralyzing influence

WhenHow

For Which People?

But both strategies are not so different, both are based in a belief that we can do little to change things

and both are anchored in the past:

advocates of the status quo basically extrapolate what they regard as positive trends from the past;

opponents fight these trends.

“Either we are saved by science & technology

or

we will have to go back to the caves”

The 4th scenario has to be based on different assumptions, Eg.:

The future will be Very Different from the past

& Lower consumption = Higher Standard of Life

So we will need to

“learn from the future as it emerges”

PEAK PEAK OILOIL

CLIMATECLIMATECHANGECHANGE

2000200020202020

For study groups: All of these are now converging

in a small window of time

>> or a small window of

opportunity?

What OTHER meanings can we DESIGN for these times? & where will they lead us?

extinction of extinction of biodiversitybiodiversity

&&the gray the gray

wavewave

monetary monetary instabilityinstability

&&info info

revolutionrevolution

Why have we created such a big crisis,

collectively?

Technology is the Application of science

BUT ...

• WHICH science do we need to apply to solve THESE problems?

• WHICH QUADRANT/S REALLY NEED THE MOST WORK HERE?

PDC

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+

Technology is the Application of science

Given that ...• we have known of the problems since the late 1960s

• the solutions are relatively simple & most are also quick to implement

• There have been innumerable international conferences about these

• huge amounts of resources (especially international travel) are going into trying to resolve them

• & our lives + the world as we know it depend on reaching an agreement

But we haven't reached an Agreementin some 50+ years

Why?

Fractals are patterns that repeat

with mathematical accuracy

Although each part might not

Look anything like the wholeor some other part

When did you last have an argumentWhich started as apparently

insoluble & you successfully

arrived at a WIN-WIN agreement?or at least a

MUTUAL understanding?

USE this processnon-selectively!(not just when 'convenient')

ConflictResolution

your story

my story

cycl

ecy

cle

dogma

THINKReflexion

ar

ACT

Observe

Design

Hypothesis

PredictionExperiment

what is "conflict"?

gossipigossipist st

/therapi/therapist st

M1.6M1.6

Perception Is Not Reality

M3.3M3.3

The general Larger Pattern seems to be

an Inability to Resolve Conflict

we AvoidDemonizeBelittle

Not Listen

Get Impatient

Fear arguing

& Don't have adequate

Technologies !!& Knowledge

So maybe..

learning to LET things"come to a Head"

is an important Micro-way to Ultimately solve

the general Macro-Problem

Learning to Accept & Work with+

Harvest the Rich Yields ofOur "Dark Side"

Discussin

Aulas!!

& aim to disagree

:)