1

School Completers andEarly Leavers – What Next?

Department of Education and SkillsCSO Administrative Data Seminar 20th February 2014

Nicola Tickner

2 Starting point

The Department of Education and Skills took the initiative to explore the potential of data matching to fill current data gaps following the publication of the National Statistics Board report entitled ‘The Irish Statistics System: The Way Forward and Joined Up Government Needs Joined Up Data’ in December 2011

Undertaken an officer of statistics under the stats act, in the CSO

The tracking was carried out using data matching and was also supplemented with estimations for other destinations for which individualised data was not available

3 Overview Starting Point – Pupils Enrolled on the Post Primary

Pupil Database in the 2009/2010 academic year but not in the 2010/2011 academic year

54,824 were School Completers (i.e. were enrolled in final year of LC in 2009/2010)

7,713 were Early Leavers (i.e. left prior to final year of LC)

Explored the potential of data matching to fill current data gaps (as an officer of statistics under the stats act, in the CSO)

Matched against other available data sources (CSOPPSN)

Estimations also used where individualised data not available

4 School Completers -Summary

Higher Education Second Level/Further Educa-

tion

Social Welfare Activ-ity

Employment Other0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

50.4

27.6

7.310.3

4.5

Graph A: School Completers Classified by Destination%

5School Completers – Progression to Higher Education

44% direct match with HEA Student Record System

More males (44.5%) than females (43.5%) Additional Estimates of

0.5% (non PPSN coverage) 2.3% Non HEA Aided Institutions 3.6% Higher Education Abroad (mostly UK)

Overall, 50.4% progressed directly to Higher Ed

6School Completers Who Progressed Directly to Higher Education

(following information refers to HEA Aided Institutions Only)

48.1% of those who pursued the traditional LC

52.0% of those who repeated LC 43.2% of those who pursued the LCVP

Of those in Higher Ed, 41.6% had employment activity during 2010 (males 45.6%, females 37.5%)

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Some Pupils Some Sub-jects Through Irish

Some Pupils All Subjects Through Irish

No Irish

All Irish

non-DEIS

DEIS

Comprehensive

Community

Vocational

Secondary - Non Fee Charging

Secondary - Fee Charging

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0

44.4

41.3

43.7

57.5

49.1

24.2

42.4

38.2

34.4

47.2

65.5

Percentage of School Com-pleters from Schools with

Various Characteristics who Progressed Directly to Higher

Education

%

8 School Completers – Progression to PLC courses

19.8% direct progression rate Increasing, was 16.4% in 2001/2002

37.3% of School Completers who pursued the LCA

21.9% of School Completers who pursued the LCVP

17.5% of School Completers who pursued the LC

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Some Pupils Some Subjects Through Irish

Some Pupils All Subjects Through Irish

No Irish

All Irish

non-DEIS

DEIS

Comprehensive

Community

Vocational

Secondary - Non Fee Charging

Secondary - Fee Charging

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.016.8

24.5

20.0

11.6

18.0

27.1

21.1

22.5

23.7

19.1

6.8

Percentage of School Completers from Schools with Various Characteristics who

Progressed Directly to to PLC courses

%

10 Early Leavers - Summary

Second Level/Further Education

Social Welfare Activity Employment Outward Migration Education Outside the State

Other0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0 55.0

6.6 6.11.6

13.916.9

Graph B: Early Leavers - Classified by Destination%

11Early Leavers - Summary (contd/…)

Early Leavers - Classified by Destination in 2010 Number % of Cohort

Total Cohort 7,713 100.0

Of which enrolled in

Post-Leaving Cert. Course (PLC) 114 1.5 FÁS Course 2010 473 6.1

Of those remaining Social Welfare Activity on 31st December 2010 511 6.6

Of those with no social welfare activity on 31st December 2010 Employment Activity During 2010 469 6.1

Outward Migration up to June 2010~ 120 1.6 Enrolled in Education or Training Outside of the State 1,070 13.9

Estimates for Youthreach* 1,941 25.2

Enrolled in Private Educational Institutions* 1,711 22.2

Other (includes emigration, seasonal employment abroad and all other categories) 1,304 16.9 * See Background Notes.

~ Data source only covers why students left between 30th of September and 30th of June.

12 Early Leavers – Time Series

2003/2004 2004/2005 2005/2006 2006/2007 2007/2008 2008/2009 2009/20100.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

2.7 2.7 2.8 3.02.7 2.5 2.4

4.0 4.0 3.9 3.83.2

2.7 2.6

Early Leavers classified by Sex as a Percentage of Total Enrolment Males

Females

13 Early Leavers – Differences in Gender? Higher proportion of male Early

Leavers enrol in PLC courses Higher proportion of female Early

Leavers enrol in FÁS courses More males than females in Youthreach More males than females in Education

or Training outside the State

14 Early Leavers by Programme 4,414 (57.2% )left before enrolment in year 1

of a LC programme High proportion of Early Leavers who left after

JC year 3 or TY estimated to be in Youthreach but also a sizeable amount who left after enrolment in LC year 1

By programme, the most leavers for whom destination is unknown are for those who leave after first or second year of JC/JCSP (777)

Particularly for females (520)

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Some pupils taught some subjects through Irish

Some pupils taught all subjects through Irish

No subjects taught through Irish

All pupils taught all subjects through Irish

non-DEIS

DEIS

Comprehensive

Community

Vocational

Secondary Non Fee Charging

Secondary Fee Charging

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5

3.3

2.5

2.5

1.0

2.1

3.9

1.4

2.2

3.0

2.1

3.8

Percentage of Early Leavers from Schools with Various Characteristics

%

School Characteristic

16 Early Leavers - Classified by Nationality

Total Enrolment*

All Early

Leavers

% of Total Enrolment

Irish Nationality 283,721 4,895 1.7 British Nationality 6363 282 4.4 Nationality of a State in the EU 15 except Ireland and the United Kingdom

3,010 1,405 46.7

Nationality of State in the EU 12 8061 492 6.1 Nationality of Another State in Europe other than the EU 27 1106 55 5.0 Nationality of the USA or Canada 1404 103 7.3 Nationality of a Country in Latin or Southern America 442 71 16.1 Nationality of a Country in Asia 3754 198 5.3 Nationality of a Country in Africa 3989 177 4.4 Nationality of a Country in Australasia or Oceania 303 35 11.6

Total 312,153 7,713 2.5 * Includes pupils in final year of senior cycle.

The EU 15 comprises the countries before enlargement of the EU on 1 May 2004 (i.e. Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, Portugal, United Kingdom).

The EU 12 is defined as the 10 accession countries that joined the EU on 1 May 2004 (i.e. Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia) and includes the two new accession states that joined the EU on 1 January 2007 (i.e. Bulgaria and Romania).

17 Links to Reports

  http://www.education.ie/en/Publications/Statistics/Sc

hool-Completers-What-Next-.pdf

http://www.education.ie/en/Publications/Statistics/Early-Leavers-What-Next-.pdf

Published May 2013 Also some additional tables on website

18 Future plans

Repeat of exercise for following years cohort Possible expansion of the data depending on data

sources available Exploration of the data presented to show the

destinations of the School Completers after two years

19 Current Position on Data Sharing Putting a National Data Infrastructure in place is

central to the Public Service Reform Plan. This would put in place an infrastructure to allow the efficient running of our public administration.

The National Statistics Board has highlighted the importance of developing such an infrastructure (both national and regional) and has suggested that this would compromise of three key pillars, all with a unique identifier 1. people (PPSN), 2. businesses (unique business identifier) 3. and buildings (postcode).

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Draft legislation is in place focusing on PPSN but also on the unique Health Identifier.

Focus no longer on business identifier. Progress has been made on the implementation of

postcodes (March 2015). Data Sharing would be greatly helped if facilitated

by legislation.

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Comments or Questions?

Nicola_Tickner@education.gov.ie