Modeling Issues of the DeltaModeling Issues of the DeltaIntroductionIntroduction

Jamie Anderson Ph.D., P.E.CWEMF WorkshopFebruary 6, 2007

Modeling Support BranchBay Delta Office

Core QuestionsCore Questions• What are the intended applications of

Delta models in the next 10 years?

• What is the current performance of Delta models in historical simulations and in foreseeable applications?

• What are areas for improvement for Delta models?

Applications of Delta ModelsApplications of Delta Models• Application types

– Historical– Forecasting (real-time and longer term)– Planning

• Simulation types– Hydrodynamics (flow and water levels)– Conservative constituents (salinity)– Non-conservative constituents (DO, TOC, etc)– Particle tracking – Temperature– Sediment transport

Future Applications of Delta ModelsFuture Applications of Delta Models• Real-time applications

– Operations– Emergency Response

• Planning applications– Sea level rise– Island flooding– Frank’s Tract / 3-Mile Slough– Shallow water habitat restoration– Storage and conveyance alternatives– South Delta and other barriers/gates– Changes in operations

Types of ModelsTypes of ModelsEmpirical ANN 1-D 2-D 3-D

CostComplexity

Data Requirements

Technical Managers Public

Complexity

Communication of ResultsCommunication of Results

Model PerformanceModel Performance• DSM2 evaluation and possible recalibration

– Dec 14, 2006 CWEMF Workshop

• CALFED project– Issues Affecting the Predictive Ability of

One-Dimensional Delta Hydrodynamic and Water Quality Models

Areas for ImprovementAreas for Improvement

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Upstream model boundary

Flow into Delta Cross Channel

Salinity transport through Franks Tract

Hourly variation in pumping at Banks

Stratification and seawater intrusion

Salinity parameters

Uncertainties in Model input

• Geometry – Datum, Data, Changes

• Delta agricultural use – net use, salt load

• Banks pumping

• Duck clubs

• Field data

• Salinity parameters

Model formulations and assumptions

• Model boundary

• Friction coefficient

• Mixing (dispersion) coefficient

• Open water areas

• DCC gates

• Wind

Measures of model performance

• Prior comparisons

• Metrics, weighting schemes

• Presentation of results

Delta agriculture

Focuses in Workshop:Focuses in Workshop:

• Review where we are

• Identify challenges and potential improvements in future applications

• Discuss future directions and identify areas of consensus