march 2013's monthly indicators report - boston real estate market trends
DESCRIPTION
Here's March 2013's Monthly Indicators report from the Greater Boston Association of Realtors®. Shortage of homes to buy has pushed sales down in March as buyer interest remains high. Prices continue to move up because demand for available homes to buy is outpacing supply. A vibrant housing market has a good selection of homes for sale at all price ranges. • March single-family home sales – DOWN 3.3% over last year • 2nd straight month of declines after 19 straight months of increases. • March Single-family median prices were UP 7.8% to $290,000(6th straight increase) • Condo sales up 2.5% and median prices UP 8.0% ($270,000) • Inventory had its biggest year-over-year decrease since MAR has been tracking this data Down 34%TRANSCRIPT
Monthly Indicators A RESEARCH TOOL PROVIDED BY THE GREATER BOSTON ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
March 2013 Quick Facts
- 3.7%
Year-Over-Year(YoY) Change inClosed Sales
Single-Family Only
With spring here in all its bounty, it's time to renew, refresh and revive our understanding of what's fueling the ongoing market recovery. First, tightened inventory levels combined with strong demand are fueling price gains in many areas. Second, consumer demand is shifting from distressed properties to conventional homes. Third, record-low mortgage rates and rising rents are supporting housing recovery. Let's check the local scene.
+ 2.1%Year-Over-Year(YoY) Change inClosed Sales
Condominium Only
- 0.9%Year-Over-Year(YoY) Change inClosed SalesAll Properties
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10111213
Data is refreshed regularly to capture changes in market activity so figures shown may be different than previously reported. Current as of April 16, 2013. All data from MLS PropertyInformation Network, Inc. Provided by Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing.
New Listings in the Greater Boston region were down 30.7 percent for detached homes and 21.5 percent for condominiums. Closed Sales decreased 3.7 percent for detached homes but increased 2.1 percent for condominiums.
The Median Sales Price was up 3.7 percent to $430,101 for single-family properties and 19.7 percent to $407,000 for condominiums. Months Supply of Inventory decreased 38.7 percent for single-family units and 44.0 percent for townhouse-condo units.
On the economic front, things inched forward. We saw a minor but important upward revision to Q4-2012 GDP growth that put us back in positive territory. In the political arena, key debates over the deficit, marriage, gun law, immigration reform and tax policy rage onward. The squeaky wheel gets the grease, and with this emerging housing recovery, there are no imminent housing-related bills. Perhaps that's a good thing.
Single-Family Market Overview
Condominium Market Overview
Closed Sales
Median Sales Price
Housing Affordability Index
Inventory of Homes for Sale
Click on desired metric to jump to that page.
Months Supply of Inventory
Days On Market Until Sale
Percent of Original List Price Received
City of Boston Overview
Pending Sales
New Listings
Single-Family Market Overview Key market metrics for the current month and year-to-date figures for Single-Family Homes Only.
Key Metrics Historical Sparklines Mar-2012 Mar-2013 + / – YTD 2012 YTD 2013 + / –
Median Sales Price
- 41.0% -- --
+ 3.3% 119 121 + 1.8%
--
Housing Affordability Index
Inventory of Homes for Sale
$414,838 + 5.5%
117 121
4,670 2,755
$430,101 + 3.7% $407,500
1,660 + 1.5%Closed Sales 648 624 - 3.7% 1,635
$430,000
3-2010 3-2011 3-2012 3-2013
3-2010 3-2011 3-2012 3-2013
3-2010 3-2011 3-2012 3-2013
3-2010 3-2011 3-2012 3-2013
91.7% 94.4%
- 17.6%
+ 2.9%Percent of OriginalList Price Received
Days on Market Until Sale
93.0%
- 17.8%
+ 2.3%
107
95.1%
Pending Sales + 5.8%2,288983 1,041 + 5.9% 2,162
Months Supply of Inventory 7.2
130 108
-- -- --4.4 - 38.7%
131
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 2
New Listings 2,008 1,391 - 30.7% 4,290 3,321 - 22.6%
3 2010 3 2011 3 2012 3 2013
3-2010 3-2011 3-2012 3-2013
3-2010 3-2011 3-2012 3-2013
3-2010 3-2011 3-2012 3-2013
3-2010 3-2011 3-2012 3-2013
3-2010 3-2011 3-2012 3-2013
Condominium Market Overview Key market metrics for the current month and year-to-date figures for Condominium Properties Only.
Key Metrics Historical Sparklines Mar-2012 Mar-2013 + / – YTD 2012 YTD 2013 + / –
+ 11.5%
Median Sales Price $340,000 $407,000 + 19.7% $350,000 $380,000 + 8.6%
Closed Sales 607 620 + 2.1% 1,403 1,564
- 1.4%
Inventory of Homes for Sale 3,692 2,110 - 42.8% -- -- --
Housing Affordability Index 141 128 - 9.2% 137 135
3-2010 3-2011 3-2012 3-2013
3-2010 3-2011 3-2012 3-2013
3-2010 3-2011 3-2012 3-2013
3-2010 3-2011 3-2012 3-2013
--
Days on Market Until Sale 117 72 - 38.8% 121 84 - 31.0%
Months Supply of Inventory 6.1 3.4 - 44.0% -- --
+ 3.5%
Pending Sales 1,008 1,028 + 2.0% 2,126 2,284 + 7.4%
Percent of OriginalList Price Received
94.0% 97.6% + 3.8% 93.5% 96.8%
- 15.4%
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 3
New Listings 1,741 1,366 - 21.5% 3,836 3,247
3 2010 3 2011 3 2012 3 2013
3-2010 3-2011 3-2012 3-2013
3-2010 3-2011 3-2012 3-2013
3-2010 3-2011 3-2012 3-2013
3-2010 3-2011 3-2012 3-2013
3-2010 3-2011 3-2012 3-2013
Closed Sales A count of the actual sales that have closed in a given month.
Single-FamilyYoY
ChangeCondominium
YoYChange
Apr-2012 743 + 12.6% 758 + 20.1%
May-2012 1,005 + 20.5% 1,012 + 32.1%
Jun-2012 1,510 + 21.3% 1,264 + 20.3%
Jul-2012 1,279 + 25.3% 1,041 + 21.8%
Aug-2012 1,299 + 26.0% 1,204 + 25.3%
Sep-2012 766 - 1.2% 753 + 16.4%
Oct-2012 791 + 28.6% 712 + 39.1%
Nov-2012 907 + 32.6% 760 + 35.0%
Dec-2012 824 + 11.8% 768 + 19.4%
Jan-2013 605 + 15.7% 513 + 24.5%
Feb-2013 431 - 7.1% 431 + 12.2%
Mar-2013 624 - 3.7% 620 + 2.1%
556 547
648607624 620
March
20132012 20132012
1,3671,290
1,635
1,403
1,6601,564
Year to Date
20132012 201320122011 2011 2011 2011
Total 10,784 + 16.7% 9,836 + 22.5%
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 4
Single-Family Condominium
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
Jan-2003 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013
Historical Closed Sales Activity Single-Family Condominium
+2.1%+11.0%+16.5%
Single-Family Condominium+11.5%+8.8%+19.6%-3.7% +1.5%
Median Sales Price Median price point for all closed sales, not accounting for seller concessions, in a given month.
Single-FamilyYoY
ChangeCondominium
YoYChange
Apr-2012 $418,500 - 2.9% $371,500 + 4.6%
May-2012 $465,000 + 1.4% $381,000 + 4.4%
Jun-2012 $503,250 - 0.3% $400,000 + 6.7%
Jul-2012 $510,000 + 2.0% $387,000 + 6.3%
Aug-2012 $490,000 - 1.8% $380,000 + 3.0%
Sep-2012 $430,475 - 4.3% $375,000 + 2.0%
Oct-2012 $430,000 + 10.3% $368,133 + 5.6%
Nov-2012 $447,500 + 5.8% $380,000 + 8.2%
Dec-2012 $470,000 + 6.8% $382,000 + 10.7%
Jan-2013 $430,000 + 6.2% $375,000 + 5.6%
Feb-2013 $429,799 + 8.8% $350,750 - 5.2%
Mar-2013 $430,101 + 3.7% $407,000 + 19.7%
$420,950
$325,000
$414,838
$340,000
$430,101$407,000
March
20132012 20132012
$414,400
$339,000
$407,500
$350,000
$430,000
$380,000
Year to Date
20132012 201320122011 2011 2011 2011
Median $463,000 + 2.9% $382,000 + 6.1%
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 5
Single-Family Condominium
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
$500,000
$550,000
Jan-2003 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013
Historical Median Sales Price Single-Family Condominium
+19.7%+4.6%-1.5%
Single-Family Condominium+8.6%+3.2%-1.7%+3.7% +5.5%
Housing Affordability Index
Single-FamilyYoY
ChangeCondominium
YoYChange
Apr-2012 118 + 18.1% 132 + 10.2%
May-2012 109 + 13.2% 131 + 10.1%
Jun-2012 102 + 14.4% 126 + 7.4%
Jul-2012 102 + 13.9% 131 + 9.5%
Aug-2012 105 + 14.0% 133 + 9.0%
Sep-2012 121 + 17.2% 137 + 10.4%
Oct-2012 120 + 3.2% 139 + 7.3%
Nov-2012 117 + 6.8% 135 + 4.6%
Dec-2012 113 + 6.8% 136 + 3.3%
Jan-2013 125 + 3.7% 141 + 4.2%
Feb-2013 122 - 2.0% 146 + 11.0%
Mar-2013 121 + 3.3% 128 - 9.2%
This index measures housing affordability for the region. An index of 120 means the median household income was 120% of what is necessary to qualify for the median-priced home under prevailing interest rates. A higher number means greater affordability.
101
128117
141
121128
March
103
124119
137
121
135
Year to Date
20132012 20132012 20132012 201320122011 2011 2011 2011
Average 115 +9.4% 135 +6.5%
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 6
Single-Family Condominium
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013
Historical Housing Affordability Index Single-Family Condominium
-9.2%+9.5%+15.8%
Single-Family Condominium-1.4%+10.8%+16.0%+3.3% +1.8%
Inventory of Homes for Sale The number of properties available for sale in active status at the end of a given month.
Single-FamilyYoY
ChangeCondominium
YoYChange
Apr-2012 5,019 - 4.4% 3,846 - 25.6%
May-2012 5,116 - 9.7% 3,659 - 29.8%
Jun-2012 4,799 - 15.2% 3,394 - 33.3%
Jul-2012 4,374 - 20.7% 3,130 - 33.5%
Aug-2012 4,028 - 23.9% 2,734 - 35.1%
Sep-2012 4,236 - 24.0% 2,858 - 33.8%
Oct-2012 3,964 - 25.8% 2,631 - 35.7%
Nov-2012 3,350 - 26.2% 2,239 - 37.6%
Dec-2012 2,533 - 29.9% 1,703 - 39.5%
Jan-2013 2,560 - 29.9% 1,795 - 39.6%
Feb-2013 2,697 - 33.3% 1,972 - 39.5%
Mar-2013 2,755 - 41.0% 2,110 - 42.8%
4,571 4,6794,670
3,692
2,755
2,110
March
20132012 201320122011 2011
Average 3,786 - 22.7% 2,673 - 34.7%
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 7
Single-Family Condominium
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
Jan-2003 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013
Historical Inventory of Homes for Sale Single-Family Condominium
-42.8%-21.1%+2.2% -41.0%
Months Supply of Inventory The inventory of homes for sale at the end of a given month, divided by the average monthly pending sales from the last 12 months.
Single-FamilyYoY
ChangeCondominium
YoYChange
Apr-2012 6.8 - 15.1% 5.1 - 38.1%
May-2012 5.1 - 25.1% 3.6 - 46.9%
Jun-2012 3.2 - 30.1% 2.7 - 44.6%
Jul-2012 3.4 - 36.7% 3.0 - 45.4%
Aug-2012 3.1 - 39.6% 2.3 - 48.2%
Sep-2012 5.5 - 23.1% 3.8 - 43.1%
Oct-2012 5.0 - 42.3% 3.7 - 53.7%
Nov-2012 3.7 - 44.3% 2.9 - 53.8%
Dec-2012 3.1 - 37.3% 2.2 - 49.3%
Jan-2013 4.2 - 39.4% 3.5 - 51.5%
Feb-2013 6.3 - 28.2% 4.6 - 46.1%
Mar-2013 4.4 - 38.7% 3.4 - 44.0%
8.28.6
7.2
6.1
4.4
3.4
March
20132012 201320122011 2011
Average 4.5 - 32.6% 3.6 - 43.4%
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 8
Single-Family Condominium
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013
Historical Months Supply of Inventory Single-Family Condominium
-44.0%-28.9%-12.3% -38.7%
Days on Market Until Sale Average number of days between when a property is listed and when an offer is accepted in a given month.
Single-FamilyYoY
ChangeCondominium
YoYChange
Apr-2012 120 - 1.7% 98 - 16.8%
May-2012 96 - 5.9% 86 - 11.9%
Jun-2012 90 - 0.2% 75 - 20.4%
Jul-2012 80 - 3.9% 71 - 20.6%
Aug-2012 87 - 5.8% 76 - 18.2%
Sep-2012 89 - 12.0% 85 - 18.1%
Oct-2012 90 - 17.6% 84 - 11.5%
Nov-2012 89 - 18.0% 77 - 29.9%
Dec-2012 97 - 12.4% 84 - 30.1%
Jan-2013 109 - 16.5% 88 - 29.4%
Feb-2013 109 - 18.6% 95 - 22.7%
Mar-2013 107 - 17.8% 72 - 38.8%
135123
130117
107
72
March
126 129131121
108
84
Year to Date
20132012 20132012 20132012 201320122011 2011 2011 2011
Total 94 - 10.6% 76 - 20.4%
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 9
Single-Family Condominium
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Jan-2003 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013
Historical Days on Market Until Sale Single-Family Condominium
-38.8%-4.6%-3.1%
Single-Family Condominium-31.0%-6.1%+4.2%-17.8% -17.6%
Percent of Original List Price Received
Single-FamilyYoY
ChangeCondominium
YoYChange
Apr-2012 93.5% + 0.8% 95.7% + 2.0%
May-2012 95.4% + 1.1% 96.1% + 1.0%
Jun-2012 95.3% + 0.8% 96.3% + 1.8%
Jul-2012 95.8% + 1.6% 96.6% + 1.7%
Aug-2012 94.8% + 1.5% 96.3% + 2.2%
Sep-2012 94.6% + 1.5% 96.4% + 2.3%
Oct-2012 94.3% + 2.8% 95.9% + 2.4%
Nov-2012 94.6% + 2.3% 96.2% + 2.5%
Dec-2012 94.2% + 2.2% 96.2% + 3.4%
Jan-2013 93.8% + 3.6% 96.0% + 3.3%
Feb-2013 94.1% + 3.2% 96.7% + 3.6%
Mar-2013 95.1% + 2.3% 97.6% + 3.8%
Percentage found when dividing a property’s sales price by its original list price, then taking the average for all properties sold in a given month, not accounting for seller concessions.
92.3% 93.2%93.0% 94.0%95.1% 97.6%
March
91.5% 92.6%91.7% 93.5%94.4% 96.8%
Year to Date
20132012 20132012 20132012 201320122011 2011 2011 2011
Average 94.8% + 1.8% 96.3% + 2.3%
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 10
Single-Family Condominium
89%
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
Jan-2003 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013
Historical Percent of Original List Price Received Single-Family Condominium
+3.8%+0.9%+0.7%
Single-Family Condominium+3.5%+1.0%+0.2%+2.3% +2.9%
Pending Sales A count of the properties in UAG status between the first and last day in a given month, regardless of current status (based on Off Market Date).
Single-FamilyYoY
ChangeCondominium
YoYChange
Apr-2012 1,142 + 21.7% 1,047 + 24.6%
May-2012 1,325 + 23.0% 1,266 + 28.9%
Jun-2012 1,254 + 13.2% 1,039 + 19.3%
Jul-2012 1,044 + 26.2% 830 + 8.9%
Aug-2012 895 + 17.0% 815 + 22.4%
Sep-2012 839 + 27.5% 716 + 38.2%
Oct-2012 868 + 17.6% 818 + 38.4%
Nov-2012 785 + 16.5% 661 + 17.6%
Dec-2012 595 + 5.9% 501 + 7.1%
Jan-2013 579 + 7.2% 612 + 26.7%
Feb-2013 668 + 4.5% 644 + 1.4%
Mar-2013 1,041 + 5.9% 1,028 + 2.0%
785 763
983 1,0081,041 1,028
March
1,731 1,681
2,162 2,1262,288 2,284
Year to Date
20132012 20132012 20132012 201320122011 2011 2011 2011
Total 11,035 + 16.0% 9,977 + 19.0%
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 11
Single-Family Condominium
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Jan-2003 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013
Historical Pending Sales Activity Single-Family Condominium
+2.0%+32.1%+25.2%
Single-Family Condominium+7.4%+26.5%+24.9%+5.9% +5.8%
New Listings A count of the properties that have been newly listed on the market in a given month.
Single-FamilyYoY
ChangeCondominium
YoYChange
Apr-2012 1,798 - 8.8% 1,499 - 13.0%
May-2012 1,783 - 4.6% 1,387 - 7.6%
Jun-2012 1,352 - 15.3% 1,152 - 14.2%
Jul-2012 1,022 - 12.5% 902 - 7.6%
Aug-2012 1,001 - 8.7% 790 - 7.5%
Sep-2012 1,419 - 10.2% 1,153 - 9.6%
Oct-2012 1,079 - 4.5% 881 - 2.1%
Nov-2012 650 - 3.1% 561 - 10.4%
Dec-2012 365 - 19.2% 318 - 18.0%
Jan-2013 903 - 6.2% 915 - 4.1%
Feb-2013 1,027 - 22.1% 966 - 15.3%
Mar-2013 1,391 - 30.7% 1,366 - 21.5%
1,944 1,9712,008
1,741
1,391 1,366
March
3,6604,026
4,290
3,836
3,321 3,247
Year to Date
20132012 20132012 20132012 201320122011 2011 2011 2011
Total 13,790 - 12.8% 11,890 - 11.4%
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 12
Single-Family Condominium
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
2,000
2,250
2,500
2,750
Jan-2003 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013
Historical New Listing Activity Single-Family Condominium
-21.5%-11.7%+3.3%
Single-Family Condominium-15.4%-4.7%+17.2%-30.7% -22.6%
City of Boston – Market Overview Key market metrics for the current month and year-to-date figures for the City of Boston.
Key Metrics Historical Sparklines Mar-2012 Mar-2013 + / – YTD 2012 YTD 2013 + / –
+ 4.3%
Median Sales Price $372,500 $412,500 + 10.7% $379,000 $409,950 + 8.2%
Closed Sales 362 345 - 4.7% 806 841
+ 1.8%
Inventory of Homes for Sale 1,996 1,046 - 47.6% -- -- --
Housing Affordability Index 117 121 + 3.3% 119 121
3-2010 3-2011 3-2012 3-2013
3-2010 3-2011 3-2012 3-2013
3-2010 3-2011 3-2012 3-2013
3-2010 3-2011 3-2012 3-2013
--
Days on Market Until Sale 114 64 - 43.5% 117 73 - 38.0%
Months Supply of Inventory 5.5 3.0 - 45.0% -- --
+ 3.6%
Pending Sales 547 559 + 2.2% 1,176 1,238 + 5.3%
Percent of OriginalList Price Received
93.8% 97.5% + 3.9% 93.6% 97.0%
- 19.1%
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 13
New Listings 991 731 - 26.2% 2,208 1,786
3 2010 3 2011 3 2012 3 2013
3-2010 3-2011 3-2012 3-2013
3-2010 3-2011 3-2012 3-2013
3-2010 3-2011 3-2012 3-2013
3-2010 3-2011 3-2012 3-2013
3-2010 3-2011 3-2012 3-2013