managing ozone pollution in wisconsin - harvard...
TRANSCRIPT
Managing Ozone Pollution in Wisconsin
Angela Dickens, Ph.D. Policy Analyst Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources
http://blogs.agu.org/wildwildscience/2012/06/06/chicagos-air-conditioner-lake-michigan/ AQAST 8 – December 2-3, 2014
Draft Ozone Design Values – 2012-2014
Data have not been QA’ed and are subject to change 2
Draft Ozone Design Values – 2012-2014
Data have not been QA’ed and are subject to change 3
Nonattainment for 1997 & 2008 standards
Nonattainment for 2008 standard
4
Lakeshore Ozone in Wisconsin
5
Lakeshore Ozone in Wisconsin
Chicago
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Lakeshore Ozone in Wisconsin
Chicago
Milwaukee
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Lakeshore Ozone in Wisconsin
Chicago
Milwaukee
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Lakeshore Ozone in Wisconsin
Chicago
Milwaukee
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Lakeshore Ozone in Wisconsin
Chicago
Milwaukee
NOx + VOC O3
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Lakeshore Ozone in Wisconsin
Chicago
Milwaukee
NOx + VOC O3
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Lakeshore Ozone in Wisconsin
Chicago
Milwaukee
NOx + VOC O3
12
Sheboygan (2018 projections, days > 70 ppb)
Ozone Sources to WI Lakeshore
OSAT results from LADCO (Alex Cohan)
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Sheboygan (2018 projections, days > 70 ppb)
Ozone Sources to WI Lakeshore
OSAT results from LADCO (Alex Cohan)
WI contributes 14%
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Sheboygan (2018 projections, days > 70 ppb)
Ozone Sources to WI Lakeshore
OSAT results from LADCO (Alex Cohan)
WI contributes 14% Marine vessels:
7-8%???
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Sheboygan (2018 projections, days > 70 ppb)
Ozone Sources to WI Lakeshore
OSAT results from LADCO (Alex Cohan)
30% from boundary conditions Marine vessels: 7-8%???
WI contributes 14%
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>75 ppb
Ozone Sources to WI Lakeshore
HYSPLIT Analysis for 2011-2013
Colors = point density More Less Dense Dense
High
ozo
ne d
ays
17
>75 ppb
Ozone Sources to WI Lakeshore
HYSPLIT Analysis for 2011-2013
• Influence of Chicago/Lake Michigan • Also Ohio River Valley • The Lake isn’t always involved
Colors = point density More Less Dense Dense
High
ozo
ne d
ays
18
>75 ppb
Ozone Sources to WI Lakeshore & Inland
HYSPLIT Analysis for 2011-2013
> 70 ppb
Colors = point density More Less Dense Dense
High
ozo
ne d
ays
19
>75 ppb
Ozone Sources to WI Lakeshore & Inland
HYSPLIT Analysis for 2011-2013 • Less Chicago/Lake
Michigan influence Colors = point density More Less Dense Dense
High
ozo
ne d
ays > 70 ppb
20
>75 ppb
Ozone Sources to WI Lakeshore & Inland > 70 ppb
60-75 ppb 60-70 ppb
High
ozo
ne d
ays
Mod
erat
e oz
one
days
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>75 ppb
Ozone Sources to WI Lakeshore & Inland > 70 ppb
60-75 ppb 60-70 ppb
Lower concentrations: Broader area implicated
High
ozo
ne d
ays
Mod
erat
e oz
one
days
22
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
'00-'02 '01-'03 '02-'04 '03-'05 '04-'06 '05-'07 '06-'08 '07-'09 '08-'10 '09-'11 '10-'12 '11-'13 '12-'14
Ozo
ne D
esig
n Va
lues
(ppb
)
Years
Lakeshore Counties2nd Tier CountiesCentral/Western CountiesFar Northern Counties
Trends in Ozone Design Values in WI
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LADCO Model Projections for 2018
From Alex Cohan @ LADCO
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LADCO Model Projections for 2018
Sheboygan is still nonattainment with 2008 standard
From Alex Cohan @ LADCO
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And a new standard is coming!
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And a new standard is coming!
DRAFT - 2014 data have not been QA’ed
Based on DRAFT 2012-2014 DVs
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And a new standard is coming!
Based on DRAFT 2012-2014 DVs
How do we manage this?
DRAFT - 2014 data have not been QA’ed
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Projects that would really help us (Developed with input from WDNR and LADCO)
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Projects that would really help us (Developed with input from WDNR and LADCO)
• Improved observations of VOC, NOx and meteororology • Including away from the lakeshore • Would help modelling and inventories
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Projects that would really help us (Developed with input from WDNR and LADCO)
• Improved observations of VOC, NOx and meteororology • Including away from the lakeshore • Would help modelling and inventories
• Verification of marine emissions on Lake Michigan • Use satellite data to track NOx plumes over the lake
• Sufficient resolution?
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Projects that would really help us (Developed with input from WDNR and LADCO)
• Improved observations of VOC, NOx and meteororology • Including away from the lakeshore • Would help modelling and inventories
• Verification of marine emissions on Lake Michigan • Use satellite data to track NOx plumes over the lake
• Sufficient resolution?
• Better constraints on lake breeze ozone impacts (and other ozone modeling issues) • LADCO will start this project – model sensitivity runs • Will likely produce areas for further study (field & satellite analyses)
32
Projects that would really help us (Developed with input from WDNR and LADCO)
• Improved observations of VOC, NOx and meteororology • Including away from the lakeshore • Would help modelling and inventories
• Verification of marine emissions on Lake Michigan • Use satellite data to track NOx plumes over the lake
• Sufficient resolution?
• Better constraints on lake breeze ozone impacts (and other ozone modeling issues) • LADCO will start this project – model sensitivity runs • Will likely produce areas for further study (field & satellite analyses)
• Better constraints on background ozone/boundary conditions • Sources? • LADCO is interested in the Tiger Team on reanalysis for AQ models • Implications for management?
