macro environmental factors of turkey (2)
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MACRO ENVIROMENTAL FACTORS INTURKEY
Ceyda Kocaman
Meltem Kamçı
Yağmur Erdinç
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Our Agenda...
Start
Economy
Demography Nature
Technology
Political End
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ECONOMY
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Turkish Economy
• Turkey is a centre of economic area between Europe, Sowiet Union and
Middle east.
• Turkish history deals with great crucial crises.
• Turkish economy tries to achive with macroeconomic policies and tools.
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Macroeconomic Aims
Increases Production
High and Ever growing GDP
Decreases Unemployment
High and sustainable employment
Inflatıon Adjustment
Provide general level of price
Balance Of Payment
Balance of trade and currentaccount and exchange rate
Macroeconomic Instruments
Fiscal Policy Instruments
Goverment Expenditure and Tax
Monetary Policy Supply
Interest rate anda Money
Income PolicyInstrument
International Economy Policy
Tarrif, Quata ,Exchange Rate
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Key Macro Economic Indicators
GDP ( Gross Domestic Product)
Two types of GDP
Nominal GDP : GDP evaluated at current market prices. Therefore,nominal GDP will include all of the changes in market prices that haveoccurred during the current year due to inflation or deflation.
Reel GDP : GDP evaluated at the market prices of some base year. Forexample, if 1990 were chosen as the base year, then real GDP for 1995 iscalculated by taking the quantities of all goods and services purchased in1995 and multiplying them by their 1990 prices.
GDP = C + I + G + X - M
According to this relationship ;
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• Two major crises since 1994, and the 2001
•After 2001, Turkey’s structral reform
• The global cris started to in 2008 and a sharply decrease in GDP from 4,7 to
0,7. Not only change in Turkey but also OECD.
• GDP growth decreases from 2008 to 2009 in Turkey and OECD
• Crisis did not affect as much as OECD.
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Trade Balance
• The difference between country’s import and export.
• Positive relationship between balance of trade and GDP.
•
Turkey’s export has increased tremendously over the past decade but it is notenough because also increas import rates.
• In 2009, export and import decreases because of global crisis.
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• Turkey’s export rate change under the OECD export changes
• Effect of global crisis on investment in Tukey and OECD.
• Investment increases with policies. For example, When the
Government decreases interest rate , investment ıncreases.
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Fiscal Policy How effect rate of GDP?
When goverment want to increase production level because of high and
ever-growing GDP , goverment decrease taxes or increase govermentexpenditure.
FDI ( Foreign Direct Investment )
•
The investment is direct because the investor, which could be aforeign person, company or group of entities, is seeking to control,
manage, or have significant influence over the foreign enterprise.
• Important positive effects on a host country’s development effort.
• Bring certain benefits to national economies.
• Help stimulate employment, raise wages and replace declining
market sectors.
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• FDI decreases from 2008 to 2009. FDI ıncreases from 2009 to 2010 in
Turkey but not increase in OECD and EU
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Unemployment Rate , Inflation and Exchange Rate
Unemployment is problem developed and developing countries.
Positive relationship economic growth and decreasing unemployment rate
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Inflation Rate
• Inflation may affect to employment.
• First measured by original Phillips Curve.
•Phillips found a consistent inverse relationship: when unemployment washigh, wages increased slowly; when unemployment was low, wages roserapidly.
• Macroeconomic models with sticky prices, positive relation between the rateof inflation and the level of demand, and a negative relation between the rateof inflation and the rate of unemployment.
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Inflation rate increases from 2009 to 2011 in Turkey also
employment rate increases from 2009 to 2010. In OECD, not
only inflation rate increases but also unemployment because
of global crisis.
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Exchange Rate and Employment
• A relatively depreciated currency encourages exports and expenditure
• Import competing firms faced by an appreciation of the home currency
face to lose their price competitiveness.
Turkey is more competitive than Euro Area because of depreciated
currency.
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Turkey’s economic sitiuation in 2010 according to OECD
• 16th largest economy in the world and 6th largest economycompared with EU countries in 2010 (GDP at PPP, IMF-WEO).
• Robust economic growth over the last seven years with anaverage annual real GDP growth of 4 percent.
• GDP reached USD 736 billion in 2010, up from USD 231 billionin 2002.
• Sound economic policies with tight fiscal discipline.
• Strong financial structure resilient to the global financial crisis.
•Rapid recovery from the global financial crisis.
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DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS
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Employment Rate of Women
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Employment rate of women % of female population (15-64)
Years Turkey OECD2003 25 55
2004 22 55
2005 22 56
2006 23 57
2007 23 57
2008 24 58
2009 24 57
2010 26 57
Increasing thepercentage of employment rate of women between2003-2010 years.
In OECD countries,womenemployment rateup to %50 andincreasing day by
day.
Some factors of Turkey’sacceleration;
•Education level of women
•Cultural changing•Modernization-giving uptraditional attitudes
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Why do women in Turkey work inactively?
• Not flexible working hours
• Not eligible encouragement of
• women working
• Not being at enough education level
• Having a traditional mentality, such as “woman-mother” contrast“business-woman”
• The roles ascribed to women in society
• Low level of supporting programs of women working
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Some other reasons...
• The participation rate of women of working inurban areas ( 19.8 %)
• In rural areas ( 32.6% ).
• In rural areas, women’s working illegally.
• Migration and growing agricultural sectorshrinking.
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Impact of education level at women working in Turkey
Women Working Rate inTurkey
illiterate people in the
labor force participation
rate
16.9%
Not graduated from high
school rate
21.8%
Graduated from high
school rate
30.4%
Educated from university
rate
69.7%
•The possibility of women working-
education level.
•Increasing possibility of entering this
market skills gained in the proportion
of women in the labor market demand
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Good Examples in OECD Countries
• Provide equal career opportunities for women and men
• Busy men previously worked as a professional and easy to enter or be taken to ensurewomen in business areas
• Improved child care and elder care facilities to ensure women's entry into the jobmarket more easily
• Especially in women after natal face with less problems about returning their jobsagain.
• Female labor force participation and labor market along with the integration of women
entrepreneurs
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Importance of women working...
The effectiveness and enhancing the quality of women's labor force,
Equipped with the knowledge and skillsappropriate to the needs of the labor market
Adaptation of the labor market are importantcompetitiveness of the economy, productionof quality goods and services.
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WORKING HOURS
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Average annual working time Hours per worker
Turkey OECD
2003 1943 1785
2004 1918 1783
2005 1936 1782
2006 1944 17792007 1911 1773
2008 1900 1767
2009 1881 1741
2010 1877 1749
•
The operating time of 45 hours higherthan when compared with OECD
countries.
•Rigidity of the labor market.
•Companies not tending to work new
employees. Trying to save thetendency to run longer hours than the
current workers.
•Taking the average working time in
Turkey to the world average, a
significant reduction in unemployment
•Less working hours, then more
motivated workers, and more
efficiency.
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CRIME RATE
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Prison population rate Number per 100 000 inhabitants
Turkey OECD
1992 54 100
1995 82 111
1998 102 119
2001 89 124
2004 100 133
2009 155 140
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Reasons of crime
• Income level
• Unemployment rate
• The rate of immigration, educationlevel
• Population density
• demographic factors such as birth rate, important factorsthat determine the rate of urbanization is a crimehas occurred.
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MARRIAGE RATE
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Proportion of respondents aged 15 and over by relationship status, 2010,
percentages
Turkey OECD
Married 66 55
Domestic partner 0 7
Single / Never been married 29 26
Widowed 3 6Divorced 1 4
Separated 1 1
•
The most common form of partnership across the OECD and also
in Turkey
Some reasons of why people generally
prefer marriage in Turkey;
CultureNeighborhood pressure
Ethical Rules
Legal Assurance
Having children
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Population Levels
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Population levels Thousands
•
Between 2008-2011, increasingpopulation level
•Some reasons of increasing of
population;
•Migration
Employment opportunities
Education opportunities etc.
•Birth rate
•Death rate
•Living conditions
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The most crowded cities...
• Istanbul (about 12.6 million),
•
Ankara (about 4.5 million)• Izmir (about 3.6 million).
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Birth Rate in Turkey, % 51 boys, %49 girls
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In Turkey, 2010, average age of mothers, 27.2
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In-migration, out-migration,by statistical region
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Life Satisfaction Survey
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Life Satisfaction Survey of Turkey
• Individuals in 2009, 54.3% of self-happy,
14.6% percent as the unhappy expression.
• In 2010, 61.2% of self-happy and 10.7%
percent as the unhappy expression.
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Happiness Levels in years
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Reasons of happiness...
• Being healthy ( 71.2%)
• Having a good family ( 70.9%)
• Being hopeful for future (72.8%) (women rate
72.9%, men rate 72.7%)
• Because of economical changes, in 2009
consuming cheap goods rate 60%, but in 2010
rate 54.2%.
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Some different types of results...
• Rate of women 62.7% in 2010 happy
• While the rate of men 59.6% happy.
•
Level of education-level of satisfactionprimary school education in 2010, rate of
60.5% while happiness, college or university
graduates, rate of 67.7%.
•Married in 2010, 63.7% of the individuals
happy, while the unmarried rate of 53.5%
happy.
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POLITICAL FACTORS
f
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General informations about political
systems of Turkey
• Election of the president by the TBMM for a
term of 7 years, while the members of the
Parliament are elected for a 5-year period
• The Republic of Turkey has a tripartite legal
system.
• Civilian and military jurisdiction is separated.
l f b l l
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General informations about political
systems of Turkey
• The main executive body is the Council of
Ministers, consisting of a Prime Minister and
twenty five ministers.
• Independent Courts have the judicial power.
• Turkey is a secular state.
•
The freedom of worship for all religions isprotected under the Constitutional Law.
Current political administration and
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Current political administration and
government structure
• The current President of the Republic of Turkey is Mr. Abdullah Gul who was elected inAugust 2007.
•The current Prime Minister is Mr. Recep TayyipErdogan who was re-appointed after thegeneral elections held in June 2010.
• He is the head of the Justice and DevelopmentParty (“AKP”) which has won nearly half of theParliamentary majority in June 2010 elections.
C i i T k ’ P li i l
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Current topics in Turkey’s Political
Environment
• Prohibition of smoking in closed areas
• Prohibition of sitting outside inpublic open
areas, such as Asmali Mescid
• Prohibition of consumption of fizzy can
beverages in schools.
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NATURE
UNAVOIDEBLE
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UNAVOIDEBLE
SUBJECT:SUSTAINABILTY
• Limited Sources
• Increased Population
• Heavy consumption and industrialization
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SUSTAINABILITY and GOING GREEN
• For consumers: Hybrid cars, compact
fluorescent bulbs, composting, reusable
shopping bags
• For businesses : eco-friendly strategies both to
lower costs and to benefit the environment
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SUSTAINABILITY and GOING GREEN
• For consumers: Hybrid cars, compact
fluorescent bulbs, composting, reusable
shopping bags
• For businesses : eco-friendly strategies both to
lower costs and to benefit the environment
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Contribution of renewables to energy supply* As a percentage of total primary energy supply
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WHY TURKEY’S PERCANTEGE IS HIGH?
RECYCLING PROJECTS AND
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RECYCLING PROJECTS AND
MUNICIPALITIES
• An associated project:Istanbul and Stockholm (Sweden)
Enviroment Congress in Stockholm
A week-long training
17 from Istanbul: Avcılar, Zeytinburnu, Kadıköy
• All over Turkey: Tarsus, Konyaaltı, Mamak..
Road infrastructure gross investment spending
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g p g
*Current prices and exchange rates - million Euros
92-00 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Turkey 45 50 48 86 125 169 331 270 338
OECD 970 1,229 1,300 1,386 1,260 1,264 1,255 1,342 1,595
Rail infrastructure gross investment spending*Current prices and exchange rates - million Euros
92-00 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Turkey 1,823 147 166 145 160 381 503 124 125
OECD 350 627 608 558 274 307 248 266 270
Airports infrastructure gross investment spending*Current prices and exchange rates - million Euros
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AIREMISSIONS OF PARTICULATES
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Mobile 10% 11% 11% 11% 12%
Road53% 54% 56% 57% 59%
Other 47% 46% 44% 43% 41%
Stationary 90% 89% 89% 89% 88%
Power st.12% 13% 14% 15% 16%
Combustion
61% 60% 58% 57% 55%
Ind Comb20% 20% 20% 19% 19%
Other Comb41% 40% 39% 37% 36%
Ind. proc.22% 23% 23% 23% 23%
Divers4% 5% 5% 5% 5%
Total100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
EMISSIONS OF CO
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Mobile51% 50% 49% 48% 46%
Road 99% 99% 99% 99% 98%
Other 1% 1% 1% 1% 2%
Stationary49% 50% 51% 52% 54%
Power st. 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Combustion 77% 77% 76% 76% 75%
Industrial3% 3% 3% 4% 4%
Other 74% 74% 73% 73% 71%
Ind. proc. 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Divers 22% 21% 22% 22% 24%
Total100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
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TECHNOLOGY
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E- Government
• Turkey December, 2008
• First and best user: Singapore,1997 (Role Model for other countries)
• First steps from Singapore 1981
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Comparison
E-goverment
• Active Citizen
• E- communication
• Auto Voice-mail
• Auto data updates
• Private service
Classical Goverment
• Passive Citizen
• Paper-based
communication• More labor force
• Standart service
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A new subject for Turkey: E-Bills
• Completed Infrastructure Projects
• State agencies and privately helds
Ex: Ministry of finance, Turkcell
• Turk Telekom’ s paper saving: 4200 tones per
year
Gross domestic expenditure on R&D
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Gross domestic expenditure on R&D
* As a percentage of GDP
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
2008 or latest available year 1999 or first available year
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Turkey 0.48 0.52 0.59 0.58 0.72 0.73 0.85
OECD 2.21 2.18 2.21 2.24 2.28 2.34 2.41
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Brain Drain
• Migration of the highly skilled from poor to
rich countries
• In parts of sub-Saharan Africa and Central
America, more than %50 university
graduates OECD countries
• Threatens development
Brain Drain
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Brain Drain* Share of a country's nationals with a university degree
living in an(other) OECD country
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SOCIAL MEDIA
• World: More than 800 million active users
• Turkey: 30,5 million
#5 in the ranking
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