lse forum september 2013 - meetupfiles.meetup.com/2243521/lse ipo forum slides 17-09-13 part 2 of...
TRANSCRIPT
LSE Forum September 2013
Agenda
• Countrywide – our business
• The UK residential property market
• IPO
• why IPO
• our approach
• challenges
• why did it work for us
• what would we have done differently
• Life as a public company
• Post IPO
63
A Complete Residential Property Service
77 branches in the UK offering an integrated agency and lettings proposition
1. Countrywide Business Today
64
LettingsEstate Agency
c. 10% of the UK mortgage intermediary market
Distributed c. £7bn of mortgages in 2012
Surveying
Conveyancingservices and legal advices
Completed c. 60,000 conveyancingtransactions in 2012
A leading UK provider of residential valuations and surveys
Accounts for c. 30% of all residential mortgage valuations in the UK
Financial Services Conveyancing
Largest UK Lettings Agency(3) – 370 branches (4)#1 in Estate Agency in the UK(1) – 931 branches (2)
Hamptons International
Notes: 2012 EBITDA contribution excluding “Others”(1) By revenues and transaction volumes, (2) Including Hamptons, (3) By revenues and branches, (4) December 2012 – including new starts
Full Service Proposition - Leadership Across the Value Chain
EA Generates Wider Revenues for Countrywide Through Provision of Complementary Services
Estate Agency
65
(1): Based on average product price and recorded leads.
Mortgages
Legal Services
Life Insurance
General Insurance
House Sale
58% 55%
57% 53%
2012 Complementary Services Volumes(1)
Financial Services
Lettings
Conveyancing
Surveying
2. UK Industry Overview
Transaction Volumes Average House Price (Halifax)
66
Land Registry Transaction Volumes (000’s)
Gap: 600,000+
Avg. 97-07: 1.3m
Indexed to 100
+5.8% CAGR
+7.3% CAGR
3. Why IPO?
• No real trade buyers
• Unlikely to see further PE deal
• IPO attractions:
� satisfied investor appetite
� liquidity for PE investors exit
� paid down expensive debt
� provided future sources of capital
67
Our Approach
• 12-18 month is for wimps
• Pressed go button - Xmas 2012
• Completed - March 2013
• Get ahead of the pack
• Manic adherence to timetable
• Control the process, eg Prospectus
68
Challenges
• IPO market effectively closed during 2012
• UK residential property market in 6 year slump - worse market ever
• Coming from PE arena – Andy Brough (Schroders)
• Reasonably aggressive timetable
69
Challenges
• Running the business alongside IPO
• Pressure on finance function
‘what is the biggest risk of failure’
• Managing PE investors
‘a little knowledge is a dangerous thing’
70
Challenges
• Fair allocation of workload
71
CEO CFO
Why Did It Work
• Investor engagement
• Compelling equity story
• Planning / Planning / Planning
• Delivery / Delivery / Delivery
• Be lucky
72
Investor Engagement
• We never stopped
• What are you selling?
• Listen to feedback
� come back early in cycle
� leave plenty on the table
� gearing / debt / dividends
• Create tension, eg US v UK
• Be honest on share sales
� PE
� managment
73
Investor Approach
• Circa 200 investors over 2 week roadshow
• Book covered x 2 after first day
• Ongoing price guidance to market
� original range £2.60 - £3.50
� narrowed to £3.05 - £3.50
� narrowed to £3.30 - £3.50
� covered 12 times at £3.50
� priced at the top of the range
• PE discount / IPO peer discount – no thanks
• Buy one get one free
74
Compelling Equity Story - Transformed Under Private Ownership
EBITDA Evolution (£m)
£1bn P2P
Recapitalisation
Business Transformation and Investment
Cost Reduction Across Our
Platform
Focus on Higher Quality
Revenue Streams
Sustained Investment in Future Growth
From a Collective Network of Estate Agencies Into a Consolidated And Cohesive Property Services Group
TransactionsVolumes (m)
0.72 0.69 0.73 0.72
Notes: (1) Not pro-forma for Hamptons acquisition.
~ 0.73
Management Transformation
1.38
75
(1)
Structural Cost Reduction Across Our Platform
Structural Cost Savings
Reduction in Total Group Cost Base Excluding Acquisitions (£m)
76
“Gone for Good” - £60m
“Up for Grabs” - £81m
“Will Come Back” - £60m
1
2
3
564
363
2006A 2012A
(1)
Note: (1) Excluding costs of £25m from the expansion of the lettings division and othercosts of £8m relating to new branch openings and establishing new business operations
CommissionsBonus
Closure of underperforming branchesRationalisation of non-customer facing functions
Simplified management structureCentralised procurement
Finance/IT consolidation and centralisationAdministrative savings
StaffAdvertising
Note: Structural costs savings based on management’sbeliefs.
49
96
2007A 2012A
Actively Capturing the Lettings Market Opportunity
UK Lettings Market Increased Contribution from Lettings
• The UK lettings market has surged through the recent downturn as home sales have slowed
• Countrywide has capitalised on its significant national footprint to capture leading market share in this segment
– Leading market share of 6-8% with 35,970 properties successfully let in 2012 (+29% vs. 2011)
Contribution from Lettings (£m)UK Private Rented Sector Homes (m)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Source: ONS.Note: Contribution from Lettings chart excludes Hamptons and Others.
Total Revenue EBITDA
% of TotalRevenues: 8% 21% 9% 35%
77
% of TotalEBITDA:
Market Share Gains
Investment in distribution
Notes: (1) Including Hamptons.
(2) No clear measure of our addressable market due to social housing renters and private renters not using a broker.
(3) 5.6% of total market / 10% of intermediary market as at Q3 2012.
6.9%8.3%
2007 2012
Estate Agency Lettings
Surveying Mortgages
27.2%32.4%
2007 2012
6.0-8.0% Recurring revenue stream as lettings branches
mature
Full contribution from
recent investments (e.g. Hamptons)
New initiatives driving
incremental revenue – Land & New Homes
(L&NH), corporate contracts, online
Flow-through from housing market transaction
volumes
1
2
3
4
5
Based on transaction volumes
The Countrywide Story Today
78
Track Record of Successful Acquisitions
Recent Expansion
Recently opened3 new branches
Acquired in 2010
Acquired in 2010
Acquired in 2011
Contribution from Acquisitions
Hamptons Acquisition
• Acquired in June 2010
• Significant realisation of synergy benefits
• 2012 EBITDA: £14m
• Year one ROI >19%
Lettings Acquisitions
• 41 acquisitions since July 2007
• Relentless execution following acquisition
• Targeting ROI >25% post synergies (usually year 1)
79
Pure-play in any UK Residential Property Recovery
Ongoing transformation and proactive period of investment by experienced management team while in private ownership
Capitalising on market leading positions across all our core businesses
Quality full service proposition creating continuous customer relationships with retail and corporate clients while maximising value from each transaction
A scalable, diversified and risk-mitigated business with significant recurring revenue streams capitalising on our integrated service and product offering
Track record of investing in growth and creation of value in the current market and building a scalable platform for future growth
1
2
4
5
3
80
Planning
• Act like a plc
• Structure / functions remained in place
�audit committee
�risk management
�internal audit function
�financial disciplines
�forecasting / reporting
• Pre-IPO checklist (red / amber /green)
81
Delivery
• Timetable not negotiable
• First results post IPO
� revenue up 4%
� operating profit up 47%
� progress across entire group
• Control the process
� the banks
� the lawyers
� the reporting accountants
82
Be Lucky
• Stock market
• General UK economy
• Government initiatives
83
Looking Back
• One too many banks
• Company’s lawyers v. banks lawyers
• Appreciate scale of reporting accountants work
• The hell of due diligence
‘Can you prove it’
84
Plc v. Private
• Investor demands
• PE v. Institutional investors
• Non-exec directors have changed
• Operation of the board
85
Post IPO
• Priced at £3.50
• End of day 1 £3.97 (+ 13%)
• Highest level £6.13 (+ 75%)
• Now £5.50 (+ 57%)
• First PE sell down completed
• It’s worked pretty well – so far
86
∙ to price at top of the range since 2008
∙ sponsor owned IPO since 2011
∙ real estate IPO since 20111st
The accountant’s roleon an IPO
Chris Searle
BDO LLP | September 2013
88
Introduction
• Chris Searle
– Partner in the capital markets team in BDO’s London office
– specialises in IPOs and due diligence
• BDO’s role in an IPO – the reporting accountant
• BDO is leading reporting accountant for AIM IPOs – almost 200 in last ten years
89
The accountant’s role on an IPO
• We undertake a significant amount of financial due diligence – broadly similar for AIM and
the Main Market
• Four main areas of work:
– long form report
– working capital report
– financial position and prospects review
– short form report
• Exact scope of our work set by the nomad/sponsor
90
Long form report
• Private report addressed to the Company and the nomad/sponsor
• Detailed financial due diligence review covering the company’s business and markets,
historical trading results, balance sheets and cash flows for up to the last three years,
management information and control systems, and taxation
• Gives the nomad/sponsor an overall picture of the business and explains trends in its
accounts
• Scope agreed with the nomad/sponsor
• It takes two to four weeks of field work at the company
• Analysis of information and interviews with management team
• More time drafting in our office
• Draft report to management for comment
• Draft report to nomad/sponsor and then meeting to discuss
91
Working capital report
• Private report addressed to the company and the nomad/sponsor
• A review of the company’s forecasts for up to 18 months post IPO, with a focus on cash
• Supports the directors’ working capital statement in the admission document/prospectus
that the company will not run out of money in the year after the IPO
• Company prepares a detailed financial model – should be flexible, integrated, monthly
phased
• We review the model to ensure there are no errors
• We review the accuracy of company’s past budgets and the directors’ income, cost and cash
flow assumptions
• Appropriate sensitivities are run
• Report drafted and discussed with company and nomad/sponsor
92
Financial position and prospects review
• The company must have systems and controls appropriate for a public company
• The reporting accountant has to provide a comfort letter on this
• We review the company’s systems and controls either via a board memorandum written by
the company or via a due diligence report written by us
• Any deficiencies should be fixed before the IPO completes or on an agreed timetable
thereafter
93
Short form report
• Public report addressed to the company and the nomad/sponsor that is included in the
admission document/prospectus
• Comprises a report on the company’s last three years’ (or period from incorporation if
shorter) financial statements – in IFRS
• Must be based on audited financial statements
• Therefore an audit may have to be undertaken as part of the IPO process
• IFRS conversion may also be needed
• For Main Market, last audited balance sheet cannot be more than six months old at time of
IPO
• For AIM, last audited balance sheet cannot be more than nine months old at time of IPO
94
Tips for a smooth and successful process
• It’s never too early to start planning – consider an IPO readiness review a year or two ahead
• Set a realistic timetable – don’t think you can complete an IPO in 6 to 8 weeks
• Make internal resource available for the IPO process
• If audit(s) needed, make sure adequate time is allowed in the timetable, preferably before
the reporting accountant team starts
• A new plc might be needed – may be complicated if you have many shareholders
• Don’t change the working capital projections after we have started work
• Have a Plan B for the amount of the fund raising – what if proceeds are lower?
• Don’t inadvertently make a profit forecast
• Most importantly, don’t underestimate the onerous and time consuming nature of the
process
• Maintain positive trading performance during the process
96
The proposal contained in this document is made by BDO LLP ("BDO") and is in all respects subject to the
negotiation, agreement and signing of a specific contract. It contains information that is commercially
sensitive to BDO, which is being disclosed to you in confidence and is not to be disclosed to any third party
without the written consent of BDO. Client names and statistics quoted in this proposal include clients of BDO
and BDO International.
BDO LLP is a corporate establishment under the Limited Liability Partnership Act 2000 and a UK Member Firm
of BDO International. BDO Northern Ireland, a separate partnership, operates under a licence agreement.
BDO LLP and BDO Northern Ireland are both separately authorised and regulated by the Financial Services
Authority to conduct investment business.
Copyright ©2013 BDO. All rights reserved.
www.bdo.co.uk
Communication
requirements
for successful IPOs
David Rydell, Partner, Bell Pottinger LLP
17 September 2013
|98 |98
About us
Bell Pottinger Pelham, the financial and corporate division of Bell Pottinger LLP, is one of the UK’s top three corporate communications consultancies
Established 30 years, advised on £117bn of transactions in 2012, 150 + clients, 230 Public Relations professionals
Experts in corporate positioning, reputation management, financial calendar, analyst/media/investor relations, IPOs, M&A transactions, crisis and restructuring and corporate social responsibility
Solid track record in delivering successful FPR – FTSE 100 to small cap and AIM. More than 150 IPO’s FTSE to AIM
Specialist in ambitious small and medium cap growing businesses
Ranked No 1 PR adviser in a variety of sectors
Clients across all sectors include world class brands, all sizes from FTSE 100 to AIM listed, private companies, state owned companies, internationally quoted businesses and sovereign wealth funds
|99 |99
The application of financial PR
Industry analysts
Improved profileIncrease demand for
sharesSupport for share
price
Employees
Business associates
Regulatory authorities
shareholders & potential shareholders (retail /
institutional)PLC Client
sell side analysts
media
�
�
�
�
|100 |100
Successful IPO Communications
Being public – allows you to raise new money, get a real value on your equity, raise the company’s profile and allows you to raise £ later
IPO not a given: It is about sound businesses, not just speed to marketStrong institutional selectivity, competition for share of voiceBeware of media cynicism – it does not take much to tip an IPO off-balance
You need to create the strongest investment case to realise best value and profileThe question will be why invest in the company? Clear strategy and strong business modelQuality of management teamAttractive market opportunity Robust financial structure and good corporate governance
Generate clear understanding of the business and your marketHow you operate in your marketWhy you are different/successful - life is crowded
Create and maintain positive relationships with key influencers/commentators:MediaSell-side analystsInvestors – institutional and retail
Thereby underpinning initial valuation and after market share price
Allows you to flush out prospective acquisitions and attract and retain quality/talented staff
Good advisors essentialSponsor; brokers; legal, registrars, investor relations and financial PR
|101 |101
Intention to Float
• Sign off on intention to float story
• Issue media release
• Finalise presentation
• Identify photo opportunity
• Arrange media meetings as appropriate
• Review coverage
• Investor marketing
• Begin analyst recruitment
Prospectus
• Commence marketing
• Issue media release
• Prepare Q&A
• Prepare advert, if required
• Media meetings
• Utilise analyst note
• Review coverage
Impact Day
• Issue media release
• News story on valuation
• Full prospectus distributed
• Arrange for share price listing
1st Day Dealings
• Contact all market reporters
• Monitor share price, brokers’ notes, etc.
• Evaluation
The tasks ahead – IPO project
Good News Programme
|102 |102
Important third party endorsement – influences investor/media sentiment
Your analyst followers are stockbrokers first and foremost –not industry observers
Special relationship with the CFO
Model fine-tuning every 2-3 months
Manage expectations as closely as possible
Requirements
Disclosure - detail and depth
No surprises
Strategy and tactics
Trading updates and results presentations – every time
Keep updated on news flow
Show off your Board and line management
Analysts are key media influencers
Analyst relations – developing the sell side
|103 |103
Taking prospectus numbers, as far as possible, to the operational level
Ensure the analysts understand the key drivers
Revenue
Margin
Costs and charges
Cash flows
Post-IPO
Manage the consensus range against internal forecasts
Building the model, developing consensus
|104 |104
Develop and deliver a clear and compelling investment case
Attractions of the sector
Attractions of the company
Clear strategy and solid business model
Strong management team and Board
Consistent evidence of delivery against strategy
Post IPO – On-going pro-active IR programme
On-going marketing to build investor appetite and understanding
Event driven announcements
Targeted road shows
Investor seminars / site visits
IR website
Obtain and listen to investor feedback
Investor relations – developing the buy side
|105 |105
Media: a powerful tool, an arm of your equity marketing
Can make or break an IPO
Create the story – be flexible and manage news flow in a strategic manner
It is about the right journalists
Differentiate between reporters and commentators
Look outside the mainstream to build momentum – share tips/market
columns/diary columns/entrepreneurial profiles
Build relationships - regular meetings and conversations
Commenting on industry/market issues
Regional media is important
Use creative photography
Numbers and personalities (in a controlled fashion)
Value-add key trade media
International media where appropriate
Use London as your hub to reach the world
Creative issues opportunism – R4 Today to FT supplements
Media relations – know your audience
|106 |106
Case Study – CentralNic
Supported the development of marketing materials and IRwebsite during the build-up to the Company’s institutional roadshow and IPO
Input into prospectus
Management presentation training and development of keymessaging
ITF exclusive with the Daily Telegraph, focusing on theCompany’s decision to choose AIM over a NASDAQ listing
Thorough media engagement on pricing and first day ofdealings achieving broad coverage in the national media market reports and retail investor media
Shares experienced good demand throughout the first weeks oftrading – up c. 30 per cent on listing
|107 |107
IPO will need to be carefully explained and placed in the context of the future trajectory of the business:
Why do it? How will it affect me? What will we need to do differently?
Crucial that executives speak with single voice, and build trust and support of middle-management to spread the message more widely
Especially valuable for multi-location and multicultural workforce, customer and suppliers
Communicate internally in parallel with your external statements
Work closely with existing internal communications team to develop campaign plan: messaging, timing, channels, creative, content, production
Intranet is a powerful tool – webcasting, podcasting etc.
Face-to-face briefings are key: team briefings to address questions and concerns, possibly consider larger ‘set-piece’ events. Target key customers and suppliers – not a get rich quickly story
Materials prepared for IPO (e.g. promotional film, literature etc.) can be repackaged into employee and external audience pack
Employee communications
Critical element of the project to keep employees on board, particularly given recent restructuring post-IPO
|108 |108
Introduce ‘investor’ section: news and events, financial results and reports, share price, corporate responsibility and governance etc. Go beyond basic requirements.
Consider brand and tone of voice across all aspects of the site:
Transparent
Comprehensive
Responsible
Grown-up
Commercial / value-generating
Service-driven
Consider extent / phasing of changes – short-term tweaks, medium-term fundamentals
May also want to review brand architecture – e.g. ‘group’ site linking in to portfolio brands
Building a PLC website
|109 |109
An IPO can transform your business
Access to equity capital, now and in the future
Significant platform to enhance status of the company
Opportunity to strengthen your board
Brings wider media interest
Interaction with equity analysts and investors
Delivers real visible valuation of the business (or at least the market’s view)
Every day is an opportunity
Summary
|110 |110
Contact
David RydellPartnerBell Pottinger Pelham
Holborn Gate330 High HolbornLondonWC1V 7QD
D:(020) 7861 3886M: 07798 646021
London Stock Exchange IPO Forum:
View from an Institutional Fund Manager
17 September 2013
Kayvan Vahid
Senior Portfolio Manager
For professional clients only
112
Source: UBS Research Focus 2006
Kayvan Vahid
• Pan European small and mid cap fund manager
• Team manages EUR 1.5 bn assets
• Flexible investment style proven over different market cycles
• Bottom-up stock picking process with core/satellite approach
• Universe of c. 3000 stocks of which we need a portfolio of 60 – 80 stocks, i.e. we are highly selective
Introduction
113113113
Why would we participate in an IPO?
Opportunity to gain exposure to:
• Valuation is key: IPO discount to reflect shorter track record.
• Confidence in the management team
• Re-rating potential as company establishes itself over time
• Winning business model
• Structural growth
• Competitive advantage with high returns and sustainable barriers to entry
• Self financed expansion stories
Compelling valuation opportunity
A rare ‘Core’ holding
114
IPO success factors
Win-win approach
• Clarity of strategy
• Incentivisation
• Corporate governance
• IPO discount
• Early indication
• Conservative forecasts
• Establishing trust
• Market environment
• IPO appetite
Win-Winapproach
115
IPO Process
• Pilotfishing
• Site visit
• Investor education
• NetRoadshow
• IPO Roadshow
• Management accessibility
116
Required Information
• Rationale for the deal (investor exit, use of IPO proceeds)
• Lock-up period, management participation
• History of company and how the strategy has evolved
• Relevant peer group (for valuation comparison)
• Detailed historic financials
117
• Full understanding of the business model and Industry background
• Financing profile of the business
• Risk factors (sensitivities)
• Key catalysts
• Forecast justification
Required Information
118
Summary
• Start early and get plenty of investor exposure
• Clarity about the 3 – 4 key drivers of the investment thesis and support with as much data as possible
• Gain the trust of the investment community with transparency and conservative management of expectations
• Be realistic on valuation
• Contact details: [email protected] 0207 901 5918
119
Kayvan Vahid, CFA
Senior Portfolio Manager
Executive Director
• Kayvan Vahid is a member of the Specialist Equities Team and is based in London. Kayvan is responsible for managing of a number of Pan European Small and Mid Cap mandates.
• Kayvan joined UBS Global Asset Management in 2000. He spent his first four years as an Equity Analyst within the Pan-European Equity Research team. He was responsible for the analysis and valuation of companies within the European Healthcare sector, which included mid-cap pharmaceutical, biotech, medical technology and distribution companies.
• Kayvan is a Regular Member of the CFA Society of the UK and the CFA Institute.
Years of relevant industry experience: 13
Education: University of Nottingham, BSc (Hons)
120120
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is destroyed as soon as it is no longer required.
Commerce reinvented
blur Group has the potential to
be a billion dollar tech company by 2020
blur vision
This is s-commerce. Today nearly 35,000 businesses
in 141 countries use blur Group’s
s-commerce platform with over 100
new projects and 1,000 new businesses
arriving each month.Commerce Reinvented
“As Amazon and eBay have
fundamentally changed the way in
which consumers buy day-to-day
products, blur Group is seeking to
fundamentally alter the way
businesses buy core services.”
122
First mover advantage
Global Reach blur 3.0 platform Scalability
123
Automates s-commerce
process
Business and project
size
Exchange user to
adopter
30,000+
businesses
141 countries
4
Advisor beauty parades
Appointments
Pre-marketing round of meetings
Marketing
2012
March/April May July August 5 October
Admissionto AIM
2013
Investor roadshows
Secondary fundraise
January - May 31 May
$6.5m raised Share price
doubles
$11.5m raised
blur IPO path
3
IPO vs VC
Founded in
2005 by CEO
Philip Letts
Pre IPO: 3 rounds of Angel funding
Selected AIM IPO to
provide funding for
the next stage of growth
Secondary fundraise
Access to long-term investors supporting the management’s
vision – not growing the
business for an exit
Raises the profile of
the company
Do’s & Don’ts• Pre-marketing extremely
useful
• Early alignment of key
shareholders’ valuation
expectations
• Getting the right team in
place
• Identification of key
personnel to ‘own’ the
process
• Preparation is key –
investor Q&A, due
diligence documentation,
audit, etc.
• Don’t try to ‘hide’
anything – due diligence
uncovers everything!
• Don’t underestimate the
demands of the process
on your time
• Don’t expect the business
to be the same afterwards
...
• Only the beginning!
5
blur performance
127
Growth vision
128
Directors’ belief based on market opportunities and growth to date