hzl 2 qfy2011 result update - 201010
TRANSCRIPT
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1
Particulars (` cr)
2QFY2011 2QFY2010 % chg (yoy)
1QFY2010 % chg (qoq)
Net sales 2,163 1,790 20.9 1,951 10.9
EBITDA 1,125 1,075 4.6 1,022 10.1
EBITDA margin (%) 52.0 60.1 (807bp) 52.4 (35bp)
Net profit 949 935 1.5 891 6.5
Source: Company, Angel Research
Hindustan Zinc (HZL) reported net revenue of `2,163cr in 2QFY2011, marginally higher-than-our-estimate of `2,049cr. However, net profit at `949cr was in line with our estimate of `966cr.
Strong top line: Net revenue grew by 20.9% yoy and 10.9% qoq to `2,163cr. Sales volume for zinc, lead and silver grew by 24.4%, 27.0% and 25.8% yoy, respectively, to 175,309 tonnes, 14,458 tonnes and 36,879 kg. Average realisation for zinc, lead and silver grew by 16.1%, 10.0% and 35.6% yoy, respectively, to US$2,238/tonne, US$2,338/tonne and US$656/kg, respectively. The new 210ktpa zinc smelter contributed ~39,000 tonnes to production.
Lower EBITDA margins and higher depreciation lead to lower net income growth: EBITDA margins declined by 807bp yoy to 52.0%, although flat on a qoq basis. The decline was mainly due to a) higher stripping costs at mines, resulting in a 29.7% yoy increase in mining expenses, b) 90% yoy increase in stores and spares cost and c) 46.8% yoy increase in power costs on account of higher coal cost. Consequently, EBITDA grew by 4.6% yoy to `1,125cr. During the quarter, other income increased by 19.7% yoy to `184cr and depreciation expense increased by 50.2% to `116cr. Consequently, net income grew by only 1.5% yoy to `949cr.
Outlook and valuation: At the CMP of `1,227, the stock is trading at 7.7x FY2011E and 5.2x FY2012E EV/EBITDA. HZL is expected to benefit from the expansion of zinc-lead smelting capacity and increased silver production. Further, HZL had a huge cash balance of `12,213cr at the end of the quarter (`289 per share). We recommend Accumulate on the stock with a revised Target Price of `1,342 (earlier `1,227), valuing the stock at 6.0x FY2012E EV/EBITDA.
Key Financials
Y/E March (` cr) FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E
Net sales 5,680 8,017 8,996 11,073
% chg (27.9) 41.1 12.2 23.1
Net profit 2,728 4,041 4,108 5,223
% chg (38.0) 48.2 1.6 27.2
EPS (`) 64.6 95.6 97.2 123.6
EBITDA margin (%) 48.1 58.3 53.6 55.1
P/E (x) 19.0 12.8 12.6 9.9
P/BV (x) 3.6 2.9 2.4 1.9
RoE (%) 20.8 24.9 20.5 21.4
RoCE (%) 18.0 25.6 20.9 22.1
EV/Sales (x) 7.4 5.0 4.1 2.9
EV/EBITDA (x) 15.4 8.6 7.7 5.2 Source: Company, Angel Research
ACCUMULATE CMP `1,227 Target Price ` 1,342
Investment Period 12 months Stock Info Sector Base Metal
Market Cap (` cr) 51,844
Beta 1.3
52 Week High / Low 1,384/845
Avg. Daily Volume 15,799
Face Value (`) 10
BSE Sensex 19,872
Nifty 5,982
Reuters Code HZNC.BO
Bloomberg Code HZ@IN
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters 64.9
MF / Banks / Indian Fls 31.4
FII / NRIs / OCBs 1.7
Indian Public / Others 2.0
Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr
Sensex 11.7 16.9 5.8
Hindustan Zinc 27.2 42.0 14.2
Paresh Jain Tel: 022-40403800 Ext: 348
Pooja Jain Tel: 022-40403800 Ext: 311
Hindustan Zinc Performance Highlights
2QFY2011 Result Update | Base Metals
October 20, 2010
Hindustan Zinc |2QFY2011 Result Update
October 20, 2010 2
Exhibit 1: 2QFY2011 performance
(` cr) 2QFY11 2QFY10 yoy % 1HFY11 1HFY10 yoy %
Net sales 2,163 1,790 20.9 4,114 3,302 24.6 Mining & manufacturing exp. 714 439 62.6 1,284 939 36.7
% of net sales 33.0 24.5
31.2 28.4
Mining royalty 178 139 28.3 333 231 44.4
% of net sales 8.2 7.7
8.1 7.0
Staff cost 115 104 11.4 264 184 43.1
% of net sales 5.3 5.8
6.4 5.6
Admin and selling 69 61 11.8 147 133 10.2
% of net sales 3.2 3.4
3.6 4.0
Total expenditure 1,076 743 44.8 2,027 1,487 36.3
% of net sales 49.7 41.5
49.3 45.0
EBIDTA 1,125 1,075 4.6 2,147 1,858 15.6
% of net sales 52.0 60.1
52.2 56.3
Interest (1) 5
6 9 (29.6)
Depreciation 116 77 50.2 228 152 50.2
Other income 184 154 19.7 342 334 2.6
Exceptional items (21) 0
(21) 0
Profit before tax 1,173 1,147 2.3 2,234 2,031 10.0
% of net sales 54.2 64.1
54.3 61.5
Provision for tax 224 212 5.8 395 377 4.5
% of PBT 19.1 18.5
17.7 18.6
Profit after tax 949 935 1.5 1,840 1,654 11.2
% of net sales 43.9 52.2
44.7 50.1
EPS (`) 22.5 22.1 1.5 43.5 39.1 11.2
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2QFY2011 - Actual v/s Angel estimates (` cr) Actual Estimates chg (%)
Net sales 2,163 2,049 5.6
EBITDA 1,125 1,111 1.3
EBITDA margin (%) 52.0 54.2 (219bp)
PBT 1,173 1,150 2.0
PAT 949 966 (1.8)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Top-line growth on the back of higher volumes and prices
During 2QFY2011, HZL’s mined zinc production was higher by 6.4% yoy and 12.6% qoq to 204,836 tonnes, as water shortage that affected its production in 1QFY2011 was absent and the new smelter is ramping up gradually. Zinc metal sales volume grew by 24.4% yoy and 2.7% qoq to 175,309 tonnes on account of the commissioning of the 210ktpa zinc smelter at Rajpura Dariba in 4QFY2010, which produced ~39,000 tonnes in 2QFY2011. Lead metal sales volume increased by 27.0% yoy and 2.7% qoq to 14,458 tonnes during 2QFY2011.
Hindustan Zinc |2QFY2011 Result Update
October 20, 2010 3
Exhibit 3: Zinc metal sales volume at an all-time high
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 4: Lead metal sales surged 27.0% yoy
Source: Company, Angel Research
During the quarter, zinc and lead realisations increased by 16.1% yoy to US $2,238/tonne and by 10.0% yoy to US $2,338/tonne, respectively. In addition, saleable silver production increased by 17.0% yoy to 35,341kg (30,324 kg), while sales increased by 25.8% yoy to 36,879kg (29,326kg). Average silver realisation increased by 35.6% yoy to US $653/kg (US $482/kg). Thus, net revenue increased by 20.9% to `2,163cr.
Operating performance remains muted
EBITDA grew by 4.6% yoy to `1,125cr as margins dipped by 807bp yoy to 52.0% (lower than our estimate of 54.2%) on account of a) higher stripping costs at mines resulting in a 29.7% yoy increase in mining expenses to `206cr, b) 90% yoy increase in stores and spares cost to `227cr and c) 46.8% yoy increase in power costs to `260cr on account of higher coal cost. Despite other income increasing by 19.7% yoy to `184cr, net profit grew by only 1.5% yoy to `949cr on account of higher depreciation expense, which increased by 50.2% to `116cr.
Exhibit 5: EBITDA margins dip by 807bp yoy
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 6: PAT growth muted on higher depreciation
Source: Company, Angel Research
Expansion projects
The 100ktpa lead smelter at Rajpura Dariba is delayed by a quarter and is
expected to be commissioned by 3QFY2011E.
The Sindesar Khurd mine project is also delayed by a quarter and production
is expected to commence from 3QFY2011E.
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Hindustan Zinc |2QFY2011 Result Update
October 20, 2010 4
Outlook
Zinc – Metal surplus to decline in CY2011
As per ILZSG, global zinc usage is expected to grow by 13.1% and 6.3% to 12.3mn tonnes and 13.07mn tonnes in CY2010 and CY2011, respectively. Refined zinc production is expected to grow by 10.9% and 5.6% to 12.53mn tonnes and 13.23mn tonnes in CY2010 and CY2011, respectively. Hence, global zinc metal supply is likely to remain in surplus by 233,000 tonnes and 161,000 tonnes in CY2010E and CY2011E, respectively.
Exhibit 7: Zinc prices and inventory
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Lead – Metal surplus at 90,000 tonnes
As per ILZSG, lead metal is expected to remain in surplus by 90,000 tonnes in CY2010E and CY2011E. Global lead usage is expected to grow by 4.5% yoy and 5.8% yoy to 9.02mn tonnes and 9.55mn tonnes in CY201E and CY2011E, respectively. However, supply is also expected to grow by 4.5% yoy and 5.8% yoy to 9.11mn tonnes and 9.64mn tonnes, respectively.
Exhibit 8: Lead prices and inventory levels
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
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Hindustan Zinc |2QFY2011 Result Update
October 20, 2010 5
Valuation
At the CMP of `1,227, the stock is trading at 7.7x FY2011E and 5.2x FY2012E EV/EBITDA. HZL is expected to benefit from the expansion of zinc-lead smelting capacity and increased silver production. Further, HZL had a huge cash balance of `12,213cr at the end of the quarter (`289 per share). We recommend Accumulate on the stock with a revised Target Price of `1,342 (earlier `1,227), valuing the stock at 6.0x FY12012E EV/EBITDA.
Exhibit 9: Key assumptions
Earlier Revised
LME prices (US $/tonne) FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E
Zinc 1,975 2,050 2,100 2,150
Lead 1,925 2,000 2,100 2,150
Silver (`/kg) 25,500 25,500 28,750 28,500
Sales volume (tonnes) Zinc metal 682,100 747,150 708,720 791,100
Lead metal 80,100 125,450 80,100 125,450
Silver 180,000 270,000 180,000 270,000
Source: Angel Research
We have revised our FY2011E and FY2012E estimates to factor in increased zinc and lead prices and higher zinc volumes. However, our EBITDA margins are lowered on account of higher power, fuel and stripping costs.
Exhibit 10: Change in estimates
(` cr) Earlier estimates Revised estimates Upgrade/(downgrade) (%)
FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E
Net sales 8,515 10,559 8,996 11,073 5.6 4.9
EBITDA 4,787 6,160 4,825 6,104 0.8 (0.9)
EBITDA margin (%) 56.2 58.3 53.6 55.1 (258bp) (321bp)
PBT 5,097 6,585 5,135 6,529 0.7 (0.8)
Net income 4,077 5,268 4,108 5,223 0.7 (0.8)
Net margin (%) 47.9 49.9 45.7 47.2 (222bp) (272bp)
Diluted EPS (`) 96.5 124.7 97.2 123.6 0.7 (0.8)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 11: EPS - Angel forecast vs. consensus Year (%) Angel forecast Bloomberg consensus Variation (%)
FY2011E 97.2 106.8 (8.9)
FY2012E 123.6 126.5 (2.3)
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Hindustan Zinc |2QFY2011 Result Update
October 20, 2010 6
Exhibit 12: EV/EBITDA band
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 13: P/E band
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 14: P/BV band
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
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Hindustan Zinc |2QFY2011 Result Update
October 20, 2010 7
Exhibit 15: Recommendation summary
Company CMP Target
Price Reco. Mcap Upside P/E (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%)
(`) (`)
(` cr) (%) FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E
Hindalco 203 - Neutral 38,847 - 10.7 10.0 1.5 1.3 7.0 6.5 15.1 14.2 10.3 10.0
Nalco 399 316 Sell 25,708 (20.8) 25.2 21.4 2.4 2.2 14.5 11.3 9.7 10.7 10.7 12.5
Sterlite 171 196 Accumulate 57,456 14.6 12.0 8.7 1.3 1.2 6.3 4.3 11.6 14.2 11.1 14.1 Hindustan Zinc 1,227 1,342 Accumulate 51,845 9.4 12.6 9.9 2.4 1.9 7.7 5.2 20.5 21.4 20.9 22.1
Source: Company, Angel Research
Hindustan Zinc |2QFY2011 Result Update
October 20, 2010 8
Profit & Loss Statement Y/E March (` cr) FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E
Gross sales 9,220 8,737 6,141 8,438 9,778 12,036
Less: Excise duty 660 859 461 421 782 963
Net sales 8,560 7,878 5,680 8,017 8,996 11,073
Other operating income Total operating income 8,560 7,878 5,680 8,017 8,996 11,073
% chg 120.8 (8.0) (27.9) 41.1 12.2 23.1
Total expenditure 2,153 2,499 2,946 3,347 4,170 4,969
Net raw materials 984 1,352 1,906 1,961 2,484 2,956
Other Mfg. costs 644 511 364 613 788 979
Personnel 260 308 365 457 561 638
Other 266 328 311 316 337 396
EBITDA 6,407 5,378 2,734 4,670 4,825 6,104
% chg 178.6 (16.1) (49.2) 70.8 3.3 26.5
(% of Net sales) 74.8 68.3 48.1 58.3 53.6 55.1
Depreciation 156 221 285 334 479 545
EBIT 6,251 5,158 2,449 4,336 4,346 5,559
% chg 189.2 (17.5) (52.5) 77.1 0.2 27.9
(% of Net sales) 73.0 65.5 43.1 54.1 48.3 50.2
Interest & other charges 28 24 22 44 38 40
Other income 231 852 931 722 826 1,010
(% of PBT) 3.6 14.2 27.7 14.4 16.1 15.5 Share in profit of associates - - - - - -
Recurring PBT 6,454 5,985 3,358 5,014 5,135 6,529
% chg 189.5 (7.3) (43.9) 49.3 2.4 27.2 Extraordinary inc/(expense) - - - - - -
PBT (reported) 6,454 5,985 3,358 5,014 5,135 6,529
Tax 2,012 1,589 631 973 1,027 1,306
(% of PBT) 31.2 26.6 18.8 19.4 20.0 20.0
PAT (reported) 4,442 4,396 2,728 4,041 4,108 5,223 Add: Share of earnings of associate - - - - - -
Less: Minority interest - - - - - -
Extra. expense/(inc.) - - - - - -
Net income (reported) 4,442 4,396 2,728 4,041 4,108 5,223
Adj. net income 4,442 4,396 2,728 4,041 4,108 5,223
% chg 201.7 (1.0) (38.0) 48.2 1.6 27.2
(% of Net sales) 51.9 55.8 48.0 50.4 45.7 47.2
Basic EPS (`) 105.1 104.0 64.6 95.6 97.2 123.6
Fully Diluted EPS (`) 105.1 104.0 64.6 95.6 97.2 123.6
% chg 201.7 (1.0) (38.0) 48.2 1.6 27.2
Hindustan Zinc |2QFY2011 Result Update
October 20, 2010 9
Balance Sheet
Y/E March (` cr) FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E
SOURCES OF FUNDS Equity share capital 423 423 423 423 423 423
Reserves & surplus 7,205 11,426 13,935 17,701 21,521 26,378
Shareholders’ funds 7,627 11,848 14,358 18,124 21,944 26,800
Share warrants - - - - - -
Minority interest - - - - - -
Total loans 0 0 9 60 60 60
Deferred tax liability 301 460 559 711 738 749
Total liabilities 7,928 12,308 14,925 18,896 22,742 27,610
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Gross block 3,500 5,182 5,856 8,241 9,768 10,295
Less: Acc. depreciation 1,264 1,485 1,751 2,077 2,556 3,100
Net Block 2,236 3,697 4,105 6,164 7,212 7,194
Capital work-in-Progress 635 465 1,108 1,113 513 213
Goodwill - - - - - -
Investments 4,403 6,332 6,929 10,949 10,949 10,949
Current assets 1,481 2,712 3,784 1,995 5,478 10,871
Cash 120 1,363 2,719 928 3,987 9,180
Loans & advances 305 384 313 457 503 503
Other 1,057 965 751 611 988 1,188
Current liabilities 827 898 1,001 1,326 1,411 1,617
Net current assets 654 1,813 2,783 669 4,067 9,253
Mis. exp. not written off - - - - - -
Total assets 7,928 12,308 14,925 18,896 22,742 27,610
Hindustan Zinc |2QFY2011 Result Update
October 20, 2010 10
Cash Flow Statement
Y/E March (` cr) FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E
Profit before tax 6,454 5,985 3,358 5,014 5,135 6,529
Depreciation 157 222 286 335 479 545 Change in working capital 238 376 296 173 (341) (101)
Less: Other income (144) (767) (777) (563) - -
Direct taxes paid 1,958 1,529 521 785 944 1,265 Cash flow from operations 4,747 4,288 2,642 4,173 4,328 5,708
(Inc.)/ Dec. in fixed assets (1,110) (1,513) (1,374) (2,247) (927) (227)
(Inc.)/ Dec. in investments (2,798) (1,407) (443) (3,922) - -
(Inc.)/ Dec. in loans and advances (142) (80) 71 (96) (46) -
Other income 178 226 (1,602) 2,288 - - Cash flow from investing (3,872) (2,774) (3,348) (3,977) (973) (227)
Issue of equity - - - - - -
Inc./(Dec.) in loans (558) - 8 43 - -
Dividend paid 240 247 124 198 296 288
Others 31 24 22 33.0 - - Cash flow from financing (829) (271) (137) (187) (296) (288)
Inc./(Dec.) in cash 46 1,243 (844) 8 3,060 5,193
Opening cash bal. 74 120 3,563 919 928 3,987
Closing cash bal. 120 1,363 2,719 928 3,987 9,180
Hindustan Zinc |2QFY2011 Result Update
October 20, 2010 11
Key Ratios
Y/E March FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E
Valuation ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) 11.7 11.8 19.0 12.8 12.6 9.9
P/CEPS 11.3 11.2 17.2 11.8 11.3 9.0
P/BV 6.8 4.4 3.6 2.9 2.4 1.9
Dividend yield (%) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6
EV/Sales 5.5 5.6 7.4 5.0 4.1 2.9
EV/EBITDA 7.4 8.2 15.4 8.6 7.7 5.2
EV/Total assets 6.0 3.6 2.8 2.1 1.6 1.2
Per share data (`) EPS (Basic) 105.1 104.0 64.6 95.6 97.2 123.6
EPS (fully diluted) 105.1 104.0 64.6 95.6 97.2 123.6
Cash EPS 108.8 109.3 71.3 103.6 108.6 136.5
DPS 5.0 5.0 4.0 6.0 5.8 7.4
Book value 180.5 280.4 339.8 428.9 519.3 634.3
DuPont analysis EBIT margin 73.0 65.5 43.1 54.1 48.3 50.2
Tax retention ratio (%) 68.8 73.4 81.2 80.6 80.0 80.0
Asset turnover (x) 2.9 2.0 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.4
RoIC (Post-tax) 144.5 94.5 40.2 56.8 46.9 58.2
Cost of debt (post tax) - - - - - -
Leverage (x) - - - - - -
Operating RoE 144.5 94.5 40.2 56.8 46.9 58.2
Returns (%) RoCE (Pre-tax) 102.8 51.0 18.0 25.6 20.9 22.1
Angel RoIC (pre-tax) 237.6 149.1 58.9 86.0 65.8 76.3
RoE 80.3 45.1 20.8 24.9 20.5 21.4
Turnover ratios (x) Asset turnover (gross block) 2.6 1.8 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.1
Inventory (days) 85 76 68 49 60 60
Receivables (days) 24 21 11 7 12 12
Payables (days) 35 52 46 52 45 45
WC cycle (days) 37 34 30 11 12 17
Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity (0.6) (0.6) (0.7) (0.7) (0.7) (0.7)
Net debt to EBITDA (0.7) (1.4) (3.5) (2.5) (3.1) (3.3)
Interest coverage 219.8 213.4 111.9 98.7 114.5 139.2
Hindustan Zinc |2QFY2011 Result Update
October 20, 2010 12
Disclosure of Interest Statement Hindustan Zinc 1. Analyst ownership of the stock No 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock Yes 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No 4. Broking relationship with company covered No Note: We have not considered any Exposure below `1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors. Ratings (Returns) : Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%) Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)
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