gsn retreat feb 8
DESCRIPTION
Evolving Internet architectures and impact on GHG emissionsTRANSCRIPT
The Potential Future Technical and Social Global Impact of GSN
Building a zero carbon economy through ICT
Bill St. [email protected]
Unless otherwise noted all material in this slide deck may be reproduced, modified or distributed without prior permission of the author
Climate Forecasts
MIT
> MIT report predicts median temperature forecast of 5.2C– 11C increase in Northern
Canada– http://globalchange.mit.edu/pub
s/abstract.php?publication_id=990
> Last Ice age average global temperature was 5-6C cooler than today– Most of Canada was under 2-3
km ice– With BAU we are talking about
5-6C change in temperature in the opposite direction in less than 80 Years
Global Average Temperature
2008 second warmest year ever
Climate Change is not reversible
• Climate Change is not like acid rain or ozone destruction where environment will quickly return to normal once source of pollution is removed
• GHG emissions will stay in the atmosphere for thousands of years and continue to accumulate
• Planet will continue to warm up even if we drastically reduce emissions All we hope to achieve is
to slow down the rapid rate of climate change
Weaver et al., GRL (2007)
Climate tipping points
• USGS report finds that future climate shifts have been underestimated and warns of debilitating abrupt shift in climate that would be devastating.
• Tipping elements in the Earth's climate - National Academies of Science– “Society may be lulled into a false sense
of security by smooth projections of global change. Our synthesis of present knowledge suggests that a variety of tipping elements could reach their critical point within this century under anthropogenic climate change. “
The Global ICT Carbon Footprint isRoughly the Same as the Aviation Industry Today
www.smart2020.org
But ICT Emissions are Growing at 6% Annually!
ICT represent 8% of global electricity consumption
Projected to grow to as much as 20% of all electrical consumption in the US (http://uclue.com/index.php?xq=724)
Future Broadband- Internet alone is expected to consume 5% of all electricity http://www.ee.unimelb.edu.au/people/rst/talks/files/Tucker_Green_Plenary.pdf
The Global ICT Carbon Footprint by Subsector
www.smart2020.org
The Number of PCs (Desktops and Laptops) Globally is Expected to Increase
from 592 Million in 2002 to More Than Four Billion in 2020
PCs Are Biggest Problem
Data Centers Are Low Hanging FruitTelecom & Internet
fastest growing
Huge jump in carbon footprint from telecom and Internet
• Huge jump in carbon footprint from telecom and Internet http://bit.ly/4MVcET
• About 37 percent of the carbon footprint of the entire information and communication technology sector (ICT) in 2007 was due to the energy consumption of telecom infrastructure and devices, according to the Climate Group (14 percent came from data centers, and 49 percent came from PCs and peripherals).
• Contrast that with telecom’s carbon footprint figure in 2002 which was 28 percent of ICT’s carbon footprint.
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Evolving Internet & Impact on GHG• Van Jacobson predicted several years ago evolution away from “end-to-
end” Internet to information Internet– http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-6972678839686672840#
• Current Internet is based on old telco architecture of connecting users• New Internet is based on connecting users to information• Arbor study has vindicated Van Jacobson prediction
– C. Labovitz, et al "ATLAS Internet Observatory 2009 Annual Report" http://www.nanog.org/meetings/nanog47/presentations/Monday/Labovitz_ObserveReport_N47_Mon.pdf
– Over 50% of Internet traffic is from handful of information suppliers such as Google, Akamai, Content Distribution networks etc
• Will have major impact on wireless networks as we move from “end to end” cell phone network to cell phone Internet
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Traditional Internet
Backbone ISP1
Backbone ISP 3
Backbone ISP 2
IXIX
RegionalISP
Large ContentProvider with multiple servers
Small ContentProvider
Last mile ISP
Last mile ISP
User’s Computer
User’s Computer
Thousands of miles
Fiber Networks
Information Internet
Backbone ISP1
Backbone ISP 3
Backbone ISP 2
IX IX
RegionalISP
Large ContentProvider
Small ContentProvider
Last mile ISP
Last mile ISP
User’s Computer
User’s Computer CloudCDN
Content hosted in ACI
Nearby
New Internet• Increasingly most connections will be local to nearest IX where user will connect to cloud,
CDN or social network– Connections to another user or computer at the edge of the cloud will be less common
• Network topologies and architectures will be driven by application and content rather than connecting users “end-to-end”
• Cyber-infrastructure and UCLP were forerunners of these development• Future wireless networks are likely to also evolve in this manner
– Don’t need an end to end network for accessing applications and content– User white space and wifi to provide data to cell phones– Next network neutrality battleground will be “last inch” – open devices and “last
tower” - • Much easier to deploy zero carbon Internet
– CDN, clouds and social network infrastructure can be built along GSN model– Users will increasingly use solar powered iPhone, iPad to access information and
applications
• Stay tuned for upcoming paper
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IT biggest power draw
Heating,CoolingandVentilation40-50%
Heating,CoolingandVentilation40-50%
Lighting11%Lighting11%
IT Equipment 30-40%
IT Equipment 30-40%
Other6%Other6%
Sources: BOMA 2006, EIA 2006, AIA 2006
Energy Consumption World Wide
Transportation
25%
Transportation
25%
Manufacturing25%
Manufacturing25%
Buildings50%Buildings50%
Energy Consumption Typical Building
• Half of ICT consumption is data centers
• 50% of today’s Data Centers and major science facilities in the US will have insufficient power and cooling;*
• By 2010, half of all Data Centers will have to relocate or outsource applications to another facility.*
• During the next 5 years, 90% of all companies will experience some kind of power disruption. In that same period one in four companies will experience a significant business disruption*
• Data centers will consume 12% of electricity in the US by 2020 (TV Telecom)
Source: Gartner; Meeting the DC power and cooling challenge
Growth Projections Data Centers
Government and University CIOs have big responsibility
• Public sector is one of the biggest consumers of electricity in Canada
• Upwards of 50% of government and university electricity is for ICT
• US government building data centers where each one consume same amount of power as city of Ottawa
• Demand for Government ICT services expected to grow
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US Climate Legislation
• Waxman-Markey H.R. 2454– “Average” increase in electricity costs for
businesses and institutions will be 60% with cap and trade
– Organizations that use electricity from coal fired power plants will see significantly higher costs (by as much as 3 times current prices)
– 30% of electricity will come from non carbon sources
– Utilities will be required to spend 16% revenues on energy reduction strategies
– If you emit above your “cap” you are required to purchase offsets at $11-$15 per ton in 2012 and roughly double in price by 2025.
• Kerry-Boxer more agrressive reduction targets
State Climate ActionUS STATES 2009
•72% Have Climate Action Plans•42% Have GHG Reduction Targets•66% Are Experimenting with Cap & Trade
SOURCE: Pew Center on Global Climate Change, Climate101-State Actions, January 2009
Public Sector to be carbon neutral by 2010 in BC
• British Columbia was first government to introduce carbon tax in Western Hemisphere
• Provincial Government in province of British Columbia has mandated all public sector institutions to be carbon neutral by 2010– Other provinces exploring to implement the same policy– New Zealand has also made the same requirements
• Many universities and businesses are adopting voluntary carbon neutrality objectives– Dell, Cisco, Google etc
• This will have big impact on CIOs
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Obama orders 28% reduction in Government GHGs
• Will reduce Federal energy use by the equivalent of 646 trillion BTUs,– equal to 205 million barrels of oil, and taking 17 million cars off the
road for one year.• This is also equivalent to a cumulative total of $8 to $11 billion in avoided
energy costs through 2020. • Other governments around the world expected to follow
– Maybe even Canadian government?
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• Bill 44-2007 was introduced in 2007 and enacted into law in 2008. The law is known as the Greenhouse Gas Reductions Target Act.
• The Act establishes greenhouse gas emission target levels for the Province.– 2020 BC GHG will be 33% less than 2007.– 2050 BC GHG will be 80% less than 2007.
• Bill mandates that by 2010 each public sector organization must be carbon neutral.
• If a public sector organization can not achieve carbon neutrality then they are required to purchase offsets at $24/ton
SOURCE: “Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report 2007”, Ministry of Environment, Victoria, British Columbia, July 2009
Source: Jerry Sheehan UCSD
GHG Regulation in British Columbia
UBC Greenhouse Gas Liability 2010-2012
2010 2011 2012
Carbon Offset $1,602,750 $1,602,750 $1,602,750
Carbon Tax $1,179,940 $1,474,925 $1,769,910
Total $2,782,690 $3,077,675 $3,372,660
SOURCE: UBC Sustainability Office, August 2009
SOURCE: http://climateaction.ubc.ca/category/emission-sources
SOURCE: UBC Climate Action Plan, GHG 2006 Inventory
Carbon Costs for the University of British Columbia
MIT to build zero carbon data center in Holyoke MA
• The data center will be managed and funded by the four main partners in the facility: the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cisco Systems, the University of Massachusetts and EMC.
• It will be a high-performance computing environment that will help expand the research and development capabilities of the companies and schools in Holyoke– http://www.greenercomputing.com/news/2009/06/11/ci
sco-emc-team-mit-launch-100m-green-data-center–
Many examples already
Hydro-electric powered data centers
Data IslandiaDigital Data Archive
ASIO solar powered data centers
Wind powered data centersEcotricity in UK builds windmills at data center locations with no capital cost to user
Grand Challenge – Building robust ICT services using renewable energy only
• 30% of electrical power will come from renewable sources
• How do you provide mission critical ICT services when energy source is unreliable?– Ebbing wind or setting sun
• Back up diesel and batteries are not an option because they are not zero carbon and power outages can last for days or weeks
• Need new network architectures and business models to ensure reliable service delivery by quickly moving compute jobs and data sets around the world to sites that have available power– Will require high bandwidth networks and routing architectures to
quickly move jobs and data sets from site to site
Economic benefits of follow the wind/sun architectures
• Cost- and Energy-Aware Load Distribution Across Data Centers– http://www.cs.rutgers.edu/~ricardob/papers/hotpower09.pdf– Green data centers can decrease brown energy consumption by 35%
by leveraging the green data centers at only a 3% cost increase
• Cutting the Electric Bill for Internet-Scale Systems– Companies can shift computing power to a data center in a location
where it’s an off-peak time of the day and energy prices are low– Cassatt a product that dynamically shifts loads to find the cheapest
energy prices– 45% maximum savings in energy costs– http://ccr.sigcomm.org/online/files/p123.pdf– http://earth2tech.com/2009/08/19/how-data-centers-can-follow-ene
rgy-prices-to-save-millions/
IEEE Standard GHG from Hydro and Wind Power Projects
• The IEEE has begun work on a standard which will help hydro- and wind-power projects calculate greenhouse gas (GHG) emission credits.
• The standard, IEEE P1595(TM), "Standard for Quantifying Greenhouse Gas Emission Credits from Small Hydro and Wind Power Projects, and for Grid Baseline Conditions," will establish an internationally acceptable basis for measuring, evaluating and quantifying the eligible, real, measurable, verifiable, and unique reduction in CO2 emissions attributable to the specific generation technologies of wind power and small hydro, for use in emissions trading systems.
• In addition, the standard will help provide an answer to the generic question, how can one country or jurisdiction to a greenhouse gas emissions trade be assured and satisfied that it is getting real and true value for a purchased GHG emissions credit from another country or jurisdiction.
• The standard will use Project Protocols for Wind Power; Small Hydro and Grid Baseline established by Natural Resources Canada as its seed documents.– http://standards.ieee.org/announcements/ieeeP1595_greenhouse.html
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What are carbon offsets?• Many claims of energy savings can only be proven through rigorous process of
carbon offsets (ISO 14064)
• Companies or individuals buy carbon offsets from projects that remove or reduce carbon– Planting trees, building hydro dams, installing energy efficient processes, etc
• Two types of markets– Regulated markets – Alberta, BC , Europe and New England– Voluntary markets – Air Canada, Chicago, etc– Carbon buying and selling is done through registries or exchanges
• Pacific Carbon Trust, Montreal Carbon exchange, REGI
Transferring Alberta’s Wealth to the rest of Canada
www.td.com/economics
• PM Harper has committed reduction of 20% CO2 by 2020 from 2006 baseline
• Government will need to collect $40 -$70 Billion in carbon taxes or cap and trade
• About half the revenues will go to purchasing international offsets
Three approaches to a better planet
• Carbon Neutral– Attempt to reduce CO2 by undertaking activities that balance our
carbon footprint– E.g. Cap and trade, planting trees, etc
• Zero Carbon– Attempt to reduce directly our carbon footprint as close as possible to
zero– E.g. Use of renewable power
• Carbon Positive– Attempt to reduce CO2 greater than our carbon footprint– E.g. Carbon absorbing roof tiles, carbon rewards or gCommerce
Carbon Rewards rather carbon taxes – “gCommerce”
• Although carbon taxes or cap and trade are revenue neutral, they payee rarely sees any direct benefit– No incentive other than higher cost to reduce footprint
• Rather than penalize consumers and businesses for carbon emissions, can we reward them for reducing their carbon emissions?
• Carbon rewards can be “virtual” products delivered over broadband networks such movies, books, education, health services, collarboartive education and research technologies etc
• Carbon reward can also be free ICT services (with low carbon footprint) such as Internet, cellphone, fiber to the home, etc
Final remarks
• The problem we face is NOT energy consumption, but carbon emissions
• Think carbon, not energy
• We must start addressing climate change now – not in 2050 or 2020
• 80% reduction in CO2 emissions will fundamentally change everything we do including ICT and networks
• Huge potential for innovation for ICT sector because 30% of energy must come from renewable sources
Thank you
• More information• List server on Green IT– Send e-mail to [email protected]
• http://green-broadband.blogspot.com• http://free-fiber-to-the-home.blogspot.com/