13/05/2015

FY14-15 WORK PLAN TECHNICAL TASK UPDATE

Sue Kemball-Cook, Jeremiah Johnson, John Grant and Greg Yarwood

13/05/2015

• In January, 2015, Environ

merged with Ramboll, a

European engineering firm

• Started using new name May 1

• No changes to work or contracts

for NETAC or ETCOG, but new

colleagues across more areas of

expertise

• Combined firm has 12,500 employees in 300 offices across 35 countries

• Novato, CA office is in the Environment & Health practice at Ramboll

RAMBOLL ENVIRON MERGER

13/05/2015

• SOF team slides

TASK 5: HRVOC MEASUREMENTS IN THE SABINE INDUSTRIAL DISTRICT

13/05/2015

TASK 2.3: EMISSION INVENTORY REVIEW

Review of TCEQ 2012 Emission Inventory for 5-County Area

• Reviewed off-road, area (non-point), and point sources to identify:

• Sources that are missing from the inventory or are not well-characterized

• Sources that are overestimated or underestimated, are highly uncertain, or for which more accurate or detailed emissions are available

• Source categories for which further emission inventory development efforts are warranted

• Evaluated emissions trends

13/05/2015

• Total anthropogenic NOx emissions reduced from 208 tpd in 2006

to 132 tpd in 2012 (37% decrease)

• On-road mobile decrease due to fleet turnover despite increase in

miles driven

NOx EMISSIONS TRENDS: 2006 TO 2012

13/05/2015

• Anthropogenic + biogenic

(natural sources) emissions

• VOC inventory dominated by

biogenics (1,095 tpd in

2012)

• Abundant biogenics mean there

is typically sufficient VOC to form

ozone

• Ozone formation limited by

the amount of available NOx

TOTAL VOC EMISSION INVENTORY 2012

13/05/2015

• Reductions in oil and gas, area, on-road and point source emissions

VOC EMISSIONS TRENDS: 2006 TO 2012

13/05/2015

• Drilling emissions decreased by 9 tpd from 2008 to 2012

• Locomotive emissions increased

• Underestimation error in emissions calculation identified in previous emission inventory reviews was corrected

2012 OFF-ROAD MOBILE NOx EMISSIONS

13/05/2015

2012 POINT SOURCE NOx EMISSIONS

13/05/2015

• Overall decrease from 2006 to 2012, with some increases from 2010 to 2012

• Decreases in NOx driven by reductions at Martin Lake Power Plant in Rusk County

and Pirkey Power Plant in Harrison County

• Harrison County VOC inventory dominated by Sabine Industrial Complex

• HRVOC emissions can influence ozone at CAMS 19 during northerly winds

POINT SOURCE EMISSION TRENDS

13/05/2015

• Oil and gas is the largest contributor to area source emissions

• Fuel combustion is the second largest source of NOx emissions

• Gasoline distribution is the second largest source of VOC emissions

2012 AREA SOURCE EMISSIONS

13/05/2015

• Compressor engines dominate NOx emission inventory

• VOC emissions divided among many categories

2012 OIL AND GAS EMISSIONS BY SOURCE CATEGORY

13/05/2015

• Update activity and equipment data for compressor engines used in natural gas

production (high priority)

• Survey owner/operators of gas compressor engines in the 5-county area to

determine engine count and operating characteristics

• Based on NETAC’s limited success in prior efforts to obtain information from

operators on a voluntary basis, we believe that it is unlikely that NETAC could

provide more detailed emission inventory data absent a requirement that

operations data be provided

• Continue efforts to better quantify HRVOC emissions from the Sabine Industrial

District (high priority)

• NETAC performed a SOF study in the Sabine Industrial District in April, 2015

• Update oil and gas activity/equipment area source emissions data (low

priority)

• Verify data underlying gasoline distribution emission inventory (low priority)

RECOMMENDATIONS

13/05/2015

TASK 4: PHOTOCHEMICAL MODELING

• TCEQ has developed a June 2012 ozone model for the Texas Near Nonattainment Areas

• Recent episode with emissions closer to current levels than previous June 2006 episode

• TCEQ plans to expand episode to include entire 2012 ozone season

• NETAC will use the 2012 model to understand ozone in Northeast Texas and model

emission control strategies

• In 1st half of 2015, we ran model using TCEQ weather data, emissions, and other inputs

• Evaluated CAMx model at Northeast Texas monitors and began efforts to improve model

performance

• In 2nd half of 2015, continue efforts to improve performance and carry out CAMx source

apportionment modeling to determine:

• Relative importance of local emissions sources and transport at Northeast Texas monitors

• Contributions from local emissions source categories (on-road mobile, oil and gas, etc.)

13/05/2015

• Model captures many features of the observations, but tends to

overestimate ozone

• Underestimates ozone on June 26 high ozone day

• Excellent simulation of June 27 high ozone day

MODEL PERFORMANCE EVALUATION: TYLER

13/05/2015

• Model captures general trends in observations, but tends to overestimate ozone

• Approximate magnitude of June 26 peak is well-simulated, although timing of

peak is earlier in the model than in observations

• ~20 ppb overestimate on June 27 high ozone day

MODEL PERFORMANCE EVALUATION: LONGVIEW

13/05/2015

• High bias is more pronounced at Karnack and Longview than at Tyler

• Low observed nocturnal minima suggest that Karnack is influenced by local

NOx source

• June 26-27 peaks overestimated by the model, June 28 very well-simulated

MODEL PERFORMANCE EVALUATION: KARNACK

13/05/2015

• WRF meteorological model provides weather data to CAMx ozone

model

• Ramboll Environ is working with TCEQ to improve WRF

performance in Northeast Texas

• Initial WRF model evaluation showed wind speed biases relative to

CAMS monitor winds and too much sunlight reaching the ground

• Re-ran evaluation with airport weather observations to determine if monitor siting issues are affecting results

• Wind speed biases reduced/changed sign with ds472 airport data

• Tested effect of using different surface roughness data in WRF (small)

• Will re-run WRF with cloud algorithms developed by EPA recently

released in new version of WRF

WRF METEOROLOGICAL MODELING

13/05/2015

• Task 1: Conceptual Model Update

• 2015 high ozone day evaluation

• Task 2.1: Oil and Gas Emission Inventory Update

• Task 3: Control Strategy Evaluation

• Tyler Pipe engine evaluation

• TERP participation

• Energy Efficiency

• Task 6: Air Quality Planning

• FY16-17 Work Plan

• Ozone Advance Action Plan

OTHER TASKS

13/05/2015

END

13/05/2015

• Power generation (9.9 MW) from 5 diesel engines and 1 natural

gas-fired engine during ozone season

LOCATION OF TYLER PIPE

13/05/2015

• Update existing 2012 emission inventory for Haynesville Shale

natural gas exploration and production sources and conventional

oil and gas sources

• Project emissions for years 2013-2020

• Evaluate current trends

• Estimate future year activity

• Project emissions, incorporating future controls

TASK 2.1: OIL AND GAS EMISSION INVENTORY UPDATE

13/05/2015

• Haynesville wells are a small fraction of total active gas well count

• Rate of increase in well count declined after 2011 as drilling slowed

OIL AND NATURAL GAS WELL COUNT TRENDS

13/05/2015

• Haynesville production fraction increasing over time

• Gas production increased from 2012-2014 despite low gas prices

NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION TRENDS

13/05/2015

• Oil production increased 2011-2014 with higher oil prices

OIL PRODUCTION TRENDS

13/05/2015

• Episode average bias is positive (1.7) at CAMS 19, negative at

KGGG (-1.1)

COMPARISON OF CAMS AND AIRPORT DATA

S SSNE

S SSNE

13/05/2015

COMPARISON OF CAMS AND AIRPORT DATA

13/05/2015

LONGVIEW CAMS 19 MONITOR SITING

28

60 yards

160 yards

Buildings to SE and NWLine of trees S thru EScattered trees to NE

13/05/2015

• Episode average bias: KASL (0.63 m/s), CAMS 85 (2.4 m/s)

COMPARISON OF CAMS AND AIRPORT DATA

S

S

13/05/2015

COMPARISON OF CAMS AND AIRPORT DATA

13/05/2015

KARNACK CAMS 85 MONITOR SITING

31

55 yards

44 yards100 yards

Trees to W, N, and E

13/05/2015

• Episode average bias: KTYR (-0.71 m/s), CAMS 82 (0.39 m/s)

COMPARISON OF CAMS AND AIRPORT DATA

S

S

13/05/2015

• Similar wind direction time series for the two sites

COMPARISON OF CAMS AND AIRPORT DATA

13/05/2015

TYLER CAMS 82 MONITOR SITING

34

150 yards

Open except to N