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FY14-15 Work Plan Technical Task Update

Sue Kemball-Cook, Jeremiah Johnson, John Grant and Greg Yarwood

NETAC Technical and Policy Committee Meetings

December 4, 2014

Task 1: Conceptual Model

• QAPP approved

• 2014 ozone season analysis completed

• Ambient data analysis will be performed spring 2015

• Report due July 1, 2015

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Task 2: Emission Inventory Improvement

• Review of TCEQ Emission Inventory

– QAPP approved

– Analysis of TCEQ 2012 inventory nearly complete

Reductions in NOx and VOC emissions for 5-county area in 2012 relative to 2008

– Report due January 15, 2014

• Oil and Gas Emission Inventory Update

– QAPP approved

– Analysis underway

– Report due June 1, 2015

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Task 3: Control Strategy Evaluation Update

• QAPP submitted, awaiting approval

• Follow up with respondents to 2013 air quality improvement program information request– City of Longview, City of Henderson

– Luminant, AEP, Eastman Chemical Updates, new programs

• New information request – 5-county cities and counties

– School districts

• All air quality improvement programs will be reported in NETAC’s Ozone Advance document

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Task 3: Control Strategy Evaluation Update

• State law requires cities and counties to reduce energy use by 5% each fiscal year for 10 years beginning in 2011 – Quantify emissions reductions from 5-county area

energy efficiency programs TAMU/TCEQ emissions reduction calculations

EPA’s AVERT emissions quantification tool

• Emissions reductions will be reported in next year’s Ozone Advance update and the Control Strategy Evaluation Update report

• Report due July 15, 2015

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Task 4: Photochemical Modeling

• QAPP approved

• Development of 2012 photochemical modeling episode

• Report due August 15, 2015

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New Modeling Episode: June 2012

• 5 days with MDA8>65 ppb at Northeast Texas monitors

– Not an optimal episode for Northeast Texas

• August 2012 has 10 days with MDA8>65 ppb

• TCEQ plans full ozone season episode for 2012

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Meteorological Modeling of June 2012

• Run WRF meteorological model to provide weather inputs (winds, clouds, etc.) for CAMx ozone model

• The TCEQ made an initial WRF run for June 2012

• ENVIRON evaluated this initial model run with focus on Northeast Texas

– Surface weather at CAMS sites

– Precipitation

– Satellite images of clouds

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Wind Speed

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• Persistent high bias in wind speed, less pronounced at Tyler

Longview Monitor Siting

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60 yards

160 yards

Buildings to SE and NWLine of trees S thru EScattered trees to NE

Longview Winds

• Several episodes of over-predicted wind speed at Longview coincide with southerly wind directions

S SSNE

Karnack Monitor Siting

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55 yards

44 yards100 yards

Trees to W, N, and E

Karnack Winds

• Less correlation between high wind speed bias and wind direction

• Wind speed biased high on nearly all days

• Large over-predictions also seen during June 18-20 (southerly)

S

Tyler Monitor Siting

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150 yards

Open except to N

Tyler Winds

• Tyler wind speed bias is smaller in general

• Periods of over-predictions much shorter than Longview or Karnack

S S S

Cumulus Clouds

• Cumulus clouds are smaller than a single 4 km x 4 km grid cell

• WRF does not model them explicitly, but approximates their effects on temperature, moisture and precipitation

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Cloud Comparison: June 28

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Satellite WRF Model

Precipitation

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WRF Model Evaluation

• Cumulus clouds not “seen” by downwelling sunlight in the model– Too much sunlight reaches the ground

– Surface temperature too high during daytime

– Excessive sunlight available to form ozone and biogenic emissions

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Recommendations

• Work together with TCEQ to improve WRF performance in Northeast Texas before running CAMx ozone model

– Re-run evaluation with airport weather observations to determine if siting issues are affecting results

– Re-run WRF with cloud algorithms developed by EPA and slated to be released shortly

– Test effect of using different surface roughness data in WRF

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Task 5: SOF Study in the Sabine Industrial District

• QAPP approved• Study to take place in April, 2015

– 2 week study, 7-10 days of data collection

• Input to Study Design from Eastman Chemical– Keep a record of plant operations during study– More data on wind speed aloft

LIDAR mini-profiler Wind instruments on tall structures

– Test the SOF emissions measurement technique Controlled ethylene release (~10 kg/hour) away from the plant Ideally, independent party to control release and assess results

– Ground-level measurements to assess vertical gradients– Insufficient funding for all extra elements

• Report due August 1, 201521

Tasks 6 and 8: Air Quality Planning

• PGA amendment approved by TCEQ in November 2014

• New Tasks:

– Ozone Advance Program Path Forward Letter or Action Plan

– Development of FY16-17 work plan

Funding for the new tasks reassigned from Task 4, Photochemical Modeling

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END

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