Forward lookingForward looking agriculture & agriculture & environmentenvironment

Questionnaire Questionnaire resultsresults

EIONET Agriculture WorkshopEEA, 25th February 2010

Forward looking agriculture & environmentForward looking agriculture & environmentQuestionnaire resultsQuestionnaire results

• The global perspective: food security and sustainability

• Major environmental risks regarding food security and food sustainability in the near future

• Which direction/priority should be given to the agri-environment work at the EEA regarding these issues?

• Territorial dimensions of agriculture, forest and biodiversity, and the EU common policies

• Main concerns related to the environmental and territorial dimensions of current and future dynamics in farmland, forestland and rural areas

• Which direction/priority should be given to the agri-environment work at the EEA regarding these issues?

• Some links to research, scenarios & outlooks

The global perspective: food security and sustainabilityThe global perspective: food security and sustainability

Major environmental risks regarding food securityand food sustainability in the near future

• High consumption of inorganic fertilizers and plant protection products• Need for specific management: areas of structural excess of nitrogen, vulnerable areas,…

• Presence of GMO not intended for food production in food• Environmental impacts of GMOs

• Soils: (for clarification – JRC in charge of topic “soils”)• Soil contamination (presence of heavy metals, hydrocarbons, pesticides, insecticides…)• Soil loss, soil degradation (compaction, erosion, desertification) and soil sealing

(construction of infrastructure, urban sprawl etc.)

• Water contamination; Water scarcity (inefficient irrigation and climate change)

• Loss of biodiversity

• Climate change impacts and agriculture: emissions from agriculture; water stress, droughts and other extreme weather events; farmland and forestland as carbon storage

• Still lack of adaptation strategies for agriculture at regional/local level

• Bio-energy from agriculture• (Intensive) use of agricultural land and products as renewable energy sources: remaining

agriculture resources for food production?• Impacts on food prices and significant risks of food provision in poor countries, as well as on

deforestation.• Need to look for alternatives (plant waste, biomass), but they require more financing than

1st gen. biofuels

Which direction/priority should be given to the agri-environment work at the EEA regarding these issues? (1/2)

• High priority to agri-environment work at the EEA

• EEA should solve and deal with the most important topic at EU level; policy agenda• Cooperate and harmonise the work in this field with other European and international

organisations (EUROSTAT, OECD, FAO) as well as between member countries

• Improve communication with stakeholders and policy-making actors (DG AGRI, DG EN,MS…); also with the agriculture research community

• More focus on case studies, when possible, and bottom-up and self regulation practices (e.g. networking to identify best-practices at local level)

• Building on the concept of the “Agro-environmental efficiency” as a principle for evaluating different farm management systems

• Stimulating holistic approach in agro-environmental planning, including socio-economic issues

• e.g. guidelines for improvement of environmental challenges, related to socio-economic developments (particularly interesting to countries with economies in transition and soil pollution)

• Monitoring of emerging and propagating trends

Which direction/priority should be given to the agri-environment work at the EEA regarding these issues? (2/2)

• How to meet the increasing world food demand?• Production quantity and quality with respect for the environment• Is it possible food self-sufficiency in the EU with higher environmental & quality

standards e.g. organic food, denominations of origin?• What priority between food and non-food production?

• Specific themes:

• Consumption of inorganic fertilizers and plant protection products: systems for more efficiency and environmentally friendly practices (e.g. precision farming…)

• Sustainable farming of agricultural land: organic farming, integrated agriculture, rational and biodynamic agriculture…• Impacts on production, yields, areas… • Guidelines on good agriculture practices

• Water use efficiency: improvement of irrigation management, adaptation to water shortages…

• Study of material and energy flows in agricultural systems

• Biodiversity protection, agriculture-related biodiversity

Territorial dimensions of agriculture, forest and biodiversity,Territorial dimensions of agriculture, forest and biodiversity, and the EU common policies and the EU common policies

Main concerns related to the environmental and territorial dimensions of current and future dynamics in farmland, forestland and rural areas

• Urban pressures on agriculture and forest land: urban sprawl, suburbanisation…

• Occupation of farmland and forest land by uncontrolled urbanisation (need for more regulation on suburbanisation, urban sprawl…), particularly in densely populated zones; urbanization of most fertile agricultural and forest soils!

• Safeguard the future of rural areas

• Agricultural multifunctionality : balance between the provision of food, energy and environmental services• Need to integrate rural development with spatial management (plans, regulations…)• Poor infrastructure development (e.g. water treatment and water supply infrastructure)

• Dualistic trend of intensification of agriculture and abandonment of farming

• Specific areas of concern: LFA (particularly in mountains and remote areas), HNVF and organic farming; as well as forest areas• Adverse environmental effects of intensification of agricultural agriculture & livestock production; trends to concentration of

agriculture, especially animal production, in certain areas

• Protection of biodiversity

• Land abandonment and its effect on biodiversity• Endangered biodiversity (and landscape values) due to relatively high areas of bio-energy crops

• Forests• Need for cultivation of healthy forests• Risks derived from illegal logging in forested areas and low scale of reforestation

• Pressures from bio-energy and renewable energies• Lack of balance between energy, food and environmental concerns• Impact of energy crops and renewable energy on water (quantity and quality) and food production

Which direction/priority should be given to the agri-environment work at the EEA regarding these issues? (1/2)

• Technical support for the enforcement/implementation of plans, programmes and legal framework to address the issues mentioned in the first question

• Support policy decisions at EU level by relevant studies focused on territorial dynamics from an environmental point of view

• Improve communication with stakeholders and policy-making actors (DG AGRI, DG ENV, DG REGIO, MS)

• More focus on case studies, when possible, and bottom-up and self regulation practices (e.g. networking to identify best-practices at local level)

• More efforts to interpretation on the basis of local conditions (the same phenomena can be in certain conditions desired while in others unwanted)

• Collection of regional/local/farm level information on land abandonment and biodiversity in farmland areas

• Coupling of databases on land use with information on agricultural intensity (type of crops, use of fertilizer and pesticides) and landscape features (Lucas)

• Collection of expenditures on agricultural policies, at appropriate geographical scale, to provide assessment of effectiveness of these expenditures/measures (CAP 1st and 2nd pillars, agri-environmental measures, Leader…)

Which direction/priority should be given to the agri-environment work at the EEA regarding these issues? (2/2)

• On specific themes:

• Appropriation of agricultural land

• Soil erosion, soil loss, soil sealing

• Urban sprawl and Suburbanisation in agriculture and forest land

• Contribute to identification of HNVF in EU and harmonisation of methodology

• The implementation of agri-environment idea and concepts in new MS and candidate countries• focus on rural areas and outlooks on the implementation in practice of agri-

environment measures• raise awareness among farmers on agri-environmental benefits

• Management of water cycle: quality and quantity (catchment areas of drinking water, borders of streams, resource use for irrigation ...)

• Protection of biodiversity: landscape values, green and blue frame, IAE, protected areas ...

• Renewable energy sources, development options at local scale

Research projects/studies, including scenarios & outlooks? Research projects/studies, including scenarios & outlooks?

CZECH REPUBLIC• Environmental Health Monitoring System in the Czech Republic, Summary

Report, 2008. National Institute of Public Health, Prague,Prague, August 2009 http://www.szu.cz/uploads/documents/chzp/souhrnna_zprava/Szu_09_1_.pdf

SLOVAKIA• Ministry of agriculture of the SR: Prediction and outlook of Slovak agriculture,

food industry, forestry and rural areas (by the year 2025), Bratislava, 2008, 233 p. On-line (in Slovak): http://www.land.gov.sk/sk/index.php?navID=2&navID2=2&sID=17&id=657

• Institute for forecasting, Slovak academy of sciences: Slovak republic outlook (by the year 2020, including agriculture), Bratislava, 2002, 177 p. On-line (in Slovak):http://www.government.gov.sk/6613/vizia-vyvoja-slovenskej- republiky-do-roku-2020-institut-pre-verejne-otazky.php

• Ministry of environment of the SR: The fourth national communication of the Slovak republic on climate change (including projections of GHG from agriculture, scenarios for development in agriculture), 2005, 138 p. On-line (in English):http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/slknc4.pdf

Research projects/studies, including scenarios & outlooks? (1/4)

NETHERLANDS• EU-ruralis: http://www.eururalis.eu/

• Growing within limits: http://www.pbl.nl/en/publications/2009/Growing-within-limits.-A-report-to-the-Global-Assembly-2009-of-the-Club-of-Rome.html

• Second sustainability outlook http://www.pbl.nl/en/publications/2008/The-Netherlands-in-a-sustainable-world.html

• Background report to the OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030. Overviews, details, and methodology of model-based analysis http://www.pbl.nl/en/publications/2008/BackgroundreporttotheOECDEnvironmentalOutlookto2030.html

POLAND• Info on ongoing projects http://biper.iung.pulawy.pl/iungen/

• Climate change issues (specifically on adaptation) http://www.ios.edu.pl/eng/welcome.html

• HNV scenarios and approach. Institute of Geodesy and Cartography http://www.igik.edu.pl/#nogo

• Water issues and land reclamation project. Polish Institute of Land Reclamation and Grassland Farming http://www.imuz.edu.pl/imuz.htm

Research projects/studies, including scenarios & outlooks? (2/4)

FRANCE

• Agrimonde: Agriculture and food worldwide in 2050: scenarios and challenges for sustainable developmenthttp://www.inra.fr/l_institut/prospective/agrimonde

• Design of a platform construction, analysis and discussion of development scenarios• To stimulate and contribute to the debate and test the robustness of the assumptions

made, the platform is backed by a quantitative tool, Agribiom, which reconstructs the past decades or simulates, based on assumptions of experts balances job-resource biomass

• Interaction with experts and researchers in a working group and expert committee. Eventually, the discussion should also involve policy makers and, more generally, stakeholders and actors in the agricultural and food system. 

• CIRAD French research centre working with developing countries to tackle international agricultural and development issues http://www.cirad.fr/ (Mr. Michel Griffon)

• ECOPHYTO R&D – ways to reduce the use of pesticides (Jean-Marc Meynard). French National Institute for Agricultural Research (INRA) http://www.inra.fr/l_institut/etudes/ecophyto_r_d/ecophyto_r_d_resultats

Research projects/studies, including scenarios & outlooks? (3/4)

BELGIUM – FLEMISH REGION

• Environmental outlook to 2030 for the Flemish Region, Belgium, published 09/12/2009 (English translation is currently being prepared and will be available by the end of May) http://www.milieurapport.be/nl/publicaties/milieuverkenning-2030/

• Nature outlook to 2030 for the Flemish Region, Belgium, published 09/12/2009: http://www.inbo.be/content/page.asp?pid=BEL_NARA_NARA2009download

• Interactive atlas of indicators: to compose your own scenario’s of the indicators taken into account in the two above mentioned rapports: http://rma.vgt.vito.be/verkenner/verkenning.jsf

Research projects/studies, including scenarios & outlooks? (4/4)

• EEA website (indicators to be updated after SOER) http://www.eea.europa.eu/themes/scenarios/indicators/document_view?b_start:int=20&-C http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/technical_report_2008_8

• EIONET / NRC FLIS (Forward Looking information) - last meeting September 2009

SCENAR 2020• First phase finished 2006; published 2007. SCENAR 2020 II in progress.

Objectives:• to identify major future trends and driving forces that shape the framework

conditions of rural areas in the year 2020• 3 scenarios combining macro-economic and demographic developments with

several sets of policies at the EU level• for each different “future”, the perspectives and challenges of rural areas are

derived and an assessment of regional development strengths and weaknesses against the external opportunities and threats is done

http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/publi/reports/scenar2020/index_en.htmhttp://www.euragri.org/media/309/Nowicki

Research projects/studies, including scenarios & outlooks?Compiled by EEA

CAPRI• Global agricultural sector model http://www.capri-model.org/

• Evaluation exante impacts of CAP and trade policies on production, income, markets, trade, and the environment, from global to regional scale.

• Spatial downscaling for EU27 of crop shares, yields, stocking densities, fertilizer application rates for environmental impact assessment and link to bio-physical models.

SEAMLESS• Framework for Integrated assessment of Agricultural systems (2005-

2009) - modelling the impacts on Agriculture and Environment http://www.seamless-ip.org/

COCONUT• Understanding effects of land use changes on ecosystems to halt loss of

biodiversity due to habitat destruction, fragmentation and degradation (2006-2008) http://coconut-project.net/

LUMOCAP• Dynamic land use change modelling for CAP impact assessment on the

rural landscape (2005-2008) http://www.riks.nl/projects/LUMOCAP

Research projects/studies, including scenarios & outlooks?Compiled by EEA

GCAFS (Global Environmental Change and Food Systems)• Major project on Agri & food system http://www.gecafs.org/

ESF – European Science Foundation• European Food Systems in a Changing World.- Forward Look is a

multidisciplinary joint ESF/COST initiative. Concluded 2007 http://www.esf.org/activities/forward-looks/life-earth-and-environmental-sciences-lesc/current-forward-looks-in-life-earth-and-environmental-sciences/european-food-systems-in-a-changing-world.html

Climate Smart Food conference (Sweden, November 2009) http://www.se2009.eu/en/meetings_news/2009/11/23/climate_smart_food

Science (12 February 2010 issue)• Special Online Collection: Food Security http://www.sciencemag.org/special/

foodsecurity/• Insight into obstacles to achieving global food security • Articles, reviews, interviews… to provide a broader context for the causes and effects

of food insecurity, measuring food insecurity, rethinking agriculture…

L’ Expansion (January 2010 issue) • Survey on over-costs of “green life” (le "surcoût de la vie en vert“)

http://www.lexpansion.com/economie/actualite-economique/le-bio-en-grande-surface-70-pourcent-plus-cher_225638.html

Research projects/studies, including scenarios & outlooks?Compiled by EEA

Agricultural commodities markets and trade

DG AGRI• Economic analysis and market forecasts: economic and quantitative studies of EU

agriculture and rural areas as well as short, medium and long-term forecasts of EU and world agricultural commodity markets. ttp://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/analysis/markets/index_en.htm

• Prospects for agricultural markets and income 2008-2015• The impact of a minimum 10% obligation for biofuel use in the EU-27 in 2020 on

agricultural markets

OECD-FAO• OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2008-2017 (summaries on-line, full document by

subscription):http://www.agri-outlook.org/pages/0,3417,en_36774715_36775671_1_1_1_1_1,00.html#Essential• world market trends for the main agricultural products, as well as biofuels;• assessment of agricultural market prospects for production, consumption, trade, stocks and

prices of the included commodities.

IFPRI (International Food Policy Research Institute)• A 2020 Vision for Food, Agriculture, and the Environment

http://www.ifpri.org/2020/2020about.asp

Research projects/studies, including scenarios & outlooks?Compiled by EEA

Territorial dimensions

DG REGIO. ESPON 2000-2006 (ESPON 2007-13 just started)

• Scenarios on the territorial future for Europe (not specific for agriculture but conclusions and background info regarding rural areas) http://www.espon.eu/mmp/online/website/content/publications/98/1378/index_EN.html

Other related projects in ESPON 2000-06• -Territorial impact of CAP and Rural Development Policy:

http://www.espon.eu/mmp/online/website/content/projects/243/277/index_EN.html• - Urban-rural relations in Europe

http://www.espon.eu/mmp/online/website/content/projects/259/649/index_EN.html

FARO• Foresight Analysis of Rural areas Of Europe (2007-2008)

http://www.faro-eu.org/home/tabid/195/Default.aspx• Major trends and driving forces affecting rural regions? At which scales do they operate? • Which of these processes are amenable to change through RD policies and where? • How rural policies might be adapted in the future to take account of these processes?

PLANBLEU • Sustainable development outlook for the Mediterranean (July 2008):

http://www.planbleu.org/actualite/fr/UpM.html

Research projects/studies, including scenarios & outlooks?Compiled by EEA

Forward looking agriculture & environmentForward looking agriculture & environmentQuestionnaire resultsQuestionnaire results

Many thanks for your contributions!!