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Lukasz Nazarko, Foresight Impact on Innovation

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Foresight Impact on Innovation

Lukasz Nazarko, M.A.

Visitining Research Associate@

Yashiro LabInstitute of Industrial Sciences

University of Tokyo

Fellowship for Intellectual Exchange Program

Bialystok University of Technology Faculty of Management

research reportprogress

Fellowship for Intellectual Exchange Program

Lukasz Nazarko, Foresight Impact on Innovation

2/16

Research aims

cognitive aim – critical analysis of the current body of knowledge in the field of relationship between foresight and innovation

methodological aim – identification of scales, indicators and parameters of the assessment of foresight impact on innovation

application aim – formulation of the criteria to compare Polish and Japanese foresight from the perspective of their impact on innovation

application aim – developing a set of recommendations for Polish foresight practitioners regarding the enhancement of foresight project impact on innovation, country’s innovation policy and the national innovation system.

Fellowship for Intellectual Exchange Program

Lukasz Nazarko, Foresight Impact on Innovation

3/16

Methodology

• Literature studiesPapers on the nature of innovation, innovation policy and foresight

• Document and presentation analysisMaterials from Kantei, NISTEP, NIES and Ministry of Environment

• Interviews (unstructured)

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Lukasz Nazarko, Foresight Impact on Innovation

4/16

Interviews

• prof. Satoshi Yoshida - Advanced Institute of Industrial Technology

• dr Tatsuya Hanaoka - National Institute of Environmental Studies (NIES)

• Mr Sei Kato - Ministry of Environment, Climate Change Policy Division

• dr Tsuneo Ichiguchi - NISTEP, Science and Technology Foresight Centre

• Ms Asuka Hoshikoshi - NISTEP

• dr Yuko Ito - Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology

• prof. Takahiro Fujimoto – Manufacturing Management Research Center, University of Tokyo

• Prof. Yasunori Baba - Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, University of Tokyo

• prof. Kazuhiko Ogimoto - Collaborative Research Center for Energy Engineering, University of Tokyo

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Lukasz Nazarko, Foresight Impact on Innovation

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Who does foresight in Japan?

• National Institute of Science and Technology Policy (NISTEP)

• National Institute of Environmental Studies (NIES)

• Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI)

• more?

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Foresight Methods in Japan

Global Foresight Outlook (2007), adapted from Popper, R. (2008) Foresight Methodology, in Georghiou, L., Cassingena H., J., Keenan, M., Miles, I., and Popper, R., The Handbook of Technology Foresight: Concepts and Practice

Dominant foresight methods in Japan:

Backcasting

Roadmapping

Delphi

Key technologies

Scenarios

Expert panels

Literature review

Bibliometrics

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Lukasz Nazarko, Foresight Impact on Innovation

7/16

Foresight and Innovation Policy

• NISTEP – strong involvement in the S&T Basic Plan formulation and assessment

• NIES – Japan Low Carbon Society 2050 � Ministry of Environment

• METI – Cool Earth - Innovative Energy Technology Program

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Lukasz Nazarko, Foresight Impact on Innovation

8/16

Foresight Evaluation

perspectives

Effectiveness

BehaviouralAdditionality

Efficiency

Relevance & Appropriateness

Process evaluation

Outcome

Evaluation

the cultivation of foresight culture

the establishment of target

groups’ values

the participation of

stakeholders

the usage of data

time/resources Management

the channels of communication

the dissemination of information

the sources of available data

the selection of foresight

methods

the connection between foresight goals and

background problems

the appropriateness

of foresight activities

the level of policy making

the construction of network

the quality of communication

between participators the adjustment

of policy issues

the implementation of strategies

the ability of innovation

Foresight Evaluation

perspectives

Effectiveness

BehaviouralAdditionality

Efficiency

Relevance & Appropriateness

Process evaluation

Outcome

Evaluation

Foresight Evaluation

perspectives

Effectiveness

BehaviouralAdditionality

Efficiency

Relevance & Appropriateness

Foresight Evaluation

perspectives

Effectiveness

BehaviouralAdditionality

Efficiency

Relevance & Appropriateness

Foresight Evaluation

perspectives

Effectiveness

BehaviouralAdditionality

Efficiency

Relevance & Appropriateness

Process evaluation

Outcome

Evaluation

Process evaluation

Outcome

Evaluation

the cultivation of foresight culture

the establishment of target

groups’ values

the cultivation of foresight culture

the establishment of target

groups’ values

the participation of

stakeholders

the usage of data

time/resources Management

the channels of communication

the dissemination of information

the sources of available data

the selection of foresight

methods

the participation of

stakeholders

the usage of data

time/resources Management

the channels of communication

the dissemination of information

the sources of available data

the selection of foresight

methods

the connection between foresight goals and

background problems

the appropriateness

of foresight activities

the connection between foresight goals and

background problems

the appropriateness

of foresight activities

the level of policy making

the construction of network

the quality of communication

between participators the adjustment

of policy issues

the implementation of strategies

the ability of innovation

the level of policy making

the construction of network

the quality of communication

between participators the adjustment

of policy issues

the implementation of strategies

the ability of innovation Evaluating

ForsightImpact on

policy

Li, S-S, Kang, M-H, Lee, L-C, Developing the evaluation framework of technology foresight program: lesson learned from European countries, Atlanta Conference on Science and Innovation Policy, Atlanta Conference on Science and Innovation Policy, 2009

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Lukasz Nazarko, Foresight Impact on Innovation

9/16

Evaluating Foresight Impact on PolicyProgram implementation

Process evaluation

Influencing policy

Outcome evaluation

StrategicObjective

Overall Policy Goal

Output

Outcome Impact

Effect

Input

ForesightActivities

Visioning

FramingFeedback

Planning

Acting Scanning

Forecasting

Effectiveness

BehaviouralAdditionality

Efficiency

Relevance & Appropriateness

Program implementation

Process evaluation

Influencing policy

Outcome evaluation

StrategicObjective

Overall Policy Goal

Output

Outcome Impact

Effect

Input

ForesightActivities

Visioning

FramingFeedback

Planning

Acting Scanning

Forecasting

Effectiveness

BehaviouralAdditionality

Efficiency

Relevance & Appropriateness

Program implementation

Process evaluation

Influencing policy

Outcome evaluation

Program implementation

Process evaluation

Program implementation

Process evaluation

Influencing policy

Outcome evaluation

Influencing policy

Outcome evaluation

StrategicObjective

Overall Policy Goal

Output

Outcome Impact

Effect

Input

ForesightActivities

Visioning

FramingFeedback

Planning

Acting Scanning

Forecasting

Effectiveness

BehaviouralAdditionality

Efficiency

Relevance & Appropriateness

StrategicObjective

Overall Policy Goal

Output

Outcome Impact

Effect

Input

ForesightActivities

Visioning

FramingFeedback

Planning

Acting Scanning

Forecasting

StrategicObjective

Overall Policy Goal

StrategicObjective

Overall Policy Goal

Output

Outcome Impact

Effect

Output

Outcome Impact

Effect

Input

ForesightActivities

Visioning

FramingFeedback

Planning

Acting Scanning

Forecasting

Input

ForesightActivities

Visioning

FramingFeedback

Planning

Acting Scanning

Forecasting

ForesightActivities

Visioning

FramingFeedback

Planning

Acting Scanning

Forecasting

Visioning

FramingFeedback

Planning

Acting Scanning

Forecasting

Effectiveness

BehaviouralAdditionality

Efficiency

Relevance & Appropriateness

Effectiveness

Effectiveness

BehaviouralAdditionalityBehaviouralAdditionality

EfficiencyEfficiency

Relevance & Appropriateness

Relevance & Appropriateness

Li, S-S, Kang, M-H, Lee, L-C, Developing the evaluation framework of technology foresight program: lesson learned from Europeancountries, Atlanta Conference on Science and Innovation Policy, Atlanta Conference on Science and Innovation Policy, 2009

Fellowship for Intellectual Exchange Program

Lukasz Nazarko, Foresight Impact on Innovation

10/16

Foresight Evaluaiton

Georghiou, L.,Evaluating Foresight and Lessons of its Future Impact

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11/16

• There is a fundamental shift in Japanese approach to technological development. The current paradigm requires the identification of social needs (including those on the global scale) and only then sets trajctories of innovation and technological advances that are supposed to help satisfy those needs.

• Athough Japan is a pioneer of foresight studies, it is European countries that have more experience in foresigt evaluation

Preliminary conslusions

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Lukasz Nazarko, Foresight Impact on Innovation

12/16

Preliminary conslusions

• Foresight as an approach to future anticipation and an instrument of policy support is often criticised for for its strong reliance on creativity (rather than on hard data) and for the difficulties in evaluating its actual efficiency, effectiveness and impact. It seems that those weaknesses of foresight are here to stay (at least partly). It doesn’t mean foresight is useless. It just says that but being aware of those limitations helps design and run the foresight process better.

Fellowship for Intellectual Exchange Program

Lukasz Nazarko, Foresight Impact on Innovation

13/16

Research aims - revisited

cognitive aim – critical analysis of the current body of knowledge in the field of relationship between foresight and innovation

methodological aim – identification of scales, indicators and parameters of the assessment of foresight impact on innovation

application aim – formulation of the criteria to compare Polish and Japanese foresight from the perspective of their impact on innovation

application aim – developing a set of recommendations for Polish foresight practitioners regarding the enhancement of foresight project impact on innovation, country’s innovation policy and the national innovation system.

�

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! application aim – formulation of the criteria to compare Polish and Japanese foresight from the perspective of their connection to the innovation policy

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Fellowship for Intellectual Exchange Program

Lukasz Nazarko, Foresight Impact on Innovation

14/16

Way forward

• Continue deepening knowledge about the phenomenon of innovation from various perspectives;

• Carry on studies on foresight evaluation

• Work on concrete criteria for Polish foresight evalation;

• Analyse further the connection between foresight, innovation and innovation policy;

• and… see slide 13

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Lukasz Nazarko, Foresight Impact on Innovation

15/16

Other results

• Networking (meeting a number of academics and public officers - with potential for further cooperation)

• Papers (1 completed, 1 in progress)

• Popularising foresight, University of Tokyo, Japan Foundation and Japan in general (blog: 1,625 hits)

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Lukasz Nazarko, Foresight Impact on Innovation

16/16

Thank you!

lnazarko.wordpress.com