foresight & open innovation at volkswagen - an approach
TRANSCRIPT
Foresight & Open Innovation at Volkswagen An approach: Combining the Scenario & Information Market Methods
Caroline V. Rudzinski, AutoUni – Volkswagen AG
2
FRAMING
Theoretical approach
and understanding
INSIGHTS
Volkswagen project
Interference Circle
3
STRATEGY
„the Frame“
INNOVATION
„the New“
Organization
(secure existence)
Short term Long term
Expectations
of the future
influence the
actuel decisions
(Backcasting)
Innovations
influence
the future.
Interdependence of Innovation Future Strategy
3D-Printer (Mass Customization)
Crowd Funding
Source: kickstarter
Connectivity
(Gamification)
Interference Circle
5
STRATEGY
„the Frame“
INNOVATION
„the New“
Organization
(secure existence)
Short term Long term
Expectations
of the future
influence the
actuel decisions
(Backcasting)
Innovations
influence
the future.
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“It is also about knowing where to look more
carefully for clues, how to interpret the weak
signals, and how to act when the signals are still
ambiguous.”
George S. Day & Paul J.H. Schoemaker
Strategic Foresight
Organizational challenges
7
“Most organizations lack sufficient capacity to detect, interpret and act on the
critically important but weak and ambiguous signals of fresh threats or new
opportunities that emerge on the periphery of their usual business
environment.”
George S. Day & Paul J.H. Schoemaker
8
Volkswagen Future Affairs & Trendtransfer: Supporting Strategy &
Innovation by Foresight
Competence of the AutoUni
9
Based on innovative methods and formats the AutoUni provides access to relevant knowledge in
cooperation with top level universities/institutions and experts worldwide.
Volkswagen Group
Knowledge generation
Knowledge transfer
Knowledge supply
Advisory
Board
(Experts)
Departe-
ment
Universities, technical
colleges and research
establishments
The approach: The Volkswagen Project
Interference Circle
11
INNOVATION
„the New“
STRATEGY
„the New“
Organization
(secure existence)
Short term Long term
Expectations
of the future
influence the
actuel decisions
(Backcasting)
Innovations
influence
the future.
Interference Circle
12
INNOVATION
„the New“
STRATEGY
„the New“
Organization
(secure existence)
Short term Long term
Oscillation
between the two
contrary poles
contributes to
ensure the
company's
survival
Different characteristics
Combination of the Wind Tunneling Approach with the Information Market
Method
„…knowing where to look…“:
Identifying relevant future fields
Wind Tunneling
Wisdom of the
crowd
can lead to better
estimations than
asking a single
person
Market
mechanism
aggregates
knowledge
efficiently
Infor-
mation
Markte
Information Market
„…how to act …“:
Aggregation and transparency of the
Wisdom of the crowd
+
= FOCUS = DIFFUSION
1. Phase: Creating four Scenarios
2. Phase: Identifying consistent strategic options by "Wind Tunneling"
approach
3. Phase: Identification of
promising fields for future innovation using
Open Innovation approach
4. Phase:
Decision on strategy and top innovations
Identifying relevant future fields and strategic options via the Wind
Tunneling approach
Plane: Own strategy
Tunnel: Environmental scenarios
Wind: Robustness check
(best fit strategies)
Identifying consistent strategic options by using scenario "Wind Tunneling"
Strategic options
Environmental scenarios
Key
Factors
Projections
Scenario 1
Consistent
strategic option
for scenario 1
Projections
Key
factors
Matching between scenarios and strategic options
Identification of consistent and robust strategy
Gap analysis for current strategy
Based on the results from the “Wind Tunneling phase”, relevant
future fields of innovation have been identified and via an Open
Innovation approach the “crowd” was invited to give their input.
The Open Innovation Approach: Information Markets
Process overview
Defining relevant questions
Idea generation & evaluation
Screening “Selection Board”
Top 10 ideas
Selection “Jury”
Winning idea(s)
The Open Innovation Approach: Information markets
Information markets effectively pool the “wisdom of the crowd” through a virtual “stock exchange”
Each participant may
bring his own idea(s)
to the market.
Each participant receives
play money and can “bet“
on good ideas.
The provider of top ideas,
comments and the best
traders will be rewarded.
Participants can
comment on ideas.
Outcome Strategic Options
Critical success factors were identified.
Identification of consistent and robust strategy.
All departments of the Group Research participated on the Information
Market.
Relevant strategic issues were placed across the organization.
The winning ideas are being further elaborated.
136 ideas, 250 comments and 2642 trades.
Information market: Knowledge is made transparent across departments
• New insights into complex issues.
• Access to otherwise unconsidered input.
• Possibility to easily localize experts with
relevant insights.
• Evaluation of the potential success of the implementation of
the ideas.
Information market encourages the innovative capacity of companies
Transaction data of the Information Markets.
Colors according organizational unit.
It enabled a
• structured and transparent, bottom-up
and top-down analysis,
• qualified discussion on different
consistent possible future strategies and
future innovations and
• it also provided the basis for identifying
white spots within the current research
agenda.
Combining the Strategic Foresight and Open Innovation approach is able
to generate strategic insights/value and to establish a long term
perspective on strategy, embedded within an iterative learning cycle on
strategy and innovation.
24
It is about anticipating future development,
by having a plan (strategy),
but also about knowing how to act (innovation)
Learning
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•Supported by top management.
•Allocated sufficient resource and capacity.
•Cross functional teams.
•Embedded with business units.
Organisational enablers
Futures thinking must be owned and adequately supported.
•Clear objectives.
•Sufficiently broad to generate new thinking.
•Accepting of multiple futures.
•Consultative: Internally and externally.
Prozess enablers
The process must be plural, engaging and focused.
•Make the process transparent
•Outputs tailored to be relevant to corporate strategy.
• Iterative.
• Integrated into planning process.
•Established audience.
Implementation enablers
The implementation must be strategic and sufficiently
embedded.
Combining Foresight and Open Innovation fosters a vigilant organizational
mind-set.
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It is characterized by
• the ability to “think outside the box” (peripheral vision)
• resources/capacity devoted to long-term strategy making
Defining a
consistence
strategy
Input of the crowd to
relevant
future fields
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Organization
30
XXX
Secure Existence.
The wisdom of the crowd – at Volkswagen
App my Ride Open idea contest for development of apps for car infotainment (2010):
385 ideas (from 104 persons), 96 apps (from 49 persons),
528 participants, 1991 evaluations, 1283 messages, 1448 comments
Idea contest “Think Blue. Ideas.” On the Think Blue internet platform people could contribute ideas that represent the
Think Blue philosophy and concern the issue of sustainability.
People’s Car Project Chinese internet users could bring their ideas about how a car of the future might look
via the “People‘s Car Project“ internet platform.
Information Market Employees of the Group Research were able to contribute ideas and comments to,
and evaluations of, strategically relevant questions.
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“The essence of strategy is
choosing what not to do. ”
Michael E. Porter
“Leaders establish the vision for the future and set the
strategy for getting there.”
John P. Kotter
“You’ve got to think about big things while
you’re doing small things, so that all the small
things go in the right direction.”
Alvin Toffler
Function of Strategy
Identifying relevant future fields an strategic options via the Wind
Tunneling approach
Plane: Own strategy
Tunnel: Environmental scenarios
Wind: Robustness check
(best fit strategies)
Der Wind Tunneling Ansatz als
dynamische Strategieentwicklung in
Abhängigkeit von zukünftig denkbaren
Umfeldentwicklungen:
Eigene Strategieoptionen –definiert durch
erfolgskritische Schlüsselfelder—werden
einem „Stresstest“ unterzogen.
Es wird überprüfen, wie das Unternehmen
für die möglichen Zukunftsentwicklungen
aufgestellt ist und ob an der Strategie ggf.
nachjustieren werden muss.
The Open Innovation Approach supports structures for a “Learning
Organization”
“Open Innovation means that valuable ideas can come from inside or outside
the company can go to market from inside or outside the company as well. This
approach places external ideas and external paths to market on the same level
of importance as that reserved for internal ideas and paths to market during the
Closed Innovation era.”
Henry Chesbrough
Caroline V. Rudzinski
The Open Innovation Approach supports structures for a “Learning
Organization”
“Open Innovation means that valuable ideas can come from inside or outside
the company can go to market from inside or outside the company as well. This
approach places external ideas and external paths to market on the same level
of importance as that reserved for internal ideas and paths to market during the
Closed Innovation era.”
Henry Chesbrough
Keep the organization „on the go“
in order to ensure progress:
Maintenance of routine
while opening up for new
things and questioning
existing options.
BUT:
What are the relevant (new)
fields/options to question?
The power of Open Innovation
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Crowd Sourcing 855
Personen
Quelle: Quirky
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