Introduction to Technology Foresight Introduction to Technology Foresight (TF)(TF)

A tool for strengthening National A tool for strengthening National System of InnovationSystem of Innovation

J. G. Shantha Siri

Technology Division

Objective of this presentation

OutlineOutline

Origin and evolution of TF Origin and evolution of TF

Introduction to TF Introduction to TF What ? What ? output/outcomeoutput/outcomewhy ?why ?

TF as a tool for strengthening National System of Innovation TF as a tool for strengthening National System of Innovation

Why it is relevant to Sri LankaWhy it is relevant to Sri Lanka

Lessons from other countriesLessons from other countries

1. Origin & Evolution1. Origin & Evolution 1950’s - 1950’s - Technology Forecasting, Delphi Technology Forecasting, Delphi

technique by technique by US DoDUS DoD 1980s - 1980s - US –TF to short listed critical technologiesUS –TF to short listed critical technologies

Netherlands, TF by Ministry of Economic Affaires Netherlands, TF by Ministry of Economic Affaires 1990 - 1990 - Germany - Identified list of 100 emerging Germany - Identified list of 100 emerging

technologiestechnologies 1994 - 1994 - France, Ministry of Industry – Identify Key France, Ministry of Industry – Identify Key

technologiestechnologies

1970 - 1970 - Japan Pioneering in TF over 30 yearsJapan Pioneering in TF over 30 years

At presentAt present

Thailand, Malaysia, South Korea and many more Thailand, Malaysia, South Korea and many more

2. Introduction2. Introduction Definitions:Definitions:

1. Foresight involves systematic attempts to look into the 1. Foresight involves systematic attempts to look into the future of future of science, technology, the economy and societyscience, technology, the economy and society, with a view to identifying , with a view to identifying emerging generic technologies and the underpinning areas of emerging generic technologies and the underpinning areas of strategic strategic researchresearch likely to yield the likely to yield the greatest economic, social and environmental greatest economic, social and environmental benefit".benefit".

(APEC Centre for Technology Foresight, Thailand)(APEC Centre for Technology Foresight, Thailand)

2. 2. Technology Foresight is the systematic study of trends in science, technology, the economy and society with the purpose of determining the fields of strategic research and developing generic technologies which would provide the most significant economic and social benefits.

Grupp, Hariolf, Linstone, Harold A, 1999

A

B

Target

Technology Foresight helps;Technology Foresight helps;

To look ahead and consider the role that may be To look ahead and consider the role that may be required of Science & Technology in the Futurerequired of Science & Technology in the Future

It involves the consideration of a range of It involves the consideration of a range of possible futures instead of a single one possible futures instead of a single one

Try to maintain the balance between the S & T Try to maintain the balance between the S & T push and the market pull push and the market pull

Meaningful participation of stakeholders in Meaningful participation of stakeholders in decision-making processes.decision-making processes.

Phases of TFPhases of TF

Pre-Foresight Pre-Foresight Identify experts & sectorsIdentify experts & sectors

Main ForesightMain ForesightSituational analysis, workshops, consult expert Situational analysis, workshops, consult expert panel , Delphi surveypanel , Delphi survey

Post ForesightPost ForesightInfluence government R&D priorities/industry Influence government R&D priorities/industry R&D strategies/technology road mapsR&D strategies/technology road maps

Different Levels of TFDifferent Levels of TF

Macro-level – Among ministries/departmentsMacro-level – Among ministries/departments

Meso-level- Group of companiesMeso-level- Group of companies

Micro-level – Individual company/institutionMicro-level – Individual company/institution

Output/outcomes of TF

Vacuum tubes

Transistor

ICs

How many transistors in a Pentium IV Desktop

(3 – 3.8 GHz) ?

Quantum computation /Molecular computing

Output of TF is represent by six Cs

• CommunicationCommunication

• ConcentrationConcentration

• CoordinationCoordination

• ConsensusConsensus

• CommitmentCommitment

• ComprehensionComprehension

TF FacilitatesTF Facilitates

Knowledge synthesizing and refiningKnowledge synthesizing and refining

Effective knowledge disseminationEffective knowledge dissemination

Enhanced learningEnhanced learning

Greater capacity for innovatingGreater capacity for innovating

Inputs for the formulation of technology policies Inputs for the formulation of technology policies and strategies and strategies

Why TFWhy TF

There is a belief that it is possible to shape the future There is a belief that it is possible to shape the future rather than simply prepare for a future.rather than simply prepare for a future.

Successful exploitation of technology has become critical Successful exploitation of technology has become critical in achieving economic competitivenessin achieving economic competitiveness

A prioritized strategic R & D is essential since limited A prioritized strategic R & D is essential since limited R&D budgets R&D budgets

Population is increasing, resources are depleting. Population is increasing, resources are depleting. Demanding a better quality of lifeDemanding a better quality of life

In the globalization, not only free flow of human and In the globalization, not only free flow of human and money but pandemics, technology (FDI), economic money but pandemics, technology (FDI), economic downturns, irregular weather patterns, environmental downturns, irregular weather patterns, environmental pollution across continents pollution across continents

To cope with these changes, our Science & Technology To cope with these changes, our Science & Technology systems should be able to respond by adapting existing systems should be able to respond by adapting existing technologies or developing and applying new ones technologies or developing and applying new ones

Because technology by itself does not work; it needs to Because technology by itself does not work; it needs to be integrated with other parts like the economy, the be integrated with other parts like the economy, the environment and society. environment and society.

Increasing Competition – global marketIncreasing Competition – global market

Increasing Constraint – R&D BudgetsIncreasing Constraint – R&D Budgets

Increasing Complexity –S&T, economy, politics, Increasing Complexity –S&T, economy, politics, culture, environmentculture, environment

Increasing Competencies – Scientific & Increasing Competencies – Scientific & technological technological

Global driving forces that challenge S & T Policy

3. TF as a tool for strengthening National 3. TF as a tool for strengthening National System of InnovationSystem of Innovation

National system of Innovation –More emphasis on National system of Innovation –More emphasis on linkageslinkages

Innovations are characterised by technology Innovations are characterised by technology confluenceconfluence

and fusion which needand fusion which need

Multi-disciplinary fields/institutional effortsMulti-disciplinary fields/institutional efforts Networks/partnershipsNetworks/partnerships Systemic policiesSystemic policies Effective learning mechanismsEffective learning mechanisms S & T S & T TacitTacit knowledge transfer knowledge transfer

Technology Foresight provides support to innovation, Technology Foresight provides support to innovation, and incentives and assistance to enterprises in; and incentives and assistance to enterprises in;

technology management technology management

technology transfertechnology transfer

leading to enhanced competitiveness and leading to enhanced competitiveness and growth.growth.

4. Why it is relevant to Sri Lanka 4. Why it is relevant to Sri Lanka

Fall behind in the international technology race and Fall behind in the international technology race and lose ability to compete internationallylose ability to compete internationally

To identify technologies which will be decisive for To identify technologies which will be decisive for future competitiveness future competitiveness

Prompted by ever-tighter public R&D budgetsPrompted by ever-tighter public R&D budgets Establish priorities in research and technology policy. Establish priorities in research and technology policy. Time of signaling a socio-political stability of the Time of signaling a socio-political stability of the

countrycountry Many scientists and experts from industry and the Many scientists and experts from industry and the

administration as possible, together with administration as possible, together with representatives of other societal groups.representatives of other societal groups.

Public-private partnershipsPublic-private partnerships

5. Lessons from other countries5. Lessons from other countries

The Korea (NIC) has used technology foresight over the past The Korea (NIC) has used technology foresight over the past three decades and at present, the country is using it in, three decades and at present, the country is using it in,

Prioritizing research areasPrioritizing research areas

R&D resource allocation andR&D resource allocation and

Science and Technology policy making.Science and Technology policy making.

Korea

National technology foresight, 2003 - 2004 KoreaKorea

Technology Foresight Centre, KISTEP Future prospects of Korean society up to Year 2030 Future demands and needs of general public Technology subjects by technical panelsTotal 761 future technology subjects were Delphi-surveyed

realization time technical level and gapstrategic importance obstacle to overcome

National Science & Technology Council Total 21 technology areas

impact on the quality of lifeeconomic growthpublic needs

Government master plan overall priority-setting R&D program in Korea

ThailandThailand

Thailand in 1997 – Severe financial crisisThailand in 1997 – Severe financial crisis

Today a NICToday a NIC

More emphasis on TF to overcome the crisis More emphasis on TF to overcome the crisis through technological developmentthrough technological development

““Hospital of the Future” - Bumrungrad International Hospital of the Future” - Bumrungrad International HospitalHospital

International healthcare accreditation International healthcare accreditation Integrated hospital information system Integrated hospital information system

(Administrative, financial and clinical) (Administrative, financial and clinical) Electronic medical records and digital radiology Electronic medical records and digital radiology

systems systems System is a key to achieving rapid scheduling of System is a key to achieving rapid scheduling of

services and efficient use of resources services and efficient use of resources Eliminates paper and waiting time Eliminates paper and waiting time Robotic” technology maximizes both safety and Robotic” technology maximizes both safety and

efficiency. efficiency. Medications selected and delivered in a way that Medications selected and delivered in a way that

drastically reduces the potential for medication drastically reduces the potential for medication errors. errors.

It's not in the US; it's not even in Europe--it's in Thailand

JapanJapan

The success of Japan's technology development is The success of Japan's technology development is attributed to comprehensive technological attributed to comprehensive technological forecasting studies which were conducted in the forecasting studies which were conducted in the 1960s. 1960s.

Kuwahara, Terutaka,1999 Technological Kuwahara, Terutaka,1999 Technological Forecasting & Social ChangeForecasting & Social Change

Technological change and the Technological change and the economic growtheconomic growth

Rank  Rank   Country  Country   GDP (millions of GDP (millions of USD)USD)

     European UnionEuropean Union 18,394,11518,394,115

11 USUS 14,264,600 14,264,600 22 JapanJapan 4,923,7614,923,76133 People's Republic People's Republic

of Chinaof China 4,401,614 4,401,614 15 15 South Korea South Korea 947,010947,0103535 Thailand Thailand 273,248273,24878 78 Sri Lanka Sri Lanka 39,60439,604

List by IMF 2008List by IMF 2008

Indian Industry’s Sohrabji Godrej Green Business Centre — Hyderabad, India

Greenest Building in the World

•Two 45-foot wind towers and screen walls air pre-cooled by 10 degrees to the air-conditioning system, -Venturi effect’

• Photovoltaic panels built into- takes care of 20% of the building’s annual energy requirements

• Electrical fixtures have been automated

• Building does not require any artificial lighting during the day because its circular design allows sunlight to reach every part of it

• Construction materials - that were, were recycled and eco-friendly ( broken mosaic tiles, steel, wood, glass, fly ash brick).

Thank you