sectoral innovation foresight€¦ · sectoral innovation foresight interim report – electrical...

Sectoral Innovation Foresight Electrical and optical equipment

Interim Report

Tijs van den Broek (TNO) Annelieke van der Giessen (TNO) Martijn Poel (TNO) July 2009

A Europe INNOVA Initiative

2008-2010

This publication is financed under the Competitiveness and Innovation Framework Programme (CIP) which aims to encourage the competitiveness of European enterprises.

Acknowledgements We would like to thank Patrick de Jager and Bart Snijders, both from TNO, for their useful contribution to this report.

Table of contents 1 Introduction............................................................................................................ 1 2 Current situation.................................................................................................... 3 2.1 Statistical definition (NACE) .......................................................................................3 2.2 Characterization.........................................................................................................4 2.3 Current sectoral innovation challenges and trends ....................................................6 3 Drivers of innovation and change ........................................................................ 8 3.1 Science and Technology drivers ................................................................................8 3.2 Demand-side drivers ................................................................................................15 4 Emerging innovation themes and their requirements...................................... 21 4.1 New products, processes, technological trajectories ...............................................21 4.2 Firm strategies and organisational change ..............................................................29 5 Institutional and structural co-developments and implications...................... 32 5.1 Skills requirements and the knowledge base ...........................................................32 5.2 Institutional change ..................................................................................................34 5.3 Structural change.....................................................................................................36 6 First elements of scenarios ................................................................................ 37 7 Key questions ...................................................................................................... 40 References .................................................................................................................. 42

Europe INNOVA Innovation Watch

1 Introduction

This interim report is part of Task 2 (Sectoral Innovation Foresight) of the Europe INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch (SIW) project. The aim of the report is to introduce first findings on possible future developments in the sector under study. Particular emphasis is put on the one hand on future changes that are likely to significantly influence the evolution and emergence of innovation activities and associated markets, and on developments that are likely to be of cross-sectoral relevance to innovation on the other. Sectoral innovation foresight thus complements Task 1 of the SIW project, which analyzes current sectoral innovation performance. The main objectives of Task 2 can be summarised as follows:

• Explore and identify the main drivers of change in the nine sectors. These drivers will be both internal and external to the sectors, with several of them being of a cross-cutting nature.

• Identify and assess key future developments in the nine sectors as well as in terms of cross-cutting developments. The emphasis is put on likely future innovation themes and emerging markets, more specifically also on the requirements and impacts they raise in terms of skills requirements, organisational, institutional and structural changes in the sectors concerned.

• Develop scenario sketches for the sectors under study. • Highlight key policy issues for the future, with a view to enhancing the innovation

performance and competitiveness of firms operating in these sectors. • Stimulate debate and contribute to the creation of expert networks, based on the

participatory elements of this task. The time horizon of these foresight papers is five to ten years (2015-2020), depending on the specific characteristics and the pace of change in the respective sectors. The electrical and optical equipment sector has comparatively short innovation cycles. Therefore the time horizon considered for this sector tends to be shorter than in some other sectors (like e.g. Aeronautics and Space, Construction, which are characterized by rather long innovation cycles). This Interim Report is based on a review of available foresight material on the textiles and clothing sector. Together with the corresponding report on the eight other sectors addressed by the SIW project (aeronautics and space, automotive, biotechnology, construction, food and beverage, knowledge-intensive business services, wholesale and retail trade), it serves as background material for a first expert and stakeholder workshop (June 2009). The report concentrates on drivers and innovation themes, but provides already some first findings and thoughts on emerging markets, requirements and future scenarios, i.e. as far as these issues can be derived from the review work. The first workshop aims on the one hand at reviewing the interim findings and on the other at exploring future scenarios of the sector in an interactive mode. The results of this first workshop and some further interviews with experts and stakeholders will then be incorporated in a draft final report that will serve as input to a second foresight workshop (November 2009). This second workshop will focus on the main policy issues that arise from the exploratory scenarios, both within the individual sectors and at their intersection. The final report will bring together in a consistent form the results generated in the different phases of the foresight exercise, i.e. will be based on revised and amended versions of the initial chapters of this interim report and additional chapters dealing with refined scenarios, future requirements and policy issues.

Sectoral Innovation Foresight Interim Report – Electrical and optical Equipment 1


The interim results are presented in six chapters, starting with a situational analysis where the sector stands today to contextualize possible future developments (Chapter 2). Building on this context, Science & Technology (S&T) and demand drivers will be outlined (Chapter 3), as a basis for discussing emerging innovation themes (Chapter 4). These are expected developments resulting from the interaction of supply (technological advances) and demand (societal / customer needs) forces. In this chapter, implications of these innovation themes at firm level will also be addressed. Institutional and structural requirements and implications of the innovation themes for the sector will be highlighted in Chapter 5. This is complemented with first scenario sketches (Chapter 6) and some key questions to be addressed in the remainder of the Sectoral Innovation foresight task (Chapter 7).



2 Current situation

2.1 Statistical definition (NACE)

The Electrical and Optical (E&O) Equipment Sector includes “manufacturers of a diverse range of goods that can be classified as either being consumer goods (for example, telephones, radios, televisions and watches), capital goods (for example, computers and transmission equipment) or intermediate goods (for example, electronic components such as conductors and wiring) that are used by other sectors of the economy” (Eurostat, 2008). Four subsectors are discerned in Eurostat’s European Business: facts and figures 2007 edition (Eurostat, 2008):

• Computers and office equipment • Electrical machinery and equipment • Radio, TV & communication equipment (electronics), which includes i.e. the semi-

conductor industry • Instrument engineering.

Three subsectors (1) Instrument engineering, (2) Computers and Office equipment and (3) electronics belong to High Technology industry (Eurostat, 2008) and show very high innovation intensity (Peneder, 2008). Electrical machinery and equipment sector is typically part of the Medium High Technology industry and show High innovation intensity (Peneder, 2008). So, the Electrical and Optical Equipment Sector is on average a High Technology industry. Statistically, the sector encompasses four NACE groups in the Eurostat databases:

• Manufacturers of office machinery and computers (NACE group 30) • Manufacturers of electrical machinery and apparatus (NACE group 31) • Manufacturers of radio, television and communication equipment and apparatus

(NACE group 32) • Manufacturers of medical, precision and optical instruments, watches and clocks

(NACE group 33). Although statistically a division can be made between the various subsectors in the Electrical and Optical Equipment Sector, in practice innovations are increasingly the result of converging technologies and converging subsectors. Robotics is for example the combination of electronics, optics and mechanics. In addition, the division between equipment on the one hand and software and services on the other hand is becoming rather artificial as the functional divide between both categories is not so clear anymore. Software can take over functions from hardware and software is increasingly embedded in hardware. An example is the High Definition Television, which is mainly based on embedded software. It is also reflected in the transition from products as solutions towards systems and services as solutions.



2.2 Characterization

Classification

The Electrical and Optical Equipment Sector has both characteristics of a science-based and a specialised suppliers sector (Pavitt, 1984). On one hand, the subsectors “Office & Computer” and “Electronics” are generally science-based sectors, which are characterized by a high rate of product and process innovations, internal R&D and scientific research (See also Malerba, 2004). As these sectors are highly knowledge-intensive and innovation is key to compete in the sector, intellectual property is protected by various types of means, such as short lead-times, patents, trademarks, product complexity and secrecy (Wintjes & Dunnewijk, 2008). On the other hand, the sub sectors “Electrical Machinery” and “Optical Equipment” have characteristics of specialised supplier sectors that produce equipment for other industries. In specialised supplier sectors, innovation is strongly user-oriented, focusing on performance improvement, reliability and customization. Engineering skills and profound knowledge of the users, obtained by user-supplier interaction, are important sources for innovation. Patents, local knowledge, i.e. of the users, and the interactive nature of this knowledge are important means of appropriation. Pavitt’s (1984) taxonomy does not apply strictly and static: i.e. scientific research is very important for the Optical equipment subsector and the Electronics subsector is getting more user-centred (FISTERA, 2005). Furthermore, large manufacturers, like Siemens, IBM and HP, increasingly integrate their products with services (European Commission, 2006a).

General Purpose Technology

The Electrical and Optical Equipment Sector, and more narrowly defined ICT manufacturing, produce typically a General Purpose Technology (GPT) and is a net source for other sectors (Scherer, 1982; Robson et al, 1988; Malerba, 2004; Guerrieri et al., 2006). Hence, the E&O Equipment sector has an impact on the whole economy: it drives product, process and organisational innovation and indirectly boosts productivity and service quality (Guerrieri et al; 2006; ICT2020). Sectors that depend on high-technology input from the E&O Equipment Sector are i.e. mechanical engineering, transport, health, chemicals, Aerospace and ICT services. Key elements of GPT sectors are pervasiveness (like electronic circuits), technological dynamism (manifested in short lead-times) and innovation complementarities with other forms of technological progress (Guerrieri et al, 2006). Indicative figures on the global semiconductor market, provided by industry association SEMI (Semiconductor Euipment and Materials International), illustrate the role of this sector as a technology enabler: the global semiconductor industry represented 176 billion EUR worldwide in 2008, which enabled 1082 billion EUR in electronics systems business and approximately 3448 billion EUR in services. Figure 2.1 shows a rough estimation of the economic impact of the Semiconductor and electronics sector.



Figure 2.1 Rough estimation of the economic impact

Source: SEMI, 2009 ICT hardware evolved towards a GPT over the past century. During the years, ICT components shrunk from the size of a mainframe computer to chips on nano scale. This miniaturization enables the wide range application of ICT components. As figure 2.2 shows, it was almost impossible to integrate mobile phone technologies in cars early 19th century. Nowadays, cars cannot drive without electronics. The section on Science & Technology drivers will further outline this process. An implication of ICT as a GPT is the broad orientation of demand trends, outlined in section 3.2; products of the Electrical & Optical Equipment Sector are applied almost everywhere: from healthcare to security. Figure 2.2 An ancient car phone.



2.3 Current sectoral innovation challenges and trends

This section briefly discusses current trends on barriers and drivers in the Electrical and Optical equipment sector that were found in Task 1 of the INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch. These barriers and drivers are the context for the sectoral foresight in this report.

Challenges

• Weak international position of the European ICT manufacturers (Wintjes & Dunnewijk, 2008; ELECTRA, 2008; ESIA, 2006; European Commission, 2006a): As mentioned above, the trade deficit on ICT manufacturing goods is enormous. The sector has clearly competitive disadvantages with manufacturers in Asia & USA. According to the Competitiveness Report 2006 (European Commission, 2006a), this does not count only for standardised products, but also for innovative products Europe should lead in. Several sources report that manufacturers in Asia & USA have higher productivity, net income and R&D expenditure. For example, between 1990 and 2002 the combined share of EU-15, Japan and USA decreased with 20 percent points: from 80% to 60%, in which China had large share (OECD, 2005).

• Defragmented regulation (Wintjes & Dunnewijk, 2008; EITO, 2007; ELECTRA,

2008; European Commission, 2006b). According to many sources, harmonisation of European ICT standards (such as spectrum) and standardisation processes (van Eecke et al, 2007), (single market) regulation and market surveillance on unsafe products still lags behind. Market surveillance is both needed on the internal market and at the border of the European Union (ELECTRA, 2008). Intellectual Property Regulation protects European firms from trademark piracy, counterfeiting and other attacks on intellectual property, but regulation is highly dependent on respect and enforcement of intellectual property regulation in emerging economies. (ELECTRA, 2008).

• ICT research (see i.e. EITO, 2007; Wintjes & Dunnewijk, 2008, ESIA, 2006). ICT research is an important driver for innovation (i.e. Wintjes & Dunnewijk 2008). Unfortunately, several sources report that European ICT research lacks coordination, cooperation, transfer to businesses and funding. For example, coordination should reduce overlap in national research programmes. European Technology platforms, Joint Technology Initatiatives and joint national programmes aim at the rise of European centres of excellence, such as the European Institute of Technology. In the European Semiconductor industry, R&D programmes and co-operation falls short of a coherent and consistent concept for stimulating R&D investment (ESIA, 2006).

• R&D investment by SMEs (Wintjes & Dunnewijk, 2008; ELECTRA, 2008; EITO,

2007). Although innovative SMEs are essential for innovation in the ICT manufacturing sector, most R&D investments are undertaken by large companies rather than by SMEs. For example, IDC/MERIT (2007) found that only 42% of the SMEs in the ICT sector (which corresponds to the computer and electronics subsector) invest more than 5 percent of turnover to R&D. Difficulties arise for SMEs when raising funds for R&D investments or applying for a patent, which is often very complex and time-consuming (Wintjes & Dunnewijk, 2008).



• Human resources and Skills (Wintjes & Dunnewijk, 2008; EITO, 2007; European Commission, 2006a; European Commission, 2006b; Eucomed, 2007). A lack in highly skilled and educated human resources can slow down innovation in the E&O Equipment Sector. Among the skills, that are mentioned as needed, are: engineering, science, technology management, project management and business management. Specifically, strong academic skills and knowledge on core engineering studies is needed. A more specific example arises in the Optical subsector, in which there is a huge shortage of medical engineers, such as medical Informatics specialists (Eucomed, 2007).

Trends

• Globalisation: the sector has a maximum exposure to fierce international

competition, which increases the pressure on the sector to innovate, especially in lead markets. However, globalization is not only competition: European enterprises can cooperate with the rest of the world to increase their scale and reduce production costs. As countries like India and China are developing their knowledge position, globalization gives the opportunity to cooperate on R&D on a worldwide scale. In this sense, European countries can make use of a worldwide network of expertise, skills, research infrastructures and resources.

• Open innovation: cooperation with different stakeholders, such as users (both end-

users and downstream sectors), research institutes (such as the European Institute of Technology), public and private sector, is important for innovation in the Electrical and Optical Equipment Sector. Apart from the importance of regional clusters of innovation, Europe should bundle and scale-up all the efforts on a European level (i.e. with centres of excellence) to ensure coordination and effective cooperation between clusters. Important is to know how innovation takes place in the clusters and between the clusters. How should we design our innovation process in the Electrical and Optical Equipment Sector to tackle challenges such as globalisation? Accessibility of R&D should be ensured for SMEs.

• Eco-innovation: the global challenge to reach the Kyoto priorities places a great

responsibility on the Electrical and Optical Equipment Sector. Apart from making the sectors itself more energy efficient, ICT as a General Purpose Technology should enable intelligent technology that can help us to make our environment, such as buildings, transport and power distribution, more energy efficient. Additionally, intelligent technology, i.e. in the process automation within industrial sectors, can boost productivity along energy efficiency.

• Lead markets and emerging technologies: in order to become leading in

technological domains, the Electrical and Optical Equipment Sector has to focus on certain lead markets & emerging technologies, which are highly linked to societal challenges: ageing, mobility, living, energy scarcity, productivity and health. This means that the sector gets more interwoven with downstream sectors, in which ICT is everywhere: technologies will increasingly converge; get more embedded in our daily life, connected, intelligent and rich of experience.



3 Drivers of innovation and change

3.1 Science and Technology drivers

Introduction

This section aims at giving an overview of the most important Science & Technology (S&T) drivers in the Electrical & Optical Equipment Sector. Most drivers are cross-subsector (e.g. optical, electronics, electrical machinery, etc.) and are not exclusive for this sector (e.g. miniaturization). Science & Technology drivers in the Electrical & Optical Equipment Sector can be distinguished on two phases of the value chain:

1. The production side of electrical and optical equipment, which encompasses materials, machinery and the production of equipment (e.g. semiconductors).

2. The application phase of electrical and optical equipment, which encompasses integration, hardware, software and services.

Figure 3.1 shows an example of this distinction in the semiconductor industry: on the production side, materials and equipment are input into the production of circuits by integrated device manufacturers (IDM). Their products are the building blocks for hardware, which function as platforms for software and services. Figure 3.1 Value chain of the semiconductor industry (based on Rieppo, 2005 and ESIA, 2006)

Materials

Equipment

+ IDM Hardw.Softw.

Services

+

ApplicationProduction

Value chain

The S&T drivers on the production and application side enable each other. Additionally, the S&T drivers on both the production and application side are in their turn influenced by demand drivers (section 3.2). The next sections describe the S&T trends on the production and application side. Table 3.1 gives an overview of the S&T drivers that will be discussed in the next paragraphs.



Table 3.1 Overview of S&T drivers on production and application side Production S&T drivers Application S&T drivers Miniaturization Ubiquitous connectivity Moore’s law Embedded Disk law Intelligent Butter’s law Rich and sensitised interaction Metcalfe’s law Community’s law Flexibility in shape Integration

Science & Technology drivers on the production side

There are several ‘fixed’ technology laws on the production side of the Electrical & Optical Equipment Sector (Singapore Foresight, 2007). These laws are of the current Information & Communication Technology Techno-Economic paradigm (Perez, 2002) and are apparent since the seventies.

• Moore’s law: the processing power of microelectronics doubles approximately every 18-24 months.

• Disk law: the amount of storage capacity doubles every 9 months. • Butters’ or Fibre law: the data coming out of a fibre cable doubles every 9

months • Metcalfe’s law: the value of a network increases by the square of the number of

devices connected to the network. • Community’s law: content of a community increases by 2number of members.

These laws imply the miniaturization of technology, as micro- and nano-electronics or fibre optics need to become smaller to increase power and capacity. The number of devices is rapidly increasing as well. Figure 3.2 shows the trend line of miniaturization and the increasing number of devices on logarithmic scales. The huge mainframe computers from the seventies evolve towards a System in Package (SiP) chips, in which all chips are packed on each other, and a Push-Pin.



Figure 3.2 Trend line of decreasing volume and increasing number of devices.

Main-Frame 1970 Mini

1979

PC-AT 1984 Pentium

1992Notebk 1997

PDA 2001

S-i-P 2010 Push-Pin 2020

02468

1012

0 5 10 15

Log 10 (Amount of devices)5 = 100K, 10=10B

Log

10 (V

olum

e (h

xbxl

) mm

3)

The computer to man ratio will change dramatically: in 1980 there were 200 users for every (mainframe) computer; it is estimated that in 2020 every user is surrounded by 200 embedded, wireless devices. The process of miniaturization does not solely appear in the domain of microelectronics, but also in telecommunications, nanotechnology and the optical industry. Advancements in miniaturization are adopted in technology roadmaps, e.g. the ITRS roadmaps for the semiconductor industry, setting the pace for research and development in the industry. As these technology laws are not new and mentioned already for decades now, an important question is whether and when these technology laws can come to an end and what will be really cause breakthroughs. For example, Moore’s Law dominated the process technology in semiconductors for decades, but as soon as the boundaries of physical ability or economic feasibility are achieved, this law may end then. Moore’s Law will increasingly be combined with “More than Moore”. “More than Moore” reflects the development of technologies and applications that go beyond the boundaries of conventional semiconductors. Driven by consumer and society needs, “More than Moore” leads to the development of High Value Systems, which combines digital System-on-Chips with non-digital System-in-packages. Material science is another driver on the production side: electrical and optical equipment is getting more diverse in appearance. Figure 3.3 gives an example; it will be possible to produce intelligent systems on foil.



Figure 3.3 Systems in Foil

Optics will further adapt to different shapes and electrical equipment can become more flexible, organic, flat, etc. The ability to integrate electrical and optical equipment into other materials relates to the embedded driver, which will be discussed in section 3.1.3. Last, integration of science domains like mechanics, optical science and electrical engineering will push forward the integration of optics, electronics and machinery (e.g. optoelectronics, mechatronics or even opto-mechatronics). This integration enables new applications.

Science & Technology drivers on the application side

The production drivers mentioned above highly influence the possibilities to apply technology. On the application side of the Electrical and Optical Equipment Sector, four main S&T drivers can be identified (FISTERA, 2006; FMER, 2007; IDA, 2005; IPTS, 2008; ISTAG, 2006; Wintjes et al, 2008):

• Ubiquitous connectivity: networks and the Internet will become omnipresent. • Embedded: electrical and optical equipment will disappear in our daily environment. • Intelligent: electronics are becoming more autonomous. • Rich and sensitised interaction: electronics will interact in a more content-rich,

interactive and experiential way. Ubiquitous connectivity By 2015, it is estimated that the world is covered by a network of optical fibre, with broadband capacity, connected to low-cost wireless access nodes enabling anywhere, anytime connectivity (Singapore ICT foresight 2007). Networks and the internet will become ubiquitous in their connectivity and access offering true mobility. They will no longer require users to make a distinction between fixed and mobile network access and availability (ISTAG, 2006). Important trends behind ubiquitous connectivity are: (1) the rapid increase in the bandwidth of optical cables (see Butter’s or Fibre’s law) and (2) the rapid increase in wireless networks (FISTERA, 2006; ISTAG, 2006). These advancements enable an ‘exaflood’ of data collected and aggregated (IPTS, 2008). There are technical prerequisites for ubiquitous connectivity. Current and future research focus on the development of reliable and robust networks, architecture (e.g. Peer-to-peer technology) to diminish delays in communication, new standards (IPv6), seamless roaming, security technologies that can cope with increased technological complexity and privacy enhancing technologies (ISTAG, 2006; FMER, 2007).



In the not too distant future, it can be expected that a single numbering scheme, such as IPv6, will make every single object identifiable and addressable. Together with the embedded driver, ubiquitous connectivity is an important precondition for ‘the Internet of things’, which links daily objects in a wireless and self-configuring network using RFID technology. Smart components, embedded with RFID technology, will be able to execute different set of actions, according to their surroundings and the tasks they are designed for. Devices will be able to direct their mobility, adapt to their respective environments, configure, maintain and repair themselves and eventually play an active role in their own disposal (IPTS, 2008). Embedded According to IDA (2005) and FISTERA (2005), embedding electronics in our environment will make ICT invisible and lead to the complete disappearance of the Personal Computer as we know it today. There are three main drivers behind the embedding of electronics:

• Miniaturisation increases process power, storage capacity and lowers energy consumption, enabling more advanced and integrated systems (e.g. for science & technology purposes).

• The number of electronic devices is increasing rapidly (as described in section 3.1). • Convergence of Biotechnology, Nanotechnology, Information technology and

Cognitive sciences (BNIC) enables integrating electrical and optical equipment in other materials (e.g. textiles) and take different forms (e.g. flexible or ultra thin). An example is Organic LED for displays.

This intelligence can be embedded in all kinds of products: cars, buildings, energy networks, house appliances, etc. Such an environment allows an invisible technical infrastructure for human action (IPTS 2003, Nordman, 2004; FMER, 2007). Technologies such as low-cost sensors, sensor and actuator networks and RFID enable data collection and control across massively distributed systems (e.g. autonomous sensor networks). Linking these sensors to geographical information (by e.g. GPS or ‘geotagging’) makes it easier to track all kinds of objects. Embedding electronics in the environment, e.g. with wet-hard interfaces (ISTAG, 2006), enable intuitive interfaces in the daily environment (e.g. wearable computing, personal devices) and even the human body: nanotechnology and converging technologies can have far reaching perspectives for the human body. Some examples are the extension of human sensory abilities, expanding brain functions through technical aids and even the implants for identification and security purposes (ISTAG, 2006; Grunwald, 2007). The driver embeddedness (with the enabler miniaturisation) enables many new applications, which will be discussed in Chapter 4. Intelligent Electrical and optical equipment will become more intelligent in the near future (ISTAG, 2006). Two factors will add up to this important S&T driver (FMER, 2007; Grunwald, 2007; ISTAG, 2006). First, electrical and optical equipment will become more sophisticated, both in computational power and visual form. Second, there are advancements in artificial intelligence. Artificial intelligence, which is the combination of ICT and cognitive sciences, will increase autonomy of electrical and optical equipment.



Apart from raw processing power and storage, intelligent systems will use an array of cognitive functions that make them much more adaptive to impulses from their environment (FMER, 2007). These cognitive functions include e.g. (Grunwald, 2007; IDA, 2005; ISTAG, 2006):

• Cognitive vision • Speech recognition • Learning and self-reflection • Context-sensitivity and affective computing (understanding emotions).

We will increasingly depend on technology. Intelligent devices will be diffused everywhere and will be more in control, as they take over daily processes (e.g. monitoring your health). Failure of technology will decrease due to more intelligence: artificial intelligence enable robust, secure and reliable systems that are capable of self-organizing or self-assembling. Self-organizing and self-assebling means that these systems can configure, test, maintain, repair and even dispose their selves, while keeping out any human factor (IPTS, 2003; IPTS, 2008; ISTAG, 2006). In conjunction with the embeddedness driver, intelligence will enable ambient intelligence. Advancements in artificial intelligence (in combination with other drivers) will allow the surrounding of people by intelligent intuitive interfaces that are unobtrusively hidden in all kinds of objects and an environment that will evolve from interactive to proactive towards its users (IPTS, 2003). An example of artificial intelligence is the intelligent car, which is able to interact with the user, its parts, other cars and the traffic infrastructure (FMER, 2007). The Internet and communication between businesses will gain from this driver. Increased “understanding” of information by ICT will enable a semantic Internet in the near future, which allows direct and real-time communication between computers (IDA, 2005). Intelligence as a driver will meet the demand for more user-friendly and personalised technology (ISTAG, 2006; IPTS, 2003; IPTS, 2008). Rich interaction The intelligence driver in the previous paragraph focused on adaptation to environment. This paragraph will focus on the feedback from systems towards the user. In the near future, interaction with technology will be much more content-rich, interactive and experiential (ISTAG, 2006). The convergence of Nanotechnology, Biotechnology, Information technology and Cognitive sciences (NBIC) allows technology and users to interact in a more human way (e.g. haptic or by speech) (ISTAG 2006). Sensitised computing will give electrical and optical equipment the ability to feel like human senses (FMER, 2007; IDA, 2005). Applications of electrical and optical equipment will be able to “see”, “talk”, “smell”, “feel” and even sense the emotions of users (e.g. shadowing: monitoring personal exchange of information daily). Sensitised computing allows the developments of more human interfaces that are far more intuitive than current interfaces (e.g. embedding voice dialogue systems in cars or language tutor systems). On the longer term, sensitised robots can be available (FMER, 2007; IDA, 2005). Another development in rich interaction is richness in visualisation. Visual displays in all kinds of environments will rapidly advance particularly due to developments in the optical industry (FISTERA, 2005; eGovRTD2020, 2006; FMER, 2007; ISTAG, 2006):

• Resolution of displays will keep improving • New displays for mobile environments will be developed • Flexible displays for e.g. large areas will be developed



• Three dimensional displays (even for mobile phone) • Holographic technologies.

Finally, sensitised and augmented computing can help patients to restore lost human body’s natural capabilities (e.g. sight, etc.).

S&T drivers in ICT challenges of the Seventh Framework Programme

Table 3.2 gives an overview of the seven ICT challenges in the Seventh Framework Programme (FP7), formulated by the European Commission. These challenges will be investigated from 2007 to 20113. Its goal it to ensure Europe will master new ICT technologies to remain competitive and safeguard its quality of life. A quick scan of the projects in the ICT Framework Programme (85 projects out of a total number of 564 projects1) was obtained from the FP7 website and analysed on their most important trends. An example project is given for each challenge. Table 3.2 shows that all S&T trends discussed in this section are resembled in the ICT challenges of FP7. On the production side, Miniaturization, Moore’s, Disk and Butter’s law are important for the Components, Systems, Engineering challenge. This challenge aims at the production of smaller and more advanced electronic components. Metcalfe’s and Community’s law are present in the Pervasive and Trusted Network and Service Infrastructures challenge. Flexibility in form is for example needed for the challenge Towards Sustainable and Personalised Health, e.g. to integrate systems into healthcare appliances (intelligent bandage). Last, integration of science comes back in the Future Technologies (open) challenge. On the application side, ubiquitous connectivity is highly related to the Pervasive and Trusted Network and Service Infrastructures challenge. The embeddedness driver is found in many challenges, but is specifically important for a challenge like ICT for Independent Living and Inclusion, which deals with ambient intelligence. Intelligence is an important driver for the challenge ICT for Mobility, Environmental Sustainability and Energy Efficiency, as ICT can help to intelligently manage our energy (e.g. smart grids). Last, rich interaction is important for several challenges. An example is the Digital Libraries and Content challenge, in which rich interaction can make large sets of data better accessible and searchable.

1 http://cordis.europa.eu/fp7/, accessed on 9-2-2009.



Table 3.2 FP7 ICT challenges FP7 Challenge (564 projects) Most important trends Example project Pervasive and Trusted Network and Service Infrastructures

Networked, autonomic, self-optimisation and configuration, security

Self-optimisation and self-configuration in wireless networks

Cognitive systems, interactions and robotics

Intelligence, sensitised / social, self-organisation

Social engagement with robots and agents

Components, systems, engineering

Miniaturization, low-energy consumption, flexibility of materials, embedded, cooperative

Shrink-Path of ultra-low power super-conducting electronics

Digital libraries and content Linked, intelligence Autonomous production of images based on distributed sensing

Towards sustainable and personalised health

Embedding, Intelligence & personalised, security & reliability, rich interaction

Personalised and intergrated cardiac care: Patient-specific cardiovascular modelling and simulation for in silico disease understanding and management and for medical device evaluation and optimisation

ICT for mobility, environmental sustainability and energy efficiency

Intelligent, cooperative, networked, low-energy consumption, security & reliability

Ambient-intelligent interactive monitoring system for energy use optimisation in manufacturing SMEs

ICT for independent living and inclusion

Self-organising, embedding, intelligence, sensitised (e.g. haptic),

Haptic, audio and visual interfaces for maps and location-based services

Future Technologies (Open) Miniaturization (Nanoscale), Convergence (Biotechnology and ICT), intelligence, embedding, complexity

Adaptive and trusted ambient ecologies

The next section will outline the most important future demand and societal drivers for innovation in the Electrical and Optical Equipment Sector. Next, the relation between demand and S&T drivers will be discussed in section 3.3.

3.2 Demand-side drivers

The demand for electrical and optical equipment can be found in various markets where these products are applied. The main science and technology drivers at the application side, as presented in section 3.1 are relevant in many markets and for several societal issues. Hence, the main demand-side drivers for the sector are structured here according to these markets and societal issues. Although several demand drivers are specific for a certain market or societal issue, personalisation is really a cross-cutting demand driver. Personalisation is important in several demand segments, including health, education, shopping, entertainment, governmental services and logistics.



Ageing society Europe’s population is ageing rapidly. Eurostat (2008b) estimates that the share of people aged 65 years or over in the total population will increase from 17.1% in 2008 to 30% in 2060. Moreover, it is expected that in 2060 for every person aged 65 years or over there are 2 persons of working age; in 2008 this dependency ratio was 4 to 1. The ageing society has important socio-economic implications. On the one hand, it will lead to changing demands and needs for products and services, and, on the other hand, an ageing society leads to an ageing and also declining labour force. An ageing society demands new and other types of health and social care. It demands new types of diagnostics and treatments for new geriatric and complex combinations of diseases. It also requires health care and social services that can be provided at home, enabling the elderly to stay at home longer independently. In addition, the ageing society has implications for the user-friendliness and accessibility of products and services, including user interfaces adapted to the specific requirements of older people. To enable older people being active both socially and economically, lifelong learning facilities are needed. Healthy living Europeans have a better health than 50 years ago; the life expectancy rate has increased by 10 years in total, due to improved social-economic and environmental conditions, as well as better medical treatment and care (World Health Organisation, 2008; European Commission, 2004). Although, the overall health of European citizens has improved, there are some important issues for the future as well. The European population is ageing rapidly and this has important consequences for their health as well as for their specific demand for health care. Scientific and technological developments enabled the treatment of geriatric diseases, which in the past were often the primary cause of death for older people. However, as a consequence, people will now get older with different types of complex diseases and will be affected by other life-threatening and chronicle diseases, which will require more complex types of medical treatment and health care (World Health Organisation, 2008; European Commission, 2004). This requires new technologies and methods for treatment and diagnostics. Besides the increasing demand for medical treatment from the ageing society, also the development and introduction of costly high-tech healthcare technologies are pushing up the costs of healthcare rapidly. Hence, there is a great need for highly efficient and better healthcare systems (World Health Organisation, 2008; ISTAG, 2006). This requires integrated health care processes, reduced administrative work for healthcare providers, seamlessly connected healthcare processes, integrated and accessible patient information, as well as efficient decision support systems (ISTAG, 2006). Another important trend will be the increased emancipation of the patient. People will increasingly considerer their health condition as a main priority in their lives. They will be willing to spend more of their income on health care, turning them from a patient into a consumer (ISTAG, 2006; IPTS, 2003; ELECTRA, 2008). They want health care that deals with people as individuals with rights. They want to have effective health care and they want to get it from health care providers who have integrity to act in the interest of the patient, with knowledge and competence. Moreover, people want to be more in control; they want to have access to reliable information to make the right choices. There is an increasing need for personalised and contextually dependent information about health and diseases. Patients are looking for information that is applied to their specific situation in terms of diseases, working conditions, and lifestyle, while they also would like to discuss their health and diseases with peers. This requires the integration of electronic data of patients from various databases, but also the development of cheap, easy-to-use self-diagnosing, monitoring and even self-treatment systems, as well as the development of tele-healthcare systems.



Another major shift will be from treating illness to preventing illness and promoting healthy living. This requires more and better information about health and effects of lifestyle on health, also tailored to individual patients and citizens (European Commission, 2004). Building and Housing People are increasingly focusing on their home and make more intensive use of their living environment. This is already a trend and it this will likely continue. People will integrate living, working, learning and leisure activities in one place: their home. People will search for relieving the stress of managing the house, requiring automated management of various household functions like cleaning, heating and cooling, but also shopping for daily used household supplies. People will increasingly want to communicate and socialise with other family members inside the home, as well as to and from home. This requires easy-to-use and ubiquitous communication systems as well as applications that ease the management of the family agenda. The home will also be the place for resting, relaxation and entertainment. Instead of looking for entertainment outside the home, People will increasingly bring relaxation activities and entertainment into their home. A general trend is that people want to define themselves when, where and with whom they will relax and consume entertainment. This requires ubiquitous systems and communication networks that support entertainment-on-demand and integrate online- and offline social networks. Home will be a place for work and learning as well. People want more flexibility in working and learning activities, deciding themselves when and where they will work and learn. This requires systems and networks supporting the integration of online and offline learning and working. People will look for more privacy and want to protect their home and themselves against crime. In addition, they want to improve the safety of their home by preventing accidental events, for example caused by fire. This requires automated management of access to and protection and safety of the home. In addition, there will be an increasing demand for energy-efficient housing and environmental friendly building. This requires systems that support the efficient use of energy in the house, by developing products that consume less energy, but also by developing systems that can control the use of energy by equipment and systems in the house (IPTS, 2003; ELECTRA, 2008). Mobility, Transport and Logistics Due to growing urbanisation, economic growth and globalisation, freight and passenger flows will increase constantly. At the same time, there is an increasing demand for diminishing the negative externalities (e.g. environmental concerns, congestion) of this growing transport. Increased urbanisation will require more local and short-distance transport, increasing the level of congestion. This asks for new, intelligent and flexible transport solutions and efficient mixes of transportation modes, requiring systems that can manage and coordinate these transport solutions and transportation combinations. There will be an increasing need for personalised transportation. People will ask for reliable, real-time and precise information and navigational support to move freely and quickly to their destinations, while at the same time looking for location-based information on local transportation modes, hotels, restaurants, shops etc. As people spend a lot of time on travelling, they would like to have access to the same information as they have in the office or at home. This also includes various types of entertainment. Personalised transportation requires ubiquitous and real time data management and communication systems and easy-to-use and embedded communication and navigation systems. Transportation should not only be fast, flexible and reliable, but passengers increasingly demand safe and secure transportation. Most accidents occur at the road, mainly due to the intensive use of roads in urban regions. In addition, there is a stronger threat from terrorist attacks targeting transportation infrastructure and modes. This requires advanced surveillance systems for car, driver and environmental conditions. The ageing society will also influence the need for transportation. More than in the past, older people will be mobile for a longer time, until they are very old, increasing the demand for mobility as well as requiring different types of transportation modes. It is also expected that the future transport systems will be more self-financed instead of financed by public resources only, mainly because of a shift towards ‘paying for using’ as one of the methods to reduce congestion and to improve



environmental conditions. This requires systems for automated ticketing and billing. Finally, the pressing need for more environmental friendly transport and mobility will continue, requiring energy efficient transport modes and the use of renewable resources. This requires systems that can control the efficient use of energy by transport modes (European Commission, 2006b; IPTS, 2003; ISTAG, 2006; ELECTRA, 2008; European Commission, 2009). Energy and natural resources Energy and the availability of natural resources has become a major issue and it will remain its pole position on the agenda for the coming years. While energy and natural resources are a fundamental basis of every infrastructure and industrial production process, at the same time it is facing a number of challenges. Fossil fuel prices are very instable, but they are likely to increase substantially in the coming years, making energy really a critical cost factor. Energy supply can be highly influenced by unstable geo-political aspects. Moreover, the supply of fossil fuel is diminishing, while at the same time the energy requirements will strongly increase due to overall economic growth, strong growth of emerging markets and increasing global population. Finally, there is an increasing urgency to improve environmental quality and climate protection. These challenges require systems that can control the efficient and reliable supply of energy, as well as systems that support the optimal energy mix, including small scale, local energy production systems (ELECTRA, 2008; ISTAG, 2006; Risø National Laboratory, 2005). Climate change and sustainability Strongly linked to the issue of energy supply is the issue of climate change and sustainability. Global environmental concerns are positioned high on the global agenda and both governments and industry recognise the importance of improving the environmental quality and protecting the climate. Governments are implementing regulations for protecting the environment (e.g. emission control regulation), but also measures to stimulate the development of more sustainable products, processes, services, and consumption patterns. There will be an increasing need for energy and resource efficient production processes as well as integrated technologies that prevent pollutants being generated during the production process. Moreover, there is a growing need for products that are more energy efficient and can contribute to a sustainable consumption pattern (ELECTRA, 2008; ISTAG, 2006; Risø National Laboratory, 2005; IPTS, 2004). Education and learning Driven by the continuously changing and dynamic working environment, people of all ages should have the knowledge and skills to deal with these changes and dynamics. This requires a lifelong learning approach for all people. In order to realise this lifelong learning approach, education and training should be offered in a flexible way, customised to the specific needs and circumstances of the people, offering people equal chances to access and success in school and work (IPTS, 2003; ISTAG, 2006). Lifelong learning requires an active learning approach more than a passive approach. Active learning is leaning by doing, communicating and sharing. Active learning uses all the senses and all the methods to learn and provides access to knowledge anywhere and anytime. Active learning also involves the students in developing their own learning plan, best fitting their own pace, style, and location (IPTS, 2003). Learning will also increasingly become informal, as people will learn from daily activities and share their experiences and ideas more widely with others. Another important issue will be the need to match theory and practice. Education and training should better match the skills requirements of the industry and there should be a better connection between the (vocational) education systems and the industry to support learning on the job and putting theory into practice by arranging internships and apprenticeships (IPTS, 2003; ISTAG, 2006). The future education and learning challenges require ubiquitous communication networks and easy-to-use training systems, integrating online and offline learning tools and integrating learning into work situations.



Shopping and Commerce A main trend will be the full adoption of mass customisation. Based on one-on-one relationships between supplier and consumer, consumers will increasingly demand tailor-made products and services. Consumers want to shop anytime and anywhere. They will require flexibility, free and mobile accessibility, user-friendliness as well as interactive shopping assistance. Moreover, they will be more active in negotiating prices and services. They will also increase their buying power: they will, together with the supplier, co-create a product or service; they will have a say in the product and promotion in exchange of his ideas and data (e.g., tailoring product offerings to customers need); and they will demand more transparency about the supply chain (HBD, 2006; Forum for the Future, 2007; TNSGlobal, 2008). Consumers will be better informed, using infomediairs and social networks to find the right offers. Consumers will share information about the hottest stores, new products, trends and must-have products (TNSGlobal, 2008). Another form of increasing consumer power will be group buying; consumers will establish purchasing collectives to increase their purchasing power towards retailers (TNSGlobal, 2008). Consumer will not just look for more convenience and affordable products and services, they will also search for experiences when shopping (Forum for the Future, 2007). Another important issue will be the demand for sustainable and green products and services (Accenture, 2008). Regarding Internet sales, there will be a strong demand for secure, trusty and safe payment processes, systems safeguarding personal data, as well as user-friendly interfaces and secure and timely delivery of goods ordered. The future trends in shopping and commerce require ubiquitous communication systems, integration of information from different data sources, interactive en intelligent shopping assistance applications, automated billing, as well as optimised tracking and tracing systems. Culture and Entertainment A general trend will be the demand for total experiences where the traditional boundaries between culture and entertainment and information are blurring. People will increasingly look for interactive, flexible, high quality but also affordable culture, media and entertainment experiences (IPTS, 2003; ISTAG, 2006). Driven by globalisation, citizens will have a growing interest in their own cultural identity at local, regional, national and also at European level. Citizens want to have easy access to the cultural heritage, at low costs. They want to experience their cultural heritage when and where it is most convenient to them. Another trend is co-production and co-creation between artists, but also between professional artists and citizens. People will look for news and information anywhere and anytime, customised to their specific interests and needs. Media consumers will no longer be a passive viewer or consumer of media, but they will look for more engagement and participation (IPTS, 2003; ISTAG, 2006). The future trends in culture and entertainment require systems integrating content from different sources and combining virtual and real-world experiences, but also systems that enable user-generated content and active participation of citizens. Relationships and Communication There is an increasing need to re-find relations and connections to family, friends and communities now people live at considerable distances from family and friends and communities are more physically fragmented. People wish to reinforce and extend already existing social networks and communities and to build together with these networks and communities a collective and living memory. Instead of being one of many (mass society) people are increasingly looking for shared experiences and thoughts and want to connect to social networks to share their experiences and ideas with others (networked society) (ISTAG, 2006; FISTERA , 2005b). This requires ubiquitous and easy-to-use communication systems, enabling the exchange and interaction of emotions, thoughts and experiences.



Security Security is increasingly an important topic for European citizens. The number of incidents and attacks is increasing and security is threatened by terrorist attacks, illegal migration and major events (in sports and culture, but also events like the G-8 summits), but also by natural, financial and health hazards (e.g. pandemia). The search for more security is strong and is expected to become even stronger. There is a growing need for security in everything: security at your work, in your home, while travelling, during recreation, but also security of critical infrastructure such as water, food, energy supply, transport systems, health systems, communication networks and the financial infrastructure. In order to improve the security, there is a greater need to act proactively and to react effectively and timely and to stay alert continuously. While the search for higher security levels is strong, there is also a need to maintain the democratic, pluralist, open and liberal values of the European society (ISTAG, 2006; ELECTRA, 2008). The growing demand for security requires further interoperability and connectivity of information and communication systems, but also smart surveillance systems as well as enhanced scanning and detecting systems and effective tracking and tracing systems. Governmental efficiency The demand for more efficiency in public services and governmental tasks will continue. Government and public services will need to be easily accessible by all people, independent of time and place. Citizens will increasingly want to extend their influence and participate actively in democratic processes and community processes and will increasingly require greater democracy and transparency (FISTERA, 2005b; ISTAG, 2006). This requires systems that provide easy access to governmental information, allow integration of data from various sources and allow interaction and participation from citizens. Higher productivity and efficiency in industrial processes The manufacturing industry will continue its search for higher productivity and efficiency in the production processes. Production is increasingly complex and located all over the world. Production is increasingly realised in networks of producers. This requires an easier and faster connection and integration of separate production systems. Moreover, it requires more and better information about the production processes at all times and places in order to optimise the management of the production chain. Related to this is the growing need for production services (maintenance and repair) oriented on the total lifecycle of production facilities (ELECTRA, 2008).



4 Emerging innovation themes and their requirements

4.1 New products, processes, technological trajectories

The main science and technology drivers as identified in section 3.1 will have important implications for many different societal issues and market demands, as specified in section 3.2. Superposing the science and technology drivers with the demand-side drivers results in various innovation themes for the Electrical and Optical Equipment Sector. This section presents the main innovation themes, clustered by the most important consumer markets for the Electrical and Optical Equipment Sector (based on Electra, 2008):

• Intelligent and ambient assisted living. • Personalised and integrated health management systems • Personalised and intelligent transportation systems • Energy-efficient energy supply systems and sustainable equipment • Ubiquitous and integrated lifelong learning systems • Personalised and ubiquitous shopping systems • Personalised, ubiquitous and experience-driven culture and entertainment systems • Intelligent and integrated security systems • Integrated and intelligent production and management information systems • User-friendly and interactive public service systems

Intelligent and ambient assisted living As described in section 3.2, increasing energy consumption, changes in demographics (ageing society, growing number of singles) and more intensive use of houses (both for living and work) boost the demand for the application of ambient intelligence in buildings. ICT can make buildings more sustainable, living and tele-working more intelligent and can assist the elderly with independent living. As people will like to spend less time and efforts in managing their house, they will need tailor-made automation of basic housing supporting functions such as heating, ventilation, lighting, as well as protection which should improve the comfort and safety while increasing energy-efficiency. Although people will look for technological devices to support them in managing the house and in combining various activities, technology should not dominate the overall function of housing. A specific demand for home automation will come from the elderly, who will require user-friendly support systems that enable longer, independent living in their own home. People will increasingly want to communicate and socialise with other family members, relatives and friends and bring entertainment and relaxation into their home. They will also want to connect to social networks and to become part of a networked society. This requires a combination of various communication networks, devices and interfaces, which are ubiquitous, easy accessible, user-friendly, hand-free, sensing and interactive (IPTS, 2003; ELECTRA, 2008). As people want more flexibility in working and learning activities, they will increasingly work and learn at home as well. This requires user-friendly tele-work and tele-learing facilities. Although people want to integrate working, learning and living, there is a growing demand of keeping the functions apart, while enabling them at the same place. This also requires tele-work and tele-learning facilities that cause minimum hindrance to daily routines in housing and that are as comfortable and discrete as possible (IPTS, 2003; ELECTRA, 2008).



In the near future, developments in the Electrical and Optical equipment sector could lead to the various new products, processes and technologies:

• Intelligent lighting and heating for comfort and energy efficiency • Intelligent security (e.g. against burglars or fire) with simulated occupancy and

presence detectors / sensors. • Remote technologies for control, access and notification (e.g. on room temperature) • Automated household technologies • Distributed multimedia technology and services • Intelligent systems for assistive aids for those with special needs • Digital and biometric access control and control of home services.

Personalised and integrated health management systems One of the main innovation areas for health care will be the personalisation of health care. The patient will really become the centre of attention in providing health care, empowering the patient and enabling the provision of effective health care targeting the individual patient. Personalization will also be a main driver for improving the quality and efficiency of health care. One important field for innovation that enables this personalisation is the development of personal health management systems, including both personal diagnosing and personal treatment systems. Diagnosing and treatment can become more effective and efficient when tailored to the specific individual characteristics (e.g. disease history, genetic profile). In addition, people will like to monitor their health and health-related behaviour themselves and connect it to information, advice and even actions needed. This will require cheap and easy to use self-diagnosing and self-treatment devices, which will imply a shift from healthcare in a traditional hospital setting to home-based health care. Monitoring and treatment of some diseases, especially of chronicle diseases, can be provided at home enabling patients to recover in their comfortable and familiar surroundings. Also consulting and diagnosing can be provided to people at home, which could improve efficiency and could especially be relevant for older people or disabled people. Embedded systems will be important for the development of wearable, implantable and self-regulating and organising devices needed for realising personalised and home-based health care (ISTAG, 2006; IPTS, 2003; ELECTRA, 2008). The increasing empowerment of the patient also implies that patients will be looking for information that is applied to their specific situation in terms of diseases, working conditions and lifestyle, while they also would like to discuss their health and diseases with peers. This requires personalised and contextually dependent information about health and diseases. Patients will increasingly use the Internet, as well as peer discussion groups and social networks as an information source (ISTAG, 2006; IPTS, 2003; ELECTRA, 2008. Specific demands for health care come from the ageing society. As people live longer, probably more and other types of diseases will occur. An ageing society demands therefore new and other types of health care. This includes new types of treatment taking into account the peculiarities of older people, but also health care which is easily accessible by the elderly (ISTAG, 2006; IPTS, 2003; ELECTRA, 2008).



Personalisation of healthcare will not only contribute to the effectiveness of health care, but it will also stimulate the efficiency of healthcare. Self-diagnosing and self-treatment systems reduce the demand for expensive hospital capacity and personalised diagnosing and treatment systems are more effective, reducing the number of unnecessary or unsuitable diagnostics and treatments, which are now often based on trial and error approaches. The efficiency of healthcare will be further increased by making patient information ubiquitous available to all healthcare providers, ranging from the general practitioner to the medical specialist in the hospital, and from the dentist to the pharmacist by integrating electronic data of patients from various databases. In addition, higher efficiency can be realised by integrating better and connecting seamlessly different health care processes, reducing administrative work for health care providers and developing decision support systems. An important contribution to this gain in efficiency will come from tele health care applications (ISTAG, 2006; IPTS, 2003; ELECTRA, 2008). Faster, more accurate and cheaper diagnostics, treatment and monitoring will be supported by the development of nanotechnologies. Molecular imaging, which is the convergence of nanotechnology and medical imaging, enables diagnosis and monitoring at a very early stage, even before a disease can have a significant effect on the body. Both in-vivo and in-vitro approaches will be used, based on advanced molecular imaging, nano-size implantable devices, biosensors, as well as multifunctional nano particles for drug release (ELECTRA, 2008). In the near future, developments in the Electrical and Optical Equipment Sector could lead to various new products, processes and technologies in the healthcare sector:

• The development of nanotechnologies will facilitate faster, more accurate and cheaper diagnostics and treatment.

• Early diagnosis and screening of diseases before they have a significant and serious effect on the body.

• Improved detection (clinical cameras capable of acquiring whole-body images, combination of different imaging modalities).Technologies like molecular imaging will highly increase the sensitivity of imaging procedures.

• E-health infrastructural technologies, such as telematics, smart-card authentication, RFID and mobile computing, will become important to optimize logistics in health care sector:

• Mobile and disposable technologies will enable mobile monitoring, analysis and safety systems. These mobile technologies will further enable automated support of patient care.

• Highly sensitised surgical robots (NASA, 2006). • Robotics for healthcare. • Connectivity (as a technological driver) will accelerate the process of community

interaction which in turn will facilitate innovative health services and applications (ISTAG, 2006).

• Biomedical sensors and actuators for monitoring, diagnosing • Personalized healthcare solutions: Integrating monitoring, prevention and treatment

(SUSchem, 2005; Siemens, 2005) • Doctors will be able to combine clinical, medical and genetics knowledge to

simulate personalised medical interventions on virtual humans. (ISTAG, 2006) • Intelligent implants for monitoring and drug release (IPTS, 2003) • Ambient identification and authentication systems registering patients, smart cards

with patient information (IPTS, 2003)



Personalised and intelligent transportation systems The increasing demand for faster, safer, reliable en flexible transport requires integrated traffic management systems, co-ordinating the mix of transportation modes available, while reducing congestion and reducing the environmental burden. Related to this is the need for reliable, precise and up-to-date data on traffic flows and congestions. Real-time, reliable and precise traffic information will also enable intelligent dynamic routing to minimise traffic congestions and to optimise the use of public transport modes. There will be an increasing need for personalised transportation options, individualised navigation and mobile and ubiquitous access to information. Traffic safety will continue to be an important issue. Safety in transport depends heavily on surveillance systems for the vehicle itself, but also for surveillance of the driver and surveillance of environmental conditions. The demand for secure transportation requires surveillance systems that use enhanced scanning and detection techniques and able tracking and tracing of people. In addition, these systems should be able to communicate and operate amongst each other. The introduction of self-financing of transportation requires user-friendly ticketing and control systems enabling automated and central billing, minimising financial losses due to fare dodgers, keeping the traffic moving without delays and offering more convenience to the travellers (IPTS, 2003; ISTAG, 2006; ELECTRA, 2008). In the near future, developments in the Electrical and Optical Equipment Sector could lead to various new products, processes and technologies in the transport sector:

• Electronics and electronic systems for safety, reliability and environment-friendliness. This leads to intelligent power electronics, sensor systems, secure data communication, system integration technologies, unconventional actuators, pattern detection and sensor fusion, adaptive and multi-model driver dialogue systems (FMER, 2007).

• ICT for an intelligent infrastructure: smarter solutions to the management of scarce resources (traffic, energy, water, etc) through intelligent infrastructure (ISTAG, 2006). Examples are: car-to-infrastructure communication, intelligent routing systems, intelligent roads, automatic train supervision and operation, etc.

• Intelligent and networked vehicles, which enables, car-to-driver, car-to-car and car-to- infrastructure communication. Examples are: multi-modal driver assistance systems, cellular mobile telecommunication for traffic use, Wireless technologies between cars, etc. (IPTS, 2003)

• Electronic and automated ticketing, mobile payments, ticket-less billing systems (IPTS, 2003)

Energy-efficient energy supply systems and sustainable equipment The main challenge for the future energy supply will be the development of an energy supply system that is reliable and continuing, while at the same time energy efficient as well as environmental friendly. Energy-efficient energy supply systems include a broad category of activities: consumption, creation, management, storing, an balancing production an use. Super grids could contribute to this, as they enable trading high volumes of energy across great distances via wide area transmission networks. This makes it possible to reach remote renewable resources (e.g. wind from see). Another important innovation field is the smart grid. Smart grids include digital technology to improve the efficiency of current energy supply and to allow for supplying alternative resources. Smart grids can coordinate the energy supply to low priority home devices (e.g. water heaters), for example to take advantage of the most desirable energy sources at the best price. Smart grids can also coordinate the integration of power produced by small power producers (household production) into the central power supply systems (ELECTRA, 2008; ISTAG, 2006; Risø National Laboratory, 2005).



ICT has not only an important role to play in developing future energy supply systems, but ICT can also help decreasing consumption of energy, help other products and technology in consuming less energy. In addition, there is also an important demand for the development of electrical and optical equipment that is more energy efficient by itself, made of sustainable and environmental friendly materials and produced in an energy efficient way. A cradle-to-cradle approach in designing electrical and optical equipment will then be essential. In the near future, developments in the Electrical and Optical Equipment Sector could lead to various new products, processes and technologies to tackle problems in energy consumption and natural resources:

• Smart grids & Sensors: coupling electricity grid to sensors will enable systems to monitor and influence their own power supplies (FMER, 2007)

• Super grids (FMER, 2007) • Transmission and distribution losses (power line designs). Long-distance

transmission technologies: access renewable energy sources (wind and solar). • Grid reliability and flexibility (ELECTRA, 2008). • Sensors could be used in user equipment to better manage demand through real-

time energy pricing (ISTAG, 2006). • Sensor in the electricity supply network to enable the effective integration of

renewable energy and small-scale generation (ISTAG, 2006). • Optical technology for renewable energy.

Ubiquitous and integrated lifelong learning systems People will need to learn permanently (lifelong learning) and they will like to do this whenever and wherever they want. This requires flexible and easy accessible education and training activities integrated and projected into a ubiquitous learning environment, including all tools, methodologies and technologies available. Different education tools and methodologies should be seamlessly connected and support interactive learning, as people will combine learning in the real world classroom with learning in virtual environments, they will combine and integrate learning in school and at work, and they will learn on its own and in networks (IPTS, 2003). Lifelong learning will also be essential to keep older people both socially and economically active. Lifelong learning facilities targeted at older people can help them to participate actively in the society and to enhance their societal inclusion. At the same time, lifelong learning facilities are needed to give the elderly the tools to remain economically active both from the consumer and the employee perspective. In the future retirement will probably be later than at the age of 65, due to high pension costs and the declining labour force. Lifelong learning can help to enhance the employability of older people (ISTAG, 2006). In the near future, developments in the Electrical and Optical Equipment Sector could lead to various new products, processes and technologies for education and lifelong learning:

• Increased usability and new types of interfaces / displays (3d, large areas, flexibility, mobility, higher resolution, etc) (ISTAG, 2006).

• Virtual presence: mixed reality mediation environments will create virtual presence, offering highly realistic face-to-face interactions (ISTAG, 2006).

• Intelligent Agents in learning and evaluation knowledge process (IPTS, 2003). • Seamless, adaptive and interactive user-interfaces (IPTS, 2003). • Intelligent retrieval tools (IPTS, 2003). • Digital libraries (IPTS, 2003).



Personalised and ubiquitous shopping systems A main field for innovation in the electrical and optical equipment sector regarding shopping is the need for ubiquitous available shopping options. People want to shop anytime and anywhere and this requires mobile, easy accessible, interactive, user-friendly, personalised and secure shopping assistance and shops. In the near future, developments in the Electronic and Optical Equipment Sector could lead to various new products, processes and technologies for shopping and commerce (IPTS, 2003):

• Mobile devices offering digital and personalised shopping assistants; • Automated payment and check-out systems using RFID technology and biometric

identification • Automated ordering of supplies using RFID technology • Intelligent shopping charts offering shopping assistance • Secure and automated collection and delivery point for e-purchases

Personalised, ubiquitous and experience-driven culture and entertainment systems Like in other categories of demand (e.g. shopping, education, health), people will like to have access to and experience culture and entertainment whenever and wherever it is convenient for them. They want new content, broader diversity in content and sources, more interaction and participation in creating content. Access to culture and entertainment should be mobile, easy, personalised, content-rich and interactive, requiring ubiquitous and embedded systems, and rich visualisation techniques. In the near future, developments in the Electrical and Optical Equipment Sector could lead to various new products, processes and technologies in the culture and entertainment sector:

• New converged services bridging across devices and between entertainment, information access and communications (e.g. IP TV services) (FISTERA, 2006).

• Increased usability and new types of interfaces / displays (3d, large areas, flexibility, mobility, higher resolution, etc) (ISTAG, 2006)

• High definition Television (ELECTRA, 2008) • Virtual presence: mixed reality mediation environments will create virtual presence,

offering highly realistic face-to-face interactions (ISTAG, 2006). 3-D real-time holographic experiences, voice-enabled we news (IPTS, 2003)

• Intelligent retrieval systems (IPTS, 2003) • Context-aware and location based entertainment (IPTS, 2003)

Intelligent and integrated security systems An important societal trend is that people are feeling less safe and secure due to an increasing number of incidents and attacks and the threat of terrorism. The increasing demand for higher security in all parts of daily life activities requires increased interoperability and seamless connectivity of security systems and devices, intelligent surveillance systems and devices, as well as enhanced scanning and detecting techniques and efficient and effective tracking and tracing systems. Additionally, advancements in ICT itself require sophisticated security technologies. In the near future, developments in the Electrical and Optical Equipment Sector could lead to various new products, processes and technologies to enhance safety and security (ELECTRA, 2008)

• Detection technologies. • Passenger protection technologies (x-ray machines, vapour machines, identification

technologies incl. Biometrics).



• Cargo identification and protection technologies (scanners, seals, electronic tags and sensor arrays).

• Protection of critical infrastructures. • Video surveillance and advanced monitoring systems

Integrated and intelligent production, logistics and management information systems Productivity, flexibility and complexity in the process and manufacturing industry continue to steadily increase. ICT can play a role in meeting the growing pressure on productivity gains, mass customisation and cost savings. As production will increasingly be organised in networks of producers, suppliers and production services providers located all over the world, production systems will need to be better connected and integrated and management information systems are required for more and better information about the production chain and the logistics. In the near future, developments in the Electrical and Optical Equipment Sector could lead to various new products, processes and technologies to support automation and efficiency in industrial processes (ELECTRA, 2008):

• IT-standard / Industrial Ethernet. • Internet technologies • Lifecycle tracking systems • Location-based services for logistics enabled by RFID • Batch-of-one manufacturing, a new production paradigm allowing personalised

products to be custom-designed and built within a flexible production environment. Achieving this will require integration of diverse ICT applications.

• Intelligent and sensitised robotics • Self-diagnosis and repairing systems

User-friendly and interactive public service systems As people will increasingly demand easy accessible public services whenever and wherever it is convenient for them, the systems of the government and the public services should be interactive, personalised, user-friendly and ubiquitously available. Specific demand will come from the elderly. They will also ask for user-friendly and easy accessible public services, which take into account the specific requirements of older people. General innovation themes in emerging markets When analysing the various areas for innovation along the categories for demand-drivers, the following more general areas for innovation, relevant for the Electrical and Optical Equipment Sector, can be identified (based on ELECTRA, 2008; ISTAG, 2006): Seamless broadband communication networks spanning from the personal to the regional and global area Combining all sorts of different computing and communication networks with ever higher bandwidth and full interconnection and interoperability will permit seamless delivery of high volumes of data and services at any place and anytime. Connectivity is ubiquitous, truly mobile and always on. Data will be transferred secure and privacy is guaranteed and basic service enablers like presence, location, billing and authentication support the rapid creation of value-added services. High speed networks are always connected to ubiquitously available high power and low cost processors, making real-time grid computing a reality.



Full digital convergence Computing, consumer equipment communications and content will be fully converged. The boundaries between computer, mobile phones and other equipment will be blurred. All content will be digitalised and all devices will be able to communicate with each other. Services will be further integrated into the products, leading to further service convergence. Embedded components and control Sensors, actuator networks, RFIDs and other intelligent sensing, communication, storage and computation systems are included in all kinds of products, enabling these products to communicate with each other and to auto-organise themselves (internet of things). Products and components can be tracked throughout their life cycle. Sensors in energy using products and energy supply networks can enable the creation of intelligent infrastructures needed for the management of scarce resources. Integrated sensors and actuators can create materials and structures that adapt to external conditions. Driven by this development of high quality, low cost, and user-friendly sensors, interfaces and actuators, robotics will increasingly be integrated into daily life. These sensors, interfaces and actuators will also enable the development of new assistive aids that can compensate for individual’s functional limitations. Smart ambient environments: invisible intelligence Systems are more intelligent, personalised and context-aware. Systems will be able to sense and make decisions autonomously. Easy-to-use interfaces are embedded in all kinds of objects and settings, moving the technology into the background and making the environment as the interface. The physical environment gets new properties, offering functions on demand, tailored to individual needs, linking real and virtual worlds, while keeping the underlying technologies out of sight. User-generated production The niche is becoming more attractive and all products, contents and services are personalised and produced according to the individual consumer’s own requirements and specifications. This requires flexible production environments. Rich visualisation and tele experience Systems will increasingly become visual and content-rich, offering new visual techniques and 3-dimensional interfaces for searching, retrieving and consuming digital content. Systems will combine real and virtual worlds and include sensory interfaces, offering highly realistic, personalised and interactive experiences and enhancing intuitive man-machine interaction. Development of nanotechnologies for health care The development of nanotechnologies will become essential for developing more accurate and cheaper systems and devices for diagnostics and treatment. Nanotechnology in combination with medical imaging will enable the diagnosis of diseases at a very early stage. Implantable devices and biosensors at nano-size scale enable in-vitro monitoring and diagnosing and nano particles can be used for controlled and effective drug release. Which innovation themes and related firm strategies can be anticipated? This chapter looks in a systematic way at innovation themes in the sector under study (in the sense of challenges and opportunities), resulting from the interaction of S&T drivers (Section 3.1) and demand drivers (Section 3.2). The innovation themes clearly show that innovation in the Electrical and Optical Equipment Sector often results from the joint development of equipment or hardware on the one hand



and software and services on the other hand. In some innovation themes, the innovations will mainly be based on developments in software and services and organisational innovations, e.g. in shopping and leisure, or in the governmental services. In other innovation themes the hardware component will be more prominent, e.g. in intelligent living environments or intelligent security systems.

4.2 Firm strategies and organisational change

Whether these innovation themes will really make it into innovation is a matter of how they will be organised and managed in between demand and supply. This section takes a look at the current trends in firms’ strategies for R&D and innovation as well as their strategies to tackle innovation themes. Investments in R&D According to the 2008 EU Industrial R&D Investment Scoreboard, the Electronic and Optical Equipment Sector is among the top investors in R&D. In 2007, companies in the Scoreboard invested 68 billion Euro for R&D in technology hardware and equipment2, which equals a share of 18.3% in the total R&D investment by the scoreboard companies, only just behind the R&D investments of companies in the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector. Electronic and electrical equipment companies3 invested 26 billion Euro in 2007, representing the fifth position in the Scoreboard and a share of 7%. R&D investments in the technology hardware and equipment sector have increased with 10% annually over the past three years, while R&D investments in the electronic and electrical equipment increased with 4% annually. The technology hardware and equipment companies belong to the most R&D intensive companies in the Scoreboard (8.5%), while the electronic and electrical equipment companies have a more medium R&D intensity of 4.1% (Hernández Guevera et al., 2008). The biggest European industrial investors in R&D can be found among the telecommunications equipment, electrical components & equipment, and the semiconductors (see Table 4.1). Nokia is not only number one in the telecommunications equipment, but also the biggest investor in R&D of all European companies in the Scoreboard. Alcatel-Lucent and Siemens hold the eight and ninth position and Ericsson holds the eleventh position (Hernández Guevera et al., 2008). Consumer electronics is part of the category ‘leisure goods’, which also includes toys and recreation goods. Philips Electronics is classified as part of this category and belongs to the main R&D investors in Europe with 1.6 billion Euro in 2007, which puts Philips in the 20th position in the Scoreboard of European companies. The second R&D investor in consumer electronics in Europe is Bang & Olufsen with 66.2 million Euro (Hernández Guevera et al., 2008).

2 Computer hardware, electronic office equipment, semiconductors and telecommunications equipment 3 Electrical components and equipment, electronic equipment



Table 4.1 Top 5 European R&D investing companies for various subsector Rank Company Country R&D

investments2007

M EUR

Rank Company Country R&D investments

2007 M EUR

Computer hardware Telecommunications equipment 1 Bull FR 444.90 1 Nokia FI 5,281.00 2 Kontron DE 42.61 2 Alcatel-Lucent FR 3,368.00 3 Axis SE 21.85 3 Ericsson SE 2,911.03 4 Psion UK 17.39 4 Italtel IT 103.41 5 Plasmon UK 11.66 5 GN Store Nord DK 72.29

Electronic office equipment Electrical components and equipment 1 Océ NL 218.75 1 Siemens DE 3,366.00 2 Neopost FR 47.60 2 Schneider FR 675.00

3 Legrand FR 175.90 4 Vestas Wind

Systems DK 127.00

5 Spectris UK 61.54 Semiconductors Electronic equipment

1 Infineon Technologies

DE 1,169 1 Agfa-Gevaert BE 200.00

2 STMicroelectronics NL 1,166.16 2 Invensys UK 138.15 3 NXP NL 1,058.00 3 Gemalto NL 106.06 4 ASML NL 488.96 4 Barco BE 81.33 5 ARM UK 100.45 5 Tomom NL 67.41 Source: The 2008 EU Industrial R&D Investment Scoreboard Trends in R&D strategies In terms of firm strategies for managing R&D and innovation, some main trends can be identified. In general, firms are more specialised than before and this also influences their technology, R&D and innovation strategy. They focus their own R&D activities on some core topics, while also acquiring technology from external resources. As the centre of manufacturing competence is moving from the OEMs to the EMS providers and the ODMs, so will R&D also move in the value chain. However, these firms are also the least capable of providing the R&D resources. One solution is the development of vertical teams developing the critical new technologies while sharing the costs (Pfahl and McElroy, 2007; FISTERA, 2006; Photonics21, 2006). Leading-edge research and innovation requires involvement and cooperation from many different actors along the economic value chain. Hence, R&D is becoming more decentralised and organised in networks of companies, universities and other research organisations. A wide diversity of disciplines is involved requiring more interdisciplinary approaches. Another development has been the inclusion of both users and providers in the R&D and innovation activities. In addition, R&D is increasingly organised in locations around the world. Research communities and coalitions, including virtual forms of R&D organisation and distributed innovation are emerging. This all leads to the trend of assembling R&D components of expertise, projects and companies from across various sectors and various R&D performing organisations. Innovation is the product of networks rather than single enterprises. This requires better communication between the companies and other partners in the network about technology developments, for example through



industry road-mapping exercises. Moreover, innovation is increasingly the combination of cross-sectoral basic research results from specialised outsiders with corporate knowledge about the applications and market needs, as well as the needs of lead-users (Pfahl and McElroy, 2007; FISTERA, 2006; Photonics21, 2006). The development of complex, multifunctional products for converging markets requires a design approach focusing on the development of functional, modular components. This will increase flexibility and shorten the product cycle, but it will also place the test and R&D burden on the producers of these components and modules (Pfahl and McElroy, 2007). Realising the future innovation themes will require new design and manufacturing technologies. Design technologies should focus on mechanics and reliability monitoring, thermal and thermo-fluid simulation, and on combined packaging and cooling, but they should also integrate design and simulation and enable the co-design of mechanical, thermal and electrical performance. Manufacturing technologies should focus on miniaturisation, three-dimensional structures, low-temperature processing, and on components and subsystems (Pfahl and McElroy, 2007). R&D Collaborations In Europe, but also worldwide, companies, universities and other research organisations collaborate in dedicated R&D collaborations and networks. CATRENE is, for example, a pan-European programme for co-operative R&D in microelectronics, initiated by the industry and funded within the framework of EUREKA. CATRENE started in January 2008 and builds on previous EUREKA programmes JESSI, MEDEA, and MEDEA+. This four-year programme focuses on R&D in nanoelectronics. The International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors (ITRS) is the fifteen-year assessment of the future technology developments and requirements in the semiconductor industry. ITRS is sponsored by the semiconductor industry associations from Europe, Japan, Taiwain, Korea and the United States. Teams of global chip manufacturers, equipment suppliers, and research communities identify the innovation challenges and develop the roadmaps, which describe very precisely the technology requirements for the future (http://www.itrs.net/). Another industrial consortium is the International Electronics Manufacturing Initiative (iNEMI), which includes 70 electronics manufacturers, suppliers, associations, government agencies and universities. iNEMI aims to identify the needs and priorities of the global electronics industry, the technology and infrastructure gaps and helps to bridge these gaps by accelerating the adoption of new technologies, developing industry infrastructure, disseminating business practices, and stimulating industry standards. iNEMI provides a forum for companies to collaborate and to share expertise (http://www.inemi.org/cms/). SEMATECH is an international strategic and applied research and development consortium of 18 global companies and a university (Albany, Texas). SEMATECH started as a US initiative, supported by the US government, but it has become a global consortium since the mid 1990s. SEMATECH aims to accelerate the adoption of new technologies and innovation in the semiconductor manufacturing. Although the consortium itself includes only semiconductor production firms, it collaborates also with equipment and material suppliers, universities, research institutes, start-up companies and governments. SEMATECH has three subsidiaries: the Advanced Technology Development Facility (ATDF), the Advanced Materials Research Center (AMRC) and the International SEMATECH Manufacturing Initiative (ISMI) (http://www.sematech.org/). The International Imaging Industry Association (I3A) is a global consortium of imaging companies and aims to develop and promote the adoption of open industry standards, to solve interoperability challenges, and to resolve infrastructure issues (http://www.i3a.org).



5 Institutional and structural co-developments and implications

5.1 Skills requirements and the knowledge base

The ‘Comprehensive Sectoral Analysis of Emerging Competences and Economic Activities in the European Union’ for the European Commission, DG Employment. Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities analysed the emerging skills, competences and economic activities in various sectors including the computer, electronic and optical products sector. The definition of the sector is almost similar to the definition used in the present study, although it excludes the manufacture of electrical machinery and apparatus. The study used the Labour Force Survey data to identify the job functions relevant for the computer, electronic and optical products sector. Table 5.1 presents these job functions. Table 5.1 Job functions in the computer, electronic and optical products sector Job function Description Managers Corporate and specialist managers covering all firm functions.

Represent 9% of the sector’s workforce in the EU, increasingly high educated.

Computer professionals ICT professionals developing and designing systems and programmes, as well as applying embedded software. Represent 8% of the sector’s workforce in the EU, increasing their share and mainly mid and high educated.

Engineers R&D and production engineers, respectively developing new products and processes and applying and supporting systems used in production. Represent 19% of the sector’s workforce, increasing their share, mainly mid and high educated

Business professionals Accounting & Finance, Sales and Marketing, Supply chain Management. Represent 14% of the sector’s workforce in the EU, stable share, mainly mid educated

Support staff Office clerks, administrative functions. Represent 10% of the sector’s workforce in the EU, decreasing share, lower and mid educated, but improving

Metal and Machinery workers

Metal moulders, welders, sheet-metal workers, blacksmiths, tool-makers. Represent 5% of the sector’s workforce, stable share, lower and mid educated

Electrical and electronic equipment mechanics and fitters

Electrical and electronic equipment mechanics, fitters and servicers. Represent 7% of the sector’s workforce in the EU, slightly decreasing share, lower and mid educated, but improving

Precision workers and repairers

Precision workers in metal and related materials, precision-instrument makers and repairers, photographic workers. Represent 8% of the sector’s workforce in the EU, stable share

Assemblers Electrical and electronic equipment assemblers. Represent 23% in the NMS and increasing, but only 8% in the EU15 and decreasing. From lower to mid educated.

Labourers and operators Manufacturing labourers, quality control workers. Represent 9% of the sector’s workforce, decreasing, from lower to mid educated.

Source: Van der Zee et al., 2009



In Europe, engineers are the largest group in the total workforce in the sector, followed by business professionals, assemblers, and managers. Assemblers are the largest group in the NMS (share of 23%). In the period 2000-2006, the share of support staff, assemblers and specialised production workers has decreased, although stronger in the EU15 than in the NMS. A general trend of up-skilling can be observed in the same period, indicating a move to a higher, mainly middle and high, educated workforce, at the cost of the low educated workforce in the sector. For each job function, the expected emerging skills and competences until 2020 are discussed and analysed. Regardless the actual direction of technological developments, the sector will be rather dynamic, with fast changing technologies, new applications, new business models, as well as strong diversification and segmentation of markets with high demanding customers. Essential skills for managers will be entrepreneurial skills, such as understanding the customer and supplier needs, spotting market trends and opportunities, developing new business, as well as visionary and strategic skills needed to identify and develop new markets and business models. The development of new markets and completely new business models will require stronger change management skills, as well as social skills to communicate change and inspire and manage people to grow and develop. As business models change and relations witch suppliers and customers will become stronger, more fluid types of organisations will come up, where management needs to be well networked and manage language and cultural differences. Globalisation of the supply chains in combination with virtual value networks ask for more global supply chain management skills as well as more knowledge of intellectual property models. Up-to-date technical knowledge is a priority skills requirement for computer professionals. Especially, extensive knowledge of optics and knowledge for generating and processing images will become extremely important to develop completely new optical instruments for the medical sector. Moreover, the focus will be more on designing and integrating systems, requiring more knowledge of for example inter-operability of systems. Although technical skills are very important for computer professionals, they will also need to understand better the business they are working in and the needs of the customers. Engineers are by far the largest job function in the sector. Especially R&D engineers are very important to the sector as R&D forms the basis for growth in this sector. Production engineers are very relevant in highly complicated production processes of high-tech products, especially in the optical and medical products sector. Technical knowledge is a priority, but the move towards sustainable market niches and segmentation require from R&D engineers that they have a broad perspective on the needs of the market and that they are able to integrate different solutions into one product or service. They should be able to think beyond the traditional boundaries of products or services, be creative and think out-of-the-box. The demand for multidisciplinary and cross-sectoral and -functional approaches in designing new products and services asks for global and virtual cross-sectoral and interdisciplinary project teams and strong project management skills. In addition to the excellent technical knowledge of production engineers, they should also have good quality control skills and act pro-actively. In terms of knowledge base, more interdisciplinary studies need to be developed, to train students in integrating several solutions and functions and using perspectives from different disciplines for designing products and services that really address future market needs.



Driven by the further globalisation of the supply chain, there will be an increasing need for supply chain managers, who have good knowledge of trade regulations, taxes, tariffs, judicial issues, as well as of financial tools. In addition, they should be able to understand different languages and be sensitive to intercultural differences and working around the globe in project teams requires excellent project management skills as well. Also for other business professionals their working environment will increasingly internationalise, requiring skills in operating internationally and intercultural. Especially marketing and sales professionals will need to have well developed social skills to engage in extensive contacts with external parties, mainly customers. They will need to be able to understand their customers’ needs; spotting market trends and especially they will need to be able to translate market requirements into product and service specifications. The main skills requirement for the qualified production workers will be excellent and up-to-date technical knowledge of the product and the production process. It will also be important to expand their technical knowledge towards new, related and promising market niches, such as the medical products sector. Qualified production workers are also responsible for overseeing the production process, requiring excellent quality control skills, especially in the production of high-tech products. This also includes knowledge of production relevant regulation such as WEEm, REACH, ROHs and EuP. As the organisation of the work is changing towards more team working, qualified production workers should also develop more team working and communication skills. It is expected that assembling in Europe will increasingly focus on end-assembling and assembling of special high-tech products for market niches, requiring excellent quality control skills. A general skills requirement for all job functions at all education levels will be e-skills. For all job functions ICT systems and tools will be integrated in the daily operations and employees will need well developed e-skills to be able to work with these systems and tools, to understand how they can increase efficiency in the processes, as well as to use these tools strategically.

5.2 Institutional change

Cherishing consumers’ trust for acceptance Although science and technology can amaze people, at the same time, people can also become very frightened by these developments. Education and showing the value of science for society is needed to reduce the fears. However, a main issue here is acceptance. Acceptance is heavily related to issues of trust, security and privacy, especially in a networked society. The government together with the sector should organise the prerequisites to safeguard security and privacy of consumers. This will require appropriate privacy regulation as well as regulation and sector agreements on network security with identification and authentication. In addition to trust and security, other important issues in the acceptance and uptake of the technological developments are value and convenience. The users should be convinced of the value of the new products and services for addressing their needs and it should be very convenient to use these new products and services. This convenience is very much related to the user interfaces and the optimal fine-tuning with consumers’ wished and needs, but it is also related to interoperability of systems and networks. This operability requires sector agreements on standards and protocols, where necessary supported by government regulation (National Research Council Canada, 2005; EMCC, 2003).



Interdisciplinary collaboration for converging innovations One of the main characteristics of the expected trends in innovation in the sector is the convergence of different functions, products and services into solutions addressing various market needs. This convergence requires interdisciplinary, cross-functional and cross-sectoral approaches to designing new products and services. This interdisciplinary collaboration is an important challenge and requires the development of interdisciplinary studies, but also the establishment of interdisciplinary research centres and stimulating and supporting interdisciplinary research projects. Also within companies, various disciplines should be put together in R&D teams, also including non-technical job functions such as marketing and sales professionals. Special attention is needed for the issue of intellectual property, as multidisciplinary collaboration is expected to use more and more ‘open-source’ science in which IP is owned by the collaborating parties or the society. Interdisciplinary collaboration is further stimulated by putting research centres and manufacturing facilities close to each other. This creates effective networks of knowledge transfer and attracts qualified human capital minimises delay and expedites the knowledge transfer (National Research Council Canada, 2005; European Commission, 2006c). Coping with the dynamic and fast changing sector Another important element is that developments in the sector go very fast, as well as that markets applying the electrical and optical equipment are very dynamic. Product cycles are extremely short and science and technology developments go very fast. Firms should be able to anticipate these fast changes and speed up their innovation processes. Important obstacles in timely integrating new science and technologies are the lack of standards and regulatory guidelines for using the new technologies as well as the lack of indicators for confirming the efficacy of the new technologies. Governments have problems coping with the fast changing environment as well. For example, in regulation the government cannot keep up and this can hinder further developments in the sector. Governments should be well informed about future developments in science and technology as well as trends in the sector. The government should use foresight information to anticipate the expected changes and to be able to act proactively (National Research Council Canada, 2005; European Commission, 2006a). Breakthroughs require freedom and flexibility in R&D History shows that it is impossible to predict the actual science and technology developments and to foresee the uptake of these developments in society. Often, breakthrough innovations and transformations are not foreseen and come from unexpected angles. This requires that science and technology have enough freedom to develop their own path without a lot of steering on specific applications. Hence, this requires enough resources for more fundamental research and interdisciplinary research, as well as stimulating creative and fresh approaches. Instead of only supporting the traditional disciplines and established research groups, more support must become available to new and interdisciplinary disciplines and research groups (National Research Council Canada, 2005). ICT is everywhere Even more than at present, ICT will become fully integrated in our daily life. We will all use ICT equipment and services both in our work and at home. This requires better e-skills for everyone, not just for employees using ICT at work. Education and training in e-skills should start at a very young age. Moreover, education and training in e-skills should also be provided to those who are older or are less socially active, in order to provide equal opportunities for everyone and to stimulate and support active participation in society. Also from a commercial point of view it is important that people have the necessary e-skills, so that they know how to use the new products and services, that they will be able to fully exploit the opportunities provided, and that they can articulate their needs and user requirements for new products and services.



5.3 Structural change

Convergence of technologies and markets Electrical and optical equipment is used in many different markets and these markets will increasingly converge. Digital convergence brings together computing, communications, contents and consumer electronics. In addition, the electronic and optical equipment industry will increasingly follow the convergence of various technologies, brining together ICT, biotechnology, nanotechnology and cognitive sciences. This results in a wealth of opportunities and is blurring the traditional boundaries between market sectors and technology domains. One global market for electrical and optical equipments together with digital services will emerge. This full convergence will substantially influence the structure of the electrical and optical equipment sector. The sector will become less identifiable as a discrete sector and border between the various actors in the value chain will disappear. Firms will increasingly be defined by their role, e.g. as system developer, content provider, assembler, more than by traditional market segments or technology domains. Moreover, the production process will further modularise, further fragmenting the value chain and requiring increased re-organisation of the production processes and chains at the international level (ISTAG, 2006). Increasing share of ICT services According to the OECD (2008a) Information Technology Outlook 2008, growth in the ICT sector is especially driven by growth in ICT services. ICT services have share of more than two-thirds of the total ICT sector value added and it is growing. In the period 1996-2006 ICT services grew faster than total business services, driving the growth of the ICT sector. Although ICT manufacturing grew fast until 2000, over the period 1995-2006 ICT manufacturing grew less than manufacturing as a whole. Also in relation to employment, the role of ICT services is increasing. In the OECD countries in 2006, 10 million people were employed in ICT services and 5 million people in ICT manufacturing. Again, employment in ICT services grew faster than in total business services, while employment in manufacturing is declining. ICT equipment and services also become increasingly integrated, not only in the final offer to the customer (a product that comes along with a service and v.v.) , but also in the design phase. Moreover, ICT equipment is increasingly sold as a service, rather than a single product with a service attached. Internationalisation supports R&D in medical instruments While markets for consumer electronics, computers and electrical machinery are rather international, markets for medical instruments are highly segmented and mainly nationally oriented. This implies that they are often too small for extensive R&D investments to be worthwhile as well as for efficient, capital-intensive production techniques to be implemented. Companies must therefore expand internationally and further concentration of the sector is needed in order to reach optimal scales for extensive innovation (Thumm, 2000).



6 First elements of scenarios

The following section presents a first sketch of four different scenarios for the possible future pathways the electronic and optical equipment sector in Europe may take, highlighting different directions in societal development and consumer preferences and choices, as well as in speed of development. The scenario sketches below highlight how the different scenarios could look like as input for workshop discussion and to be further developed. They are open for discussion and should not be seen as already fixed. These first sketches of possible directions is based on previous scenario studies made for the electronic and optical equipment sector. Previous scenario studies used as input for this first sketch include:

• Electra (2008). Twenty solutions for growth and investment to 2020 and beyond. Brussels: Electra

• Brandes, F., A. Lejour, G. Verweij, F. van der Zee (2007) The Future of Manufacturing in Europe, final report for Framework Service Contract B2/EMTR/05/091-FC, 26th June 2007

• Popper, R., I. Miles, L. Green and K. Flanagan (2004) First Scenario Synthesis Report, Deliverable for FISTERA project, prepared for the Information Society Technologies Futures Forum

• European Monitoring Centre on Change – EMCC (2003) Sector Futures – Shaping the future of ICT, Dublin: European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions

• Van der Zee, F., A. van der Giessen, S. van der Molen, D. Maier (2009) Investing in the Future of Jobs and Skills - Scenarios, Implications and Options in Anticipation of Future Skills and Knowledge Needs, Sector report, Computer, Electronic and Optical Products Sectors, study for the Comprehensive Sectoral Analysis of Emerging Competences and Economic Activities in the European Union, Lot 7, European Commission, DG Employment, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities, project VC/2007/0866

Scenarios are plausible future paths of developments rather than predictions or forecasts. Scenarios are constructed by superposing a few main drivers that can potentially have a major impact on the sector and that can evolve in several different directions. The key drivers selected here include: • Personalisation is a key demand driver for the sector. Full mass customisation and

personalisation could be contrasted to more mass consumption and products targeting more aggregated market segments.

• Speed of development is a key characteristic for the sector. Fast technological change, extended adoption of new technologies and full digital convergence could be contrasted to slower technological changes, less convergence of technologies and markets, and increasing resistance to adopting ICT products and services.

• Trust and security are main requirements for the sector. Trustworthy and secure ICT networks, products and services (guaranteed by government regulations, self-regulation and standards) could be contrasted to unregulated networks, products and services enabling full action, but resulting in more anxiety and disputes.

• Sustainability is a key demand driver for the sector. Smart solutions from ICT equipment for improving energy efficiency and sustainable energy production, as well as ICT equipment, which are sustainable, could be contrasted to a smaller contribution of ICT equipment to a sustainable society or even failure of the sector to develop sustainable products and services.



Scenario 1 Me, myself and I in a networked society Consumers will fully embrace technological solutions for their demands and wishes. They will have ubiquitous access to fully personalised and context-dependent information and services. Consumers will be served by integrated, interactive, embedded and user-friendly equipment and networks enabling them to manage an optimal work life balance, supporting them in living healthy, providing efficient and convenient transport, enabling flexible and convenient lifelong learning, supporting them in convenient shopping and entertainment. Full digital convergence will blur traditional boundaries between various equipment and functions. Although, consumers demand full attention for their personal needs, they also would like to continuously stay in contact with their family, friends and peers, sharing emotions, thoughts and experiences. The specific needs of an ageing population will be addressed. There will be a strong progress in recycling of materials, as well as in designing energy-efficient ICT equipment. Consumers will be fully aware of the effects the new services and products might have on their privacy and security. They demand trustworthy and secure ICT networks, products and services and they will be very careful in using their digital identity. Government regulations in combination with self regulation ensure secure use of networks and services as well as protection of privacy. Scenario 2 Up, close and personal Like in scenario 1, consumers will fully embrace technological solutions for their demands and wishes. They will have ubiquitous access to fully personalised and context-dependent information and services. They will share all their thoughts, emotions and experiences with a large social network. The specific needs of an ageing population will be addressed. ICT equipment will increasingly be produced in a sustainable way and will support energy efficiency. Consumers will have multiple, but integrated digital identities for managing access to and use of personalised products and services. Because of a lack of regulation concerning security and privacy of the networks, products and services offered, personal information is freely available to the society. However, this does not really hinder the adoption of the newly developed technologies as consumers do not worry about their privacy and security. Scenario 3 Massive & Disposable Instead of the full mass customisation and personalisation in scenarios 1 and 2, the electrical and optical equipment sector will develop products serving more aggregated market segments. Although consumers favour the idea of tailor-made and personalised offers, they are also very price-sensitive and somewhat anxious about further integration of technology into their lives. Most of all they want cheap, easy-to-understand and trustworthy products and services. There will be very strict and also nationally oriented regulation on privacy and security-related issues. It will be almost impossible to develop and market personalised and converged products and services that integrate data from different sources and connect individuals in networks. Together with the very price-sensitive and anxious consumer, this results in a slowdown in innovation and technological change. This will also hinder the development of a more sustainable sector. The sector will fail to integrate the cradle-to-cradle philosophy and fail to develop energy-efficient products and production processes as well as intelligent solutions to support energy efficiency. The sector will continue developing cheap and disposable products, targeting aggregated market segments at best.



Scenario 4 Free state Regulation concerning privacy and security, as well as requirements regarding standards will simply be absent. Unregulated networks, products and services enable full action and the development of all kinds of products and services. However, the question is whether consumers will be willing to use these products and services. The lack of good, supportive regulation will likely result in more anxiety among consumers and disputes about privacy and security issues. This ‘free state’ for the sector will result in an increasing resistance against ICT products and services, slowing down the adoption and ultimately also the innovation. There will mainly be products and services targeting aggregated market segments, based on incremental innovations. Consumers will be very price-sensitive, which will also result in cheap and disposable products. This will certainly not contribute to more sustainable products and production processes.



7 Key questions

This section presents some questions for workshop participants, which arise directly from the previous sections. Science & Technology Drivers:

• Are key science and technology drivers missing? Which ones? • What are the most important science and technology drivers? • Are the so-called technology laws still valid? Are new technology laws emerging? • What is the status of technology development in these technology drivers? What

are important potential bottlenecks / barriers in the development of these drivers? • Developments in the sector are increasingly multidisciplinary. What will be

important new combinations of disciplines in this sector? Demand Drivers:

• ICT is everywhere, hence many demand drivers are relevant here. What are the most important demand drivers for the sector?

• Which demand drivers are especially strong in Europe and which one in other parts of the world? What are European lead markets and which lead markets are more located in Asia?

• In general, manufacturing of electrical and optical equipment has moved to Asia, but is manufacturing closer to the market important in certain demand areas or innovation themes?

Emerging Innovation Themes:

• Are relevant emerging innovation themes (important ones in 2015, not today) missing?

• What are the most important emerging innovation themes? • What can we expect about possible future market developments around the

innovation themes? • What innovation themes can be expected in the far future?

Firm and R&D strategies:

• R&D is moving ‘downwards’ in the value chain, which implies that R&D activities are increasingly performed by the smaller component suppliers. However, they have less resources for performing R&D. What could be new cost-sharing mechanisms for covering the costs of R&D?

• How can open innovation processes be designed to tackle the major challenges in the sector (globalisation, eco-innovations ect), while bringing together various disciplines and different actors in the value chain?

• How can user involvement in the innovation processes in the sectors be improved? • What is the EU position in the new design and manufacturing technologies?

Structural and institutional implications

• What structural and institutional implications / drivers / barriers are missing? What are the most important ones?

• How will the increasing share of services influence the structure and business of ICT manufacturing in the coming years?

• What will be the most important science / knowledge fields (in terms of skills) in the future, given the emerging innovation themes? What is Europe’s position? Where should Europe improve?



• Can (and to what extent) various technology developments and research initiatives be aligned to increase efficiency of research investments?

• Road-mapping is often used in semiconductor development. Is road-mapping also a valuable tool for other equipment fields (e.g. in optics)?

• The role of ICT equipment and services in our daily life is increasing, to what extent will the role of consumers’ trust be important for acceptance of new ICT products and services?

• What could be a good way to protect intellectual property in open innovation processes?

Scenarios:

• What are the most important drivers to be selected for the scenarios? • What could be the most likely scenario? • Is there a most desirable scenario?

Policy implications:

• Full digital convergence, the integration of multiple data sources and further personalisation of networks and systems come along with risks regarding privacy and security. How can privacy and security of citizens be enhanced? What is the role of governmental regulation?

• How can consumers’ trust and confidence be further enhanced? What is the role of regulation and education here?

• There is an increasing demand for sustainable products and services as well as a pressure on the sector to increase the energy efficiency and sustainability of the sector’s products and production processes. How can regulation support this?

• As networks and systems will increasingly interact and become interconnected, standards are necessary to enable this. Standards are also necessary to develop user-friendly and convenient applications for consumers. What is the role of governmental regulation in combination with self-regulation?

• How can multidisciplinary approaches be further stimulated by governments? • What can governments do to attract more high-educated employees to the sector

and to promote the development of new, interdisciplinary skills for the present employees.



References

Accenture (2008) Changes You’ll See in 2020, http://www.accenture.com/Global/Services/By_Industry/Retail/R_and_I/RetailIn2020.htm Brandes, F., A. Lejour, G. Verweij, F. van der Zee (2007) The Future of Manufacturing in

Europe, final report for Framework Service Contract B2/EMTR/05/091-FC, 26th June 2007

eGovRTD2020 (2006) Roadmapping eGovernment RTD 2020, Visions and Research

Measures towards European Citizenship and Innovative Government, Deliverable D 2.1: Scenarios report. 2006

EITO (2007), European Information Technology Observatory 2007, Berlin: EITO. Electra (2008). Twenty solutions for growth and investment to 2020 and beyond. Brussels:

Electra. European Monitoring Centre on Change - EMCC (2003) Sector Futures –Policies, issues

and the future of ICT, Dublin: European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions

European Monitoring Centre on Change – EMCC (2003) Sector Futures – Shaping the

future of ICT, Dublin: European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions

ESIA (2006). The European semiconductor industry: 2005 Competitiveness report.

Brussels: ESIA. Eucomed (2007). Competitiveness and Innovativeness of the European Medical

Technology Industry: Evaluation of the Survey Results. Brussels: Eucomed European Commission (2004) Enabling Good Health for All – A reflection process for a

new EU health strategy, by David Byrne, Commissioner for Health and Consumer Protection, Luxembourg

European Commission (2006a) European competitiveness report 2006. Communication

from the Commission. COM(2006) 697 final European Commission (2006b) Keep Europe Moving – Sustainable mobility for our

continent, Mid-term review of the European Commission’s 2001 transport White Paper, Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities

European Commission (2006c), Fostering the Competitiveness of Europe’s ICT Industry,

ICT Task Force report, 2006 European Commission (2009) The Future of Transport: Focus Groups’ Report, 20

February 2009, Brussels available at: http://ec.europa.eu/transport/strategies/2009_future_of_transport_en.htm Eurostat (2008a), European business 2007 – Facts and figures, Strasbourg: Eurostat.

Sectoral Innovation Foresight Interim Report - Electrical 42


Eurostat (2008b) ‘Ageing characterizes the demographic perspectives of the European societies’, Eurostat Statistics in focus, 72/2008, Population and social conditions, by Konstantinos Giannakouris, Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities

FISTERA (2005a), IST at the Service of a Caning Europe by 2020: learning from world

views, edited by Blackman, C., summary Report of the FISTERA Final Conference, 16-17- June, Sevilla.

FISTERA (2005b) WP1 – Review and analysis of national foresight, D1.3 – Conclusions

from the synthesis of national foresight studies – A summary, by Michael Rader, ITAS, 28 July 2005

FMER (2007), ICT 2020: research for innovation, Report on High-Tech strategy from the

German Federal Ministry of Economy and Research, Bonn, Berlin 2007. Forum for the Future (2007) Retail Futures, supported by Unilever and Tesco, London Grunwald, A. (2007), Converging technologies: visions, increased contingencies of the

condition humana and search for orientation, Futures, 39, p380–392 Guerrieri, P. et al. (2006), Evaluation Models and Tools for Assessment of Innovation and

Sustainable Development at the EU level: Modeling ICT as a General Purpose Technology, College of Europe, Final Report, Brugge.

Hernández Guevara, H., A. Tübke, A. Brandsma (2008) The 2008 EU Industrial R&D

Investment Scoreboard, EUR 23530 EN – DG Research – Joint Research Centre, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Commission

Hoofdbedrijfschap Detailhandel – HBD (2006) Over the Hill 2020: Toekomstboek

Detailhandel, prepared by Van de Bunt, 5 August 2006 IDA (2005), Technology and You Singapore: Infocomm Foresight 2015, Infocomm

Technology Roadmap, IPTS (2008), Internet of Things in 2020: A ROADMAP FOR THE FUTURE, workshop

report by DG Information Society & Media and EPoss, 5 september 2008. ISTAG (2006), Shaping Europe’s Future Through ICT, Brussels: ISTAG. Institute for Prospective Technology Studies - IPTS (2003) Science and Technology

Roadmapping: Ambient Intelligence in Everyday Life (AmI@Life), edited by M. Friedewald (Fraunhofer Institute Systems and Innovation Research ISI) and O. Da Costa (Institute for Prospective Technology Studies IPTS), June 2003

Institute for Prospective Technology Studies – IPTS (2004) The Future Impact of ICTs on

Environmental Sustainability, edited by C. Rodriguez Casal, C. van Wunnik, L. Delgado Sanco, J.C. Burgelman, and P. Desruelle, August 2004, EUR 21384 EN

Institute for Prospective Technology Studies – IPTS (2003), Science and Technology

Roadmapping:Ambient Intelligence in Everyday Life (AmI@Life), compiled and edited by M. Friedewald and O. Da Costa, June 2003, Sevilla.



NASA (2006), INTERNATIONAL ASSESSMENT OF RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT

IN ROBOTICS, WTEC Panel Report, edited by Bekey et al, January 2006, Baltimore National Research Council Canada (2005) Looking Forward: S&T for the 21st Century,

Foresight Consolidation Report, NRC Renewal Project, August 2005 Nordman, A. (2004), Converging Technologies – Shaping the Future of European

Societies, commissioned by European Commission DG for Research, Brussels. OECD (2005). “Measuring Globalisation. OECD Economic Globalisation Indicators.”

OECD, Paris. OECD (2008). The Internationalisation of Business R&D: Evidence, Impacts and

Implications. Paris: OECD. OECD (2008a). OECD Information Technology Outlook, Paris: OECD Pavitt, K. (1984), Sectoral patterns of technical change: towards a taxonomy and a theory,

Research Policy, 13, 6, 343-373 Peneder, M. (2008), Entrepreneurship, Technological Regimes and Productivity Growth.

Integrated Classifications of Firms and Sectors, EU KLEMS Working Paper N° 28. Pfahl, R.C., McElroy, J.B., Emerging Markets and Emerging Technologies, HDP '07.

International Symposium on High Density packaging and Microsystem Integration, 2007, 26-28 June 2007, p1-5

Photonics2001 (2006), Towards a Bright Future for Europe: Strategic Research Agenda in

Photonics, April 2006, Dusseldorf Popper, R., I. Miles, L. Green and K. Flanagan (2004) First Scenario Synthesis Report,

Deliverable for FISTERA project, prepared for the Information Society Technologies Futures Forum

Rieppo, P. (2005), How to Respond to Changes in the Semiconductor Value Chain,

Gartner Research Risø National Laboratory (2005) Risø Energy Report 4 – The Future Energy System –

Distributed Production and Use, edited by H. Larsen and L. Sønderberg Petersen, October 2005

Robson, M., Townsed, J. and Pavitt, K., Sectoral patterns of production and use of

innovations in the UK: 1945-1983, Research Policy, 17, 1-14 Scherer, F.M. (1982), Inter-Industry technology flows in the United States, 11, 4, 227-245. Siemens (2005), Pictures of the future – the magazine on research and innovation, Fall

2005, Munchen SusChem (2005), Innovating for a Better Future: Sustainable Chemistry Strategic

Research Agenda 2005, Brussels



Thumm, N. (2000). The Impact of EU-Regulation on Innovation in the European Industry: The Impact of Single Market Regulation on Innovation: Regulatory Reform and Experiences of Firms in the Medical Device Industry. Seville: Institute for Prospective Technological Studies.

TNSGlobal (2008) New Future in Store – How will shopping change between now and

2015, Research Report, May 2008 Van der Zee, F., A. van der Giessen, S. van der Molen, D. Maier (2009) Investing in the

Future of Jobs and Skills - Scenarios, Implications and Options in Anticipation of Future Skills and Knowledge Needs, Sector report, Computer, Electronic and Optical Products Sectors, study for the Comprehensive Sectoral Analysis of Emerging Competences and Economic Activities in the European Union, Lot 7, European Commission, DG Employment, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities, project VC/2007/0866

Van Eecke, P, Pinto Fonseca, P., Egyedi, T. (2007), EU Study on the specific policy needs

for ICT standardization, prepared for the European Commission, Brussels: DLA Piper, TUDelft, Uninova.

Wintjes, R. & Dunnewijk, T. (2008), Sectoral Innovation Systems in Europe: the case of the

ICT sector, Europe INNOVA: Innovation Watch, Maastricht: UNU-MERIT. World Health Organization (2008) The World Health Report 2008: primary health care now

more than ever, Geneva: WHO


sectoral innovation foresight€¦ · sectoral innovation foresight interim report – electrical...

Documents