(electro)mobility - quo vadis?€¦ · (electro)mobility - quo vadis? mega trends . 6 . renewable...

(Electro)mobility - quo vadis?

1 Vector E-Mobility Engineering Day 2017 - 27.4.2017 28.04.2017

Dr.-Ing Joachim Fetzer

Agenda

1. Mega trends and their influence on (e-)mobility 2. Automotive market – prognosis 3. Facts and figures eMobility

• Batteries – price, energy density • Charging infrastructure • Ressources • CO2 footprint

4. China – the eMobility leader and driver? 5. Conclusion and outlook

2 28.04.2017 Vector E-Mobility Engineering Day 2017 - 27.4.2017

(Electro)mobility - quo vadis? Mega trends

3 28.04.2017

Mega cities

Smart cities

Renewable energy/electricity

Distributed energy systems

Internet of things, big data, AI

Smart grids and smart renewables

Robotics and self driving cars

New business models

Eco-System (e)Mobility

Perfomance and cost of batteries

Vector E-Mobility Engineering Day 2017 - 27.4.2017


4

Mega cities (> 10mio inhabitants)

28.04.2017

2015*: 28 Mega cities 2030*: 41 Mega cities 1950*: 30% lived in cities** 2050*: 65% will live in cities** * UN report 2014 ** > 1mio inhabitants



6


28.04.2017

95% of all PV systems worldwide have been installed between 2012 – 2016


1997 2013


10


28.04.2017 Vector E-Mobility Engineering Day 2017 - 27.4.2017


11 28.04.2017

Open SW platforms (e.g. Android in

vehicles)

Battery Leasing / Second Life Car = part of cloud and smart grid

Intermodal mobility


New business models


14 28.04.2017

Mega cities

Smart cities


Distributed energy systems

Internet of things, big data, AI

Smart grids and smart renewables


New business models

Eco-System (e)Mobility

Perfomance and cost of batteries


Agenda





(Electro)mobility - quo vadis? Automotive market – prognosis

total market 105 - 108 mio. 97 – 99 mio. 89 mio.

2.2

1.9

[mio

. veh

icle

s]

4.5 5.2

EV Electric Vehicle HEV Hybrid Electric Vehicle PHEV Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle

Vehicle sales PC incl. LCV<6t

28.04.2017

Source: Studies, e.g. CAM


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2015 2020 2025

Diagrammtitel

HEV PHEV EV upper prognosis EV + PHEV

16

[year]

Agenda





(Electro)mobility - quo vadis? Facts and figures eMobility - batteries

18

1

City- EV Vehicle classes Mini Sub-compact Compact

2

Compact class Vehicle classes Compact- and middle class Compact class SUVs Roadster

3

Premium class Vehicle classes Upper- and higher middle Luxury Large-SUVs Sport

EV dedicated vehicle platforms drives differentiation of EV Battery by: Cost, energy density, power and lifetime

28.04.2017

Source: Robert Bosch GmbH, 2016


0

200

400

600

800

1000

2016 2020 2025

Small economical limit

Small technical limit

Compact/Middle economical limit

Compact/Middle technical limit

Premium economical limit

Premium technical limit


22

Assuming pack cost 20% of vehicle sales price is economical limit:

City EV and medium class vehicles driving range limited mainly by battery cost Premium EV driving range limited by volumetric energy density

Driv

ing

Rang

e [k

m]

Premises battery volume • City EV: 130 l • Compact/Middle: 280 l • Premium: 320 l

1 City EV economical limit City EV technical limit 2 Compact/Middle economical limit Compact/Middle technical limit 3 Premium economical limit Premium technical limit

28.04.2017 Vector E-Mobility Engineering Day 2017 - 27.4.2017



23 28.04.2017

0

100

200

300

400

500

2015 2020 2025

Cost

[EU

R/kW

h]

Cell Pack

€ € €

1

2

€ € €

3

€ € €




24 28.04.2017

0

200

400

600

800

1000

2015 2020 2025

Ener

gy d

ensi

ty [W

h/l]

1

2

3

Cell Pack



(Electro)mobility - quo vadis? Facts and figures eMobility - charging

26 28.04.2017

Europe Charging power 3 kW 50 kW 150 kW

Premium services 22 kW 350 kW

Infrastructure will provide enough power for Fast Charging in the future Charging infrastructure is the crucial resource for EV breakthrough Impact of fast charging (1C…3C) on relevant battery KPIs is limited

Asia Charging power 3 kW 50 kW 100 kW

Premium services

North America

Charging power 3 kW 50 kW 150kW

Premium services 350 kW

Source: Robert Bosch GmbH, 2016 Vector E-Mobility Engineering Day 2017 - 27.4.2017

Li-Ion Batteries go Automotive

1) http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity 2) The economics of Lithium, 11th edition, 2009, Roskill Information

(Electro)mobility - quo vadis? Facts and figures eMobility - resources

Resources 90m EV*/Year Worldwide Production Reserve

Aluminium, Al 9.03 Mio. t 92 Mio. t 12150 Mio. t 1)

Copper, Cu 7.02 Mio. t 16 Mio. t 550 Mio. t 1)

Lithium, Li 700,000 t 27,000 t 28 Mio. t 2)

Nickel, Ni 1.31 Mio t 1.6 Mio. t 70 Mio. t 1)

Cobalt, Co 700,000 t 35,300 t 7.1 Mio. t 1)

Mangan, Mn 4.8 Mio. t 14 Mio. t 500 Mio. t 1)

*EV Battery: 60 kWh, NCM111 cathode

27 Vector E-Mobility Engineering Day 2017 - 27.4.2017

(Electro)mobility - quo vadis? Facts and figures eMobility - CO2 footprint

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

0 15000 30000 45000

CO2 footprint ICE PC vs. electric PC for German electricity mix

ICE PC Electric PC

29

8000

2000

4000

6000

[kg

CO2_

eq]

[km] 15000 30000 45000 German electricity mix in 2015: 535 g CO2/kWh Battery production (40 kWh): Equivalent of 2,500 kg CO2 (from resources to end-of-life Sources: Shell analysis as well as Prof. Dr. Karl-Heinz Pettinger, Hochschule Landshut Assumptions: • 7 l/100 km: 165 g CO2/km (tank to wheel) • 18 kWh/100 km • 15,000 km/a average driving distance

App. 2.5 years for break-even for overall CO2 footprint


Agenda





(Electro)mobility - quo vadis? China – the eMobility leader and driver?




Time in years to reach 100m users from launch in China



0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

CN US NO GB FR DE

EV + PHEV

EV + PHEV

[No.

of P

HEV

+ EV

sold

in 2

016]



0

0,5

1

1,5

2

CN US GB FR DE

EV + PHEV

EV + PHEV

[Mar

ket s

hare

of P

HEV

+ EV

in %

201

6]



0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

CN US NO GB FR DE

EV + PHEV

EV + PHEV

[Mar

ket s

hare

of P

HEV

+ EV

in %

201

6]



0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Electric buses

Electric buses [year]

[Ann

ual s

ales

of e

lect

ric b

uses

in C

hina

]

Sales of buses in China in 2016: 503,000

(Electro)mobility - quo vadis? Automotive market – 2016 vs. 2015


Source: CAM

Agenda





(Electro)mobility - quo vadis? Conclusion and outlook • Battery technology ready for automotive series production

nevertheless further cost down necessary • EV CO2 footprint already with today‘s electricity mix* better as

with ICE driven cars • (Fast) charging infrastructure crucial (also to reduce battery costs per

vehicle) • China is trying to lead the NEV** market worldwide • Smart renewable energy will provide cheaper electricity costs


*Germany ** NEV: New Energy Vehicle

(electro)mobility - quo vadis?€¦ · (electro)mobility - quo vadis? mega trends . 6 . renewable...

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