eionet-workshop on forward looking assessments, 19-20 may 2008, copenhagen 1 matthias koller ines...

1EIONET-Workshop on Forward Looking Assessments,

19-20 May 2008, Copenhagen

Matthias Koller

Ines Flügel

Julia Dose

Federal Environmental Agency (UBA)

Section I 1.1 Fundamental Aspects and Environmental Strategies

Quality assurance for forward looking assessment studies in the Federal Environment Agency-

on the way to good practice guidelines



2) Forward

looking studies at the

the UBA

3) Problems and

Challenges

4) Approaches for quality

improvement and assurance

1) About the UBA

Agenda



The Federal Environment Agency (UBA) ...



• 1974: Established by law as an independent Federal authority

• 1986 assigned to Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature

Conservation and Nuclear Safety

• Largest scientific Environmental Agency on Federal level

• 1.126 Employees in 1.000 positions

• 108 mio. Euro budget (incl. 20 mio. € research funds)

• 7 Locations and 22 air quality measuring stations

Some facts about the UBA



• Assessing the state of the environment

• Advising in environmental questions (esp. support of the Federal

Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear

Safety)

• Collecting Data and Providing environmental information

• Executing Statutory Provisions/Law Enforcement

• Educating the General Public

Tasks of the UBA



strategic topics of the UBA

climate protection

sustainable development in Germany, EU, worldwide

demand / consumption as a cause for pressure on human health and natural resources

prevention of environment related

health risks

spatial and cross-media protection of

natural livelihood

transport as a cause for pressure on human health

and natural resources

production of and trade with goods and services as a cause for pressure on natural resources



• Around 10 scenario studies ongoing and about 20 models in use –> lack of overview

• A wide range of topics is covered (but which ones exactly)

• Diverse methods of scenario studies (always the appropriate one?)

• Varying types of models (transparency, accuracy, …)

• Problem of divergent basic assumptions (lack of consistency)

• Data collection, storage and updating (and avoidance of redundant efforts)

• Using consistent data sources

Challenges concerning the foward looking assessments at the UBA



• (Inventory) analysis of forward looking assessment tools (scenario

studies, prognostic models …)

• „SWOT“ - Analysis

• Workshop with external experts

• Guidelines for good practice

• Case study

First steps towards a better practice



IKARUS

RAUMIS/GAS-EM

WI/DLR

TREMOD-4

REMO/WETTREG

Energy reference scenario

Long term scenarios

Policy scenarios III

Policy scenarios IV

Reference scenarioEfficiency scenarioSustainability scenario

Expansion of renewable energies - scenario

Reference scenario

BASIS IBASIS IINatureConservationPlus INatureConservationPlus II

NAWARO-AREAS BAU I scenarioBAU II scenario

Models

BASiS Reference scenarioSustainability scenario

Scenarios of emissions from agriculture

Climate scenarios

Scenario studies Scenarios

A1BA1B2

Model basic scenario

Reductions scenario IIReductions scenario I

Measures-scenario

Additional-measures-scenario

FEA-energy reference scenarioo

Basic scenarioScenario 1

IssuesReference scenario ofEnquete-commission

PROGNOS/EWI

Inventory Analysis of the Scenarios and Modells at the UBA



GH

G/c

lima

te

Air

qua

lity/

-

Air

po

llutio

n

Wa

ter

stre

ss

Wa

ter

qu

ality

Eco

logy

/ B

iod

ive

rsity

So

il q

ualit

y

Demographic development +++ +++ +++ +++ +++ ++Sociocultural development +++ ++ ++ ++ ++ ++Macroeconomic development +++ ++ ++ + ++ +Technological development +++ +++ +++ +++ ++ +++

Sectoral developmentEnergy +++ +++ ++ ++ ++ ++Transport +++ +++ + + ++ +Agriculture ++ ++ ++ +++ +++ +++Forestry ++ + ++ ++ +++ +++households and services ++ ++ +++ ++ ++ +Waste and material flows ++ ++ + +++ ++ +++

+++ strong ++ medium + weak

Environmental Areas covered by UBA scenario studies



Links of models

VSDRAUMIS/GAS-EM LOTOS-EUROS IDEM BERN

RAINS

Immission of air componentsin ecosystems

Soil chemical status

Changes in biodiversity

AIR SOIL

Emissionsprognoses

Emissions from agriculture

Areas of concentrationof air components



80

80,5

81

81,5

82

82,5

83

83,5

84

84,5

85

2000 2010 2020

po

pu

lati

on

[m

io]

energy referencescenario

policy scenarios III

long term scenarios

expansion of renew ableenergies scenario

Consistency of basic assumptions (1)



energy source prices [€/GJ]

0

1

2

3

4

5

2000 2010 2020

cru

de

oil

energy referencescenario

policy scenarios III

long term scenarios

expansion of renew ableenergies scenario

Consistency of basic assumptions (2)



G

R

YY N N

1. Q ualita tive2. Q uantitative3. Hybrid

Type

OrientationAnticipatory Exploratory

2

3

1

2

3

1

baseline scenariopolicy scenario

Furtherdifferentiations

7

1. Energy reference scenario2. Policy scenarios III3. Policy scenarios IV4. Long term scenarios5. Expansion of renewable energies scenario6. NAWARO-AREAS7. BASiS8. Climate scenarios9. Scenarios of emissions from agriculture

Classification of UBA scenario studies



G

R

JJ N N

1. Q ualita tive2. Q uantitative3. hybrid

Type

OrientationAnticipatory Exploratory

2

3

1

2

3

1

baseline scenariopolicy scenario

Furtherdifferentiations

1. Meadows: Limits to Growth

2. GEO-3 Scenarios (RIVM/UNEP,2003)

3. Branch Points: Global Scenarios and Human Choice (SEI/GSG,)

4. Bending the curve: Toward Global Sustainability (SEI/GSG, 1998)

5. Scenarios Europe 2010: Five possible futures for Europe (European Commission Forward Studies Unit, 1999)

6. VISIONS (European Commission, 2001)

7. Special Report on Emission Scenarios (IPCC, 2000)

8. Global Scenarios 2000-2050 (WBCSD, 1998)

…and of international scenario studies



• Scientificness requirements (reproducibility,

transparency,…)

• difficulty of integrating existing scenario studies

• credibility of scenario studies, esp. qualitative storylines

• appropriate use of qualitative and quantitative scenarios:

main drawbacks, combining information

Workshop on quality assurance within scenario studies – discussion points



Participants agree on:

– the necessity and usefulness of a continuous dialog about these

topics

– the needs for transparency in scenario assumptions (disclosure

and open documentation) and underlying models

– validation of / agreeing on underlying assumptions

– the importance of an appropriate participation of all relevant

stakeholders

Workshop on quality assurance within scenario studies - results (1)



Participants disagree on:

– The necessary minimum requirements for scenario studies

concerning standards of scientificness (esp. reproducibility)

– the optimum use of different types of scenarios approaches with

respect to different types of problems

– how to tackle the credibility problem (qualitative vs. quantitative

scenarios?)

Workshop on quality assurance within in scenario studies – results (2)



Objectivestechnical, organisational and communicative improvements of the

scenario work within the UBA

by good practice proposals with respect to the: …• awareness and creativity in the initial stage• used approaches and methods• participation of stakeholders• definition of design and scope of the scenario studies• use of existing knowledge and avoidance of redundant work • inclusion of surprises and unexpected developments• dealing with uncertainties

Guidelines for good practice



continued:

• integration of peer reviews• sensitivity analyses • consistency, plausibility, up-to-dateness and representativeness of

data and assumptions establishing and maintaining a common database

• uniform terminology => glossary• transparency• ex-post evaluation• continuation and update of scenario studies • documentation and communication• use for policy consultation• …….

Guidelines for good practice (2)



Matthias [email protected]

Ines Flü[email protected]

Julia [email protected]

www.umweltbundesamt.de

Thank you for your attention!

eionet-workshop on forward looking assessments, 19-20 may 2008, copenhagen 1 matthias koller ines...

Documents

looking studies

uba slide

foward looking assessments

information workshop

uba agenda slide

scenario studies ongoing

international scenario

global scenarios