early january 2017 monthly economic indicators and industry trends

METAL POWDER INDUSTRIES FEDERATION PRESENTS

MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS & INDUSTRY TRENDS

Early January, 2017

CONFIDENTIAL WITH DISTRIBUTION TO MPIF MEMBERS ONLY 2

• LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS• DOW JONES / FINANCIAL MARKETS TREND• TOTAL MFG SHIPMENTS/INVENTORIES, DURABLE ORDERS, RETAIL TRADE• PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX (PMI), US, Europe, China• CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX• HOUSING STARTS

• LAGGING ECONOMIC INDICATORS• GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) – US• FORECASTED GDP / GLOBAL GDP OUTLOOK• INFLATION• UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

• NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF ECONOMISTS OUTLOOK

Monthly Agenda - Economic Data


• NORTH AMERICA LIGHT DUTY VEHICLE SALES & PRODUCTION• GLOBAL LIGHT DUTY SALES – AUTOS, TRUCKS, US, EUROPE, CHINA• HEAT TREATING• AEROSPACE• SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY• TOTAL PRODUCTION INDEX vs. MANUFACTURING INDEX• FIREARMS PRODUCTION• ENERGY

• SPOT PRICE – CRUDE OIL & NATURAL GAS• RIG COUNT – OIL & GAS

Monthly Agenda – Industry Drivers


• IRON ORE AND IRON POWDER SHIPMENTS• IRON POWDER IMPORTS• IRON POWDER EXPORTS• ALUMINUM, COPPER, AND NICKEL IMPORTS• ALUMINUM, COPPER, AND NICKEL EXPORTS• SPECIAL FOCUS:

• JAPANESE IMPORTS• EUROPEAN IMPORTS

Monthly Agenda – Industry Trends

US ECONOMIC DATALeading Indicators

Economic Trends – Dow Jones Index


Source: Yahoo Finance.

• Last year at this time in December the market was at 17,265 which was a .09% decrease from 2014, 17,280. This year it is at 19,258, a 11.51% increase over same time in 2015.

• The Dow still hasn’t dipped below 15,000 since April 2013!

• Market reacting positively to stronger fundamentals and perhaps to new administration.

8/10

/200

7

12/1

0/20

07

4/10

/200

8

8/10

/200

8

12/1

0/20

08

4/10

/200

9

8/10

/200

9

12/1

0/20

09

4/10

/201

0

8/10

/201

0

12/1

0/20

10

4/10

/201

1

8/10

/201

1

12/1

0/20

11

4/10

/201

2

8/10

/201

2

12/1

0/20

12

4/10

/201

3

8/10

/201

3

12/1

0/20

13

4/10

/201

4

8/10

/201

4

12/1

0/20

14

4/10

/201

5

8/10

/201

5

12/1

0/20

15

4/10

/201

6

8/10

/201

6

12/1

0/20

16

6,000.00

7,000.00

8,000.00

9,000.00

10,000.00

11,000.00

12,000.00

13,000.00

14,000.00

15,000.00

16,000.00

17,000.00

18,000.00

19,000.00

20,000.00DJI Weekly Average Adjusted Close


Total MFG Shipments, Total MFG Inventories, New Orders for Durable Goods ($ Mil)

• New Orders. New orders for manufactured durable goods in October, up four consecutive months, increased $10.6 billion or 4.6 percent to $238.8 billion, down from the previously published 4.8 percent increase. This followed a 0.3 percent September increase. Transportation equipment, also up four consecutive months, led the increase, $9.4 billion or 12.0 percent to $88.1 billion.

• Shipments. Shipments of manufactured durable goods in October, down two of the last three months, decreased $0.3 billion or 0.1 percent to $234.1 billion, down from the previously published 0.1 percent increase. This followed a 0.8 percent September increase. Transportation equipment, down three of the last four months, drove the decrease, $1.2 billion or 1.5 percent to $80.7 billion. Petroleum and coal products, also up seven of the last eight months, drove the increase, $2.3 billion or 6.2 percent to $39.3 billion.

Inventories. Inventories of manufactured durable goods in October, up four consecutive months, increased less than $0.1 billion or virtually unchanged to $383.7 billion, virtually unchanged from the previously published increase. This followed a virtually unchanged September increase. Transportation equipment, up three of the last four months, drove the increase, $0.2 billion or 0.2 percent to $123.8 billion. By stage of fabrication, October materials and supplies were virtually unchanged in durable goods and increased 0.6 percent in nondurable goods. Work in process decreased 0.2 percent in durable goods and decreased 0.7 percent in nondurable goods. Finished goods increased 0.3 percent in durable goods and increased 0.2 percent in nondurable goods.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau.

Jan-01Jul-0

1Jan-02

Jul-02Jan-03

Jul-03Jan-04

Jul-04Jan-05

Jul-05Jan-06

Jul-06Jan-07

Jul-07Jan-08

Jul-08Jan-09

Jul-09Jan-10

Jul-10Jan-11

Jul-11Jan-12

Jul-12Jan-13

Jul-13Jan-14

Jul-14Jan-15

Jul-15Jan-16

Jul-16Jan-17

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

Total MFG Shipments and Total MFG Inventories; New Orders and Shipments of Durable Goods ($ Mil)

Total MFG Shipments ($Mil) SA Total MFG Inventories ($Mil) SANew Orders Durable Goods ($Mil) SA Shipments of Durable Goods ($Mil) SA


Iron Powder Shipments vs. New Orders & Shipments of Durable Goods

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, MPIF.

Jan-01

May-01

Sep-01Jan-02

May-02

Sep-02Jan-03

May-03

Sep-03Jan-04

May-04

Sep-04Jan-05

May-05

Sep-05Jan-06

May-06

Sep-06Jan-07

May-07

Sep-07Jan-08

May-08

Sep-08Jan-09

May-09

Sep-09Jan-10

May-10

Sep-10Jan-11

May-11

Sep-11Jan-12

May-12

Sep-12Jan-13

May-13

Sep-13Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16Jan-17

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

Monthly Structural Parts Powder Shipments vs. New Orders & Shipments of Durable Goods

New Orders Durable Goods ($Mil) SA Shipments of Durable Goods ($Mil) SA Structural Parts Powder shipments


Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) Current Release“The December PMI® registered 54.7 percent, an increase of 1.5 percentage points from the November reading of 53.2 percent. The New Orders Index registered 60.2 percent, an increase of 7.2 percentage points from the November reading of 53 percent. The Production Index registered 60.3 percent, 4.3 percentage points higher than the November reading of 56 percent. The Employment Index registered 53.1 percent, an increase of 0.8 percentage point from the November reading of 52.3 percent. Inventories of raw materials registered 47 percent, a decrease of 2 percentage points from the November reading of 49 percent. The Prices Index registered 65.5 percent in December, an increase of 11 percentage points from the November reading of 54.5 percent, indicating higher raw materials prices for the 10th consecutive month. The PMI®, New Orders, Production and Employment Indexes all registered new highs for the year 2016, and the forward-looking comments from the panel are largely positive.”

Manufacturing expanded in December as the PMI® registered 54.7 percent, an increase of 1.5 percentage points from the November reading of 53.2 percent, indicating growth in manufacturing for the fourth consecutive month and a new high reading for the year.A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.

A PMI® above 43.2 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the December PMI® indicates growth for the 91st consecutive month in the overall economy, and indicates growth in the manufacturing sector for the fourth consecutive month. Holcomb stated, "The past relationship between the PMI® and the overall economy indicates that the average PMI® for January through December (51.5 percent) corresponds to a 2.6 percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis. In addition, if the PMI® for December (54.7 percent) is annualized, it corresponds to a 3.6 percent increase in real GDP annually."Source: Bradley J. Holcomb, CPSM, CPSD, chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee Institute for Supply Management


Historical PMI 2001 – 2016 With Recessions

This is a 16 year perspective of PMI with the last two recessions indicated by a RED circle around the approximate time period. Source: Institute for Supply Management

Source: ISM.

2001

-01-

01

2001

-07-

01

2002

-01-

01

2002

-07-

01

2003

-01-

01

2003

-07-

01

2004

-01-

01

2004

-07-

01

2005

-01-

01

2005

-07-

01

2006

-01-

01

2006

-07-

01

2007

-01-

01

2007

-07-

01

2008

-01-

01

2008

-07-

01

2009

-01-

01

2009

-07-

01

2010

-01-

01

2010

-07-

01

2011

-01-

01

2011

-07-

01

2012

-01-

01

2012

-07-

01

2013

-01-

01

2013

-07-

01

2014

-01-

01

2014

-07-

01

2015

-01-

01

2015

-07-

01

2016

-01-

01

2016

-07-

01

2017

-01-

01

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

55.0

60.0

65.0

70.0

Purchasing Manager's Index by Month Jan. 2001 - Dec. 2016


US MFG PMI, European MFG PMI, China MFG PMI

Source: ISM, Markit, Govt. of China.

Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-1730.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

55.0

60.0

65.0

U S MFG PMI, EU ROZONE MFG PMI, CHIN A MF G PMI

USA MFG PMI Eurozone MFG PMI China MFG PMI


Consumer Confidence Index 2011 - 2016• The Conference Board conducts a monthly survey of

5000 households to ascertain the level of consumer confidence. The report can occasionally be helpful in predicting sudden shifts in consumption patterns, though most small changes in the index are just noise. Only index changes of at least five points should be considered significant. The index consists of two sub indexes - consumers' appraisal of current conditions and their expectations for the future. Expectations make up 60% of the total index, with current conditions accounting for the other 40%. The expectations index is typically seen as having better leading indicator qualities than the current conditions index.

• “Consumer Confidence improved further in December, due solely to increasing Expectations which hit a 13-year high (Dec. 2003, 107.4),” said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “The post-election surge in optimism for the economy, jobs and income prospects, as well as for stock prices which reached a 13-year high, was most pronounced among older consumers. Consumers’ assessment of current conditions, which declined, still suggests that economic growth continued through the final months of 2016. Looking ahead to 2017, consumers’ continued optimism will depend on whether or not their expectations are realized.”Source: Conference Board

Jan-11Apr-1

1Jul-1

1Oct-

11Jan-12

Apr-12

Jul-12

Oct-12

Jan-13Apr-1

3Jul-1

3Oct-

13Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-14

Oct-14

Jan-15Apr-1

5Jul-1

5Oct-

15Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

Jan-1730

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Consumer Confidence Index 2011 - 2016


Historical Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) vs. Recessions

Source: Conference Board

Jan-80

Sep-80

May-81Jan-82

Sep-82

May-83Jan-84

Sep-84

May-85Jan-86

Sep-86

May-87Jan-88

Sep-88

May-89Jan-90

Sep-90

May-91Jan-92

Sep-92

May-93Jan-94

Sep-94

May-95Jan-96

Sep-96

May-97Jan-98

Sep-98

May-99Jan-00

Sep-00

May-01Jan-02

Sep-02

May-03Jan-04

Sep-04

May-05Jan-06

Sep-06

May-07Jan-08

Sep-08

May-09Jan-10

Sep-10

May-11Jan-12

Sep-12

May-13Jan-14

Sep-14

May-15Jan-16

Sep-16

May-17

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Consumer Confidence Index vs. US Recessions

CCI Linear (CCI)


Housing Starts

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Privately-owned housing starts in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,090,000. This is 18.7 percent (±6.7%) below the revised October estimate of 1,340,000 and is 6.9 percent (±7.3%)* below the November 2015 rate of 1,171,000.

Single-family housing starts in November were at a rate of 828,000; this is 4.1 percent (±7.5%)* below the revised October figure of 863,000.

The November rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 259,000.

Jan 2000

Sep 2000

May 2001

Jan 2002

Sep 2002

May 2003

Jan 2004

Sep 2004

May 2005

Jan 2006

Sep 2006

May 2007

Jan 2008

Sep 2008

May 2009

Jan 2010

Sep 2010

May 2011

Jan 2012

Sep 2012

May 2013

Jan 2014

Sep 2014

May 2015

Jan 2016

Sep 20160

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Housing Starts 01/2000 - 11/2016 Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate

5 Units or more 1 Unit

In T

hous

ands

of u

nits

2 to 4 5 units Total 1 unit units or more

Percent Change:November 2016 from October 2016 -18.7% -4.1% (S) -43.9%November 2016 from October 2015 -6.9% 5.3% (S) -31.7%

New Privately-Owned Housing Units Started

Period

United StatesIn structures with --

US ECONOMIC DATALagging Indicators

CONFIDENTIAL WITH DISTRIBUTION TO MPIF MEMBERS ONLY

Gross Domestic Product (GDP), SAAR

16

• Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 3.2 percent in the third quarter of 2016 (table 1), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 1.4 percent.

• The increase in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, private inventory investment, and federal government spending, that were partly offset by negative contributions from residential fixed investment and state and local government spending.

• Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates

I II III IV I II III IV I II III2014 2015 2016

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

Percent Change From Preceding Period In Real Gross Domestic Product By Qtr For

2014 - 2016


Historical Gross Domestic Product (GDP), SAAR

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates

I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

Percent Change From Preceding Period In Real Gross Domestic Product By Qtr For 2001 - 2016


US Economic Forecast

Source: The Conference Board, October 12, 2016Percentage change, seasonally adjusted annual rates (except where noted)

2015 2016 2017III Q* IV Q I Q II Q III Q Annual Annual Annual

Real GDP 2.9 1.7 2.1 1.8 1.8 2.6 1.5 2Real Consumer Spending 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.1 2 3.2 2.6 2.3Residential Investment −6.2 5.8 5 5 4.2 11.7 4.3 2.7Real Capital Spending 1.1 1.4 1.8 2.2 2.5 2.1 −0.5 1.8Exports

0.1 0.5 2.5

2016 2017

10 −2.0 2.7 2.4 2.3

Updated: November 9, 2016, Posted November 28, 2016Percentage change, seasonally adjusted annual rates (except where noted)The Conference Board


Global Economic Outlook -Growth Rates for Gross Domestic Product, 2015-2025

Notes: Projections are based on trend growth estimates, which - for the period 2017-2021 - are adjusted for remaining output gaps.

* Europe includes all 28 members of the European Union, as well as Iceland, Switzerland and Norway.

** Other mature economies are Australia, Canada, Israel, Hong Kong, South Korea, New Zealand, Singapore, and Taiwan.*** Russia, Central Asia, and Southeast Europe include projections for Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Belarus and Turkey.

Sources: The Conference Board Global Economic Outlook 2017 and The Conference Board Total Economy Database™, November 2016 update.

Actual Forecast Forecast Projected Trend

2015 2016 2017 2017-20212022-2026

United States 2.8 1.6 2 2.2 2Europe* 2 1.6 1.4 1.7 1.3of which: Euro Area 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.7 1.2Japan 1 0.9 0.6 1.2 0.8Other mature** 2.9 3 3 3.4 2.8Mature Economies 2.3 1.7 1.8 2.1 1.8

China 4.2 3.9 3.8 3.3 2.9India 7.3 6.8 6.5 5.8 5.5Other developing Asia 5.1 5.1 5 5 4.5Latin America -0.7 -1.3 1.2 2.6 2.7of which: Brazil -3.9 -3.8 0 1.9 2.3of which: Mexico 2.5 2.4 2.6 4 3.8Middle East & North Africa 3.7 3.7 2.7 3.3 3.3Sub-Saharan Africa 3.3 1.7 2.3 4.8 5.1Russia, Central Asia and Southeast Europe*** -1.1 0 2 1.6 1Emerging Marketsand Developing Economies

World Total 2.8 2.5 2.8 3.0 2.7

GDP Growth Rates (Percent Change)

3.3 3.2 3.6 3.7 3.5

https://www.conference-board.org/data/economydatabase/index.cfm?id=25667

https://www.conference-board.org/data/economydatabase/index.cfm?id=25667


Annual Inflation Rate By Month

The Inflation rate is calculated from the Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) which is compiled by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and is based upon a 1982-84 Base of 100.

Current inflation of 1.69%

Source: Inflationdata.com and Bureau of Labor Statistics

Jan-80

Jul-8

1Jan

-83Ju

l-84

Jan-86

Jul-8

7Jan

-89Ju

l-90

Jan-92

Jul-9

3Jan

-95Ju

l-96

Jan-98

Jul-9

9Jan

-01Ju

l-02

Jan-04

Jul-0

5Jan

-07Ju

l-08

Jan-10

Jul-1

1Jan

-13Ju

l-14

Jan-16

Jul-1

7-4.00%

-2.00%

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

14.00%

16.00%

Annual Inflation Rate by Month


US Monthly Unemployment Rate

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

• Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 178,000 in November. Thus far in 2016, employment growth has averaged 180,000 per month, compared with an average monthly increase of 229,000 in 2015. In November, employment gains occurred in professional and business services and in health care.Employment in professional and business services rose by 63,000 in November and has risen by 571,000 over the year. Over the month, accounting and bookkeeping services added 18,000 jobs. Employment continued to trend up in administrative and support services (+36,000), computer systems design and related services (+5,000), and management and technical consulting services (+4,000). Health care employment rose by 28,000 in November. Within the industry, employment growth occurred in ambulatory health care services (+22,000). Over the past 12 months, health care has added 407,000 jobs. Employment in construction continued on its recent upward trend in November (+19,000), with a gain in residential specialty trade contractors (+15,000). Over the past 3 months, construction has added 59,000 jobs, largely in residential construction. Employment in other major industries, including mining, manufacturing, wholesale trade, retail trade, transportation and warehousing, information, financial activities, leisure and hospitality, and government, changed little over the month.

Jan-

08Ap

r-08

Jul-0

8O

ct-0

8Ja

n-09

Apr-

09Ju

l-09

Oct

-09

Jan-

10Ap

r-10

Jul-1

0O

ct-1

0Ja

n-11

Apr-

11Ju

l-11

Oct

-11

Jan-

12Ap

r-12

Jul-1

2O

ct-1

2Ja

n-13

Apr-

13Ju

l-13

Oct

-13

Jan-

14Ap

r-14

Jul-1

4O

ct-1

4Ja

n-15

Apr-

15Ju

l-15

Oct

-15

Jan-

16Ap

r-16

Jul-1

6O

ct-1

6Ja

n-17

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

U.S. Unemployment Rate

Unemployment Rate SAAR

% U

nem

ploy

ed


US Unemployment Rate vs. Under-Employed Categories

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Jan-

08

Apr-

08

Jul-0

8

Oct

-08

Jan-

09

Apr-

09

Jul-0

9

Oct

-09

Jan-

10

Apr-

10

Jul-1

0

Oct

-10

Jan-

11

Apr-

11

Jul-1

1

Oct

-11

Jan-

12

Apr-

12

Jul-1

2

Oct

-12

Jan-

13

Apr-

13

Jul-1

3

Oct

-13

Jan-

14

Apr-

14

Jul-1

4

Oct

-14

Jan-

15

Apr-

15

Jul-1

5

Oct

-15

Jan-

16

Apr-

16

Jul-1

6

Oct

-16

Jan-

17

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

U.S. Unemployment Rate

% Total Under Employed % Slack/Business Conditions % Part Time Only Unemployment Rate SAAR

% U

nem

ploy

ed


Unemployment By The Numbers

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.Not in the labor force includes underage children, retired persons, students, institutionalized, those taking care of children or other family members, and others who are neither working nor seeking work.

Total Civilian Noninstitutional Population 16 years and older 254,540,000Participation Rate 62.66%Civilian Labor Force 159,486,000 Civilian Labor Force Employed 152,085,000

In Labor Force but Unemployed 7,400,000 4.64%Not in Labor Force, Unemployed and wants to work 5,876,000 Total Unemployed 13,276,000 Civilian Labor Force including those who want to work 165,362,000 Real Unemployment 8.03%

In Labor force, Under-Employed due to Slow conditions or temporary furloughs. 3,505,000 In Labor force, Under-Employed and can only find part time job 2,118,000 Total Underemployed 5,623,000 3.53%

In Labor force, Part time workers who choose to work part time 21,018,000 13.18%


• NABE Panel Expects Economic Growth and Inflation to Creep Higher, and the Fed to Increase Interest Rates, in 2017• “SUMMARY: “Results from NABE’s December 2016 Outlook Survey show that expectations for broad economic growth through 2017 have changed

little in the last three months,” according to NABE President Stuart Mackintosh, CBE, executive director, Group of Thirty. “Real GDP is expected to increase 1.6% in 2016, before accelerating to 2.2% in 2017. Few economists participating in the survey believe a business cycle peak is imminent. However, the slow pace of growth in recent years may be the ‘new normal,’ as more than 80% of survey panelists estimate that the potential rate of economic growth will be 2.5% or lower over the next five years. Panelists identified boosting infrastructure investment and reforming tax and regulatory policies as the most important things the incoming administration and Congress can do to lift economic growth during the next presidential term.”

• “Panelists expect oil prices to continue to rebound, long-term interest rates to trend higher, and compensation gains to increase in 2017,” said Timothy Gill, CBE, chief economist, American Iron and Steel Institute. “While inflation shows little sign of rapid acceleration, stronger growth is expected across several key price measures next year. With labor market conditions forecasted to remain firm, the panel’s consensus is that the Federal Reserve will raise the federal funds rate this month and implement two additional increases next year, bringing the midpoint of the target range to 1.125% by the end of 2017.”

• Expectations for the pace of economic growth are largely unchanged from those in the September 2016 Outlook Survey. The panel's median forecast of 2.2% growth in real GDP from the fourth quarter of 2016 to the fourth quarter of 2017 is unchanged from the September survey. The annualized growth rate forecasted for 2017 inched downward to 2.2% in the current survey from 2.3% in September. Both projections illustrate the panel’s expectation of accelerating growth in 2017 compared with the median estimate of 1.8% year-to-year growth in 2016 Q4, and a 1.6% annual growth rate for 2016 as a whole.

• Relatively few panelists (8%) expect the next U.S. business cycle peak will occur before 2018. One-third of panelists forecasts a peak during 2018 with another one-third expecting a peak in 2019. Twenty-three percent expect the current expansion to continue at least until 2020.

• Nearly half the panel (46%) rates the probability of recession during the next 12 months between 16% and 25%. One-quarter puts the risk at between 6% and 15%. The remainder of the panel is split between a 26% or higher risk (19% of panelists) and 5% or lower risk (10% of panelists). The recession-risk distribution shifts higher when the time frame is extended to the next 24 months. Over half the panelists (52%) cite the risk at between 11% and 30% probability, while two-fifths rate the risk at between 31% and 50%. Only about 4% believe the risk is 10% or less, while an equal share believes the risk is greater than 50%.

NABE Outlook Survey December 2016


• “The results of the most recent NABE Business Conditions Survey appear consistent with an economy in its eighth year of recovery,” says NABE President Stuart Mackintosh, CBE, executive director, Group of Thirty. “Sales growth is easing, and profit margins are under pressure from rising costs, including wages. At the same time, capital spending increases are expected by more than half of respondents, and the outlook for hiring has improved modestly. Panelists also modestly increased their expectations for economic growth, with over 40% now expecting GDP growth above 2% in the coming quarters.”

• “Over 40% of panelists report that their firms are increasing investment to support new product lines or for capacity expansion,” noted Survey Chair Emily Kolinski Morris, CBE, chief economist, Ford Motor Company. “Election uncertainty and potential increases in the minimum wage do not appear to be impacting business decisions in the aggregate, although these issues are a greater concern for panelists in some subgroups.”

• Survey results reveal that sales growth at respondents’ firms was less widespread than in the second quarter. While similar shares of respondents in October (43%) as in July (42%) report rising sales, a marginally larger share reports falling sales (21% in the current survey versus 17% in July). The net rising index (NRI)—the percentage of respondents reporting rising sales at their firms minus the percentage reporting falling sales—declined to 22 from 25 in July. The weakness was led by the goods-producing sector, which has an NRI of -24, while respondents from the finance, insurance, real estate (FIRE) sector are the most upbeat, with that sector registering an NRI of 44.

• More favorably, 54% of survey panelists expect sales to increase during the fourth quarter of 2016—the largest share expressing this view since the second quarter of 2015.

• A slightly larger share of NABE panelists expects profits to decline rather than rise at their firms in the fourth quarter of 2016—21% vs. 20%—resulting in a NRI of -1. The overall NRI for expected profits would be positive if not for the transportation, utilities, information, communications (TUIC) sector, which has an NRI of -50.

• Panelists’ expectations for prices charged by their firms over the coming quarter stabilized after slowing sharply in the July survey. The NRI moved up from 9 in July to 12 in October. Only 18% of respondents expect their firms to raise prices during the next three months, up slightly from the 15% who held this view last quarter, but noticeably lower than results from earlier this year.

• The share of respondents reporting rising materials costs continued to grow in October, reaching 33%—the highest reading in the past year. Meanwhile, the percentage of respondents reporting a decline in costs moved up slightly to 14% from a two-year low of 12% in July. Expectations for cost increases in the coming three months also moved higher, with 35% of respondents anticipating rising costs, compared to 24% who held that view in the July survey.

• The share of respondents reporting that wages and salaries had increased at their firms in the past three months rose 2 percentage points from the July survey result. All sectors have positive NRIs for wages and salaries, but the FIRE sector has the highest index by a wide margin of nearly 20 points over the second highest, the goods-producing sector. Expectations for wage increases over the next three months are modestly weaker than in recent surveys, but nearly half of respondents in each sector still expects their firms to raise wages and salaries.

NABE October Business Conditions Survey


• The NRI for employment is unchanged from the July survey at 19, in line with readings for most of the previous four quarters. However, the result reflects an increase in responses for both rising and falling employment, while fewer respondents saw employment at their firms unchanged. The share of panelists who anticipate their firms will add workers in the next quarter rose to 33% from 29% in the July survey, helping to drive the NRI up to 17, more closely in line with readings over the previous four surveys.

• A smaller share of respondents reports that their firms increased capital spending in the third quarter of 2016, reflecting a rise in the number of companies actively cutting capital budgets. Spending was weakest in the goods-producing and services sectors. On balance, respondents in all sectors expect some pick up in spending in the coming three months, driving the overall NRI for expected spending up to 28 from 24 in the July survey.

• Thirty-seven percent of survey respondents report that their firms experienced shortages of skilled labor during the last three months of 2016, up from 31% in the previous survey. As was the case in the previous four surveys, there were few reports of shortages of other inputs.

• The NABE panel’s expectations for growth in inflation-adjusted gross domestic product (real GDP) over the next four quarters are modestly more optimistic than those reported in the July survey. Forty-four percent expect real GDP to grow more than 2% from the third quarter of 2016 to the third quarter of 2017. That is an increase from the 36% who held this view in the July survey for GDP growth from the second quarter of 2016 to second quarter 2017. Growth between 1.1% and 2% remains the most frequent response, with 48% of respondents citing this range.

• Forty-three percent of respondents report that their firms had difficulty filling open positions during the third quarter of 2016. Respondents from goods-producing firms continue to report significantly greater difficulty in hiring, and those from all sectors except services report more difficulty in hiring than in the July survey.

• Thirty-five percent (35%) of respondents report no significant new capital spending plans. Of the remaining 65%, a plurality indicates that the primary factor driving increased spending was expanding into new markets or product lines, representing 23% of survey responses. Expanding capacity for current products was a close second at 19%.

• Goods-producing firms account for larger shares citing expanding capacity for current products.

• Almost three-fourths of survey respondents (74%) indicate that an increase in the minimum wage would have little or no impact on their firms . Twenty-two percent report that a higher wage would have a negative impact on their firms, either through compressedprofit margins (13%) or reduced hiring (8%).

NABE October Business Conditions Survey

INDUSTRY TRENDSAutomotive


US Light Vehicle Sales

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, JP Power, Wards Auto

Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-160.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

800.0

1000.0

1200.0

1400.0

1600.0

1800.0

2000.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

US Light Vehicle Sales vs. Total Vehicles SAAR

Light Total --not seasonally adjusted (Thousands) Total -- seasonally adjusted at annual rates (Millions)

Thou

sand

s of

uni

ts

Annu

al R

ate

in M

illio

ns


US Light Vehicle Sales Wards Auto

• U.S. light-vehicle sales surged ahead in October, rising to the highest seasonally adjusted annual rate so far this year.

• The downside to October’s results is the SAAR declined year-over-year for the third straight month, further indication the unprecedented growth recorded since mid-2009 is over.

• October’s 17.9 million-unit SAAR topped the 17.8 million attained in both January and July, although it was below last October’s 18.1 million. The year-to-date SAAR through October stood at 17.3 million units, same as 10-month 2015’s total.

• Due to two fewer selling days this year (26 vs. last year’s 28), October’s actual volume of 1.364 million units was 5.7% below like-2015, even though the daily selling rate increased 1.5% to 52,473 from like-2015’s 51,697.

• U.S. light-vehicle inventory ended October at an all-time high for the month, October’s inventory is 3.841 million units.

U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Summary, November 2016


North America Light Vehicle Production• Fourth-quarter production plans have changed at a number of automakers in the

industry’s latest round of schedule reviews.• The result is that 13,000 more vehicles have been added to the slate.• However, in a late reassessment, Ford added some 15,100 units to the quarterly

tally in its first official take on Q4 output.• Most significant is the fact the industry’s October production count closed at an

estimated 40,800 units below what had been scheduled, bringing the total for the month to 1,633,700 units.

• However, a large part of that “loss,” 33,900 units, has been rescheduled to November, moving the month’s tally to 1,516,100 vehicles.

• Another 20,000 units has been added to December, now pegged for 1,325,600 completions.

• Thus, the fourth-quarter plan stands at 4,475,600 vehicles compared with 4,462,500 a month earlier.

• But, in addition to shifting output from October, automakers have sliced 29,700 cars from October-December plans, while boosting truck production by 42,800 units in response to evolving consumer preferences.

• Light-duty units account for all of the truck-output increase, more than offsetting the 6,000 assemblies cut by the dedicated medium- and heavy-duty producers.

• Fiat Chrysler, Ford and Toyota account for the majority of the Q4 output cuts, a combined 124,600 vehicles, much of which has been offset by increases totaling 127,000 units at General Motors, Honda, Kia, Nissan and Subaru.

• The record-year-end tally now is expected to reach 18,209,500 vehicles, some 36,400 units short of the 18,245,900 completions forecast a month ago. That is due virtually entirely to the 42,800-unit shortfall in the final September count that helped reduce the final third-quarter tally to 4,492,400 vehicles.

Source: Wardsauto.com

http://wardsauto.com/taxonomy/term/53589?intlink=incontent





Global Light Vehicle Sales

Source: © LMC Automotive Ltd, 2016. All rights reserved in all countries. Decisions based on this information are at the user’s own risk and LMC Automotive cannot accept any liability for its accuracy. If the © LMC Automotive Ltd, 2016. All rights reserved in all countries. Decisions based on this information are at the user’s own risk and LMC Automotive cannot accept any liability for its accuracy. If the information in this document is reproduced in any form then full attribution must be given to LMC Automotive. information in this document is reproduced in any form then full attribution must be given to LMC Automotive.

Global Light Vehicle Sales UpdateNovember 2016

Nov Nov Percent Year to date Year to date Percent Nov Year to date Year Percent2016 2015 change 2016 2015 change 2016 2016 2015 change

WORLD 8,301,664 7,639,854 8.7% 84,534,901 80,695,313 4.8% 98,458,601 92,813,837 89,156,223 4.1%USA 1,377,267 1,317,016 4.6% 15,847,906 15,805,536 0.3% 17,823,582 17,443,919 17,446,375 0.0%CANADA 160,573 145,512 10.4% 1,822,471 1,768,572 3.0% 1,940,610 1,938,652 1,897,444 2.2%WESTERN EUROPE 1,241,961 1,178,225 5.4% 14,534,303 13,611,602 6.8% 15,891,876 15,709,835 14,825,576 6.0%EASTERN EUROPE 388,369 334,259 16.2% 3,480,523 3,490,902 -0.3% 4,609,332 4,060,608 3,918,559 3.6%JAPAN 413,426 385,255 7.3% 4,513,536 4,635,911 -2.6% 5,280,485 4,888,304 5,001,057 -2.3%KOREA 161,937 162,620 -0.4% 1,603,570 1,599,879 0.2% 1,903,448 1,771,811 1,797,565 -1.4%CHINA 2,915,216 2,522,224 15.6% 24,954,864 22,112,838 12.9% 31,092,155 27,739,882 24,893,417 11.4%BRAZIL / ARGENTINA 229,637 237,802 -3.4% 2,423,701 2,835,601 -14.5% 2,874,578 2,672,675 3,085,139 -13.4%OTHER 1,413,278 1,356,941 4.2% 15,354,027 14,834,472 3.5% 17,042,535 16,588,150 16,291,091 1.8%Notes: The percentage change in the final column compares the average selling rate in the year-to-date with the last full year.

Late reporting countries and estimates are included in "Other".Eastern Europe includes Turkey.China includes estimate of light vehicle imports.

Friday, December 9, 2016

Sales (units) Selling rate (Units/year)


LMC Automotive Global Outlook• Initial estimates for the Global Light Vehicle market in November show it hitting a blistering 98.5 mn units/year annualized selling rate, signifying its strongest ever monthly market result.

North America

• November US Light Vehicle sales totalled 1.38 mn units, representing a selling rate of 17.8 mn units/year and a near-5% increase in year-on-year terms. In addition to having two more selling days than last year, November 2016 sales were stimulated by increased incentive spending, which was up 17% YoY. Sales in the combined Pickup and SUV segments experienced incremental year-on-year gains outweighing losses in the combined Car segments.

• Canadian Light Vehicle sales for November totalled 161,000 units representing a 10.4% increase from last year’s record November, with sales on track for another annual record in 2016.

Europe

• Year-on-year growth in Light Vehicle sales resumed in November in Western Europe after a flat October result. The selling rate edged up towards 15.9 mn units/year, bringing the expectation for 2016 in total to be a little under 15.8 mn units. Note, this is below the region’s highest ever level by around 1 mn units, or 6%, so full recovery from the Great Recession, and the subsequent Eurozone crisis, is now not far off. Brexit effects have yet to be felt, with UK demand holding up well, but some softening in that market appears likely next year and beyond.

China

• With only a few weeks left before the planned expiration of the temporary tax cut, Chinese consumers continued to rush to dealerships in November. While there is strong speculation that the government will extend the tax cut, there has been no official announcement so far, so buyers have acted as if the incentive will definitely end. Preliminary data indicates that the November selling rate reached 31 mn units/year, a touch above October’s record high. On a year-on-year basis, sales increased by around 16% in November.

Other Asia

• Sales in Japan made a surprise upswing, with the November selling rate reaching 5.3 mn units/year, a near two-year high. Recently launched new models boosted sales.

• Defying the slowing economy and an ongoing political crisis, the selling rate in South Korea surged to a robust 1.9 mn units/year in November, up 11% from an already strong October. Record-low interest rates and heavy discounting by OEMs and dealerships are helping to boost sales after a temporary tax cut expired in June.

South America

• In Brazil, the selling rate rebounded to just above 2 mn units/year in November, up nearly 16% from a weak October, as the supply issue at VW Brazil has started to dissipate. Yet, ongoing fiscal austerity measures and the still-deteriorating job market continue to lead to depressed spending on new vehicles.

• In the notoriously volatile Argentine market, the selling rate jumped to a 3.5-year high of 815,000 units/year in November. While such a robust rate is unlikely to be sustainable, easing credit conditions and an improving job market are expected to support sales over the next year.


Estimated Iron Powder Usage of Domestic Autos and Light Trucks Sold vs. Housing Starts

Source: Wards Auto, Bureau of Economic Analysis, US Census Bureau and Dept of Housing and Urban Development

Jan-98Jun-98

Nov-98Apr-9

9

Sep-99

Feb-00Jul-0

0

Dec-00

May-01Oct-

01

Mar-02

Aug-02Jan-03

Jun-03

Nov-03Apr-0

4

Sep-04

Feb-05Jul-0

5

Dec-05

May-06Oct-

06

Mar-07

Aug-07Jan-08

Jun-08

Nov-08Apr-0

9

Sep-09

Feb-10Jul-1

0

Dec-10

May-11Oct-

11

Mar-12

Aug-12Jan-13

Jun-13

Nov-13Apr-1

4

Sep-14

Feb-15Jul-1

5

Dec-15

May-16Oct-

16

Mar-17

0

4000

8000

12000

16000

20000

24000

28000

32000

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

2,400

ESTIMATED IRON POWDER USED IN DOMESTIC VEHICLES SOLD VS. SINGLE FAMILY HOUSING STARTS

total short tons used in light duty domestic vehicles single family units in Thousands Total Housing Starts in Thous

Shor

t ton

s

hous

ing

star

ts i

n th

ousa

nds


• 2014/2015 DEC/NOV, Monthly average was 468.7k vs. 2015/2016 DEC/NOV, monthly average of 430.7k or a 8.1% decrease

• Average Monthly Annual rate for 14/15 was 5.624M vs. 5.168M for 15/16 or a 8.1% decrease

Monthly Trend for Domestic Auto Sales

Bureau of Economic Analysis

Aug-

15

Sep-

15

Oct

-15

Nov

-15

Dec-

15

Jan-

16

Feb-

16

Mar

-16

Apr-

16

May

-16

Jun-

16

Jul-1

6

Aug-

16

Sep-

16

Oct

-16

Nov

-16 360.0

380.0

400.0

420.0

440.0

460.0

480.0

500.0

4.400

4.600

4.800

5.000

5.200

5.400

5.600

5.800

6.000

Retail Sales of Domestic Autos Seasonally Adjusted

Seasonally adjusted (Thousands) Seasonally adjusted at annual rates (Millions)

Thou

sand

s of

uni

ts

Annu

al R

ate

in M

illio

ns


• 2014/2015 DEC/NOV, monthly avg 672k vs. 2015/2016 DEC/NOV, monthly avg. of 699.5k or a 4.01% increase

• Average Monthly Annual rate for 14/15 was 8.06M vs. 8.394M for 15/16 or a 4.14% increase

Monthly Trend for Domestic Light Truck Sales


Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16600.0

620.0

640.0

660.0

680.0

700.0

720.0

740.0

760.0

7.200

7.400

7.600

7.800

8.000

8.200

8.400

8.600

8.800

9.000

9.200

Retail Sales of Domestic Light Trucks Seasonally Adjusted

Domestic Light Trucks Seasonally adjusted (Thousands)Domestic Light Trucks Seasonally adjusted at annual rates (Millions)

Thou

sand

s of

Uni

tsAn

nual

Rat

e in

Mill

ions


Seasonally Adjusted Unit Inventories of Domestic Autos


Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-161020.0

1040.0

1060.0

1080.0

1100.0

1120.0

1140.0

1160.0

1180.0

1200.0

1220.0

2.300

2.400

2.500

2.600

2.700

2.800

2.900

3.000

Unit Inventories of Domestic Autos Seasonally Adjusted

Seasonally Adjusted Level Inventory/Sales Ratio

Thou

sand

s of

Uni

tsIn

vent

ory/

Sale

s Ra

tio


Retail Sales All Autos vs. All Light Trucks


Jan-76Jan-77

Jan-78Jan-79

Jan-80Jan-81

Jan-82Jan-83

Jan-84Jan-85

Jan-86Jan-87

Jan-88Jan-89

Jan-90Jan-91

Jan-92Jan-93

Jan-94Jan-95

Jan-96Jan-97

Jan-98Jan-99

Jan-00Jan-01

Jan-02Jan-03

Jan-04Jan-05

Jan-06Jan-07

Jan-08Jan-09

Jan-10Jan-11

Jan-12Jan-13

Jan-14Jan-15

Jan-16Jan-17

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

Retail Sales of Autos vs. Light Duty Trucks, Not Seasonally Adjusted, As a Percentage of Total Autos and All Trucks

Autos -- not seasonally adjusted % of total Light Trucks -- not seasonally adjusted % of total

Perc

ent %


Light Duty Capacity, Capacity Utilization & Industrial Production, 2006 - 2016

Source: BOG Fed Reserve

1972-01

1973-01

1974-01

1975-01

1976-01

1977-01

1978-01

1979-01

1980-01

1981-01

1982-01

1983-01

1984-01

1985-01

1986-01

1987-01

1988-01

1989-01

1990-01

1991-01

1992-01

1993-01

1994-01

1995-01

1996-01

1997-01

1998-01

1999-01

2000-01

2001-01

2002-01

2003-01

2004-01

2005-01

2006-01

2007-01

2008-01

2009-01

2010-01

2011-01

2012-01

2013-01

2014-01

2015-01

2016-01

2017-010

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Producti on, Capaci ty, and Capaci ty Uti l i zati on for Automobi l e and Li ght Duty Ve hi cl e s and Total Inde x Capaci ty U ti l i zati on; s .a.

Automobile and light duty motor vehicle (NAICS = 33611); s.a. CAP Motor vehicle (NAICS = 3361); s.a. IP Automobile and light duty motor vehicle (NAICS = 33611); s.a. CAPUTLTotal index; s.a. CAPUTL

Inde

x Va

lue

% U

tiliz

ation


US Vehicle Assemblies Production vs. Iron Powder Shipments


1998-01 1998-12 1999-11 2000-10 2001-09 2002-08 2003-07 2004-06 2005-05 2006-04 2007-03 2008-02 2009-01 2009-12 2010-11 2011-10 2012-09 2013-08 2014-07 2015-06 2016-050

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

US VEHICLE ASSSEMBLIES VS. POWDER SHIPMENTS

MVA.AUTOAS.S MVA.TRUCKS.SMVA.TOTASS.S Structural Parts & Friction Powder Shipments short tons

Asse

mbl

ies M

onth

ly A

nnua

l Rat

e S.

A., M

illio

ns

IRO

N PO

WDE

R SH

IPM

ENTS

SHO

RT T

ONS

INDUSTRY TRENDSFarm Equipment/Lawn & Garden

Industrial HeatingAerospace

Semiconductor Book to Bill RatioTotal Industrial vs. Manufacturing


Industrial Production of Farm Machinery Equipment vs. Iron Powder Shipments


Jan-98Jul-9

8Jan-99

Jul-99Jan-00

Jul-00Jan-01

Jul-01Jan-02

Jul-02Jan-03

Jul-03Jan-04

Jul-04Jan-05

Jul-05Jan-06

Jul-06Jan-07

Jul-07Jan-08

Jul-08Jan-09

Jul-09Jan-10

Jul-10Jan-11

Jul-11Jan-12

Jul-12Jan-13

Jul-13Jan-14

Jul-14Jan-15

Jul-15Jan-16

Jul-16Jan-17

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Industr ial P roduction Index Value of Farm Machinery and Equipment N AICS 333111 vs. Iron Powder Shipments

Iron Powder Shipments for Structural Parts Farm machinery and equipment (NAICS = 333111); s.a. IP

Shor

t Ton

s

Inde

x Va

lue


Tractor Sales and Inventory vs. Iron Powder Shipments

The AEM Ag Tractor and Combine Report is provided monthly and is derived from AEM member companies through proprietary statistical reporting programs. The data is provided by AEM members and represents preliminary monthly retail sales of Ag equipment are available for the U.S., Canada and Russia. For more information, please visit: http://www.aem.org/MarketInfo/Stats/AgTractorCombine/. Attention media: to speak with an AEM spokesperson about the data, please contact Pat Monroe at [email protected].

Nov-05

Feb-06

May-06

Aug-06

Nov-06

Feb-07

May-07

Aug-07

Nov-07

Feb-08

May-08

Aug-08

Nov-08

Feb-09

May-09

Aug-09

Nov-09

Feb-10

May-10

Aug-10

Nov-10

Feb-11

May-11

Aug-11

Nov-11

Feb-12

May-12

Aug-12

Nov-12

Feb-13

May-13

Aug-13

Nov-13

Feb-14

May-14

Aug-14

Nov-14

Feb-15

May-15

Aug-15

Nov-15

Feb-16

May-16

Aug-16

Nov-16

- 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000

100,000 110,000 120,000 130,000 140,000 150,000 160,000

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000 Tractor-Combine Sales and Inventory vs. MPIF Iron Powder Shipments

Total Farm Wheel Tractors - U.S. and Canada -Inventory by Month (units) Polynomial (Total Farm Wheel Tractors - U.S. and Canada -Inventory by Month (units) )Total Farm Wheel Tractors - U.S. and Canada - Industry Retail sales by Month Iron Powder Shipments, Structural Parts

Trac

tor U

nits

Iron

Pow

der S

hort

Ton

s

http://www.aem.org/MarketInfo/Stats/AgTractorCombine/


Total Farm Wheel Tractors - U.S. and Canada Inventory to Trailing-12-Month Sales Ratio (trying to get updated data)

The AEM Ag Tractor and Combine Report is provided monthly and is derived from AEM member companies through proprietary statistical reporting programs. The data is provided by AEM members and represents preliminary monthly retail sales of Ag equipment are available for the U.S., Canada and Russia. For more information, please visit: http://www.aem.org/MarketInfo/Stats/AgTractorCombine/. Attention media: to speak with an AEM spokesperson about the data, please contact Pat Monroe at [email protected].

Nov-05

Feb-06

May-06

Aug-06

Nov-06

Feb-07

May-07

Aug-07

Nov-07

Feb-08

May-08

Aug-08

Nov-08

Feb-09

May-09

Aug-09

Nov-09

Feb-10

May-10

Aug-10

Nov-10

Feb-11

May-11

Aug-11

Nov-11

Feb-12

May-12

Aug-12

Nov-12

Feb-13

May-13

Aug-13

Nov-13

Feb-14

May-14

Aug-14

Nov-14

Feb-15

May-15

Aug-15

Nov-15

Feb-16

May-16

Aug-16

Nov-16

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

Total Farm Wheel Tractors - U.S. And Canada Inventory To Trailing-12-Month Sales Ratio – Calculated

http://www.aem.org/MarketInfo/Stats/AgTractorCombine/


• IH Economic Indicators: All Numbers Down from September• Industrial Heating’s monthly economic indicators for October 2016 experienced an overall decline from last month. However, three

of the four indices still showed growth. In fact, the expected change in the health of the industry was at its highest level since April 2016. October 2016’s index numbers reflect the changes experienced by responding companies as they compare their September 2016 business levels to their August 2016 levels.

• October 2016’s index numbers:• Change in number of request for quotes from August to Sept. – 51.8• Change in number of orders from August to Sept. – 50.4• Change in backlog from August to Sept. – 47.1• Expected change in the health of the industry through Oct. – 51.9• A number above 50.0 indicates increased activity or growth. A number below 50.0 indicates decreased

activity or a decline in growth. Look for these numbers, along with historical values, in November 2016’s Industrial Heating.

Industrial Heating


U.S. & Global Aerospace Market – Global Market Value of $5.9 Trillion

Source: Boeing & BOG Fed Reserve

1998-01 1999-07 2001-01 2002-07 2004-01 2005-07 2007-01 2008-07 2010-01 2011-07 2013-01 2014-07 2016-010.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

120.00

-

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000

20,000

24,000

28,000

32,000

36,000

40,000

44,000

Industr ial P roduction Index For Aerospace Manufactur ing And Aircraft, Aircraft Parts vs. Iron P owder Shipments

January 1972 - October 2016

Aerospace NAICS 3364-9 Aircraft and parts (NAICS = 336411-3); s.a. IPPowder Shipments for Structural Parts and Friction


North American Semiconductor Book to Bill Ratio

December 15, 2016 — North America-based manufacturers of semiconductor equipment posted $1.55 billion in orders worldwide in November 2016 (three-month average basis) and a book-to-bill ratio of 0.96, according to the November Equipment Market Data Subscription (EMDS) Book-to-Bill Report published today by SEMI.

A book-to-bill of 0.96 means that $96 worth of orders were received for every $100 of product billed for the month.SEMI reports that the three-month average of worldwide bookings in November 2016 was $1.55 billion. The bookings figure is 4.0% higher than the final October 2016 level of $1.49 billion, and is 25.1% higher than the November 2015 order level of $1.24 billion.The three-month average of worldwide billings in November 2016 was $1.61 billion. The billings figure is 1.1 % lower than the final October 2016 level of $1.63 billion, and is 25.2% higher than the November 2015 billings level of $1.29 billion.

“As 2016 comes towards a close, equipment spending is stronger than expected at the start of the year," said Dan Tracy, senior director, SEMI. "Spending has been driven by 3D NAND, leading-edge foundry, and advanced packaging investments, and these segments are key for the expected spending growth in 2017."

Source: Semi.org

Jan-

11M

ar-1

1M

ay-1

1Ju

l-11

Sep-

11N

ov-1

1Ja

n-12

Mar

-12

May

-12

Jul-1

2Se

p-12

Nov

-12

Jan-

13M

ar-1

3M

ay-1

3Ju

l-13

Sep-

13N

ov-1

3Ja

n-14

Mar

-14

May

-14

Jul-1

4Se

p-14

Nov

-14

Jan-

15M

ar-1

5M

ay-1

5Ju

l-15

Sep-

15N

ov-1

5Ja

n-16

Mar

-16

May

-16

Jul-1

6Se

p-16

Nov

-16

Jan-

17

$600.0

$800.0

$1,000.0

$1,200.0

$1,400.0

$1,600.0

$1,800.0

$2,000.0

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

Semiconductor Book-To-Bill Ratio

Bookings (Three-Month avg.) Billings (Three-Month avg.) Book-to-Bill Ratio

Billi

ngs/

Book

ings

in $

Mill

ions

Book

to B

ill R

atio

http://www.semi.org/en/Store/MarketInformation/equipment/ctr_027202

http://www.semi.org/


Historical Book-to-Bill Ratio

• Here you can clearly see the precipitous drop in bookings and billings starting in 2007 and then continuing in 2008, bottoming in January/February 2009 and then the long climb upwards.

• For the past 3-4 years, we have been averaging $1.341B/month in bookings and $1.292B/month in Billings. The average ratio during this time has been 1.04, still indicating an expansion in our economy, but just barely.

Source: Semi.org

Mar

-03

Jul-0

3N

ov-0

3M

ar-0

4Ju

l-04

Nov

-04

Mar

-05

Jul-0

5N

ov-0

5M

ar-0

6Ju

l-06

Nov

-06

Mar

-07

Jul-0

7N

ov-0

7M

ar-0

8Ju

l-08

Nov

-08

Mar

-09

Jul-0

9N

ov-0

9M

ar-1

0Ju

l-10

Nov

-10

Mar

-11

Jul-1

1N

ov-1

1M

ar-1

2Ju

l-12

Nov

-12

Mar

-13

Jul-1

3N

ov-1

3M

ar-1

4Ju

l-14

Nov

-14

Mar

-15

Jul-1

5N

ov-1

5M

ar-1

6Ju

l-16

Nov

-16$0.0

$200.0

$400.0

$600.0

$800.0

$1,000.0

$1,200.0

$1,400.0

$1,600.0

$1,800.0

$2,000.0

-

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

Semiconductor Book-To-Bill Ratio

Bookings (Three-Month avg.) Billings (Three-Month avg.) Book-to-Bill Ratio

Billi

ngs/

Book

ings

in $

Mill

ions


Total Industrial vs. Manufacturing - Production, Capacity, & Utilization


1990-011991-041992-071993-101995-011996-041997-071998-102000-012001-042002-072003-102005-012006-042007-072008-102010-012011-042012-072013-102015-012016-040

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Total Production Index vs. Manufacturing IndexTotal Production Capacity vs. Manufacturing Capacity

Total Production Capacity vs. Manufacturing Capacity Utilization

Total index; s.a. IP Manufacturing (NAICS); s.a. IP Total index; s.a. CAP Manufacturing (NAICS); s.a. CAP Total index; s.a. CAPUTLManufacturing (NAICS); s.a. CAPUTL

Prod

uctio

n In

dex

Valu

e

Perc

ent C

apac

ity U

tiliza

tion

%


Post RecessionTotal Production vs. Iron Powder Shipments


2008-07

2008-09

2008-11

2009-01

2009-03

2009-05

2009-07

2009-09

2009-11

2010-01

2010-03

2010-05

2010-07

2010-09

2010-11

2011-01

2011-03

2011-05

2011-07

2011-09

2011-11

2012-01

2012-03

2012-05

2012-07

2012-09

2012-11

2013-01

2013-03

2013-05

2013-07

2013-09

2013-11

2014-01

2014-03

2014-05

2014-07

2014-09

2014-11

2015-01

2015-03

2015-05

2015-07

2015-09

2015-11

2016-01

2016-03

2016-05

2016-07

2016-090

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

Production Index For Major Appliances, Light Trucks/Utility Vehicles, Motor Vehicles/Parts, Aircraft & Parts, Farm Machinery Engine Turbine & Power Transmission, And Medical Equipment vs. Iron Powder Shipments

Medical equipment and supplies (NAICS = 3391); s.a. IP Farm machinery and equipment (NAICS = 333111); s.a. IPEngine, turbine, and power transmission equipment (NAICS = 3336); s.a. IP Major appliance (NAICS = 33522); s.a. IPLight truck and utility vehicle (NAICS = 336112); s.a. IP Motor vehicles and parts (NAICS = 3361-3); s.a. IPAircraft and parts (NAICS = 336411-3); s.a. IP Iron Powder Shipments s.t.

Prod

uctio

n In

dex

Valu

e

Shor

t Ton

s


US Firearms Production

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 -

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

US Firearm Production

Pistols Revolvers Rifles Shotguns Misc Total

num

ber o

f Fire

arm

s

Annual U.S. firearm production 2005-2014, U.S. Department of Justice, Bureau of Alcohol, Firearms and Explosives

ENERGY


Spot Prices Crude Oil & Natural Gas


US Field Production of Crude Oil

Source: EIA

Jan-50Jul-5

1Jan-53

Jul-54Jan-56

Jul-57Jan-59

Jul-60Jan-62

Jul-63Jan-65

Jul-66Jan-68

Jul-69Jan-71

Jul-72Jan-74

Jul-75Jan-77

Jul-78Jan-80

Jul-81Jan-83

Jul-84Jan-86

Jul-87Jan-89

Jul-90Jan-92

Jul-93Jan-95

Jul-96Jan-98

Jul-99Jan-01

Jul-02Jan-04

Jul-05Jan-07

Jul-08Jan-10

Jul-11Jan-13

Jul-14Jan-16

Jul-17

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

US Field Production Crude Oil

1000's barrels Crude Oil

Thou

sand

s of

Bar

rels


North American Rig Count

Source: Baker Hughes

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

North American Rig Count 1991-2016

US Canada

Activ

e Ri

gs

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52250

750

1250

1750

2250

2750

3250

North American Rig Count - Weekly Pat -tern

2010-2016

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Weeks

Rig

Coun

t


North American Rig Count: Oil vs. Gas

Source: Baker Hughes

1/7/2

000

7/7/2

000

1/7/2

001

7/7/2

001

1/7/2

002

7/7/2

002

1/7/2

003

7/7/2

003

1/7/2

004

7/7/2

004

1/7/2

005

7/7/2

005

1/7/2

006

7/7/2

006

1/7/2

007

7/7/2

007

1/7/2

008

7/7/2

008

1/7/2

009

7/7/2

009

1/7/2

010

7/7/2

010

1/7/2

011

7/7/2

011

1/7/2

012

7/7/2

012

1/7/2

013

7/7/2

013

1/7/2

014

7/7/2

014

1/7/2

015

7/7/2

015

1/7/2

016

7/7/2

016

1/7/2

0170%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

North American Rig Count % Oil vs. % Gas

% Oil % Gas


• Forty-four North American oilfield services companies had declared bankruptcy this year through late July, Haynes and Boone LLP said in a report, but the sector appears primed to hit a huge debt wall in the next five years.

• Moody’s Investor Service warned that speculative-grade companies are particularly vulnerable as almost $110 billion of debt matures or expires between now and 2021. The burden will nearly triple to $21 billion from 2017 to 2018.

• “While some companies will be able to delay refinancing until business conditions improve, for the lowest-rated entities, onerous interest payments and required capex will consume cash balances and challenge their ability to wait it out,” Morris Borenstein, Moody’s assistant vice president, said in a prepared statement. “We also see companies facing weakening financial covenant cushions that can accelerate default or result in expensive bank amendments that may or may not alleviate refinancing needs.”

• More than $29 billion in issuance and revolving debt will come due in 2021, Moody’s said in its report, with low-rated entities constituting 65% of the total. More than 70% of the rated high-yield bonds and term loans that mature through 2018 are rated Caa1 or lower, the report said, and more than 90% are below B1.

• Those figures don’t include about $3.1 billion of rated and unrated committed revolvers among issuers rated Caa1 or lower that are set to expire through 2018.• Huge investments made during the shale boom between 2011 and 2015 laid the foundation for accumulation of debt. Much of the maturing debt was issued

during that time, Moody’s said, while drilling set records.• However, the collapse of crude oil prices that began in late 2014 has drastically reduced drilling and placed enormous financial pressures on oilfield service

companies, cutting off avenues for refinancing and forcing many to foreclose.• Moody’s expects more than one-third of the 67 companies analyzed in the report to have debt/EBITDA above 10x in 2016, placing them more at risk for debt

restructurings and defaults.• Haynes and Boone listed 83 total filings for 2015 and 2016 in the July 20 issuance of its Oilfield Services Bankruptcy Tracker. Secured and unsecured debt for

2016 through late July, $8.16 billion, is 53.5% above the figure for all of 2015.

Oilfield Service Companies Debt Issues

IRON ORE PRODUCTION &

IMPORTS, EXPORTS, SHIPMENTSIron, Steel, Nonalloy, & Alloy Powders


USGS Iron Ore Production vs. Apparent Consumption, MT

1900190319061909191219151918192119241927193019331936193919421945194819511954195719601963196619691972197519781981198419871990199319961999200220052008201120140

20,000,000

40,000,000

60,000,000

80,000,000

100,000,000

120,000,000

140,000,000

160,000,000IRON ORE PRODUCTION vs. APPARENT CONSUMPTION IN METRIC TONS

US Production Apparent consumption Imports US production + Imports


Iron Powder Shipments vs. New Orders & Shipments of Durable Goods

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, MPIF.

Jan-01

May-01

Sep-01Jan-02

May-02

Sep-02Jan-03

May-03

Sep-03Jan-04

May-04

Sep-04Jan-05

May-05

Sep-05Jan-06

May-06

Sep-06Jan-07

May-07

Sep-07Jan-08

May-08

Sep-08Jan-09

May-09

Sep-09Jan-10

May-10

Sep-10Jan-11

May-11

Sep-11Jan-12

May-12

Sep-12Jan-13

May-13

Sep-13Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16Jan-17

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

Monthly Structural Parts Powder Shipments vs. New Orders & Shipments of Durable Goods

New Orders Durable Goods ($Mil) SA Shipments of Durable Goods ($Mil) SA Structural Parts Powder shipments


Estimated Iron Powder Usage of Domestic Autos and Light Trucks Sold vs. Housing Starts

Source: Wards Auto, Bureau of Economic Analysis, US Census Bureau and Dept of Housing and Urban Development

Jan-98Jun-98

Nov-98Apr-9

9

Sep-99

Feb-00Jul-0

0

Dec-00

May-01Oct-

01

Mar-02

Aug-02Jan-03

Jun-03

Nov-03Apr-0

4

Sep-04

Feb-05Jul-0

5

Dec-05

May-06Oct-

06

Mar-07

Aug-07Jan-08

Jun-08

Nov-08Apr-0

9

Sep-09

Feb-10Jul-1

0

Dec-10

May-11Oct-

11

Mar-12

Aug-12Jan-13

Jun-13

Nov-13Apr-1

4

Sep-14

Feb-15Jul-1

5

Dec-15

May-16Oct-

16

Mar-17

0

4000

8000

12000

16000

20000

24000

28000

32000

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

2,400

ESTIMATED IRON POWDER USED IN DOMESTIC VEHICLES SOLD VS. SINGLE FAMILY HOUSING STARTS

total short tons used in light duty domestic vehicles single family units in Thousands Total Housing Starts in Thous

Shor

t ton

s

hous

ing

star

ts i

n th

ousa

nds


Imports of Iron/Nonalloy and Alloy Steel Powders in USD

Source: USITC

20012002

20032004

20052006

20072008

20092010

20112012

20132014

2015

2015 YTD

2016 YTD $0

$20,000,000

$40,000,000

$60,000,000

$80,000,000

$100,000,000

$120,000,000

$140,000,000

$-

$0.20

$0.40

$0.60

$0.80

$1.00

$1.20

$1.40

$1.60

$1.80

$2.00

IMPORTS OF POWDERS, 7205210000ALLOY STEEL POWDERS IN $USD

Canada Sweden Japan Germany United Kingdom China Belgium India Total Import Value Avg. Price/Kg

$USD

20012002

20032004

20052006

20072008

20092010

20112012

20132014

2015

2015 YTD

2016 YTD $0

$20,000,000

$40,000,000

$60,000,000

$80,000,000

$100,000,000

$120,000,000

$-

$200.00

$400.00

$600.00

$800.00

$1,000.00

$1,200.00

$1,400.00

$1,600.00

$1,800.00

$2,000.00

IMPORTS OF POWDERS, 7205290000IRON OR NONALLOY STEEL POWDERS IN

$USD

Canada Germany Russia China

Japan Romania Sweden India

Total Import Value Avg. Price/mt

$ U

SD


Imports of Iron/Nonalloy Steel & Alloy Steel Powders by Qty

Source: USITC

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2015 YTD

2016 YTD

0

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

50,000,000

60,000,000

70,000,000

$-

$0.20

$0.40

$0.60

$0.80

$1.00

$1.20

$1.40

$1.60

$1.80

$2.00

IMPORTS OF POWDERS, 7205210000ALLOY STEEL POWDERS IN KGS

Canada Sweden China Japan Germany

United Kingdom Brazil Korea total kgs Avg. Price/Kg

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2015 YTD

2016 YTD

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

$-

$200.00

$400.00

$600.00

$800.00

$1,000.00

$1,200.00

$1,400.00

$1,600.00

$1,800.00

$2,000.00

IMPORTS OF POWDERS, IRON OR NONALLOY STEEL IN TONS

Canada Germany Russia China

Japan Romania Sweden India

TOTAL Avg. Price/mt


Exports of Alloy Steel Powders

Source: USITC

20012002

20032004

20052006

20072008

20092010

20112012

20132014

2015

2015 YTD

2016 YTD $0

$10,000,000

$20,000,000

$30,000,000

$40,000,000

$50,000,000

$60,000,000

$70,000,000

$80,000,000

$-

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

US Exports of Alloy Steel Powders in US $

Germany Taiwan China Korea Belgium

Romania Malaysia Brazil Mexico India

Canada Thailand Total Exported Average Price/kg

PRIC

E/KG

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2015 YTD

2016 YTD

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

$-

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

US EXPORTS IN KGS OF ALLOY STEEL POWDERS

Germany China Taiwan Romania Korea Mexico Canada Brazil Belgium India Sweden Total Exported Average Price/kg

KGS


Exports of Iron or Nonalloy Steel Powders

Source: USITC

2001 2002 20032004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2015 YTD

2016 YTD

$-

$20,000,000

$40,000,000

$60,000,000

$80,000,000

$100,000,000

$120,000,000

$140,000,000

$-

$200.00

$400.00

$600.00

$800.00

$1,000.00

$1,200.00

$1,400.00

$1,600.00

$1,800.00

$2,000.00

US EXPORTS OF POWDERS, IRON OR NONALLOY STEEL IN US $

Canada Mexico Germany Korea China Taiwan

Netherlands Spain India Sweden Japan Brazil

Total Exported PRICE/TON

TOTA

L U

S EX

PORT

S IN

$

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2015 YTD

2016 YTD

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

$-

$200.00

$400.00

$600.00

$800.00

$1,000.00

$1,200.00

$1,400.00

$1,600.00

$1,800.00

$2,000.00

US EXPORTS IN TONS OF POWDERS, IRON OR NONALLOY STEEL

Canada Mexico Germany Korea China Taiwan

Netherlands Spain India Sweden Japan Brazil

Israel Romania Total Exported PRICE/TON

TOTA

L EX

PORT

S IN

TO

NS

IMPORTS AND EXPORTSAluminum, Copper, & Nickel Powder


Imports in USD and KGs of Aluminum Powder, of Non-Lamellar Structure, 7603100000

Source: USITC

20012002

20032004

20052006

20072008

20092010

20112012

20132014

2015

2015 YTD

2016 YTD 0

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

50,000,000

60,000,000

70,000,000

$-

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

$4.00

$4.50

$5.00

Imports in USD of A luminum Powders of Non-Lamellar Structure, 7603100000

China Germany Bahrain United Kingdom Korea

Brazil Total USD Avg. Price/KG

20012002

20032004

20052006

20072008

20092010

20112012

20132014

2015

2015 YTD

2016 YTD 0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

16,000,000

18,000,000

20,000,000

$-

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

$4.00

$4.50

$5.00

Imports in KGs of Aluminum Powders of Non-Lamellar Structure, 7603100000

Australia Bahrain Germany China United Kingdom Brazil

Korea France Total KGs Avg. Price/KG


Exports in USD and KGs of Aluminum Powder, of Non-Lamellar Structure, 7603100000

Source: USITC

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2015 YTD

2016 YTD

$-

$5,000,000

$10,000,000

$15,000,000

$20,000,000

$25,000,000

$30,000,000

$35,000,000

$40,000,000

$45,000,000

$-

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

$7.00

Exports in USD of A luminum Powder, of Non-Lamellar Structure, 7603100000

Mexico Canada Japan China Russia Italy France Belgium South Africa Israel Germany Total USD Avg Price/Kg

Volu

me

in $

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2015 YTD

2016 YTD

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

9,000,000

10,000,000

$-

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

$7.00

Exports in KGs Aluminum Powder, of Non-Lamellar Structure, 7603100000

Mexico Canada Japan France Germany South Africa China Spain Russia Belgium Italy Total KGs Avg Price/Kg

Volu

me

in K

gs


Imports in USD and KGs of Copper Powder, Non-Lamellar Structure, 7406100000

Source: USITC

20012002

20032004

20052006

20072008

20092010

20112012

20132014

2015

2015 YTD

2016 YTD 0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

40,000,000

45,000,000

50,000,000

$-

$2.00

$4.00

$6.00

$8.00

$10.00

$12.00

$14.00

Imports in USD of Copper P owders OF NON-LAMELLAR STRUCTURE, 7406100000

Germany Italy China Japan United Kingdom Spain Total KGs Avg Price/KG

20012002

20032004

20052006

20072008

20092010

20112012

20132014

2015

2015 YTD

2016 YTD 0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

$-

$2.00

$4.00

$6.00

$8.00

$10.00

$12.00

$14.00

Imports in KGs of Copper Powders OF N ON -LAMELLAR STRUCTURE, 7406100000

Italy Germany China Japan Spain United Kingdom Total KGs Avg Price/KG


Exports in USD and KGs of Copper Powder, Non-Lamellar Structure, 7406100000

Source: USITC

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2015 YTD

2016 YTD

$-

$10,000,000

$20,000,000

$30,000,000

$40,000,000

$50,000,000

$60,000,000

$70,000,000

$80,000,000

$-

$2.00

$4.00

$6.00

$8.00

$10.00

$12.00

Exports in USD of Copper Powders Non-Lamellar Structure, 7406100000

Canada Korea Taiwan China Belgium Mexico Hong Kong United Kingdom Germany Poland Japan Total USDAvg Price/Kg

Volu

me

in $

20012002

20032004

20052006

20072008

20092010

20112012

20132014

2015

2015 YTD

2016 YTD 0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

$-

$2.00

$4.00

$6.00

$8.00

$10.00

$12.00

Exports in KGs of Copper Powders Non-Lamellar St ructure, 7406100000

Canada Korea Belgium China Taiwan Germany Japan Mexico United Kingdom Hong Kong Poland Total KGs Avg Price/Kg

Volu

me

in K

Gs


Imports in USD and KGs of Nickel Powder, 7504000010

Source: USITC

20012002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20092010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2015 YTD

2016 YTD

$-

$50,000,000

$100,000,000

$150,000,000

$200,000,000

$250,000,000

$300,000,000

$-

$5.00

$10.00

$15.00

$20.00

$25.00

$30.00

$35.00

$40.00 Imports in USD of N ickel Powder, 7504000010

Canada United Kingdom Australia South Africa Germany

Russia Japan Belgium Total Avg Price

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2015 YTD

2016 YTD

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

9,000,000

10,000,000

$-

$5.00

$10.00

$15.00

$20.00

$25.00

$30.00

$35.00

$40.00 Imports in KGs of Nickel P owder, 7504000010

Canada South Africa Australia United Kingdom Russia Belgium Japan China Total Kgs Avg Price

KGs


Exports in USD and KGs of Nickel Powder, 7504000010

Source: USITC

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2015 YTD

2016 YTD

0

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

50,000,000

60,000,000

70,000,000

80,000,000

$-

$10.00

$20.00

$30.00

$40.00

$50.00

$60.00

Exports in USD of N ickel Powder, 7504000010

Germany Singapore China Japan Canada

United Kingdom Korea Brazil Mexico Thailand

India Total USD Avg Price/Kg

Volu

me

in $

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2015 YTD

2016 YTD

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2,000,000

$-

$10.00

$20.00

$30.00

$40.00

$50.00

$60.00

Exports in KGs of N ickel Powder, 7504000010

Germany China Singapore Japan Canada United Kingdom Korea Thailand Mexico India Brazil Total KGs Avg Price/Kg

Volu

me

in K

Gs

SPECIAL FEATUREJapanese Imports


Japanese Imports in KGs of 720521010 Alloy Steel PowdersContaining not less than 1% but less than 5 % by weight of nickel

Source: Japan Statistics

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (Oct) YTD -

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

-

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

Japanese Imports in KGs of 720521010 Alloy Steel P owders, Contain ing not less than 1% but less than 5 % by weight of n ickel

203 SWEDEN 302 CANADA 103 R KOREA 304 USA 205 U KING 213 GERMANY (7205.21-010 )TOTAL


Japanese Imports in KGs of 720521090 Alloy Steel Powders, Other


2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (Oct) YTD -

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

-

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000 Japanese Imports in KGs of 720521090 Alloy Steel Powders, Other

203 SWEDEN 103 R KOREA 105 CHINA 111 THAILND 117 PHILPIN 208 BELGIUM 106 TAIWAN 410 BRAZIL 210 FRANCE 304 USA

205 U KING 213 GERMANY 113 MALYSIA (7205.21-090 )TOTAL

IN K

GS


Japanese Imports In KGs of 720529 Iron or Nonalloy Steel Powder


2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (Oct) YTD -

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

40,000,000

45,000,000

50,000,000

-

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

40,000,000

45,000,000

50,000,000

Import in KGs of 720529 Powders, Iron Or Nonalloy Steel Powder

203 SWEDEN 123 INDIA 105 CHINA 213 GERMANY 304 USA103 R KOREA 106 TAIWAN 302 CANADA (7205.29-000 )TOTAL

IN K

GS


Japanese Imports in KGs of Aluminum Powder 760310000


2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (Oct) YTD -

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

5,000,000

-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

5,000,000

Japanese Imports in KGs of Aluminum Powder 760310000

105 CHINA 135 BAHRAIN 601 AUSTRAL 304 USA 123 INDIA 210 FRANCE 410 BRAZIL 213 GERMANY 205 U KING 103 R KOREA

207 NETHLDS 112 SNGAPOR 202 NORWAY 203 SWEDEN 220 ITALY 223 POLAND 225 AUSTRIA 302 CANADA (7603.10-000 )TOTAL

IN K

GS


Japanese Imports in KGs of 740610000 Copper Powder


2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (Oct) YTD -

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

$-

$2.00

$4.00

$6.00

$8.00

$10.00

$12.00

$14.00

Japanese Imports in KGs of 740610000 Copper P owder

105 CHINA 205 U KING 210 FRANCE 213 GERMANY 220 ITALY 304 USA 103 R KOREA 123 INDIA215 SWITZLD 106 TAIWAN 113 MALYSIA 203 SWEDEN 218 SPAIN 302 CANADA 601 AUSTRAL PRICE/KG

IN K

GS

SPECIAL FEATUREEuropean Imports

January – September


EUROPEAN IMPORTS IN TONS OF 72052100 - POWDERS, OF ALLOY STEEL (EXCL. POWDERS OF FERRO-ALLOYS

AND RADIOACTIVE IRON POWDERS "ISOTOPES")

Source: Eurostats

26073.4; 64%

14424.8; 36%

2016 YTD IMPORTS FROM EU28 COUNTRIES AND FROM OUTSIDE OF EU28 COUNTRIES IN METRIC TONS

OF 72052100 - POWDERS, OF ALLOY STEEL (EXCL. POWDERS OF FERRO-ALLOYS AND RADIOACTIVE IRON POWDERS "ISOTOPES")

EU28_EXTRA EU28_INTRA

39%

29%

22%

6%

2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

2016 YTD IMPORTS EXTERNAL TO EU28 COUNTRIESIN METRIC TONS OF 72052100 - POWDERS, OF ALLOY STEEL (EXCL. POWDERS OF FERRO-ALLOYS AND RADIOACTIVE IRON POWDERS

"ISOTOPES")

CANADA TURKEY UNITED STATES CHINA (PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF)JAPAN BRAZIL RUSSIAN FEDERATION (RUSSIA) SOUTH AFRICA (incl. NA ->1989)THAILAND INDIA TAIWAN SLOVENIAEGYPT


EUROPEAN ANNUAL IMPORTS EXTERNAL TO EU28 COUNTRIES IN TONS OF 72052100 - POWDERS, OF ALLOY STEEL (EXCL. POWDERS OF FERRO-ALLOYS


Source: Eurostats

Jan.-Dec. 2008 Jan.-Dec. 2009 Jan.-Dec. 2010 Jan.-Dec. 2011 Jan.-Dec. 2012 Jan.-Dec. 2013 Jan.-Dec. 2014 Jan.-Dec. 2015 JAN - Sep 2016 -

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

YEARLY IMPORTS EXTERNAL TO EU28 COUNTRIES IN METRIC TONS OF 72052100 - POWDERS, OF ALLOY STEEL (EXCL. POWDERS OF FERRO-ALLOYS AND RADIOACTIVE IRON POWDERS

"ISOTOPES")

CANADA TURKEY UNITED STATES CHINA (PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF) JAPAN BRAZIL RUSSIAN FEDERATION (RUSSIA) SOUTH AFRICA (incl. NA ->1989) THAILAND INDIA TAIWAN SLOVENIA

EGYPT


EUROPEAN MONTHLY IMPORTS EXTERNAL TO EU28 COUNTRIES IN TONS OF 72052100 - POWDERS, OF ALLOY STEEL (EXCL. POWDERS OF FERRO-ALLOYS


Source: Eurostats

Jan. 2014

Feb. 2014

Mar. 2014

Apr. 2014

May. 2014

Jun. 2014

Jul. 2014

Aug. 2014

Sep. 2014

Oct. 2014

Nov. 2014

Dec. 2014

Jan. 2015

Feb. 2015

Mar. 2015

Apr. 2015

May. 2015

Jun. 2015

Jul. 2015

Aug. 2015

Sep. 2015

Oct. 2015

Nov. 2015

Dec. 2015

Jan. 2016

Feb. 2016

Mar. 2016

Apr. 2016

May. 2016

Jun. 2016

Jul. 2016

Aug. 2016

Sep. 2016

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

MONTHLY IMPORTS EXTERNAL TO EU28 COUNTRIES IN METRIC TONS OF 72052100 - POWDERS, OF ALLOY STEEL (EXCL. POWDERS OF FERRO-ALLOYS AND RADIOACTIVE IRON POWDERS "ISOTOPES")

CANADA TURKEY UNITED STATES CHINA (PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF) JAPAN BRAZIL RUSSIAN FEDERATION (RUSSIA) SOUTH AFRICA (incl. NA ->1989) THAILAND INDIA TAIWAN SLOVENIA EGYPT


EUROPEAN IMPORTS IN TONS OF 72052900 - POWDERS, OF PIG IRON, SPIEGELEISEN, IRON OR NON-ALLOY STEEL (EXCL.

POWDERS OF FERRO-ALLOYS AND RADIOACTIVE IRON POWDERS "ISOTOPES")

Source: Eurostats

144736.8; 71%

59708.7; 29%


OF 72052900 - POWDERS, OF PIG IRON, SPIEGELEISEN, IRON OR NON-ALLOY STEEL (EXCL. POWDERS OF FERRO-ALLOYS AND RADIOACTIVE

IRON POWDERS "ISOTOPES")

EU28_INTRA EU28_EXTRA

34%

30%

16%

8%

3%4% 1%2% 1% 0%0%0% 0% 0% 0%

2016 YTD IMPORTS EXTERNAL TO EU28 COUNTRIESIN METRIC TONS OF 72052900 - POWDERS, OF PIG IRON,

SPIEGELEISEN, IRON OR NON-ALLOY STEEL (EXCL. POWDERS OF FERRO-ALLOYS AND RADIOACTIVE IRON POWDERS "ISOTOPES")

CANADA UNITED STATESEGYPT CHINA (PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF)BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA SOUTH AFRICA (incl. NA ->1989)RUSSIAN FEDERATION (RUSSIA) JAPANTHAILAND INDIA


EUROPEAN ANNUAL IMPORTS EXTERNAL TO EU28 COUNTRIES IN TONS OF 72052900 - POWDERS, OF PIG IRON, SPIEGELEISEN, IRON OR NON-ALLOY STEEL (EXCL.


Source: Eurostats

Jan.-Dec. 2008 Jan.-Dec. 2009 Jan.-Dec. 2010 Jan.-Dec. 2011 Jan.-Dec. 2012 Jan.-Dec. 2013 Jan.-Dec. 2014 Jan.-Dec. 2015 Jan.-Sep. 2016 -

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

YEARLY IMPORTS EXTERNAL TO EU28 COUNTRIES IN METRIC TONS OF 72052900 - POWDERS, OF PIG IRON, SPIEGELEISEN, IRON OR NON-ALLOY STEEL (EXCL. POWDERS OF FERRO-ALLOYS AND

RADIOACTIVE IRON POWDERS "ISOTOPES")

CANADA UNITED STATES EGYPT CHINA (PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF) BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA SOUTH AFRICA (incl. NA ->1989) RUSSIAN FEDERATION (RUSSIA) JAPAN THAILAND INDIA

SLOVENIA AUSTRALIA BRAZIL KOREA, REPUBLIC OF (SOUTH KOREA) SINGAPORE TAIWAN TURKEY


EUROPEAN MONTHLY IMPORTS EXTERNAL TO EU28 COUNTRIES IN TONS OF 72052900 - POWDERS, OF PIG IRON, SPIEGELEISEN, IRON OR NON-ALLOY STEEL (EXCL.


Source: Eurostats

Jan. 2014

Feb. 2014

Mar. 2014

Apr. 2014

May. 2014

Jun. 2014

Jul. 2014

Aug. 2014

Sep. 2014

Oct. 2014

Nov. 2014

Dec. 2014

Jan. 2015

Feb. 2015

Mar. 2015

Apr. 2015

May. 2015

Jun. 2015

Jul. 2015

Aug. 2015

Sep. 2015

Oct. 2015

Nov. 2015

Dec. 2015

Jan. 2016

Feb. 2016

Mar. 2016

Apr. 2016

May. 2016

Jun. 2016

Jul. 2016

Aug. 2016

Sep. 2016

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

MONTHLY IMPORTS EXTERNAL TO EU28 COUNTRIES IN METRIC TONS OF 72052900 - POWDERS, OF PIG IRON, SPIEGELEISEN, IRON OR NON-ALLOY STEEL (EXCL. POWDERS OF FERRO-ALLOYS AND RADIOACTIVE IRON POWDERS "ISOTOPES")

CANADA UNITED STATES EGYPT CHINA (PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF) BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA SOUTH AFRICA (incl. NA ->1989) RUSSIAN FEDERATION (RUSSIA) JAPAN THAILAND INDIA

SLOVENIA AUSTRALIA BRAZIL KOREA, REPUBLIC OF (SOUTH KOREA) SINGAPORE TAIWAN TURKEY


EUROPEAN IMPORTS IN TONS OF 74061000 - COPPER POWDERS, OF NON-LAMELLAR STRUCTURE (EXCL. GRAINS OF

COPPER)

Source: Eurostats

9707.2; 58%7131.5; 42%


OF 74061000 - COPPER POWDERS, OF NON-LAMELLAR STRUCTURE (EXCL. GRAINS OF COPPER)


77%

21%

2% 0% 0% 0% 0%

2016 YTD IMPORTS EXTERNAL TO EU28 COUNTRIESIN METRIC TONS OF 74061000 - COPPER POWDERS, OF NON-

LAMELLAR STRUCTURE (EXCL. GRAINS OF COPPER)

RUSSIAN FEDERATION (RUSSIA) UNITED STATES CHINA (PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF)KOREA, REPUBLIC OF (SOUTH KOREA) AUSTRALIA JAPANSLOVENIA


EUROPEAN ANNUAL IMPORTS EXTERNAL TO EU28 COUNTRIES IN TONS OF 74061000 - COPPER POWDERS, OF NON-LAMELLAR STRUCTURE (EXCL. GRAINS OF

COPPER)

Source: Eurostats

Jan.-Dec. 2008 Jan.-Dec. 2009 Jan.-Dec. 2010 Jan.-Dec. 2011 Jan.-Dec. 2012 Jan.-Dec. 2013 Jan.-Dec. 2014 Jan.-Dec. 2015 Jan.-Sep. 20160

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

YEARLY IMPORTS EXTERNAL TO EU28 COUNTRIES IN METRIC TONS OF 74061000 - COPPER POWDERS, OF NON-LAMELLAR STRUCTURE (EXCL. GRAINS OF COPPER)

RUSSIAN FEDERATION (RUSSIA) UNITED STATES CHINA (PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF) KOREA, REPUBLIC OF (SOUTH KOREA) AUSTRALIA JAPAN SLOVENIA TURKEY


EUROPEAN MONTHLY IMPORTS EXTERNAL TO EU28 COUNTRIES IN TONS OF 74061000 - COPPER POWDERS, OF NON-LAMELLAR STRUCTURE (EXCL. GRAINS OF

COPPER)

Source: Eurostats

Jan. 2014

Feb. 2014

Mar. 2014

Apr. 2014

May. 2014

Jun. 2014

Jul. 2014

Aug. 2014

Sep. 2014

Oct. 2014

Nov. 2014

Dec. 2014

Jan. 2015

Feb. 2015

Mar. 2015

Apr. 2015

May. 2015

Jun. 2015

Jul. 2015

Aug. 2015

Sep. 2015

Oct. 2015

Nov. 2015

Dec. 2015

Jan. 2016

Feb. 2016

Mar. 2016

Apr. 2016

May. 2016

Jun. 2016

Jul. 2016

Aug. 2016

Sep. 2016

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

MONTHLY IMPORTS EXTERNAL TO EU28 COUNTRIES IN METRIC TONS OF 74061000 - COPPER POWDERS, OF NON-LAMELLAR STRUCTURE (EXCL. GRAINS OF COPPER)

RUSSIAN FEDERATION (RUSSIA) UNITED STATES CHINA (PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF) KOREA, REPUBLIC OF (SOUTH KOREA)AUSTRALIA JAPAN SLOVENIA TURKEY


EUROPEAN IMPORTS IN TONS OF 75040000 - POWDERS AND FLAKES, OF NICKEL (EXCL. NICKEL OXIDE SINTERS)

Source: Eurostats

7619; 72%

3030.8; 28%


OF 75040000 - POWDERS AND FLAKES, OF NICKEL (EXCL. NICKEL OXIDE SINTERS)

EU28_INTRA

26%

36%

19%

14%

2% 3%

2016 YTD IMPORTS EXTERNAL TO EU28 COUNTRIESIN METRIC TONS OF 75040000 - POWDERS AND FLAKES, OF NICKEL

(EXCL. NICKEL OXIDE SINTERS)

CANADA AUSTRALIA RUSSIAN FEDERATION (RUSSIA) UNITED STATES

CHINA (PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF) JAPAN


EUROPEAN ANNUAL IMPORTS EXTERNAL TO EU28 COUNTRIES IN TONS OF 75040000 - POWDERS AND FLAKES, OF NICKEL (EXCL. NICKEL OXIDE SINTERS)

Source: Eurostats


1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

YEARLY IMPORTS EXTERNAL TO EU28 COUNTRIES IN METRIC TONS OF 75040000 - POWDERS AND FLAKES, OF NICKEL (EXCL. NICKEL OXIDE SINTERS)

CANADA AUSTRALIA RUSSIAN FEDERATION (RUSSIA) UNITED STATES CHINA (PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF) JAPAN NORWAY (incl.SJ excl.1995,1996) TURKEY


EUROPEAN MONTHLY IMPORTS EXTERNAL TO EU28 COUNTRIES IN TONS OF 75040000 - POWDERS AND FLAKES, OF NICKEL (EXCL. NICKEL OXIDE SINTERS)

Source: Eurostats

Jan. 2014

Feb. 2014

Mar. 2014

Apr. 2014

May. 2014

Jun. 2014

Jul. 2014

Aug. 2014

Sep. 2014

Oct. 2014

Nov. 2014

Dec. 2014

Jan. 2015

Feb. 2015

Mar. 2015

Apr. 2015

May. 2015

Jun. 2015

Jul. 2015

Aug. 2015

Sep. 2015

Oct. 2015

Nov. 2015

Dec. 2015

Jan. 2016

Feb. 2016

Mar. 2016

Apr. 2016

May. 2016

Jun. 2016

Jul. 2016

Aug. 2016

Sep. 2016

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

MONTHLY IMPORTS EXTERNAL TO EU28 COUNTRIES IN METRIC TONS OF 75040000 - POWDERS AND FLAKES, OF NICKEL (EXCL. NICKEL OXIDE SINTERS)

CANADA AUSTRALIA RUSSIAN FEDERATION (RUSSIA) UNITED STATESCHINA (PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF) JAPAN NORWAY (incl.SJ excl.1995,1996) TURKEY


EUROPEAN IMPORTS IN TONS OF 76031000 - POWDERS OF ALUMINIUM, OF NON-LAMELLAR STRUCTURE (EXCL. PELLETS

OF ALUMINIUM)

Source: Eurostats

43365.6; 72%

16975.3; 28%


OF 76031000 - POWDERS OF ALUMINIUM, OF NON-LAMELLAR STRUCTURE (EXCL. PELLETS OF ALUMINIUM)


54%

19%

7%

5%

4%

4%

2% 2% 2%

2016 YTD IMPORTS EXTERNAL TO EU28 COUNTRIESIN METRIC TONS OF 76031000 - POWDERS OF ALUMINIUM, OF NON-

LAMELLAR STRUCTURE (EXCL. PELLETS OF ALUMINIUM)

RUSSIAN FEDERATION (RUSSIA) SLOVENIA BAHRAIN

INDIA AUSTRALIA CHINA (PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF)

SOUTH AFRICA (incl. NA ->1989) UNITED STATES ISRAEL (GAZA and JERICHO->1994)


EUROPEAN ANNUAL IMPORTS EXTERNAL TO EU28 COUNTRIES IN TONS OF 76031000 - POWDERS OF ALUMINIUM, OF NON-LAMELLAR STRUCTURE (EXCL. PELLETS

OF ALUMINIUM)

Source: Eurostats


5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

YEARLY IMPORTS EXTERNAL TO EU28 COUNTRIES IN METRIC TONS OF 76031000 - POWDERS OF ALUMINIUM, OF NON-LAMELLAR STRUCTURE (EXCL. PELLETS OF ALUMINIUM)

RUSSIAN FEDERATION (RUSSIA) SLOVENIA BAHRAIN INDIA AUSTRALIA CHINA (PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF) SOUTH AFRICA (incl. NA ->1989) UNITED STATES

ISRAEL (GAZA and JERICHO->1994)


EUROPEAN MONTHLY IMPORTS EXTERNAL TO EU28 COUNTRIES IN TONS OF 76031000 - POWDERS OF ALUMINIUM, OF NON-LAMELLAR STRUCTURE (EXCL. PELLETS

OF ALUMINIUM)

Source: Eurostats

Jan. 2014

Feb. 2014

Mar. 2014

Apr. 2014

May. 2014

Jun. 2014

Jul. 2014

Aug. 2014

Sep. 2014

Oct. 2014

Nov. 2014

Dec. 2014

Jan. 2015

Feb. 2015

Mar. 2015

Apr. 2015

May. 2015

Jun. 2015

Jul. 2015

Aug. 2015

Sep. 2015

Oct. 2015

Nov. 2015

Dec. 2015

Jan. 2016

Feb. 2016

Mar. 2016

Apr. 2016

May. 2016

Jun. 2016

Jul. 2016

Aug. 2016

Sep. 2016

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

MONTHLY IMPORTS EXTERNAL TO EU28 COUNTRIES IN METRIC TONS OF 76031000 - POWDERS OF ALUMINIUM, OF NON-LAMELLAR STRUCTURE (EXCL. PELLETS OF ALUMINIUM)

RUSSIAN FEDERATION (RUSSIA) SLOVENIA BAHRAIN INDIA AUSTRALIA CHINA (PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF) SOUTH AFRICA (incl. NA ->1989) UNITED STATES

ISRAEL (GAZA and JERICHO->1994)


GLOSSARY


• Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization (IPCU) is a measure of economic activity, released on a monthly basis by the United States Federal Reserve. The IPCU report for each month contains data for previous months (for example, June’s report releases information on May) about the total amount of US industrial production for that month, expressed as a %age of the gross production for a previous baseline year. The report also gives information about %age changes from month to month and year to year, as well as a detailed breakdown of production by industry grouping, most broadly for manufacturing, mining and utilities. The data in the report is based on employment records that detail the total hours worked by industrial-sector employees.

• The report also includes a measure of capacity utilization, meaning the %age ratio of actual production to potential production. The report presents data about average capacity over a number of years, a record of %age change in capacity from month to month, and a breakdown of capacity measures by industry and by stage of completeness (from crude to finished materials.)

• Traders consider the IPCU report important as a gauge for the future performance of assets in the marketplace. Because of this, the report can also function as a “trigger” to increase buying or selling pressure in certain industries. A capacity utilization %age of 85% or more can also be considered a signal for imminent inflation, but the inherent difficulty of measuring industrial capacity implies that this measure shouldn’t be exclusively relied on to predict market behavior.

• Definition: An index designed to measure changes in the level of output in the industrial sector of the economy. The index is grouped by both products (consumer goods, business equipment, intermediate goods, and materials) and industry (manufacturing, mining, and utilities).

• Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

• Frequency: Monthly

• Availability: Preliminary estimate released around the middle of the month for the immediately preceding month.Reason: While the industrial sector of the economy represents only about 20 % of GDP, because changes in GDP are heavily concentrated in the industrial sector changes in this index provide useful information on the current growth of GDP. The level of capacity utilization in the industrial sector provides information on the overall level of resource utilization in the economy which may in turn provide information on the likely future course of inflation.

• The index of Industrial Production is a fixed-weight measure of the physical output of the nation’s factories, mines, and utilities. Manufacturing production, the largest component of the total, can be accurately predicted using total manufacturing hours worked from the employment report. One of the bigger wildcards in this report is utility production, which can be quite volatile due to swings in the weather. Severe hot or cold spells can boost production as increased heating/cooling needs drive utility production up.

• In addition to production, this monthly report also provides a measure of capacity utilization. Though the rate of capacity utilization is seen as a critical gauge of the slack available in the economy, the market does not completely trust this measure. Capacity is very difficult to measure, and the Fed essentially assumes that growth in capacity in any given year follows a straight line. One can therefore predict the capacity utilization rate quite accurately based on the assumption for production growth. The 85% mark is seen as a key barrier over which inflationary pressures are generated, but given revisions to these data and the difficulties with capacity measurement, the 85% mark should be viewed cautiously. It would be appropriate to look for corroborating inflation indications from commodity prices and vendor deliveries.

Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization


• The Customs value is the value of imports as appraised by the U.S. Customs and Border Protection in accordance with the legal requirements of the Tariff Act of 1930, as amended.

This value is generally defined as the price actually paid or payable for merchandise when sold for exportation to the United States, excluding U.S. import duties, freight, insurance, and other charges incurred in bringing the merchandise to the United States.

The term "price actually paid or payable" means the total payment (whether direct or indirect, and exclusive of any costs, charges, or expenses incurred for transportation, insurance, and related services incident to the international shipment of the merchandise from the country of exportation to the place of importation in the United States) made, or to be made, for imported merchandise by the buyer to, or for the benefit, of the seller.

In the case of transactions between related parties, the relationship between buyer and seller should not influence the Customs value.

Customs Value


Release Date of release Time of releaseISM Manufacturing Index 11/1/2016 10:00 a.m.International trade (Full report), Employment situation 11/4/2016 8:30 a.m.Wholesale trade 11/9/2016 10:00 a.m.Retail sales + inventories, Import and export prices 11/15/2016 10:00 a.m.Housing starts (C30), Consumer Price Index 11/17/2016 8:30 a.m.Advance durable manufacturing, New-home sales 11/23/2016 8:30 a.m.Personal income and outlays 11/30/2016 8:30 a.m.ISM Manufacturing Index 12/1/2016 10:00 a.m.International trade (Full report), M3 Manufacturing (Full report) 12/6/2016 10:00 a.m.Wholesale trade 12/9/2016 10:00 a.m.

Retail sales + inventories, Industrial production and capacity utilization 12/14/2016 10:00 a.m.Housing starts (C30) 12/16/2016 8:30 a.m.Personal income and outlays, Advance durable manufacturing 12/22/2016 10:00 a.m.ISM Manufacturing Index, Construction spending 1/3/2017 10:00 a.m.

International trade (Full report), Employment situation, M3 Manufacturing (Full report) 1/6/2017 10:00 a.m.Wholesale trade 1/10/2017 10:00 a.m.Retail sales + inventories 1/13/2017 10:00 a.m.Housing starts (C30) 1/19/2017 8:30 a.m.Personal income and outlays 1/30/2017 8:30 a.m.ISM Manufacturing Index, Construction spending 2/1/2017 10:00 a.m.International trade (Full report) 2/7/2017 8:30 a.m.Wholesale trade 2/9/2017 10:00 a.m.

Schedule of Releases

early january 2017 monthly economic indicators and industry trends

Marketing