development of a decision support system of public ...hicec/coe/coe/ppt/seminar43-2.pdf3 j. zhang,...

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Development of a Decision Support System of Public Policies for Sustainable Cities

Junyi Zhang

Transportation Engineering Laboratory (HiTEL), IDEC, Hiroshima University

The 43th COE Seminar, IDEC, Hiroshima University, Dec., 21, 2007

A Transportation Perspective

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Background and motivationBackground and motivation

Common transportation Issues in both developed and developing countries

Traffic congestion

Air pollution

Traffic accident

Energy consumption

Transportation efficiency: energy consumption and economic activities

Accessibility

Health issues: due to overuse of car and air pollution

Traffic noise and vibration, …

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Background and motivationBackground and motivation

Transportation issues specific to developing countriesLack of transportation infrastructures, low quality infrastructures

Rapid economic growth and slow supply of infrastructures

Lack of land use-transportation integration

High ownership of ill-equipped vehicles

Operation of special transport vehicles (Jeepney, Tricycle, Tuktuk, Soibike, Pedicab, Rickshow, Diliman) and employment issues

Poverty and transportation inequity: accessibility and environmental inequity

Lack of governance, esp., funding/institutional problems: Shortage of funds, limited borrowing capacity, organizational deficiency, shortage of manpower, lack of expertise and technology, and lack of (well-established) supportive laws/rules

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Necessity of a Decision Support System Necessity of a Decision Support System (DSS)(DSS)

Database management systeminput process output outcome impact

Library of potential modelsto forecast the possible outcomes of decisions as well as external factors

Interface of systemto aid the interaction of policy makers with the system and to assist in analysis of outcomes

computer-based or non-computer-based

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ScaleScale

International

Community

Point & Line

City

Region

Nation

Short-termMid-termLong-termTime

Space

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ScopeScope

Transportation

Firm activities

Household activities

Stationery sources

Mobile sources

Freight transport Passenger transport

Public transport

Private transport

Truck transport

Massivetransport

Information & Communication

Technology

Daily travel Non-daily travel

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GoalGoal

Environmental

Sustainability

Social

SustainabilityEconomic

Sustainability

Environmental

Sustainability

Social

Sustainability

Economic

Sustainability

Unbalanced

Balanced

DSS should addresses these issues.

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FactsFacts

The column width is proportional to population

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Library of Potential Models: StructureLibrary of Potential Models: Structure

Current & Previous States

Evaluation of goal achievement

Sustainable States

To set the goals

Process of Change

Acceptance of policiesModification of behaviors

Top-down approach

Bottom-up approach

Evaluation of current and future states

Acceptance of the achieved goals

Exploring the changes of behaviors under policies

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Library of Potential Models: GoalsLibrary of Potential Models: Goals

Sustainable StatesTop-down approach

Constraints

Economy: Maximal accessibility & mobility

Environment: Minimal emissions

Society: Maximal equity in accessibility & mobility

Civil minimum in accessibility & mobility

Environmental standards and frontier

Technologies & institutions,…

(under uncertainty)

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Sustainable StatesTop-down approach

Challenges: to quantify the values in urban planning

Substantial values- Planning

• Traditional values: safety, economic growth, …

• Contemporary values: quality of life, quality of space, mobility, sustainability, culture/history, beauty, security, vitality, efficiency, …

Procedural values- Implementation

• Fairness

• Equity

• Self-supporting or independence, …

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Top-down approach

Bi-Level Optimization Model ofEnvironmentally Efficient Car Ownership (Feng Tao)

Env. Capacity

Data

Env. Load

Road NetworkRoad Network

OD Trip MatrixOD Trip Matrix

Car Ownership(update)

Car Ownership(update)

EnvironmentalControl MeasuresEnvironmental

Control Measures

Pollutant Concentration(zone level)

Pollutant Concentration(zone level)

Total Emission/ Fuel Consumption (zone level)

Total Emission/ Fuel Consumption (zone level)

Traffic Assignment/Distribution Model

Traffic Assignment/Distribution Model

Mobility MaximumTrip Maximum and Equity

Mobility MaximumTrip Maximum and Equity

Upper Level

Lower Level

EnvironmentalCapacity (zone level)

EnvironmentalCapacity (zone level)

Standard of Atmosphere Quality

Standard of Atmosphere Quality

Modal Split ModelModal Split Model

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Top-down approach

Space of Production

O

A

Private Transport

Efficiency Frontier Frontier of

COD Cities

Frontier ofTOD Cities

TOD developed cityCOD developed cityDeveloping cities

Public Transport

Efficiency Analysis of Transport Sector (Daisuke Yoshino)

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Top-down approach Backcasting

Mapping

• Behavior & attitude: Household, individual and firm

• Transportation system performance

• Governance level…

Policy measures

• Long-term: e.g., land use• Mid-term: e.g., vehicle

ownership• Short-term: e.g.,

modification of daily behavior

Target

• Economic sustainability

• Environmental sustainability

• Social sustainability

Future

Present

Sustainable level

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Top-down approach

Backcasting of Environmentally Sustainable Transport System (Feng Xuesong)

Spatial distribution of population,employment, motor-vehicle, etc;Trip generation & attraction ofeach TAZ;Trip distribution;Travel mode split;Trip assignment on the networks;Traffic emission (CO);Others.

COEmission

TrafficSituation

Application of theProposed Integrated Model

Urban forms changes;Urban development, e.g. theincrease of household, motor-vehicle, etc, control;Public transport systemsamelioration;Transport networksimprovements;Others.

Actuality Mapping Policy Measures Target

Envirnmental Efficiency (EE)

0

20000000

40000000

60000000

80000000

100000000

120000000

140000000

2020 2030 2040 2050

S2 S3 S4 S5 S6 S7 S8TimeStarting

Point

CO(Sustainability)

(Unsustainable)

Alternatives

The FinalOne

EE &Traffic

Situation

(Sustainable)

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Sustainable States

Bottom-up approach


How to solve various conflicts?

Group Decision

Ecocentrism: concern for the well-being of all people, animals, and plants

Homocentrism: concern for the well-being of all people

Egocentrism: concern for one’s own well-being

Government

Firms

Civil society

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Library of Potential Models: ProcessLibrary of Potential Models: Process

Random Utility Theory: Individuals & Households

Process of Change

(McFadden, 2001)

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Travel behavior decision-making (Waddell, 2000)

Process of ChangeIndividuals & Households

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Process of Change

(David Simmonds Consultancy and Marcial Echenique and Partners (1999))

Firm

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Acceptance of sustainable policies

Values BeliefsPro-sustainable personal norms Behavior

Altruistic

Egoistic

Awareness of consequences

Ascription of responsibility

Sense of obligation to take pro-sustainable action

Activism

Non-activist behavior in public sphere (e.g., acceptability of policies)

Private-sphere behavior

Organizational behavior

Worldview

Value-Belief-Norm (VBN) Theory

Ecocentrism: concern for the well-being of all people, animals, and plants

Homocentrism: concern for the well-being of all people

Egocentrism: concern for one’s own well-being

Process of Change

Individuals & Households

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Acceptance of sustainable policies

Process of Change

Firm

(Jasch, 2000)

R & D and Design

Procurement and Production

Sales and Distribution

Services

Product Usage

Operational Process

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Process of Change Road pricing research (Wang Zhuo)

Road Pricing

Toll Road Congestion Pricing

Distance-Based Pricing

Cordon Pricing

Value Pricing

Income

Expectation of Others’ Car

Use Reduction

Intention of Car Use

Reduction

Fairness

Infringement on Freedom

Acceptance of Road Pricing

Car-Dependent Behavior

Long-term

Mid-term

Short-term

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Sustainable urban form of Jakarta city based on SP approach (Metin Senbil)

TOD: Transit Oriented Development(9~18km from city center)

MS: Modern Suburbs(19 ~ 30 km from city center)

CC: Compact City(3 ~ 8 km from city center)

500 meter

tempat belanja dapur

Bus

fast min,high rupiahs, 0 transfers

Rumah

Pilihan Transport ke Tempat Kerja, Waktu Tempuh dan Biaya (Ongkos) Perjalanan

1 km

tempat belanja & restoran

stasiun kereta dalam kota

taman

110 menit, Rp. 15000

tempat tunggu bus

2 km

Kereta

125 menit, Rp. 5500, tidak ganti bus

100 menit, Rp. 3400

Bus

Mobil Pribadi

Alternatif A: Lingkungan Tinggal Berjarak antara 9 sampai 18 km ke Tempat Kerja di Jakarta Pusat

Tempat Bekerja

stasiun kereta dalam kota

1 km

2 km taman

tempat tunggu bus



35 menit, Rp. 11000

45 menit, Rp. 2200, 1 kali ganti bus

Rumah

500

meter

Tempat Bekerja

40 menit, Rp. 2000

Alternatif B:Lingkungan Tinggal Berjarak antara 3 sampai 8 km ke Tempat Kerja di Jakarta Pusat


Mobil Pribadi

Bus

Kereta

5 meter


2 km

taman

stasiun kereta yang menuju kota


3 km

135 menit, Rp. 5200, tidak ganti bus

85 menit, Rp. 5700

500 meter

tempat tunggu bus

Rumah

115 menit, Rp. 32000

Mobil Pribadi

Bus

Kereta

Alternatif C:Lingkungan Tinggal Berjarak antara 19 sampai 30 km ke Tempat Kerja di Jakarta Pusat


Tempat Bekerja

7

8

9

7

8

9

4

5

6

4

5

6

1

2

3

1

2

3

Process of Change

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-1.00

-0.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 S6

% C

hang

e of

Cho

ice

Prob

abili

t

A1 A2 A3 A4 A5 A6 A7 A8 A9

<S1>Distance to bus stopdecreased 25% in TOC

<S2>Distance to bus stopdecreased 25% in bothTOD and CC

<S3>Distance to rail stationdecerased 25% in TOD

<S4>Distance to rail stationdecerased 25% in bothTOD and CC

<S5>Distance to bus stop andto department storedecreased 25% in TOD

<S6>Distance to bus stop anddepartment store decreased25% in both TOD and CC

A9: MS_Rail

A8: MS_Bus

A7: MS_Car

A6: CC_Rail

A5: CC_Bus

A4: CC_Car

A3: TOD_Rail

A2: TOD_Bus

A1: TOD_Car

A9: MS_Rail

A8: MS_Bus

A7: MS_Car

A6: CC_Rail

A5: CC_Bus

A4: CC_Car

A3: TOD_Rail

A2: TOD_Bus

A1: TOD_Car

Process of Change

Evaluation based on Mixed Logit Model

Sustainable urban form of Jakarta city based on SP approach (Metin Senbil)

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Sustainable travel mode choice in Yangon and Hanoi city based on SP approach

Insein Township

Downtown

Pop; 200,000Pop; 200,000

23 23 kmkm

Insein Township

Downtown

Insein Township

Downtown

Pop; 200,000Pop; 200,000

23 23 kmkm

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1

400

799

1198

1597

1996

2395

2794

3193

3592

3991

4390

4789

5188

5587

5986

6385

6784

7183

Income (×103

Kyats)

Cho

ice

prob

abili

t

Bus

Rail

Car

New transit system

(362,12)

New Transit System

Process of Change

Evaluation based on SP & RP Combined Model

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Evaluation of Sustainable Urban Form in Jakarta City (Feng Xuesong)

CCDCompact City Development

TODTransit-Oriented Development

PCDPoly-Center Development

Construction of Major Roads BAU“Soft” Policies

Control of Motorcycle Ownership

Improvement of Transit Systems

Process of Change

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Evaluation of Sustainable Urban Form in Beijing City (Feng Xuesong)

CCDCompact City Development

TODTransit-Oriented Development

PCDPoly-Center Development

Construction of Major Roads BAU“Soft” Policies

Control of CarOwnership

Improvement of Transit Systems

Process of Change

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Library of Potential Models: StatesLibrary of Potential Models: States


y3 = h (Trip distribution, inter-zonal level-of-service)

y2 = g (Trip generation and attraction, inter-zonal travel utility）

y4 = i (Car traffic volume, link capacity, link free speed)

Trip generation and attraction

Trip distribution

Distribution of residence and.employment, transportation network

y1 = f (Population, car ownership, employment，travel pattern）

Link traffic volume and speed

Car traffic volume

Land use model

EnvironmentalIntensity

Trip generation and attraction model

Trip distribution model

Modal split model

Traffic assignment model

Travel accessibility

Travel level-of-service

Travel utility

Car ownership model

Emission productionEnergy consumption

Urban formpreference model

Population and economic synthesizersPopulation and economic synthesizers

Integrated modeling

Integrated Transportation Model with Feedback and Spatial Interaction(Feng Xuesong)

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EXOGENEOUS(POLICIES)

ENDOGENEOUSEXOGENEOUS

LOCATION MODELS

CALIBRATION

FORECASTING

FOUR STEPS MODEL

URBAN LAND ALLOCATION

MODEL

URBAN LOCATION MODEL

ACCESSIBILITY

Trip Generation

Trip Distribution

Network Assignmenmt

Travel Costs

Vehicular Fuel UseEmissions Production

and Dispersion

Transportation Control Measures

Fuel & Other Pricing/Tax Policies

Network Capacities

Modal Services

Vehicle Occupancies

Vehicle Ownership

population and economic activity

time=t


time=t-1


time=t+1


time=t+2


time=t-2

RESIDENTIAL LOCATION

EMPLOYMENT LOCATION

Land Use Policies

estimation

Current & Previous StatesIntegrated Land Use and Transportation Model(Metin Senbil)

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Urban Urban ModelModel

Environmental Simulation Model

(Asian Environment

Simulator: AES)

EvaluationEvaluationModelModel

SCEM Indicators Policy Package

SCEM Indicators

QOL IndicatorsAir Quality Indicators

Land Use Model

Eco-System ModelAir Pollution Diffusion

Model

Transportation Model

EcosystemIndicators

Improvem

ent of SC

EM

based on feedback

Socio-Economic Model

Impact Assessment Model

Environmental Emission Model

Policy-m

aking base

d on feedback

Current & Previous States Integrated Urban Modeling

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S.B Nugroho’senvironmental emission study

Other Policy Studies on

Transportation

Other Policy Studies on

Transportation

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Library of Potential Models: EvaluationLibrary of Potential Models: Evaluation

Policy Evaluation


Evaluation of goal achievement

Sustainable States

To set the goals

Process of Change

Acceptance of policiesModification of behaviors

Evaluation of current and future states


Exploring the changes of behaviors under policies

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Impacts on human, economy and ecosystem

Urban Air Quality

Increase of environmental loads from car traffic

>Population>Economy>Life style>Distance

traveled of car Impact

Pressures

State

DrivingForces

Responses

Law,

Institutio

nLaw

, In

stitutio

n

Econom

ic m

easuresE

conomic

measures

Technology

Technology

enlightenmentenlightenment

Policies to control generation

e.g., re-construct social system

Policies to reduce env. loadse.g., Law, institution (Government)

Compliance and PI （Citizen）Tech. Dev., PI （Firm）

Policies to absorb pollutionse.g., Green space （Government）

Voluntary plantation （Citizen）

Concerns about environmental issues

Cap. BuildingCap. BuildingCap. InfluenceCap. Influence

Capacity

Citizen Firm

Gov.

DPSIRDPSIRDPSIRDPSIR+CDPSIRDPSIR++CC

Impacts on human, economy and ecosystem

Urban Air Quality

Increase of environmental loads from car traffic

>Population>Economy>Life style>Distance

traveled of car Impact

Pressures

State

DrivingForces

Responses

Law,

Institutio

nLaw

, In

stitutio

n

Econom

ic m

easuresE

conomic

measures

Technology

Technology

Law,

Institutio

nLaw

, In

stitutio

n

Econom

ic m

easuresE

conomic

measures

Technology

Technology

enlightenmentenlightenment

Policies to control generation

e.g., re-construct social system

Policies to reduce env. loadse.g., Law, institution (Government)

Compliance and PI （Citizen）Tech. Dev., PI （Firm）

Policies to absorb pollutionse.g., Green space （Government）

Voluntary plantation （Citizen）

Concerns about environmental issues

Cap. BuildingCap. BuildingCap. InfluenceCap. Influence

Capacity

Citizen Firm

Gov.

DPSIRDPSIRDPSIRDPSIR+CDPSIRDPSIR++CC

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Linear programming (PM)Multi-objective LP (PM)Interactive methods (PM)

Continuous

Discrete

Permutation method (OM)Expected value approach (VA)Fuzzy evaluation methods (OM)Regime method (OM)Evamix method (OM)

Qualitative/mixed

Quantitative

Cost-benefit analysisCost-effective analysis

Prices

Priorities

Value functionUtility function

Functions

LinearELECTRE family (OM)PROMETHEE (OM)Analytic hierarchic process (VA)Weighted summation (VA)Reference point method (VA)

Alternatives

Type ofInformation

Decision Rule

Standardization

PM: programming methodOM: Outranking methodVA: value approach

Multi-Criteria Evaluation

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CVM (Contingent Valuation Method): Fuzzy CVM(for non-market goods such as amenity) Fujiwara, Zhang and Kuwano

Mean WTPMean WTPAn amount when the confidence level of WTP (WNTP) is An amount when the confidence level of WTP (WNTP) is

equal to zeroequal to zero

0

+5

-5

Con

fiden

ce levelC

onfid

ence level

WTPWTP

100 300 500 700 900 Bid amount (Bid amount (¥¥))

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Database Management System: DataDatabase Management System: Data

International

Community

Point & Line

City

Region

Nation


Space

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Database Management SystemDatabase Management System

Existing data sources: Macro-data at city level

Millennium Cities Database: 100 world cities

51 countries and 100 cities

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Millennium Cities Database: Contents

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Existing data sources: City level

Panel Data of 46 World Cities: 1960, 70, 80 & 90

US cities Australia cities

Canadian cities

European cities

Wealthy Asian cities

Developing Asian cities

Boston Chicago Detroit Denver Houston Los Angeles New York Phoenix Portland Sacramento San Diego San Francisco Washington

Adelaide Brisbane Canberra Melbourne Perth Sydney

Calgary Edmonton Montreal Ottawa Toronto Vancouver Winnipeg

Amsterdam Brussels Copenhagen Frankfurt Hamburg Landon Munich Paris Stockholm Vienna Zurich

Hong Kong Singapore Tokyo

Bangkok Jakarta Kuala Lumpur Manila Seoul Surabaya

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Existing data sources: Individual/Household levelPerson-trip data (18 cities): Integrated urban model, data mining studies, missing data analysis1. Tripoli, Lebanon;2. Damascus, Syria;3. Manila, Philippines;4. Beijing, Dalian, Chengdu, China;5. Managua, Nicaragua;6. Belem, Brazil;7. Bucharest, Romania;8. Cairo, Egypt;9. Jakarta, Indonesia;10. Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia;11. Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam;12. Naoribi, Kenya;13. Lima, Peru;14. Dhaka, Bangladesh15. Hiroshima, Japan

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New data sources: Individual level

Jakarta SP (stated preference) data of sustainable urban form• Residential choice and commuting mode choice

Attitudinal survey for DPSIR+C analysis• Government sectors and citizens in Beijing city

• Government sectors, firms, and citizens in Jakarta city

• Government sectors, firms, and citizens in Hanoi city

…….

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Database Management System: PoliciesDatabase Management System: Policies

International

Community

Point & Line

City

Region

Nation


Space

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Interface of Decision Support SystemInterface of Decision Support System

Computer-based Non-computer-based

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DiscussionDiscussion

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Research Issues about ChinaResearch Issues about China

Wen-Yuan Niu and William M. Harris (1996) China: The Forecast of its Environmental Situation in the 21st Century, Journal of Environmental Management, 47, 101–114.

Division of Environment and Sustainable Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

Department of Urban and Environmental Planning, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, U.S.A.

SourcesChina Statistical Yearbook (1992/3)

World Bank (1992a,b)

Asian Development Bank (1992)

Boxer (1989); Liu (1987); Niu (1990); Smil (1984)

Chinese Academy of Sciences (1992a,b)

Silk and Ross (1990)

World Resources Institute (1990–1994)

World Bank (1990–1994)

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Discussion: Research of China IssuesDiscussion: Research of China Issues

0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00

GNP per capitaAnnual av. rate of increase

Total energy demandNet growth rate

NumberWorking age (19–59)

Aged persons (60+)Biomass

GrainCultivated land area

ForestGrazing land

Meat and poultryEnergy consumption per unit GNP

Waste gasWaste water

Waste residueCO2SO2

CFCsSoil erosion

Forest coverDesertificationUrbanization

Water resourcesWater consumption, industrial

Eco

nom

icP

opul

atio

nR

esou

rces

per

capi

taT

ecE

mis

sion

sO

ther

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030China IssuesChina Issues

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Environmental Issues in China investigated by World Bank http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/EASTASIAPACIFICEXT/EXTEAPREGTOPENVIRONMENT/0,,contentMDK:20266322~menuPK:537827~pagePK:34004173~piPK:34003707~theSitePK:502886,00.html (Access on Dec. 15, 2007)

SummaryChina’s rapid growth is now a driving force in the global economy and is achieving unprecedented rates of poverty reduction. However, growth is also seriously damaging the natural resource base and generating major environmental liabilities.

The country’s environmental problems include land degradation, deteriorating water quality and water scarcity, severe air pollution and declining natural forest cover.

These problems threaten the health and prospects of current and future generations and are undermining the sustainability of long-term growth.

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Urban EnvironmentDemographic trends in China indicate that; i) the urban population of about 430 million (2001) will reach 850 million by 2015, and ii) the number of cities with over 100,000 people will increase from 630 (2001) to over 1,000 (2015).Government measures to address pollution, including industrial water and air pollution (mainly from state-owned enterprises), have achieved significant results. However, problems remain with the implementation and enforcement of environmental regulations, and the balance between reducing emissions and increasing production has not yet been satisfactorily achieved.China’s urban population has grown in cities of all sizes. However, townships of between 5,000 and 10,000 people are witnessing the fastest growth. While some aspects of the urban environment haveimproved in China’s mega and large cities, environmental management in the expanding towns and townships remains a major challenge. Pollution in these smaller urban settings is not well monitored and their development plans contain only limited provisions to address it.

http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/EASTASIAPACIFICEXT/EXTEAPREGTOPENVIRONMENT/0,,contentMDK:20266322~menuPK:537827~pagePK:34004173~piPK:34003707~theSitePK:502886,00.html (Access on Dec. 15, 2007)

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Urban Environment

The World Bank has been and is providing substantial assistance to address these challenges.

Projects (e.g. in Tianjin, Shanghai, Zhejiang, and Chongqing) are supporting the construction of sewerage and drainage systems, wastewater treatment plants and solid waste management facilitates.

The World Bank is also providing analytical and advisory assistance help China value urban environmental health risks, understand environment/poverty linkages, and implement Water Pollution Control measures.


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Energy, Air Pollution and Green House Gases (GHG)

China is the World’s 3rd largest consumer of coal and oil, but much of its energy producing and using equipment is both inefficient and highly polluting. As a result, China experiences severe urban air pollution that has a significant impact throughout the region.

It is also the World’s second-largest source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

Improving energy efficiency and accelerating the development andapplication of new and renewable energy and clean coal technologies are therefore very urgent sustainable development and environmental priorities.


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Energy, Air Pollution and Green House Gases (GHG)

The World Bank is China’s most important international partner in the effort to reduce energy-related air pollution and emissions. The World Bank has supported several key strategic analyses, including a clean-coal options review and deployment strategy, a renewable energy promotion plan and an analysis of China’s potential in the Clean Development Mechanism.

The World Bank is currently implementing a multi-billion US$ energy modernization program to support clean-coal power production and utilization technology transfer, a major energy efficiency improvement program and, more recently, a national renewable energy development program. Bank assistance is likely to continue and evolve in all these three areas.


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Natural Resource ManagementLand degradation is widespread and increasing. China has huge tracts of rapidly degrading grasslands, some of the worst water erosion problems and the highest ratio of actual to potential desertified land in the world.Thanks to large investments in tree plantation and shelterbelt development and a natural forest logging ban, China has successfully turned the tide of formerly rapid deforestation. However, the country’s natural forests had been in a continuous decline for over 50 years and the return of many forest ecosystems to a sustainable condition is still a long way off. Despite the establishment of a national system of nature reserves, the stresses on them have put the country's unique and globally significant biodiversity under serious pressure. Water availability and quality continues to be a critical problem, particularly in northern China, and the situation is likely to deteriorate over the next decade, especially in the rivers north of the Yangtze. In order to equitably resolve the conflicting claims for water and other natural resources there is a need for both technical progress and improvements in institutional, administrative and regulatory arrangements.


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Natural Resource Management

The World Bank is helping China respond to all four of these challenges with technical and project assistance. The bank has a large landdegradation-oriented project portfolio, which focuses on the fragile and severely degraded western region. It includes innovative land degradation projects such as Loess Plateau and Gansu/Xingiang Pastoral Development.

We are providing state-of-the-art forest management advice and investment assistance through vehicles such as the Sustainable Forest Development Project. Linked to it is a large-scale GEF-supported nature reserves management improvement program.

Water scarcity and water quality problems are being addressed through projects in the western region’s Tarim Basin and in the Hai Basin area of the agriculturally-vital North China Plain.


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Ozone Depletion & Persistant Organic Pollutants (POPs)

China is the developing World’s largest producer of Ozone Depleting Substances (ODS).

Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) are toxic chemicals that become more concentrated along the food chain and pose a global health problem. China ratified the Stockholm Convention on POPs in 2004 and has actively implemented activities to meet the Convention requirements.


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J. Zhang, 2007


Ozone Depletion & Persistant Organic Pollutants (POPs) World Bank has been collaborating since 1993 on the world's largest Montreal Protocol (MP)- funded ODS phase-out program. With this help, China has phased out about 112, 000 Ozone Depletion Potential (ODP) tons in the production and consumption sectors through four World Bank facilitated projects. Of the 88 sub-projects funded under the ODS III Project, 70 subprojects have been completed, and the remaining 18 will be completed in 2005. Under the ODS IV Project, six sector plans are under implementation and an accelerated phase-out plan was approved in December 2004. Total MP commitments under ODS IV now equal $ 355 million. In 2005, emphasis will be on the development of two new sector plans -- a second stage phase-out plan of the CTC/process agents sector and a sector plan for the pharmaceutical aerosol sector. With completion of these two sector plans and through the accelerated phase-out plan, the Bank will help China to completely phase-out production and consumption of ODS by mid-2007.In response to a government request, and with GEF co-financing assistance, the Bank is helping China prepare POPs demonstration projects on the management and disposal of PCBs and the use of non-POPs alternatives for termite control. With Canadian and Italian government help, the Bank is also facilitating studies on POPs toxicity and termite control, PCB management training, and a PCB inventory methodology and PCB management strategy.


development of a decision support system of public ...hicec/coe/coe/ppt/seminar43-2.pdf3 j. zhang,...

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