crime and prevention trends 2006

National Crime Prevention Council 2006National Crime Prevention Council 2006

Crime and Prevention Trends Crime and Prevention Trends 20062006

22National Crime Prevention Council 2005National Crime Prevention Council 2005

ObjectivesObjectives

Consider current trends in crime and Consider current trends in crime and prevention prevention

Explore five major, emerging trends and Explore five major, emerging trends and challenges over the next 20 years challenges over the next 20 years

Examine ways to meet these challengesExamine ways to meet these challenges How to use crime prevention as a strong How to use crime prevention as a strong

foundationfoundation Ways to move forwardWays to move forward


Why Pay Attention to Trends?Why Pay Attention to Trends?

They change our lives.They change our lives.

– In 1986, how would you have called for In 1986, how would you have called for emergency road service? Today?emergency road service? Today?

– In 1986, how could you get cash out of your bank In 1986, how could you get cash out of your bank in a strange city at 1:00 a.m? Today?in a strange city at 1:00 a.m? Today?

– In 1986, how big was a high-quality personal In 1986, how big was a high-quality personal music player? Today? music player? Today?

– In 1986, how bulky were televisions? Today?In 1986, how bulky were televisions? Today?


Crime Prevention ImplicationsCrime Prevention Implications

Look at some crime prevention implications:Look at some crime prevention implications:– Cell phones: Quick calls right from the car to road service Cell phones: Quick calls right from the car to road service

or to 9ll, but small and easy to forget/stealor to 9ll, but small and easy to forget/steal

– ATM: Would-be robbers know what you’re probably ATM: Would-be robbers know what you’re probably doing when you walk up to onedoing when you walk up to one

– Lightweight TVS: Convenient to move around house; Lightweight TVS: Convenient to move around house; easier for burglars to take; more attractive to use or fenceeasier for burglars to take; more attractive to use or fence

– Tiny, top quality-sound I-pods are convenient to carry, but Tiny, top quality-sound I-pods are convenient to carry, but easy to steal or lose. They are also attractive for crooks to easy to steal or lose. They are also attractive for crooks to resell. resell.


Other Recent TrendsOther Recent Trends

On-line banking, bill-paying lead to phishing and On-line banking, bill-paying lead to phishing and spoofing (cyber fraud attempts by crooks)spoofing (cyber fraud attempts by crooks)

Cyberbullying emerges as a serious crime; Cyberbullying emerges as a serious crime; solutions still under developmentsolutions still under development

Identity theft zooms to major national issue; Identity theft zooms to major national issue; numerous prevention strategies emergenumerous prevention strategies emerge

Local terrorism prevention emerges as added Local terrorism prevention emerges as added crime prevention responsibilitycrime prevention responsibility


Understanding Crime Trends Understanding Crime Trends Helps Us…Helps Us…

Anticipate prevention needs in current and Anticipate prevention needs in current and new contexts and prepare for themnew contexts and prepare for them

Learn from the past about how to identify and Learn from the past about how to identify and implement future prevention strategiesimplement future prevention strategies

Reap the benefits of crime prevention Reap the benefits of crime prevention Serve as effective advocates for crime Serve as effective advocates for crime

prevention prevention


Where Are We Now? Where Are We Now? Geography no longer governs community. The physical Geography no longer governs community. The physical

neighborhood around one’s residence is only part of neighborhood around one’s residence is only part of community. community.

People now operate in many different communities that People now operate in many different communities that overlap only slightly if at all. Here are just some of these overlap only slightly if at all. Here are just some of these communities.communities.

WorkWork HomeHome Extended familyExtended family ShoppingShopping RecreationRecreation FaithFaith Professional associationsProfessional associations Special interests (hobbies, civic, fraternal, etc.)Special interests (hobbies, civic, fraternal, etc.)


Crime Trends andCrime Trends andHow We Count CrimeHow We Count Crime

Counting crime helps us track our progress. At the Counting crime helps us track our progress. At the national level, there are currently two systems. national level, there are currently two systems.

National Crime Victimization SurveyNational Crime Victimization Survey by the Bureau by the Bureau of Justice Statistics uses a national survey to count of Justice Statistics uses a national survey to count what happened, whether reported to police or not. what happened, whether reported to police or not.

FBI Uniform Crime ReportsFBI Uniform Crime Reports count what has been count what has been reported to the police. It does not gather details about reported to the police. It does not gather details about victim characteristics (except for homicide victims). victim characteristics (except for homicide victims).


Crime Trends andCrime Trends andHow We Count Crime (cont.)How We Count Crime (cont.)

Two emerging systems will lead to more detailed Two emerging systems will lead to more detailed and localized data:and localized data:

FBI FBI National Incident-Based Reporting SystemNational Incident-Based Reporting System provides provides key information about the victim and circumstances in key information about the victim and circumstances in reported crime. At least 12 states now report this way; reported crime. At least 12 states now report this way; more are switching from Uniform Crime Reports system.more are switching from Uniform Crime Reports system.Local Crime Victimization SurveysLocal Crime Victimization Surveys are now possible are now possible through use of off-the-shelf software from the National through use of off-the-shelf software from the National Institute of Justice and the Bureau of Justice Statistics.Institute of Justice and the Bureau of Justice Statistics.


Current Crime TrendsCurrent Crime Trends

In 2005, U.S. residents (12 years and older) In 2005, U.S. residents (12 years and older) experienced 23 million violent and property experienced 23 million violent and property crimes -- an estimated 18 million property crimes -- an estimated 18 million property crimes (burglary, motor vehicle theft, and crimes (burglary, motor vehicle theft, and theft) and 5.2 million violent crimes (rape, theft) and 5.2 million violent crimes (rape, robbery, aggravated and simple assault, and robbery, aggravated and simple assault, and homicide).homicide).


Current Crime Trends (cont.)Current Crime Trends (cont.)

■■ Personal and household victimizations are at Personal and household victimizations are at 30-year lows, according to 2005 National 30-year lows, according to 2005 National Crime Victimization Survey data.Crime Victimization Survey data.

Source - BJS - National Crime Victimization Survey (Criminal Victimization, 2005)Source - BJS - National Crime Victimization Survey (Criminal Victimization, 2005)

■■ FBI Uniform Crime Report data for 2005 FBI Uniform Crime Report data for 2005 show a 2.3 percent increase in reported show a 2.3 percent increase in reported violent crime compared with 2004. Property violent crime compared with 2004. Property crimes decreased by 1.5 percent in the same crimes decreased by 1.5 percent in the same period.period.

Source: Federal Bureau of Investigation 2006Source: Federal Bureau of Investigation 2006


Current Crime Trends (cont.)Current Crime Trends (cont.)

In 2005, 47 percent of violent crimes and 40 In 2005, 47 percent of violent crimes and 40 percent of property crimes were reported to percent of property crimes were reported to police, a substantial increase from the 35 police, a substantial increase from the 35 percent to 40 percent reporting levels in the percent to 40 percent reporting levels in the late 1970s. late 1970s. Source – BJS, National Crime Victimization Survey (Source – BJS, National Crime Victimization Survey (Criminal Victimization 2005)Criminal Victimization 2005)


Current Crime and Prevention Current Crime and Prevention IssuesIssues

Methamphetamine, identity theft, fraud against Methamphetamine, identity theft, fraud against seniors, gangs, and homeland security are among the seniors, gangs, and homeland security are among the hot issues nationwide.hot issues nationwide.

Many residents feel that serious crime occurs only in Many residents feel that serious crime occurs only in isolated areas within their communities.isolated areas within their communities.

Computers as tools of personal and economic crime Computers as tools of personal and economic crime are a well-established fact. are a well-established fact.

Information brokering is a new criminal activity.Information brokering is a new criminal activity.


Current Crime Prevention Current Crime Prevention Issues (cont.)Issues (cont.)

Emphasis on fact-based, research-based Emphasis on fact-based, research-based programming is becoming a standard. Yet programming is becoming a standard. Yet many crime prevention programs do not have many crime prevention programs do not have a formal research base – just testing through a formal research base – just testing through experience. experience.

Pressure to demonstrate program outcomes – Pressure to demonstrate program outcomes – not how much was done but what has changed not how much was done but what has changed because of it – is increasingly prevalent at because of it – is increasingly prevalent at national, state, and local levels. national, state, and local levels.


Current Crime Prevention Current Crime Prevention Issues (cont.)Issues (cont.)

Federal and state shifting of financial burdens to Federal and state shifting of financial burdens to localities have reduce crime prevention resources at localities have reduce crime prevention resources at the same time our population is growing and the same time our population is growing and becoming more diverse, new crime issues are becoming more diverse, new crime issues are emerging, and signs suggest crime rates are trying to emerging, and signs suggest crime rates are trying to edge up.edge up.

New tools to help crime prevention (crime mapping, New tools to help crime prevention (crime mapping, crime analysis, email, web, etc.) have become crime analysis, email, web, etc.) have become available, though they are underused. These tools available, though they are underused. These tools have the potential to help local and regional have the potential to help local and regional governments and communities more quickly identify governments and communities more quickly identify and address emerging crime problems. and address emerging crime problems.


What Is the Outlook for the What Is the Outlook for the Future?Future?

Five major predictionsFive major predictions– The United States is significantly more diverse.The United States is significantly more diverse.– Communications technology is evolving Communications technology is evolving

dramatically.dramatically.– Data technology is expanding dramatically. Data technology is expanding dramatically. – People live longer, are more active longer.People live longer, are more active longer.– The need to educate each new wave of children, The need to educate each new wave of children,

adolescents, and adults continues.adolescents, and adults continues.


U.S. Demographics and DiversityU.S. Demographics and DiversityPredictionsPredictions

The United States is becoming more diverse – The United States is becoming more diverse – racially, linguistically, culturally, ethnically. racially, linguistically, culturally, ethnically.

Estimates are that by 2050, people of color Estimates are that by 2050, people of color (predominantly African Americans and (predominantly African Americans and Hispanics/Latinos) will comprise nearly a Hispanics/Latinos) will comprise nearly a majority of the U.S. population. majority of the U.S. population.


Projected Population of the United States, by Race and Hispanic Origin: 2010

to 20502010 2030 2050

% of TOTALTOTAL 100.0 100.0 100.0White alone 79.3 75.8 72.1Black alone 13.1 13.9 14.6Asian alone 4.6 6.2 8.0All other races 3.0 4.1 5.3Hispanic 15.5 20.1 24.4(of any race) White alone 65.1 57.5 50.1(not Hispanic)

* Includes American Indian and Alaska Native alone, Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone, and Two or More Races

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2004, "U.S. Interim Projections by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin,“ <www.census.gov/ipc/www/usinterimproj/>


U.S. Demographics and U.S. Demographics and Diversity ChallengesDiversity Challenges

We will have more diverse languages, We will have more diverse languages, cultures, norms, issues of personal and group cultures, norms, issues of personal and group behaviors, and ideas of lawful behavior and behaviors, and ideas of lawful behavior and activity.activity.

Laws and enforcement of the laws we have in Laws and enforcement of the laws we have in place may conflict with the customs and place may conflict with the customs and experiences of diverse populations. experiences of diverse populations.

One size will not fit all in crime prevention.One size will not fit all in crime prevention.


U.S. Demographics and Diversity U.S. Demographics and Diversity RecommendationsRecommendations

Develop ways to explain legal and Develop ways to explain legal and enforcement systems so they can be enforcement systems so they can be understood by diverse populations.understood by diverse populations.

Develop crime prevention strategies to reach Develop crime prevention strategies to reach widely different populations in languages and widely different populations in languages and frameworks that meet their needs. frameworks that meet their needs.

Find and build bridges between law Find and build bridges between law enforcement and various cultural groups. enforcement and various cultural groups.


Communications Technology Communications Technology PredictionsPredictions

Communications capabilities will continue growing Communications capabilities will continue growing exponentially. exponentially.

The youth of today are used to being connected The youth of today are used to being connected routinely by picture as well as voice with people routinely by picture as well as voice with people living thousands of miles away. This will increase a living thousands of miles away. This will increase a sense of familiarity and friendship where there may sense of familiarity and friendship where there may be no grounds for trust. be no grounds for trust.

Technology will allow for faster communication, Technology will allow for faster communication, closer and closer to “real time” exchanges – nearly closer and closer to “real time” exchanges – nearly instantaneous action – that can abet criminal intent. instantaneous action – that can abet criminal intent.


Communications ChallengesCommunications Challenges

People may not be able to tell the true People may not be able to tell the true intentions of all those they communicate with. intentions of all those they communicate with.

Links between criminals across national Links between criminals across national borders will grow. Networks of criminals will borders will grow. Networks of criminals will become larger, less detectable, and harder to become larger, less detectable, and harder to stop. stop.


Communications Challenges Communications Challenges (cont.)(cont.)

Technology – whether used for productive or Technology – whether used for productive or destructive purposes – crosses national borders destructive purposes – crosses national borders while our law enforcement and legal systems while our law enforcement and legal systems are largely restricted by national borders.are largely restricted by national borders.

Law enforcement agencies nationally and Law enforcement agencies nationally and internationally will struggle to reduce internationally will struggle to reduce technical, legal, and administrative barriers to technical, legal, and administrative barriers to information sharing – barriers that do not information sharing – barriers that do not hamper criminals. hamper criminals.


Communications Technology Communications Technology RecommendationsRecommendations

Develop strategies that help youth understand Develop strategies that help youth understand the risks and apply a healthy level of the risks and apply a healthy level of skepticism when instantaneously skepticism when instantaneously communicating. communicating.

Identify and teach youth, adults, and seniors Identify and teach youth, adults, and seniors preventive strategies against stalking, bullying, preventive strategies against stalking, bullying, fraud, and other predatory behaviors that draw fraud, and other predatory behaviors that draw increasingly on electronic communications increasingly on electronic communications technology.technology.


Data TechnologyData TechnologyPredictionsPredictions

More information will be concentrated in more More information will be concentrated in more places.places.– FinancialFinancial– Identification Identification – MedicalMedical– EmploymentEmployment

More links will be established across More links will be established across information sources. information sources.

More economic resources will be More economic resources will be electronically accessible.electronically accessible.


Data TechnologyData TechnologyPredictions (cont.)Predictions (cont.)

Less direct personal contact in business, Less direct personal contact in business, finance equals more room for deception as finance equals more room for deception as well as for misunderstanding.well as for misunderstanding. The cost of greater The cost of greater efficiency is loss of personal connection.efficiency is loss of personal connection.

The technological race between criminals and The technological race between criminals and law enforcement will continue and even law enforcement will continue and even accelerate.accelerate.

Every computer user – home or workplace – Every computer user – home or workplace – will be faced with an ever-growing number of will be faced with an ever-growing number of patches and upgrades to protect systems. patches and upgrades to protect systems.


Data Technology ChallengesData Technology Challenges

Innovations will expand faster than people can Innovations will expand faster than people can master the changes. Many unaware computer master the changes. Many unaware computer users can be duped through these innovations. users can be duped through these innovations.

Innovation creates room for criminal creativity, Innovation creates room for criminal creativity, changing and increasing the risk of crime.changing and increasing the risk of crime.

Generations differ in their degree of comfort Generations differ in their degree of comfort with technological innovation. They will with technological innovation. They will experience different risks and need different experience different risks and need different prevention techniques. prevention techniques.


Data Technology Data Technology Recommendations Recommendations

Tailor approaches based on the vulnerabilities facing Tailor approaches based on the vulnerabilities facing different groups – older, younger, more and less different groups – older, younger, more and less experienced, etc.experienced, etc.

Educate people on how to protect themselves using a Educate people on how to protect themselves using a combination of technology-based safeguards and combination of technology-based safeguards and behavior. behavior.

Encourage industry to help bridge technology and Encourage industry to help bridge technology and behavior in prevention strategies – building behavior in prevention strategies – building prevention into innovation in software and hardware.prevention into innovation in software and hardware.


Older PopulationsOlder PopulationsPredictionsPredictions

People will live longer.People will live longer. There will be a larger population of older There will be a larger population of older

people – the baby boomers. people – the baby boomers. People will be productive into older ages, People will be productive into older ages,

whether traveling or with “hobby jobs.”whether traveling or with “hobby jobs.” Wealth will be much more concentrated in Wealth will be much more concentrated in

older age groups. older age groups. Individual retirees, not employer pension Individual retirees, not employer pension

funds, will be responsible for managing the funds, will be responsible for managing the significant majority of retirement assets. significant majority of retirement assets.


Older PopulationsOlder PopulationsChallengesChallenges

Older people are less likely to keep up with Older people are less likely to keep up with innovations in technology.innovations in technology.

Older people are more vulnerable to economic Older people are more vulnerable to economic crime. Most will control their own retirement crime. Most will control their own retirement assets, yet may lack technological skills.assets, yet may lack technological skills.

Many in this age group will need crime Many in this age group will need crime prevention strategies that take into account prevention strategies that take into account various impairments. various impairments.


Older Populations Older Populations RecommendationsRecommendations

Develop crime prevention strategies that effectively Develop crime prevention strategies that effectively link older people’s experiences and the steps link older people’s experiences and the steps necessary to prevent crime in new conditions. necessary to prevent crime in new conditions.

Develop behavioral, technological, and hardware Develop behavioral, technological, and hardware crime prevention techniques that work together to crime prevention techniques that work together to help reduce vulnerabilities, with special attention to help reduce vulnerabilities, with special attention to the needs of those with impairments. the needs of those with impairments.

Because travel and activity are likely to be part of Because travel and activity are likely to be part of older people’s lifestyles, teach crime prevention older people’s lifestyles, teach crime prevention accordingly. accordingly.


Generation Gaps in KnowledgeGeneration Gaps in KnowledgePredictionsPredictions

Crime prevention differs for children, youth, Crime prevention differs for children, youth, and adults.and adults.

People frequently don’t teach these skills to People frequently don’t teach these skills to their children or bring them to their new life their children or bring them to their new life situations. situations.

Each generation needs to be taught anew at Each generation needs to be taught anew at each stage. each stage.


Generation Gaps in KnowledgeGeneration Gaps in KnowledgeChallengesChallenges

It is hard to predict precisely how future trends It is hard to predict precisely how future trends will affect crime prevention strategies for will affect crime prevention strategies for different life stages – but we can be sure that different life stages – but we can be sure that they will. they will.

It is not clear how often people need to be It is not clear how often people need to be reminded or reeducated about different reminded or reeducated about different prevention strategies. prevention strategies.


Generation Gaps in KnowledgeGeneration Gaps in KnowledgeRecommendationsRecommendations

We must persist in renewing crime prevention We must persist in renewing crime prevention education for each age group. education for each age group.

We need to assess new crime and crime We need to assess new crime and crime prevention trends as they apply to each age prevention trends as they apply to each age group. group.

We should create intergenerational crime We should create intergenerational crime prevention strategies that engage people in prevention strategies that engage people in teaching each other.teaching each other.


Crime Prevention ToolsCrime Prevention Toolsand Benefitsand Benefits

The ten Principles of Crime Prevention set The ten Principles of Crime Prevention set forth by the Crime Prevention Coalition of forth by the Crime Prevention Coalition of America America –Engaging the Power of Prevention –Engaging the Power of Prevention (2005)(2005) – – provide guidance to everyone about provide guidance to everyone about how to build and sustain crime prevention how to build and sustain crime prevention programs and strategies. programs and strategies.


The 10 Principles of Crime The 10 Principles of Crime PreventionPrevention

Preventing crime is everyone's businessPreventing crime is everyone's business Preventing crime is more than securityPreventing crime is more than security Preventing crime is a responsibility of all Preventing crime is a responsibility of all

levels of government and agencies of levels of government and agencies of governmentgovernment

Preventing crime is linked with solving social Preventing crime is linked with solving social problemsproblems

Preventing crime is cost-effectivePreventing crime is cost-effective


10 Principles Continued…10 Principles Continued…

Preventing crimePreventing crime Requires a central role in law enforcementRequires a central role in law enforcement Requires an active cooperation and collaboration Requires an active cooperation and collaboration

by all elements of the communityby all elements of the community Requires educationRequires education Requires tailoring to local needs and conditionsRequires tailoring to local needs and conditions Requires continual testing and improvementRequires continual testing and improvement


Crime Prevention ImprovesCrime Prevention Improves

The Quality of Life for EveryThe Quality of Life for Every

CommunityCommunity


Building on ExperienceBuilding on Experience

A look at achievements of crime prevention A look at achievements of crime prevention will help us update crime prevention will help us update crime prevention strategies for the future. strategies for the future.

““We can chart our future clearly and wisely We can chart our future clearly and wisely only when we know the path only when we know the path which has led to the present.”which has led to the present.”

- Adlai Stevenson- Adlai Stevenson


The 1970s The 1970s

Crime prevention is seen by the public as the Crime prevention is seen by the public as the responsibility of police. responsibility of police.

The concept of citizen action to reduce crime The concept of citizen action to reduce crime emerges from Law Enforcement Assistance emerges from Law Enforcement Assistance Administration-sponsored programs.Administration-sponsored programs.

Neighborhood Watch is born.Neighborhood Watch is born.


The 1980sThe 1980s

Major DevelopmentsMajor Developments– Crime Prevention Coalition of AmericaCrime Prevention Coalition of America

– McGruff the Crime Dog®McGruff the Crime Dog®

– National Citizens’ Crime Prevention CampaignNational Citizens’ Crime Prevention Campaign

The role of youth in crime prevention is The role of youth in crime prevention is recognized and engaged.recognized and engaged.

Comprehensive action-focused community Comprehensive action-focused community planning emerges.planning emerges.


The 1990sThe 1990s

Crime Prevention Coalition of America Crime Prevention Coalition of America publishes Principles of Crime Prevention.publishes Principles of Crime Prevention.

Violence prevention programs proliferate in Violence prevention programs proliferate in response to a rise in youth crime.response to a rise in youth crime.

The costs of crime are more thoroughly The costs of crime are more thoroughly documented.documented.


The 1990sThe 1990s (cont.)(cont.)

Comprehensive fact-based prevention Comprehensive fact-based prevention approaches gain momentum.approaches gain momentum.

School safety becomes a major issue.School safety becomes a major issue.


Today, Our Base is StrongToday, Our Base is Strong

Communities are safer than in the 1970s. Both FBI and Communities are safer than in the 1970s. Both FBI and National Crime Victimization crime event data are at 30-year National Crime Victimization crime event data are at 30-year lows.lows.

People see themselves as having an important role in making People see themselves as having an important role in making their communities safer.their communities safer.

Crime prevention has a wider foundation than just law Crime prevention has a wider foundation than just law enforcement.enforcement.

The Coalition, NCPC, and McGruff continue to provide focus The Coalition, NCPC, and McGruff continue to provide focus and resources.and resources.

The Bureau of Justice Assistance (U.S. Department of Justice) The Bureau of Justice Assistance (U.S. Department of Justice) is actively engaged in enhancing the capacity of crime is actively engaged in enhancing the capacity of crime prevention organizations to meet the challenges of the future. prevention organizations to meet the challenges of the future.


Opportunities for Opportunities for Crime Prevention Crime Prevention in the 21in the 21stst Century Century

Build worldwide links to strengthen Build worldwide links to strengthen prevention. prevention.

Make new communications technology Make new communications technology effective in teaching crime prevention. effective in teaching crime prevention.

Incorporate prevention in new technologies.Incorporate prevention in new technologies. Enlist new generation in crime prevention. Enlist new generation in crime prevention. Strengthen and institutionalize crime Strengthen and institutionalize crime

prevention.prevention.


Hold on – just a minute!Hold on – just a minute!


The Future Just ChangedThe Future Just Changed

The future is not guaranteed.The future is not guaranteed. We can predict but not promise.We can predict but not promise. Prediction helps us think about the future, Prediction helps us think about the future,

which helps us prepare for change, whatever it which helps us prepare for change, whatever it looks like.looks like.

The best advice is to stay alert, stay up-to-date, The best advice is to stay alert, stay up-to-date, stay flexible, stay committed – and stay safe!stay flexible, stay committed – and stay safe!


National National Crime Prevention Crime Prevention

CouncilCouncil

1000 Connecticut Avenue, NW1000 Connecticut Avenue, NW

Thirteenth FloorThirteenth Floor

Washington, DC 20036-5325Washington, DC 20036-5325

202-466-6272202-466-6272

www.ncpc.orgwww.ncpc.org