Institute for Criminal Justice Studies

Crime and Prevention Crime and Prevention TRENDS TRENDS

©This TCLEOSE approved Crime Prevention Curriculum is the property of CSCS-ICJS CRIME PREVENTION II

ObjectivesObjectives

• Consider current trends in crime and prevention

• Explore five major, emerging trends and challenges over the next 20 years

• Examine ways to meet these challenges

• How to use crime prevention as a strong foundation

• Ways to move forward

Why Pay Attention to Trends?Why Pay Attention to Trends?

• TrendsTrends change our lives.

• A line of general direction or movement, current style or prevailing tendency or inclination.

• How would you have called for emergency road service?

• Today?

• How could you get cash out of your bank in a strange city at 1:00 am?

• Today?

In 1986 How would you:In 1986 How would you:

In 1986 How would you:In 1986 How would you:Continued

• How big was a high-quality personal music player?

• Today?

• How bulky were televisions?

• Today?

Crime Prevention ImplicationsCrime Prevention Implications

• Some crime prevention implications:Some crime prevention implications:

Cell phones: ATM:

Lightweight TVS: I-pods:

Other Recent TrendsOther Recent Trends

• On-line banking

• Cyberbullying

• Identity theft

• Local terrorism

Understanding Crime Understanding Crime Trends Helps Us…Trends Helps Us…

• Anticipate prevention needs

• Learn from the past

• Reap the benefits

• Serve as effective advocates

Where Are We Now?Where Are We Now?

• Geography no longer governs community. The physical neighborhood around one’s residence is only part of community.

• People now operate in many different communities that overlap only slightly if at all.

•Work

•Home

•Extended family

•Shopping

•Recreation

Here are some of these Here are some of these CommunitiesCommunities

•Faith

•Professional associations

•Special interests (hobbies, civic, fraternal, etc.)

Here are some of these Here are some of these CommunitiesCommunities – continued:continued:

Crime Trends andCrime Trends andHow We Count CrimeHow We Count Crime

Counting crime helps us track our progress. At the national level, there are currently two systems.

• National Crime Victimization Survey

• FBI Uniform Crime Reports

www.fbi.gov

Crime Trends andCrime Trends andHow We Count Crime (cont.)How We Count Crime (cont.)

• Two emerging systemssystems will lead to more detailed and localized data:

FBI National Incident-BasedIncident-Based Reporting System

Local Crime VictimizationVictimization Surveys

Current Crime TrendsCurrent Crime Trends

• In 2007, U.S. residents (12 years and older) experienced 23 million violent and property crimes -- an estimated 18 million18 million property crimes (burglary, motor vehicle theft, and theft) and 5.2 million violent crimes (rape, robbery, aggravated and simple assault, and homicide).

Current Crime Trends (cont.)

■Personal and household victimizations are at 32-year32-year lows, according to 2007 National Crime Victimization Survey data.

Source - BJS - National Crime Victimization Survey (Criminal Victimization, 2007)

■FBI Uniform Crime Report data for 2007 show a 2.4 percent increase in reported violent violent crime compared with 2006. PropertyProperty crimes decreased by 1.8 percent in the same period.

Source: Federal Bureau of Investigation 2007

Current Crime Trends (cont.)

• In 2007, 49 percent of violent crimes and 43 percent43 percent of property crimes were reported to police, a substantial increase from the 35 percent to 40 percent reporting levels in the late 1970s.

Source – BJS, National Crime Victimization Survey (Criminal Victimization 2007)

Current Crime and Prevention Issues

• Methamphetamine, identity theftidentity theft, fraud against seniors, gangs, and homeland security are among the hot issues nationwide.

• Many residents feel that serious crimecrime occurs only in isolated areas within their communities.

Current Crime Prevention Issues (cont.)

• Computers as tools of personal and economiceconomic crime are a well-established fact.

• Information brokering is a new new criminal activitycriminal activity.

Current Crime Prevention Issues (cont.)

• Emphasis on fact-basedfact-based, research-based programming is becoming a standard.

• PressurePressure to demonstrate program outcomes – not how much was done but what has changed because of it – is increasingly prevalent at national, state, and local levels.

Current Crime Prevention Issues (cont.)Current Crime Prevention Issues (cont.)

• Federal and state shifting of financialfinancial burdens to localities have reduce crime prevention resources.

• New toolstools to help crime prevention

What Is the Outlook for the What Is the Outlook for the Future?Future?

• Five major predictionsFive major predictions

The United States is significantly more diversemore diverse.

Communications technology is evolving dramatically.

Data technologytechnology is expanding dramatically.

People live longerPeople live longer, are more active longer.

The need to educateeducate each new wave of children, adolescents, and adults continues.

Five major predictions - continued

U.S. Demographics and DiversityU.S. Demographics and DiversityPredictionsPredictions

• The United States is becoming more more diversediverse.

• Estimates are that by 2050, people of color (predominantly African Americans and Hispanics/Latinos) will comprise nearly a majority of the U.S. population.

2010% of TOTALTOTAL 100.0White alone 79.3Black alone 13.1Asian alone 4.6All other races 3.0Hispanic 15.5(of any race) White alone 65.1(not Hispanic)* Includes American Indian and Alaska Native alone, Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone, and Two or More RacesSource: U.S. Census Bureau, 2004, "U.S. Interim Projections by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin,“

www.census.gov/ipc/www/usinterimproj/>

THIS DOES NOTINCLUDE

UNDOCUMENTEDALIENS

2030% of TOTALTOTAL 100.0White alone 75.8Black alone 13.9Asian alone 6.2All other races 4.1Hispanic 20.120.1(of any race) White alone 57.557.5(not Hispanic)

THIS DOES NOTINCLUDE

UNDOCUMENTEDALIENS

U.S. Demographics and U.S. Demographics and Diversity ChallengesDiversity Challenges

• We will have more diverse languageslanguages, cultures, norms, issues of personal and group behaviors, and ideas of lawful behavior and activity.

• Laws and enforcement of the laws we have in place may conflict conflict with the customswith the customs and experiences of diverse populations.

• One size will not fit all in crime prevention.

U.S. Demographics and U.S. Demographics and Diversity Challenges – cont’dDiversity Challenges – cont’d

U.S. Demographics and Diversity Recommendations

• Develop ways to explain legal and enforcement systems so they can be understood by diverse populations.

How could this impact adversely How could this impact adversely on Crime Prevention? on Crime Prevention?

• Develop crime preventioncrime prevention strategies to reach widely different populations in languages and frameworks that meet their needs.

• Find and build bridgesbridges between law enforcement and various cultural groups.

Diversity Recommendations – Cont’d

Communications Technology Predictions

• CommunicationsCommunications • Youth of todayYouth of today • TechnologyTechnology

Communications ChallengesCommunications Challenges

• Communication Intentions

• Links and NetworksNetworks between criminals

• Technology

• LE Technical, legal legal administrative barriers

Communications Technology Recommendations

• Develop strategiesstrategies that help youth

• Identify and teach youthyouth, adults, and seniors

Data TechnologyData TechnologyPredictionsPredictions

• More information will be concentrated in more places.

• More links will be established across informationinformation sources.

• More economiceconomic resources will be electronically accessible.

Data TechnologyPredictions (cont.)

• Less direct personal contact in business, and finance

• Technological race between criminalscriminals and law enforcement

• Every computercomputer user – home or workplace

Data Technology ChallengesData Technology Challenges

• Innovations will expand

• Innovation • Generations

Data Technology Data Technology RecommendationsRecommendations

• Tailor approaches

• Educate people

• Encourage industry

Older PopulationsOlder PopulationsPredictionsPredictions

• People will live longerlonger

• Larger population of olderolder people

• People will be productiveproductive into older ages

• Individual retirees

Older PopulationsChallenges

• Older peoplepeople are less likely to

• OlderOlder people are more vulnerable

• Many in this age group will need

Older Populations Older Populations RecommendationsRecommendations

• Develop crime preventioncrime prevention strategies

• Develop behavioralbehavioral, technological, and hardware crime prevention techniques

• Because travel and activity are likely to be part of older people’s lifestyles, teach crime preventioncrime prevention accordingly.

Generation Gaps in KnowledgeGeneration Gaps in KnowledgePredictionsPredictions

• Crime prevention differsdiffers

• People frequently don’t teachteach

• Each generation

Generation Gaps in KnowledgeChallenges

• It is hard to predictpredict precisely how future trends will affect crime prevention

• It is not clear

Generation Gaps in Generation Gaps in KnowledgeKnowledge

RecommendationsRecommendations

• We must persist

• We need to

• We should

Crime Prevention Toolsand Benefits

• The ten Principles of Crime Prevention set forth by the Crime Prevention Coalition of America –Engaging the Power of Prevention (2007) – provide guidance to everyone about how to build and sustain crime prevention programs and strategies.

The 10 Principles of Crime The 10 Principles of Crime PreventionPrevention

1. Preventing crime is everyone's businesseveryone's business

2. Preventing crime is more than securitysecurity

3. Preventing crime is a responsibility of allall levels levels of government and agencies of government

4. Preventing crime is linked with solving social social problems

5. Preventing crime is cost-effectivecost-effective

10 Principles Continued…

Preventing crimePreventing crime6. Requires a centralcentral role in law

enforcement7. Requires an active cooperationcooperation and

collaboration by all elements of the community

8. Requires educationeducation9. Requires tailoring to local needs and

conditions10.Requires continual testing testing and

improvement

Crime Prevention ImprovesCrime Prevention Improves

The Quality of Life for The Quality of Life for EveryEvery

CommunityCommunity

Building on ExperienceBuilding on Experience

A look at achievements of crime prevention will help us update crime prevention strategies for the future.

“We can chart our future clearly and wisely only when we know the path which has led to the present.”

- Adlai Stevenson

The 1970sThe 1970s • Crime prevention is seen by the

publicpublic as the responsibility of police.

• The concept of citizencitizen action to reduce crime emerges from Law Enforcement Assistance Administration-sponsored programs.

• Neighborhood Watch is bornNeighborhood Watch is born.

The 1980sThe 1980s

Major Developments

• The rolerole of youthyouth in crime prevention

• Comprehensive action-focused communitycommunity planning emerges.

The 1990sThe 1990s• Crime Prevention Coalition of America

publishespublishes Principles of Crime Prevention.

• Violence prevention programs proliferateproliferate in response to a rise in youth crime.

• The costs costs of crime are more thoroughly documented.

The 1990sThe 1990s(cont.)

• Comprehensive fact-basedfact-based prevention approaches gain momentum.

• School safetysafety becomes a major issue.

Today, Our Base is StrongToday, Our Base is Strong

• Communities are safer than in the 1970s.

• People see themselves as having an important role in making their communitiescommunities safer.

• Crime prevention has a wider foundation than just law law enforcementenforcement.

• The Coalition, NCPC, and McGruffMcGruff continue to provide focus and resources.

• The Bureau of Justice Assistance

Today, Our Base is StrongToday, Our Base is Strong

Opportunities for Crime Prevention Opportunities for Crime Prevention in the 21in the 21stst Century Century

• Build worldwideworldwide links to strengthen prevention.

• Make new communicationscommunications technology effective in teaching crime prevention.

• Incorporate preventionprevention in new technologies.

• Enlist new generationgeneration in crime prevention.

• Strengthen and institutionalize institutionalize crime prevention.

Opportunities for Crime Prevention Opportunities for Crime Prevention in the 21in the 21stst Century – Cont’d Century – Cont’d

Hold on – just a minute!

The Future Just ChangedThe Future Just Changed

• The futurefuture is not guaranteed.

• We can predictpredict but not promise.

• PredictionPrediction helps us think about the future, which helps us prepare for change, whatever it looks like.

• The best advice is to stay alert, stay up-to-dateup-to-date, stay flexible, stay committed – and stay safe!

National Crime Prevention National Crime Prevention CouncilCouncil

1000 Connecticut Avenue, NW

Thirteenth Floor

Washington, DC 20036-5325

202-466-6272

www.ncpc.org

TEAM PRACTICAL EXCERCISETEAM PRACTICAL EXCERCISE

• TEAM I – Crime Prevention Implications, Other recent trends, understanding crime trends and where we are now.

• TEAM II – Crime trends and how we count crime, current crime trends, current crime prevention issues.

• TEAM III – What is out look for the future, US demographics and diversity predictions, demographics and diversity challenges, and recommendations.

• TEAM IV – Communications technology predictions, communications challenges, communication technology recommendations. Data technology predictions, challenges and recommendations.

• TEAM V – Older population predictions, challenges, recommendations, Generation gaps in knowledge predictions, challenges and recommendations.

Presenter Contact Information

I NSTI TUTE CR I M I NAL JUSTICE STUDI ESCen ter Safe Com m u n ities & Sch oo ls

TEX AS STATE UNI VERSI TY

I NSTI TUTE CR I M I NAL JUSTICE STUDI ESCen ter Safe Com m u n ities & Sch oo ls

TEX AS STATE UNI VERSI TY

350 N. Guadalupe, Suite 140, PMB 164San Marcos, Texas 78666.

877-304-2727 www.cscs.txstate.edu