Climate System Monitoring

Shotaro TanakaChief of climate diagnosis

Climate Prediction Division of JMA

Contents

1. Introduction

2. Monitoring of Tropical Conditions

3. Features of El Nino/La Nina events

4. Mudden Julian Oscillation (MJO)

5. Asian Summer Monsoon

6. Products

7. Climate Diagnostic Meeting

8. Future Plans

1. Introduction

Purposes

• To understand current condition of the climate system

• To provide the climate system information

• To explain unusual weather• To improve the long-range weather forecast

Data

Atmospheric Circulation :

Objective Analysis Data produced in JMA

ERA-15 for climatological normal

Tropical Convection :

Outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) from NOAA

SST : Analysis Data produced in JMA

Snow cover and Sea Ice :

Observations with SSM/I onboard the DMSP polar orbiting satellites from NOAA

Focusing Points of Monitoring and Analysis

• Difference from Climatological Normal

• Seasonal March

• Variations (MJO, ENSO, etc.)

• Influence of the Tropics to the Extratropics

• Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction

2. Monitoring of Tropical Conditions 3-month Mean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in DJF

Current SST (DJF 2002/2003)

Normal SST (DJF)

3-month Mean SST in JJA

Current SST (JJA 2003)

Normal SST (JJA)

3-Month Mean SST Anomaly (DJF and JJA 2003)

SSTA (Jun-Aug2003)

SSTA (Dec2002-Feb2003)

Tropical Convective Activity

Jan.

Jul.

Intertropical Convergence ZoneActive Convection Area

OLR(Outgoing Longwave Radiation, W/m2)

Seasonal March of Tropical Convection

Africa Southeast Asia South America

Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec.

3-Month Mean OLR Anomaly (DJF and JJA 2003)

OLRA (Jun-Aug2003)

OLRA (Dec2002-Feb2003)

Normal Condition of Tropical Circulation (January)

Stream Function at 200-hPa

Stream Function at 850-hPa

H

H HH

H

H H

HH H

L

Walker Circulation

Subtropical Jet

Normal Condition of Tropical Circulation (July)

Stream Function at 200-hPa

Stream Function at 850-hPa

H H

HH

H H

H HH

L

Tibetan High

Monsoon Westerlies

Mid-Pacific Trough

Monsoon Trough

From CPC/NOAA Home Page

Tropical Convection and Walker Circulation

Walker Circulation :Vertical-ZonalCirculation alongthe equator

Zonal Mean Fields

January 2003 July 2003

REGION D(14N-EQ,130-150E)

REGION A(4N-4S,160E-150W)

REGION B(4N-4S,150-90W)

REGION C(EQ-10S,90-80W)

SST Indices

20021999 20001998 2001 2003Red Shading : El Nino phaseBlue Shading : La Nina phase

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

SOI

DARWIN

TAHITI

Southern Oscillation

2001

Red Shading : El Nino phaseBlue Shading : La Nina phase

SOI(Southern Oscillation Index) = (SLP at Tahiti) － (SLP at Darwin)

1997 1998 1999 2000 2002 20031993 1994 1995 1996

OLR Indices

OLR-PH

OLR-MC

OLR-DL

1997 1998 1999 2000

2001 2002

OLR indices: area-averaged OLR anomaly

1993 1994 1995 1996 2003

Equatorial Zonal Wind Indices

U200-IN

U850-CP

U850-EP

U850-WP

U200-CP

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20021993 1994 1995 1996 2003

El Nino (Dec.1997-Feb.1998)

La Nina (Dec.1998-Feb.1999)red (blue) shading: above (below) normal SST

3. Features in El Nino/La Nina events 3-month Mean SST Anomaly

Regression of 3-month Mean SST on NINO3

DJF

JJA

OLR Anomaly (in El Nino and La Nina)

El Nino (Dec.1997-Feb.1998)

La Nina (Dec.1998-Feb.1999)

blue (red) shading: stronger(weaker)-than-normal convective activity

El Nino Composite Map (OLR)

Dec.-Feb.

Jun.-Aug.

blue (red) Contour: stronger(weaker)-than-normal convective activity

El Nino Composite of Stream Function Anomaly (DJF)

blue (red) Contour: cyclonic (anti-cyclonic) circulation anomaly in N.H.

200hPa

850hPa

El Nino Composite of Stream Function Anomaly (JJA)

blue (red) Contour: cyclonic (anti-cyclonic) circulation anomaly in N.H.

850hPa

200hPa

El Nino/La Nina Composite of 500hPa Height

El Nino (Dec.-Feb.) La Nina (Dec.-Feb.)

blue (red) Contour: negative(positive) anomaly

PNA Pattern TNH Pattern

WP Pattern

4. Mudden-Julian Oscillation(MJO)

Active Convectionpropagating eastward

MJO: intraseasonal oscillation propagating eastward along the equator with 30-60 days period T

ime flow

Westerly Burst

Africa Indonesia South America

Monitoring of MJO

Time-Longitude Section of 5-day mean 200-hPa Velocity Potential Anomaly (5S-5N) （ from Mar. to Aug. 2002 ）

blue shading: divergence

Northward Propagation of Active Convection

Time-Latitude Section of 5-day mean OLR averaged in 65-85E （ from Apr. to Sep.2002 ）

Active Phase of MJO

5. Asian Summer Monsoon• Onset : mid-May over Indochina Peninsula• Withdrawal : mid-October• Tibetan High at upper level (easterly wind)• Thermal Low pressure at lower level (westerly wind)

Sea level Pressure, 850hPa wind, and OLR （ Jul.2003 ）

Somali Jet

Active Convection

L

Subtropical High

Normal Evolution of Asian Summer Monsoon (1) (Convective Activity and Lower Level Circulation)

Normal Evolution of Asian Summer Monsoon (2) (Convective Activity and Higher Level Circulation)

Summer (JJA) Mean Anomalous Circulation in 2003

3-month Mean Temperature Anomaly (Normalized) Category 3-month Precipitation Ratio Category

3-month Mean 850-hPa Stream Function and OLR

Monthly Mean Anomalous Circulation in 2003 Summer

850-hPa Stream Function and OLR 200-hPa Stream Function and OLR

HH

HH

H

L L

LL

L

Jun.

Jul.

Aug.

H

- 1.5

- 1.0

- 0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

SAMOI(N) SAMOI(W) SAMOI(A)

Summer Asian Monsoon OLR Index (SAMOI)

SAMOI(A) : Activity W+ESAMOI(N) : Northward Shift N － SSAMOI(W) : Westward Shift W － E

Time Series ofSAMOI averaged insummer (Jun.-Aug.)(1979-2003) 19

82

1984

1983

1985

1997

1998

1999

2000

SAMOI-A and Summer (JJA) Mean Temperature in Japan

- 1.5

- 1.0

- 0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

- 3.0

- 2.0

- 1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0SAMOI- A T北日本

Time Series of Summer(JJA) Averaged SAMOI-A(Pink Line) and The Temperature in Northern Japan (Blue Line)

Correlation Coefficient : +0.78 ( in 1979-2003)

Significantly Positive Correlation between SAMOI-A and the Temperaturein Northern, Eastern and Western Japan

Products

Online (through TCC web site):

• Monthly Report on Climate System (MRCS),

• Asian monsoon monitoring,

• stratospheric circulation monitoring,

• statistics research.

Offline:

• MRCS,

• Annual Report on Climate System (as CD-ROM),

• MRCS / Separated Volumes,

Menu of Climate System Monitoring on the TCC Web Site

7. Climate Diagnostic Meeting

• Held around 10th every month

• Attendance : forecasters, senior science

officers, etc.

• To brief and discuss current conditions of

climate system

• To share the consensus of the current conditions

8. Future Plans

• To improve long-range forecast• To employ new diagnostic tools• To examine the climate system further• To improve and increase the products

on the web site