Download - Climate System Monitoring
Climate System Monitoring
Shotaro TanakaChief of climate diagnosis
Climate Prediction Division of JMA
Contents
1. Introduction
2. Monitoring of Tropical Conditions
3. Features of El Nino/La Nina events
4. Mudden Julian Oscillation (MJO)
5. Asian Summer Monsoon
6. Products
7. Climate Diagnostic Meeting
8. Future Plans
1. Introduction
Purposes
• To understand current condition of the climate system
• To provide the climate system information
• To explain unusual weather• To improve the long-range weather forecast
Data
Atmospheric Circulation :
Objective Analysis Data produced in JMA
ERA-15 for climatological normal
Tropical Convection :
Outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) from NOAA
SST : Analysis Data produced in JMA
Snow cover and Sea Ice :
Observations with SSM/I onboard the DMSP polar orbiting satellites from NOAA
Focusing Points of Monitoring and Analysis
• Difference from Climatological Normal
• Seasonal March
• Variations (MJO, ENSO, etc.)
• Influence of the Tropics to the Extratropics
• Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction
2. Monitoring of Tropical Conditions 3-month Mean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in DJF
Current SST (DJF 2002/2003)
Normal SST (DJF)
3-month Mean SST in JJA
Current SST (JJA 2003)
Normal SST (JJA)
3-Month Mean SST Anomaly (DJF and JJA 2003)
SSTA (Jun-Aug2003)
SSTA (Dec2002-Feb2003)
Tropical Convective Activity
Jan.
Jul.
Intertropical Convergence ZoneActive Convection Area
OLR(Outgoing Longwave Radiation, W/m2)
Seasonal March of Tropical Convection
Africa Southeast Asia South America
Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec.
3-Month Mean OLR Anomaly (DJF and JJA 2003)
OLRA (Jun-Aug2003)
OLRA (Dec2002-Feb2003)
Normal Condition of Tropical Circulation (January)
Stream Function at 200-hPa
Stream Function at 850-hPa
H
H HH
H
H H
HH H
L
Walker Circulation
Subtropical Jet
Normal Condition of Tropical Circulation (July)
Stream Function at 200-hPa
Stream Function at 850-hPa
H H
HH
H H
H HH
L
Tibetan High
Monsoon Westerlies
Mid-Pacific Trough
Monsoon Trough
From CPC/NOAA Home Page
Tropical Convection and Walker Circulation
Walker Circulation :Vertical-ZonalCirculation alongthe equator
Zonal Mean Fields
January 2003 July 2003
REGION D(14N-EQ,130-150E)
REGION A(4N-4S,160E-150W)
REGION B(4N-4S,150-90W)
REGION C(EQ-10S,90-80W)
SST Indices
20021999 20001998 2001 2003Red Shading : El Nino phaseBlue Shading : La Nina phase
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997
SOI
DARWIN
TAHITI
Southern Oscillation
2001
Red Shading : El Nino phaseBlue Shading : La Nina phase
SOI(Southern Oscillation Index) = (SLP at Tahiti) - (SLP at Darwin)
1997 1998 1999 2000 2002 20031993 1994 1995 1996
OLR Indices
OLR-PH
OLR-MC
OLR-DL
1997 1998 1999 2000
2001 2002
OLR indices: area-averaged OLR anomaly
1993 1994 1995 1996 2003
Equatorial Zonal Wind Indices
U200-IN
U850-CP
U850-EP
U850-WP
U200-CP
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20021993 1994 1995 1996 2003
El Nino (Dec.1997-Feb.1998)
La Nina (Dec.1998-Feb.1999)red (blue) shading: above (below) normal SST
3. Features in El Nino/La Nina events 3-month Mean SST Anomaly
Regression of 3-month Mean SST on NINO3
DJF
JJA
OLR Anomaly (in El Nino and La Nina)
El Nino (Dec.1997-Feb.1998)
La Nina (Dec.1998-Feb.1999)
blue (red) shading: stronger(weaker)-than-normal convective activity
El Nino Composite Map (OLR)
Dec.-Feb.
Jun.-Aug.
blue (red) Contour: stronger(weaker)-than-normal convective activity
El Nino Composite of Stream Function Anomaly (DJF)
blue (red) Contour: cyclonic (anti-cyclonic) circulation anomaly in N.H.
200hPa
850hPa
El Nino Composite of Stream Function Anomaly (JJA)
blue (red) Contour: cyclonic (anti-cyclonic) circulation anomaly in N.H.
850hPa
200hPa
El Nino/La Nina Composite of 500hPa Height
El Nino (Dec.-Feb.) La Nina (Dec.-Feb.)
blue (red) Contour: negative(positive) anomaly
PNA Pattern TNH Pattern
WP Pattern
4. Mudden-Julian Oscillation(MJO)
Active Convectionpropagating eastward
MJO: intraseasonal oscillation propagating eastward along the equator with 30-60 days period T
ime flow
Westerly Burst
Africa Indonesia South America
Monitoring of MJO
Time-Longitude Section of 5-day mean 200-hPa Velocity Potential Anomaly (5S-5N) ( from Mar. to Aug. 2002 )
blue shading: divergence
Northward Propagation of Active Convection
Time-Latitude Section of 5-day mean OLR averaged in 65-85E ( from Apr. to Sep.2002 )
Active Phase of MJO
5. Asian Summer Monsoon• Onset : mid-May over Indochina Peninsula• Withdrawal : mid-October• Tibetan High at upper level (easterly wind)• Thermal Low pressure at lower level (westerly wind)
Sea level Pressure, 850hPa wind, and OLR ( Jul.2003 )
Somali Jet
Active Convection
L
Subtropical High
Normal Evolution of Asian Summer Monsoon (1) (Convective Activity and Lower Level Circulation)
Normal Evolution of Asian Summer Monsoon (2) (Convective Activity and Higher Level Circulation)
Summer (JJA) Mean Anomalous Circulation in 2003
3-month Mean Temperature Anomaly (Normalized) Category 3-month Precipitation Ratio Category
3-month Mean 850-hPa Stream Function and OLR
Monthly Mean Anomalous Circulation in 2003 Summer
850-hPa Stream Function and OLR 200-hPa Stream Function and OLR
HH
HH
H
L L
LL
L
Jun.
Jul.
Aug.
H
- 1.5
- 1.0
- 0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
SAMOI(N) SAMOI(W) SAMOI(A)
Summer Asian Monsoon OLR Index (SAMOI)
SAMOI(A) : Activity W+ESAMOI(N) : Northward Shift N - SSAMOI(W) : Westward Shift W - E
Time Series ofSAMOI averaged insummer (Jun.-Aug.)(1979-2003) 19
82
1984
1983
1985
1997
1998
1999
2000
SAMOI-A and Summer (JJA) Mean Temperature in Japan
- 1.5
- 1.0
- 0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
- 3.0
- 2.0
- 1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0SAMOI- A T北日本
Time Series of Summer(JJA) Averaged SAMOI-A(Pink Line) and The Temperature in Northern Japan (Blue Line)
Correlation Coefficient : +0.78 ( in 1979-2003)
Significantly Positive Correlation between SAMOI-A and the Temperaturein Northern, Eastern and Western Japan
Products
Online (through TCC web site):
• Monthly Report on Climate System (MRCS),
• Asian monsoon monitoring,
• stratospheric circulation monitoring,
• statistics research.
Offline:
• MRCS,
• Annual Report on Climate System (as CD-ROM),
• MRCS / Separated Volumes,
Menu of Climate System Monitoring on the TCC Web Site
7. Climate Diagnostic Meeting
• Held around 10th every month
• Attendance : forecasters, senior science
officers, etc.
• To brief and discuss current conditions of
climate system
• To share the consensus of the current conditions
8. Future Plans
• To improve long-range forecast• To employ new diagnostic tools• To examine the climate system further• To improve and increase the products
on the web site