meteosat climate monitoring & river flow forecasting
TRANSCRIPT
EARSSatellite data for Climate Water and Food
Meteosat Climate Monitoring &River Flow Forecasting
Andries Rosema & Steven FoppesEARS Delft Netherlands
Raymond Venneker & Shreedar MaskeyUNESCO-IHE Delft Netherlands
GEO-UNESCO Workshop on Earth Observations & Capacity Development for IWRM at River Basins in Africa, Nairobi, January 2012
EARSSatellite data for Climate Water and Food
Meteosat
MSG
FY2c
METEOSAT IOC
MTSat
EARSSatellite data for Climate Water and Food
Energy en Water Balance
Radiation
Heat Evaporation Precipitation
Flow
EARSSatellite data for Climate Water and Food
Energy and Water Balance Monitoring System (EWBMS)
Precipit.processing
Clouds
TemperatureAlbedo
Energybalance
processing
WMOstations
Precipitation
Radiation
Evaporation
Crop growthmodel
Hydrologicalmodel
River flowforecasting
Crop yieldforecasting
Droughtprocessing
Droughtmonitoring
MeteosatFengYun-2
VIS & TIR
EARSSatellite data for Climate Water and Food
Precipitation continental coverage
EARSSatellite data for Climate Water and Food
Evapotranspiration continental coverage
EARSSatellite data for Climate Water and Food
Frequent data (daily, 10-daily)
EARSSatellite data for Climate Water and Food
Complete river basins
EARSSatellite data for Climate Water and Food
River basin drought monitoring
EARSSatellite data for Climate Water and Food
Drought indices
• Meteorological drought– SPI or deviation from average
• Hydrological drought– Catchment Water Balance: WB = R – E
• Agricultural drought– Evapotranspiration drought index: EDI = E/EP (monthly avg)
• Climatological drought– Climatic Moisture Index (UNCCD) CMI = E/R (yearly avg)
– Soil moisture index SMI = E/EP (yearly avg)
EARSSatellite data for Climate Water and Food
Agricultural drought
y = 0.3133x
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0
Average relative evapotranspiration (%)
Soi
l moi
stur
e co
nten
t (0-
5 cm
)
y = 0.3751x
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0
Average relative evapotranspiration (%)
Soi
l moi
stur
e co
nten
t (0-
1 m
)
PAW 0.35 RE
(2) monthly relative evapotranspiration (EDI)
Proportional to plant available water (PAW)
Proportional to crop yield: 1-RY = k (1-RE)
0102030405060708090
100
1 21 41 61 81 101 121 141 161 181dekade
rel.
evap
otra
nspi
ratio
n
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
soil
moi
stur
e co
nten
t
Relative evapotranspiration Soil moisture content 0-5 cm
EARSSatellite data for Climate Water and Food
River flow forecasting
Yellow River (2005-2009)
EARSSatellite data for Climate Water and Food
Upper Yellow RiverWei River2
1
3
45
6
7
8
Wei River
Upper
Yellow River
Second largest river basin ofChina
Yellow River basin
EARSSatellite data for Climate Water and Food
GMS / FY2 precipitation data1st q u arter 2000 2n d qu arter 2000
3rd q u arter 2000 4th qu arter 2000
EARSSatellite data for Climate Water and Food
GMS / FY2 evapotranspiration data
1st quarter 2000 2nd quarter 2000
3rd quarter 2000 4th quarter 2000
EARSSatellite data for Climate Water and Food
Validation: water balance
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Jul-0
5
Sep-
05No
v-05
Jan-
06M
ar-0
6
May
-06
Jul-0
6
Sep-
06No
v-06
Jan-
07M
ar-0
7M
ay-0
7Ju
l-07
Sep-
07
Nov-
07Ja
n-08
Mar
-08
May
-08
Jul-0
8
Net P
recip
itatio
n (m
m)
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Rive
r Disc
harg
e (m
m)
Net precipitation 5 days-floating average
River discharge at Tangnaihai
0200400600800
10001200140016001800
Jul-0
5
Sep-
05
Nov-
05
Jan-
06
Mar
-06
May
-06
Jul-0
6
Sep-
06
Nov-
06
Jan-
07
Mar
-07
May
-07
Jul-0
7
Sep-
07
Nov-
07
Jan-
08
Mar
-08
May
-08
Jul-0
8
Wat
er (m
m)
Cum. evapotranspiration
Cum. net precipitation
Cum. precipitation
Cum. river discharge
EARSSatellite data for Climate Water and Food
Land component:2-dimensional diffusion processSurface & sub-surface flow
Q(t)
Ql(t)Ql(t)
Large Scale Hydrological Model (LSHM)
River flow component:Muskingum-Cunge routing
Q(t)
EWBMS Precipitation &Evapotranspiration
EARSSatellite data for Climate Water and Food
Wei River flow simulation
R2 = 0.75Vol. error = 4%
R2 = 0.80Vol. error = 11%
EARSSatellite data for Climate Water and Food
Wei River 24 hr forecast
RMSE = 110 m3/s RRMSE = 0.37
COE = 0.75 R2 = 0.79
EARSSatellite data for Climate Water and Food
Upper Yellow River
flow simulation
Station R2 Volumedifference
Jimai 0.80 +17.9 %
Maqu 0.82 - 0.61%
Jungong 0.80 + 0.61%
Tangnaihai 0.80 - 0.67%
EARSSatellite data for Climate Water and Food
RMSE = 161 m3/s RRMSE = 0.17
COE = 0.84 R2 = 0.93
Upper Yellow River 24 hr forecast
EARSSatellite data for Climate Water and Food
China national project evaluation
• Chinese high-level scientific commission
• “World leading level”
• 2nd Prize China Ministry of Water Resources
EARSSatellite data for Climate Water and Food
Niger Basin project
• Niger Basin Authority, Niamey, Niger• Co-funding Dutch government (ORIO)• Duration: 2012-2015• System implementation• Testing, calibration• Validation• Climate monitoring• Drought monitoring• River flow forecasting
EARSSatellite data for Climate Water and Food
Conclusions
• Operational monitoring system• Covers all Africa• Daily temporal resolution• 3 km spatial resolution• Applications in
– Climate change monitoring– River flow forecasting– Crop yield forecasting– Crop insurance
• Uniform and objective• Extensively validated• Cost effective
EARSSatellite data for Climate Water and Food
We propose…
• Africa Inter-Basin Implementation Project• Same low-cost Meteosat receivers• Same processing system (EWBMS-LSHM)• Joint training• Joint validation• Exchange of experience
EARSSatellite data for Climate Water and Food
Thank you for your attention
YR Flow Forecasting System report [email protected]
www.ears.nl