Climate Prediction CenterClimate Prediction Center Products, Services, Partnerships Products, Services, Partnerships

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Dr. Chet Koblinsky, DirectorDr. Chet Koblinsky, Director

NOAA Climate OfficeNOAA Climate Office

NOAA Climate ProgramNOAA Climate Program

Jim LaverJim Laver

Climate Prediction CenterClimate Prediction Center

www.cpc.ncep.noaa.govwww.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Climate Prediction CenterClimate Prediction Center

• Mission:Mission: CPC serves the public by assessing and CPC serves the public by assessing and predicting the impacts of short-term climate variability, predicting the impacts of short-term climate variability, emphasizing enhanced risks of weather related extreme emphasizing enhanced risks of weather related extreme events, for use in mitigating losses and maximizing events, for use in mitigating losses and maximizing economic gains.economic gains.

• Vision:Vision: To strive for “Climate Predictions” to be as To strive for “Climate Predictions” to be as reliable and applicable as weather predictions.reliable and applicable as weather predictions.

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Warnings & Alert Warnings & Alert CoordinationCoordination

WatchesWatches

ForecastsForecasts

Threats Assessments

GuidanceGuidance

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Forecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertaintyForecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertainty

MinutesMinutes

HoursHours

DaysDays

1 Week1 Week

2 Week2 Week

MonthsMonths

SeasonsSeasons

YearsYears

Initial Conditions

Boundary Conditions

NWS Seamless Forecast SuiteNWS Seamless Forecast Suiteand CPC’s Roleand CPC’s Role

CPC FY03 Budget

5.4 M - Climate Predictions and Assessments - Baseline

1.1 M - NOAA: OAR (COSP, OGP*); NWS/IA

1.0 M - Other Agencies (USAID, NASA)

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7.5 M - Total

* -- through proposals to PACS, GEWEX, GAPP, C2D2, NDSC

CPC Federal and Support StaffCPC Federal and Support Staff

Director’s OfficeDirector’s Office 44

Operations BranchOperations Branch 2525

Development BranchDevelopment Branch 2121

ContractorsContractors

UCAR, UMD; VisitorsUCAR, UMD; Visitors

2525

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TotalTotal 8080

Director’s OfficeDirector’s Office 4.954.95

Computer Systems and Resource ManagementComputer Systems and Resource Management 2.902.90

Diversity and Affirmative ActionDiversity and Affirmative Action 0.650.65

OutreachOutreach 4.404.40

Extended Range OutlooksExtended Range Outlooks 5.855.85

Seasonal OutlooksSeasonal Outlooks 3.103.10

Climate AssessmentsClimate Assessments 4.154.15

Droughts and FloodsDroughts and Floods 3.503.50

Observed and Satellite Estimated PrecipitationObserved and Satellite Estimated Precipitation 5.355.35

Data Base Maintenance and DevelopmentData Base Maintenance and Development 4.204.20

International ActivitiesInternational Activities 4.754.75

Interagency Partnerships (USDA, USAID, NASA,…)Interagency Partnerships (USDA, USAID, NASA,…) 11.7511.75

Model Diagnostics and Product DevelopmentModel Diagnostics and Product Development 7.907.90

Applied Research in Long-Range PredictionsApplied Research in Long-Range Predictions 4.254.25

Climate and HealthClimate and Health 0.550.55

Weather/Climate LinksWeather/Climate Links 4.404.40

Operational Product ReliabilityOperational Product Reliability 1.951.95

Analysis of Observed Surface Air TemperatureAnalysis of Observed Surface Air Temperature 1.001.00

CPC - NCEP Technical Operating Plan (NTOP)

Total75.60

Climate and WeatherClimate and Weather

Extreme EventsExtreme Events

Tropical StormsTropical Storms

Droughts/FloodsDroughts/Floods

TrendsTrends

Tropics - El Niño, La NiñaTropics - El Niño, La Niña

Extratropics - Jet PatternsExtratropics - Jet Patterns

Climate Change

Climate Change

WeatherWeather Climate Variability

Climate Variability

Climate Prediction Center ActivitiesClimate Prediction Center Activities• Monitoring (includes Climate “Nowcasting”)Monitoring (includes Climate “Nowcasting”)

• Outlooks (GPRA Measure - U.S. Seasonal Temp.)Outlooks (GPRA Measure - U.S. Seasonal Temp.)

• Applied ResearchApplied Research

• Dissemination – Internet, AWIPS, NAWIPSDissemination – Internet, AWIPS, NAWIPS

• Outreach – with NWS/OWWCS/CSD (Livezey)Outreach – with NWS/OWWCS/CSD (Livezey)

• Partnerships – Internal NOAA; ExternalPartnerships – Internal NOAA; External

• International ActivitiesInternational Activities

How CPC Improves the aboveHow CPC Improves the above

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Dissemination

Dynamical Models

Outlooks

Real-Time Obs Historical Data Base

CLIMO

MonitoringApplied Research

Statistical Models

User Feedback

How CPC’s 4 Major Activities IntegrateHow CPC’s 4 Major Activities Integrate

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Climate MonitoringClimate Monitoring

• State of Global OceansState of Global Oceans

• Global Precipitation and Surface Temperature Global Precipitation and Surface Temperature AnomaliesAnomalies

• Atmospheric CirculationAtmospheric Circulation

• DroughtDrought

• Stratospheric Circulation / OzoneStratospheric Circulation / Ozone

Climate MonitoringClimate Monitoring

                                                                                                               

                                                                              

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Climate OutlooksClimate Outlooks

• Tropical Pacific SSTsTropical Pacific SSTs

• Seasonal Precipitation and Temperature AnomaliesSeasonal Precipitation and Temperature Anomalies

• Monthly Precipitation and Temperature AnomaliesMonthly Precipitation and Temperature Anomalies

• Seasonal Drought OutlooksSeasonal Drought Outlooks

• Seasonal Hurricane OutlooksSeasonal Hurricane Outlooks

• Days 6-10 and 8-14 OutlooksDays 6-10 and 8-14 Outlooks

• Hazard Assessments – Day 3-14 – Weather/Climate Hazard Assessments – Day 3-14 – Weather/Climate ConnectionConnection

• UV IndexUV Index

Climate OutlooksClimate Outlooks

Official Sfc. Temp.

Seasonal Outlooks

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Climate OutlooksClimate Outlooks

• Tools for Seasonal/Monthly OutlooksTools for Seasonal/Monthly Outlooks

– Empirical (Regressions, Composites, Trends,…)Empirical (Regressions, Composites, Trends,…)

– Dynamical (Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Models)Dynamical (Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Models)

Improving Extended-range Predictions: Improving Extended-range Predictions: Challenges and IssuesChallenges and Issues

• Understanding “natural variability” in GPRA measureUnderstanding “natural variability” in GPRA measure

• Post-processing of model forecasts (i.e., calibrations); Multi-model Post-processing of model forecasts (i.e., calibrations); Multi-model ensemblesensembles

• Climate analysis – e.g., Reanalysis – Ongoing….OACSClimate analysis – e.g., Reanalysis – Ongoing….OACS

• Climate attribution – Reanalysis plat a key roleClimate attribution – Reanalysis plat a key role

• Model improvements for seasonal predictions Model improvements for seasonal predictions

• Sub-seasonal Predictions; Coupled model based MJO predictionsSub-seasonal Predictions; Coupled model based MJO predictions

• Statistical reliability of numerical forecastsStatistical reliability of numerical forecasts

• Computing and personnel supportComputing and personnel support

• OutreachOutreach

Measuring Success: U.S. Temperature SkillMeasuring Success: U.S. Temperature Skill

• GPRA Measure: 48-month running average of U. S. GPRA Measure: 48-month running average of U. S. seasonal temperature skill score reported on an annual seasonal temperature skill score reported on an annual basis.basis.

• A measure of NOAA’s investment in seasonal climate A measure of NOAA’s investment in seasonal climate variability efforts.variability efforts.

Actual Skill and GPRA

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Climate Outlook GPRA MeasureU.S. Seasonal Temperature Skill

0.5 Month Lead – 4 Year Run vs. GPRA Goal

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Seasonal Temperature GPRA MeasureSeasonal Temperature GPRA Measure

• Inherent ProblemInherent Problem: Intrinsic climate variability (and associated : Intrinsic climate variability (and associated fluctuations in seasonal predictability) does not permit a monotonic fluctuations in seasonal predictability) does not permit a monotonic increase in time-averaged skill . Therefore, fluctuations in GPRA increase in time-averaged skill . Therefore, fluctuations in GPRA measure are to be expected.measure are to be expected.

• AlternativesAlternatives::

– An GRPA measure which would be less sensitive to natural An GRPA measure which would be less sensitive to natural fluctuations in climate regimes and more sensitive to fluctuations in climate regimes and more sensitive to improvements in prediction methodologies improvements in prediction methodologies

– Improvements in seasonal prediction tools Improvements in seasonal prediction tools

• Implementation of next global coupled seasonal forecast system Implementation of next global coupled seasonal forecast system in FY04in FY04

Applied Climate ResearchApplied Climate Research

• Climate Diagnostics and AttributionClimate Diagnostics and Attribution

• TeleconnectionsTeleconnections

• Model DiagnosticsModel Diagnostics

• Atmospheric and Oceanic PredictabilityAtmospheric and Oceanic Predictability

• Prediction ToolsPrediction Tools

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Climate OutreachClimate Outreach

• Products Accessible via Internet/Web Products Accessible via Internet/Web

• OWWCS Climate Service Division ActivitiesOWWCS Climate Service Division Activities

• Annual Climate Diagnostics and Prediction WorkshopAnnual Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop

• Climate Diagnostics BulletinClimate Diagnostics Bulletin

• Annual Climate ReviewAnnual Climate Review

• Press Releases and Press ConferencesPress Releases and Press Conferences

• USDA; USAID; USGS; FEMA; DoDUSDA; USAID; USGS; FEMA; DoD

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Climate OutreachClimate Outreach

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PartnershipsPartnerships

• NWSNWS

– EMC (dynamical seasonal predictions; week-2 outlooks; Reanalysis – Ongoing Analysis of the Climate System)

– TPC (Hurricane Season Outlooks)

– HPC (International Desks, WX/CX connection/hazards, HydroMet Testbed)

– OPC and SPC (Hazards Assessments)

– Climate Services Division (outreach; user feedback; identifying user needs; education)

– WFOs – (drought, product dissemination/interpretation )

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PartnershipsPartnerships

• NOAANOAA

– CDC (seasonal outlooks; week-2 outlooks; climate monitoring; ENSO outlooks; climate variability research; climate attribution and Reanalysis….; MOU)

– GFDL (global ocean models; ocean data assimilation; climate attribution)

– NCDC (climate monitoring; drought monitoring and outlooks; annual climate summaries; MOU)

– OGP (applied research support; ARCs)

– AOML (Seasonal Hurricane Outlooks)22

NCEP-CDC Collaboration – D+8 Temp Skill

PartnershipsPartnerships• Inter-agency

– USDA (drought monitoring and outlooks; global crop monitoring related Wx/Cx support; Crop Bulletin)

– NASA/GMAO (seasonal and intraseasonal outlooks; Ozone monitoring)

– EPA (ultraviolet monitoring and forecasts)

– DoD (ultraviolet monitoring)

– FEMA (seasonal and extended-range forecasts)

– USAID (humanitarian support; climate monitoring)

– DoE (heating/cooling degree days)23

PartnershipsPartnerships

• External

– IRI (dynamical forecasts/tools; Advisory Board)

– COLA; U WA; Scripps; COAPS (seasonal outlooks; applied research)

– Bi-lateral agreements (China, Korea, Vietnam)

– Canada; Mexico (North American Drought Monitor; North American Monsoon Eexperiment)

– WMO (ENSO outlooks; Int’l Regional Climate Centers)

– International Desks (African Desk, South American,….)

– Pacific (Monthly New Zealand/PR conference calls)24

Other International ActivitiesOther International Activities

• Global Precipitation Climatology ProjectGlobal Precipitation Climatology Project

• Climate/Weather Hazards– Africa, Central America, Climate/Weather Hazards– Africa, Central America, SW Asia - USAID Humanitarian Effort SW Asia - USAID Humanitarian Effort

• Mekong and Yellow River rainfall estimationMekong and Yellow River rainfall estimation

• Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Climate Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Climate NetworkNetwork

• WMO expert team on verification and heat/health WMO expert team on verification and heat/health warningswarnings

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Climate OutlooksClimate Outlooks

• Users of Climate OutlooksUsers of Climate Outlooks

– Water Resources ManagersWater Resources Managers

– Energy Production ManagersEnergy Production Managers

– Retailing BusinessRetailing Business

– Emergency ManagersEmergency Managers

– AgricultureAgriculture

– RecreationRecreation

– Weather DerivativesWeather Derivatives17