climate data: diagnosis, prediction and projection...climate data: diagnosis, prediction and...
TRANSCRIPT
© Climate Service Center Germany
Climate Data: Diagnosis, Prediction and Projection
Paul Bowyer ([email protected])Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS)
Boram Lee ([email protected])World Meteorological Organization (WMO), World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)
Group of Experts on Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation for Transport Networks and Nodes(7 June 2018, Geneva, Switzerland)
© Climate Service Center Germany
World Meteorological Organization
• UN Specialized Agency on weather, climate & water
• 191 Members, HQ in Geneva
• 2nd oldest UN Agency, since 1873
• Coordinates work of ~5000 national experts from meteorological services, hydrological services and academia
• Co‐Founder and host agency of IPCC (1st World Climate Conference)
• Co‐Founder of UNFCCC (2nd World Climate Conference)
© Climate Service Center Germany
WMO Strategic Priorities 2017‐2023
UN level
• Climate expertise
• Disaster expertise
• El Niño/La Niña
• Partnerships with international organizations
Organizational level
• Public‐Private partnership, definition of roles
• Visibility of WMO & NMHS: climate, disasters, water resources
© Climate Service Center Germany
The World Climate Research Programme
© Climate Service Center Germany
WMO: Annual State of Climate
© Climate Service Center Germany
WMO: Annual State of Climate
UN level
• Climate expertise
• Disaster expertise
• El Niño/La Niña
• Partnerships with international organizations
Organizational level
• Public‐Private partnership, definition of roles
• Visibility of WMO & NMHS: climate, disasters, water resources
© Climate Service Center Germany
WMO: Annual State of Climate
© Climate Service Center Germany
Weather risks are the top economic risks…
World Economic Forum, Davos: Global Risk Landscape 2018
• Extreme weather events• Natural disasters• Failure of climate-change
mitigation and adaptation
© Climate Service Center Germany
What the weather will be What (damage) it will do
© Climate Service Center Germany
Weather to Climate: Seamless Framework
Forecast uncertaintyForecast uncertainty
Minutes
Hours
Days
1 Week
2 Weeks
Months
Seasons
YearsDecades
Centuries
Weather forecasting
Climate predictions
Climate scenarios and projections
Fore
cast
lead
tim
e
Socioeconomic benefits
Warnings andalert
coordination
Warnings andalert
coordination
WatchesWatches
ScenariosScenarios
OutlooksOutlooks
GuidanceGuidance
Threat assessment
Threat assessment
ForecastsForecasts
Adapted from NOAA, 2011
© Climate Service Center Germany
Climate information on different spatial scales
Figure source: David Viner, CRU, University of East Anglia, UK
1) Global assessments:Global General Circulation Models, e.g. ~300 km to ~100 km
2) National or continental scale assessments:Global General Circulation ModelsRegional Climate Models, on e.g. ~50 km
3) Regional (subcontinental) assessment:Regional Climate Models, on ~50 km to ~10 km
4) Local assessment: (Non‐hydrostatic) Regional Climate Models, on ~1 km to ~100 mStatistical downscalingCombined approaches of dynamic & statistical downscaling
© Climate Service Center Germany
Climate information on different spatial scales
Figure source: David Viner, CRU, University of East Anglia, UK
1) Global assessments:Global General Circulation Models, e.g. ~300 km to ~100 km
2) National or continental scale assessments:Global General Circulation ModelsRegional Climate Models, on e.g. ~50 km
© Climate Service Center Germany
Climate information on different spatial scales
Figure source: David Viner, CRU, University of East Anglia, UK
The Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment
3) Regional (subcontinental) assessment:Regional Climate Models, on ~50 km to ~10 km
4) Local assessment: (Non‐hydrostatic) Regional Climate Models, on ~1 km to ~100 mStatistical downscalingCombined approaches of dynamic & statistical downscaling
© Climate Service Center Germany
Climate information on different spatial scales
Figure source: David Viner, CRU, University of East Anglia, UK
The Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment
• 14 domains or areas where simulations are available• Number of simulations varies regionally, and by RCP• Data are available
© Climate Service Center Germany
Climate information on different spatial scales
Figure source: David Viner, CRU, University of East Anglia, UK
CORDEX Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluations (CORE)
• Standardized set of simulations for most CORDEX domains to serve as a basis for further downscaling
• CMIP5 downscaled for RCPs 2.6 and 8.5, CMIP5 1970‐2100
• Minimum 3 GCMs; high‐, low– and midrange
• Some institutions/RCMs run globally, others regionally, ESD contribution
• CORE Atlas based on 25 km resolution
© Climate Service Center Germany
RCM ~25KmObs ~ 55KmGCM ~200Km
mm/day
Monsoon precipitation JJAS
More realistic monsoon precipitation in RCM simulations(mean of 3 RCMs driven by 2 GCMs, 1970‐1999) Source: Pankaj Kumar, High Noon Project, MPI‐M
GCM, RCM, observation differences
© Climate Service Center Germany
Provided Climate Data
As the first‐step demonstration to cover the whole UNECE region:Global Climate Model (GCM, ~200km resolution) data relating to 9 relevant climate variables and indices for transport structure• Annual precipitation (pr)
• Annual maximum temperature (Tasmax)
• Annual maximum consecutive 5 day precipitation (rx5day)
• Annual count of days when precipitation is greater than 10 mm (r10mm)
• Annual count of days when precipitation is greater than 20mm (r20mm)
• % of days when daily maximum temperature is greater than the 90th percentile in the baseline reference period (1971‐2000) (tx90p)
• % of days when daily maximum temperature is less than the 10th percentile in the baseline (tx10p)
• % of days when daily minimum temperature is greater than the 90th percentile in the baseline (tn90p). Calculated on an annual basis.
• % of days when daily minimum temperature is less than the 10th percentile in the baseline (tn10p). Calculated on an annual basis.
© Climate Service Center Germany
Provided Climate Data
For a period of 2051‐2080, from a reference time period of 1971‐2000
From 2 emissions scenarios within the CMIP5 ensemble• RCP 2.6 (major reduction in greenhouse gas emissions), and • RCP 8.5 (‘business as usual’)
© Climate Service Center Germany
Spare slides
© Climate Service Center Germany
© Climate Service Center Germany
WCRP Coordinates international climate research to develop, share and apply the climate knowledge that contributes to societal well‐being.
Science for UnderstandingScience for Impact
The World Climate Research Programme
The Next Decade
© Climate Service Center Germany
Fundamental science is needed to improve understanding. Understanding prepares society for the challenges we cannot foresee.Imbalances in the fluxes of
energy, water, carbon and other climate‐relevant compounds
Understanding and pushing limits to predictability of the climate system
Understanding and predicting sensitivities of climate stresses
…
The New World Climate Research Programme
© Climate Service Center Germany
Scientific partnerships across science communities are critical: Capacity and infrastructure
developmentConsistent support for critical
work e.g. CMIPWider partnerships – social sciences, governments, industry, civil society – are critical for climate science to service society. Co‐production of knowledge, co‐
design of solutionsConnecting global to local scales
for adaptation
The New World Climate Research Programme
© Climate Service Center Germany
Effect of 1°C temperature increase on per capita output
Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlo
© Climate Service Center Germany
Projected change in heat waves
Increase in number of heatwaves in southern Europein both RCPs
Projected changes of heat waves 2071–2100 vs. 1971–2000
Jacob et al. (2014)
Heat waves:Periods of more than 3 consecutive days exceeding the 99th percentile of the daily maximum temperature of the May to September season for the control period (1971–2000).
© Climate Service Center Germany
Projected change in heavy precipitation
Up to 45 % increase in large areas in winter in Northern and Eastern Europe No decrease besides isolated regions in Southern Europe (mostly along coastlines)
RCP8.5: Projected changes of heavy precipitation 2071–2100 vs. 1971–2000
Jacob et al. (2014)
Heavy precipitation: 95th percentile of daily precipitation (only days with precipitation 1 mm/day are considered)
© Climate Service Center Germany
Sources of uncertainty in climate model projections
Source: Hawkins & Sutton 2009
© Climate Service Center Germany
GCM analysis: change in annual maximum temperature
© Climate Service Center Germany
GCM analysis: change in annual maximum temperature
© Climate Service Center Germany
GCM analysis: change in annual maximum temperature
© Climate Service Center Germany
GCM analysis: change in annual precipitation
© Climate Service Center Germany
GCM analysis: change in annual precipitation
© Climate Service Center Germany
GCM analysis: change in annual precipitation
© Climate Service Center Germany
GCM analysis: change in % of days when maximum temperature is greater than the 90th percentile
© Climate Service Center Germany
GCM analysis: change in % of days when maximum temperature is greater than the 90th percentile
© Climate Service Center Germany
GCM analysis: change in % of days when maximum temperature is greater than the 90th percentile
© Climate Service Center Germany
Acknowledgement
The GCM maps were produced using the KNMI Climate Change Atlas
https://climexp.knmi.nl/plot_atlas_form.py
Thanks to Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, KNMI.