Climate Change Service

Climate Change

ClimateChange

T h e   C 3 S   m i s s i o n

To support European adaptation and mitigation policies by:

• Providing consistent and authoritative information about climate

• Building on existing capabilities and infrastructures (nationally, in Europe and worldwide)

• Stimulating the market for climate services in Europe

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A c c e s s   t o   p a s t ,   p r e s e n t   a n d   f u t u r e   c l i m a t e   i n f o rm a t i o n

Earth system m

odelsEarth system

 models

Earth system m

odels

Observations and climate reanalyses

Seasonal forecast data and products

Climate model simulations

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C3S:  Reanalysis  based  Essential  Climate  Variables  (30km  global  ERA5)

Reflects variations in: • ingested observing system• flow‐dependent sensitivity

Spread in Surface Pressure (hPa)

January 1979

July 2014

Uncertainty estimate

Hourly data and increased number of  parameters

Courtesy: Philip Brohan

Credit: H. Hersbach, ECMWF

ERA5Almost complete!

(1979/2017)

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C 3 S :   E O   b a s e d   E s s e n t i a l   C l i m a t e   V a r i a b l e s

Heritage/coordination:

• ESA CCI

• EUMETSAT SAFs

• Other Copernicus Services

• etc..

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C 3 S   a n d   i n ‐ s i t u   o b s e r v a t i o n s

• EO  ‐ Lot  1:  C3S  data  rescue

• EO  ‐ Lot  2:  Observations  from  global  cl imate  data  archives

• EO  ‐Lot  3:  Observations  from  Baseline  and  Reference  Networks

• EO  ‐ Lot  4:  High‐resolution  ECV  products  for  Europe  

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Credit: Victor & Kennel, Nature Climate Change, 2014.

Climate indicators Trend

Surface temperature

Greenhouse gases

Rain

Sea Ice

Glaciers

Sea Level

Soil Moisture

C 3 S :  O p e r a t i o n a l   p r o d u c t i o n   o f   c l i m a t e   i n d i c a t o r s

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Monthly State of Climate

Climate drivers:• Greenhouse gases, aerosols,

…

Climate impacts:• Temperature, precipitation, sea-ice,

sea level, etc.

Sea-ice cover for April 2017. The pink line denotes the climatological ice edge for April for the period 1981-2010. Source: ERA-Interim

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C 3 S   s e a s o n a l   f o r e c a s t s

Aim: to generate seasonal forecast products based on the best information available, to an operational schedule, and make them publicly available. 

Horizontal grid: global 1deg x 1degEnsemble size:

• Forecasts: ~50 members• Hindcasts: ~25 members x 24 years (1993‐2016)

Variables• Surface

• 7 vars every 6h • +30 vars every 24h

• Pressure (11 levels, from 925 hPa to 10 hPa)• 8 vars every 12 h

Agreed netCDF specification C3S‐0.1 (based on CF)

control Evaluation and qualitycontrol

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S e a s o n a l   f o r e c a s t s ‐ c u r r e n t   c o n t e n t s

Variables:• sea-level pressure• geopotential height• precipitation• air temperature

Type of plots:• maps:

• global• pre-defined

regions

• time series

Publication schedule:• monthly updates• published on each

13th (new feature!!)

http://climate.copernicus.eu/seasonal-forecasts

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S e a s o n a l   f o r e c a s t s ‐ S W   I n d i a n   O c e a n

Anomaly correlation – SST, NINO3.4Start date: 1 JanuaryTarget period: monthly means, all months of the January forecast

Anomaly correlation - precipitationStart date: 1 January

Target season: February-April

Met Office

Météo-France system 5

ECMWF System 4

Multi-model combination

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Climate projections

Service: Providing users with timely access to climate change scenarios produced with state-of-the-art climate models (CMIP, CORDEX)

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Climate projections

Service: Providing users with timely access to climate change scenarios produced with state-of-the-art climate models (CMIP, CORDEX)

How:

Global climate projections:• Access to ESGF via the Climate Data Store (C3S_34a Lot 1)• Multi-model global product generation (C3S_34a Lot 2)• Reference set of climate projections for Europe (C3S_34a Lot 3)

Regional climate projections:• Access to CORDEX simulations for the European domain (C3S_34b

Lot 1)• Production of additional climate projections for Europe (C3S_34b Lot 2)

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C3S   i s  an  opera t iona l   re sponse   to  GCOS  and   t akes  an   i n c reas ing    ro le   i n  cont r ibu t ing   to   the  WMO  S ta te  of   the  C l imate

From the GCOS Website

From the WMO and UNFCCC Websites

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C 3 S   a n d   U N F C C C   S u s t a i n a b l e   D e v e l o p m e n t   G o a l sC3S contribution to SDGs

C3S SIS addresses agriculture, and some of the global services will focus on food security

C3S SIS addresses health, providing relevant climate change indicators

Two Proof-of-concept SIS projects in C3S dedicated to water management. A urban PoC SIS is also addressing

this SDG at city level. Operationalisation underwayTwo proof-of-concept SIS projects in C3S dedicated to the Energy Sector. Reanalyses (produced by C3S) are

also highly relevant.

C3S activities contribute indirectly to this SDG insofar that the energy climate impact indicators (see goal 7)

are relevant.C3S is working closely with the standardisation

community (via DG-CLIMA) on developing climate change information required for the writing of standards

in infrastructure and transport.

C3S contribution to SDGs

C3S SIS related to urban aspects of climate change, as well as health and infrastructure

aspects, contribute indirectly to this SDG. Reanalysis products too.

C3S SIS products and indicators on water management are directly relevant for this goal.

ECV products, including from reanalysis, CDRs, seasonal forecasts and climate scenarios,

directly relevant for adaptation. The SIS also delivers relevant indicators in support of

adaptation. Cooperation: EEA Climate ADAPTSome of the ECV products generated by C3S

(including reanalysis ORAS5) are ocean relevant. This is done in coordination with

CMEMS.Biodiversity is a future sectoral application of C3S. Relevant products will contribute to this goal. ECV products on soil moisture, forestry,

lakes, also contribute to this goal.

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Sectoral Information System

Proof-of-concepts with end-to-end demonstrators

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Preliminary results: vines

Predicted harvest date advances by 18 days (RCP4.5) and 32 days (RCP8.5)

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S e a s o n a l f o r e c a s t s   f o r   w i n d   i n d i c a t o r s

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S h o w   C a s e s  w o r l d w i d e   ( C 3 S _ 4 2 2 _ L o t 1 _ S M H I )

• Story mapping• Technical reports (scripts, tools and workflows)• Added value among clients in climate adaptation

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4 data product groups:1. Climate forcing data for crop models 

• all time scales, downscaled, bias corrected2. Water based indicators

• Soil moisture, groundwater recharge, reservoir inflow, river flow, ET, SPI, ...

3. Agroclimatic indicators• Growing degree days, huglin index, cold/heat stress days, insect flight index, ...

4. Climate enhanced EarthObservation based indicators• Dry Matter Productivity, ETactual, ...

C l i m a t e   I n d i c a t o r s   r e l a t e d   t o   A g r i c u l t u r e  

All aggregated to crop specific • phenological

calendars• growing areas

C3S_422_Lot1_WEnR

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Sectoral Information System

As an operational Service, C3Sambitions to become an enabler of downstream climate services, by providing or brokering high quality and sector relevant climate data, good practices, tools and compelling use cases.

Proof-of-concepts of climate services: Demonstration of the value chain with end-to-end demonstrators

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A   o n e ‐ s t o p   C l i m a t e  D a t a   S t o r e

We have built a store. 

We are putting products on the shelves.

The door has been opened to customers (June 2018).

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C l i m a t e   D a t a   S t o r e   – C D S

The CDS contains observations, global and regional climate reanalyses, global and regional climate projections and seasonal forecasts. It also contains generic and sectoral climate indicators.

The CDS is designed as a distributed system, providing improved access to existing datasets through a unified web interface

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C 3 S   i n f r a s t r u c t u r eCD S   c o n c e p t :  A c c e s s   t o   t o o l s ,  wo r k f l ow s   a n d   a p p l i c a t i o n s

The CDS and its Tool Box allows managing and handling “climate objects” in a seamless way and within a unified environment.

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T h e   C l i m a t e   D a t a   S t o r e

The CDS portal

Accessing ERA5 from the CDS

catalogue

The CDS toolbox editor

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E v a l u a t i o n   a n d  Qu a l i t y   C o n t r o l   ( E Q C )   f o r   t h e   CD S

Quality of data• Assessments• User guidance• Gaps and limitations

Quality of tools• Fitness for purpose• Best practices

Quality of service• Speed,

responsiveness• System availability,

…

data quality 

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C 3 S   a n d   t h e   e c o s y s t e m

EEA (Climate Adapt):• State of Climate for Europe• Climate Indicators• CDS toolbox• CC IV reportDG-Clima GFCS:

• Global products (ECVs, reanalyses, seasonal forecasts and projections)

• WIS compliance• Training and outreach• Global SIS• Liaison with RCCs

H2020/ERA4CS/JPI/KIC/etc.:• CDS as a data resource• Liaison with RD projects• Underpinning scienceCoordination with DG-DEvCO

GEO & UNFCCC:• C3S discoverable

through GEOSS portal

• Contribution to many SDGs

National Climate Services• Value chain at local level,

governments, etc.• Provision of pan-European

dimension for national businesses

etc…

WMO & GCOS:• C3S ECVs and

global indicators

• WMO State of the Climate

NOAA:• Coordination on observations

and CDR issues with NCEI• In-kind contribution of NCEP

seasonal forecasts

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C o n c l u s i o n s• C3S has developed a state-of-the-art cloud infrastructure that makes it simple for users to

freely access an unprecedented range of quality-controlled climate data and information.

• C3S serves a wide range of European and worldwide users and bodies: EU DGs, WMO, GCOS, GFCS, EEA, etc.

• The Climate Data Store provides a compute layer allowing users to create and run their own applications/workflows on the cloud without downloading huge volumes of data.

• The system comes with a series of exemplar applications to show how the infrastructure can be used to address specific user needs:

• SISs (Europe, Global), Use Cases, Demonstrators• Downstream Services

• Training (including training the trainers) is now becoming an important component of the Service

• The Quality Assurance process within C3S is unique and absolutely critical