climate change issue brief new york state energy plan 2009€¦ · state energy policy and climate...

Climate Change Issue Brief

New York State Energy Plan 2009

December 2009

1 Overview

The central challenge for New York energy planners is enabling a transition to an energy system with very low greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in time to do the Statersquos part to prevent the most severe impacts of climate change while maintaining the Statersquos reliable energy systems and economic competitiveness

In a sustainable energy system GHG sources and sinks1 would maintain atmospheric GHG concentrations at levels that protect human health and the environment In this respect New Yorkrsquos traditional energy system is unsustainable because fossil fuel combustion emits heat-trapping GHGs that build up in the atmosphere and the excess heat these gases retain is altering the climate

To stabilize GHG concentrations in the atmosphere emissions must approach a state of equilibrium ndash that is sources of GHGs must be in balance with sinks The higher the atmospheric concentration at which GHGs stabilize the greater the average global temperature increase and the resultant changes in the Earthrsquos climate Scientists believe that it is possible to stabilize atmospheric GHGs at a level that will avoid the most severe impacts of climate change though since the majority of New Yorkrsquos GHGs are emitted in the generation and use of energy this will require fundamental changes in how the State generates and uses energy

11 Why the State Must Respond to Climate Change

Combusting fossil fuels ie coal petroleum and natural gas transforms carbon that long has been sequestered beneath the ground into the GHG carbon dioxide (CO2) CO2 retains heat in the atmosphere which alters the Earthrsquos energy balance warms the planet and changes its climate Since the Industrial Revolution as fossil fuel use became widespread atmospheric CO2 levels have risen to more than one-third above pre-industrial levels with observable climate effects As developing nations expand their use of fossil-fuels the added emissions further accelerate climatic changes

Although understanding of the Earthrsquos climate system is imperfect its climate is sufficiently well understood for science to predict that continued unabated combustion of the Earthrsquos fossil fuels will cause dramatic and potentially catastrophic changes to the climate system Additional uncertainties about how well the natural world and human society can adapt to climate change increase the complexity of determining the ultimate impacts of climate change

Yet the outlines of the future are there to see Climate change threatens both human societies and natural biodiversity it is expected to significantly alter the environment that supported the development of human civilization In some geographic areas climate change may bring near-term positive effects such as increasing the length of growing seasons in high-latitude regions However most of the projected impacts to human and biological communities are negative and some pose serious threats

1 Sinks are natural and possibly human-enhanced processes that remove GHGs from the atmosphere

1


Preeminent scientific organizations2 have concluded that climate change may result in extinction of many plant and animal species inundation by rising sea levels of a significant fraction of the Earthrsquos coastal communities and ecosystems and increases in extreme weather events More than one-sixth of the worldrsquos drinking water supply is fed by meltwater from snow or glaciers the likely continued reductions in water available from these sources will compound the worldwide scarcity of drinking water In some regions of the world such as the African Sahel and areas of Bangladesh many human settlements may become uninhabitable due to changes in precipitation or sea level rise The resulting large population migrations and competition for resources could destabilize societies and economies

In New York average temperatures are rising Spring bloom occurs a week earlier on average than 30 years ago and there is an observable northward shift both of plant hardiness zones and of the occurrence of certain wildlife and plant species While future climate change may help a few sectors of New Yorkrsquos economy such as by increasing yields and crop variety in certain types of agriculture and decreasing winter heating needs it will impose economic burdens for example increasing consumer food costs due to climate change impacts on agriculture

12 Magnitude of the Challenge

The atmospheric concentration at which GHGs stabilize and the trajectory to that level will determine the amount of additional anthropogenic or human-caused warming that will occur both in New York and globally Based on scientific assessments from the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) several US states and developed nations have selected a goal of reducing GHG emissions by 80 percent below 1990 levels by the year 2050 (lsquo80 by 50rsquo)3 President Barack Obama supports the US House of Representatives recently passed American Clean Energy and Security Act which has proposed a national climate action plan to reduce emissions by 83 percent below 2005 levels by 20504

Scientists conclude that the world will be on a path to minimize the most severe future impacts of climate change and reduce attendant costs to society only if the developed world reduces emissions at a rate that achieves an 80 percent reduction in GHG emissions by mid-century and developing countries begin to reduce emissions in the near future By working to achieve the levels of reductions suggested by science New York would do its fair share to protect the Earthrsquos natural resources and the millions of people vulnerable to climatic changes Implementing policies to achieve such momentous GHG reductions could promote the well-being of the people of New York and provide New Yorkrsquos citizens with the opportunities to benefit from the new clean energy economy

13 State Energy Policy and Climate Change

New York already has begun to deal with climate challenge through innovative cost-effective policies and programs such as the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) stricter automobile GHG emission standards and Governor David A Patersonrsquos lsquo45 by 15rsquo program for expanding efficiency measures and

2 Examples include the United Nations-sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) US National Academies of Sciences and the American Geophysical Union 3 For example eight of the ten states in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) have adopted GHG goals consistent with lsquo80 by 50rsquo 4 The American Clean Energy and Security Act passed the House on June 26 2009

2


renewable energy generation State incentives are working in concert with federal programs to increase market penetration of alternative energy technologies and to promote emission reductions

To reduce emissions 80 percent by 2050 (lsquo80 by 50rsquo) the State would need to expand beyond current efforts implementing long-term strategies to further reduce GHG emissions Decisions on how the State produces and uses energy represent choices between mitigating global climate change and continuing on an unsustainable path Energy decisions in relation to power plants factories and buildings can have an impact on achieving lsquo80 by 50rsquo and these decisions must take into account the long-term impact of capital assets While the development of the low-carbon energy system that would allow New York to meet 80 percent GHG reduction by mid-century is possible the transition to that system will present both tremendous opportunities and difficult challenges

131 Opportunities and Costs of reducing GHG emissions

Currently available strategies for meeting 80 by 50 provide examples of the long-term economic opportunities that flow from reducing GHG emissions as well as of the short-term energy savings Energy efficiency is a way to reduce GHG emissions and total energy costs even if energy prices rise in a carbon-constrained economy Other strategies may require greater investment but must be evaluated in the context of the potentially far-greater costs of inaction5

Reducing GHG emissions 80 percent by 2050 will require fundamentally transforming how we obtain and use energy not only in the electric generation sector but also in transportation buildings and industry It is likely that any pathway to lsquo80 by 50rsquo will include de-carbonization of the electric generation sector along with a shift to low-carbon-intensity electricity as a key carrier for energy used in transportation buildings and industry

Development of State energy policies offers a unique platform for integrating and coordinating emission reductions in diverse energy sectors The State Energy Plan recommends a climate planning process to meet GHG reduction goals and promotes key interim GHG reduction policies including policies that increase energy efficiency and reduce the amount of energy we need and programs that promote the development and deployment of technologies to generate store and transmit energy generated from low-carbon or near-zero-carbon sources6

5 On a global scale the Stern Review concluded that the economic costs of strong and early action are less than the economic costs of climate impact The Stern Review recommended urgent immediate and sharp reductions in GHG emissions If no action is taken the overall costs and risks of climate change will be equivalent to losing at least five percent of global GDP each year now and forever If a wider range of risks and impacts is taken into account the estimates could rise to 20 percent of GDP or more In contrast the costs of reducing GHG emissions to avoid the worst impacts of climate change can be limited to around one percent of global GDP each year From The Economics of Climate Change the Stern Report Cambridge University Press 2007 William Nordhaus from Yale University Department of Economics analyzed the Stern Review and conducted his own economic modeling to calculate the costs and benefits of reducing GHG emissions to mitigate climate change (Nordhaus W Critical Assumptions in the Stern Review on Climate Change Science 2007) Although Nordhaus used a similar economic model the results were different from the Stern Review because Nordhaus used a different social discount rate for calculating the benefits of reducing CO2 emissions Both researchers concluded that there are economic benefits to mitigating climate change but Nordhausrsquo results support less aggressive reductions in the near term 6 The terms low-carbon or near-zero-carbon are used qualitatively in this brief to refer to energy sources whose carbon intensity (CO2 emitted per unit of energy) is significantly lower than that of traditional fossil fuel combustion These energy sources include sustainable and renewable energy (such as solar hydroelectric biomass wind and geothermal power) nuclear power and energy produced by processes that capture and sequester most of the CO2 emitted from fossil fuel combustion

3


132 New Yorkrsquos Response to Climate Change Can Boost its Economic Prospects

Transformation of our fossil fuel economy into a clean energy economy will be the work of a generation involving large numbers of investors and workers diverse skills and action and support by both public and private sectors To economically and socially optimize this necessary transition as recommended in Volume 1 of this Plan New York will initiate a Climate Action Plan to evaluate and recommend both short-term changes and fundamental long-term structural actions that would be needed to reach 80 percent reduction in GHGs by 2050 and ultimately to achieve a sustainable energy system

While New Yorkrsquos transformation will require significant public and private investment these changes involve the kinds of projects that historically have triggered significant growth in New York Investment in low-carbon power generation and energy efficiency technologies can position the State to compete successfully in a carbon-constrained world By initiating programs like RGGI and further investing in energy efficiency and low-carbon-intensity energy generation New York will position itself and its businesses for superior competitiveness in a low-carbon marketplace With support and encouragement from State government New Yorkrsquos clean energy economy is poised for growth

4

2 Climate Change and Its Impacts

21 Why the Climate is Changing

Relatively small increases in average global temperature can cause large changes in the Earthrsquos climate system Warming of the Earth is unequivocal documented by observations of higher global average air land surface and ocean temperatures widespread melting of snow and ice a nd rising global average sea level7 During the 20th c entury average global surface temperature rose by more than one degree Fahrenheit The 10 warmest years in the period of instrumental measurements which dates back to 1880 all occur within the 12-year period of 1997 to 20088 Recent climate change projections indicate a median probability of global surface warming of 93degF (52degC) by 2100 with a 90 percent probability range of 63degF (35degC) to 133degF (74 degC)9

Figure 1 shows observations of a significant rise in (a) global average surface temperature and (b) global average sea level from tide gauge (blue) and satellite (red) data and a decline in (c) Northern Hemisphere snow cover for March-April

7 Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) Climate Change 2007 Synthesis Report Summary for Policymakers 2007 httpwwwipccchpublications_and_datapublications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_synthesis_reporthtm 8 NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies Global Temperature Trends 2008 Annual Summation 2009 httpdatagissnasagovgistemp2008 9 Sokolov AP Stone PH Forest CE Prinn R Sarofim MC Webster M Paltsev S Schlosser CA Kicklighter D Dutkiewicz S Reilly J Wang C Felzer B Melillo J and Jacoby HD Probabilistic Forecast for 21st Century Climate Based on Uncertainties in Emissions (Without Policy) and Climate Parameters Journal of Climate 2009 httpglobalchangemitedufilesdocumentMITJPSPGC_Rpt169pdf

5


Figure 1 Observed Changes in Temperature Sea Level Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover

Source IPCC Climate Change 2007 Synthesis Report Summary for Policymakers

211 Much of Current Climate Change is Attributable to Increasing Atmospheric GHGs

Anthropogenic CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels to propel vehicles generate electricity and heat and operate homes and businesses are the most significant cause of recent warming Other important contributors are CO2 emissions from land-use changes such as tropical deforestation and emissions of the GHGs methane and nitrous oxide which are primarily from agriculture Man-made fluorinated or F-gases including hydrofluorocarbons perfluorocarbons and sulfur hexafluoride are powerful greenhouse gases used in industry released at low levels which contribute a relatively small amount to observed warming Particulate emissions (black carbon) from the combustion of fossil fuels and biomass while short-lived in the atmosphere also contribute to climate change

As shown in Figure 2 global annual emissions of anthropogenic GHGs have increased significantly since pre-industrial times with a large and rapid increase of 70 percent between 1970 and 2004 There is strong scientific evidence that these emissions are significant contributors to the observed warming ndash natural climate variability alone cannot account for the rapid rise in global temperatures observed in

6


recent decades A United Nations panel has concluded that atmospheric concentrations of CO2 (379 ppm) and methane (1774 ppb) in 2005 far exceeded the natural range over at least the last 650000 years10

Figure 2 Global Emissions of Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gases 1970 to 2004

212 Scientific Documentation of Anthropogenic Climate Change

Much of the scientific evidence relating to climate change effects has been collected and analyzed by the IPCC a scientific body established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Program Under the IPCC more than 2500 scientists from around the world review studies conducted by climate scientists and draw important conclusions from the data about what is happening to the Earthrsquos climate and what is likely to happen in the future Appendix A summarizes the IPCC findings along with information from the US Climate Change Science Program and the World Health Organization

In 2007 the IPCC concluded that

[m]ost of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th

century is very likely (greater than 90 percent certainty) due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations11 Discernible human influences now

10 IPCC Climate Change 2007 The Physical Science Basis Summary for Policymakers 2007 httpwwwipccchpublications_and_datapublications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_wg1_report_the_physical_science_basis htm 11 IPCC Climate Change 2007 Synthesis Report Summary for Policymakers 2007

7


extend to other aspects of climate including ocean warming continental-average temperatures temperature extremes and wind patterns

A comparison of the Earths observed temperatures over the last century with historical temperature projections calculated by global climate models show that most of the warming from the 1950s to the present was caused by heat-trapping emissions from human activities and that these emissions currently are driving the climate about three times more strongly than they did in the 1950s Only when climate forcings12 from anthropogenic GHG emissions are included with naturally-occurring forcings can climate models accurately reproduce historical temperature change13

Other preeminent scientific institutions have consistently concluded that the Earth is warming and that human activities are largely responsible For example a joint statement from the national scientific academies14 which includes the US National Academy of Sciences concludes ldquoIt is likely that most of the warming in recent decades can be attributed to human activities This warming has already led to changes in the Earths climaterdquo

22 Climate Change Impacts in New York

221 Observed Climate Change

Analysis of temperature data from 73 climate stations shows the New England-New York region warmed approximately 20degF (11degC) during the 20th century nearly twice as great as the global change in average temperature15 The Statersquos climate has begun to change taking on some characteristics of the climate associated with states south of New York16

222 Projected Climate Change Impacts

Climate change threatens the Statersquos natural resources and economy and the health and lifestyle of its residents The recent Climate Change in the US Northeast study which was the product of collaborative research by 40 independent scientists assessed how global warming may affect the Northeastrsquos climate in the future Using global climate model projections the study compared projected climate change impacts resulting from a higher emissions scenario in which GHG emissions continue to grow rapidly with the impacts from a lower emissions scenario that assumes resource-efficient technologies and less reliance on fossil fuels Appendix B details the studyrsquos projections of the significant impacts in New York for both emission scenarios17

12 Climate forcings are factors that increase or decrease the energy in the climate system 13 IPCC Climate Change 2001 The Scientific Basis 2001 httpwwwipccchipccreportstarwg1indexphpidp=0 14 The National Academies Joint Science Academiesrsquo Statement Global Response to Climate Change June 7 2005 httpwwwnationalacademiesorgonpi06072005pdf 15 Trombulak SC and Wolfson R Twentieth-Century Climate Change in New England and New York USA Geophysical Research Letters Vol 31 2004 16 Frumhoff PS JJ McCarthy JM Melillo SC Moser and DJ Wuebbles Confronting Climate Change in the US Northeast Science Impacts and Solutions Synthesis Report of the Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment (NECIA) 2007 httpwwwclimatechoicesorgneresources_nenereporthtml 17 Frumhoff et al 2007

8


Public Health and Natural Resources

Higher temperatures may lead to more intense and prolonged periods of summertime heat that will enhance the production of ground-level ozone especially in urban areas where ozone precursors are abundant 18 Studies assessing climate change impacts on public health indicate that increased heat stress and ozone concentrations may take a significant toll especially among susceptible urban populations such as children the elderly and individuals with cardiovascular and respiratory disease who are subject to increased air temperatures Heat-related mortality in the New York City metropolitan region could increase from 47 to 95 percent when compared to 1990 levels19 A study of weather events from 1991 to 2004 in New York City undertaken by the New York State Department of Health (DOH) found significantly elevated hospitalizations above modest temperature thresholds and greater susceptibility to heat stress among the elderly and Hispanic residents from lower income neighborhoods20 Predicted increases in temperature will also favor the survival of disease-carrying vectors increasing the risk of water- insect- and animal-borne disease21

Pests and diseases favored by warmer winters can also disrupt crop production and threaten forests including those in the Adirondack Park one the most significant hardwood ecosystems in the world Changes in forest composition will also impact fish birds and wildlife Warming inland waters will decrease the available habitat for cold-water fish species such as salmon and trout while warm-water habitat will expand Ocean coastal waters will warm altering the species composition of marine fisheries and impacting local fisheries-based economies22 As temperatures rise lobster populations in Long Island Sound will suffer additional stresses Furthermore increasing concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere will accelerate ocean acidification impacting marine organisms and coral reef formation

Flooding and Water Supplies

Sea level rise accelerated by climate change will increase the frequency and magnitude of flood damage to coastal communities inundate lands and will further stress critical coastal ecosystems Coastal flooding is projected to disrupt New York Cityrsquos infrastructure and transportation system with increasing frequency and to inundate greater areas of the city A recent study for the New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC) used global climate models and local geographic information to predict New York City sea levels may rise by 12 to 23 inches (in) by the 2080s A ldquorapid ice-meltrdquo scenario an alternative study method that incorporates observed and longer-term historical melt rates predicts sea level could rise by approximately 41 to 55 in by the 2080s23

18 Murazaki K and P Hess How Does Climate Change Contribute to Surface Ozone Change Over the United States Journal of Geophysics Research 111 2006 Dawson JP Adams PJ Pandis NS Sensitivity of Ozone to Summertime Climate in the Eastern USA A Modeling Case Study Atmospheric Environment 41(7) 1494-1511 2007 19 Knowlton K Barry L Goldberg R Rosenzweig C Hogrefe C Rosenthal JK and Kinney PL Projecting Heat-Related Mortality Impacts under a Changing Climate in the New York City Region American Journal of Public Health 97 2028-2034 2007 20 Lin S Luo M Walker JR Liu X Hwang SA Chinery R High Temperatures and Respiratory Cardiovascular Hospital Admissions in New York City (NYC) Epidemiology (in press) 21 Frumhoff et al 2007 22 Frumhoff et al 2007 23 New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC) Climate Risk Information 2009 httpwwwnycgovhtmlompdf2009NPCC_CRIpdf

9


New Yorkrsquos public drinking water supplies also may be stressed by changes in temperature and precipitation New York Cityrsquos water supply comes from a 2000 square mile watershed in upstate New York that is greatly influenced by temperature and precipitation24 A report by the NPCC discusses how changes in mean climate and climate extremes may critically affect many aspects of New York Cityrsquos infrastructure including water and waste systems For example with more frequent and intense heat waves increased water demand could strain water supply systems while more frequent and intense drought could affect average reservoir storage and operating rules More intense rainfall could lead to more combined sewer overflow events which would affect drinking water quality by polluting coastal waterways and increasing turbidity in reservoirs and could cause an increase in nutrient loads eutrophication and taste and odor problems25

Agriculture and Tourism

A warmer climate in New York may have both positive and negative effects on agriculture Heat-loving crops like European red wine grapes watermelons peaches and tomatoes may benefit from a longer warmer summer Grain crops are likely to produce lower yields in warmer summer temperatures Certain cold weather crops such as apples and potatoes are expected to be limited by prolonged periods of elevated temperatures All crops may face increasing summer heat stress drought and competition from weeds and pests26

Dairy farmers also may be impacted since milk production is maximized under cooler conditions ranging from 41degF to 68degF27 New York is the third largest producer of milk in the US behind California and Wisconsin with 121 billion pounds of milk produced in 2006 and annual revenues in excess of $23 billion28 During the unusually hot summer of 2005 many New York dairy herds reported declines in milk production of 8 to 20 percent29 A loss of milk production efficiency from heat effects could result in the loss of millions of dollars annually for New Yorkrsquos dairy industry30

Winter recreation and tourism revenue in New York also will be affected significantly by global climate change as warmer winters shorten the average ski and snowmobile season31 summer tourism however may benefit from extended warm weather

24 National Assessment Synthesis Team (NAST) Climate Change Impacts on the United States The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change p 123 2001 httpwwwusgcrpgovusgcrpLibrarynationalassessment04NEpdf 25 NPCC 2009 26 Wolfe DW Ziska L Petzoldt C Seaman A Chase L Hayhoe K Projected Change in Climate Thresholds in the Northeastern US Implications for Crops Pests Livestock and Farmers Journal Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 14(5-6) 555-575 2008 27 Garcia A Dealing with Heat Stress in Dairy Cows South Dakota Cooperative Extension Service P1 2002 httpagbiopubssdstateeduarticlesExEx4024pdf 28 US Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service Milk Production Disposition and Income 2007 Summary pp 4 8 2008 httpusdamannlibcornelledu 29 Frumhoff P et al 2007 p 69 30 Wolfe et al 2007 p17 31 Frumhoff et al 2007

10


223 Additional New York State Climate Change Impacts Research Underway

To better understand how climate change will affect our State the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) is currently funding a two-year study called Integrated Assessment for Effective Climate Change Adaptation Strategies in New York State The goal of this effort is to identify and assess both near-term and longer-term potential impacts in New York under different climate change scenarios This research will also identify and begin to evaluate adaptation strategies

The New York State Sea Level Rise Task Force created in 2007 by the State Legislature is assessing impacts to the States coastlines from rising seas and will recommend adaptive measures to protect New Yorks remaining coastal ecosystems and natural habitats and to increase coastal community resilience in the face of sea level rise

23 Stabilizing Atmospheric Greenhouse Gas Concentrations

To stabilize the atmospheric concentrations of GHGs GHG emissions must approach equilibriumndasha state of balance between GHG sources and sinks The likelihood and extent of many climate change impacts in New York and elsewhere depend upon the global concentration of atmospheric GHGs Generally the higher the concentrations at which GHGs are stabilized the greater the average global temperature increase

231 Climate Science is the Basis for GHG Stabilization Goals

Since GHGs exert their climate-altering properties on a global scale emission reductions must occur not only in New York but globally In 1992 154 nations including the US agreed to a series of overarching goals to minimize the risks from climate change embodied in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Article 2 of the UNFCCC establishes the treatyrsquos long-term objective of ldquostabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the Earthrsquos climate systemrdquo

Scientific evidence suggests that limiting the global average temperature increase to approximately 36degF (2degC) above pre-industrial temperatures may minimize the likelihood of the most severe climate impacts and is consistent with the UNFCCC goal of avoiding dangerous climate change32 Figure 333 illustrates the range of potential physical impacts at varying levels of global temperature change For each impact category a colored arrow indicates the possible temperature range for a specific physical change to occur an unbroken arrow with redder color indicates greater likelihood and severity of the physical event It is important to note that the most severe effects or ldquoAbrupt and Major Irreversible Changesrdquo may be prevented if the rise in global average temperature is limited to approximately 36degF (2degC)

32 Parry ML OF Canziani JP Palutikof and Co-authors Technical Summary Climate Change 2007 Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability 2007 httpwwwipccchpdfassessment-reportar4wg2ar4-wg2-tspdf 33 Stern N The Economics of Climate Change The Stern Review Executive Summary Figure 2 pp v 2007 httpwwwhmshytreasurygovuksternreview_indexhtm

11


Figure 3 Projected Impacts of Climate Change

Source The Economics of Climate Change The Stern Review Cambridge University Press 2007

The atmospheric GHG concentration that will result in a 36degF (2degC) increase in global temperatures cannot be known with great accuracy The best scientific estimates available including estimates from the 2007 IPCC Report indicate that if atmospheric GHG concentrations are stabilized in the atmosphere at 450 ppm of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) or total GHGs there is a medium likelihood that warming will not exceed 36degF (2degC)3435 To achieve stabilization of atmospheric concentrations at this level the IPCC estimates that net global GHG emissions must approach zero by the end of this century3637 The interim targets along the pathway to a 450 ppm CO2e stabilization level require global emissions to peak no later than 2015 and to decrease to 85 percent below year 2000 levels by 205038 IPCC did not evaluate intermediate reductions for timeframes other than year 2050

34 Carbon dioxide equivalent is a measure used to compare the emissions from different greenhouse gases based upon their global warming potential For example the global warming potential for methane over 100 years is approximately 21 This means that emissions of one million metric tons of methane are equivalent to emissions of 21 million metric tons of carbon dioxide OECD Glossary of Statistical Terms httpstatsoecdorgglossarydetailaspID=285 35 The concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is already at approximately 375 ppm CO2e and currently rising at roughly 25 ppm every year IPCC 2007 36 Using paleoclimate evidence and observations of current rates of global change some recent studies suggest that todayrsquos atmospheric GHG concentrations already are too high to maintain the climate to which humanity wildlife and the rest of the biosphere are adapted See Hansen et al Target Atmospheric CO2 Where Should Humanity Aim 2008 httpwwwipccchpdfassessment-reportar4wg3ar4-wg3-chapter3pdf 37 Fisher BS N Nakicenovic K Alfsen J Corfee Morlot F de la Chesnaye J-Ch Hourcade K Jiang M Kainuma E La Rovere A Matysek A Rana K Riahi R Richels S Rose D van Vuuren R Warren Issues Related to Mitigation in the Long Term Context In Climate Change 2007 Mitigation 2007 p 199 38 Meinshausen M (edited by Schellnhuber et al) What Does a 2degC Target Mean for Greenhouse Gas Concentration In Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change 2006

12


232 Apportioning GHG Reductions

Determining how much individual states or nations should reduce emissions through mid-century requires consideration of allocation equity and reduction effectiveness39 The UNFCCC approach to apportioning GHG emission reduction requirements between developed and developing nations considers a broad spectrum of parameters including population gross domestic product (GDP) GDP growth and global emission pathways that lead to climate stabilization40 Applying these parameters the UNFCCC concludes that to reach the 450 ppm CO2e stabilization target developed countries need to reduce GHG emissions by 80 to 95 percent from 1990 levels by 2050

233 Scientific Organizations Recommend Immediate Policy Action

Many scientific organizations have reached important conclusions about the need for governments to respond with sufficient resources to reduce GHG emissions dramatically The national scientific academies of the G8 nations including the US and the developing nations of Brazil India and China41

report

bull The scientific understanding of climate change is now sufficiently clear to justify taking action to reduce GHG emissions Any remaining uncertainty about the science is not sufficient to warrant further delay in action to reduce GHG emissions

bull Action taken now to reduce emissions will reduce the magnitude and rate of climate change

bull Any delay in acting will increase the risk of adverse effects of climate change and will likely necessitate more expensive mitigation later

In 2007 IPCC42 also concludes

bull Many impacts can be reduced delayed or avoided by mitigating GHG emissions Mitigation efforts and investments over the next two to three decades will greatly help to achieve lower stabilization levels Delayed emission reductions significantly constrain the opportunities to achieve lower stabilization levels and increase the risk of more severe climate change impacts

bull A wide variety of policies and instruments are available to governments to create the incentives for mitigation action

bull All stabilization levels assessed can be achieved by deployment of a portfolio of technologies that are either currently available or expected to be commercialized in coming decades

39 As previously discussed all emissions of GHGs must eventually be in quasi-equilibrium with GHG removal mechanisms to allow for stabilization of atmospheric GHG concentrations 40 UNFCCC Synthesis of Information Relevant to the Determination of the Mitigation Potential and to the Identification of Possible Ranges of Emission Reduction Objectives of Annex 1 Parties An Update 2008 httpunfcccbaliorgunfcccimagesdocumenttechnical_papperpdf 41 The National Academies Joint Science Academiesrsquo Statement Global Response to Climate Change 2005 httpwwwnationalacademiesorgonpi06072005pdf 42 IPCC Climate Change 2007 Synthesis Report Summary for Policymakers 2007

13


assuming appropriate and effective incentives are in place for development acquisition deployment and diffusion and addressing related barriers

bull Mitigation actions can result in near-term co-benefits eg improved health due to reduced air pollution that may offset a substantial fraction of mitigation costs

234 Public Health Benefits from Implementing GHG Emission Reduction Strategies

Available analyses provide compelling evidence for substantial public health and resultant economic benefits from implementing GHG emissions reduction programs In fact some suggest that many of these studies underestimate the benefits because they fail to consider a number of important health endpoints and economic costs43

The expected health benefits of urban air pollution reductions from climate change mitigation strategies in the New York City area (assuming that they produce an approximately 10 percent reduction in PM10 and ozone concentrations) would be to avoid approximately 9400 premature deaths (including infant deaths) 680000 asthma attacks and 12 million restricted activity days44 Additional discussion regarding the health benefits of reducing the combustion of fossil fuels in New York can be found in the Environmental Impacts Environmental Justice and Health Issue Briefs State air quality and public health protection programs could consider funding further studies on the nexus between reducing fossil fuel use and public health outcomes related to climate change Study results will inform mitigation and adaptation strategies to protect all communities especially those most affected by climate change

The California Air Resources Board (CARB) evaluated the public health benefits of implementing the California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 (AB32) which requires that Californiarsquos 2020 GHG emissions be reduced to 1990 levels The expected health benefits for California in 2020 resulting from the reduction in harmful air pollution accompanying reductions in GHGs include 400 avoided premature deaths 11000 avoided incidences of asthma and lower respiratory symptoms and 67000 avoided lost work days The CARB analysis also indicates that implementing AB32 will facilitate greater use of alternative modes of transportation such as walking and bicycling These types of moderate physical activities reduce many serious health risks including coronary heart disease diabetes hypertension and obesity45 By 2020 CARB estimates the economic value of the health- related benefits to be on the order of $22 billion

43 Bell M Davis D Cifuentes LA Krupnick AJ Morgenstern RD and Thurston GD Ancillary Human Health Benefits of Improved Air Quality Resulting from Climate Change Mitigation Environmental Health 741 2008 httpwwwehjournalnetcontent7141 44 Cifuentes L Borja-Aburto VH Gouveia N Thurston G Davis DL Assessing the Health Benefits of Urban Air Pollution Reduction Associated with Climate Change Mitigation (2000-2020) Santiago Sao Paulo Mexico City and New York City Environmental Health Perspectives 109(3) 419-425 2001 httpwwwepagoviespdfgeneralcifuentespdf 45 California Air Resources Board Climate Change Proposed Scoping Plan 2008 httpwwwarbcagovccscopingplandocumentpsppdf

14


Similarly the Stern Review46 which provides an expansive economic analysis of climate change discusses a recent study by the European Environment Agency47 that concludes that implementation of GHG emission reduction policies to limit global mean temperature increase to 36degF (2degC) above preshyindustrial levels will result in an annual savings of $22 billion to $64 billion in Europe for avoided health care costs

46 Stern N The Economics of Climate Change The Stern Review 2007 47 European Environment Agency Air Quality and Ancillary Benefits of Climate Change 2006 httpwwweeaeuropaeupublicationstechnical_report_2006_4

15


16

3 Greenhouse Gas Emissions in New York

Today CO2 from combusting fossil fuels constitutes nearly 90 percent of New Yorkrsquos GHG emissions Fossil fuels are burned in tens of thousands of places across the State in power plants to generate electricity on-site to heat buildings and to power industries and in vehicles to transport goods and people Emission inventories and projections are the basis for identifying GHG emission reduction opportunities and for planning for the economic and environmental impacts of policies Detailed information about the sources and methodologies used in NYSERDArsquos estimates of New Yorkrsquos current and future GHG emissions will be on the NYSERDA website48 and in the DemandPrice Forecasting Brief

31 Total Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Gas

In 2007 New York emitted approximately 284 m illion tons of CO2e or an average of 147 tons of CO2e for each State resident For each of the major GHGs Figure 4 depicts the portions of New Yorkrsquos emissions that result from fuel combustion and from other sources such as cement production limestone consumption soda ash consumption aluminum production direct manufacturing use of carbon dioxide agricultural soil management and municipal solid waste combustion

48 NYSERDA New York State Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Forecasts for the 2009 State Energy Plan Draft June 25 2009

17


Figure 4 Total CO2 Equivalent from Greenhouse Gases in New York State 2007

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Carbon Dioxide

Methane

Nitrous Oxide

Hydrof luorocarbons

Sulfur Hexaf luoride

Perf luorocarbons

Million Tons CO2 Equivalent

Fuel Combustion Other Sources

Total CO2 Equivalent from Greenhouse Gases 284 Million Tons

Percent of Total GHG

89

11

Fuel Combustion (252 Million Tons)

Other Sources (32 Million Tons)

885

65

23

17

lt10

lt02

Source NYSERDA

As Figure 4 shows CO2 comprises almost all (885 percent) of New Yorkrsquos GHG emissions Most CO2 emissions result from fossil fuel combustion (983 percent) Methanersquos contribution is second highest (65 percent) most of New Yorkrsquos methane (939 percent) results from sources such as municipal waste and natural gas distribution leakage rather than fuel combustion Nitrous oxide emissions comprise a small amount of the total (23 percent) and are mostly attributable to automotive fuel combustion Other industrial gases make up the remaining GHG emissions

32 Sources of State Carbon Dioxide Emissions

The GHG inventory divides CO2 emissions into four main end-use sectors industrial residential commercial and transportation Figure 5 details 2007 CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion by end-use sector fossil fuel combustion resulted in 87 percent of all GHG emissions in the State Transportation (38 percent) and on-site fuel use (37 percent) contribute roughly equivalent percentages of carbon dioxide emissions with electricity generation including electricity imports contributing approximately one-quarter of the total

18


Figure 5 CO2 from Fuel Combustion by End-Use Sector New York State 2007

0 20 40 60 80 100

Transportation

Commercial

Residential

Industrial

Million Tons of CO2

Transportation On-site Combustion Electricity Generation Net Imports of Electricity

Net Imports of Electricity

118

251

38

37

22

3

383

Total CO2 from Fuel Combustion 247 Million Tons (87 of Total GHGs)

On-site Combustion

Electricity Generation Transportation

248

Source NYSERDA

33 Greenhouse Gas Emission Forecasts through 2025

As shown in Figure 6 NYSERDA projects that annual GHG emissions in 2025 will be 293 million tons CO2e a relatively small increase from current levels The relative contribution of the various sectors will remain unchanged except that the ldquoOther Sourcerdquo category (non-fuel combustion) is projected to surpass residential emissions in 2020 and 2025

Figure 6 shows NYSERDA estimates of annual GHG emissions through 2025 which are based on US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts for Mid-Atlantic fuel demand along with natural gas projections provided by Energy and Environmental Analysis Incorporated

Forecasts for on-highway diesel and gasoline fuel use were based on forecasts of New York vehicle miles of travel provided by the Department of Transportation along with EIA-projected vehicle fuel economy

19


Figure 6 New York State Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Source Category 1990ndash2025

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Mill

ion

Tons

Car

bon

Diox

ide

Equi

vale

nt

Electricity Generation Net Imports of Electricity Transportation Residential Commercial Industrial Other (Not Fuel Combustion)

277 277 298305

283 286 292 293

Source NYSERDA

Forecasts for fuel use for the electricity sector and net imports of electricity were based on output from ICF Internationals Integrated Planning Modelreg (IPM) an electricity sector modeling software used to support the development of the Plan These projections include estimated emission reductions due to RGGI and partial implementation of New Yorks lsquo15 by 15rsquo energy efficiency goal as shown in the Electricity Assessment rdquoStarting Pointrdquo reference case For imports the emission factor was estimated based on modeled emissions from neighboring electric service territories

Non-fuel combustion emission forecasts for the industrial sector are based on the projected growth of New York industries These forecasts were created using Policy Insightreg version 80 a macroeconomic modeling software from Regional Economic Models Inc Estimates for emissions from hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) refrigerant substitutes are scaled from EPA projections for national emissions

GHG emissions from electricity transmission and distribution assume continuation of the long-term historical trend decline

A more detailed explanation of the forecasting methods can be found in the DemandPrice Forecasting Assessment the GHG emission forecasts are in large part based on the energy-use forecasts

20

4 The lsquo80 by 50rsquo Challenge

In New York millions of sources employing numerous fuel types and processes emit GHGs Each of the sectors earlier identified contributes a significant share to the total emissions inventory so no sector can be excluded from a comprehensive GHG reduction plan Programs that address all fuels and include all emissions sectors are necessary to reduce emissions 80 percent by 2050


The Issue Briefs and Assessments detail ambitious State programs and initiatives that promote energy efficiency carbon management and low-carbon-intensity power generation However modeling analysis indicates that in-the-pipeline GHG mitigation programs specifically the Energy Efficiency Portfolio Standard (EEPS) Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) and RGGI programs49 in addition to the 2007 federal Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards50 are insufficient to approach mid-term GHG emission levels consistent with the long-term lsquo80 by 50rsquo GHG emission reduction goal

Figure 7 displays the magnitude of emission reductions necessary for New York to reach an lsquo80 by 50rsquo goal The bar chart includes historic (1990) New York CO2e emissions information the forecast of emissions in year 2025 and the GHG emissions associated with the attainment of an lsquo80 by 50rsquo mid-century goal The forecast of emissions for year 2025 includes estimating the uncertainty in forecasting due to scenarios not included in the forecast methodology51 Most of the State regional and federal GHG mitigation programs that were modeled for the 2025 GHG forecast are focused on the electric sector

49 The EEPS requires a 15 percent reduction of total annual electricity projected to be generated in 2015 the RPS equates to a percentage of generated annual electricity currently proposed to be 30 percent of projected future year generation RGGI sets an initial multi-State budget of more than 188 million allowances for electric generators with an emission allowance for one ton of CO2 decreasing 10 percent by 2018 For the transportation sector the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) sets federal 2007 CAFE standards that will increase applicable fleet efficiencies from 275 mpg (passenger cars) and 222 mpg (light trucks) to a combined fleet 35 mpg in model year 2020 50 For the transportation sector the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) sets federal 2007 CAFE standards that will increase applicable fleet efficiencies from 275 mpg (passenger cars) and 222 mpg (light trucks) to a combined fleet 35 mpg in model year 2020 President Obamarsquos recent announcement that US EPA will adopt Californiarsquos GHG emissions regulations for new passenger vehicles and light trucks will result in additional GHG emission reductions 51 An error-bar (range) analysis as performed by NYSERDA DEC and other Departments has been included in Figure 7 indicated by a blue range added on to the NYSERDA 2025 Forecast inventory bar The error-bar range presents the potential cumulative effect of policy recommendations and possible scenarios described in the Plan The upper limit of the error-bar presents the additional greenhouse emissions associated with the combination of the Indian Point Retirement Scenario and the High Demand Forecast as described in the Electricity and Forecast Assessments For this analysis the baseline emissions forecast includes the Starting Point reference case for the electric sector which is described in the Electricity Assessment Modeling

21


Figure 7 Emission Reductions to Meet a 2050 Goal

000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000 M

illio

n To

ns (C

O2

Equi

vale

nt)


1990 Historic NYSERDA

2025 Forecast NYSERDA

2050 Goal

80 Reduction ~222 million tons

CO2e

Forecast Range

Baseline Emissions

Source Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC) Chart based on NYSERDA Inventory and Forecast Data

The chart illustrates the magnitude of the difference between 2025 forecast emissions under todayrsquos policies including consideration of a best case application of additional measures outside forecasting and a level of emissions that would place New York in line with mid-century emissions as recommended by some scientists Projection of these existing programs into future years included in the 2025 GHG forecast data and graphically presented in Figure 7 illustrates that these programs alone cannot attain the lsquo80 by 50rsquo goal Additional measures concurrent and parallel to existing programs that will address ldquoall fuels from all sectorsrdquo of GHG emissions are necessary to achieve mid-century reduction goals

As shown in Figure 8 a linear reduction pathway from forecasted levels in 2010 to an 80 percent reduction in 2050 requires 2020 emissions to be approximately 20 percent below 1990 levels and 2025 emissions to be approximately 30 percent below 1990 levels This analysis illustrates the order of magnitude of mid-term emission reductions required to achieve an lsquo80 by 50rsquo goal and makes clear the need for additional GHG reduction strategies beyond current State and federal programs

If critical programming for all sectors does not commence until after the 10-year planning horizon GHG reduction strategies may not be in place to reduce emissions in time to achieve an lsquo80 by 50rsquo target Postponing the strategies needed to reduce emissions could place an unnecessary financial burden on New York businesses and residents in a carbon-constrained national and world economy In the likely event of a federal cap on carbon emissions actions taken today by New York could help position the Statersquos businesses and citizens to profit from and adapt to a carbon-constrained national economy

22


Figure 8 Medium-Term GHG Reduction Target

000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Mill

ion

Tons

(CO

2 Eq

uiva

lent

)

1990 Emission Baseline

80 by 50 Linear Pathway

287 GHG Reduction

Forecast Emissions Historic Emissions 185 GHG Reduction

Source DEC chart based on NYSERDA Inventory and Forecast Data

42 Outline of an lsquo80 by 50rsquo GHG Emissions Reduction Scenario

The fundamental challenge in achieving an lsquo80 by 50rsquo mid-century goal is development and application of reliable cost-effective low-carbon-intensity energy carriers for all GHG emission sectors To illustrate the transformative changes needed the following discussion depicts one possible combination of strategies focusing on the Statersquos energy system that would place the State on a pathway to lsquo80 by 50rsquo

421 The Role of Energy Carriers

Energy carriers transfer energy from where it is available to where it is needed to do work A key energy carrier throughout the developed world is electricity which moves energy over long distances and to numerous local outlets through a system of wires Today most electricity carries energy that has been extracted from fossil fuels through combustion in central power stations To achieve an lsquo80 by 50rsquo goal most of New Yorkrsquos electricity would have to come from low-carbon-intensity energy sources such as solar wind and hydro52

Currently electricity is distributed to homes and businesses via the electric grid a system that includes high-voltage transmission lines a low-voltage local distribution network substations safety mechanisms

52 Recently BP Solar announced that the company has been selected to enter into negotiations with the Long Island Power Authority (LIPA) to provide close to 37 megawatts (MW) of photovoltaic solar power on the grounds of the US Department of Energys Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) Their proposal includes two large-scale commercial solar photovoltaic projects at the BNL site located in Upton New York Each project would be sized at just over 18 MW making BNL home to the largest solar photovoltaic site in the State of New York BP Solar negotiations for a 20-year power purchase agreement with LIPA for these two projects are set to begin immediately

23


and ldquotie-inrdquo facilities Although the electric grid is in need of upgrading its existence makes it relatively easy to add energy from new sources without constructing a completely new distribution system to accommodate a new non-electric energy carrier would require constructing a new distribution system

Because of their relatively low cost high-energy density and ease of distribution carbon-intensive energy carriers derived from fossil fuels also dominate the non-electric portion of the current energy economy Gasoline diesel ethanol and jet fuel carry energy used in the transportation sector to move people and goods Buildings commonly use natural gas propane fuel oil electricity or a mix of energy sources for space and water heating and for cooking and other functions Attaining a mid-century climate protection goal will not be possible with continued on-site use of fossil fuels in these current forms Replacing these fuels with one or more low-carbon energy carriers will be necessary to achieve an lsquo80 by 50rsquo goal Since the means of energy distribution and use will drive the selection and development of GHG reduction strategies the State should develop information that will help determine how New York can supply future energy needs with low-carbon energy carriers

It is critical that the energy system infrastructure and primary energy conversion mechanisms minimize carbon emissions to the greatest extent possible Whether the energy carrier is electricity hydrogen or some other choice developing primary energy conversion mechanisms and energy system infrastructure that minimizes carbon emissions to the maximum extent possible is likely to take significant capital resources and decades to complete Given the scale of needed energy generation sources and infrastructure planning and implementation for a low-carbon energy system must begin during the 10shyyear planning horizon of this Energy Plan

422 Electricity Generation and Storage

In any energy system aligned with an lsquo80 by 50rsquo GHG reduction goal energy will have to be generated by the lowest-carbon-emitting technologies available As presented in the Renewable Energy Assessment New Yorkrsquos renewable energy technical potential is approximately 90 percent of the 2018 forecasted electricity generation requirement Given continued growth in the solar-photovoltaic manufacturing base renewable energy could theoretically meet all electrical demands before mid-century

Currently New Yorkrsquos electric generation system comprises a diverse mix of primary energy sources having only about 53 percent of net generated electricity coming from fossil fuel-fired electric generating units53 The Statersquos electric sector contributes approximately 54 million tons of CO2e annually to the GHG emissions inventory exclusive of electricity imports The forecasts which incorporate the impact of RGGI and greater end-use efficiency but do not anticipate the cross-sectoral expansion of electricity use discussed above project a 13 percent reduction in electric sector emissions by 2025 Replacing fossil-fueled generating units with a build-out of hydropower and wind power54 to maximum technical potential as estimated in the 2003 Optimal study55 would further reduce electric sector emissions However additional development of low-carbon generation will be required to meet generation needs for a clean energy economy eg solar photovoltaic generation coupled with energy storage fossil-based

53 New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) 2008 Load and Capacity Data (the Gold Book) 2008 httpwwwnyisocompublicwebdocsservicesplanningplanning_data_reference_documents2008_goldbookpdf 54 Companies like General Electric already have made significant advances in wind turbine and other renewable energy technologies With more than 10000 wind turbine installations comprising more than 15000 MW of capacity worldwide and with wind manufacturing and assembly facilities in Germany Spain China Canada and the United States GE is one of the worldrsquos leading wind turbine suppliers helping to make possible the expansion of renewable energy throughout the world 55 Optimal Energy Inc (prepared for NYSERDA) Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Resource Development Potential in New York State 2003 httpwwwnyserdaorgsepEEampERpotentialVolume1pdf

24


generation utilizing carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) technology renewable imports from neighboring sources nuclear power or a combination of these technologies

In the existing bulk power supply system fossil nuclear and hydro electricity generation resources provide baseload power around the clock Lacking a significant energy storage infrastructure supplying baseload power from renewable energy sources that are variable by nature ie they operate when the wind is blowing or the sun is shining requires coupling such sources with energy storage or pairing them with other sources that have complementary operating characteristics

By contrast peaking power supplies must be able to commence operation quickly when electricity demand reaches its maximum to accommodate high air conditioning demand on hot summer days Nuclear power is not well-suited for peaking power because the units need a long time to cycle on and off Extensive use of renewable technologies to supply peaking power will require high-capacity energy storage Solar power may be part of a strategy for meeting peak demand since the power generated by photoelectric sources often is greatest during the times of peak demand Likewise electricity production from hydroelectric power plants with reservoir storage capacity can be responsive to an increase in demand by increasing flow through the hydraulic turbines In addition voluntary curtailment programs to reduce electricity use can reduce peak power needs

Ultimately development and deployment of energy storage technology are critical to the expansion of renewable power sources for supplying baseload or peaking power and may enable the use of variable renewable generation resources to satisfy peak power demand Plug-in electric vehicles could serve as an early means of energy storage Current State efforts to develop methods for storing electricity such as the establishment of the New York Battery and Energy Storage Technology (NY BEST) Consortium recently announced by Governor Paterson will expand New Yorkrsquos role in energy storage technology research development and manufacturing and position the State to benefit economically as energy storage capacity is expended

423 Electricity Transmission and Distribution

Currently central electric generating stations deliver power over high voltage transmission lines to be distributed in local load areas throughout the State A shift in building and transportation energy demand to electricity would necessitate not only a significant increase in generation but also added capacity in the transmission and distribution grid

New high voltage transmission technologies could provide greater transmission in limited space and existing rights of way while minimizing line loss Deployment of such high voltage capacity along with or in place of the existing energy infrastructure would facilitate additional use of renewable energy within the State and could enhance opportunities for importing renewable or other low-carbon energy from systems outside of New York Resources for renewable energy generation are not always found near existing transmission capacity new construction or the expansion of existing transmission would enable achievement of the full potential of onshore and offshore wind resources Upgrading lower voltage distribution systems would improve system efficiency and make it possible to readily interconnect distributed generation56

As an example the Long Island Power Authority (LIPA) is pioneering in its Holbrook transmission right of way the worldrsquos first High Temperature Superconductor (HTS) power transmission cable system that

56 Distributed generation is electricity from numerous small local generators

25


is operating in a commercial power grid The HTS cables can carry more than 150 times the power of a conventional copper wire of similar size and can be installed in existing rights of way thus helping to reduce the cost and environmental impact of grid upgrades With much lower impedance and resistance than conventional technology superconducting cables can draw flow away from overtaxed conventional cables or overhead lines thereby relieving network congestion and providing a more environmentally friendly power solution than copper-based systems57

A significant build-out of a ldquoSmart Gridrdquo which networks generation transmission distribution and consumption through lines of communication would promote load management and grid reliability Such a system would provide information and control for generators transmission owners and end-users alike At the most basic level a Smart Grid would allow end-users to monitor electricity consumption and even to compare their consumption with other like customers58 Further a Smart Grid could allow more consumers to become energy storage facilities and generators helping to minimize the disparity between base load and peak demand on the grid

Pilot Smart Grids are being proposed by National Grid and LIPA in New York and significant development of a ldquoSmart Cityrdquo system already is underway in Boulder Colorado59 LIPA along with Stony Brook University and Farmingdale State College has proposed the creation of Long Islandrsquos first integrated Smart Energy Corridor which will help LIPA customers monitor and reduce energy usage increase reliability encourage energy efficiency by facilitating smarter technologies and create clean energy jobs In addition LIPA has teamed with Farmingdale State College to create Long Islandrsquos first Smart Energy Campus demonstrating customer-owned renewable resources such as wind and solar60

424 Residential Commercial and Industrial Buildings Sector

Reaching mid-century GHG reduction goals would require that energy consumption in buildings be greatly reduced though design and efficiency measures and that remaining energy demand be met by near-zero- carbon energy sources New residential commercial and industrial building systems would need to reduce and eventually eliminate traditional on-site fossil fuel combustion for space heating water heating cooking and other uses

Conservation could be accomplished through building shell improvements such as high-R insulation doors and windows through operating system efficiencies which might come from energy-efficient lighting systems appliances and air handling systems and through building systems that reduce the need

57 Long Island Power Authority (LIPA) LIPA and American Superconductor Bring the Largest Superconducting Transmission Cable to Long Island 2006 httpwwwlipowerorgnewscenterpr2006080206_cablehtml 58 Displaying comparative information on utility bills already has proven to result in lower energy consumption in April 2008 a Sacramento utility began sending out statements to 35000 randomly selected customers rating them on their energy use compared with that of neighbors in 100 homes of similar size that used the same heating fuel The customers also were compared with the 20 neighbors who were especially efficient in saving energy Customers who scored high earned two smiley faces on their statements ldquoGoodrdquo conservation got a single smiley face Customers whose energy use put him in the ldquobelow averagerdquo category got frowns When the Sacramento utility conducted its first assessment of the program after six months it found that customers who received the personalized report reduced energy use by 2 percent more than those who got standard statements [Utilities Turn Their Customers Green With Envy NY Times January 31 2009] According to Positive Energy USA even the top 10000 most efficient customers in the study group reduced their consumption by 16 percent 59 Under the Boulder project 50000 homes soon will be provided with the latest in energy-saving technology including solar panels electric cars and for some specialized heating cooling and lighting systems All these devices will be integrated into a monitoring system that reports each homes carbon footprint to the homeowner 60 LIPA Governor Paterson and Congressman Israel Propose ldquoSmart Energy Corridorrdquo and First ldquoEnergy Smart Campusrdquo For Long Island 2009 httpwwwlipowerorgnewscenterpr2009051109-smarthtml

26


for heating andor cooling such as ground-source heat pumps passive solar collectors roof gardens and ventilation heat exchange technology Generating electricity on-site through solar wind or other renewable energy technologies would help minimize net energy input to buildings

Programs incorporating many of these strategies are already underway The US Department of Energy (DOE) Building Technology Program embraces the goal of developing ldquonet-zerordquo energy buildings with a goal of developing technologies and design approaches that lead to marketable zero energy homes by 2020 and zero energy commercial buildings by 2025 61 The 2030 Challenge issued by Architecture 2030 is a global initiative promoting an immediate 50 percent reduction in fossil-fuel consumption by all new buildings and major renovations and attainment of carbon neutrality in all new buildings by 203062

Numerous existing examples of low energy-consuming and therefore low GHG-emitting buildings already exist in New York and the Northeast

bull DECrsquos headquarters building in Albany opened in 2001 is a functioning example of technologies that minimize energy consumption and environmental impact The buildingrsquos design construction and operation utilize building products that incorporate recycled content materials and include technologies to reduce energy use and conserve water earning the building a LEED Silver rating from the US Green Building Council

bull The Condeacute Nast Building a modern skyscraper in Times Square in Midtown Manhattan is one of the most important examples of green design in the US It is the first project of its size to adopt state-of-the-art standards for energy conservation indoor air quality recycling systems and the use of sustainable manufacturing processes The building features environmentally efficient gas-fired absorption chillers and a state-of-the-art curtain wall with excellent shading and insulating performance to offset the need to heat or cool the building for the majority of the year

bull The Silhouette condominium building in Brooklyn which will be complete by summer 2009 will be one of the cityrsquos first new residential buildings to be both ENERGY STARreg qualified and LEED certified The buildingrsquos advanced green features including its state-of-the-art garden roof solar panel array and new urban ldquocommunity connectivityrdquo make it among the most ecoshyfriendly residential buildings in America

bull Green communities in New York City include Diversity Houses on the lower east side of Manhattan and the David amp Joyce Dinkins Gardens in Harlem Both of these projects provide affordable housing for low-income families while offering green advantages such as environmentally friendly construction energy efficiency water conservation and healthier building materials

61 The DOE definition of a net-zero energy building is a residential or commercial building with greatly reduced needs for energy through efficiency gains eg 60 to 70 percent less than conventional practice with the balance of energy needs supplied by renewable technologies 62 The 2030 Challenge calls for 1) all new buildings and developments to be designed to use half the fossil fuel energy they would typically consume ie half the regional or country average for that building type 2) at a minimum an equal amount of existing building area be renovated annually to use half the amount of fossil fuel energy they are currently consuming and 3) the fossil fuel reduction standard for all new buildings be increased to 60 percent in 2010 70 percent in 2015 80 percent in 2020 90 percent in 2025 and carbon neutral in 2030 (using no fossil fuel GHG-emitting energy) Architecture 2030 recommends the fossil fuel reduction targets be achieved through design the application of renewable energy technologies andor the purchase of renewable energy (20 percent maximum) Architecture 2030 2030 Challenge 2009 httpwwwarchitecture2030org2030_challengeindexhtml

27


Building efficiency is a key goal of DECrsquos Climate Smart Communities program which encourages local governments to increase their own operating efficiency and to use their powers to control local development and encourage building efficiency As an example Monroe County now requires adherence to LEED standards for new county buildings and major renovations greater than 5000 gross-square-foot (gsf) and directs its Industrial Development Agency to extend tax abatements from 10 to 14 years and adopt any further green building incentives to encourage the private sector to implement LEED

Eventually New York could adopt a whole-building design approach for new construction or renovationretrofit to significantly reduce the energy consumption and GHG emissions from buildings Whole-building design considers energy use and generation evaluating 1) onsite renewable energy technology 2) structural orientation and integration of passive solar energy 3) benchmarks to reduce the carbon intensity of fuels used on-site in buildings and 4) use of optimal energy-efficiency ratings and energy performance standards for all building elements

425 Transportation Sector

The high-carbon-intensity liquid fuels and infrastructure that dominate the transportation sector are not easily replaced with low-carbon alternatives Reductions in vehicle miles traveled use of low-carbon fuels and lower-emitting vehicles are all essential elements of a future lower carbon transportation sector As discussed further in the Transportation Issue Brief layers of concurrent strategies would be needed to transform our present high-carbon intensity transportation sector to a low-carbon model

The transportation sector currently relies on a high-carbon-intensity energy carrier petroleum-based liquid fuel Low-carbon-intensity energy carriers that are feasible for transportation include electricity hydrogen and possibly advanced biofuels such as cellulosic ethanol Many transportation experts consider electricity to be the most viable low-carbon fuel for light duty vehicles in the near-term Electricity also can be used to power light rail Expanding electrification of the transportation sector would help achieve GHG reduction goals by making it possible to transition demand from high carbon-intensity fossil fuels to low-carbon-intensity sources such as hydro wind solar photovoltaic or nuclear power New York should continue advancing this transition by promoting research and development for hybrid electric battery and energy storage technologies along with demonstrations to support vehicle fueling infrastructure development

Many policymakers are hopeful about the potential of plug-in electric hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) or vehicles that run only on electricity (EVs) to reduce emissions from the transportation sector Practical barriers often raised to adoption of electric vehicles include a current range of travel well below the 350shy400 miles of most liquid fuel passenger cars PHEVs could help bridge the technology gap allowing travelers to use electricity for local travel and liquid fuels for long-distance travel Private enterprises are currently exploring battery-exchange stations where EV drivers could swap out expended battery cells for fully charged cells in the same way as we exchange propane barbeque tanks at a gas station or hardware store Better Place a company based on this battery-exchange business model is currently building prototype battery-changing stations in Israel Denmark and Japan63

63 Expected growth in the electric vehicle market is fostering innovation For example Better Place is a pioneering company that has developed a business model to create a market-based electric vehicle infrastructure that sells batteries as consumable products in miles driven and builds networks of battery chargingexchange stations Better Place has teamed with governments in several countries to test its switching stations and has also signed agreements in Hawaii and with a nine-city alliance of communities in the San Francisco Bay Area The first 50 stations will be built in Israel by the end of 2010

28


President Obama has announced a goal of putting one million plug-in hybrid vehicles on the road by 2015 and has released two competitive solicitations for up to $2 billion in federal funding for cost-shared agreements for manufacturing of advanced batteries and related drive components for electric vehicles as well as up to $400 million for transportation electrification demonstration and deployment projects

43 Developing a Climate Action Plan

A strategic planning process is needed to identify the optimal mix of GHG reduction strategies necessary to meet an aggressive mid-century lsquo80 by 50rsquo GHG emission reduction goal supported by scientists and many governments A New York State Climate Action Plan will identify strategies that New York could pursue to reach these emission reduction targets Design of the Climate Action Plan should consider routine reevaluation and adjustment to take into account new scientific information on the needed rate of GHG emission reduction changes to expected rates of implementation of key GHG reduction strategies technological development and other emerging issues

While emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels dominate New Yorks GHG emission profile reductions from non-combustion operations outside the State Energy Planrsquos scope will help meet mid-century GHG reduction goals Therefore the Climate Action Plan will consider all of the Statersquos GHG emissions including emission sectors not covered in the State Energy Plan This analysis will encompass industrial GHGs with high global warming potentials eg sulfur hexafluoride methane emissions from landfills and agricultural practices and CO2 emissions from industrial operations such as cement production Efficiency measures may be able to reduce some portion of GHG emissions from certain processes but industries that use chemical biological and physical processes may find it difficult to control emissions inherent to those processes some processes may need to be re-engineered to obtain necessary GHG emission reductions

Managing the Statersquos landscape including agricultural soils and forest resources to maximize carbon storage is another important climate protection strategy not directly related to energy generation or use The Climate Action Plan also will take into account not only direct GHG emissions but also indirect emissions such as from land use changes associated with the full lifecycle of each energy-related facility64 Even for low-carbon energy sources lifecycle emissions may contribute significant GHGs until transportation and industrial process GHG emissions decrease

Given the complexity of designing a New York State GHG reduction pathway through 2050 and the uncertainties regarding long-term social technical and economic conditions and trends an initial planning horizon of approximately fifteen years through 2025 should be considered This time horizon is realistic because large reductions in GHG emissions are achievable by 2025 with todayrsquos technologies and practices and because it is reasonable to expect that within 15 years new technologies and longer-term strategies can be initiated that will facilitate achievement of the lsquo80 by 50rsquo goal A reduction target for 2025 that is based on a linear GHG reduction trajectory from forecasted year 2010 emissions through year 2050 (see Figure 8) yields a 2025 GHG reduction requirement of approximately 30 percent below 1990 levels This 30 percent reduction by 2025 could serve as a presumptive medium-term GHG reduction target to be evaluated further during development of a Climate Action Plan If during the strategic planning process interpolation from a linear GHG reduction pathway is determined to be inappropriate for target-setting the timing and percentage reduction for the medium-term goal can be modified accordingly

64 Lifecycle GHG emissions for energy facilities are associated with fuel procurement processing and disposal facility construction maintenance and decommissioning equipment manufacture and disposal land use changes

29


The pathway to meeting the lsquo80 by 50rsquo goal likely would include technologies that are not yet fully developed (such as large capacity renewable energy storage plug-in hybrid vehicles and low-carbonshyintensity liquid fuels) and would be influenced by future market drivers that are difficult to predict at this time Over the coming decades it is likely that emerging or even entirely new technologies will ease the transition to a sustainable energy system Nevertheless the scale and magnitude of change necessary and the considerable length of time before reduction strategies will yield significant results make it critical to begin dialogue soon on key long-term decisions eg whether electricity or possibly hydrogen could be the preferred low-carbon energy carrier for the transportation and building sectors and how to employ building orientation and design in reducing GHG emissions

431 Establishing a Planning Process

Development and implementation of the Climate Action Plan will require coordination among numerous State government agencies including those with responsibility for energy generation transmission and use in New Yorkrsquos power transportation and building sectors As currently envisioned DEC and NYSERDA would lead the interagency team that develops the Climate Action Plan Proceeds from the RGGI auction or other available funding sources could help support plan development and implementation Analysis of key technical economic social regulatory and legal challenges to meeting GHG reduction goals will require the leadership of government along with the participation and support of many stakeholders including businesses academia private organizations and the citizens of New York

432 Data and Analysis Needs for an Effective Plan

The Climate Action Plan will evaluate GHG emission sources and reduction strategies for nearly every sector of New Yorkrsquos economy An important first step will be assessing the adequacy of available baseline data on GHG emissions GHG inventories are the foundation of any emission reduction program providing both baselines for selecting regulatory actions incentives and market-based programs and benchmarks for evaluating effectiveness

GHG Emissions Inventory Data

As detailed earlier NYSERDA has developed estimates of current and future GHG emissions from New York In the coming year NYSERDA plans additional efforts to improve the accuracy of these emission estimates More refined data from voluntary and mandatory GHG reporting programs will improve the accuracy of emission estimates

On March 10 2009 EPA proposed a rule requiring major sources in the US to report emissions of CO2 and other GHGs this proposal would cover approximately 13000 facilities that account for approximately 85 to 90 percent of GHGs emitted in the US The new reporting requirements would apply to suppliers of fossil fuel and industrial chemicals manufacturers of motor vehicles and engines as well as large direct GHG emitters with emissions equal to or greater than 25000 metric tons per year including energy-intensive sectors such as cement production iron and steel production and electricity generation The first annual report for the calendar year 2010 would be submitted to EPA in 2011 with the exception of vehicle and engine manufacturers which would begin reporting for model year 2011

Access to accurate New York-specific baseline GHG emission data will help drive strategy development For example the construction demolition renovation maintenance and operation of buildings account for significant energy usage Accurate baseline data related to energy use in buildings including types of fuel used physical characteristics of building structure appliances being used for such functions as space

30


heating and cooling the buildingrsquos energy performance and other pertinent energy use information would help benchmark the energy performance of the New York building sector and identify strategies to approach carbon neutrality by mid-century

Data on Energy System Transition

Development of GHG reduction strategies will consider electricity system reliability during and after the transition to a sustainable low-carbon-intensity energy system A primary consideration is maintaining the ability to meet electricity needs during periods of peak demand Ultimately a sustainable energy system will rely increasingly on renewable energy sources coupled with conservation strategies to reduce peak energy demand transmission and distribution upgrades to ensure that electricity can move from where it is created to where it is needed and development and deployment of energy storage technologies Given sufficient time these strategies can be implemented in such a way as to enable New York to meet reliability needs with a sustainable low-carbon energy system Development of these strategies and timeframes for implementation will require close coordination among State agencies and authorities and key stakeholders such as the NYISO and the New York Reliability Council

Analysis of Economic BenefitCost

Development of the Climate Action Plan will include economic analyses to help optimize selection of near-term GHG reduction strategies New York through a NYSERDA contract with the Center for Climate Strategies is currently developing cost curves for individual and bundled GHG abatement strategies Results from this analysis will help estimate the relative costs of reduction scenarios and pathways Additional information identifying potential markets and penetration rates for available technologies will be valuable for shaping strategic reduction pathways

A similar study developing GHG abatement cost curves for the US is found in a 2007 report from McKinsey amp Company65 As shown in Figure 9 the abatement ldquocost curverdquo includes the range of emission reduction actions possible with likely available technologies in the 2030 time horizon and that cost less than approximately $50 per ton of CO2e The width of each bar represents the amount of CO2e that can be reduced annually while the height of each bar represents the average cost of avoiding one ton of CO2e This study found that numerous GHG reduction options exist that have zero or negative marginal lifecycle costs Implementing these options which include changes in lighting appliances and electronics and upgraded building heating and cooling systems could result in a cost savings (bars below the horizontal zero axis) over the life of the product6667

65 McKinsey amp Company Reducing US Greenhouse Gas Emissions How Much at What Cost US Greenhouse Gas Abatement Mapping Initiative Executive Report 2007 httpwwwmckinseycomclientserviceccsigreenhousegasasp 66 The McKinsey study (2007) focuses on technology costs and does not include program costs and social and market barriers 67 While these options clearly are the most economically advantageous to pursue implementation of positive cost projects may be necessary to achieve GHG reduction goals Positive cost projects often create other economic benefits by encouraging technological innovation and subsequent business and employment opportunities

31


Figure 9 Reducing US Greenhouse Gas Emissions How Much at What Cost

Source McKinsey amp Company 2007

The 2009 global GHG abatement cost curve McKinsey report Pathway to a Low-Carbon Economy finds that by 2030 there is potential to reduce global GHG emissions by 35 percent compared with 1990 levels68 This reduction trajectory is generally consistent with the long-term lsquo80 by 50rsquo GHG reduction goal The emission levels resulting from implementation of the McKinsey mitigation strategies would be broadly consistent with a pathway in which atmospheric concentrations of GHGs peak at 480 parts per million (ppm) and then begin decreasing McKinsey concludes that while highly challenging this pathway would result in a likely average increase of the global mean temperature of just below the 36degF (2degC) stabilization threshold although a 10-year delay in abatement actions would make it virtually impossible to stay below 36degF (2degC) If the most economically rational opportunities in a low-cost to higher-cost sequence in the McKinsey study are pursued to their fullest potential the total worldwide cost for achieving potential stabilization is estimated to be less than one percent of the forecasted 2030 global GDP

To support decision making New Yorkrsquos Climate Action Plan will include studies of the cost and benefits of climate change mitigation measures In addition to optimizing macro-economic benefits the Climate Action Plan will consider available studies on other societal benefits including reductions of other air pollutants diversification of energy sources and other benefits to the economy environment and

68 McKinsey amp Company Pathway to a Low-Carbon Economy 2009 httpwwwmckinseycomclientserviceccsipathways_low_carbon_economyasp

32


public health69 Indirect benefit studies may inform decision makers on how future climate change may affect New Yorkrsquos economy70 and how the Statersquos economy can most efficiently evolve in conjunction with other state regional and national GHG reduction programs Costs to initiate the low-carbonshyintensity economy would be considered in relation to the costs of the severe impacts that the State may experience if New York does not respond to climate change or if it responds too late ie the ultimate total economic cost for controlling GHGs would be higher Opportunities for a clean energy economy that will promote green jobs and new businesses in New York are further discussed in the Energy Costs and Economic Development Issue Brief

State-specific economic analyses of short-term emission reduction strategies conducted by California Florida and North Carolina project net benefits with increases in production activity job creation gross state product personal income and per capita income associated with the implementation of climate change strategies717273 The California study suggests that California has seen a dramatic increase in clean technology investments since the California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 (AB32) was enacted In the second quarter of 2008 alone California received $800 million of the global total of $2 billion venture capital invested in clean technology Energy efficiency programs also provide an economic co-benefit as lower spending on electricity allows consumers to increase spending on goods and services in other sectors Gains in energy efficiency will help deliver annual savings of between $400 and $500 on average by 2020 for households Overall energy savings projected from implementation of AB32 are estimated to exceed $20 billion annually by 202074 Cost curve analysis is now underway which will provide New York with similar information as the other state-specific economic analyses

On the other hand analyses of the economic costs of climate change for the nation and several individual states conducted by the University of Marylandrsquos Center for Integrative Environmental Research (CIER) concludes that unabated climate change could cost billions of dollars for several states These costs already have begun to accrue in some states and are likely to endure The 2007 CIER regional study US Economic Impacts of Climate Change and the Costs of Inaction found 1) economic impacts of climate change will occur throughout the country 2) economic impacts will be unevenly distributed across regions and within the economy and society 3) negative climate impacts will outweigh benefits for most sectors that provide essential goods and services to society 4) climate change impacts will place immense strains on public sector budgets and 5) secondary effects of climate impacts can include higher prices

69 A study by the Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management (NESCAUM) in collaboration with DEC and NYSERDA is evaluating economic and air quality outcomes of various future energy scenarios for New York A comprehensive and detailed Multi-pollutant Policy Analysis Framework is using a northeast US specific version of the Market Allocation economic model (MARKAL) a large-scale air quality model (CMAQ) the REMI regional economic model and EPArsquos Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP) a tool for estimating the health impacts and economic values associated with changes in ambient air pollution Results from this project will help assess environmental economic and public health consequences of GHGs ozone and PM25 control strategies in New York and the region 70 Oregon Washington and New Mexico all have conducted analyses on the economic consequences of climate change including impacts on food production eg agriculture aquaculture recreation forest fires flood and storm damage coastal damage and human health related costs The analyses report estimates of annual costs per household by 2020 of $1930 for Oregon residents $1252 for Washington State residents and $3430 for New Mexico residents 71 California Air Resources Board (CARB) Climate Change Draft Scoping Plan Economic Analysis Supplement 2008 httpwwwarbcagovccscopingplandocumenteconomic_analysis_supplementpdf 72 Ponder D Tiller J and Hoyle J Secondary Economic Impact Analysis of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Options for North Carolina 2008 73 Governorrsquos Action Team on Energy and Climate Change Floridarsquos Energy and Climate Change Action Plan 2008 httpwwwdepstateflusclimatechangeactionplan_08htm 74 CARB Climate Change Proposed Scoping Plan 2008 httpwwwarbcagovccscopingplandocumentpsppdf

33


reduced income and job losses75 A 2008 report produced by the National Conference of State Legislatures in collaboration with CIER State Economic and Environmental Costs of Climate Change reached similar conclusions76

44 Key Strategies to Begin Reducing GHG Emissions Now

Our current understanding of the rate and magnitude of GHG reductions required and the options available to New York make it possible to identify key actions needed in the short term to strengthen the Statersquos GHG emission reduction programs and ensure that the State does not ldquoclose the doorrdquo on meeting an lsquo80 by 50rsquo goal Adopting these initial policies will reduce investment in new long-lived carbon-intensive infrastructure will expand current programs that address building and transportation sector GHG emissions and will increase energy efficiency expand renewable energy resources and increase the capacity and functionality of the Statersquos electric grid to support the future clean energy economy New York has already begun implementation of many of these strategies

441 Types of Regulatory and Policy Strategies

Regulatory measures either command-and-control or market-based encourage private sector development of technologies and practices that enable compliance with the regulatory program at a minimal cost For example Californiarsquos ldquotechnology-forcingrdquo emission standards for motor vehicles a command-and-control regulatory program led to catalytic converters and other emission control technologies that brought about substantial improvements in the emissions performance of motor vehicles and in the longer run fostered the development of hybrid vehicle technologies These standards required emission reductions needed to protect public health rather than continuing to accept higher emissions until reductions could be shown to be cheap or technically easy The major automakers expressed concerns that compliance would severely damage their industry77 However when emission controls were implemented the predicted production stoppages maintenance difficulties unemployment and steep declines in sales and profitability did not occur Instead emission control technology has worked effectively and has been increasingly adopted worldwide

Well-designed cap-and-trade programs such as RGGI also provide price signals to promote the development deployment and use of lower-emitting technologies The programs function by establishing a total emissions limit or ldquocaprdquo for a particular pollutant and requiring regulated entities to possess enough allowances to account for their emissions Each regulated entity must decide how to operate under the cap weighing the value of an allowance against the cost of reducing emissions Firms are able to trade allowances to meet their emissions obligations Periodic reductions in the cap further encourage investment in emission reductions because tightening the cap makes it increasingly expensive to pollute

Carbon taxes are an alternative to cap-and-trade programs though there are some fundamental differences between the two approaches to carbon pricing Cap-and-trade provides certainty on the quantity of emissions while taxation increases certainty on the per-unit cost of emissions For both government sets

75 Center for Integrative Environmental Research (CIER) University of Maryland The US Economic Impacts of Climate Change and the Costs of Inaction 2007 httpwwwcierumdeduclimateadaptation 76 National Conference of State Legislatures Economic and Environmental Costs of Climate Change Overview 2008 httpwwwncslorgprogramsenvironClimatePubshtm 77 Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management (NESCAUM) Environmental Regulation and Technology Innovation Controlling Mercury Emissions from Coal-Fired Boilers 2000

34


one of these variables and then lets the market respond With a cap-and-trade program government sets the emission limit guaranteeing that total emissions will not exceed the cap Though the emission limit is fixed the per-unit cost of meeting that goal varies as the market continually corrects itself to determine the most cost-effective way of meeting the cap With taxation government sets the per-unit cost clearly signaling to firms the cost of pollution However the total amount of pollution that will be created is undetermined as sources will continually weigh the profits from generating pollution against the fixed cost of paying for it The American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009 currently before Congress would create a federal cap-and-trade program for GHG emissions

Programs involving scientific research and market analysis technology and business development commercial feasibility and demonstration and market expansion leading to adoption as standard practice can promote development and commercialization of products and processes that will reduce GHGs Marketing and outreach workforce development and education initiatives will build on the technical work developing relationships and supplying information and incentives to build self-sustaining markets and achieve New Yorks energy efficiency and climate change goals

NYSERDA public benefits programs funded from the System Benefits Charge (SBC) and RPS78 have shown progress toward reducing energy consumption and meeting environmental goals New GHG reduction initiatives funded by proceeds from the sale of RGGI CO2 allowances79 will soon complement these existing programs For each economic sector responsible for GHG emissions RGGI-funded programs will help to integrate climate change mitigation strategies with creation and promotion of clean energy technologies These efforts may enable GHG reductions without a regulatory burden on sources but are not likely to fully achieve climate protection goals

442 Electric Power Generation

Strategies to reduce emissions from electricity-generating facilities over the planning horizon include strategies to encourage and enable the siting of new renewable energy facilities and performance standards that ensure that only the cleanest new fossil-fired plants are built

Increasing the generation of electricity from renewable energy sources in New York in conjunction with emerging energy storage technologies is a key strategy for reaching GHG reduction goals Governor Patersonrsquos recently announced RPS expansion supports this goal requiring 30 percent of New Yorkrsquos electricity needs in 2015 to be met by renewable energy Additional discussion of the advantages of an aggressive renewable energy program can be found in the Renewable Energy Assessment

Emissions from new fossil fuel-fired plants can be minimized by developing and applying performance standards for emissions from power plants The existing fleet of fossil-fueled power plants and boilers will need replacement in coming years To support GHG reduction goals the long service life of these facilities requires that replacements in the existing fossil fleet be made with efficient low-carbon-emitting units GHG performance standards applicable to new plants will promote the design and construction of plants and boilers with the lowest possible carbon emissions while maintaining system reliability

78 NYSERDA Toward a Sustainable Energy Future A Three-Year Strategic Outlook 2008-2011 2008 httpwwwnyserdaorgpublicationsStrategic20Plan-complete-webpdf 79 During the next three years auctions of RGGI CO2 allowances are expected to generate approximately $600 million in revenues for New York NYSERDA Operating Plan for Investments in New York under the CO2 Budget Trading Program and the CO2 Allowance Auction Program 2009 httpwwwnyserdaorgRGGIFilesFinal202009shy201120RGGI20Operating20Planpdf

35


An analysis of emissions from New Yorkrsquos current fleet of coal-fired power plants makes it clear that construction of new coal or other similarly carbon-intense energy sources that do not capture and sequester most of the CO2 will make it difficult to achieve an lsquo80 by 50rsquo GHG reduction In 2006 coal-fired electric generation in New York emitted to the atmosphere approximately 21 million tons of CO2 while producing approximately 21 million MWh of net electricity to the grid An lsquo80 by 50rsquo reduction in GHG emissions from 1990 levels would limit total annual GHG emissions across all sectors to only about 57 million tons as compared with todayrsquos emissions of 284 million tons Coal or other carbon-intense energy sources such as petroleum-coke would not be consistent with an lsquo80 by 50rsquo scenario without near-total emission reduction technologies such as CCS

Requiring that any new coal-fired or petroleum coke energy facilities be designed and constructed to eventually allow for at least 90 percent capture of the CO2 emitted would make possible the GHG reductions necessary to put New York on a path to the lsquo80 by 50rsquo goal and avoid stranding investment capital in long-lived high-carbon-intensity power generation New York is actively supporting the development of CCS technology including several NYSERDA projects to evaluate the statersquos geological potential for CO2 storage and through ESDCrsquos support of CCS development at the Jamestown advanced coal power plant Additional information on the Jamestown project is available in the Coal Resource Assessment

DEC has undertaken stakeholder outreach regarding draft performance standards for new expanded or reconstructed fossil fuel-fired power plants very large industrialcommercial boilers and gasification plants These performance standards are designed to meet the goal of promoting the selection design and construction of power plants that support the transition to a low-carbon-intensity energy system This draft sets an achievable first-tier target for GHG emission reductions that can be met by modern natural gas-fired units Implementation of these standards would have the effect of prohibiting the construction of any new coal-fired plants in New York without CCS As CCS technology matures consideration can be given to strengthening these performance standards and making them applicable to existing plants


A key component of a low-carbon-intensity energy system is an upgraded and expanded system for transmitting and distributing electricity To have such a system in place by mid-century planning and implementation need to occur during the 10-year planning horizon

For any GHG reduction plan that uses low-carbon electricity as a key energy carrier it is highly likely that New Yorkrsquos existing electricity infrastructure will be inadequate The electric power grid needs regional balance in generation and consumption along with increased capacity through staged upgrades and additions over decades Beginning the design and construction of the electrical grid of the future now will allow for economical and efficient upgrades and additions with no interruption to electric flow

The New York Transmission Owners have initiated a long-term transmission study the New York State Transmission Assessment and Reliability Study (STARS) This study will develop a long-term pathway to a) meet the growing electric power needs of New York State b) encourage the addition of significant renewable energy sources in New York and the surrounding areas and c) address an aging infrastructure

444 Improving Electric Efficiency

Electricity consumption in New York is increasing but efficiency improvements could offset near-term projected increases in electric demand allowing time for renewable generation technologies and electric grid capacity to advance From 1997 to 2007 New Yorkrsquos electricity sales increased 13 percent annually

36


on a weather-normalized basis In its 2008 Load and Capacity Report the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) predicted that electricity use will continue to increase approximately 12 percent per year through 2018 Gains in efficiency during the current planning horizon can counteract this projected business-as-usual increase in total energy demand and reduce demand during critical peak load hours

Based on current NYISO projections achieving the EEPS goal of reducing New Yorkrsquos electricity usage by 15 percent from projected levels in year 2015 should improve efficiency enough to offset short-term demand increases This reduction in demand from projected levels will make it possible to postpone construction of new fossil fuel-fired generation and allow time to develop the low-carbon-intensity electric generation necessary to meet long-term GHG reduction goals Continuing to pursue efficiency measures also will reduce state GHG emissions and mitigate other environmental impacts related to combusting fossil fuels for energy Additional discussion of the advantages of an aggressive energy efficiency program can be found in the Energy Efficiency Assessment

445 Residential Commercial and Industrial Buildings

It is possible now to develop strategies that will put New York on a pathway to a carbon neutral building sector by mid-century Most new buildings constructed today and many existing buildings have expected lifetimes extending well past mid-century Reducing building emissions to near zero would require reducing whole-building energy demand and increasing the use of low-carbon-intensity energy sources including distributed generation from renewable sources Innovative financing mechanisms and incentives will promote implementation of both strategies in new and existing buildings Government regulatory and policy actions will be essential to achieving GHG emission reductions in the building sector

To improve the performance of new buildings New York is strengthening the Energy Conservation Construction Code of New York (ECCCNYS 2007) which establishes minimum requirements for energy-efficient buildings through prescriptive and performance-related standards making possible the use of new materials and innovative techniques that conserve energy Implementation of proposed changes to the ECCCNYS discussed in detail in the Energy Efficiency Assessment is an important interim step to making New Yorkrsquos building stock more energy efficient yet alone it is only part of the long-term pathway to a carbon-neutral building sector which includes further assessment of energy code compliance and identification of areas where improvements are needed The Department of State (DOS) in partnership with NYSERDA plans to offer more training and a new software compliance tool but training should also be required for builders contractors and building design professionals and additional funding for code enforcement is needed

As a condition of receiving New York Statersquos share of the $31 billion funding under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA) New York is required to take a number of actions with respect to the energy code including 1) adopting a residential building energy code that meets or exceeds the most recently published International Energy Conservation Code or achieves equivalent or greater energy savings 2) adopting a commercial building energy code throughout the State that meets or exceeds ANSIASHRAEIESNA Standard 901-2007 and achieves equivalent or greater energy savings and 3) adopting a plan for the State achieving compliance with such building energy codes within eight years of the date of enactment of ARRA in at least 90 percent of new and renovated residential and commercial building space These steps will help achieve the goal of reducing emissions from the building sector

37


446 Transportation Sector Strategies

To achieve desired reductions of transportation-based emissions policymakers are considering numerous technologies and policy strategies including a reduction in vehicle miles traveled and adoption of a low-carbon fuel standard for transportation fuels Efforts that are already underway to improve vehicle efficiency develop low-carbon fuels reduce vehicle miles traveled and improve transportation system efficiency can be expanded and integrated to reduce GHG emissions and put New York on a pathway to a carbon neutral transportation sector by mid-century As the transportation sector is projected to be New Yorkrsquos largest GHG emissions sector at least through 2025 such an integrated program is essential to reducing GHG emissions

The State has promulgated 6 NYCRR Subpart 218-8 Greenhouse Gas Exhaust Emission Standards revising New Yorkrsquos existing low emission vehicles (LEV) program to adopt Californias greenhouse gas emissions regulations President Obama has now endorsed these standards as a model for a federal program By 2016 GHG emissions from new passenger vehicles will be 37 percent lower and emissions from light trucks 24 percent lower

To reduce the carbon intensity of fuels New York State is joining 10 other states in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic Region in evaluating a policy framework to implement a low-carbon fuel standard (LCFS) A LCFS uses a market-based technologically neutral policy to address the carbon content of fuels by requiring reductions in the average lifecycle GHG emissions per unit of useful energy The LCFS rewards fuels with the lowest lifecycle GHG emissions and discourages the development of high-carbon fuels such as liquid coal Such a standard is potentially applicable not only for transportation fuels but also for fuels used for heating buildings and powering industrial processes If the standard is set properly and if fuel feedstocks are produced in a sustainable manner an LCFS could be an integral part of an overall GHG reduction strategy

Finally to reduce GHG emissions attributable to the miles New Yorkers drive New York State is developing a strategy to achieve a statewide goal of a 10 percent reduction in VMT from projected levels in 10 years Detailed strategies and actions involving VMT reductions transportation efficiency and transportation infrastructure improvements are discussed in the Transportation Brief

447 Environmental Review

To take advantage of the planning and assessment capabilities authorized by the State Environmental Quality Review Act (SEQRA) DEC has developed draft guidance for assessing energy use and greenhouse gas emissions in an environmental impact statement (EIS)80 and provides instructions to DEC staff for reviewing EISs that include a discussion of energy use or GHG emissions Other State and local agencies may choose to use this guide when serving as lead agency for a project subject to an EIS that includes a discussion of energy use or GHG emissions

80 Office of Air Energy and Climate New York State Department of Environmental Conservation Guide for Assessing Energy Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in an Environmental Impact Statement 2009 httpwwwdecnygovdocsadministration_pdfeisghgpolicypdf

38


45 Conclusion

By using a combination of pathways technologies and practices New York could achieve unprecedented GHG reductions while transitioning to a sustainable economy Careful selection and timing of strategies would make it possible to attain an lsquo80 by 50rsquo goal while promoting a robust and reliable energy system that is less vulnerable to world market conditions and fuel price volatility developing a new workforce and helping to establish a new manufacturing base and maintaining or increasing the level of services and goods to support New Yorkersrsquo quality of life Given the likelihood of a federal carbon program actions taken today by New York could help position the Statersquos businesses and citizens not only to avoid an undue financial burden but also to profit from and adapt to a carbon-constrained national economy

39


40

5 Appendix A

51 Projections of Future Global Climate Change

Climate scientists use very complex computer-based global climate models to project how the climate will respond in the future to natural and anthropogenic forcings such as increased GHG concentrations The models use many different scenarios of future GHG emissions based on estimates of economic and social growth Model output provides ranges of future temperatures increases rather than point estimates primarily due to uncertainty in which future scenario will occur and limitations in knowledge of how the climate system will respond Despite the uncertainties all global climate models project that the Earth will warm in the next century with a consistent geographical pattern

Climate model experiments show that even if no additional GHGs were added to the atmosphere further warming still would occur due mainly to a lag in ocean temperature response Many of the GHGs currently being added to the Earthrsquos atmosphere have long residence times For example 33 percent of the anthropogenic CO2 added to the atmosphere today will remain in the air for at least 100 years and 19 percent will remain at 1000 years81 This means that GHGs added now to the atmosphere will continue to warm the planet for hundreds and possibly even thousands of years The IPCC 2007 Report projects continued GHG emissions at or above current rates will cause further warming and induce global climate system changes that will very likely be larger than those observed during the 20th century In Figure A-1 the red green and blue lines represent global averages of surface warming for IPCC GHG emission scenarios (A2 A1B a nd B1 respectively) whereas the pink line is a simulation where atmospheric GHG concentrations are held constant at year 2000 values On the right side of the figure the bars inside the vertical lines indicate the best estimate while the solid lines themselves indicate the likely range assessed for six GHG scenarios at 2090-2099 relative to 1980-1999 As shown in Figure A-1 the 2007 IPCC projections of global average surface warming for the end of the 21st century range from approximately 20 to 52 degF (11 to 29 C) for B1 an aggressive reduction scenario to 43 to 115 degF (24 t o 64 C) for the A1F1 a fossil intensive business-as-usual (BAU) scenario82

81 Hansen J et al (46 co-authors) Dangerous Human-Made Interference with Climate A GISS Model Study Figure 9(a) Carbon Cycle Constraints (a) Decay of Pulse CO2 Emissions Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 7 1-26 2007b wwwatmosshychem-physorg 82 IPCC Climate Change 2007 Synthesis Report Summary for Policymakers 2007

41


Figure A-1 Global Projections of Surface Warming IPCC GHG Emissions Scenarios

Source IPCC 2007

The A1 GHG emissions scenario family describes a future world of very rapid economic growth global population that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter and the rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies The three A1 scenarios are distinguished by their technological emphasis business-as-usual or fossil intensive (A1FI) non-fossil energy sources (A1T) or a balance across all sources (A1B) The B1 GHG emissions scenario family an aggressive reduction scenario describes a convergent world with the same global population that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter as in the A1 scenario family but with rapid changes in economic structures toward a service and information economy with reductions in material intensity and the introduction of clean and resource-efficient technologies83

The IPCC also concludes that there now is higher confidence in projected patterns of regional-scale climate features including changes in wind patterns precipitation and some aspects of extremes and sea ice Such projected regional scale changes include poleward shift of extra-tropical storm tracks eg Norrsquoeasters and precipitation increases in high latitudes and precipitation decreases in most subtropical land regions Sea ice is projected to shrink in both the Arctic and Antarctic under all scenarios In some projections Arctic late-summer sea ice disappears almost entirely by the latter part of the 21st century

Other IPCC projections include sea level rise at the end of the 21st century of 71 to 150 inches (in) or 018 to 038 meters (m) for an aggressive reduction scenario and 102 to 232 in or 026 to 059 m with a BAU scenario Observational evidence and recent scientific assessment of ice dynamics of the

83 IPCC Climate Change 2007 Synthesis Report 2007

42


Greenland ice sheet suggest the IPCC projections may be too low8485 Contraction of the ice sheets and thermal expansion of the oceans is projected to continue to contribute to sea level for at least several centuries after 2100

In a review of current emission trends and recent scientific studies IPCC lead author Christopher Field concludes ldquoWithout decisive action by governments corporations and individuals global warming in the 21st century is likely to accelerate at a much faster pace and cause more environmental damage than predictedrdquo The next IPCC assessment in 2014 is expected to incorporate higher emissions and the results of new studies that consider dangerous feedbacks in the climate system such as tundra-thawing or tropical forest fires and therefore will predict even more severe changes than previous assessments86

52 Global and National Impacts of Climate Change

The effects of the relatively minimal atmospheric warming observed-to-date are already evident affecting many physical and biological processes on every continent including 1) shrinking glaciers 2) thawing permafrost 3) earlier break-up of river and lake ice 4) lengthening of mid- to high-latitude growing seasons 5) poleward and altitudinal shifts of plant and animal ranges 6) declines of some animal and plant populations and 7) earlier tree flowering insect emergence and egg-laying in birds87

The World Health Organization has estimated that in 2000 the ldquoattributable mortalityrdquo of climate change was more than 150000 deaths (03 percent of global deaths per year) and the projection for 2020 is approximately double the number of deaths88 The impacts have been disproportionately felt among the poor in Africa South Asia and Southeast Asia89

Not all future climate change will necessarily have negative consequences More productive crop yields and generally better conditions for vegetation in higher latitudes may be beneficial A changing climate may have positive impacts on the productivity of some forest systems but increasing disturbances such as wildfires and insect outbreaks will have a substantial impact Warmer winters may reduce winter cold stress and decrease cold-related mortality in the northern hemisphere However the overall benefits of fewer deaths from cold exposure are expected to be outweighed by health effects from increasing temperatures especially in developing countries90

As the Earthrsquos temperature increase approaches 36 degF (2degC) however the negative consequences will predominate With higher global average annual temperatures major climate impacts are projected excessive coastal flooding from sea level rise significant species extinction and loss of biodiversity

84 Pfeffer W T Harper J T and OrsquoNeel S Kinematic Constraints on Glacier Contributions to 21st-Century Sea-Level Rise Science 321 1340 -1343 2008 httpwwwsciencemagorgcgicontentabstract32158941340 85 Rahmstorf S A Semi-Empirical Approach to Projecting Future Sea Level Rise Science 315 368 - 370 2007 86 Environmental News Service Climate Could Cross Critical Threshold by 2100 Expert Warns 2009 httpwwwensshynewswirecomensfeb20092009-02-16-01asp 87 IPCC Climate Change 2007 Synthesis Report Summary for Policymakers 2007 88 Campbell-Lendrum DH Kovats RS McMichael AJ Corvalan C Menne B and Pruss-Usstun A The Global Burden of Disease Due to Climate Change Quantifying the Benefits of Stabilization for Human Health httpwwwstabilisation2005comday2kovatspdf 89 World Health Organization (WHO) The World Health Report 2002 2002 90 IPCC Climate Change 2007 Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability 2007 httpwwwipcc-wg2orgindexhtml

43


major ecosystem changes altered patterns of agriculture increased risk of food and water shortage with increased burden of malnutrition and water- and food-borne disease and more frequent and intense extreme weather events with serious consequences for human health91 The projected changes in water availability due to temperature increases will affect more than one-sixth of the worldrsquos population relying upon glaciers and seasonal snow packs for their water supply92

The anticipated impacts of climate change have been reviewed and articulated by the US Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) For the US Northeastern cities are likely to experience the largest increases in average temperatures bear the brunt of increased air pollution and be disproportionately affected by heat related illnesses since they are less well adapted to the heat than Southern cities Many of the expected health effects are likely to burden the poor the elderly and the disabled Warming is very likely to increase energy demand in cities for cooling while reducing demands for heating Heat waves could jeopardize electrical service reliability in some regions by exceeding supply capacity during peak cooling demand periods93

Changes in precipitation patterns will alter water supplies nationwide Examples of vulnerable US regions include the heavily-used water systems of the West that rely on capturing snowmelt runoff such as the Columbia and Colorado River systems portions of California the New York area as a consequence of greater water supply variability and many islands such as the US territories of Puerto Rico and US Virgin Islands In the Pacific Northwest electricity generated from hydropower will be reduced as water flows from snowmelt decrease Increased temperatures might be attributed to severe drought trends (1999-2007) in the Southwest and more recently the Southeast has also experienced severe drought94

91 IPCC Climate Change 2007 Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability 2007 httpwwwipcc-wg2orgindexhtml 92 Barnett TP Adam JC Lettenmaier DP Potential Impacts of a Warming Climate on Water Availability in Snow-Dominated Regions 2005 Nature 438303-309 93 The Committee on the Environment and Natural Resources National Science and Technology Council Scientific Assessment of the Effects of Global Change on the United States 2008 httpwwwclimatesciencegovLibraryscientificshyassessmentScientific-AssessmentFINALpdf 94 The Committee on the Environment and Natural Resources National Science and Technology Council Scientific Assessment of the Effects of Global Change on the United States 2008 httpwwwclimatesciencegovLibraryscientificshyassessmentScientific-AssessmentFINALpdf

44

6 Appendix B

61 Regional Climate Change Impact Projections for Two Different GHG Emissions Scenarios

Appendix B includes regional climate change impact projections with special relevance to New York from the recent Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment (NECIA) report entitled Climate Change in the US Northeast The report compared projected climate change impacts resulting from a higher GHG emissions scenario in which GHG emissions continue to grow rapidly with the impacts from a lower emissions scenario that assumes resource-efficient technologies and less reliance on fossil fuels The NECIA study projects significant impacts in New York for both emission scenarios95

95 Frumhoff PS JJ McCarthy JM Melillo SC Moser and DJ Wuebbles Confronting Climate Change in the US Northeast Science Impacts and Solutions Synthesis Report of the Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment (NECIA) 2007 httpwwwclimatechoicesorgneresources_nenereporthtml

45


Table B-1 Union of Concerned Scientists

Union of Concerned Scientists Northeast Projections of Climate Change Impacts for Two Different GHG Emissions Scenarios (NECIA Study)

High Emissions Scenario Lower Emissions Scenario Both Scenarios

Winters warm by 8deg to 12degF Winters warm by 5deg to 8degF (28 The number of days over (45 to 67degC) and summers to 45 degC) and summers by 3deg to 90degF (32 degC) is expected by 6deg to 14degF (34 to 78 degC) 7degF (17 to 39 degC) above to triple in many cities above historic levels by late-century

historic levels by late-century

New York City is projected to Warmer winters will

shorten the average ski Cities that today experience face todayrsquos 100-year flood and snowboard seasons

few days above 100degF (38 every two decades increase snowmaking and degC) each summer could average 20 such days per summer

Climate conditions suitable for maplebeechbirch forests would shift only in the southern

drive up operating costs

Most of the region is likely to have a marginal or

Extreme coastal flooding part of the region non-existent snowmobile that now occurs only once a century could strike New York City once every decade

Winter temperatures may prevent a deadly hemlock pest from infesting the northern part of the region

season by mid-century

Long Island Sound lobster fisheries are likely to decline significantly by

Short-term droughts could occur as frequently as once each summer in the Catskills and Adirondacks

Less extensive (although still substantial) changes in the regionrsquos bird life are expected

mid-century cod are expected to disappear from these southern waters by centuryrsquos end

Climate conditions suitable for maplebeech birch forests are projected to shift

Much of the region is projected to remain suitable for traditional apple and berry

Hotter longer drier summers punctuated by heavy rainstorms may

dramatically also impacting crops create favorable fish birds and wildlife Reductions in milk production conditions for more

Parts of the Northeast are projected to become unsuitable for growing

(up to 10 percent) would remain confined primarily to areas south of New York

frequent outbreaks of mosquito-borne disease such as West Nile virus

apples and blueberries Sprucefir forests are

Milk production is projected to decline five to 20 percent in certain months

expected to lose significant area diminishing their value for timber recreation and wildlife habitat

Weed problems and pest-related damage are expected to escalate

Source Frumhoff PS JJ McCarthy JM Melillo SC Moser and DJ Wuebbles Confronting Climate Change in the US Northeast Science Impacts and Solutions Synthesis Report of the Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment (NECIA) 2007

46













































45 Conclusion

5 Appendix A




ltlt13 ASCII85EncodePages false13 AllowTransparency false13 AutoPositionEPSFiles true13 AutoRotatePages None13 Binding Left13 CalGrayProfile (Dot Gain 20)13 CalRGBProfile (sRGB IEC61966-21)13 CalCMYKProfile (US Web Coated 050SWOP051 v2)13 sRGBProfile (sRGB IEC61966-21)13 CannotEmbedFontPolicy Error13 CompatibilityLevel 1413 CompressObjects Tags13 CompressPages true13 ConvertImagesToIndexed true13 PassThroughJPEGImages true13 CreateJobTicket false13 DefaultRenderingIntent Default13 DetectBlends true13 DetectCurves 0000013 ColorConversionStrategy CMYK13 DoThumbnails false13 EmbedAllFonts true13 EmbedOpenType false13 ParseICCProfilesInComments true13 EmbedJobOptions true13 DSCReportingLevel 013 EmitDSCWarnings false13 EndPage -113 ImageMemory 104857613 LockDistillerParams false13 MaxSubsetPct 10013 Optimize false13 OPM 113 ParseDSCComments true13 ParseDSCCommentsForDocInfo true13 PreserveCopyPage true13 PreserveDICMYKValues true13 PreserveEPSInfo true13 PreserveFlatness true13 PreserveHalftoneInfo false13 PreserveOPIComments true13 PreserveOverprintSettings true13 Start13 SubsetFonts true13 TransferFunctionInfo Apply13 UCRandBGInfo Preserve13 UsePrologue false13 ColorSettingsFile ()13 AlwaysEmbed [ true13 ]13 NeverEmbed [ true13 ]13 AntiAliasColorImages false13 CropColorImages true13 ColorImageMinResolution 30013 ColorImageMinResolutionPolicy OK13 DownsampleColorImages false13 ColorImageDownsampleType Bicubic13 ColorImageResolution 30013 ColorImageDepth -113 ColorImageMinDownsampleDepth 113 ColorImageDownsampleThreshold 15000013 EncodeColorImages false13 ColorImageFilter DCTEncode13 AutoFilterColorImages true13 ColorImageAutoFilterStrategy JPEG13 ColorACSImageDict ltlt13 QFactor 01513 HSamples [1 1 1 1] VSamples [1 1 1 1]13 gtgt13 ColorImageDict ltlt13 QFactor 01513 HSamples [1 1 1 1] VSamples [1 1 1 1]13 gtgt13 JPEG2000ColorACSImageDict ltlt13 TileWidth 25613 TileHeight 25613 Quality 3013 gtgt13 JPEG2000ColorImageDict ltlt13 TileWidth 25613 TileHeight 25613 Quality 3013 gtgt13 AntiAliasGrayImages false13 CropGrayImages true13 GrayImageMinResolution 30013 GrayImageMinResolutionPolicy OK13 DownsampleGrayImages false13 GrayImageDownsampleType Bicubic13 GrayImageResolution 30013 GrayImageDepth -113 GrayImageMinDownsampleDepth 213 GrayImageDownsampleThreshold 15000013 EncodeGrayImages false13 GrayImageFilter DCTEncode13 AutoFilterGrayImages true13 GrayImageAutoFilterStrategy JPEG13 GrayACSImageDict ltlt13 QFactor 01513 HSamples [1 1 1 1] VSamples [1 1 1 1]13 gtgt13 GrayImageDict ltlt13 QFactor 01513 HSamples [1 1 1 1] VSamples [1 1 1 1]13 gtgt13 JPEG2000GrayACSImageDict ltlt13 TileWidth 25613 TileHeight 25613 Quality 3013 gtgt13 JPEG2000GrayImageDict ltlt13 TileWidth 25613 TileHeight 25613 Quality 3013 gtgt13 AntiAliasMonoImages false13 CropMonoImages true13 MonoImageMinResolution 120013 MonoImageMinResolutionPolicy OK13 DownsampleMonoImages false13 MonoImageDownsampleType Bicubic13 MonoImageResolution 120013 MonoImageDepth -113 MonoImageDownsampleThreshold 15000013 EncodeMonoImages false13 MonoImageFilter CCITTFaxEncode13 MonoImageDict ltlt13 K -113 gtgt13 AllowPSXObjects false13 CheckCompliance [13 PDFX1a200313 ]13 PDFX1aCheck false13 PDFX3Check false13 PDFXCompliantPDFOnly false13 PDFXNoTrimBoxError true13 PDFXTrimBoxToMediaBoxOffset [13 00000013 00000013 00000013 00000013 ]13 PDFXSetBleedBoxToMediaBox true13 PDFXBleedBoxToTrimBoxOffset [13 00000013 00000013 00000013 00000013 ]13 PDFXOutputIntentProfile (None)13 PDFXOutputConditionIdentifier ()13 PDFXOutputCondition ()13 PDFXRegistryName ()13 PDFXTrapped False1313 CreateJDFFile false13 Description ltlt13 ARA 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 BGR ltFEFF04180437043f043e043b043704320430043904420435002004420435043704380020043d0430044104420440043e0439043a0438002c00200437043000200434043000200441044a0437043404300432043004420435002000410064006f00620065002000500044004600200434043e043a0443043c0435043d04420438002c0020043c0430043a04410438043c0430043b043d043e0020043f044004380433043e04340435043d04380020043704300020043204380441043e043a043e043a0430044704350441044204320435043d0020043f04350447043004420020043704300020043f044004350434043f0435044704300442043d04300020043f043e04340433043e0442043e0432043a0430002e002000200421044a04370434043004340435043d043804420435002000500044004600200434043e043a0443043c0435043d044204380020043c043e0433043004420020043404300020044104350020043e0442043204300440044f0442002004410020004100630072006f00620061007400200438002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e00300020043800200441043b0435043404320430044904380020043204350440044104380438002egt13 CHS ltFEFF4f7f75288fd94e9b8bbe5b9a521b5efa7684002000410064006f006200650020005000440046002065876863900275284e8e9ad88d2891cf76845370524d53705237300260a853ef4ee54f7f75280020004100630072006f0062006100740020548c002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e003000204ee553ca66f49ad87248672c676562535f00521b5efa768400200050004400460020658768633002gt13 CHT ltFEFF4f7f752890194e9b8a2d7f6e5efa7acb7684002000410064006f006200650020005000440046002065874ef69069752865bc9ad854c18cea76845370524d5370523786557406300260a853ef4ee54f7f75280020004100630072006f0062006100740020548c002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e003000204ee553ca66f49ad87248672c4f86958b555f5df25efa7acb76840020005000440046002065874ef63002gt13 CZE 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 DAN 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 DEU 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 ESP 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 ETI 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 FRA 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 GRE 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 HEB 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 HRV (Za stvaranje Adobe PDF dokumenata najpogodnijih za visokokvalitetni ispis prije tiskanja koristite ove postavke Stvoreni PDF dokumenti mogu se otvoriti Acrobat i Adobe Reader 50 i kasnijim verzijama)13 HUN 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 ITA 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 JPN ltFEFF9ad854c18cea306a30d730ea30d730ec30b951fa529b7528002000410064006f0062006500200050004400460020658766f8306e4f5c6210306b4f7f75283057307e305930023053306e8a2d5b9a30674f5c62103055308c305f0020005000440046002030d530a130a430eb306f3001004100630072006f0062006100740020304a30883073002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e003000204ee5964d3067958b304f30533068304c3067304d307e305930023053306e8a2d5b9a306b306f30d530a930f330c8306e57cb30818fbc307f304c5fc59808306730593002gt13 KOR ltFEFFc7740020c124c815c7440020c0acc6a9d558c5ec0020ace0d488c9c80020c2dcd5d80020c778c1c4c5d00020ac00c7a50020c801d569d55c002000410064006f0062006500200050004400460020bb38c11cb97c0020c791c131d569b2c8b2e4002e0020c774b807ac8c0020c791c131b41c00200050004400460020bb38c11cb2940020004100630072006f0062006100740020bc0f002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e00300020c774c0c1c5d0c11c0020c5f40020c2180020c788c2b5b2c8b2e4002egt13 LTH 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 NLD (Gebruik deze instellingen om Adobe PDF-documenten te 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1 Overview

The central challenge for New York energy planners is enabling a transition to an energy system with very low greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in time to do the Statersquos part to prevent the most severe impacts of climate change while maintaining the Statersquos reliable energy systems and economic competitiveness

In a sustainable energy system GHG sources and sinks1 would maintain atmospheric GHG concentrations at levels that protect human health and the environment In this respect New Yorkrsquos traditional energy system is unsustainable because fossil fuel combustion emits heat-trapping GHGs that build up in the atmosphere and the excess heat these gases retain is altering the climate

To stabilize GHG concentrations in the atmosphere emissions must approach a state of equilibrium ndash that is sources of GHGs must be in balance with sinks The higher the atmospheric concentration at which GHGs stabilize the greater the average global temperature increase and the resultant changes in the Earthrsquos climate Scientists believe that it is possible to stabilize atmospheric GHGs at a level that will avoid the most severe impacts of climate change though since the majority of New Yorkrsquos GHGs are emitted in the generation and use of energy this will require fundamental changes in how the State generates and uses energy


Combusting fossil fuels ie coal petroleum and natural gas transforms carbon that long has been sequestered beneath the ground into the GHG carbon dioxide (CO2) CO2 retains heat in the atmosphere which alters the Earthrsquos energy balance warms the planet and changes its climate Since the Industrial Revolution as fossil fuel use became widespread atmospheric CO2 levels have risen to more than one-third above pre-industrial levels with observable climate effects As developing nations expand their use of fossil-fuels the added emissions further accelerate climatic changes

Although understanding of the Earthrsquos climate system is imperfect its climate is sufficiently well understood for science to predict that continued unabated combustion of the Earthrsquos fossil fuels will cause dramatic and potentially catastrophic changes to the climate system Additional uncertainties about how well the natural world and human society can adapt to climate change increase the complexity of determining the ultimate impacts of climate change

Yet the outlines of the future are there to see Climate change threatens both human societies and natural biodiversity it is expected to significantly alter the environment that supported the development of human civilization In some geographic areas climate change may bring near-term positive effects such as increasing the length of growing seasons in high-latitude regions However most of the projected impacts to human and biological communities are negative and some pose serious threats

1 Sinks are natural and possibly human-enhanced processes that remove GHGs from the atmosphere

1










2









3





4






5







6










7











8








9








10











11






12






report









13









14




15


16






17



0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Carbon Dioxide

Methane

Nitrous Oxide

Hydrof luorocarbons


Perf luorocarbons





89

11



885

65

23

17

lt10

lt02

Source NYSERDA




18



0 20 40 60 80 100

Transportation

Commercial

Residential

Industrial

Million Tons of CO2



118

251

38

37

22

3

383


On-site Combustion


248

Source NYSERDA





19



0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Mill

ion

Tons

Car

bon

Diox

ide

Equi

vale

nt


277 277 298305

283 286 292 293

Source NYSERDA





20







21



000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000 M

illio

n To

ns (C

O2

Equi

vale

nt)




2050 Goal


CO2e

Forecast Range

Baseline Emissions





22



000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Mill

ion

Tons

(CO

2 Eq

uiva

lent

)



287 GHG Reduction









23









24











25









26










27









28









29











30









31







32






33










34










35











36








37










38


45 Conclusion


39


40

5 Appendix A





41



Source IPCC 2007





42










43






44

6 Appendix B




45
































46













































45 Conclusion

5 Appendix A




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 DEU 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 ESP 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 ETI 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 FRA 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 GRE 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 HEB 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 HRV (Za stvaranje Adobe PDF dokumenata najpogodnijih za visokokvalitetni ispis prije tiskanja koristite ove postavke Stvoreni PDF dokumenti mogu se otvoriti Acrobat i Adobe Reader 50 i kasnijim verzijama)13 HUN 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 ITA 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 JPN ltFEFF9ad854c18cea306a30d730ea30d730ec30b951fa529b7528002000410064006f0062006500200050004400460020658766f8306e4f5c6210306b4f7f75283057307e305930023053306e8a2d5b9a30674f5c62103055308c305f0020005000440046002030d530a130a430eb306f3001004100630072006f0062006100740020304a30883073002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e003000204ee5964d3067958b304f30533068304c3067304d307e305930023053306e8a2d5b9a306b306f30d530a930f330c8306e57cb30818fbc307f304c5fc59808306730593002gt13 KOR ltFEFFc7740020c124c815c7440020c0acc6a9d558c5ec0020ace0d488c9c80020c2dcd5d80020c778c1c4c5d00020ac00c7a50020c801d569d55c002000410064006f0062006500200050004400460020bb38c11cb97c0020c791c131d569b2c8b2e4002e0020c774b807ac8c0020c791c131b41c00200050004400460020bb38c11cb2940020004100630072006f0062006100740020bc0f002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e00300020c774c0c1c5d0c11c0020c5f40020c2180020c788c2b5b2c8b2e4002egt13 LTH ltFEFF004e006100750064006f006b0069007400650020016100690075006f007300200070006100720061006d006500740072007500730020006e006f0072011700640061006d00690020006b0075007200740069002000410064006f00620065002000500044004600200064006f006b0075006d0065006e007400750073002c0020006b00750072006900650020006c0061006200690061007500730069006100690020007000720069007400610069006b007900740069002000610075006b01610074006f00730020006b006f006b007900620117007300200070006100720065006e006700740069006e00690061006d00200073007000610075007300640069006e0069006d00750069002e0020002000530075006b0075007200740069002000500044004600200064006f006b0075006d0065006e007400610069002000670061006c006900200062016b007400690020006100740069006400610072006f006d00690020004100630072006f006200610074002000690072002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e0030002000610072002000760117006c00650073006e0117006d00690073002000760065007200730069006a006f006d00690073002egt13 LVI 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 NLD (Gebruik deze instellingen om Adobe PDF-documenten te maken die zijn geoptimaliseerd voor prepress-afdrukken van hoge kwaliteit De gemaakte PDF-documenten kunnen worden geopend met Acrobat en Adobe Reader 50 en hoger)13 NOR 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 POL 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 PTB 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 RUM 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 RUS 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 SKY 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 SLV 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 SUO 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 SVE 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 TUR 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 UKR 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 ENU (Use these settings to create Adobe PDF documents best suited for high-quality prepress printing Created PDF 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2









3





4






5







6










7











8








9








10











11






12






report









13









14




15


16






17



0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Carbon Dioxide

Methane

Nitrous Oxide

Hydrof luorocarbons


Perf luorocarbons





89

11



885

65

23

17

lt10

lt02

Source NYSERDA




18



0 20 40 60 80 100

Transportation

Commercial

Residential

Industrial

Million Tons of CO2



118

251

38

37

22

3

383


On-site Combustion


248

Source NYSERDA





19



0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Mill

ion

Tons

Car

bon

Diox

ide

Equi

vale

nt


277 277 298305

283 286 292 293

Source NYSERDA





20







21



000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000 M

illio

n To

ns (C

O2

Equi

vale

nt)




2050 Goal


CO2e

Forecast Range

Baseline Emissions





22



000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Mill

ion

Tons

(CO

2 Eq

uiva

lent

)



287 GHG Reduction









23









24











25









26










27









28









29











30









31







32






33










34










35











36








37










38


45 Conclusion


39


40

5 Appendix A





41



Source IPCC 2007





42










43






44

6 Appendix B




45
































46













































45 Conclusion

5 Appendix A













3





4






5







6










7











8








9








10











11






12






report









13









14




15


16






17



0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Carbon Dioxide

Methane

Nitrous Oxide

Hydrof luorocarbons


Perf luorocarbons





89

11



885

65

23

17

lt10

lt02

Source NYSERDA




18



0 20 40 60 80 100

Transportation

Commercial

Residential

Industrial

Million Tons of CO2



118

251

38

37

22

3

383


On-site Combustion


248

Source NYSERDA





19



0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Mill

ion

Tons

Car

bon

Diox

ide

Equi

vale

nt


277 277 298305

283 286 292 293

Source NYSERDA





20







21



000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000 M

illio

n To

ns (C

O2

Equi

vale

nt)




2050 Goal


CO2e

Forecast Range

Baseline Emissions





22



000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Mill

ion

Tons

(CO

2 Eq

uiva

lent

)



287 GHG Reduction









23









24











25









26










27









28









29











30









31







32






33










34










35











36








37










38


45 Conclusion


39


40

5 Appendix A





41



Source IPCC 2007





42










43






44

6 Appendix B




45
































46













































45 Conclusion

5 Appendix A









4






5







6










7











8








9








10











11






12






report









13









14




15


16






17



0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Carbon Dioxide

Methane

Nitrous Oxide

Hydrof luorocarbons


Perf luorocarbons





89

11



885

65

23

17

lt10

lt02

Source NYSERDA




18



0 20 40 60 80 100

Transportation

Commercial

Residential

Industrial

Million Tons of CO2



118

251

38

37

22

3

383


On-site Combustion


248

Source NYSERDA





19



0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Mill

ion

Tons

Car

bon

Diox

ide

Equi

vale

nt


277 277 298305

283 286 292 293

Source NYSERDA





20







21



000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000 M

illio

n To

ns (C

O2

Equi

vale

nt)




2050 Goal


CO2e

Forecast Range

Baseline Emissions





22



000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Mill

ion

Tons

(CO

2 Eq

uiva

lent

)



287 GHG Reduction









23









24











25









26










27









28









29











30









31







32






33










34










35











36








37










38


45 Conclusion


39


40

5 Appendix A





41



Source IPCC 2007





42










43






44

6 Appendix B




45
































46













































45 Conclusion

5 Appendix A










5







6










7











8








9








10











11






12






report









13









14




15


16






17



0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Carbon Dioxide

Methane

Nitrous Oxide

Hydrof luorocarbons


Perf luorocarbons





89

11



885

65

23

17

lt10

lt02

Source NYSERDA




18



0 20 40 60 80 100

Transportation

Commercial

Residential

Industrial

Million Tons of CO2



118

251

38

37

22

3

383


On-site Combustion


248

Source NYSERDA





19



0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Mill

ion

Tons

Car

bon

Diox

ide

Equi

vale

nt


277 277 298305

283 286 292 293

Source NYSERDA





20







21



000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000 M

illio

n To

ns (C

O2

Equi

vale

nt)




2050 Goal


CO2e

Forecast Range

Baseline Emissions





22



000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Mill

ion

Tons

(CO

2 Eq

uiva

lent

)



287 GHG Reduction









23









24











25









26










27









28









29











30









31







32






33










34










35











36








37










38


45 Conclusion


39


40

5 Appendix A





41



Source IPCC 2007





42










43






44

6 Appendix B




45
































46













































45 Conclusion

5 Appendix A











6










7











8








9








10











11






12






report









13









14




15


16






17



0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Carbon Dioxide

Methane

Nitrous Oxide

Hydrof luorocarbons


Perf luorocarbons





89

11



885

65

23

17

lt10

lt02

Source NYSERDA




18



0 20 40 60 80 100

Transportation

Commercial

Residential

Industrial

Million Tons of CO2



118

251

38

37

22

3

383


On-site Combustion


248

Source NYSERDA





19



0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Mill

ion

Tons

Car

bon

Diox

ide

Equi

vale

nt


277 277 298305

283 286 292 293

Source NYSERDA





20







21



000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000 M

illio

n To

ns (C

O2

Equi

vale

nt)




2050 Goal


CO2e

Forecast Range

Baseline Emissions





22



000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Mill

ion

Tons

(CO

2 Eq

uiva

lent

)



287 GHG Reduction









23









24











25









26










27









28









29











30









31







32






33










34










35











36








37










38


45 Conclusion


39


40

5 Appendix A





41



Source IPCC 2007





42










43






44

6 Appendix B




45
































46













































45 Conclusion

5 Appendix A














7











8








9








10











11






12






report









13









14




15


16






17



0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Carbon Dioxide

Methane

Nitrous Oxide

Hydrof luorocarbons


Perf luorocarbons





89

11



885

65

23

17

lt10

lt02

Source NYSERDA




18



0 20 40 60 80 100

Transportation

Commercial

Residential

Industrial

Million Tons of CO2



118

251

38

37

22

3

383


On-site Combustion


248

Source NYSERDA





19



0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Mill

ion

Tons

Car

bon

Diox

ide

Equi

vale

nt


277 277 298305

283 286 292 293

Source NYSERDA





20







21



000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000 M

illio

n To

ns (C

O2

Equi

vale

nt)




2050 Goal


CO2e

Forecast Range

Baseline Emissions





22



000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Mill

ion

Tons

(CO

2 Eq

uiva

lent

)



287 GHG Reduction









23









24











25









26










27









28









29











30









31







32






33










34










35











36








37










38


45 Conclusion


39


40

5 Appendix A





41



Source IPCC 2007





42










43






44

6 Appendix B




45
































46













































45 Conclusion

5 Appendix A















8








9








10











11






12






report









13









14




15


16






17



0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Carbon Dioxide

Methane

Nitrous Oxide

Hydrof luorocarbons


Perf luorocarbons





89

11



885

65

23

17

lt10

lt02

Source NYSERDA




18



0 20 40 60 80 100

Transportation

Commercial

Residential

Industrial

Million Tons of CO2



118

251

38

37

22

3

383


On-site Combustion


248

Source NYSERDA





19



0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Mill

ion

Tons

Car

bon

Diox

ide

Equi

vale

nt


277 277 298305

283 286 292 293

Source NYSERDA





20







21



000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000 M

illio

n To

ns (C

O2

Equi

vale

nt)




2050 Goal


CO2e

Forecast Range

Baseline Emissions





22



000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Mill

ion

Tons

(CO

2 Eq

uiva

lent

)



287 GHG Reduction









23









24











25









26










27









28









29











30









31







32






33










34










35











36








37










38


45 Conclusion


39


40

5 Appendix A





41



Source IPCC 2007





42










43






44

6 Appendix B




45
































46













































45 Conclusion

5 Appendix A












9








10











11






12






report









13









14




15


16






17



0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Carbon Dioxide

Methane

Nitrous Oxide

Hydrof luorocarbons


Perf luorocarbons





89

11



885

65

23

17

lt10

lt02

Source NYSERDA




18



0 20 40 60 80 100

Transportation

Commercial

Residential

Industrial

Million Tons of CO2



118

251

38

37

22

3

383


On-site Combustion


248

Source NYSERDA





19



0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Mill

ion

Tons

Car

bon

Diox

ide

Equi

vale

nt


277 277 298305

283 286 292 293

Source NYSERDA





20







21



000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000 M

illio

n To

ns (C

O2

Equi

vale

nt)




2050 Goal


CO2e

Forecast Range

Baseline Emissions





22



000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Mill

ion

Tons

(CO

2 Eq

uiva

lent

)



287 GHG Reduction









23









24











25









26










27









28









29











30









31







32






33










34










35











36








37










38


45 Conclusion


39


40

5 Appendix A





41



Source IPCC 2007





42










43






44

6 Appendix B




45
































46













































45 Conclusion

5 Appendix A












10











11






12






report









13









14




15


16






17



0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Carbon Dioxide

Methane

Nitrous Oxide

Hydrof luorocarbons


Perf luorocarbons





89

11



885

65

23

17

lt10

lt02

Source NYSERDA




18



0 20 40 60 80 100

Transportation

Commercial

Residential

Industrial

Million Tons of CO2



118

251

38

37

22

3

383


On-site Combustion


248

Source NYSERDA





19



0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Mill

ion

Tons

Car

bon

Diox

ide

Equi

vale

nt


277 277 298305

283 286 292 293

Source NYSERDA





20







21



000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000 M

illio

n To

ns (C

O2

Equi

vale

nt)




2050 Goal


CO2e

Forecast Range

Baseline Emissions





22



000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Mill

ion

Tons

(CO

2 Eq

uiva

lent

)



287 GHG Reduction









23









24











25









26










27









28









29











30









31







32






33










34










35











36








37










38


45 Conclusion


39


40

5 Appendix A





41



Source IPCC 2007





42










43






44

6 Appendix B




45
































46













































45 Conclusion

5 Appendix A




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PreserveHalftoneInfo false13 PreserveOPIComments true13 PreserveOverprintSettings true13 Start3 SubsetFonts true13 TransferFunctionInfo Apply13 UCRandBGInfo Preserve13 UsePrologue false13 ColorSettingsFile ()13 AlwaysEmbed [ true13 ]13 NeverEmbed [ true13 ]13 AntiAliasColorImages false13 CropColorImages true13 ColorImageMinResolution 30013 ColorImageMinResolutionPolicy OK13 DownsampleColorImages false13 ColorImageDownsampleType Bicubic13 ColorImageResolution 30013 ColorImageDepth -113 ColorImageMinDownsampleDepth 113 ColorImageDownsampleThreshold 15000013 EncodeColorImages false13 ColorImageFilter DCTEncode13 AutoFilterColorImages true13 ColorImageAutoFilterStrategy JPEG13 ColorACSImageDict ltlt13 QFactor 01513 HSamples [1 1 1 1] VSamples [1 1 1 1]13 gtgt13 ColorImageDict ltlt13 QFactor 01513 HSamples [1 1 1 1] VSamples [1 1 1 1]13 gtgt13 JPEG2000ColorACSImageDict ltlt13 TileWidth 25613 TileHeight 25613 Quality 3013 gtgt13 JPEG2000ColorImageDict ltlt13 TileWidth 25613 TileHeight 25613 Quality 3013 gtgt13 AntiAliasGrayImages false13 CropGrayImages true13 GrayImageMinResolution 30013 GrayImageMinResolutionPolicy OK13 DownsampleGrayImages false13 GrayImageDownsampleType Bicubic13 GrayImageResolution 30013 GrayImageDepth -113 GrayImageMinDownsampleDepth 213 GrayImageDownsampleThreshold 15000013 EncodeGrayImages false13 GrayImageFilter DCTEncode13 AutoFilterGrayImages true13 GrayImageAutoFilterStrategy JPEG13 GrayACSImageDict ltlt13 QFactor 01513 HSamples [1 1 1 1] VSamples [1 1 1 1]13 gtgt13 GrayImageDict ltlt13 QFactor 01513 HSamples [1 1 1 1] VSamples [1 1 1 1]13 gtgt13 JPEG2000GrayACSImageDict ltlt13 TileWidth 25613 TileHeight 25613 Quality 3013 gtgt13 JPEG2000GrayImageDict ltlt13 TileWidth 25613 TileHeight 25613 Quality 3013 gtgt13 AntiAliasMonoImages false13 CropMonoImages true13 MonoImageMinResolution 120013 MonoImageMinResolutionPolicy OK13 DownsampleMonoImages false13 MonoImageDownsampleType Bicubic13 MonoImageResolution 120013 MonoImageDepth -113 MonoImageDownsampleThreshold 15000013 EncodeMonoImages false13 MonoImageFilter CCITTFaxEncode13 MonoImageDict ltlt13 K -113 gtgt13 AllowPSXObjects false13 CheckCompliance [13 PDFX1a200313 ]13 PDFX1aCheck false13 PDFX3Check false13 PDFXCompliantPDFOnly false13 PDFXNoTrimBoxError true13 PDFXTrimBoxToMediaBoxOffset [13 00000013 00000013 00000013 00000013 ]13 PDFXSetBleedBoxToMediaBox true13 PDFXBleedBoxToTrimBoxOffset [13 00000013 00000013 00000013 00000013 ]13 PDFXOutputIntentProfile (None)13 PDFXOutputConditionIdentifier ()13 PDFXOutputCondition ()13 PDFXRegistryName ()13 PDFXTrapped False1313 CreateJDFFile false13 Description ltlt13 ARA ltFEFF06270633062A062E062F0645002006470630064700200627064406250639062F0627062F0627062A002006440625064606340627062100200648062B062706260642002000410064006F00620065002000500044004600200645062A064806270641064206290020064406440637062806270639062900200641064A00200627064406450637062706280639002006300627062A0020062F0631062C0627062A002006270644062C0648062F0629002006270644063906270644064A0629061B0020064A06450643064600200641062A062D00200648062B0627062606420020005000440046002006270644064506460634062306290020062806270633062A062E062F062706450020004100630072006F0062006100740020064800410064006F006200650020005200650061006400650072002006250635062F0627063100200035002E0030002006480627064406250635062F062706310627062A0020062706440623062D062F062B002E0635062F0627063100200035002E0030002006480627064406250635062F062706310627062A0020062706440623062D062F062B002Egt13 BGR 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 CHS ltFEFF4f7f75288fd94e9b8bbe5b9a521b5efa7684002000410064006f006200650020005000440046002065876863900275284e8e9ad88d2891cf76845370524d53705237300260a853ef4ee54f7f75280020004100630072006f0062006100740020548c002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e003000204ee553ca66f49ad87248672c676562535f00521b5efa768400200050004400460020658768633002gt13 CHT ltFEFF4f7f752890194e9b8a2d7f6e5efa7acb7684002000410064006f006200650020005000440046002065874ef69069752865bc9ad854c18cea76845370524d5370523786557406300260a853ef4ee54f7f75280020004100630072006f0062006100740020548c002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e003000204ee553ca66f49ad87248672c4f86958b555f5df25efa7acb76840020005000440046002065874ef63002gt13 CZE 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 DAN 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 DEU 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 ESP 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 ETI 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 FRA 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 GRE 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 HEB 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 HRV (Za stvaranje Adobe PDF dokumenata najpogodnijih za visokokvalitetni ispis prije tiskanja koristite ove postavke Stvoreni PDF dokumenti mogu se otvoriti Acrobat i Adobe Reader 50 i kasnijim verzijama)13 HUN 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 ITA 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 JPN ltFEFF9ad854c18cea306a30d730ea30d730ec30b951fa529b7528002000410064006f0062006500200050004400460020658766f8306e4f5c6210306b4f7f75283057307e305930023053306e8a2d5b9a30674f5c62103055308c305f0020005000440046002030d530a130a430eb306f3001004100630072006f0062006100740020304a30883073002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e003000204ee5964d3067958b304f30533068304c3067304d307e305930023053306e8a2d5b9a306b306f30d530a930f330c8306e57cb30818fbc307f304c5fc59808306730593002gt13 KOR ltFEFFc7740020c124c815c7440020c0acc6a9d558c5ec0020ace0d488c9c80020c2dcd5d80020c778c1c4c5d00020ac00c7a50020c801d569d55c002000410064006f0062006500200050004400460020bb38c11cb97c0020c791c131d569b2c8b2e4002e0020c774b807ac8c0020c791c131b41c00200050004400460020bb38c11cb2940020004100630072006f0062006100740020bc0f002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e00300020c774c0c1c5d0c11c0020c5f40020c2180020c788c2b5b2c8b2e4002egt13 LTH 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 LVI ltFEFF0049007a006d0061006e0074006f006a00690065007400200161006f00730020006900650073007400610074012b006a0075006d00750073002c0020006c0061006900200076006500690064006f00740075002000410064006f00620065002000500044004600200064006f006b0075006d0065006e007400750073002c0020006b006100730020006900720020012b00700061016100690020007000690065006d01130072006f00740069002000610075006700730074006100730020006b00760061006c0069007401010074006500730020007000690072006d007300690065007300700069006501610061006e006100730020006400720075006b00610069002e00200049007a0076006500690064006f006a006900650074002000500044004600200064006f006b0075006d0065006e007400750073002c0020006b006f002000760061007200200061007400760113007200740020006100720020004100630072006f00620061007400200075006e002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e0030002c0020006b0101002000610072012b00200074006f0020006a00610075006e0101006b0101006d002000760065007200730069006a0101006d002egt13 NLD (Gebruik deze instellingen om Adobe PDF-documenten te maken die zijn geoptimaliseerd voor prepress-afdrukken van hoge kwaliteit De gemaakte PDF-documenten kunnen worden geopend met Acrobat en Adobe Reader 50 en hoger)13 NOR 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 POL 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 PTB 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 RUM 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 RUS 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 SKY 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 SLV ltFEFF005400650020006e006100730074006100760069007400760065002000750070006f0072006100620069007400650020007a00610020007500730074007600610072006a0061006e006a006500200064006f006b0075006d0065006e0074006f0076002000410064006f006200650020005000440046002c0020006b006900200073006f0020006e0061006a007000720069006d00650072006e0065006a016100690020007a00610020006b0061006b006f0076006f00730074006e006f0020007400690073006b0061006e006a00650020007300200070007200690070007200610076006f0020006e00610020007400690073006b002e00200020005500730074007600610072006a0065006e006500200064006f006b0075006d0065006e0074006500200050004400460020006a00650020006d006f0067006f010d00650020006f0064007000720065007400690020007a0020004100630072006f00620061007400200069006e002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e003000200069006e0020006e006f00760065006a01610069006d002egt13 SUO 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 SVE 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 TUR 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 UKR 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 ENU (Use these settings to create Adobe PDF documents best suited for high-quality prepress printing Created PDF documents can be opened with Acrobat and Adobe Reader 50 and later)13 gtgt13 Namespace [13 (Adobe)13 (Common)13 (10)13 ]13 OtherNamespaces [13 ltlt13 AsReaderSpreads false13 CropImagesToFrames true13 ErrorControl WarnAndContinue13 FlattenerIgnoreSpreadOverrides false13 IncludeGuidesGrids false13 IncludeNonPrinting false13 IncludeSlug false13 Namespace [13 (Adobe)13 (InDesign)13 (40)13 ]13 OmitPlacedBitmaps false13 OmitPlacedEPS false13 OmitPlacedPDF false13 SimulateOverprint Legacy13 gtgt13 ltlt13 AddBleedMarks false13 AddColorBars false13 AddCropMarks false13 AddPageInfo false13 AddRegMarks false13 ConvertColors ConvertToCMYK13 DestinationProfileName ()13 DestinationProfileSelector DocumentCMYK13 Downsample16BitImages true13 FlattenerPreset ltlt13 PresetSelector MediumResolution13 gtgt13 FormElements false13 GenerateStructure false13 IncludeBookmarks false13 IncludeHyperlinks false13 IncludeInteractive false13 IncludeLayers false13 IncludeProfiles false13 MultimediaHandling UseObjectSettings13 Namespace [13 (Adobe)13 (CreativeSuite)13 (20)13 ]13 PDFXOutputIntentProfileSelector DocumentCMYK13 PreserveEditing true13 UntaggedCMYKHandling LeaveUntagged13 UntaggedRGBHandling UseDocumentProfile13 UseDocumentBleed false13 gtgt13 ]13gtgt setdistillerparams13ltlt13 HWResolution [2400 2400]13 PageSize [612000 792000]13gtgt setpagedevice13











11






12






report









13









14




15


16






17



0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Carbon Dioxide

Methane

Nitrous Oxide

Hydrof luorocarbons


Perf luorocarbons





89

11



885

65

23

17

lt10

lt02

Source NYSERDA




18



0 20 40 60 80 100

Transportation

Commercial

Residential

Industrial

Million Tons of CO2



118

251

38

37

22

3

383


On-site Combustion


248

Source NYSERDA





19



0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Mill

ion

Tons

Car

bon

Diox

ide

Equi

vale

nt


277 277 298305

283 286 292 293

Source NYSERDA





20







21



000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000 M

illio

n To

ns (C

O2

Equi

vale

nt)




2050 Goal


CO2e

Forecast Range

Baseline Emissions





22



000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Mill

ion

Tons

(CO

2 Eq

uiva

lent

)



287 GHG Reduction









23









24











25









26










27









28









29











30









31







32






33










34










35











36








37










38


45 Conclusion


39


40

5 Appendix A





41



Source IPCC 2007





42










43






44

6 Appendix B




45
































46













































45 Conclusion

5 Appendix A










12






report









13









14




15


16






17



0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Carbon Dioxide

Methane

Nitrous Oxide

Hydrof luorocarbons


Perf luorocarbons





89

11



885

65

23

17

lt10

lt02

Source NYSERDA




18



0 20 40 60 80 100

Transportation

Commercial

Residential

Industrial

Million Tons of CO2



118

251

38

37

22

3

383


On-site Combustion


248

Source NYSERDA





19



0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Mill

ion

Tons

Car

bon

Diox

ide

Equi

vale

nt


277 277 298305

283 286 292 293

Source NYSERDA





20







21



000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000 M

illio

n To

ns (C

O2

Equi

vale

nt)




2050 Goal


CO2e

Forecast Range

Baseline Emissions





22



000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Mill

ion

Tons

(CO

2 Eq

uiva

lent

)



287 GHG Reduction









23









24











25









26










27









28









29











30









31







32






33










34










35











36








37










38


45 Conclusion


39


40

5 Appendix A





41



Source IPCC 2007





42










43






44

6 Appendix B




45
































46













































45 Conclusion

5 Appendix A










report









13









14




15


16






17



0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Carbon Dioxide

Methane

Nitrous Oxide

Hydrof luorocarbons


Perf luorocarbons





89

11



885

65

23

17

lt10

lt02

Source NYSERDA




18



0 20 40 60 80 100

Transportation

Commercial

Residential

Industrial

Million Tons of CO2



118

251

38

37

22

3

383


On-site Combustion


248

Source NYSERDA





19



0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Mill

ion

Tons

Car

bon

Diox

ide

Equi

vale

nt


277 277 298305

283 286 292 293

Source NYSERDA





20







21



000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000 M

illio

n To

ns (C

O2

Equi

vale

nt)




2050 Goal


CO2e

Forecast Range

Baseline Emissions





22



000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Mill

ion

Tons

(CO

2 Eq

uiva

lent

)



287 GHG Reduction









23









24











25









26










27









28









29











30









31







32






33










34










35











36








37










38


45 Conclusion


39


40

5 Appendix A





41



Source IPCC 2007





42










43






44

6 Appendix B




45
































46













































45 Conclusion

5 Appendix A













14




15


16






17



0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Carbon Dioxide

Methane

Nitrous Oxide

Hydrof luorocarbons


Perf luorocarbons





89

11



885

65

23

17

lt10

lt02

Source NYSERDA




18



0 20 40 60 80 100

Transportation

Commercial

Residential

Industrial

Million Tons of CO2



118

251

38

37

22

3

383


On-site Combustion


248

Source NYSERDA





19



0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Mill

ion

Tons

Car

bon

Diox

ide

Equi

vale

nt


277 277 298305

283 286 292 293

Source NYSERDA





20







21



000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000 M

illio

n To

ns (C

O2

Equi

vale

nt)




2050 Goal


CO2e

Forecast Range

Baseline Emissions





22



000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Mill

ion

Tons

(CO

2 Eq

uiva

lent

)



287 GHG Reduction









23









24











25









26










27









28









29











30









31







32






33










34










35











36








37










38


45 Conclusion


39


40

5 Appendix A





41



Source IPCC 2007





42










43






44

6 Appendix B




45
































46













































45 Conclusion

5 Appendix A








15


16






17



0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Carbon Dioxide

Methane

Nitrous Oxide

Hydrof luorocarbons


Perf luorocarbons





89

11



885

65

23

17

lt10

lt02

Source NYSERDA




18



0 20 40 60 80 100

Transportation

Commercial

Residential

Industrial

Million Tons of CO2



118

251

38

37

22

3

383


On-site Combustion


248

Source NYSERDA





19



0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Mill

ion

Tons

Car

bon

Diox

ide

Equi

vale

nt


277 277 298305

283 286 292 293

Source NYSERDA





20







21



000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000 M

illio

n To

ns (C

O2

Equi

vale

nt)




2050 Goal


CO2e

Forecast Range

Baseline Emissions





22



000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Mill

ion

Tons

(CO

2 Eq

uiva

lent

)



287 GHG Reduction









23









24











25









26










27









28









29











30









31







32






33










34










35











36








37










38


45 Conclusion


39


40

5 Appendix A





41



Source IPCC 2007





42










43






44

6 Appendix B




45
































46













































45 Conclusion

5 Appendix A






16






17



0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Carbon Dioxide

Methane

Nitrous Oxide

Hydrof luorocarbons


Perf luorocarbons





89

11



885

65

23

17

lt10

lt02

Source NYSERDA




18



0 20 40 60 80 100

Transportation

Commercial

Residential

Industrial

Million Tons of CO2



118

251

38

37

22

3

383


On-site Combustion


248

Source NYSERDA





19



0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Mill

ion

Tons

Car

bon

Diox

ide

Equi

vale

nt


277 277 298305

283 286 292 293

Source NYSERDA





20







21



000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000 M

illio

n To

ns (C

O2

Equi

vale

nt)




2050 Goal


CO2e

Forecast Range

Baseline Emissions





22



000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Mill

ion

Tons

(CO

2 Eq

uiva

lent

)



287 GHG Reduction









23









24











25









26










27









28









29











30









31







32






33










34










35











36








37










38


45 Conclusion


39


40

5 Appendix A





41



Source IPCC 2007





42










43






44

6 Appendix B




45
































46













































45 Conclusion

5 Appendix A










17



0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Carbon Dioxide

Methane

Nitrous Oxide

Hydrof luorocarbons


Perf luorocarbons





89

11



885

65

23

17

lt10

lt02

Source NYSERDA




18



0 20 40 60 80 100

Transportation

Commercial

Residential

Industrial

Million Tons of CO2



118

251

38

37

22

3

383


On-site Combustion


248

Source NYSERDA





19



0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Mill

ion

Tons

Car

bon

Diox

ide

Equi

vale

nt


277 277 298305

283 286 292 293

Source NYSERDA





20







21



000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000 M

illio

n To

ns (C

O2

Equi

vale

nt)




2050 Goal


CO2e

Forecast Range

Baseline Emissions





22



000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Mill

ion

Tons

(CO

2 Eq

uiva

lent

)



287 GHG Reduction









23









24











25









26










27









28









29











30









31







32






33










34










35











36








37










38


45 Conclusion


39


40

5 Appendix A





41



Source IPCC 2007





42










43






44

6 Appendix B




45
































46













































45 Conclusion

5 Appendix A







0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Carbon Dioxide

Methane

Nitrous Oxide

Hydrof luorocarbons


Perf luorocarbons





89

11



885

65

23

17

lt10

lt02

Source NYSERDA




18



0 20 40 60 80 100

Transportation

Commercial

Residential

Industrial

Million Tons of CO2



118

251

38

37

22

3

383


On-site Combustion


248

Source NYSERDA





19



0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Mill

ion

Tons

Car

bon

Diox

ide

Equi

vale

nt


277 277 298305

283 286 292 293

Source NYSERDA





20







21



000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000 M

illio

n To

ns (C

O2

Equi

vale

nt)




2050 Goal


CO2e

Forecast Range

Baseline Emissions





22



000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Mill

ion

Tons

(CO

2 Eq

uiva

lent

)



287 GHG Reduction









23









24











25









26










27









28









29











30









31







32






33










34










35











36








37










38


45 Conclusion


39


40

5 Appendix A





41



Source IPCC 2007





42










43






44

6 Appendix B




45
































46













































45 Conclusion

5 Appendix A







0 20 40 60 80 100

Transportation

Commercial

Residential

Industrial

Million Tons of CO2



118

251

38

37

22

3

383


On-site Combustion


248

Source NYSERDA





19



0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Mill

ion

Tons

Car

bon

Diox

ide

Equi

vale

nt


277 277 298305

283 286 292 293

Source NYSERDA





20







21



000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000 M

illio

n To

ns (C

O2

Equi

vale

nt)




2050 Goal


CO2e

Forecast Range

Baseline Emissions





22



000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Mill

ion

Tons

(CO

2 Eq

uiva

lent

)



287 GHG Reduction









23









24











25









26










27









28









29











30









31







32






33










34










35











36








37










38


45 Conclusion


39


40

5 Appendix A





41



Source IPCC 2007





42










43






44

6 Appendix B




45
































46













































45 Conclusion

5 Appendix A







0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Mill

ion

Tons

Car

bon

Diox

ide

Equi

vale

nt


277 277 298305

283 286 292 293

Source NYSERDA





20







21



000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000 M

illio

n To

ns (C

O2

Equi

vale

nt)




2050 Goal


CO2e

Forecast Range

Baseline Emissions





22



000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Mill

ion

Tons

(CO

2 Eq

uiva

lent

)



287 GHG Reduction









23









24











25









26










27









28









29











30









31







32






33










34










35











36








37










38


45 Conclusion


39


40

5 Appendix A





41



Source IPCC 2007





42










43






44

6 Appendix B




45
































46













































45 Conclusion

5 Appendix A











21



000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000 M

illio

n To

ns (C

O2

Equi

vale

nt)




2050 Goal


CO2e

Forecast Range

Baseline Emissions





22



000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Mill

ion

Tons

(CO

2 Eq

uiva

lent

)



287 GHG Reduction









23









24











25









26










27









28









29











30









31







32






33










34










35











36








37










38


45 Conclusion


39


40

5 Appendix A





41



Source IPCC 2007





42










43






44

6 Appendix B




45
































46













































45 Conclusion

5 Appendix A







000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000 M

illio

n To

ns (C

O2

Equi

vale

nt)




2050 Goal


CO2e

Forecast Range

Baseline Emissions





22



000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Mill

ion

Tons

(CO

2 Eq

uiva

lent

)



287 GHG Reduction









23









24











25









26










27









28









29











30









31







32






33










34










35











36








37










38


45 Conclusion


39


40

5 Appendix A





41



Source IPCC 2007





42










43






44

6 Appendix B




45
































46













































45 Conclusion

5 Appendix A







000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Mill

ion

Tons

(CO

2 Eq

uiva

lent

)



287 GHG Reduction









23









24











25









26










27









28









29











30









31







32






33










34










35











36








37










38


45 Conclusion


39


40

5 Appendix A





41



Source IPCC 2007





42










43






44

6 Appendix B




45
































46













































45 Conclusion

5 Appendix A













24











25









26










27









28









29











30









31







32






33










34










35











36








37










38


45 Conclusion


39


40

5 Appendix A





41



Source IPCC 2007





42










43






44

6 Appendix B




45
































46













































45 Conclusion

5 Appendix A















25









26










27









28









29











30









31







32






33










34










35











36








37










38


45 Conclusion


39


40

5 Appendix A





41



Source IPCC 2007





42










43






44

6 Appendix B




45
































46













































45 Conclusion

5 Appendix A













26










27









28









29











30









31







32






33










34










35











36








37










38


45 Conclusion


39


40

5 Appendix A





41



Source IPCC 2007





42










43






44

6 Appendix B




45
































46













































45 Conclusion

5 Appendix A














27









28









29











30









31







32






33










34










35











36








37










38


45 Conclusion


39


40

5 Appendix A





41



Source IPCC 2007





42










43






44

6 Appendix B




45
































46













































45 Conclusion

5 Appendix A













28









29











30









31







32






33










34










35











36








37










38


45 Conclusion


39


40

5 Appendix A





41



Source IPCC 2007





42










43






44

6 Appendix B




45
































46













































45 Conclusion

5 Appendix A













29











30









31







32






33










34










35











36








37










38


45 Conclusion


39


40

5 Appendix A





41



Source IPCC 2007





42










43






44

6 Appendix B




45
































46













































45 Conclusion

5 Appendix A















30









31







32






33










34










35











36








37










38


45 Conclusion


39


40

5 Appendix A





41



Source IPCC 2007





42










43






44

6 Appendix B




45
































46













































45 Conclusion

5 Appendix A













31







32






33










34










35











36








37










38


45 Conclusion


39


40

5 Appendix A





41



Source IPCC 2007





42










43






44

6 Appendix B




45
































46













































45 Conclusion

5 Appendix A











32






33










34










35











36








37










38


45 Conclusion


39


40

5 Appendix A





41



Source IPCC 2007





42










43






44

6 Appendix B




45
































46













































45 Conclusion

5 Appendix A










33










34










35











36








37










38


45 Conclusion


39


40

5 Appendix A





41



Source IPCC 2007





42










43






44

6 Appendix B




45
































46













































45 Conclusion

5 Appendix A














34










35











36








37










38


45 Conclusion


39


40

5 Appendix A





41



Source IPCC 2007





42










43






44

6 Appendix B




45
































46













































45 Conclusion

5 Appendix A














35











36








37










38


45 Conclusion


39


40

5 Appendix A





41



Source IPCC 2007





42










43






44

6 Appendix B




45
































46













































45 Conclusion

5 Appendix A















36








37










38


45 Conclusion


39


40

5 Appendix A





41



Source IPCC 2007





42










43






44

6 Appendix B




45
































46













































45 Conclusion

5 Appendix A












37










38


45 Conclusion


39


40

5 Appendix A





41



Source IPCC 2007





42










43






44

6 Appendix B




45
































46













































45 Conclusion

5 Appendix A














38


45 Conclusion


39


40

5 Appendix A





41



Source IPCC 2007





42










43






44

6 Appendix B




45
































46













































45 Conclusion

5 Appendix A






45 Conclusion


39


40

5 Appendix A





41



Source IPCC 2007





42










43






44

6 Appendix B




45
































46













































45 Conclusion

5 Appendix A






40

5 Appendix A





41



Source IPCC 2007





42










43






44

6 Appendix B




45
































46













































45 Conclusion

5 Appendix A





5 Appendix A





41



Source IPCC 2007





42










43






44

6 Appendix B




45
































46













































45 Conclusion

5 Appendix A







Source IPCC 2007





42










43






44

6 Appendix B




45
































46













































45 Conclusion

5 Appendix A














43






44

6 Appendix B




45
































46













































45 Conclusion

5 Appendix A










44

6 Appendix B




45
































46













































45 Conclusion

5 Appendix A





6 Appendix B




45
































46













































45 Conclusion

5 Appendix A




































46













































45 Conclusion

5 Appendix A





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