climate change in new york findings of the ucs northeast climate impacts assessment and the cornell...
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Climate Change in New York
Findings of the UCSNortheast Climate Impacts
Assessmentand
The Cornell Climate Impacts InitiativeArt DeGaetano
Professor, Dept. of Earth and Atmospheric Science, Cornell University
Director Northeast Regional Climate Center
The Climate of New York is Already Changing
• Annual temperatures across New York have warmed almost 2º F since 1970
• Winter temperatures have warmed by nearly 5° F since 1970
• The date of the last spring frost has become 1 week earlier since 1950
• There are about 2 more days >90°F since 1970
Northeast Winter Temp
Significant Change in Winter Climate!
38.5
39
39.5
40
40.5
41
41.5
42
42.5
30 31 32 33 34 35 36
Latit
ude
(o N)
Winter (DJF) Mean Temperature (o F)
Boston
New York
Philadelphia
Washington, DC
4.8oF
4.8o
The Precipitation Climatology is also Changing
• Average rainfall has increased by more than 3 inches since 1950
• There is about one more 2 inch rainfall per year since 1950
• Snow fall has declined by as much a 20 inches in some parts of the state since 1970
• In Lake Effect areas, there has been a long term increase in snowfall
New York Extreme Precipitation Events (>2 inches in 48 hrs)
These Changes Affect Design Criteria for Flooding
Central Park1940 - 1960 1970-2006
2-yr 3.10 3.86
50-yr 6.21 7.31
100-yr 7.22 8.39
2-yr 2.43 2.49
50-yr 4.46 5.73
100-yr 5.08 6.86
Ithaca
Lake Effect Snow
Adirondacks Snow Cover
What About Beyond 2007?
Anthropogenic Forcing
Clicker Question
• What are the major sources of anthropogenic methane
a) Landfills
b) Fossil fuel combustion
c) Agriculture
d) Plastic manufacturing
Emission Scenarios
Source: IPCC 2001
HIGHER
A1FI
LOWER
B1
Projecting Climate
From Global to Local Scale
Projections and Observations
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
tem
pera
ture
cha
nge
( o F
)
observationshigher emissionslower emissions
22ooF warming since F warming since 19701970
Higher: 6.5-12.5Higher: 6.5-12.5ooFF
Lower: 3.5-6.5Lower: 3.5-6.5ooFF
Source: NECIA, 2007 (see: www.climatechoices.org/ne/)
Timing of Seasons
By 2070-2099:
• Spring will be arriving earlier by 1-2 weeks (lower) or almost 3 weeks (higher)
• The growing season is projected to be extended by 4 weeks (lower) and up to 6 weeks (higher)
• Summer is expected to arrive earlier by 1-1.5 weeks (lower) or 3 weeks (higher) and stay longer by 2 weeks (lower) or 3 weeks (higher)
Lilacs: 4 days earlierApples: 9 days earlierGrapes: 6 days earlier
Increasing annual precipitation
Extreme Precipitation• Heavy rainfall events are becoming more frequent across
the Northeast• Under both emissions scenarios
– rainfall is expected to become more intense. – periods of heavy rainfall are expected to become more frequent.
Anticipating Impacts• Geographic scope: Nine Northeast states,
• Sectoral scope: coastal, marine, forests,
agriculture, winter recreation, health,
solutions.
• Analytic approach: Assess potential
impacts of climate change through 2100
under lower and higher scenarios of
greenhouse gas emissions
Sea-Level Rise
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100
pro
ject
ed
glo
ba
l me
an
se
a le
vel r
ise
(cm
))
Higher emissions
Lower emissions
uncertainty in SLR from thermal expansion
uncertainty in SLR from ice melt
These estimates do not include the potential for additional increases due to more rapid melting of major polar ice sheets.
Higher: 8-33 inchesHigher: 8-33 inches
Lower: 4-21 inchesLower: 4-21 inches
Associated Press
Clicker Question
What causes more than 50% of this sea level rise?
a) Melting of mountain glaciersb) Melting of Greenlandc) Melting of Antarcticad) Thermal expansion of water
Credit: Applied Science Associates, Inc.. Source: Google, Sanborn Map Company, Inc.. NECIA, 2007 (see: www.climatechoices.org/ne/).
NYC : Today’s 100-Year Flood Could Occur Every 10 Years under the Higher-Emissions Scenario
•More Coastal Erosion
•Wetland Inundation and Loss
Lake Ontario Levels
Impacts on Human Health•Extreme Heat
•Air Quality
•Pollen Allergens
Heatwaves and Temperature Extremes: New York City
Photo credit: Associated Press
Source: NECIA, 2007
(see: www.climatechoices.org/ne/)
Increasing Risk of Poor Air Quality
Changes in Suitable Climate Conditions For Different Forest Types by Late-Centuryspruce/fir: Anastasiya Maksymenko; maple: Birthe Lunau; oak: Dave White;
ash: Chad Davis; loblolly: Kentucky Division of Forestry. Source: NECIA, 2007 (see: www.climatechoices.org/ne/). Jerry and Marcy Monkman
Impacts on Agriculture
•Dairy
•Crops
•Pests and
Weeds
Percent Years Meeting 1000-hr Winter-Chill Requirement
(dark orange- most years meet requirement)
Days Below -4 F (dark orange- potential spread of
Kudzu range)
July Dairy Thermal Heat Index (THI > 72 (yellow-orange to red)
reduces milk production)
The Changing Face of Winter
Intraresearch, d.b.a. MapMart
Source: NECIA, 2007 (see: www.climatechoices.org/ne/)
Key Climate and Impacts Findings
• Changes consistent with global warming are already evident across New York
• Over next few decades, changes similar under both emissions scenarios
• By mid-century, most changes are greater under the higher scenario
• By late-century, under the higher scenario many changes almost twice those seen with lower emissions
Meeting the Climate Challenge
•Reducing Emissions
•Adapting to unavoidable climate change
Keys to Adaptation
• Electric power
• Renewable energy
• Buildings
• Transportation
• Industry
• Forest/agricultural land management
• Methane recovery
Reducing New York Emissions
Harbec Plastics
Yahoo!/REUTERS/Ray Stubblebine
Available for download at: http://www.climatechoices.org
Questions?