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CAERPHILLY STANDING CONFERENCE

EXPLORING FUTURE GENERATIONS &

FUTURE TRENDS

Dr. Alan Netherwood

[email protected]

22ND MARCH 2016

Honorary Research Fellow School of Planning & Geography

Cardiff University

What we mean by future

generations.

The difficulty of focusing on

their needs.

What the Act is asking us

to do differently.

How we might account for

future generations’ needs

Exercise:

How might future trends

impact on Caerphilly

County Borough?

How the approach of the

Council and the PSB might

to change?

How might the Council and

partners develop a culture

which encourages long

term approaches?

mailto:[email protected]

What did we learn through Future Generations

work in the WLGA – 2008-15?

Tools and exercises

• Generation 2050 Report: Decision Making

• Future CBC Scenarios (Economy, Energy,

Climate, Food )

• Building 2050 scenarios webinar

• Swansea 2040 Ward scenarios

• Newport 2050 Ward scenarios

Learning:

• Communities can engage on the long term

• Scenarios are a good way to shift timeframes

• Scenarios work for both ‘big issues’ and

households

• Municipalities see value in working to mid

century

• Data can help but is not the most important thing

http://www.wlga.gov.uk/well-being-of-future-generations-act-

early-adopter-resources-and-materials/

Asking questions

on behalf of future

generations is

really important

http://www.wlga.gov.uk/well-being-of-future-generations-act-early-adopter-resources-and-materials/






















Representing the needs of future generations is difficult

Presentism - citizens discount the

future so democratic process

follows suit –its characteristics:

• neglects long term risks, citizens

not yet born

• maximises the interests of

immediate descendants

• temporal limits on politics, policy

and finance

• discounts, rather than accounts

for needs of future generations

Professor Dennis

F. Thompson

Harvard Kennedy

School

Governance for future generations:

On behalf of future generations can current

decision makers:

o express perspectives for future citizens?

o act as a surrogate for future citizens?

o identify neglected issues and priorities?

o protect capacity for decision making?

o determine whether policies/actions provide

greater utility or less utility?

“Institutions built for

yesterday”

Do unto future

generations as you

would have past

generations do unto

you” (John Rawls)

What do we mean by ‘future generations’?

Future Generation Education (16)

Employment (54 years)

Retirement (70)

Passes Away (80)

8 year old (2008) 2024 2026 -2078 2078 2088

4 year old (2012) 2028 2028 - 2082 2082 2092

2 year old (2014) 2030 2030 - 2084 2084 2094

Born in 2016 2032 2032 - 2086 2086 2096

Born in 2026 2042 2042 - 2096 2096 2106

Born in 2036 2052 2052 - 2106 2106 2116

Born in 2046 2062 2062 - 2116 2116 2126

Jim Poole’s model – span of emotional attachment

Generational Foresight : A Carmarthenshire ‘citizen’

Born 2006

Leaves School 2024

Graduates 2027

First Job 2028

Next generation born 2033 - 2040

Career 2028 -2068

Puts me in retirement

home

2046

Mortgage paid off 2068

Retires 2068

Daughter ‘Ebony’ puts

her in retirement home

2090

Born 2033

Leaves School 2051

Graduates 2051

First Job 2052

Next generation born 2060 - 2067

Career 2052 - 2092

Puts Evie in retirement

home

2090

Mortgage paid off 2092

Retires 2092

Daughter ‘Emma’ puts

her in retirement home

2113

Evie Netherwood (currently aged 9)

Ebony Netherwood (tba 2033)

What do we mean by ‘current’

generations’?

Current Generation Employment up to 70

Retirement (70)

Supported care (up to 80)

16 year old (2000) 54 years to go 2070 up to 2080






76 year old (1940) retired 2010 Up to 2020

Why wouldn’t we plan across generations (Generation is 25 years)

and consider their needs in well-being assessments?

Where do we ‘do’ long term well – and

where do we need to improve?

Good long term stuff for future

generations?

Where might we need to improve our

legacy for future generations?

o Early years intervention

o Health

o Land use planning

o Waste

o Housing

o Economy

o Poverty

o Education

o Unsustainable resource use

• water

• energy

• minerals

o Infrastructure we rely on

• roads

• energy

• flooding

o Natural systems we rely on

• water

• land and soils

• biodiversity

This might be a good

first question to ask

during the assessment

and well-being plan

development.

What if the Act

works and we

successfully look

after the needs of

future generations

as we navigate our

way through the next

34 years to 2040

What might this

mean for Caerphilly

County Borough?

Major trends from Foresighting work with WLGA: Climate Adaptation Resource Scarcity Energy Security Food Security Water Security Ageing Population Poorer Health Austerity – less public money Employment

We would have adapted well to climate change predicted by 2040 and be planning for a changing future….

Renewables technology would have limited fuel poverty and increased sufficiency

Our energy supplies would be secure despite resource conflict abroad Our electricity grid would be well adapted for microgeneration

Our transport infrastructure is still usable even though we had to let some roads ‘go’ Rural communities receive grants to maintain vital ‘B’ roads

Early intervention in the 2020s has meant high literacy and numeracy High levels of skills are translated into small scale businesses across Caerphilly CBC Which all have good broadband!

Public sector still serves the community and provides many jobs………

……and Caerphilly’s ‘green economy’ is booming using its rich natural assets ……. sustainable approaches to agriculture, horticulture, energy production and tourism

Farmers now store water and supply a water grid for business use and irrigation

The County Borough’s landscape is being managed

to capture flood water, grow food and fuel and

maintain pollinators

Council investment portfolios have been used in public/private partnerships and to make our infrastructure last

to build affordable homes

Our systems of government, public funding, taxation and investment all work with the future in mind Looking after the needs of the next generation….. They are held accountable.

Incrementalism?

…….or shift of culture in

public services?

Response to the

Future Generations

Act…..

What is the Act asking us to do differently

than normal with regard to Future

Generations?

General

• take account of the long term

• help to prevent problems

occurring by understanding their

root causes and effects

• needs of the present are met

without compromising the ability

of future generations to meet their

own needs

• future liveability

• use the Future Trends Report*

and other evidence on long term

trends

• Look 10 -25 years ahead (in

some contexts longer)

• be reviewed by Future

Generations Commissioner

Overview & Scrutiny and WAO

For the assessment

*Public bodies ‘must’ refer to the

future trends report when preparing

the well-being assessment

An accurate analysis of the state of

well-being in each community and the

areas as a whole

Capture the strengths and assets of

their people and communities (in

localities)

Community level analysis

Include predictions of likely future

trends for an area

Long term needs of an area as well as

the short term

Situational analysis = broad picture?

Response analysis = so what?

Future generations and future trends.

What could good look like?

Current

State

Future

Scenarios

Future

Risks

Future

Opportunities

Future

Communities

Future

Citizens

Well-being

objectives

We know

what the key

strategic

issues are for

current

communities

and the area

We have

explored

how future

trends

might

impact on

this ‘state’

We

understand

what the

likely

future risks

are in our

area

We understand

what the likely

future

opportunities

are within our

area

We understand

how these risks

and

opportunities

might impact on

future

generations in

particular

localities.

We can

use this

data to

think

about

impacts

on

particular

groups

of

citizens.

We can use

this analysis

to inform

our well-

being

objectives

for the area:

The wellbeing assessment considers state, place and citizen

from the perspective of future generations

Future Public Bodies

We can use this to think about

the role of public service

providers in the future. This

could to help us to reshape our

services.

A model approach to future generations

Conclusions?

The effectiveness of the Act in Caerphilly County Borough will be determined by how it is interpreted by the bodies it covers Strong opportunity v compliance I hope across Wales it means our public bodies adopt: • Alternative models of delivery • Innovation instead of risk

aversion • A mid century focus • Governance for future

generations • A positive way of accounting

for instead of discounting their needs

Task 1- Future Trends and

Caerphilly County Borough

How might long term trends

manifest themselves in the

Borough?

How might trends interact

with each other?

Which are the long term

trends which will need

most attention to maintain

well being in

communities?

Record the key 5 long term

trends on a flipchart.

20 minutes

Trends which you might like to discuss:*

Energy security

Food security

Water security

Multigenerational poverty

Infrastructural resilience

Employment patterns

Community cohesion

Health trends

Climate Adaptation

Resource Scarcity

Ageing Population

Austerity – less public money

Rural economies

Town economies

Housing need

Task 2- What might the Council

and PSB need to do differently?

How might strategy alter?

Will priorities alter?

Will this alter the way bodies work together?

Might you need different evidence?

How might decision making be affected?

Record up to 5 ways that you think current

practices might need to adapt to account

for future trends and future generations

20 minutes

Things you might want to think

about:

• Well-being Assessment

• Well Being Plan

• Objectives and Goals

• Governance

• Data needs

• Representation

• Involvement

• Reporting

• Scrutiny

• Finance

• Investment

• Corporate Planning

• Business Planning

• Risk Management

Task 3- Developing a

long term culture

How might public bodies

develop a culture which

encourages long term

approaches – despite short

term pressures?

Record up to 5 ways this

could be encouraged in

organisations within the

partnership.

(Don’t just say training –

what sort of training – doing

what and why ?!)

20 minutes

Things you might want to think

about:

• Reporting

• Assessments

• Business processes

• Performance Management

• Staff appraisal

• Scenario Planning

• Scrutiny

• Community engagement

• Officier/member working

• Evidence

• Staff engagement

• Communications

CAERPHILLY STANDING CONFERENCE

EXPLORING FUTURE GENERATIONS &

FUTURE TRENDS - PLENARY

Your thinking on

FUTURE TRENDS ?

Your thinking on

ADAPTING WAYS OF WORKING?

Your thinking on

LONG TERM CULTURE?

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