bosch powertrain strategies - umtribosch powertrain strategies powertrain strategies for the 21 st...

BOSCH POWERTRAIN STRATEGIES

Powertrain Strategies for the 21st Century ConferenceUniversity of MichiganJuly 19th, 2017

Richard Kohler, Director of Marketing & Product Management

Bosch Powertrain Strategies

GS/MBL-NA - R. Kohler | 14/07/2017© 2017 Robert Bosch LLC and affiliates. All rights reserved.

2

Agenda

Is the US moving away from globally consistent powertrain development?

How do we analyze technology needs for the future?

What is the long term trajectory of powertrain development?

Who is Bosch, and how do we develop powertrain for a complex global market?

WHO IS BOSCH?

AND HOW DO WE DEVELOP POWERTRAIN FOR A COMPLEX GLOBAL MARKET?


C/CCR1-US | 14/07/2017© 2017 Robert Bosch LLC and affiliates. All rights reserved.

4

Ownership

80.9billion dollars in sales in 2016approx. 390,000associates

4Mobility Solutions

Industrial Technology

Energy and Building Technology

Consumer Goods

Business sectors and divisions

Mobility SolutionsWorld's largest supplier ofcutting-edge automotivetechnology

Industrial Technology

Energy and Building Technology

Leading in drive and controltechnology, packaging, and process technology

Leading manufacturer of thermo and building security technology; World‘s largest supplier of heat pumps

Who is Bosch?

92% Robert Bosch Stiftung (Charitable Foundation)

7% Bosch family

1% Robert Bosch GmbH

276 manufacturing sites

Consumer GoodsWorld's largest power tool Manufacturer.Leading the field in house-hold appliances

Gasoline Systems | GS/MBL-NA | 5/31/2016© 2016 Robert Bosch LLC and affiliates. All rights reserved.

9

Electronic Control Units for Diesel and Gasoline Systems

Gasoline SystemsDiverse Product Portfolio to Support all Powertrain Variants

Port Fuel Injection Direct Fuel Injection Air Management

Transmission Control Fuel SupplyContinuously Variable Transmissions

Hybrid, Electric Vehicles

Sensors for Diesel and Gasoline Systems

Engineering and SystemsSolutions

Joint VenturesRobert Bosch Battery

SystemsLithium Energy and Power GmbH & Co.

KG

EM-motive GmbH

GS/MBL-NA | 14/07/2017© 2017 Robert Bosch LLC and affiliates. All rights reserved.

6

Bosch Powertrain StrategiesGS Worldwide Network – Local Support

China

Vietnam

Aranjuez

Saint-QuenBudapest

Vienna

Campinas

Toluca

Anderson

Farmington HillsEngels

Bangalore

Chongqing

Xi‘an

Shanghai

WuxiWuhu

BudweisTilburg

Turin

Europa

India

Gangaikonda

Russia

San Luis Potosi

Moscow

Springboro

Liuzhou

Amata CityThailand

Odawara-City

Daejeon

Yokohama

SeoulYongin-si

Korea Japan

Higashimatsuyama

Bursa

Ho Chi Minh City

Blaj

Jakarta

Indonesia

Mailand

Coventry

Eisenach

BambergNürnberg

RutesheimWaiblingenMünchen

Blaichach

Buehlertal

Salzgitter

Schwieberdingen

Feuerbach

Frankfurt

Braunschweig

Köln

Charleston

Marketing and Product Management

Sales Offices

ProductionP

Research & DevelopmentR&D

S

M MM

M

M

M

M

M

M

MM

M

MM

M

P

PP

PP

P

P

P

P

P

P

P

P

P

PP

P

PP

P

P

PP

P

P

R&D

R&D

R&D

R&DR&D

R&D

R&D R&D

R&D

R&D

R&D

R&D

R&D

R&D

R&D

R&D

R&D

R&D

R&D

R&D

R&D

R&D

R&D

R&D

R&D

S

S SS

S

S

S

S

SS

SS

SS

SS

SIngolstadtS

R&D

M

M

S

S

P

R&D

R&DR&D

R&DP

P

North America

South America Germany

Production R&D Sales Offices

Marketing and PRM

28 30 20 16

We have a global-local presence: we are present wherever our partners need us, and we understand our customers and markets

In North America: we have…the entire value chain, local development expertise, full system support

Electric vehicles, passenger cars, commercial vehicles & OH**

GS/OFE-P, DS/OFE-S | 14/07/2017© 2017 Robert Bosch LLC and affiliates. All rights reserved.

7 GS/OFE-P, DS/OFE-S | 15.02.2017© Robert Bosch GmbH 2016. All rights reserved, also regarding any disposal, exploitation, reproduction, editing, distribution, as well as in the event of applications for industrial property rights.

Powertrain Solutions: One business division. Three segments.

Mobility will be electric in the long run Market will be growing strongly Technology is our differentiator

New emission regulations push today’s technology

Growing importance of hybrid technology

Diesel is the dominant technology Demand for alternative technologies,

e.g. Hybrids Future Demand of FCEV expected

Passenger cars* Commercial vehicles & OH**Electric vehicles

* incl. Hybrids** Off-Highway

Gasoline Systems and Diesel Systems divisions become Powertrain Solutions

WHAT IS THE LONG TERM TRAJECTORY OF POWERTRAIN DEVELOPMENT?

Autonomous

GS/NE-NA | 14/07/2017© 2017 Robert Bosch LLC and affiliates. All rights reserved.

9

Future Powertrain

Gasoline

Diesel

Electric /range extender

Gasoline

Electric / fuel cell

Diesel

Electric /battery

Alternativefuels

Hybrid

New combustion concepts

Diesel

Alternative fuels

Electric /range extender

Hybrid

Gasoline

2000 2009 today future

Gasoline / 48V

Hybrid

New combustion concepts

Diesel

Alternative fuels

Gasoline

near term

Electric / fuel cell

Electric /battery

Electric /battery



10

Market Development by Powertrain Type (per Region)

26.7

1.9

12.90.2

0.1

IN

5.7

2.33.1

8.4

1.91.00.5

US

1.4

JP

4.2

0.22.30.8 0.6

EU28

18.4

8.1

2.5

4.0

1.14.3

7.5

1.60.5

0.2

16.4

0.1

CN

1.01.41.1

0.3

0.30.3

IN

8.7

3.4

4.6

0.3 0.3

CN

2.1

JP

4.2

0.12.0

31.2

0.4 1.02.4

2.5

12.1

0.9

10.9

1.02.4

2.6

US

0.6

17.5

1.0

4.3

7.3

1.61.9

1.4

EU28

19.2

7.2

2.2

3.4

GDI

CNG

HEV

PHEV

EV

Diesel

PFI

2020 2025

pure ICE


GS/MBL-NA | 14/07/2017© 2017 Robert Bosch LLC and affiliates. All rights reserved.

11

NAFTA Light-Duty Vehicle Production

63% 49% 47% 46%

5% 8% 9% 9%

32%

42%41% 40%

1%

4%5%

2007 2017 2020 2023

WC

AP

EU

US

41%

21% 19%

52%

68% 67%

1%

5% 8%6%6%

7%

2017 2020 2023

Diesel

EV

G-(P)DI

G-PFI

1% 5% 7%0%

6%

10%

52%

54%

51%

32%

26%21%

15%

10%10%

2017 2020 2023

8-10

6

4

3

0 (EV)

6% 5% 4%

47%

16%

4%

25%

46%

52%

4%

3%

2%

14%

17%21%

1%5% 8%

3%8% 10%

2017 2020 2023

Hybrid

EV

CVT

DCT

AT 8+

AT 6/7

MT

OEM Energy & Fuel Injection Strategy

Engine Size Transmission Strategy

Mature Market with West Coast OEMs taking share Continued Growth in G-DI Continued Engine DZ, still

10% V8 in 2023Dominant 8+AT with Growing CVT & e-PT

IS THE US MOVING AWAY FROM GLOBALLY CONSISTENT POWERTRAIN DEVELOPMENT?

Status 30.06.2016

CAFE LT/MDV

CAFE PC

CO2g/km

l/100 km

8,67,5

6,45,7

4,33,8

2,11,9

gasolinediesel

130

175EU LCV

EU PC

95

98 CAFE PC

137 CAFE LT147

114 / 119 / 119

adoptedvision

183166

118

143166

189

217

229

(68…78 EU COM)

?

EU US CAFE Japan China Korea

95 CAFC PC (4L/100km)

LEVIII FTP TestingLEVIINMOG 0.035 g/mi NMOG+NOx 0.1 g/mi fleet average 0.030 g/mi SULEV

Phase 5 Step 2EU5 / OBD

Phase 6 Stage1WLTPC, EU6c limits, PM/PN all SI

Phase 6 Stage 2WLTC, 0.5*EU6c limits, PM 3mg/km, PM/PN all SI, RDE w CF

EU7 EU6d-tempEU5 EU6b

PN: tbdPN: 6*1011 1/kmWLTC + RDE w CFEmissions Test: NEDC

Proconve L6 Proconve L7 FTP75, 160k km, NMOG+NOx = 0.08g/km

PN: 6*1012 1/kmupon choice of manufacturer

China (Beijing) Phase 4

Phase 5 Step 1EU5

EU6d/temp partially finalizedEU7 discussion no started

China – BeijingPhase 6 draft under discussion, Beijing own reg. still open

USfixed

PM CARB 10mg/mi 3mg/mi 1mg/mi

Proconve L5 Brazil L7 under discussion

2010

2010 2015 2020 2025

EU6d

No PN limit

Global Regulations Summary


13 1) Converted into g CO2/km from Miles per gallon, 2) Converted into g CO2/km from l/100km

US

: CA

FE =

Cor

pora

te A

vera

ge F

uel E

cono

my,

PC

= P

ass.

Car

s, L

T / L

DT

= Li

ght T

ruck

s (p

ick-

ups,

van

s, S

UV

s), M

D(P

)V

= M

ediu

m D

uty

(Pas

s.)

Veh

icle

s;

EU

: CO

2 fle

et ta

rget

s, P

C =

Pas

s. C

ars,

LC

V =

Lig

ht C

omm

erci

al V

ehic

les;

Jap

an a

nd K

orea

PC

fuel

effi

cien

cy ta

rget

s; C

hina

: C

AFC

= C

orpo

rate

Ave

rage

Fue

l Con

sum

ptio

n ta

rget

s fo

r PC

Dat

a sh

own

are

mea

sure

d in

diff

eren

t tes

t cyc

les

with

diff

eren

t pro

cedu

res,

ther

efor

e da

ta a

re n

ot d

irect

ly

Com

para

ble

Con

vers

ion

to C

O2

g/km

from

mpg

, km

/l an

d l/1

00km

usi

ng re

gion

al fu

el c

onve

rsio

n fa

ctor

s;

for s

cale

EU

con

vers

ion

fact

ors

2010



14

Regional Implementation - US

2014 2016 2017 2018 2020 2021 2022 2025 Regulator Impact

FE / CO2CO2: EPA

FE: NHTSA

ZEV

California + 9 states

EmissionsCalifornia-ARB

Federal-EPA

OBDFederal

Drives engineering services:• New data parameters• New monitoring strategies

ARB LEV III Phase-In (2025: 30mg NOx+HC, 1mg PM)

EPA Tier3 Phase-In (2025: 30mg NOx+HC, 3mg PM)

CAFE: MY2012-2016 (34.1mpg)

CAFE: MY2017-2021 MY2022-2025 -- 44.4mpg --54.5mpg

Additional requirements expected every 2 years

ARB ZEV: large volume OEMs must sell BEV/PHEV/FCEV vehicles

Requirement grows to 10% of sales by 2025

Midterm Evaluation of CAFE & GHG MY2022-2025 Targets



15

Market Drivers – Beyond RegulationRegulationsDemographics

Technology Business ModelsAutonomous driving

ElectrificationBattery

V2V connectivity

HOW DO WE ANALYSE TECHNOLOGY NEEDS FOR THE FUTURE?

Passenger Car Fleet MY 2016 – With MY 2015 Credits

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

43 43.5 44 44.5 45 45.5 46 46.5 47 47.5 480

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

43 43.5 44 44.5 45 45.5 46 46.5 47 47.5 48

Future Powertrain


17

GH

G E

mis

sion

s (g

/mi)

Footprint (ft2)

% Improvement Required to Reach 2025 GHG Target Based on MY2016 Portfolio

General Motors41%

Ford39%

FCA44%

Honda33%

Toyota31%

Nissan31%

Mercedes42%

BMW39%

Hyundai37%

VW40%

Source: Wards 2016

Mazda31%

Subaru42%

2016

2025

Future Powertrain


18

CO2 Requirements US – Vehicle Footprint

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

350.0

400.0

450.0

500.0

550.0

25.0 27.5 30.0 32.5 35.0 37.5 40.0 42.5 45.0 47.5 50.0 52.5 55.0 57.5 60.0 62.5 65.0

CO2

Prod

uctio

n [g

/mi]

Vehicle Footprint [ft^2]Compact Car Large Car Midsize Car Subcompact Car

Compact Car (Hybrids) Large Car (Hybrids) Midsize Car (Hybrids) Subcompact Car (Hybrids)

2016 Target

2021 Target2025 Target

240 g/mi Example

4cyl 2.0LPort Fuel Inj.6-Speed AT1445 Kg

Future Powertrain


19

CO2 Reduction Roadmap NA

6-8%

DZDI

1-2%

DZDI

Miller high ɛcEGRSGDI

12-13%

5-6%

CDA

4-5%

DI

240g/mi

Com

pact

Car

4 C

yl. 2

.0l P

FI, A

T6, 1

275K

g

Potential

CO

2re

duct

ion 34%

Engine Measures Powertrain Measures

StartStop

1-2%ε≈9.5

Vh=1,4ε≈12,5Vh=1,4

ε≈11Vh=2.0

ε≈10Vh=2.0

+50%

HEV

6%

BRS48VP1m

2%

FRε≈10

Vh=2.0ε≈10

5-8%

CVTor

AT8+

Target

158g/mi

2025

21%

Target

190g/mi

2021ɛ = Compression RatioFR = Friction ReductionDI = Direct InjectionDZ = Downsizing w/ TurboSGDI = Stratified Lean BurnCDA = Cylinder Deactivationhigh ɛ = High Compression BRS = Boost Rec. SystemCVT = Continuous Variable Tra.cEGR = Cooled Exhaust GasAT8+ = 8/9/10 speed

Simulation for FTP75 test cycle

~16%

StartStop

Coast

off cyclefuel

econ.

11-14%

BRS48V

&AT8+

Water

ε≈12Vh=2.0

3-6%



21

Bringing it together

Macro trends and business models support regulatory push to reduce CO2 in US

Future technology needs at macro level are developed by understanding individual OEM gaps and technology portfolio.

Electric (battery and fuel cell) is the future. But how to get there is the trick

Bosch portfolio covers all options for powertrain, with global products and local focus

bosch powertrain strategies - umtribosch powertrain strategies powertrain strategies for the 21 st...

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