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Asia Regional Summary

January 2016

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Executive Summary HIGH RISK

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December saw the resumption of high-level bilateral talks between India and Pakistan, with

PM Modi making a surprise visit to Islamabad. Meanwhile in India’s Chennai, extensive

widespread flooding underscored the need for clients to maintain adequate up-to-date

emergency procedures when operating in India. Anti-state militants in Pakistan were again

able to carry out a major attack against government interests, as over 20 were killed in a

suicide attack on a government office outside Peshawar. Further afield, to the south in the

Maldives, senior officials and associated firms were hit with fresh EU sanctions, due to

concerns over human rights amidst continued political uncertainty. To the northeast in

Bangladesh, a reported suicide blast shed further light on the growing threat towards

minorities as militancy continues to escalate. Meanwhile, elections on December 30 in

Bangladesh further underlined the pervasive problem of political violence in the country.

In Southeast Asia, Malaysia’s lingering sectarian issues were highlighted with a large-scale

mob fight at a Kuala Lumpur mall, while Indonesia thwarts several attempts by

transnational jihadists to carry out attacks during the Christmas and New Year’s holiday

period. The Philippines meanwhile saw fresh threats from the Islamic State (IS), while the

government further intensified operations Muslim insurgents in the far south amidst a

coordinated and deadly assault on a Mindanao Christian village by a local Moro Islamist

separatist group. Furthermore, in Myanmar, the US government eased sanctions to some

degree on the heels of the November national elections which saw the opposition reach a

significant victory.

In East Asia, the existence of violent radical elements within the overall opposition

movement was noted by a small blast outside the Legislative Council building on December

9. In Japan, an agreement with South Korea over the issue of so-called comfort women was

reached, yet anti-South Korea sentiments remain. In Seoul, the government’s limited

tolerance for violent or unruly protests was highlighted by the arrest of the KCTU President

following a violent protest in November. Taiwan readies for national elections in January

2016, which are predicted to see the opposition assume power. China, meanwhile, sees

several high-profile pollution warnings, whilst the government introduces new anti-

terrorism laws, as the government seeks further support for its counter insurgency

campaign in Xinjiang.

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The following list contains countries in the region with notable developments from the past month. Please choose your country of interest by clicking on its name below.

HIGH RISK

Pakistan ................................................................................................................... 4

MEDIUM RISK

Bangladesh ............................................................................................................... 5

China ....................................................................................................................... 6

India ........................................................................................................................ 7

Indonesia ................................................................................................................. 8

Malaysia .................................................................................................................. 9

Myanmar ............................................................................................................... 10

Philippines.............................................................................................................. 11

Sri Lanka ................................................................................................................ 12

Thailand ................................................................................................................. 13

Vietnam ................................................................................................................. 14

LOW RISK

Hong Kong .............................................................................................................. 15

Japan ..................................................................................................................... 16

Maldives ................................................................................................................ 17

South Korea ............................................................................................................ 18

Taiwan ................................................................................................................... 19

Notable Dates for January 2016 ............................................................................................. 20

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Suspected suicide attack leaves at least 22 dead, upwards of 40 wounded in Mardan,

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province on December 29.

Debate on Rangers’ extension in Sindh highlights enduring tensions between the

Provincial Sindh government and the Federal government on this controversial issue.

We advise against all nonessential travel to Pakistan given the heightened threat of

militancy, criminality, kidnappings and sectarian tensions throughout the country.

Suspected suicide attack leaves at least 22 dead in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province (KPK)

The attack on December 29 occurred near the National Database and Registration Authority

(NADRA) office in Mardan of the KPK, in which a suicide bomber on a motorbike struck lines

of people waiting to enter the facility. Jamaat-ul-Ahrar (TTPJA), a splinter faction of the

Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) purportedly claimed responsibility for the attack. The

suspected suicide bombing came in the wake of recurrent alerts by the US embassy regarding

possible militant attacks in Islamabad or Karachi, ahead of Christmas and the New Year.

Despite intensified military operations, which seek to dismantle or degrade militant groups

such as the TTP, from the KPK and the northwest tribal regions, the December 29 blast

underscores the unrelenting ubiquitous threat of militancy within Pakistan. Since the KPK

remains vulnerable to infiltration due to its close proximity to the tribal areas, further mass

casualty attacks should be expected in the region over the coming months. The TTPJA’s claim

that it targeted the NADRA office because it represents the Pakistani government, highlights

a frequent tactic employed by militant groups to target government locales as a means of

retaliating against military operations and undermining the government’s control within the

KPK. In this regard government institutions, of all types, are likely to remain high value targets

for militant attacks in the future.

Debate on Sindh Rangers’ extension, special powers in Sindh Province

Following its expiry on December 5, the federal government decided to extend the

paramilitary group’s ‘special powers’, to help the Rangers curb militancy and violent

criminality in Sindh Province, and the metropolis of Karachi. The Sindh Provincial Assembly

(PA) led by the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), passed a resolution allowing a conditional

extension limiting the Rangers’ powers. The PA decision was met with widespread activism by

opposition elements and traders. However, on December 22, the Interior Ministry restored

full powers to the Sindh Rangers for an additional 60 days, citing the provincial government’s

limits in amending federal laws.

These incidents underscore enduring political tensions between the PA and the federal

government regarding the special powers, as well as the Rangers’ popularity among the

public, given their role in reducing violence in the Karachi. Meanwhile, Rangers are likely to

intensify operations during the 60-day period, in a bid to project effectiveness and garner

additional public support for the paramilitary unit.

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HIGH RISK Notable Dates

Pakistan

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Continued Islamist militant attacks, including suicide attack, against religious minorities in

Bangladesh.

Political violence accompanies December 30 mayoral elections throughout Bangladesh.

Travel to Dhaka and Chittagong should be for business essential purposes only at this

time, given ongoing reports of violence emanating from political instability and

militancy.

Continued Islamist militant attacks against religious minorities in Bangladesh

Several militant attacks were recorded in Bangladesh in December. For instance, on December

10, nine people were wounded in a militant attack on a Hindu temple in Dinajpur district. Later

on December 25, in an apparent and rare suicide bombing, one person was killed and 10 more

were wounded. On December 27, transnational Islamist group Islamic State (IS) claimed

responsibility for the attack. Meanwhile, on December 24 and 28, security forces conducted

raids on Jamaatul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) hideouts.

The attacks underscore the continuing and recently strengthening threat of militancy in

Bangladesh, particularly to religious minorities. Minorities have been targeted in the past, yet

it appears attacks are becoming more frequent and intensifying, to some degree. This could

be the result of JMB possibly intensifying its operations in recent months. Given IS’ praise for

the local militant group JMB, combined with the fact that suicide bombings are more rare in

Bangladesh, there exists a possibility of an existing or eventual IS-JMB operational nexus,

where JMB conducts the operations and IS claims responsibility. This though is not confirmed.

In the coming days and weeks, we assess that there is a heightened risk of further attacks,

despite the security clampdown, especially in the run up to Biswa Ijetima, the second largest

Muslim congregation after the hajj, slated to start from January 10.

Political violence accompanies December 30 mayoral elections throughout Bangladesh

The mayoral elections was accompanied by numerous incidences of violence, both prior and

during polling across Bangladesh. More than 100 people were wounded in separate incidents

from December 20 to December 30. More than 100 were wounded on December 30. One

person was killed in a clash between opposing factions belonging to the Awami League and

voting in at least 50 centers was suspended due to alleged malpractices. On December 31,

meanwhile, it was reported that the incumbent Awami League won the majority of seats in

the elections.

Above all, the elections underscore the pervasive problem of political violence and instability

in Bangladesh. With electoral obstruction and malpractices being reported, along with reports

of Awami League victories, elements of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) could choose

to protest or further act violently against the results over the coming days. However, the

preliminary results show that the opposition party remains largely on the defensive, and will

likely have to contend with further government targeting over the coming months.

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MEDIUM RISK Notable Dates

Bangladesh

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Stringent measures adopted against air pollution as intermittent ‘red alert’ issued by

major cities, including Beijing

Controversial anti-terror law passed amid citizens’ privacy concerns

Travel to China may continue at this time while adhering to standard security

protocols given the latent threat of militancy and crime.

Stringent measures adopted against air pollution as intermittent ‘red alert’ issued by major

cities, including Beijing

Major cities, including Beijing and Tianjin, issued intermittent ‘red alerts’ through December

for hazardous air pollution, thus leading to impromptu stringent traffic and industrial

regulations to mitigate the environmental challenges. The alert was issued in cities and

provinces which recurrently witnessed a concentration of PM 2.5 to be around or over 500

micrograms. The maiden ‘red alert’ issued in Beijing during December 8-10 came in the wake

of criticism against the administration for perceived inadequate measures against recurrent

hazardous smog levels in many cities over the preceding weeks.

There has been increasing discontent among citizens regarding the sustained high levels of

pollution, particularly attributed to the government’s perceived failure in regulating the

industrial sector. Given increasingly high energy needs, Beijing may seek to implement long-

term regulations against industries, while also possibly providing concessions for industries

with voluntary emission targets. However, the recurrent alerts, despite the limited stringent

measures, are indicative of the latent health risks and likelihood of similar alerts in the coming

days and weeks.

Controversial anti-terror law passed amid citizens’ privacy concerns on December 27

The aforementioned law would reportedly allow Beijing extensive access to pivotal

commercial data, coupled with broad censorship powers under a perceivably ambiguous

definition of terrorism, while enabling overseas military engagement in counter-militancy

operations. The said legislation is reportedly a diluted version of the originally proposed draft

legislation and aims to stem the perceived proliferation of militant activities in the country,

particularly by the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) in Xinjiang.

The possible moderation of the initial draft can be likely attributed to the foreign concerns,

including from President Obama, over the administration’s extensive powers under the

legislation’s framework. Furthermore, opponents of Beijing’s activity in Xinjiang are likely to

be increasingly concerned that China will increasingly cite growing international attention

towards Islamist militancy to further suppress all aspects associated with Uyghur separatism.

Moreover, the attempt at media obscurity regarding security operations and intrusion of

private data is likely to inspire further discontent from rights’ activists, especially those outside

of China.

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MEDIUM RISK Notable Dates

China

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MEDIUM RISK Notable Dates

India

Resumption of India-Pakistan bilateral talks as PM Modi makes rare and surprise visit

Pakistan.

Large-scale damage caused by floods in Chennai, Tamil Nadu underscore need to maintain

up-to-date emergency procedures.

Travel to India’s major cities can continue while travelers are advised to maintain

vigilance for security risks associated with crime, militancy and frequent and public large

demonstrations.

Resumption of India-Pakistan bilateral talks as PM Modi makes surprise visit Pakistan

Following a National Security Adviser-level meeting between India and Pakistan in Bangkok

on December 6, the External Affairs Ministry of both countries jointly stated that

‘Comprehensive Bilateral Talks’ are slated to resume in the upcoming months, ending a two-

year stalemate in talks. Furthermore, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi conducted an

unprecedented surprise visit to his Pakistani counterpart PM Nawaz Sharif’s Lahore residence

on December 25.

The renewed bilateral cooperation highlights the steps being taken to reconcile and negotiate

a settlement regarding a variety of contentious issues, including the state of Jammu and

Kashmir and cross-border militancy. Furthermore, while political backlash from far-right and

opposition parties for engaging with Pakistan, is likely, the abovementioned diplomatic efforts

signal a change in the policy of PM Modi and the incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party

(BJP) regarding the historically antagonistic Indo-Pak relationship. Additionally, in light of the

diplomatic developments, we assess the increased risk of Islamist militant groups

exacerbating tensions in Jammu and Kashmir or attempting to carry out attacks elsewhere in

India, in attempts to destabilize the region and impede dialogue.

Large-scale damage caused by floods in Chennai, Tamil Nadu

The state of Tamil Nadu witnessed an unprecedented amount of rainfall from mid-November

until mid-December. On December 3, state capital Chennai was declared a disaster zone, after

many parts of the city were inundated with flood water, while electricity and communication

services were unavailable. Flight operations at Chennai International Airport were suspended

from December 2 until December 6. Thousands were stranded for days, including foreigners.

The floods underscore the poor urban planning and administrative negligence that exists

across major metropolises in India and illustrates a similar threat faced by urban centers such

as Mumbai and Bangalore, which experience a heavy monsoon season. Furthermore, we

assess that susceptible urban centers will take adequate measures to secure themselves

ahead of the 2016 monsoon season, yet clients should ready up-to-date emergency

procedures in the event of extraordinary flooding.

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Counter-militancy operations foil several alleged militant plots during holiday season.

Corruption problem highlighted as Speaker of the House resigns amid corruption scandal

on December 16.

Travel to Jakarta [and/or other urban area] can continue while adhering to standard

security protocols given the threat of militancy and crime.

Counter-militancy operations foil several alleged militant plots during holiday season

In a series of arrests from December 18-19, elite counter-militancy unit Densus 88 arrested six

militants believed to have been plotting attacks on the minority Shiite community. Bomb

making equipment, a map of Greater Jakarta, and a flag associated with the Islamic State (IS)

was seized from the raid. Four suspected militants affiliated to Islamist group Jemaah

Islamiyah were arrested in East Java on December 19, on suspicions of plotting attacks on

Christian churches across Java and Sumatra. Furthermore, on December 23, two suspected

militants were arrested on the eastern border of Jakarta. One, allegedly planning to carry out

a suicide bombing, is an ethnic Uyghur, a Turkish ethnic group living primarily in Xinjiang

Province in China. In light of the perceived threat of attacks during the Christmas and New

Year holidays, Indonesian police deployed an additional 150,000 officers across 13 provinces

until January 2.

The raids coupled with the bolstered anti-militancy operations highlight the perceivably rising

threat of both homegrown as well as transnational militancy across Indonesia. Rising concerns

regarding the presence of IS-sympathetic Indonesians coupled with the recent arrests may

compel the government to review its anti-militancy strategies, whilst possibly further

intensifying operations against existing militant groups operating in Indonesia’s outlying

regions. Indonesia’s security apparatus will likely be successful in thwarting most plots, yet

there does remain an ongoing and possible growing risk of an eventual attack.

Corruption problem highlighted as Speaker of the House resigns amid corruption scandal

On December 16, House of Representatives Speaker and member of the opposition Golkar

Party, Setya Novanto, resigned from his post, minutes before the Parliament’s House Ethics

Committee (MKD) was to pronounce him guilty of an ‘ethics violation’ for demanding a 20

percent stake in a foreign-owned mining corporation, in return for extending the company’s

contract. Voice recordings from a June meeting indicate that Novanto stated these stakes

would be given to President Joko Widodo and Vice President Jusuf Kalla.

The scandal serves as a reminder of widespread corruption in Indonesia, which is frequently

ranked low across worldwide corruption indexes. While Novato’s resignation may deepen a

political vacuum in the Golkar party, the widespread coverage may have an effect on the

image of President Widodo, who has repeatedly reaffirmed his commitment to eradicating

corruption in the country.

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MEDIUM RISK Notable Dates

Indonesia

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Ethnically oriented shopping center brawls plausibly serve as indication of increasing

sectarian rift in Malaysia.

Travel to Kuala Lumpur can continue while taking necessary precautions to counter the

threat of criminality, especially during the nighttime hours. Additionally, maintain

vigilance nationwide, due to the latent threat of Islamist militancy.

Shopping mall brawls

On December 20, two people were injured when a brawl broke out at the Kota Raya

Shopping Complex in Kuala Lumpur, involving 20 men armed with sticks and machetes.

The brawl was over an alleged trade scam, between ethnic Chinese traders and Malay

consumers. The clash serves to underline communal tensions that exist in the country

between the two aforesaid groups, which is further underscored by a mid-July

heightening of tensions when several areas of Kuala Lumpur were placed under lockdown

after another brawl occurred between Chinese traders and Malay nationals. During the

brawl, five people were injured after a mob attack by a group of 50-60 people at the Low

Yat Plaza in Kuala Lumpur. Following the violence, activists deliberately linked the tensions

to race related issues. Moreover, on September 16 a pro-government rally was held by

Malaysian “red-shirts” against Chinese Malaysians, as they were believed to be behind

the anti-government Bersih 4.0 protest held on August 29-30, that attracted

approximately 200, 000 participants.

Notwithstanding, Chinese Malaysians are the second largest ethnic group in the country

and make up 24.6 percent of the country’s population, however over the past few decades

the Chinese populace has significantly decreased. Since 1983, the minority group has

decreased by over eight percent of the total population. This significant drop, could be

inciting a feeling of vulnerability amongst the minority group, resulting in a backlash

against both the government and other ethnic groups, as witnessed by the Berish 4.0 rally

and mall brawls. In turn, this backlash likely stimulates further pro-Malaysian nationalist

sentiment amongst Malays, further fueling the ethnic tensions that have long simmered

in the factious society, occasionally provoking significant intercommunal violence. In that

regard, we assess the possibility remains that given the alleged ethnic undertones of both

the aforementioned scuffles and protests, further incidences of sectarian violence or large

scale protests could be witnessed in the country in the near term.

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MEDIUM RISK Notable Dates

Malaysia

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US temporarily eases trade sanctions with Myanmar as opposition prepares to form

government.

Protests take place across country over death sentences for Myanmar nationals in

Thailand.

Travel to Naypyidaw, Mandalay and Yangon may continue at this time while adhering

to basic security protocols given the latent threat of militancy and crime.

US temporarily eases trade sanctions with Myanmar as opposition prepares to form

government

On December 7, the US Department of the Treasury issued a general license to let companies

enter into trade deals that they would normally make to ship goods and provide nonfinancial

services in the country without defying the sanctions directives. The license does not,

however, completely lift the sanctions and does not allow for transactions with individuals

who are black listed for their ties to the former military regime. According to US officials, the

decision was unrelated to the recent elections, in which opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi

won in a landslide, and was only temporary, with the White House reiterating that it was too

early to determine whether the sanctions would be dropped entirely.

The easing of US sanctions on Myanmar have been part of a wider strategy of economic

incentives towards democratization which began in 2012 after the country’s former military

leaders began opening up the country to democratic reforms. While the US government has

claimed that the decision was unrelated to the elections, this was likely a tactic employed to

ensure that the White House is not seen to be taking sides in the elections. With that in mind,

the US is liable to continue to ease sanctions if Suu Kyi’s administration is successful in its aim

of ensuring democratic governance in the country.

Protests take place across country over death sentences for Myanmar nationals in Thailand

Protests took place across Myanmar, notably in front of the Thai Embassy Yangon on

December 25, over the decision by a Thai court to sentence two Myanmar migrant workers to

death following a guilty conviction for the murder of two British tourists in 2014. Further, the

chief of Myanmar’s armed forces called on Thailand to review the decision to encourage the

junta to stay the execution. The protest in Yangon saw hundreds of people gather in front of

the embassy, demanding to see the ambassador in an attempt to plea for the men’s freedom.

Additionally, many in Myanmar, including various government and military officials, have

alleged that the men may have been tortured into giving a confession.

These protests are likely to continue to a greater or lesser extent ahead and following the

execution, especially if further torture allegations arise. This incident is liable to continue to

cause tensions between Thailand and Myanmar, especially given the sentiment among the

Burmese that there was insufficient evidence to convict the two defendants and that they

may have been singled out, and perhaps scapegoated given their position as migrant workers.

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MEDIUM RISK Notable Dates

Myanmar

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The Islamic State (IS) releases video calling for attacks against “enemies” of Islam in

Philippines; liable to spark increased jihadist activity in Philippines over coming weeks,

months.

Foreign governments, Manila issue militancy warnings for central, southern Philippines

ahead of Christmas, New Years; intensified operations possible in early 2016.

Travel to Metro Manila may continue at this time while adhering to standard security

protocols given the latent threat of militancy and crime.

Transnational militant group Islamic State (IS) threatens Philippines

On December 21, a three-minute video on the official website of the Islamic State (IS), was

released in the Philippine’s primary language of Tagalog. The video, allegedly filmed at a

southern Philippine IS militant jungle training camp, pledged that jihadist elements would

conduct attacks across the Philippines against the enemies of Islam. The armed militants in

the video stood in front of an IS flag, and are allegedly part of the jihadist group, Ansar-al

Khalifa in the Philippines (AKP), which reportedly swore allegiance to IS in 2014. In response

to the video, the Philippine security establishment reportedly stated that the video is largely

propaganda and that no official IS training camp exists within the Philippines.

Although IS is attempting to establish itself as a more dominant force in the ongoing

insurgency in the southern Philippines and while a major attack in Manila should not be

completely ruled out, the threat of IS towards the general stability of the Philippines remains

relatively low at this time. The capabilities of IS will largely be limited to insurgent style attacks

in the southern Philippines through its local proxies, AKP and Abu Sayyaf.

Militancy warnings surrounding Christmas, New Years

On December 16, the National Intelligence Coordinating Agency (NICA) of the Philippines,

placed much of the central and southern regions of the country under high militancy alert.

The alert specifically mentioned Islamic militant activity conducted by Abu Sayyaf and the

Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters' (BIFF), both based in the south. On December 23, both

the governments of the US and the UK issued their own alerts regarding southern militancy.

Following the warnings, on December 24, BIFF fighters conducted a series of synchronized

attacks on Christian villages around Maguindanao and Sultan Kudarat, which led to the deaths

of at least 13 people. Meanwhile, lengthy military operations were conducted against Abu

Sayyaf on Basilan in mid-December, killing 26 jihadists.

Given the attacks and the government’s increased focus towards Moro militancy recently,

large scale security operations against BIFF will likely be conducted in parts of Mindanao in

the first few weeks of 2016. While persistent operations against Moro Islamist groups will

contain the threat, the motivation of the current government to implement major sustained

campaigns against Abu Sayyaf and BIFF remains questionable.

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MEDIUM RISK Notable Dates

Philippines

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Nationwide trade union protests called off, possible uptick in activism in January as

demands remain unresolved; highlights persisting trade union discontent with

government’s 2016 budget proposals.

Travel to Sri Lanka, including Colombo, can continue as normal while taking basic

security precautions given the threat of protests and political unrest.

Nationwide trade union protests called off, possible renewal of activism in January as

demands remain unresolved

Nearly 50 trade unions including education, health and transportation sectors decided to take

part in an island-wide labor strike from the morning hours on December 15, as part of a State,

Private and Semi Government Trade Unions’ Collective. The move was to protest government

inaction on finding acceptable solutions to several grievances regarding certain proposals to

the 2016 budget, including curtailing pensions, public servants’ basic salary allowance,

lowering vehicle emission test fees and the hike in private sector wages. However, following

discussions with Prime Minister Ranil Wickremasinghe on December 14, the Trade Unions’

Collective, with the exception of the Ceylon Bank Employees Union (CBEU), decided to call off

the island-wide strike for December 15. Nearly ten trade unions including banking and health

sectors have threatened to join in with other trade unions to organize labor strikes before

mid-January, in the event of a lack of resolution of their demands.

The Trade Unions’ Collective’s decision to call off the December 15 island-wide strike indicates

the government’s willingness to continually engage with dissatisfied trade unions in a bid to

minimize disruptions nationwide. However, the decision of the bank unions to proceed with

the strike, coupled with statements from Trade Union collective leaders about continuing

negotiations with the government on the budget proposals, could indicate that several

grievances remain to be addressed. Therefore, we assess the likelihood of additional strike

calls or threats, and trade union activism calling for the resignation of the Finance Minister

Ravi Karunanayake in the coming month, considering popular perception of the FM’s

singlehanded role in framing the unpopular budget proposals.

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MEDIUM RISK Notable Dates

Sri Lanka

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Thai military junta continues to crack down on political dissent, with particular regard to

criticism of controversial Rajabhakti Park scandal.

Travel to Bangkok may continue while adhering to standard security precautions

regarding the latent risk of civil unrest and the threat of attacks.

Thai military junta continues to crack down on political dissent, with particular regard to

criticism of controversial Rajabhakti Park scandal

The Thai Military Junta, officially the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO), continued

to administer perceived harsh penalties on political opposition throughout December, most

notably against individuals highlighting the Rajabhakti Park scandal. The building of Rajabhakti

Park, a public memorial that honors past kings of Thailand and is built on army land, involves

allegations that army officials received payouts while the park was being created, specifically

when the bronze statues for seven kings were being commissioned. Further underscoring the

junta crackdown on dissidents within the country, a report on December 8 suggested that a

“Red Shirts” supporter may face up to 32 years in prison for ‘liking and sharing’ a modified

photo of the Thai king in addition to sharing an infographic on Rajabhakti Park.

The above mentioned indicate the alleged heavy handedness of the junta as well as the

perceived low threshold it has for civilian dissent, whether against the monarchy or military.

Furthermore, we assess that since criticizing the coup and the monarch is banned under the

current regime, the junta will continually use the law to clamp down on political dissidents

and activities, which they deem threatening to its hold on power. We further assess that such

incidents of arrests would continue in the months ahead and that people or leaders perceived

to oppose to the junta could be specifically targeted. Moreover given the ban on unscheduled

public demonstrations and the level of deterrence the junta has fostered, we assess that the

incidents are unlikely to galvanize a wide spread public protests which could have a significant

impact on the political climate in the immediate future. However, although the political

opposition to the junta is currently muted and is under the governmental pressure, we assess

that political tensions will continue in Thailand.

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MEDIUM RISK Notable Dates

Thailand

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Human rights activist assaulted in Nghe An Province ahead of International Human Rights

Day, later arrested in Hanoi for allegedly spreading anti-state propaganda.

Travel to Vietnam can continue adhering to standard security protocols. Travelers are

advised to maintain vigilance for security risks associated with street crime.

Human rights activist assaulted in Nghe An Province ahead of International Human Rights

Day, later arrested in Hanoi for allegedly spreading anti-state propaganda on December 16

The Vietnamese human rights lawyer was arrested under Article 88 of the Vietnamese penal

code prior to a meeting he was slated to attend with European Union (EU) delegates for

deliberating on the condition of human rights in Vietnam. Earlier, the human rights activist

was attacked by a mob of unidentified miscreants impersonating security personnel while

returning home after attending an event in the run up to International Human Rights Day in

Nghe An province. The lawyer has served a four year prison sentence on similar charges of

spreading anti-state propaganda from 2007- 2011, after which his license to practice law in

Vietnam was revoked.

The targeting of the lawyer by miscreants when combined with the later arrest on December

16 highlights the perceived intolerant treatment of dissidents by the ruling Communist Party

of Vietnam. The aforementioned incidents follow the engagement of EU delegates and

Vietnamese officials over contentious issues in Vietnam, particularly the perceived human

rights violations in the country. While the incident may be used by international groups and

activists to garner international attention to the alleged poor conditions of human rights in

Vietnam, we assess that the arrest of the lawyer is not likely to have a detrimental effect on

the relations between the EU and Vietnam. Additionally, the trade pacts agreed upon by the

two parties are liable to continue unabated in the coming months, the issue of rights

notwithstanding.

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MEDIUM RISK Notable Dates

Vietnam

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Small explosion recorded outside Legislative Council amidst planned protest against

contentious Copyrights Amendment Bill on December 9.

Travel to Hong Kong can continue as normal while adhering to basic security precautions

regarding civil unrest, crime and protests.

Explosion recorded outside Legislative Council Complex (legCo) amidst protest

On December 9, reports indicated that a modified gas canister was hurled into a nearby

garbage bin near the Legislative Council Complex (legco) leading to a small explosion. The blast

took place during a protest, organized by internet activist group, Keyboard Frontline, against

the Copyrights Amendment Bill and the perceived limits it introduced on creative freedom.

The legislative council on December 9 was scheduled to convene for the second reading and

the impending passage of the Copyright Amendment Bill, but was adjourned for a lack of

quorum. Additionally, on December 16, one person was arrested in possession of explosive

material at the Admiralty Center while he was heading toward the LegCo complex, where

hundreds of demonstrators were protesting against the second reading of the Bill. Then on

December 21, six men, aged 18-22, including a former policeman, were arrested in connection

with the December 9 explosion at the LegCo complex. The arrested officer is believed to have

participated in the pro-democracy movement, while two others are suspected to be affiliated

with an online group rallying against the contentious bill.

Overall, the December 9 explosion and the arrest on December 16 underscores the existence

of more hardline opposition elements willing to use limited forms of violence to express

dissatisfaction with the local government and Beijing’s perceived influence over it. While the

number of people partaking in such activity could grow, we nonetheless assess it is and will

likely remain a very small percentage of the overall opposition movement. Authorities in Hong

Kong are likely to act proactively against activist these elements, particularly given that

successful and repeated violent acts, no matter how extensive, could signify a significant

turning point with regards to the security situation in Hong Kong. Nonetheless, further low-

level acts of violence, most likely meant to derail the bill’s passage or frighten and intimate

authorities, are possible in the coming weeks. Moreover, further demonstrations should also

be expected. Nevertheless, such protests, especially outside government buildings, are likely

to remain contained and held with strict security oversight. Lastly and in light of the upcoming

legislative council elections in 2016, we assess that the bill may be employed as a mobilizing

issue for campaigns, while also inspiring possible placating measures by the government in

the coming weeks until the passage of the legislation.

Back to table of contents

LOW RISK Notable Dates

Hong Kong

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Tokyo, Seoul reach settlement agreement regarding issue of comfort women, while anti-

South Korea sentiments simmers.

Travel to Tokyo can continue while adhering to standard security protocols given the

threat of elevated communal agitations and crime.

Tokyo, Seoul reach settlement agreement regarding compensation for comfort women,

while anti-South Korean sentiment simmers

On December 28, Japan and South Korea reached a settlement agreement during bilateral

talks held in Seoul, regarding the contentious issue of former forced sex workers of Korean

origin, known euphemistically as comfort women. The agreement stipulates that the Japanese

administration establish a one billion yen (8 million USD) fund to aid former comfort women

and that Japan’s Prime Minister (PM) Shinzo Abe issue a written apology. Diplomats from both

Japan and South Korea have largely accepted the deal which will see the controversial issue

of comfort women finally resolved with both countries moving forward after a decades’ long

standoff, which soured diplomatic ties between the two nations. In contrast, nationalist

elements within Japan were angered by PM Abe’s apology. Additionally, approximately 180

members of the right-wing group Ganbare Nippon staged a protest in Tokyo demanding the

PM Abe retract the agreement. In addition, anti-South Korea sentiments surfaced after the

arrest of a South Korean national in Tokyo on December 9, in connection with the explosion

at Yasukuni Shrine on November 23. Moreover, thousands of Japanese residents attended a

protest held in central Tokyo on December 20, to condemn the shrine bombing.

The recent agreement signed by Tokyo and Seoul, coupled with the lingering anti-South

Korean sentiments highlights lingering diplomatic tensions between Japan and South Korea

that have spanned decades regarding the treatment of Korea by Imperial Japan. However, the

December 28 settlement highlights an improvement in these diplomatic relations and a

willingness by both nations to finally resolve controversial issues. However, the bilateral

agreement and particularly PM Abe’s apology has angered nationalistic elements within

Japan. With this in mind, localized demonstrations against the agreement are liable to take

place outside government locales within Tokyo in the coming days and weeks as a means of

demanding a retraction from the state leaders.

Back to table of contents

LOW RISK Notable Dates

Japan

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European Parliament calls for sanctions against Maldivian elite following perceived

democracy regression.

Those residing or operating in the Maldives are advised to maintain heightened

vigilance given rising tensions and recent political instability.

European Parliament calls for sanctions against Maldivian elite following perceived

democracy regression

The European Parliament held a session calling on the European Union (EU) and its

member states to implement sanctions against members of the Maldives governmental

elite and their supporters in the business community on December 18. The session called

on the EU to freeze the overseas assets of a number of persons, in response to what the

European Parliament sees as continuing democratic regression in the South Asian

archipelago, and a significant deterioration in the protection of human rights.

The resolution called on the government, headed by President Abdulla Yameen, to release

“immediately and unconditionally” former President Mohamed Nasheed, former Vice-

President Ahmed Adeeb and other, European considered, “political prisoners.” In

addition, it called on states to demand the safe guarding of human and political rights in

the country, while issuing travel warnings to tourists looking to travel to the Maldives

about alleged disreputable rights record and the condition of civil liberties, particularly in

the capital Male. While the EU parliament simultaneously called for increased political

dialogue between the ruling administration and political opposition, the Minister of

Foreign Affairs termed the resolution as “inappropriate and irresponsible”, insisting that

those held by Maldivian authorities had committed serious criminal offenses.

The European Parliament’s resolution is likely a response to the political turmoil that took

place in the Maldives in October and November, in which a number of political enemies

of Yameen were arrested, on suspicion of plotting his assassination. These alleged failed

murder attempts were claimed to be the reason for the president’s decision to announce

a state of emergency from November 4-11, however many have contended this was a

political move to crush opposition plans to hold a large protest rally. Yameen’s actions to

protect his power, under the guise of a militant threat in the Maldives, have also been

perceived as an attempt to use the growing worldwide issue of Islamic militancy as a

cover, while in turn reversing many of the democratic reforms made in previous years.

Finally, the sanctions against Yameen, and his political elite, in addition to European

attempts to warn tourists about perceived human rights abuses in the country, may have

an effect on softening the government’s approach into accepting more democratic

governance. The Maldivian economy relies heavily on tourism and foreign investment,

particularly from Europe, and it is widely believed that the state of emergency lasted for

only a week (instead of the 30 says it was originally intended) partly due to heavy

international backlash and a fear that this would affect the Maldives’ tourism industry.

Back to table of contents

LOW RISK Notable Dates

Maldives

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Peaceful anti-government protests held by Korean Confederation of Trade Unions (KCTU)

in Seoul, nationwide in December while KCTU President detained and charged with

sedition.

Korean Immigration Service to step-up pre-screening procedures for passengers travelling

to South Korea at the point of departure from January 2016.

Travel to Seoul may continue at this time, while adhering to security protocols regarding

protests, crime, and the lingering risk of conflict with North Korea.

Peaceful anti-government protests held by KCTU in Seoul, nationwide in December

Demonstrations against the government’s proposed labor and education reforms were held

in Seoul on multiple occasions throughout the month by the Korean Confederation of Trade

Unions (KCTU), defying the government’s ban on anti-government processions and

gatherings. The anti-government protests were held peacefully and witnessed a considerably

lower turnout compared to the violent rally on November 14. On December 10, the KCTU

president was detained by the national police for violating the Assembly and Demonstration

Act and General Obstruction of Traffic. Most notably, on December 16, members of the KCTU

organized a partial strike for two to four hours across twelve cities with the labor force of

several prominent car companies participating in the walkout leading to major losses to the

companies.

The arrest of the KCTU president and detention of other protesters highlights the current

government’s perceived zero-tolerance policy towards elements that propagate violent

unrest. With that said, there remains a latent potential for further demonstrations to take

place in the country, Seoul particularly, over the coming weeks, but due to the stringent

measures taken by the government against civilian unrest, the turnout and intensity of such

protest is likely to reduce.

Korean Immigration Service to intensify pre-screening procedures for passengers

The Ministry of Justice, in collaboration with Korean Immigration Service, is slated to step-up

pre-screening procedures to disallow potential militant and other high risk passengers from

boarding planes bound for South Korea from January 2016. Earlier in 2015, local authorities

ran pre-screening procedures across eight airports and banned 157 passengers from taking

flights to the East Asian country. The steps come after three Indonesian nationals were

deported from South Korea for alleged links to al-Qaeda.

The implementation of pre-screening measures underscores the increasing scope of the anti-

militancy policy of the incumbent government and highlights its efforts to bolster aviation

security. The deportation of the suspected al-Qaeda affiliates indicates the potential very

limited presence of militants in the Korean Peninsula, however the measures taken by the

government are likely to limit the already unsubstantial operational capabilities of any

militants residing or hiding in the country. Back to table of contents

LOW RISK Notable Dates

South Korea

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Taiwan slated to hold general elections for new President, Vice President, and members

of the 9th Legislative Yuan on January 16, 2016

Travel to Taiwan can continue as normal while adhering to basic security precautions

regarding civil unrest and protests.

Taiwan slated to hold general elections for new President, Vice President and members of

the 9th Legislative Yuan on January 16, 2016

On January 16, 2016 Taiwan is slated to hold elections for a new President and Vice President,

along with members of the 9th Legislative Yuan. The major candidates are Eric Chu from the

ruling-Kuomintang Party (KMT) and Tsai Ing-wen, leader of the Democratic Progressive Party’s

(DPP). Recent election polls indicate that Tsai, along with running mate Chen Chien-jen, are

the front-runners for the presidency and are slated to win 46 percent of the vote. In addition,

since the 2014 Sunflower Movement demonstrations, Taiwan has witnessed a significant

political realignment. This saw the more pro cooperation with Beijing KMT, Taiwan’s ruling

party of seven years, face mounting criticism for the country’s slow growth due to a

deteriorating economic situation. These sentiments were also evidenced after the DPP won

13 out of 22 electable cities and counties, during the November 2014 municipal elections,

marking it the KMT’s worst electoral defeat since 1949. Furthermore, on December 25 at least

20 protesters vandalized Chu’s campaign headquarters in Taipei City, after the Ministry of

Labor announced that amendments to the Labor Standards Act would be enforced from

January 1, 2016. While the DPP promotes increased independence from China and

strengthening Western ties, it still indicates maintaining a stable relationship with the

mainland, at this time. Additionally, on November 7, the incumbent Taiwanese President Ma

Ying-jeou met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in a historical summit to maintain strong cross-

strait trade ties.

Given the consistent election polling results, it remains likely that Tsai Ing-wen will succeed as

the next President of Taiwan. Furthermore, in the face of existing concerns regarding the

DPP’s position towards China, Tsai continues to reiterate maintaining stable relations with

China as a means of moderating the party’s overall stance towards Beijing. Moreover, the Xi-

Ma presidential meeting may have had a two-pronged purpose, the first being an attempt at

boosting the KMT’s domestic support among its Beijing-tolerant base and secondly as a

possible means for warning the DPP from diverging from the country’s One China principle,

which sees Taiwan and mainland China obligatory parts of China. Thus, should the DPP and

Tsai take power in the January election, we assess that no major policy changes will be

implemented in the near future. However, the DPP are likely to take steps to lessen Chinese

influence in the country.

Back to table of contents

LOW RISK Notable Dates

Taiwan

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Notable Dates for January 2016 China – Back to portion

Date Short Summary Assessment and Recommendation

January 1-3 New Year’s Celebrations China celebrates January 1-3 as a public

holiday. Allot for disruptions to business

continuity as many business and

government buildings will be closed

during this time.

India - Back to portion

Date Short Summary Assessment and Recommendation

January 14

January 26

Pongal

Harvest, thanksgiving

festival

Republic Day

Public holiday

marks the

implementation of

India’s constitution

A popular Hindu festival that takes place

across India to mark the commencement

of Spring. The Pongal is celebrated for up

to four days. It is a religious and regional

holiday, particularly in the areas of

central and southern India. Education

institutions remain closed along with

businesses related to agriculture.

Those dealing with the agricultural

sector are advised to allot for potential

disruptions to businesses continuity due

to the festival.

Parades are held in capitals of all states,

with the grand parade held in New Delhi,

which includes a large-scale military

procession. Numerous cultural programs

and festivities are also held. Government

offices of all levels and public institutions

will remain closed. Private businesses

may close or have reduced operating

hours. Those operating or residing in

India and particularly Delhi are advised

to maintain vigilance due to the

heightened potential for militant attacks

given the significance of the day.

Additionally, allot extra travel time due

to likely disruptions due to the public

celebrations.

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Japan – Back to portion

Date Short Summary Assessment and Recommendation

January 11 Coming of Age Day.

Established to honor

those who will turn 20

years old, at any point

during the year, as it is

the age of majority in

Japan.

On the public holiday large festivities will

be witnessed in urban centers across the

country, particularly in the vicinity of

government institutions. The holiday is

usually celebrated by various age

groups, not only those reaching

adulthood, and many people visit

religious shrines. As a result, disruptions

to businesses continuity should be

expected, as both government

institutions and businesses will likely be

closed for the duration of January 11.

Myanmar – Back to portion

Date Short Summary Assessment and Recommendation

January 4 Independence Day Independence Day celebrations typically

take place in the capital Naypyidaw and

other urban centers. Allot additional

time for travel and maintain vigilance

throughout the capital due to large

crowds due to celebrations.

Sri Lanka – Back to portion

Date Short Summary Assessment and Recommendation

January 15 Tamil Thai Pongal Day.

Celebrates the half year

harvest.

Expect disruptions to business continuity

as Tamil Thai Pongal Day is a public

holiday and most business are slated to

be closed.

Taiwan - Back to portion

Date Short Summary Assessment and Recommendation

January 16

General Elections In the lead up to and during election day,

politically motivated unrest remains

unlikely as polling is liable to transpire

peacefully. Rallies and protests are

possible though. Plan for possible

disruptions to travel and business

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continuity as a result of the voting

process.

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Have additional questions? Contact us at +44 20 3540 0434 or email us at intel@max-security.com DISCLAIMER: Please note that any views and/or opinions and/or assessment and/or recommendations presented in this text are solely those of Max Security. If you are not the named addressee you should not disseminate, distribute or copy this text. If you are not the intended recipient you are notified that disclosing, copying, distributing or taking any action in reliance on the contents of this information is strictly prohibited. Max Security Solutions accepts no liability for (i) the contents of this text/report being correct, complete or up to date; (ii) consequences of any actions taken or not taken as a result and/or on the basis of such contents. Copyright - 2015 Max Security