September 2016

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2016 has so far seen a growing trend of militancy in Asia, with August being no exception as attacks were carried

out by both transnational and domestic militant groups over a number of countries throughout the region. The

ability for these groups to carry out attacks are largely dependent on the capability of local security forces, most

notably on August 8, in the minimally-policed city of Quetta, Pakistan resulting in the death of at least 70 people.

Additional attacks and other forms of violence took place in other areas of volatile security situations, including

lone-wolf attacks in Bangladesh and the ongoing state-wide protests in Jammu and Kashmir, India. Attacks

throughout India have also been taken out by Hindu national groups, who have increasingly targeted low-castes

under the guise of cow vigilantism. Relatively poor security infrastructure in certain countries has even affected

neighboring nations, as militants from Indonesia unsuccessfully attempted to launch rockets towards Singapore’s

Marina Bay on August 5.

To combat the perceived growing threat of militancy in the region, a number of countries have passed sweeping

legislation that opposition elements allege will serve to restrict freedoms and further consolidate central authority

in the hands of ruling parties. This is the case in both the Maldives, where the parliament approved a new criminal

defamation law on August 9, as well as in China, where new regulations regarding foreign NGO’s have been

imposed. The NGO legislation arrives against the backdrop of large-scale protests over labor laws and factory

regulations, which are unlikely to achieve significant reforms given Beijing’s intention to offset losses from a recent

economic slowdown.

In a notably positive development, two Southeast Asian nations which have been dealing with separate, decades-

long insurgencies have each begun highly anticipated peace conferences. In Myanmar, the four-day 21st Century

Panglong Peace Conference began in Naypyidaw on August 31, which will seek to end a number of ongoing

insurgencies collectively described as one of the world’s longest running civil wars. In the Philippines, despite

instances of isolated clashes in mid-August between communist rebel groups and the military, newly elected

President Rodrigo Duterte’s administration has initiated a ceasefire and four-day peace conference in Oslo that

concluded on August 26. Beyond the push for peace, Duterte’s other policies continue to make waves, as the

perceived lax oversight of extrajudicial killings has led to the death of approximately 1,900 people since he

assumed power on June 30.

Finally, in East Asia, tensions on the Korean Peninsula continue to rise as South Korea conducted its largest-ever

artillery exercise near the North Korean border on August 18, just two weeks after the North launched

intermediate-range ballistic missiles into the East Sea on August 3. Increasing concerns in Seoul over the issue of

missile vulnerability has spurred the expressed intent to deploy THAAD installations, an anti-ballistic missile system

designed to shoot down short, medium, and intermediate range ballistic missiles, in certain areas of the country.

The issue has led to widespread protests by locals that would be adversely affected by the planned deployments,

further politicizing the issue and compelling Seoul to rethink the prioritization of installation.

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PAKISTAN ..................................................................................................................................................................4

BANGLADESH ...........................................................................................................................................................5

CHINA ........................................................................................................................................................................6

INDIA .........................................................................................................................................................................7

INDONESIA & SINGAPORE ......................................................................................................................................8

MYANMAR ................................................................................................................................................................9

PHILIPPINES........................................................................................................................................................... 10

THAILAND .............................................................................................................................................................. 11

HONG KONG ......................................................................................................................................................... 12

MALDIVES .............................................................................................................................................................. 13

SOUTH KOREA ....................................................................................................................................................... 14

15

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The suicide bombing in Quetta on August 8, claimed by the

Jamaat-ul-Ahrar faction of the Tehreek-e-Taliban (TTP-JA),

signals the growing presence of Sunni Islamist militant

groups, particularly the TTP, in northern Balochistan. While

previous attacks in Quetta in recent months primarily

involved relatively smaller-scale IED detonations, this event

indicates the willingness and growing capability of groups

such as the TTP-JA to carry out multiple-casualty attacks on

soft targets in a city that it perceives to be opposed to

Islamist Sharia Law. Separately, government’s inability to

preempt these ongoing attacks in Balochistan highlights

the province’s relatively inadequate counter-terrorism

apparatus, which is likely to be exploited by Islamist militant

groups to continually launch attacks of varying scale for the

foreseeable future.

Such incidents may invite further crackdowns from the

military, thereby weakening the functioning of the MQM,

ultimately compelling shifts in allegiances to local

alternatives such as the rival Pak Sarzameen Party (PSP).

Nonetheless, the fact that key MQM leaders like Dr. Farooq

Sattar have refrained from strongly criticizing Altaf Hussain

indicates fear of a political backlash, given the leader’s

enduring appeal among a large section of party cadres.

That said, MQM leaders will likely continue to distance

themselves from Hussain in an attempt to regain national

confidence as a non-violent political entity while refraining

from a sudden, violent split with the party’s London office,

where Altaf Hussain is currently based.

Over 70 killed in suicide

attack on Quetta Civil

Hospital

One killed after MQM

activists attack media

house after incitement

by London-based party

Chief Altaf Hussain

Pakistan-based MQM

leadership distance

themselves from Altaf’s

statements, claim party

will operate from within

country alone

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The clashes between protestors and police in August

during student-led rallies highlight the propensity for

violence during demonstrations in the capital. The

August 16 protests over the construction of a power

plant in the Sunderbans by student-led environmental

groups are a part of longstanding tensions over the

government economic policy in the region. The ongoing

stalemate between these groups and the government is

liable to manifest in intermittent protests in the near

term, especially in key locations such as Shahbag

intersection and Central Shaheed Minar.

Meanwhile, the demonstrations by Jagannath University

students over dormitories underscore the propensity for

localized campus-based issues to devolve into incidents

of violent protest. This was likely due to the student

group’s attempts to broaden the scope of their protest by

demonstrating outside the Education Ministry to attract

the attention of the political establishment. At the

present time, given that the issue remains unresolved

and the students have threatened to protest near the

Prime Minister’s Office, there remains an elevated risk of

police adopting forcible dispersal measures again to

contain such protests in Dhaka in the coming weeks.

The killing of a Bangladeshi-Canadian allegedly behind the

Gulshan attacks on July 1, marks a notable victory for security

forces, given his perceived value due to suspected links with the

Islamic State (IS) and Jamaatul Mujahideen Bangladesh. While

the raids on militant cells in Dhaka continue with at least 29

arrests made in August, they have revealed threats particularly

to minorities, such as JMB plans to attack churches and a Sufi

shrine. Further, the stabbing of a Hindu claimed by IS in Dhaka

Division on August 23, and the attempted attack on a monastery

in Bandarban on August 4, the third attack on Buddhists in three

months, further substantiate this assessment. Overall, we assess

that while these arrests indicate the intense security efforts of

law enforcements, Islamist militant groups are unlikely deterred,

and will continue to attack soft targets.

Five injured in clashes

between students and

police in Dhaka over

environmental protests

Jagannath University

(JnU) students block

roads in Dhaka during

demonstrations on

August 18 and 23

Gulshan attack chief

planner allegedly shot

dead in special

operation in

Narayanganj, Dhaka

0

5

10

15

2013 2014 2015 2016

Nu

mb

er o

f In

cid

ents

Year

Number of Militant Attacks in 2013-2016

ABT Ansar al-Islam JMB IS AQIS

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The demonstrations over the Jiangsu nuclear power plant

and the death of 21 people in the Hubei explosion highlight

ongoing public concerns over China’s spotty industrial

safety record. Although Beijing is working to improve safety

protocols, given its policy of rapid industrialization, these

kinds of accidents are liable to continue occurring in the

coming months and years. Furthermore, while the

government has proved increasingly willing to take into

account a project’s environmental impacts, the country’s

slowing growth means future polluting plants are still likely

to be pursued. Each such incident has the potential to

polarize public opinion against power plants and other

polluting entities, which can complicate the viability of

future projects. Moreover, in extreme cases, they also can

serve to ignite local unrest. This unrest primarily comes

from the widespread fear in China regarding the adverse

health and environmental health effects of large-scale

industrial projects. While China has a sophisticated

protocol for dealing with environment-related protests,

demonstrations can still sometimes metastasize into

regional events. In cases where protests become too large

or aimed at more general grievances, they can result in

regime repression and localized violence.

The publication of new regulations targeting NGOs

continues a trend of increased governmental repression

against independent civil society actors. In conjunction with

the regulations passed in April 2016, which largely focused

on homogenizing and entrenching government oversight

over NGOs active in China, these protocols increase the

government’s surveillance abilities. Most importantly, they

mandate certain NGOs send lists with leaders’ and

members’ detailed information to the government, which

will allow it a finer level of control. In the months to come,

similar restrictions on social groups are likely to proliferate

and become codified throughout China. The Xi regime has

isolated civil society groups, and NGOs among them, as

dangerous societal challenges that could impact the

Communist Party’s legitimacy. This governmental fear is

especially potent in light of China’s recent decline in per

capita economic growth, long a barometer for regime

success and legitimacy. Increasing regulations could

manifest in overt and progressively onerous disruptions to

business continuity for affected firms.

Government shelves

plans for Jiangsu

nuclear plant following

protests

21 killed in power plant

pipeline explosion in

Hubei Province

Chinese Communist

Party releases new

guidelines for foreign

NGOs

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While members of the Dalit castes have historically been

associated with the disposal of cow carcasses, Hindu right-

wing vigilante groups accuse them of profiteering by killing

cows and selling their hides for industrial use. As evidenced

in Andhra Pradesh on August 9, when two Dalits were

beaten by a local cow protection group over the

aforementioned charges, the propensity for localized

violence as a result of these caste-based tensions remains

high and could lead to protests by Dalit groups.

The issue is liable to primarily affect rural India, where the

disposal practice is associated with Dalits and is likely

exacerbated by inadequacies in local enforcement. That

said, as evidenced by the August 12 protests in Mumbai,

Dalit groups are likely to hold demonstrations in major

cities closest to the affected areas. Predominantly, these

rallies are held to protest government inaction, especially if

arrests of suspects are delayed. Nevertheless, given the

strong mobilization capacity of grassroots Dalit groups, the

protests are liable to attract significant attention from the

political establishment. However, despite Prime Minister

Narendra Modi’s statements against cow vigilantes on

August 6, the groups likely view his party’s perceivably late

reaction to the issue as a political move to safeguard Dalit

voter constituencies in future elections.

The violence at demonstrations by nationalist group Akhil

Bharatiya Vidyarthi Parishad (ABVP) calling for the closure of

an international rights organization over their alleged support

to Kashmiri separatists are particularly notable as they are the

first protests in a major city over the ongoing Kashmir conflict

to devolve into violence. Additionally, they are liable to gain

increased traction in the near term in light of the support that

the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) recently provided

ABVP, as evidenced by the participation of senior leader

Ananth Kumar and 150 party members in ABVP street rallies

in Bangalore on August 21. This appears to be an attempt by

the BJP to undermine the ruling Congress government in

Karnataka State over their alleged inaction on sedition charges

against NGOs and activist groups perceived to be sympathetic

towards separatist groups in Kashmir.

Given that the conflict in Kashmir remains dynamic at the

time of writing, with a curfew ongoing in parts of the state,

there remains an elevated risk that events in the state

could influence future tensions across the country between

right-wing groups and NGOs. These potential clashes

between the two groups are likely to be triggered by public

events held in support of Kashmiris. Meanwhile, the

organization’s acquittal of sedition charges on August 26 by

the police will likely exacerbate tensions with the ABVP in

Bangalore in the near term.

Dalit groups hold

demonstration in

Mumbai over cow

vigilante attacks

Police forcibly disperse

ABVP activists

protesting against

alleged pro-Kashmir

program

ABVP activists attempt

to set office of human

rights organization on

fire in protest rally

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The August 5 arrests lend credence to concerns

that Singapore is increasingly being viewed as

an attractive target for southeast Asian jihadi

groups to carry out attacks, likely due to its

position as a Western-oriented economic center.

The arrested individuals’ alleged links to Bahrun

Naim, an Indonesian militant based in Syrian

Islamic State (IS)-controlled territory and alleged

mastermind of the Surakarta bombing, suggests

that IS-inspired or affiliated groups in the region

may be targeting the city-

state in order to garner additional media exposure and attention

while vying for additional IS support. Given Singapore’s comparatively strong security apparatus and previous success

in preventing the proliferation of such groups within its territory, the targeting of a prominent Singaporean location

from outside the country is a logical strategy by the group, which was likely anticipated by authorities. That said, given

that the city-state neighbors both Indonesia and Malaysia, countries which have reported a notable uptick of concerns

over IS-related militancy in the form of raids and attacks within the past year, we assess a significant possibility of an IS-

inspired or orchestrated militant attack in Singapore over the coming months and years. Consequently, these countries

are liable to increase anti-militancy corporation in the form of intelligence sharing and training in the near term.

Six IS-linked militants

arrested from Batam,

Indonesia for allegedly

planning a rocket attack

on Marina Bay,

Singapore

Security reportedly

bolstered nationwide

ahead of Singapore’s

National Day

celebrations

National Day Parade

conducted at National

Stadium, Singapore

Click here to enlarge map

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The 21st Century Panglong Peace Conference has

garnered participation across the country’s political

spectrum including government officials,

parliament members, the military, and major

political parties, as well as most armed and

disarmed ethnic organizations. While the peace

conference represents a step toward an eventual

inclusive settlement, it remains unlikely that

significant advances will take place. The Myanmar

Army, also known as the Tatmadaw, has signaled willingness to soften its stance, as evident in admitting culpability in

the July 25 killing of Kachin civilians. However, points of contention, including power and resource sharing mechanisms

between the central government and ethnic groups, are unlikely to be decided as active combat continues in the

country’s resource-rich northern and western regions. Furthermore, the military’s adamancy concerning disarmament

of three smaller rebel groups, collectively referred to as the Northern Alliance, as a prerequisite for entering the talks

will likely continue to be to be a nonstarter, as this would fundamentally impair the groups’ leverage in any future

negotiations. In addition, given close ties between more-legitimate active combatant groups with various less-legitimate

groups, most notably the Arkan Army and Ta'ang National Liberation Army’s close relationship with the Kachin army, a

lack of the latter's inclusion would likely serve to deter UNFC groups from seriously participating in the process. In light

of the relatively decentralized nature of current fighting, which allows for more autonomy at lower levels of command,

recent violence may have been isolated and against the expressed will of military and rebel leadership. However, the

actions will likely serve to further entrench the already hardened positions of both the government and rebel groups.

Despite the unlikelihood of additional accessions to the National Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) as a result of the

conference, the meeting will notably serve as a confidence-building measure and framework for future talks over the

coming years.

Government announces

21st-century Panglong

Conference to take place

on August 31

UNFC agrees to join

conference, despite

Northern Alliance’s

exclusion from talks

Clashes reported in

Shan, Kachin states as

peace conference

begins in Naypyidaw

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The agreement between the government and the

Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP), the New

People’s Army (NPA), and the National Democratic Front

(NDF) at the end of the Oslo negotiations was likely

facilitated by the release of 20 NDF members as a

goodwill gesture on August 19. The durability of the

ongoing ceasefire, however, depends largely on the

pace at which the agreed-upon issues from the

negotiations will be implemented, such as a

reconstitution of the list of those members eligible for

amnesty and the disposition of forces in CPP-NPA

strongholds. That said, there remains a latent threat of

localized armed violence, in light of existing tensions

over the intermittent skirmishes between the army and

militants over the month of August. As a result,

perceived localized violations such as the explosion of

landmines along the routes of military patrols are liable

to result in a resumption of offensives by the army in

the near term.

Despite the recent surrender of at least 18 mayors and 31

police officials in August over drug trade links, it appears

the primary focus of the government campaign remains

drug dealers and users, with approximately 1,900 people

killed since President Rodrigo Duterte took office on June

30. This demographic will likely remain the target of the

proposed second phase of the campaign in the coming

weeks and months. Furthermore, in light of the shoot-to-

kill approach being currently employed against anyone

suspected to bear links to drug trade, public protests

against the policy will continue to be limited.

Meanwhile, the extrajudicial methods used to enforce the

campaign, often through the reported use of hired contract

killers, further heightens the risk of the indiscriminate

targeting of drug-related suspects. With that in mind, there

remains a threat of collateral damage for those in the

vicinity of these targeted killings in the near term, in light of

reports that shootings have occurred in public places by

motorcycle-borne gunmen during the late evening and

overnight hours. This risk is particularly relevant in lower-

income areas across Luzon Island, where a large

proportion of the killings have reportedly taken place.

Government declares

indefinite unilateral

ceasefire with CPP-NPA-

NDF

CPP-NPA-NDF agrees

on indefinite ceasefire

at end of Oslo

negotiations

Government declares

first phase of war on

drugs a success, to

commence second

phase

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While the voting turnout would indicate a successful

illustration of the public’s attitude In a more functional

democracy, the circumstances around the referendum vote

lend themselves to a different narrative. With all negative

or critical discussion about the referendum being made

illegal and no international body monitoring the election,

the representative quality of the results is questionable.

Given the powers that the military government can now

exercise over political appointments and discourse,

opposition groups will continue to be marginalized as the

government further drifts towards an authoritarian system.

We also predict that the new government will intensify

security operations against the southern insurgency in an

attempt to consolidate their power further and project the

image of total stability. Still, should insurgents continue to

execute successful militant operations in tourist areas,

further concessions of political rights are to be expected in

the name of national security.

Whereas the military junta was quick to blame their

political opposition, special investigators have publicly

issued arrest warrants for southern insurgents, although

they are careful to omit any language implying foreign

involvement. Nevertheless, the August bombings are

similar to previous attacks perpetrated by the southern

Malay insurgency in locale, targeting, and modus operandi.

Concerning physical evidence, a cell phone with a

Malaysian registration and DNA from known southern

militants were recovered from separate targeted areas.

The most recent attack also appears opportunistic and

hastily organized considering that the vehicle used was

stolen the night before and that there was only one death

despite the crowded venue. As such, although the

insurgency is highly coordinated, the effectiveness of the

bombs themselves means that casualties will mostly be

limited by the number of working IEDs that they are able to

place and not the quality of their make.

New constitutional

approved by

referendum

Multiple IED attacks

reported in tourist

areas in the south

VIED attack in Pattani

kills one, dozens injured

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The events outlined above point to the ongoing political

instability in Hong Kong between pan-democrats, pro-

Beijing parties, and independence activists, as political

tensions continue to mount ahead of the semi-

autonomous city-state’s September 4 Legislative Council

elections, locally known as LegCo. The catalyst for the latest

round of tensions was the early August decision by Hong

Kong’s Electoral Commission to disqualify six candidates for

their alleged pro-independence stances. The opposition to

the same later manifested in the August 5 rally, which was

notable for being the largest pro-independence march in

Hong Kong since its handover to China in 1997. These

rallies and the overt calls for complete political secession

from mainland China highlight the deepening polarization

within Hong Kong. In the event of further disqualifications,

the possibility of which was reported by the media on

August 29, we assess that the situation is liable to intensify

even further. In this light, we assess that similar protests

and rallies are likely to increase in participation numbers

ahead of the voting over the coming days and weeks, in an

attempt to display large-scale opposition to the Electoral

Commission’s mandate.

Due to the institutional composition of the Legislative

Council in Hong Kong, we assess the low likelihood that

pan-democratic/pro-independence candidates will

command a majority in the LegCo. Taking this into account,

the government’s disqualification of pro-independent

candidates could serve as a way for anti-Beijing activists to

delegitimize the polls and the LegCo entity itself. This, in

turn, could manifest in anti-regime and anti-Beijing

demonstrations, as well as isolated scuffles and violence.

The possible entrance of a pro-independence candidate

into the LegCo for the first time would aggravate this trend

and also raise the possibility of conflict. It is significant to

note that the 2014 Occupy Hong Kong movement began in

reaction to the perceived meddling of Beijing in the city-

state’s 2017 Chief Executive elections. Hence, we assess

that further intervention by the Communist Party of this

kind in the city’s Legislative Council elections could result in

a groundswell of anti-Beijing feeling, and the possible

return of reactionary civic activism and large-scale

demonstrations within Hong Kong, as witnessed in 2014.

Pan-democrat, locale

candidates disrupt

Electoral Commission

meeting

Thousands participate

in pro-independence

rally at Tamar Park

Hundreds protest

against disqualification

of pro-independence

candidates

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The newly implemented legislations, which curb the freedom of speech and assembly in Maldives, are likely to further

antagonize opposition elements and critics of incumbent President Abdullah Yameen Abdul Gayoom in the near term.

Additionally, the bills may be widely perceived as aiding Yameen to consolidate his political clout in the country in the

run-up to the 2018 Presidential elections, whilst also weakening rival contenders. Such notions are likely to be

strengthened given that these bills have been followed by the establishment of rules requiring background checks on

foreign journalists and photographers visiting the country, at a time when a prominent foreign media organization is

slated to release a documentary about the alleged corruption of President Yameen. Further, the August 25 reports of a

possible bloodless coup attempt are likely to have been triggered by the newly-formed Maldives United Opposition’s

seemingly increasing political visibility, coupled with reports of rifts between Yameen and prominent members of the

ruling Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM), including former President Maumoon Gayoom. Nevertheless, the potential

for a successful bloodless coup aimed at ousting Yameen remains difficult via constitutional means at this time, as such

a move requires the approval of two-third of members belonging to the Maldivian Parliament, followed by an approval

by the Supreme Court. Given that the Parliament is currently dominated by supporters of Yameen, we assess that the

passage remains unlikely in the near term.

Criminal defamation bill

passed with jail terms

Bill implementing

restrictions on protests,

public gatherings in

Male passed

Prominent international

news agency reports on

possible ‘legal’ attempt

at ousting incumbent

President Yameen

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Political friction between Pyongyang and Seoul escalated

significantly over the past month. The missile tests and

artillery demonstrations by each side, as well as the reports

on August 17 that the North resumed plutonium

production, were notable for their scale and represent an

increase in tensions between the two sides. This mutual

animosity is likely to be exacerbated with the imminent

deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense

System (THAAD) in eastern South Korea. This technology is

viewed by Pyongyang, as well as Beijing, as a possible

game-changer for its deterrent power against short- and

intermediate-range ballistic missiles and its ability to detect

and store information on new weapon prototypes and

trajectories. South Korea’s successful deployment of

THAAD represents a significant threat to North Korea’s

power projection capabilities, which rely largely on short-

range missiles. Any advance on its installation is likely to be

joined with escalations by North Korea, which could also

find itself backed up by a wary China. That being said, we

still do not predict the outbreak of overt hostilities on the

Korean Peninsula at this time, due to the baked-in nature

of the conflict and the overwhelming weaponry on both

sides.

The deployment in North Gyeongsang of the US-

manufactured THAAD system remains politically

controversial not just abroad but also within South Korea.

Ongoing protests, including on August 15 and 24, have

proliferated in part to public health concerns; some groups

worry the system’s AN/TPY-2 radar emits harmful

electromagnetic rays. Public suspicion also stems from

fears that it, and areas hosting it, could be targets for North

Korean barrages. On August 29, Seoul agreed to change its

original location in favor of three other possibilities and

find a new one quickly. Given that Seoul has also shown

flexibility in the past regarding the location, it is likely to

double down on one of the three current options and

prioritize installation. This is especially so for political

reasons; August 27 saw the election of Choo Mi-ae to the

leadership of the opposition Minjoo Party, who resolutely

opposes the THAAD system. Such a deployment could

provoke further protests, which would most likely center in

public places in North Gyeongsang and Seoul.

North Korea launches

intermediate-range

ballistic missiles into

East Sea

South Korea conducts

largest-ever artillery

exercise near North

Korean border

Thousands protest in

North Gyeongsang

against THAAD

deployment; Pyongyang

fires submarine-

launched ballistic

missiles

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Asia

Date Short Summary Assessment and Recommendation

Maldives: 10-11,

Philippines: 11,

Bangladesh, Malaysia,

Singapore, Sri Lanka: 12,

India, Pakistan: 12-13,

Eid ul-Adha commemorated as an

Islamic religious holiday. Also

known as Bakr-Eid in South Asian

countries, and Hari Raya Haji in

southeast Asian countries.

Both government and private organizations are

slated to shut down for the duration of public

holidays. Special prayers as well as ritualistic

sacrifice of animals will be held on the occasion

of Eid festivities. Those operating or residing in

the affected nations are advised to allot for

disruptions to travel and business continuity for

the holiday period.

Hong Kong – Back to portion

Date Short Summary Assessment and Recommendation

September 4

September 16

Legislative Council elections will be

held across 35 functional

constituencies in Hong Kong.

The day following the Mid-Autumn

Festival is observed as a national

holiday on September 16.

Given that elections are slated to be held across

Hong Kong, security arrangements in the vicinity

of polling stations and government

establishments such as Legislative Council

Complex are liable to be bolstered. In that light,

we advise those operating in Hong Kong to allot

for disruptions to travel and business continuity

during the course of the elections.

Given that the day is celebrated as a national

holiday, all government offices and banks are

slated to be closed. In this context, we advise

those operating in Hong Kong to allot for

disruptions to business continuity.

India – Back to portion

Date Short Summary Assessment and Recommendation

September 2

Trade Union strike against the

Central Government over labor

laws across the country.

Given that all major unions have lent their

support to the strike, services such as banks and

government offices are liable to be affected, while

localized protests in major cities are anticipated.

We advise those operating in India to allot for

disruptions to traffic due to potential

demonstrations, as well as disruptions to

business continuity.

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September 5

September 30

Ganesh Chaturthi, the festival to

observe the birthday of the Hindu

deity Ganesh is celebrated in the

states of Andhra Pradesh, Goa,

Gujarat, Maharashtra, Odisha,

Puducherry and Tamil Nadu.

Mahalaya Amavasya, a religious

holiday to mark the start of the

Durga Puja Festival, is celebrated

in remembrance of the

descending of Goddess Durga to

earth. The day is celebrated only in

Karnataka, Odisha, Tripura and

West Bengal.

While the festival is not a national holiday, its

popularity is likely to affect the working of public

and private businesses in the aforementioned

states. Additionally, given that public

celebrations, including street processions, are

typically associated with festivities, those

operating or residing in the aforementioned

regions are advised to allot for disruptions to

travel and business continuity.

While Mahalaya Amavasya is not a national

holiday, it is observed as a public holiday in the

aforementioned states, resulting in the closure of

public and private offices. As a result, those

operating or residing in the affected states are

advised to allot for disruptions to business

continuity.

Japan

Date Short Summary Assessment and Recommendation

September 19

Respect for the Aged Day National

holiday is observed to honor

elderly citizens on September 19.

The National holiday is celebrated throughout

Japan, and government offices and services will

remain closed for the duration of September 19.

Those operating in Japan are advised to allot for

disruptions to business continuity for the same.

Malaysia

Date Short Summary Assessment and Recommendation

September 16

Malaysia Day is observed as a

national holiday to commemorate

the establishment of the Federation

of Malaysia.

Given that the festival is a national holiday, all

government offices and banks are slated to be

closed. Moreover, traffic disruptions are likely to

occur in the vicinity of celebratory events

nationwide. Those operating or residing in Malaysia

are advised to allot for disruptions to travel and

business continuity.

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South Korea – Back to portion

Date Short Summary Assessment and Recommendation

September 14-16

Chuseok, or Harvest Moon

Festival, is celebrated as a national

holiday across South Korea

between September 14-16. The

festival is celebrated to honor

ancestors and deceased relatives

Banks and government offices across South

Korea are slated to be closed for the duration of

the holiday. In this light, those operating in South

Korea are advised to allot for disruptions to

business continuity during the Chuseok Festival.

Sri Lanka

Date Short Summary Assessment and Recommendation

September 16 Binara Full Moon Poya Day will be

commemorated as a public

holiday in Sri Lanka to mark

Buddha’s visit to heaven.

Banks and government offices across Sri Lanka

are slated to remain closed for the day. Those

operating or residing in Sri Lanka are advised to

allot for disruptions to business continuity.

Taiwan

Date Short Summary Assessment and Recommendation

September 3

September 15-16

Armed Forces Day is a celebration

of Taiwan’s military forces.

The Mid-Autumn Festival and the

following day are observed as

national holidays.

While Armed Forces Day is not a public holiday in

Taiwan, it could see limited closures of some

private and public businesses, including banks.

Given this, we advise those operating in Taiwan

to allot for disruptions to business continuity over

September 3.

Given that the Mid-Autumn Festival is a national

holiday, government offices and banks are

expected to close. We advise those operating in

Taiwan to allot for disruptions to business

continuity over the holiday.

Vietnam

Date Short Summary Assessment and Recommendation

September 2

National Day is celebrated as a

public holiday to commemorate

Given the public holiday, government offices and

other private business are liable to be

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the liberation of Vietnam from

French rule

closed. Furthermore, parades are likely to be

organized in Ba Dinh Square in Hanoi, which in

turn is liable to be accompanied with enhanced

security arrangements. In light of this, we advise

those operating or residing in Hanoi to allot for

travel and business continuity considerations on

September 2.