an open mobile ecosystem

8/9/2019 An Open Mobile Ecosystem

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The Technological Foundation or

An Open Moie

EotemFor over a decade, growth in wireless communication and devices has been hamperedby a lack o open standards and programmable devices. But quickly evolving innovation

in wireless communication will transorm wired networks and mobile devices, providing

more exibility to consumers in terms o choice o operators, equipment, and applica-

tions. This mobility explosion is driving investment and innovation in mobile technolo-

gies. Three sets o innovations will orm the oundation o a mobile ecosystem o plat-

orms, applications, services and providers:

Powerul and inexpensive mobile devices

User-programmable mobile devices

Open wireless networks


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Poweu and Inexpenive Moie Devie

Smart phones and other communication devices that provide powerul computing capability are

becoming more popular and cheaper by the day. In act, the mobile phones that we carry in our

pockets today are more powerul than the most powerul desktop computer o the 1990s. Accord-ing to Nielsen research, the use o smart phones in the United States doubled in the past year. In

Japan, the third generation (3G) o mobile phone standards, which enable high-speed data ex-

change, has reached 90% penetration. iPhone-like devices rom Samsung, LG, and other manuac-

turers already sell or $79 to $199. We expect that the price or smart phones will continue to drop,

and demand or these phones will grow across the world. iPhone and Blackberry are becoming

popular among business users in India, China, and other emerging economies.

Ue-poammae Moie Devie

Mobile devices are becoming programmable by users, making it easier to build large, diverse developer

communities. More than 100,000 developers downloaded the iPhone SDK in the frst our days o the re-

lease. Within a month o release, already 1000 applications had become available. By the end o November

2008, about 10,000 iPhone applications were available in the application store.

Many applications are ree, as are thousands o purely web-based applications or iPhone that dont

require any special application downloads. Ironically, Apples iTunes service, which also provides iPhone

applications to users, vets every application beore making it availablea classic walled garden.

Nokia, the world leader in the sale o smart phones, recognizes that mobile phones are morphing into

personal web devices. Most Nokia phones use open source operating systems like Linux and Symbian

(Symbian was proprietary sotware beore Nokia purchased it). Together with a consortium o other mo-

bile technology companies, Nokia made Symbian available as an open source system. This is good news

or developers who can now create applications or the Symbian operating environment. As a result, we can expect to see a oodo interesting new mobile applications and services on Nokia devices.

Internet giant Google also recently made its oray into the world o mobile computing with its version o an open source mobile

operating system, Android. Google has also gathered a consortium o technology companies and wireless carriers to create

the Open Handset Alliance. Members o the Alliance are developing handsets, applications, and services optimized to work on

Googles Android system.

Open Wiee Netwok

As powerul web-enabled programmable devices prolierate, they will no longer depend solely

on enabled wireless networks rom specifc carriers and community providers. With the diu-

sion o these new devices into the marketplace, they will provide a platorm or an open mobile

ecosystem. This ecosystem will be undamentally dierent rom what we have today, as it will

not be constrained by devices and operators. Users will be not be tethered by the restrictions

that wireless operators and phone manuacturers currently enorce, and will have more choices

to customize their cell phones.

Devices will operate portably across dierent kinds o wireless networks such as mesh networks,

WiFi, and WiMax.

ThE TEchNOlOgIcAl FOUNDATION FOr AN OPEN MObIlE EcOsysTEM 1


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Wi-Fi

Wi-Fis commercial success over the last decade has occurred almost entirely

outside the legacy rameworks governing wireless communications. Operat-

ing in an unlicensed microwave band reserved or experimental use, Wi-Fi is a

powerul demonstration o the innovation possible when new players rom theinormation technology sector are permitted to aggressively enter the wireless

hardware market. Traditionally viewed as the junk spectrum, 2.4 Ghz is now the

band most consumers associate with exible, ree, and high-perormance wire-

less communication.

Over the next decade, we will increasingly look back at Wi-Fi as a sort o quaint

ancestor o a multitude o highly-optimized wireless species, each occupying

a portion o a widening pie o the unlicensed spectrum made available through

a broad political coalition o ree marketers and commons activists. These will

include:

New avors o Wi-Fi, such as 802.11n coupled with MIMO, which use smart

antennas to exploit multi-path propagation o microwave signals to increase

bandwidth.

ZigBee, a low-bandwidth, very low-power protocol optimized or sensors.

UltraWideband, a very high-bandwidth LAN protocol designed to operate in a

light, non-interering method on existing licensed requencies.

Wi-Max, a wide-area version o Wi-Fi, originally intended to be unlicensed, but

near-term deployments are mostly limited to licensed use. A number o carriers

worldwide are deploying wireless networks.

Moie Me Netwok

Today, almost all wireless networks are merely edge extensions o large, legacy

wired inrastructures that aggregate and transport trafc along fber backbones.

On the other hand, mobile mesh networks use mobile devices or base stations

rather than fxed ones, thus reducing dependence on wired inrastructure.

Rather than extensive cabling to connect every wireless node to the wired back-

bone, some nodes serve as relay stations or more outlying nodes, working like

a digital bucket brigade.This technology is used in military applications to sup-

port highly mobile troops, but consumer mobile meshes took a big leap orward

with the introduction o One Laptop Per Childs XO laptop, which incorporates

mobile mesh technology.

Over the next decade, mobile mesh technology will

evolve, driven by two actors. First, since the costs oupgrading inrastructure can be moved to the de-

vice rather than absorbed in network inrastructure

upgrades, mesh technology is especially suited to a

ast-changing wireless technology arena. Second, mo-

bile meshes are ideally suited to vehicles, which are

becoming increasingly important nodes in personal

media and communications ecologies.


Intenationa spotit:Te batte Ovestandad in cina

The Chinese government has

committed itsel to setting its own

standards or mobile technology to

ensure that Chinese companies can

make more proft than international

competitors, control large markets,

and avoid costly licensing ees. Most

experts agree that, apart rom sup-

porting the industry, the Chinese

government wants to have a say in

setting global standards so it can

embed monitoring technology.

Currently China has two major 2G

wireless networks: China Mobiles

GSM network and China Unicom,

which supports both GSM and CDMA

technology. China has set its own

new TD-SCMA standard or 3G wire-

less requiring handsets to have mul-

timode chipsets to support multiple

standards.

The Chinese government has also

battled with international organi-

zations concerning wireless LANstandards. The International Orga-

nization o Standardization rejected

the Chinese LAN standard, WAPI, in

2006 ater the Chinese government

reused to allow experts access to

evaluate their proprietary encryption

scheme. The international organiza-

tion believed that the encryption

scheme was a back door the govern-

ment let open or the purposes o

surveillance.

Regardless, two Chinese wireless net-work integrators recently agreed to

use WAPI as their preerred standard.

Once China implements WAPI tech-

nology at a large scale, a new Chinese

brand o communication technolo-

gies will emerge that, over time, can

become competitive and pose seri-

ous challenges to other international

standards like WiFi and WiMax.


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Foeat

The ollowing are orecasts which we have shown in the orm o short videos. These videos bring the or-

casts, our visions o the uture, to lie. Below are descriptions o each. You can view them at www.it.org.

Movin to

The power o a mobile device in everyones pocket will lead to increased global interaction in commu-

nities o all kinds: aith, culture, politics, diasporas, and more. This amplifcation o networks will provide

people and communities with increasingly aordable presence and connectivity. A look at the lives

o three dierent mobile individuals helps give us some perspective on how amplifed networks are

improving the quality o peoples lives.

As the cost o mobile connectivity and devices continues to decline, the mobile phone will becomes an

indispensible social tool or those at the bottom o the pyramid. The mobile phone will emerge as an im-

portant source o identity with the mobile number acting like a social security number or the poor across

the globe. It will also provide opportunities to those at the bottom o the pyramid to participate in local,

regional and global economy through mobile banking, mobile health and other commercial transactions.


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Aout te

Tenoo hoizon PoamThe Technology Horizons Program combines a deep understanding o technology and societal orces

to identiy and evaluate discontinuities and innovations in the next three to ten years. Our approach

to technology orecasting is uniquewe put people at the center o our orecasts. Understanding

humans as consumers, workers, householders, and community members allows IFTF to help compa-

nies look beyond technical easibility to identiy the value in new technologies, orecast adoption and

diusion patterns, and discover new market opportunities and threats.

Te Intitute o te Futue

The Institute or the Future is an independent, nonproft strategic research group with 40 years o

orecasting experience. The core o our work is identiying emerging trends and discontinuities that

will transorm global society and the global marketplace. We provide our members with insights

into business strategy, design process, innovation, and social dilemmas. Our research generates the

oresight needed to create insights that lead to action. Our research spans a broad territory o deeply

transormative trends, rom health and health care to technology, the workplace, and human identity.

The Institute or the Future is located in Palo Alto, Caliornia.


www.iftf.org | 124 University Ave., 2nd Floor, Palo Alto, CA 94301 | 650.854.6322

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